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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Beimel Avoids Arbitrationizing
2008-02-01 13:51
by Jon Weisman

Joe Beimel and the Dodgers ducked the High Noon of salary arbitration this morning, the Dodgers just confirmed.

Ken Rosenthal of writes that the deal is for $1.925 million for 2008. Beimel had been requesting $2.15 million, while the Dodgers had submitted a figure of $1.7 million. I believe it's safe to say each laid down their guns in the same fashion.

Comments (145)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-02-01 13:54:17
1.   D4P
Nice to have Glass Joe back on board, I guess.
2008-02-01 13:56:16
2.   natepurcell
stick to your guns people!
2008-02-01 13:56:41
3.   fanerman
I'm happy to see him back. Mas o menos.
2008-02-01 13:57:11
4.   fanerman
BTW, cargill, if Juan Pierre OPS+'s 107, I won't complain so much about him starting in LF.
2008-02-01 13:59:32
5.   D4P
Dodger LFs in 2007:


Juan Pierre in 2007:


.293 vs. .277 gives Pierre the edge, right Ned...?

2008-02-01 14:00:38
6.   ibleedbloo
178 If anyone is headed out to 66ers games this year give me a shout. I had a friend in the box office last season who would get me the best seats. She will not be there this year, but you really don't need a hook up when there are usually just a handful of people in the place.

Sometimes I can get myself and a few friends into a suite if the right people are there. The view isn't really any better, but hot dogs and cracker jack is paid for.

2008-02-01 14:09:13
7.   trainwreck
My friend who hates the Lakers is so angry right now. He thinks they are going to win the West.
2008-02-01 14:10:42
8.   natepurcell
I still can't believe Lakers got Gasol.

This is crazy.

2008-02-01 14:11:47
9.   natepurcell
Odom doesn't even have to be a 3rd scorer when the Lakers are at full strength. He can play a cleanup game. Crashing the boards, slashing, intiating the offense, etc.
2008-02-01 14:14:54
10.   CanuckDodger
6 -- I think the 66'ers will have pretty interesting team this year. Something like this:


Javy Guerra
James Adkins
Tim Sexton
Josh Wall
Steve Johnson

Position Players:

Carlos Santana, C
Eduardo Perez, 1B
Adolfo Gonzalez, 2B
Josh Bell, 3B
Jaime Pedroza, SS
Ryan Rogowski, OF
Tommy Giles, OF
Jovany Rosario, OF
Matt Berezay, OF

Hard to say about bullpen arms, but Garrett White, Miguel Ramirez, and Jordan Pratt will probably be there. Maybe some relievers who did well in Ogden will be skipped past low A, like Chales Dasni, Paul Koss, and Given Kutz.

2008-02-01 14:18:06
11.   ToyCannon
Player I would look forward to seeing are Carlos Santana, Adolfo Gonzalez, Bell, and Pedroza. That way I can see with my own eyes why no one like Pedroza.
2008-02-01 14:18:18
12.   Humma Kavula
Given Kutz might be my favorite baseball name at the moment.
2008-02-01 14:20:33
13.   ToyCannon
The poor Gasol family. They 1st find out that their son has been traded to their other sons team only to find out the other son was part of the deal going back. It would be so much easier visiting from Spain to only have to go to one city.
2008-02-01 14:21:02
14.   ToyCannon
Better then Alberto Bastardo?
2008-02-01 14:26:10
15.   paranoidandroid
I'm happy to have Joe back happy. It seemed like such a small difference to waste time in a hearing. Nothing positive would have come out of the only player on the team being taking to arbitration.

Now we can focus on the team going forward entirely. I can't wait until Valentine's Day!

2008-02-01 14:26:28
16.   cargill06
anyone know anything about the santana situation? it's past the 2 PM "deadline"
2008-02-01 14:29:30
17.   silverwidow
2 hour extension per WFAN
2008-02-01 14:31:07
18.   bhsportsguy
BTW - Bob, any message you want me to pass along to Digger tomorrow night?
2008-02-01 14:33:25
19.   trainwreck
Tell him he was really good at Mother Christmas or whoever the heck he was in that play.

Sadly, the video does not seem to be on Youtube.

