Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Dodger Thoughts

02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Saito, Broxton and Beimel Try To Buck Trend
2008-02-11 09:26
by Jon Weisman

It's going to be very interesting to see whether the Dodgers can get good years out of relief pitchers Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton and Joe Beimel in 2008, after each performed well in 2006 and 2007. With the exception of Eric Gagne, the team arguably has not gotten three consecutive quality seasons from a relief pitcher this decade.

This dovetails with my conclusion that with only scattered exceptions, relief pitcher excellence does not repeat from year to year.

For that report, I used the Adjusted Runs Prevented statistic from Baseball Prospectus. Today, I tried a different approach. I used BP's WXRL, which the site defines as "expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters."

What follows below is a chart of WXRL per nine innings pitched. I did not include pitchers who started a significant number of games in a given season. Note that some of the players on this list pitched very few innings, including Gagne in 2005 and 2006.

Terry Adams0.21
Victor Alvarez-0.01
Danys Baez-0.01
Joe Beimel0.290.31
Yhency Brazoban-1.99-
Troy Brohawn0.21
Jonathan Broxton0.310.27-0.20
Buddy Carlyle-0.28
Giovanni Carrara-
Lance Carter-0.03
Steve Colyer0.05
Elmer Dessens0.330.05-0.15
Darren Dreifort0.19
Brian Falkenborg-0.07
Mike Fetters0.170.44
Eric Gagne0.450.730.871.010.90
Tim Hamulack-0.13
Roberto Hernandez-0.35
Matt Herges0.250.21
D.J. Houlton0.07
Eric Hull0.00
Masao Kida0.06-0.00
Jonathan Meloan-0.10
Tom Martin-0.080.39
Onan Masaoka0.10
Alan Mills-0.10
Guillermo Mota0.420.350.09
Terry Mulholland-0.080.11
Rodney Myers0.080.08
Jose Nunez-0.30
Gregg Olson-0.06-0.16
Jesse Orosco0.31-0.33
Franquelis Osoria0.110.16
Antonio Osuna0.07
Scott Proctor0.21
Paul Quantrill0.350.21
Al Reyes-0.170.43
Takashi Saito0.810.63
Duaner Sanchez0.190.11
Steve Schmoll0.05
Jeff Shaw0.490.33
Paul Shuey0.300.08
Rudy Seanez0.09
Scott Stewart-0.11
Mike Trombley-0.41
Chin-Hui Tsao0.22
Mike Venafro-0.33
Jeff Williams-0.020.04-0.36
Kelly Wunsch0.23

By this measure, here are the Dodgers' best multi-season relievers of the decade (without taking into account innings pitched):

1) Eric Gagne (0.87, 1.01, 0.90)
2) Takashi Saito (0.81, 0.63)
3) Jeff Shaw (0.49, 0.33)
4) Guillermo Mota (0.42, 0.35)
5) Joe Beimel (0.29, 0.31)
6) Jonathan Broxton (0.31, 0.27)
7) Paul Quantrill (0.35, 0.21)
8) Mike Fetters (0.17 0.44)
9) Matt Herges (0.25, 0.21)
10) Giovanni Carrara (0.13, 0.28)
11) Paul Shuey (0.30, 0.08)
12) Yhency Brazoban (0.11, 0.26)

Comments (240)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-02-11 11:02:42
1.   underdog
This is really useful.

I'm probably reading this totally wrong, but wouldn't then Mike Fetters be in the top 12, too? Or am I looking at that wrong? Granted, it's Mike Fetters, but ...

Mike Trombley = desperation time

2008-02-11 11:05:47
2.   JoeyP
Its difficult to accept a stat that says Joe Beimel is a better reliever than Jonathan Broxton.
2008-02-11 11:06:49
3.   Eric Stephen
For some reason I have no recollection of Gregg Olson nor Rodney Myers as Dodgers.

I can, however, vividly remember Olson's 1989 Donruss rookie card with the Orioles:

2008-02-11 11:07:18
4.   underdog
2 Yeah, but on the other hand, Beimel's been really consistent whereas, for the most part Broxton has too - but also had a couple of bad stretches including late last season. I'd rather go into the future with Broxton but it's hard to argue that he's been more consistent than Beimel, is it?
2008-02-11 11:08:48
5.   still bevens
2008-02-11 11:14:05
6.   Andrew Shimmin
Big collapses hurt more, in WX stats, since you're Odalising a low leverage situation. Setting the opposing team down in order when you're up by five in the eighth inning is worth very little. Letting them score eight runs costs a whole lot. With ERA, or it's derivatives, going eight shutdowns to one blowup makes you look good. With WX numbers, that one blowup can be worth much more than the eight shutdowns.
2008-02-11 11:14:10
7.   Xeifrank
vs LHB = Great
vs RHB = Not So Great

His greatest strength is his tendancy to not give up too many HRs.

vr, Xei

2008-02-11 11:15:43
8.   Jon Weisman
1 - Yeah, you're right about Fetters.

2 - I think usage is a big factor. Broxton is certainly more impressive than Beimel, and certainly has a brighter future.