2008-02-01 14:34:56
20.   Eric Enders
17 I believe Santana was looking for an extension of longer than two hours. However, the good news is it will only cost the Mets $24,678.
2008-02-01 14:36:47
21.   Xeifrank
Wonder if there will be another Joe Beimel sighting on You Tube?

vr, Xei

2008-02-01 14:40:27
22.   paranoidandroid
18 Ask him if his son-in-law has anything left. I thought he'd be out of baseball ten years ago. Is Moyer on 'roids? You never know, Paul Byrd was juicing.
2008-02-01 14:44:49
23.   Penarol1916
I'm really hoping that Withrow pitches for the Loons this year. Last year, I barely missed seeing Kershaw pitch against the Kane County Cougars because my wife needed me to pick her up after her car got hit, I'm still bitter about that jerk who hit her.
2008-02-01 14:46:21
24.   Humma Kavula
23 How's your wife's ACL, or whatever it was she tore?

Is she back to kicking you in the crotch yet?

2008-02-01 14:49:04
25.   Jon Weisman
Wesley Snipes dodged the bullet.
2008-02-01 14:52:37
26.   Andrew Shimmin
Jurors that vote the wrong way in tax evasion cases should have to pick up the tab they let the shirker get away with evading. Or be deported. They should get to pick.
2008-02-01 14:54:40
27.   Andrew Shimmin
Jurors who vote. . .
2008-02-01 14:57:32
28.   Jon Weisman
27 - That would seem to raise the question of why we should have juries, then.
2008-02-01 15:02:29
29.   ToyCannon
Why let facts get in the way of a good rant.
2008-02-01 15:04:20
30.   Andrew Shimmin
28- It isn't always clear which way is wrong. In the cases where it's ambiguous, there shouldn't be punishment for the jurors. But Snipes wasn't arguing that he'd paid his taxes, he was taking the militia-nut line about taxes being unconstitutional. That's when it seems necessary to punish the panel of suckers.

They should at least forfeit their right to vote. And have children. I'd pull their drivers licenses, too, just because you know these are the kind of people who can't figure out what "Yeild" signs mean.

2008-02-01 15:04:40
31.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I've been thinking about the use of OPS as a measure of performance. It seems awfully crude to add two measures that are inherently dissimilar (I'm sure this has been thought of before). It seems like it would make more sense to add a player's standard deviation from the mean OBP to the standard deviation from mean SLG.

Has this already been done? It seems like that would create a more meaningful statistic, while still being much simpler than VORP, EQA, etc.

Does anybody know a convenient way to find out the mean and standard deviation for OBP and SLG?

2008-02-01 15:06:31
32.   ToyCannon
Having never seen a Yeild sign I would have no idea what to do.
2008-02-01 15:06:37
33.   Eric Enders
30 Well, I for one would do a double-take if I saw a "Yeild" sign. ;)
2008-02-01 15:07:27
34.   Eric Enders
Stupid seven-seconds-burning emoticon.
2008-02-01 15:09:36
35.   Jon Weisman
31 - OPS is meant to be quick and dirty, not the be-all and end-all. Anything involving standard deviation is something at another level.
2008-02-01 15:10:01
36.   Eric Enders
31 The more important flaw, it would seem, is that OBP, which many believe to be as much as three times more important than slugging, counts for only about 40% of the OPS stat (since SLGs are inherently higher numbers than OBPs).
2008-02-01 15:11:23
37.   Andrew Shimmin
This is why it's good that nobody has invented a way of murdering people over the internet. And why it's still too bad that I don't have a time machine.
2008-02-01 15:12:22
38.   Eric Enders
"This is why it's good that nobody has invented a way of murdering people over the internet."

Obviously somebody missed the last season of "Homicide."

2008-02-01 15:13:30
39.   D4P
I'm with Andrew. People are stupid.
2008-02-01 15:14:18
40.   fanerman
31 It really makes no sense but it's simple to calculate and correlates well with runs scored. So it's used.
2008-02-01 15:15:13
41.   Gen3Blue
About what I expected on Joe. I would have paid even more, realizing we have so few proven lefties. I also love his fanbase in the "country" on U-tube. A-men.
2008-02-01 15:17:33
42.   Eric Enders
41 I do hope Troy from West Virginia eventually finds his way over to DT.

Or perhaps he already has?

2008-02-01 15:17:50
43.   Marty
"This is why it's good that nobody has invented a way of murdering people over the internet."

Isn't Untraceable opening today?

2008-02-01 15:20:30
44.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
What is the argument for OBP being 3 times as important as SLG? I was trying to think about the intuition on this and it seemed ambiguous as to which one would be more important. In particular, when I thought of how inter-related the two are my brain started to hurt.
2008-02-01 15:22:37
45.   Eric Enders
45 I don't know what the mathematical basis for it is, but DePodesta was quoted as saying that in "Moneyball."

It does make intuitive sense to me, since one would think that by far the most important component of an offense is avoiding outs.

2008-02-01 15:24:34
46.   silverwidow
.360/.440/.800 OPS


.320/.480/.800 OPS

Of course, the first player is much better. That's why I tend to just look at OBP.

2008-02-01 15:25:25
47.   D4P
Setting aside whether it makes sense or is logical, I had always been under the impression that OBP had been found 3X more important than SLG in a statistical sense, meaning that the influence of OBP on Runs Scored was 3X larger than the influence of SLG.
2008-02-01 15:34:25
48.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I understand the argument that slugging tends to be higher. However, if you could have a player who was above average (say, by a standard deviation) in slugging vs. above average in OBP, is it clear who you would take? I tend to trust Depodesta, so maybe I'll have to check out Moneyball to see what he was talking about.

As long as that was taking into account multicollinearity, I suppose you could show that. I guess it comes down to how much faith you have in the guy running the statistics (which for me, is still where I'm at with VORP, EQA, etc.).

2008-02-01 15:44:21
49.   Andrew Shimmin
Using the Lahman database (newly updated), I calculate the standard deviation (for players with at least 100 ABs in 2007) for OBP was .0447; for SLG it was .0764. Which doesn't look completely ridiculous, so I think it might be close to right.
2008-02-01 15:44:45
50.   wronghanded
I think OBP relies more on teammates to manufacture runs in comparison to slugging. Am I wrong in assuming that? Granted the more you're on base, the more opportunities you have to score but it seems like extra-base hits give the individual a much better opportunity to be directly involved in the manufacturing of runs (they immediately put themselves in scoring position and likely drive in runs if a runner is on base).
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-02-01 15:55:51
51.   Xeifrank
According to "The Book - Tom Tango et al", one standard deviation of a player with an OBP skill of .330 would be (based on Number of Plate Appearances)

10 / .149
20 /.105
50 / .066
100 / .047
200 / .033
500 / .021
1000 / .015

vr, Xei

2008-02-01 15:57:21
52.   D4P
As long as that was taking into account multicollinearity

I've checked for multicollinearity in regression analyses predicting Runs/Game with OBP and SLG, and it's not a problem.

2008-02-01 15:59:58
53.   Xeifrank
AmazingAvenue says the Santana deal is done, except for the physical. To get the deal to work, the Mets had to take on Kwame Brown's expiring contract. :)
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 16:02:14
54.   D4P
And pay off Wesley Snipes's back taxes.
2008-02-01 16:05:49
55.   wronghanded
I did a little research using 2 OBP heavy guys in comparison to 2 SLG heavy guys, here's what I got:

Wade Boggs:
Career .415 OBP, .443 SLG
.62 runs scored per game
.42 RBI per game
1.02 runs manufactured a game

Tony Gwynn:
Career .388 OBP, .459 SLG
.57 runs scored per game
.47 RBI per game
1.04 runs manufactured per game

Andre Dawson:
Career .323 OBP, .482 SLG
.52 runs scored per game
.61 RBI per game
1.13 runs manufactured per game

Reggie Jackson:
Career .356 OBP, .490 SLG
.55 runs scored per game
.60 RBI per game
1.15 runs manufactured per game

2008-02-01 16:09:11
56.   D4P
Among the many problems with your little research project is that Boggs and Gwynn were leadoff hitters (weren't they?), while Dawson and Jackson hit in the middle of the lineup. This clearly has significant implications for RBI opportunities, and thus RBI per game.
2008-02-01 16:10:06
57.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
Avoiding outs certainly leads to runs, but in the end, the goal is to score runs, not just to avoid outs. Put another way, over the course of a season, I would think that most teams would have made the same number of outs, yet they differ widely on runs scored (am I thinking about this wrong?)