2008-02-11 11:17:41
9.   MC Safety
Between Gagne and Carrara we saw some awesome curve balls. Those guys were buckling knees with the best of em.
2008-02-11 11:17:55
10.   Jon Weisman
1 - Although Fetters didn't pitch all that many innings.
2008-02-11 11:18:08
11.   bhsportsguy
Baseball America already has a mock draft up for the 2008 Draft.

Here are some of the players in the range for the Dodgers first round pick (15)

13. Aaron Hicks, of/rhp, Wilson HS, Long Beach
Owns a plus fastball and curveball, but he may have more value as a speedy center fielder.

14. Harold Martinez, 3b, Braddock HS, Miami
Currently a shortstop, he has Gold Glove potential as a third baseman and can do everything but run.

15. Buster Posey, c, Florida State
Made a smooth transition from shortstop to catcher as a sophomore, makes consistent contact as a hitter.

16. Ryan Perry, rhp, Arizona
Put two mediocre seasons behind him by blowing away Cape hitters with 94-98 mph heat.

17. Shooter Hunt, rhp, Tulane
Can move up this list if he learns to trust his plus fastball-slider combo and throw more strikes.

18. Jacob Thompson, rhp, Virginia
Has very good command of solid stuff, similar to 2007 Athletics first-rounder Justin Simmons.

19. Dennis Raben, of, Miami
His big-time power makes him stand out easily among lackluster college outfield crop.

20. Alex Meyer, rhp, Greensburg (Ind.) HS
Already touches 96 mph and has a lot of projection remaining in his 6-foot-7, 200-pound frame.

2008-02-11 11:19:52
12.   Jon Weisman
Anyway, I'm not saying this stat is the be-all and end-all. But I think it illustrates the main point fairly well.
2008-02-11 11:21:18
13.   still bevens
11 Where are the Texas high school pitchers?
2008-02-11 11:23:13
14.   Eric Stephen
I would love to have a Dodger named Shooter.

And Grizzly Adams did have a beard.

2008-02-11 11:31:26
15.   bhsportsguy
13 3 out of the 5 players selected first (all high school players) by the Dodgers in the first round were Texas high school players (Loney, Kershaw, Withrow), the other two came from Ohio and Missouri, respectively.
2008-02-11 11:34:18
16.   Eric Stephen
I love that there is a town named Defiance, OH.
2008-02-11 11:35:35
17.   Brian Y
I just wonder if MLB will ever allow teams to trade picks in the draft. That makes it much more exciting. It would also help the competitive balance in my mind. Trading the #1 Pick for a major leaguer and a lower pick would be one of those things I would love to see and it would keep my interest on the prospects involved.
2008-02-11 11:37:44
18.   Jon Weisman
Padres team health report:

2008-02-11 11:39:17
19.   bhsportsguy
Baseball Analysts (Rich Lederer) is doing a list of the best young players (20-25 years old as of 6/30/08).

For the 25 year olds, Russell Martin is 6th, 24 year olds, James Loney is 14th.

Broxton, Hu and LaRoche are on the honorable mention list.

Tomorrow, he ranks the 23 and 22 year olds. Chad Billingsley and Matt Kemp should rank pretty high.

2008-02-11 11:39:42
20.   ToyCannon
It would be curious to look at BA's pre 2007 draft and compare it to the real draft to see if it means jack or if predicting what Junior HS pitchers are going to do in their senior year has any merit.
2008-02-11 11:40:13
21.   natepurcell

There is also a band named Defiance, OH

2008-02-11 11:40:16
22.   Eric Stephen
I don't have premium access to Baseball Prospectus, but I would imagine there are a ton of red and yellow lights in that report.
2008-02-11 11:43:10
23.   Xeifrank
17. To me it would only be exciting to trade draft picks if the players were truly drafted only based off of talent, not with such a consideration to whether or not they could be signed. Something similar to the NBA. When you have some teams willing and some teams unwilling to follow the slotting system trading draft picks loses it's luster for me.
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 11:45:14
24.   regfairfield
23 That's why it would help. A team that isn't willing to spend money on the draft can trade down, so at least they'll get something for their pick instead of just handing it to the Tigers, Red Sox, or Yankees.
2008-02-11 11:59:07
25.   ToyCannon
Not really. Edmonds, Giles, Wolf, and Prior got the reds.
2008-02-11 12:00:44
26.   Eric Stephen
That's who I would have guessed. Did TCY get a yellow?
2008-02-11 12:03:01
27.   Xeifrank
24. in that scenario I am not sure there is much incentive for the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox to make that trade knowing top players are likely to slip down in the draft. If you are talking about trading the rights to a player after he was drafted, that's another thing.

vr, Xei

2008-02-11 12:03:18
28.   regfairfield
26 Yeah, along with Kouzmanoff, Greene, Hairston, and Hoffman.
2008-02-11 12:05:35
29.   regfairfield
27 Yeah, but they'd be willing to trade to pull ahead of the other teams. I'm sure it would be worth it to the Red Sox if they could get first priority on whoever the equivelant of Porcello will be in the draft.
2008-02-11 12:12:24
30.   bhsportsguy
20 Earliest mock draft I could find was one done a few weeks before the draft, May 18. 2007.