This seems like a question for Xeifrank's simulator (does it take a lot of work to run that thing?). I think it would be interesting to run simulations, holding the rest of the lineup constant, but making tradeoffs for a particular players OBP/slugging mix.

Of course, it comes down to faith in Xeifrank's modeling/programming. I believe!

2008-02-01 16:11:59
58.   bhsportsguy
56 I don't Gwynn was a leadoff guy for any significant amount of time.
2008-02-01 16:12:03
59.   Eric Enders
55 It's an interesting comparison, but ultimately a meaningless one since the base stats used are runs scored and RBI.
2008-02-01 16:12:38
60.   wronghanded
56 Conversely wouldn't both Gwynn and Boggs also be in a better position to score runs with the 2,3,4,5 guys hitting behind them (by the way, I'm not sure but I think they both hit 2). I'm not trying to say that SLG is more important than OBP, I just doubt that OBP is 3x as valuable as SLG.
2008-02-01 16:15:04
61.   Eric Enders
"Put another way, over the course of a season, I would think that most teams would have made the same number of outs, yet they differ widely on runs scored (am I thinking about this wrong?)"

Yes, I think you are. Of course teams are going to make the same number of outs, since there are three outs in an inning and nine innings in a game. The thing that matters is how many non-out plate appearances you get in between all those outs. Right?

2008-02-01 16:17:22
62.   Andrew Shimmin
Gwynn had 512 career leadoff PAs. Most (5417) of his PAs came in the three spot, though 3962 came in the second spot.
2008-02-01 16:19:15
63.   Andrew Shimmin
A plurality (4361) of Boggs's PAs came in the leadoff spot, but he also got 2945 in the second spot, and 2327 in the third.
2008-02-01 16:19:59
64.   wronghanded
Granted, I know my research was flawed because run and RBI totals are largely dependant upon teammates, I was simply trying to illustrate that it's unlikely that OBP is 3x as valuable as SLG in relation to run manufacturing.
2008-02-01 16:20:58
65.   wronghanded
62 63 Thanks for the PA totals
2008-02-01 16:21:00
66.   Xeifrank
57. I can do that. As far as my programming and modelling skills go... :) Won't get to it til later though.

Tango has the best OPS weighting as 1.73*OBP + SLG

Tango Article:

vr, Xei

2008-02-01 16:23:44
67.   fanerman
I wonder how the relative importance of OBP and SLG varies with the values of OBP and SLG. ie, whether OBP becomes more important (relative to slugging) the higher it is.
2008-02-01 16:23:49
68.   Andrew Shimmin
65- Sure. I stole them from The pull down menu called Splits, at the top of each player's card, breaks down all the numbers like that, either by year, or for a whole career.
2008-02-01 16:26:39
69.   wronghanded
68 cool, I recently discovered the awesomeness of, kinda still a rookie though in terms of getting abstract totals.
2008-02-01 16:28:15
70.   wronghanded
66 that number at first glance is more believable for me.
2008-02-01 16:30:31
71.   D4P
In all of the analyses I've done, OBP has never been as high as 3X as important as SLG.
2008-02-01 16:33:12
72.   bhsportsguy
I wouldn't expect any gifts from Juan Pierre but.....

"I've also, in this space and on TV, been pointedly critical of Kobe Bryant. Yet, I answered the doorbell Wednesday and there were flowers and balloons from Kobe wishing me a quick return to my duties. I hope I have the grace to extend myself to someone who might offer a public rebuke of my work."

"The lesson learned is probably that a bad pass on third and 12, a missed jump shot at the buzzer or even a prolonged disagreement with a teammate doesn't make that the dominant theme of a man's life. It's not like I won't make a critical observation about Kobe in the playoffs, if necessary, just that such comments ought to be expressed in context and not cavalierly used to form larger judgments about a person's life. At the very least there ought to be an acknowledgment of a sense of compassion and humanity that aren't to be taken for granted."

2008-02-01 16:33:35
73.   wronghanded
71 What kind of model have you used while conducting your analyses?
2008-02-01 16:33:36
74.   Xeifrank
71. It isn't, why is it even in question?
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 16:34:31
75.   Bob Timmermann
Tell Digger to

(rule 1 violation)

and then

(rule 1 violation)

and then

(rule 1 violation)

and then

(rule 8 violation)

and finally tell him that only Digger could make Danny Ainge into an heroic figure.