Of the 30 players on the list, one, Scherzer, was signed prior to the draft, so there were 29 draft eligible players on that draft list.

22 of the 29 were drafted and signed in the first round (4 were correct as to where they would be drafted). The remaining 7 players were drafted later, 5 signed with those teams, 2 players did not sign.

2008-02-11 12:15:51
31.   Eric Stephen
Bracketologist Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the following Pac-10 teams in the NCAA tourney:

UCLA: #2 seed (West)
Stanford: #3 seed (South)
Washington St: #5 seed (East)
USC: #8 seed (Midwest) -- with a rematch against Kansas in round 2
Arizona: #8 seed (West)
Arizona St: #12 (South)

ASU is one of his "last four in".
Oregon is one of his "last four out".
Cal is one of his "next four out".

Still an outside shot for the conference to get 7 teams to the tourney.

2008-02-11 12:17:11
32.   ToyCannon
May 18th is a lot different then Feb before the high school season starts. By May you know what you know, nothing is going to change.
2008-02-11 12:17:16
33.   bhsportsguy
30 Actually, another player on their mock draft who was drafted below the first round did not sign.
2008-02-11 12:18:21
34.   Jon Weisman
In case anyone wondered, DT is pro-curling.

2008-02-11 12:19:51
35.   bhsportsguy
31 Lot of people get upset about UCLA being a 2 seed in the West because they still have the geographic advantage (1st round in Anaheim, 2nd round in Phoenix).

I think a lot will depend on how the top 5 teams do in their regular and conference tourneys, UCLA may well have to win their tournament or at least get to the final game as long as they win the regular season title, in order to secure a 1 seed.

2008-02-11 12:22:06
36.   underdog
10 Nope Fetters didn't pitch all that much, you're right. On the other hand, there's no stat to track the effects that an unusual head-jerky, gruff stare down delivery has on opposing batters! Fetters was the champ at that, if nothing else.
2008-02-11 12:23:08
37.   Eric Stephen
In Gurnick's latest piece, he mentions, "the bench shapes up to be on the young side with neither Olmedo Saenz nor Mike Sweeney returning."

I'm sure the article was written before Sweeney was signed (non guaranteed of course), but it's just funny because this article is "newer" than the Sweeney has signed article.

2008-02-11 12:26:28
38.   Eric Stephen
Yeah, I can see that. I wonder if Memphis would lose a #1 seed if they go undefeated in the regular season but lose in the conference tourney.
2008-02-11 12:30:06
39.   bhsportsguy
32 Okay, I found a similar list done in January 2007. 7 high school pitchers were listed, all 7 were drafted, 5 in the first round, 1 in the supplemental and 1 in the third. The third rounder, Matt Harvey, did not sign with the Angels.
2008-02-11 12:32:20
40.   Penarol1916
38. I would think that they have enough decent non-conference wins (Georgetown, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Arizona) to offset one bad loss.
2008-02-11 12:34:31
41.   bhsportsguy
If UCLA was able to run the table and win their conference tournament, probably due to conferences RPI, they would be no worse than 3rd overall No. 1 seed.
2008-02-11 12:36:20
42.   OhioBlues12
37 - Even funnier considering we re-signed the other Sweeney: Mark.
2008-02-11 12:37:26
43.   bhsportsguy
To be determined, has a contest of greatest highlights, tomorrow, The Band vs. the Shot Rick Pitino will never forget.
2008-02-11 12:44:32
44.   Eric Enders
I think Memphis, losing one game, would be an easy #1 seed no matter who they lost to.

As a UTEP fan, it at least gives me some pleasure to know that the only two teams that have played Memphis remotely close are the Miners and an ex-Miners coach (Floyd).

2008-02-11 12:55:46
45.   Eric Enders
43 What is the most famous announcing clip of five words or less?

A. "The band is on the field!"
B. "The Giants win the pennant!"
C. "Havlicek stole the ball!"
D. "Go Crazy, Folks!"
E. Other

2008-02-11 13:00:38
46.   ROC
"Do you believe in miracles?"

Never mind, that's commentary. Or is it?

2008-02-11 13:01:44
47.   Disabled List
24 A team that isn't willing to spend money on the draft can trade down, so at least they'll get something for their pick instead of just handing it to the Tigers, Red Sox, or Yankees.

Except that the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers won't give up anything of value for that draft pick, because they know they can sit back and let the expensive prospect fall to them anyway.

It sucks that the big-money teams have finally gotten smart about the value of their prospects and farm systems. That was one of the few ways that Billy Beane and the small-revenue teams were able to stay afloat. The Santana-for-peanuts trade disappointed me in more ways than one.

2008-02-11 13:01:49
48.   Terry A
45 - B.

Which stinks.

2008-02-11 13:04:08
49.   Bob Timmermann
And I went to all that trouble today with the Sweeneys.
2008-02-11 13:04:35
50.   Eric Enders
45 Apparently Jack Buck, moreso than most announcers, spoke in capital letters.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-02-11 13:05:27
51.   Marty
Down goes Frazier!
2008-02-11 13:06:57
52.   Marty
And we go to Chicago!
2008-02-11 13:08:37
53.   regfairfield
47 Let's say the Red Sox have the last pick in the draft and they really want the big money guy in the draft. Why wouldn't they give up something decent in order to jump in front of every team that can afford the player?
2008-02-11 13:10:33
54.   Jon Weisman
45 - I'd like to see "She is ... gone" nominated.
2008-02-11 13:11:58
55.   old dodger fan
"One small step for man" I know, there is more to it.
2008-02-11 13:14:01
56.   Eric Enders
54 See, I thought about that one. But I decided it was more of a continuous statement. "High fly ball into right field... she is gone!"

YMMV, of course.

I can see why Jon might find my choices depressing, however, since two of the four choices were Dodgers losses and another was a Stanford loss.

2008-02-11 13:14:51
57.   Eric Enders
55 But nobody even remembers the name of the St. Louis Browns announcer.
2008-02-11 13:15:46
58.   Disabled List
53 That's true, but my larger point is that it's still a diminished market. Just like with Johan Santana, the Red Sox would only have to compete for that pick against a handful of other teams. It drives down the value of what the trading team can get in return for that pick.
2008-02-11 13:16:02
59.   Eric Stephen
"Oh, the humanity!"
2008-02-11 13:18:35
60.   regfairfield
58 This is true, they won't get full value, but it's certainly better than the nothing they get now.
2008-02-11 13:20:05
61.   bhsportsguy
53 I guess the issue would be, what would they give up?

Let's say its this year and they want Tampa Bay's pick.

If I am Tampa Bay, maybe I'll take Ellsbury or Pedroia, I know Bucholz is unavailabe and I don't want Lester.

The baseball draft is so different than other sports, there are no eqiuivalents to the Tim Duncan's, Shaqs, Mannings in other sports. Would a team be willing to trade something of value for a projection.

It could work and it probably would make fans more excited about the draft but here's the other thing, the wait, to say its rare for a draft pick to play within the first year of being signed would be giving a casual meaning of rare.

The first step will be ending slot bonuses recommendations and then free-agent compensation of picks. Once those two things end, we'll see about trading picks.

2008-02-11 13:28:54
62.   Xeifrank
60. But they STILL get something. They just don't get that bigh profile Boras player. They just pick a different highly touted player who they feel they are more likely to sign. If they trade down to #28 they can't.
Like 'Disabled List' says and it was my point earlier, with only three (or so) teams in the mix there is very little incentive to trade or give up very much to move up.
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 13:31:00
63.   ToyCannon
All drafts should be eliminated in all sports. I'd be plenty ticked off if I was the best programmer coming out of HS and I got drafted by the Florida Defense Industry instead of being allowed to ply my trade for whomever I wanted. It is a violation of one's civil rights. It is barbaric.
2008-02-11 13:31:39
64.   old dodger fan
43 "No good. Wide right"
2008-02-11 13:33:43
65.   regfairfield
63 It's a necassary evil for competitive balance. If you could go whereever you want, you certainly wouldn't pick a bad team.
2008-02-11 13:36:37
66.   Bob Timmermann
Legally, sports are allowed to hold drafts because they are considered ways for the industries to regulate who joins the unions in that sport.

If none of the leagues had unions, it would be harder to get a draft approved. Except for baseball, which can pretty much do whatever it wants.

2008-02-11 13:36:51
67.   Sam DC
"A little roller up along first . . . "

yeah, yeah, it's six words.

I guess it could be "It gets through Buckner!"

2008-02-11 13:37:45
68.   Eric Enders
"Except for baseball, which can pretty much do whatever it wants."

Except, of course, set its own drug testing policy.

2008-02-11 13:37:53
69.   Eric Stephen
63 ,65
Also, it's tough to compare sports to the real world. In the real world, companies can compete against one another, and the less successful companies might go out of business, or two companies could merge. In sports, that would not be a very stable situation if teams folded all the time.
2008-02-11 13:39:15
70.   Eric Stephen
The best part of that call is "BEHIND THE BAG!".

Or maybe the way Scully's voice cracks when he says, "here comes Knight, and the Mets win it." (but that's more than 5 words of course).

2008-02-11 13:41:45
71.   Eric Stephen
If baseball were to lose its antitrust exemption, would it still be allowed to hold a draft?
2008-02-11 13:42:02
72.   ToyCannon
Competitive balance is a repressive argument. You would pick the team who either paid you the most or gave you the best opportunity for advancement or was the most geographically desirable. Whichever was most important to you as an individual.

You should never be rewarded for being bad, and that is what the draft does. I suck at my job but because I suck at my job it gives me the right to take the best available talent and let civil rights of these 18 year old be damned.

How strange is it that foreign born ballplayers have more civil rights then American born players? They can pick and choose whatever team they want to play for. Since a large % of baseball players are now made up of foreign born players has it altered the landscape of "competitive balance"?