And then drop in 5 to 7 more (rule 1 violations).

2008-02-01 16:39:55
76.   Eric Enders
Okay, let's look at two players. Joe Mauer had an .808 OPS this year and Jermaine Dye an .803. Fairly similar, right? Mauer was OBP-heavy at .382/.426, while Dye was SLG-heavy at .317/.486.

According to the Runs Created formula, Dye created .134 runs per plate appearance, while Mauer created .144. That's a fairly big difference -- about seven runs over the course of a full season, or one extra win for the team that has Mauer. (None of this takes position into account; we're just talking about their offense.)

In Win Shares, the disparity is even more evident, with Mauer being credited with 13.3 batting Win Shares to Dye's 9.9, even though Dye had 100 more plate appearances. (Part of Mauer's boost here, but not all of it, is because Win Shares are ballpark adjusted while RC are not, and Mauer plays in a better pitchers' park.)

If EQA is your stat, Mauer's at .284 and Dye .262.

2008-02-01 16:41:10
77.   D4P
I usually just use linear regression, with Runs/Game as the dependent variable and OBP and SLG as independent variables.
2008-02-01 17:06:00
78.   wronghanded
76 I like the breakdown better with PAs and of course in your example the OBP guy produced more runs (which may be the case in the majority of comparisons). I agree that OBP is stronger contributor to runs scored than SLG but I don't think it's as 1 sided as many people on this site believe. I know that many people don't believe in a "clutch" factor for run production, I kind of disagree in the sense that many big league hitters change their approach at the plate depending on the situation (leading-off, RISP, RISP with less than 2 outs etc.) and that some hit more productively with the different approaches. In the case of lower OBP guys (especially the ones with power), I think several of them cut down on their swings and try to have more productive PAs when the situation calls for it. That is why IMO, run production comes down to the individual more than "type" of hitter they are. I'm not trying to stir the pot here, I just think that many times people get wrapped up in the numbers and don't factor things in from a broader scope.

77 That is an interesting approach, I think I might start tinkering with that when I evaluate players (if you don't mind).

2008-02-01 17:07:22
79.   D4P
I don't have any kind of patent on it...
2008-02-01 17:10:37
80.   wronghanded
79 lol, I'll start calling it my D4P% just to give credit where credit is due.
2008-02-01 17:14:05
81.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I found this quote while looking up the formula for Runs Created on Wikipedia:
"With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many runs have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCovey hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?"

I think Bill James does a better job of explaining what I was trying to say regarding avoiding outs and the objective of an offense. Whether getting on base (avoiding outs) is the best way to score runs, I think, is the basis of the discussion over the last several posts. It certainly looks like OBP dominates SLG, but I still don't think it should be obvious why.

2008-02-01 17:16:44
82.   D4P
his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?

Actually, it was his job to hit doubles, singles, triples, draw walks, and hit homeruns.

2008-02-01 17:20:02
83.   Spotted Owl
Mad Mac and D4P. From the last thread, I know DJ Graham ,went to highschool with him and my daughter currently goes to Page Elementary.

Graduated Springfield High Class of 87 and the University Of Oregn in 92.

Mad Mac ,when were you in school?

2008-02-01 17:20:13
84.   wronghanded
82 Unless they thought he was the master of HBP and the seldomly used CI :)
2008-02-01 17:26:04
85.   D4P
UofO accepts Springfield grads...?
2008-02-01 17:34:16
86.   Spotted Owl
"85" - Nice.... I had to take an oath to only wear shows with swooshes on them and promise to yell vulgarities to any state basketball stars that dare to go to school in Westwood. Dave, or was it Dan?, Immel was the first to suffer the wrath before we were able to turn are wrath on Stan Love's kid.

Actually I thought the Love treatment was pretty disgraceful. Was that a big deal in the papers down there?

2008-02-01 17:37:15
87.   D4P
Was that a big deal in the papers down there?

Down where?

2008-02-01 18:01:40
88.   ToyCannon
D4P is our SouthEastern rep.

Like the moniker.

2008-02-01 18:02:20
89.   Jason in Canada
8 Apparently we got Gasol and about 10,000,000 dramatic new Spaniard Laker fans as well.

Beinvenidos a todos.

2008-02-01 18:57:11
90.   Gen3Blue
Xei, if you are still around, and I wouldn't blame you for disappearing at all,
I tried in a recent thread to ask if your simulations (JP vs. Either) took throwing to keep runners from advancing, and overall defense into account. Still curious to find out. OAO Blu.
2008-02-01 19:04:49
91.   Gen3Blue
Anyone from Homer Simpsons home town is allright with me.
2008-02-01 19:06:33
92.   Ricardo
89. Same thing with happened with Andruw Jones, the antilleans became dodger fans.
2008-02-01 19:18:03
93.   Bob Timmermann
Only a matter of time before someone makes an inappropriate comparison between the Antillean community and another group.

Those were fun times last year.

2008-02-01 19:30:58
94.   Ricardo
About Beimel, I believe that Troy is very happy.
2008-02-01 19:35:42
95.   overkill94
90 I think he explained that since no one defensive metric was preferred, he had a hard time factoring defense into the whole thing. I believe he figured you could add a few more runs (or wins, whatever total he was using) to Ethier's total to account for the defense.
2008-02-01 19:44:17
96.   Ricardo
89.Oh I forgot that same thing happens here!:P The Los Angeles Lakers is the most popular team but there are lots of Phoenix Suns fans too.
2008-02-01 20:03:08
97.   Jon Weisman
"That's like putting your whole mouth right in the dip!"

2008-02-01 20:09:45
98.   Sam DC
I've checked for multicollinearity in regression analyses predicting Runs/Game with OBP and SLG, and it's not a problem.

I dunno, that sort of feels like one of those lines just dropped into some empty space in Buckaroo Banzai and not a real comment.

2008-02-01 20:10:27
99.   Sam DC
And what's that watermelon doing here?
2008-02-01 20:12:53
100.   Eric Stephen
Also from that article:

"I like to say it's like kissing everybody at the party -- if you're double dipping, you're putting some of your bacteria in that dip,"

That sounds way more fun.

I prefer to be blissfully ignorant on most matters involving bacteria and microbes and whatnot. It's like finding out the actual contents of a hot dog -- that would just ruin the enjoyment!

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-02-01 20:19:35
101.   berkowit28
The 1.925 mil Beimel and the Dodgers accepted is precisely half way between their two asking amounts of 2.15 and 1.7. mil. Just like the other arbitration avoidance - Proctor. Someone said here earlier that teams don't like to meet at the halfway point like this as it encourages players to ask for twice as much as they'd really like. That could still be true and account for the agreement at the last minute, like this (a few days, rather).

Personally, I'd guess that Beimel was holding out for the round-figure number of 2 mil, until he agreed today to avoid arbitration that might get him only 1.7 mil, when the Dodgers wouldn't go above that. (He should have asked for 2.3 mil. But maybe he has to ask first, before they offer their figure.) Just guessing, though.

2008-02-01 20:22:14
102.   Eric Stephen
Those easily attainable incentives probably helped get the deal done too. If Beimel appears in 60 games (which he has done in each of the past two years), he is over the $2m mark.
2008-02-01 20:28:39
103.   Gen3Blue
95 OK-thanks-that is about what I thought. some site, maybe BP or THT had quite a study of players advancing on arms and its offensive effect. I believe it would add a few victories for Ethier, no matter which stat was used. Particularly because of the way Xei presented the stats on the margin of error on the offensive part, I can't see how Torre could be blind to this huge effect.
2008-02-01 20:30:46
104.   Bluebleeder87
Beimels ERA the last 3 years:

3.27 - D-Rays
2.96 - Dodgers
3.88 - Dodgers

I'm guessing he'll be around 3.50, he's a nice story so I'm glad the Dodgers have him around.