2008-02-11 13:42:36
73.   Eric Enders
For my money, the best part of that call is "It gets through Buckner," because of the concise yet pinpoint description. Most people would have said "it gets by Buckner" or "it gets past Buckner" (both of which rob you of the image of the ball going through his legs) or "it goes through Buckner's legs" (long and unwieldy). Instead we got "it gets through Buckner," which was perfect.
2008-02-11 13:43:23
74.   El Lay Dave
45 Not to be persnickety, but A. is six words.

"They're all gone."

2008-02-11 13:44:11
75.   Bob Timmermann
The NBA doesn't have an antitrust exemption and it has a draft.
2008-02-11 13:44:59
76.   Eric Stephen
Speaking of memorable moments and calls, isn't the Bucky Dent HR call a pretty mundane call? I always kind of chuckled at the way the announcer (I should look up who it was) started with "Deep to left" in a pseudo Skip Caray / Kermit The Frog voice. But it just seems so ordinary to me for a HR that still resonates (at least to Sox or Yanks fans) to this day.

On a smaller scale, I can't say I remember the call to the Brian Johnson HR in 1997.

2008-02-11 13:45:40
77.   Eric Enders
72 Thing is, they already tried it the free market way, up through the sixties, and it sucked. It just means the Yankees win every year. Which means less attendance and less interest in baseball. And less money made. Why the heck would anyone want that?

In baseball, as in many things, the free market is not the answer to everything.

2008-02-11 13:47:19
78.   regfairfield
72 I agree that they need to bring foreign players in line with domestic ones.

Without the draft, if a team ran out of assets, they'd just be finished unless some young talent decides out of the blue to be charatable and join the team. Eventually, people stop coming to the games, and the franchise folds. I don't think that's in anyone's best interests.

2008-02-11 13:47:36
79.   Gen3Blue
From previous post. Jon and 270: Much better. It was my fault, I was looking at it as per game, not per 9 innings, whichis pretty different for a closer. Now I can read this one.
2008-02-11 13:47:46
80.   cargill06
i just heard kuroda's home park in japan was 360' to center and 280' down the lines!!! that's unreal i wonder what his era+ is
2008-02-11 13:48:37
81.   Penarol1916
72. It's not a civil rights issue at all and you can't compare teams to companies. Each sport league is a cartel not a bunch of independent companies, it's actually much closer to joining Citibank, going through its training program and when its over, they tell you where you are going to work. Is it a violation of your civil rights because they told you to sell municipal bonds in Dallas rather than junk bonds in New York? No, because you can quit and go elsewhere, just like you can in baseball. Noone is holding a gun to your head and telling you that you have to play for Major League Baseball. Giving up some autonomy is the price you pay for joining certain organizations.
2008-02-11 13:50:55
82.   Eric Stephen
Well, that answers that. Thanks.
2008-02-11 13:54:25
83.   regfairfield
80 This is all I could find on Japanese park factors, and two year park factors aren't all that helpful.

In 2000, Hiroshima had a park factor of 107, or the equivelant of Philadelphia or Cincinatti. In 2001, it had a park factor of 100, so it was neutral.

2008-02-11 13:54:30
84.   Disabled List
As it is now, the top talent in the game is graduating from small-money teams to big-money teams at a fairly fixed rate. The only two things keeping small-money teams at all competitive is 1) the strength of their scouts and front office at identifying young talent, and 2) the period of indentured servitude that begins with the draft and ends with six years of ML service time.

If you eliminate 2), then 1) becomes worthless and the game will slowly die. I'm sympathetic to ToyCannon's argument, but the survival of the industry must be taken into consideration.

2008-02-11 13:55:45
85.   cargill06
80 wikipedia is saying 300' down the lines 380 to center. can anyone confirm the correct dimensions?
2008-02-11 14:03:28
86.   Eric Enders
84 Way back in the 1980s, Bill James had an idea which I thought was good, and I don't see why it couldn't work.

The main reason for the difference in operating budgets between MLB teams is the vast difference in how much each team's TV contract pays. But as James noted, if the Yankees play the Royals and it's getting beamed across the entire Eastern Seaboard, why do the Yankees have the legal right to keep all that money? There are two teams playing the game. The game cannot be played and cannot be televised unless the Yankees have an opponent.

Therefore, it stands to reason that for every game that's televised, the two teams should split the TV revenue derived from that game equally. MLB could devise new rules to this effect and it would probably go a long way toward evening the money imbalance, while not giving the poor teams anything that's not theirs by rights already.

2008-02-11 14:04:47
87.   ToyCannon
I don't agree with any of the defenses put forth but it would be pointless to debate this issue as we have a huge difference in opinion related to who needs to be protected. The health of a badly run billion dollar cartel or the rights of individual people to pick and choose with whom they would like to ply their trade in the sport of their choosing without being shutout because they don't want to give up those rights.
2008-02-11 14:06:32
88.   ToyCannon
Needless to say Curt Flood was a big hero in my youth.
2008-02-11 14:09:58
89.   Xeifrank
87. Write it up at True Blue LA and see if FJM catches wind of it. :)
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 14:12:08
90.   Disabled List
87 Actually, I'd rather see my well-being and personal happiness protected. And since I'm a rather big fan of the badly-run billion-dollar cartel, I derive a great deal of enjoyment and personal satisfaction following the inner workings of said cartel. Therefore, I would have to say that I'd rather see the billion-dollar cartel get what it wants at the expense of the teenage amateur baseball players, whose financial well-being I have no vested interest in.