2008-02-01 20:35:32
105.   Bluebleeder87
Nate or Canuck, what are reasonable projection #'s for Billingsley next year?
2008-02-01 20:39:25
106.   Eric Stephen
ZIPS predicts a 4.00 ERA for Billingsley this season, while CHONE projects a 3.92 ERA.
2008-02-01 20:43:35
107.   Gen3Blue
105 I don't have specific projections, but I remember I was brought down because the only projections I could find in the local bookstore( it might have been Bill James), had Lowe, Penny and Bills, with only two more victoties than losses. I thought it was bull.
2008-02-01 20:44:15
108.   CanuckDodger
105 -- For Billingsley in 2008, the only things I am comfortable predicting is that his ERA will be lower than 4.00 and he won't reach 200 innings. Outside of that, who knows.
2008-02-01 20:47:43
109.   Bluebleeder87
Thanks Eric. Don't hate me for agreeing with those #'s but I think there spot on, hopefully he proves those #'s incorrect.
2008-02-01 20:48:24
110.   Andrew Shimmin
108- You think he'll be hurt?
2008-02-01 20:53:22
111.   Eric Stephen
I'm definitely on board with the sub-4.00 ERA for Billingsley. I have a feeling he will be better than Dan Haren this year.
2008-02-01 21:02:01
112.   Bluebleeder87
I'm with Eric & Canuck with the CHONE projection as well.
2008-02-01 21:03:56
113.   Xeifrank
90. I did answer it, post #95 pretty much summed up what I said. There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement from the great sabermetric minds on what defensive metric is the best (or least flawed). Defense is difficult to model, I don't want to add subjectivity if at all possible. I suppose I could do a decent job of modelling outfield arm strength, but I don't... so like #95 said you could dock Pierre a little extra from the 3.24 wins (standard error of 1.62 wins). Someone also posted something in the thread earlier asking me to compare that output of two different lineups changing the OPS composition of one of the players (high obp, low slg vs low obp, high slg). I will see if I can come up with anything. vr, Xei
2008-02-01 21:09:13
114.   Eric Stephen
Chad might not have to be hurt to accumulate less than 200 IP. Last season, he pitched 112 IP in 20 starts, an average of 5.6 IP/start.

Even if you remove his first two starts -- when he was building his arm strength after 2.5 months in the bullpen -- his average was 6.24 IP per start, a clip at which it would take 32 starts to achieve 200 IP.

Also, his IP totals for the last 4 years:
2004: 134 IP
2005: 146 IP
2006: 161 IP
2007: 147 IP

So maybe the Dodgers skip a start or two here and there to keep his arm fresh, and he racks up 180 IP instead of 200.

2008-02-01 21:17:59
115.   Marty
Eric, does that include minors and majors innings each year?
2008-02-01 21:19:57
116.   Eric Stephen
Yep, both minors and majors are included.
2008-02-01 21:20:44
117.   Marty
Wow, thats not a lot of innings. Thats great.
2008-02-01 21:35:56
118.   Jon Weisman
Chad Billingsley will go 17-9 with an ERA of 2.88. There, I said it. And we'll fall in love with him like a girl in a flowing white gown bounding across a springtime meadow.
2008-02-01 21:42:05
119.   overkill94
Here's the projection I gave on a fantasy baseball message board for Billingsley:

190 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 175 K's, 60 BB's, 15 W's

2008-02-01 21:42:37
120.   Xeifrank
118. If that ERA is correct, then I will watch an episode of Lost or Desperate Housewives, whichever show ya'll are drueling over next October. vr, Xei
2008-02-01 21:43:45
121.   Xeifrank
Tango Tiger has a poll and discussion as to how many plate appearances Juan Pierre has left in his MLB career. Feel free to place your vote.
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 21:46:48
122.   Andrew Shimmin
Safe For Work/Home/Dental Offices? Dinosaur Outhouses? Dominican Orphanages?
2008-02-01 21:46:54
123.   Xeifrank
121. In particular I like this comment.
"The monetary mistake of Pierre is small compared to the mistake they will be making if they play him in left field everyday, and keep either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp on the bench.

That will cost them 3-4 wins. I've said before that Joe Torre isn't that stupid, but not everyone agrees with me. I guess we'll find out on opening day."

My 3.24 fits right in there. :)
vr, Xei

2008-02-01 21:47:33
124.   Xeifrank
122. Hey, you got it on the first try!!! :)
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 21:47:49
125.   Eric Stephen
Since 2008 will be Billingsley's age 23 season (he turns 24 on July 29), here are some notes:

The top 23 year old pitchers in LA Dodger history:

I really like that list, and sometimes I forget how good Ismael was. Incidentally, a 2.88 ERA last year would have been good enough for a 159 ERA+, which would be tops on the list above. :)

Here is a list of most wins by a 23 year old LA Dodger:

The only 3 with 15+ wins:
Ramon - 17 (who won 20 games the previous year)
Sutcliffe - 17 (ROY)
Drysdale - 15 (who also won 17 games as both a 20 and 22 year old)