Rational economic theory, baby!

2008-02-11 14:13:30
91.   Penarol1916
87. I'm fine with destroying the draft as long as you operate franchises as completely seperate businesses rather than as part of a cartel. Allow the Kansas City Royals to move to New Jersey so that they can have access to the resources necessary to compete. Allow 7 teams in the New York area, 3 in Boston and 4 in LA. The owner of your programming company has the right to move his company wherever he wants to. Why do the other owners get violate one owners civil right to move his team wherever he wants?
2008-02-11 14:14:49
92.   Eric Enders
87 I'm very sympathetic to the plight of the draftees, and Curt Flood is a hero of mine, too. But if the free market system for amateur players were to return, I think it would be a death knell for MLB as a business, and the draftees wouldn't have any rights then either since baseball as we know it would collapse.

One thing you could do, maybe, is to put a salary cap on amateur signings. The union could be persuaded to accept this since those guys aren't union members anyway. Give every team a budget of, say, $3 million for amateur signings. Not only can they not spend more than this, but they can't spend less, either. Abolish the draft. Every player gets to choose where he signs, based on how much each team offers. If a team wants to blow 90% of its budget on Rick Porcello, hey, that's cool. If instead they want to use that money to sign 20 lesser prospects, that's fine too. The players get to go where they want to, talent is distributed evenly among all the teams, and everybody's happy. (Well, except for Scott Boras and George Steinbrenner.)

2008-02-11 14:18:43
93.   Eric Enders
91 Also keep in mind that under a free market system, the arbitration system would go away and players would be eligible for free agency as soon as they reach the major leagues. (Or, likely, even before then.)
2008-02-11 14:19:27
94.   El Lay Dave
86 How are you defining "equally" - 50% each? The Yankees might argue that while the opponents provide some value - as you point out, there is no game without an opponent - they bring in a large majority of viewers, and therefore the ad revenue. Perhaps baseball could define a minimum value of an opponent, which is what the Royals might bring, but other high-interest opponents (e.g. Red Sox) would demand more.

As it stands now, the Royals could conceivably charge more for ads on their broadcasts when the Yankees or Red Sox are one (more viewers), just like some teams charge a premium for tickets when NY or Boston is the opponent.

2008-02-11 14:25:37
95.   Eric Enders
94 Well, it's Bill James's idea, not mine, but yeah, he advocated splitting the revenues for each game 50-50. I can see the Yankees' arguments that they are the main draw, but then, over the course of the season they'd still be making more than anyone else since they are a draw in EVERY game while the Royals are not.
2008-02-11 14:26:20
96.   ToyCannon
Now your talking. I'd make the budget much more and it would be tied to overall baseball revenue. Much like the basketball cap except it would only be used to cap the budget for amateur players and would encompass foreign and American players.
2008-02-11 14:30:10
97.   ToyCannon
With the slotting system MLB already has a budget they would like to see every team use for signing American born players. I wonder if the number is picked out of a pie in the sky or if real number crunching is involved.
2008-02-11 14:30:59
98.   El Lay Dave
If there was no amateur draft and the few large market teams tried to sign all the top prospects:

1. might those teams actually end up with a glut of talent leading to difficult roster decisions and some fascinating Rule V drafts, or more interesting veteran free agents?

2. wouldn't some players want to sign where they perceive a faster route to the major leagues? For example, if I'm a corner infielder prospect, do I sign with the Dodgers who already have Loney, LaRoche, Lambo, Baez, DeWitt, etc.?

Also, while the big-name Japanese talent seems to gravitate toward a few select places, aren't the Latin American amateur free agents spread all over baseball (admittedly many are signed young and cheap...)?

2008-02-11 14:44:41
99.   ToyCannon
I could care less what FJM has to say. It is easy and not impressive to make fun of what others have to say either, in print or on the air.
2008-02-11 14:57:37
100.   Jon Weisman
99 - In 89's case, you're preaching to the choir.

Or, if you prefer, quire.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-02-11 15:05:28
101.   Marty
Isn't a salary cap anti-free market since it restricts potential revenue a person could make?
2008-02-11 15:06:34
102.   Gen3Blue
I like this individual rights approach (in some ways). You can't pitch because your arm's falling off--don't come to work, you'll get disability insurance. No more draft, no more guaranteed contracts. Gen3's in heaven!
2008-02-11 15:12:43
103.   regfairfield
I just noticed that the 40 man is at 39 players without Sweeney, Martinez, and Myers, or any NRI's on it and there's no one that can easily be DFAed. This really limits the amount of PVL we can have this year.
2008-02-11 15:13:26
104.   ToyCannon
I don't care about free-market, my complaint was strictly a persons right to choose their future instead of having some monolithic entity decide it for them. Eric's plan meets the conditions of those who want to maintain competitive balance and will meet mine since the individual is free to choose which team they will sign with. In most cases it will always be who offers the most money but not everyone will, and those few should be given the chance to invoke their rights.
2008-02-11 15:14:34
105.   Marty
104 Ah, thanks for the clarification.
2008-02-11 15:15:25
106.   ToyCannon
Unless we do a Seattle/Oriole like trade. That would open up some spots very quickly.