2008-02-01 21:49:43
126.   Eric Stephen
I voted for 2000-2499 PA in that poll.
2008-02-01 21:57:39
127.   Xeifrank
126. Hey, same as me. What did you have for dinner tonight?
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 21:59:20
128.   Andrew Shimmin
Xei had BBQ and M&Ms.
2008-02-01 21:59:31
129.   Eric Stephen
Fighting a cold, so I had some chicken noodle soup from our good friends at Chunky Soup.
2008-02-01 22:03:29
130.   Xeifrank
Actually, I had pork chops and applesauce... well, actually my simulator cooked me up a nice bowl of spicy noodles. The M&Ms sound good though.
vr, Xei
2008-02-01 22:23:57
131.   Jon Weisman
"pork chops and applesauce."

If only Xeifrank were a Brady Bunch fan...

2008-02-01 22:24:47
132.   Eric Enders
118 Hmmm... so it looks like Chad is going to get some pretty lousy run support.
2008-02-01 22:36:44
133.   Jon Weisman
Extraordinary Friday Night Lights tonight. I've got a chat thread at Season Pass if anyone else saw it.

2008-02-01 22:37:24
134.   fanerman
118 Careful Jon, Chad's a married man!
2008-02-01 22:45:06
135.   caseybarker
97-10,000 bacteria is nothing.
2008-02-02 02:03:59
136.   overkill94
131 That sounds swell?
2008-02-02 06:23:26
137.   Daniel Zappala
131 I still insist on applesauce with my pork chops because of that darn episode!
2008-02-02 07:26:25
138.   Brent Knapp
Anyone very familiar with Holman Stadium?
I have Section 11, Row 1, Seats 6-7 and I wanted to know if those seats are behind the backstop netting or not. I have a feeling they are right around the point where the netting stops, or begins, depending on your perspective.
2008-02-02 07:52:29
139.   Jacob L
138 I don't know, but I've also been trying to make people jealous about my Vero trip by dropping those type of comments. No one has taken the bait. Assuming you got the 3/9-3/12 mini plan, I'll see you there.

On a related note, a reminder to everyone that Coliseum game tickets go on sale today at 10.

2008-02-02 08:10:23
140.   Brent Knapp
I booked my trip for March 15-21 because of spring break before any of the China talk had come about. Originally it sounded like the Dodgers would already be gone by the time I got there, but it now ends up I am there for the game on the 17th, maybe the last Dodger game there ever. I got lucky on that one. All spring training tix are on sale now.
2008-02-02 08:12:43
141.   Eric Stephen
Brent, take a look at this picture:

It looks like the netting ends in between section 12 and section 11, judging from the seating chart on

2008-02-02 08:23:03
142.   Bluebleeder87
Thanks for the feed back on Billingsley guys.
2008-02-02 08:24:49
143.   Eric Stephen
The Gasol trade was really, really great for the Lakers. It was such a shocking pleasant surprise yesterday.

Per Marc Stein at, only 12 teams since the NBA/ABA merger have had a road trip as long as 9 games. Both the Lakers and Spurs are on 9-game trips right now.

Only 4 teams have had a winning record on such a long trip:
-2003 Spurs: 8-1 (finished 60-22; won championship)
-1993 Bulls: 6-3 (finished 57-25; won championship)
-2002 Jazz: 6-3 (finished 44-38; 8th seed)
-1977 Sonics: 6-4 (finished 40-42; missed playoffs)

I was worried at the start of the trip for the Lakers, but the Gasol addition has re-energized my enthusiasm. Then, looking at the remainder of the trip, I will be shocked if the Lakers don't have a winning record on the trip (actually, anything under 6-3 would be a disappointment). Here's the remaining trip:

Sun - Wizards (24-21)
Tues - Nets (20-26)
Wed - Hawks (18-24)
Fri - Magic (30-18)
2/10 - Heat (9-36!)
2/11 - Bobcats (18-29)
2/13 - T-Wolves (10-36)

2008-02-02 08:29:33
144.   Jon Weisman
2008-02-02 08:30:31
145.   Brent Knapp
143 Thanks eric, that is a very helpful picture. I lucked out with my tickets. Anyone else going to Vero for their last game?

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