Cargill doesn't seem to visit here when there is no trade rumor going on.

2008-02-11 15:16:19
107.   Marty

How do you deal with the trade concept then? Only trades players that agree to move to another team?

2008-02-11 15:19:08
108.   Sam DC
106 I think he posted like an hour and a half ago.
2008-02-11 15:21:40
109.   Eric Enders
107 Well, once you sign a contract with a team, you've consented to play wherever that team tells you to play. You have agreed to allow yourself to be traded, in effect. Amateur players are being assigned to certain teams without having signed a contract or agreed to anything.
2008-02-11 15:29:20
110.   dzzrtRatt
So, back to your post, Jon: What does a GM do with this information?

-- trade Beimel & Saito or don't resign them?
-- find an experienced reliever coming off a bad year? Is there a way to predict which ones are ready for a comeback vs. which ones are in permanent decline?

Did the greatest relievers in MLB history defy this pattern? Is that where all the "scattered exceptions" are found?

2008-02-11 15:31:49
111.   Xeifrank
In case I missed it, (TC) are you for abolishing the draft in all major sports leagues? vr, Xei
2008-02-11 15:31:53
112.   cargill06
did you hear that we're shopping rick taloa????
2008-02-11 15:37:40
113.   regfairfield
110 Only the best relievers are dominant year after year, and that makes them very valuable. I wouldn't shop Saito, but Beimel is a good guy to shop around.

Pretty much all I can recommend when signing relievers is just find guys with live arms, like Rudy Seanez, that you can get on the cheap.

2008-02-11 15:40:01
114.   Marty
If anyone wants a new screen saver:

Safe for work.

2008-02-11 15:54:10
115.   Gen3Blue
What does the mixed success of Japanese free agents mean? Could the Dodgers have discovered Saito as a closer when he was 32?
What does this mean for Kuroda if the D's have an unexpected surplus of adequate starters in '08. I think I am slightly biased toward Japanese pitchers by the Dodgers experience with them. But the meager info I have heard about Kuroda's personality makes him sound like a closer or set up man.
2008-02-11 15:58:03
116.   Gen3Blue
103 If both Martinez and Sweeney are on the team April 1st it will mean that very little has changed, and I will probably be looking for a high bridge to jump off.
2008-02-11 15:59:48
117.   cargill06
116 i don't think you have to worry about that, sweeney has a chance, hopefully a small small chance.
2008-02-11 16:02:16
118.   regfairfield
116 If we didn't have Nomar I'd be pretty happy if that happened.
2008-02-11 16:05:01
119.   Xeifrank
Adjusted for park factor, ZIPS has Kuroda projected with:

IP: 180
Hits: 184
HRs: 20
SO: 114
BB: 35

Using same set of projections Kuroda's most similar NL West pitchers are.

1. Maddux
2. Haren (HR/9, BB/9 almost identical, Haren has higher K/9).
3. Germano

Closest Dodger comp (based on 2008 ZIPS) is Derek Lowe.

Rates used: HR/9, K/9, BB/9

Not sure on Kuroda's GB/FB ratio.

vr, Xei

2008-02-11 16:06:13
120.   silverwidow
If Kuroda is a control freak, I'd be very happy.
2008-02-11 16:08:35
121.   Xeifrank
OT, AN is undergoing a makeover with new blogging software. This makeover for all the SBN sites has been hugely hyped I am curious to see what features they've added. Sometimes simple is better. The site is currently down but should be back up with software upgrade shortly FTI.
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 16:10:57
122.   regfairfield
121 I can confirm that it's really, really cool.
2008-02-11 16:11:35
123.   TheBigGrabowski
114 That is great! Any way I can download that?
2008-02-11 16:18:41
124.   Kevin Lewis
Good news, folks. I just found out I passed all four sub-tests of the CSET: English on the first try!
2008-02-11 16:19:10
125.   Bumsrap
It's time for Dodgers Baseball

Down to their last strike

The mustards off the hotdog

Dodgers, 2008 World Series Champs

2008-02-11 16:25:46
126.   Xeifrank
122. :)
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 16:27:38
127.   Bob Timmermann
Confirming earlier statements, Hiroshima Municipal Stadium does indeed have a short porch in both left and right. However, it doesn't give up as many home runs as you think. In Japan, the bandboxes are the domed stadiums. I predict at least eight home runs will be hit by the Red Sox and Athletics in their two games to start the season. The outdoor stadiums don't give up as many home runs.
2008-02-11 16:32:06
128.   Bluebleeder87
It's gonna be interesting watching those three [Saito, Broxton & Beimel] this year, I really feel Saito & Brox will be fine but Beimel (basing my opinion on Dodger Trends) will be interesting to watch, my gut tells me he'll be fine though. Veremos.
2008-02-11 16:38:51
129.   Eric Stephen
Yeah, the key will be if Beimel can keep inducing grounders back to the box at a superhuman rate. My head says he can't keep it up, but my gut/heart thinks/hopes he will at least be above average and thus effective.
2008-02-11 16:45:18
130.   Eric Stephen
I think it would be a useful exercise if we all projected numbers for the 2008 Dodgers, maybe guess BA/SLG/OBP for each semi-regular, and ERA/WHIP for the pitchers.

I was thinking now might be too soon, but most other projection systems are already out so what the heck.

I'd be happy to compile the numbers and average them out.

2008-02-11 16:51:45
131.   silverwidow
I'll take a shot with the lineup:

Furcal: .289/.342/.426
Pierre: .297/.329/.360
Loney: .316/.377/.508
Jones: .255/.348/.501
Kent: .280/.366/.477
Kemp: .297/.349/.512
Martin: .301/.368/.462
LaRoche: .263/.371/.455

2008-02-11 17:00:38
132.   Xeifrank
130. Many other blogs do this. They call it "Community Projections". I don't think DT has done this in the past, and not sure if any other Dodger blogs do it. Then the following year they look back to see how close they were as a group and who came the closest to each individual player.
vr, Xei
2008-02-11 17:02:37
133.   regfairfield
I'm just starting a 30 team fantasy league with 25 man rosters and a salary cap of 85 million (based on 2007 salaries). I'm trying to get ideas on how to approach the draft. Right now, I've got this:

1. Expensive superstars are probably undervalued. I'll expect to see a lot of team's good players total up to 20 million while they fill up the rest of the cap with Jose Guillen's. I might be able to make a killing early if I can take Pujols/A-Rod in the first two rounds.

2. Catchers are very scarce. Each team needs two, so there will be 60 starting catchers total. By my count, there are eight cost effective, productive catchers in baseball. Would it be a good choice to take two of Martin/McCann/Martinez in rounds one and two (I have the 26th and 35th overall picks).

3. The league doesn't seem too impressive, so I can probably hold off on pitching as long as possible and just take young guys with good arms.

4. Since closers are generally veterans, they tend to be expensive. I should probably jump on Saito or Putz early.

Any other ideas?

2008-02-11 17:07:37
134.   GoBears
130. Here's my guess:

Furcal: .289/.342/.426
Pierre: .297/.329/.360
Loney: .316/.377/.508
Jones: .255/.348/.501
Kent: .280/.366/.477
Kemp: .297/.349/.512
Martin: .301/.368/.462
LaRoche: .263/.371/.455

2008-02-11 17:10:12
135.   GoBears
131/134. D'oh! Beaten by silverwidow! And by only 16 minutes!

Yeah, I plagiarized...

I actually have no confidence in making any projections of my own. I will say that sw's stab for Loney seems a little optimistic, for both patience and power.

2008-02-11 17:10:23
136.   silverwidow
134 You're picking the exact same numbers?
2008-02-11 17:12:20
137.   GoBears
Heh heh heh.
2008-02-11 17:17:54
138.   twerp
103 "This really limits the amount of PVL we can have this year."

PVL=Proven Veteran Liability, a whole new meaning?

2008-02-11 17:25:52
139.   regfairfield
Furcal: .275/.345/.405
Pierre: .280/.320/.345
Loney: .310/.365/.460
Jones: .250/.340/.460
Kemp: .290/.335/.490
Kent: .270/.355/.445
Martin: .290/.375/.455
LaRoche: .280/.360/.460
2008-02-11 17:27:45
140.   Bumsrap
133 - How will your league keep score?

Draft to maximize your scoring and don't worry where the points come from.

2008-02-11 17:28:14
141.   regfairfield
140 Standard 5 X 5 rotisserie rules.
2008-02-11 17:36:09
142.   Bumsrap
141 - My drafting experience has been limited to working under a point lid with owners taking turns throwing out a name and every bidding on that player. Takes a while to complete a draft but makes it fun.

Always fun to throw out AROD, bid him up, and hope a couple of owners keep bidding until someone overbids.

2008-02-11 17:37:38
143.   das411
Yo Eric Stephen, didnt Lew Fonseca narrate a bunch of those WS movies too? Like, back in the day before they invented Bob Costas and Tim McCarver?
2008-02-11 17:37:53
144.   underdog
Good luck trying to interpret their thick accents, but if you've never seen it before, I do recommend watching the latest installment of "Fan Zone" on Fox Soccer Channel, right now as we speak. Chelsea vs. Liverpool. Two fans doing the play by play. Often hilarious. I wish they'd do this for baseball games someday soon.
2008-02-11 17:55:55
145.   MC Safety
144 Great program. No points for Chelsea, and another great weekend of football as Arsenal are 5 points ahead of Manure now! And Adebayor notched a goal to tie Ronaldo for tops in the EPL! Bring on Milan!
2008-02-11 17:59:51
146.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
Furcal: .285/.365/.445
Pierre: .337/.389/.435
Loney: .305/.355/.470
Jones: .275/.360/.510
Kemp: .280/.345/.490
Kent: .270/.355/.445
Martin: .280/.365/.450
LaRoche: .260/.340/.440
Nomar: .290/.340/.400
Ethier: .285/.350/.415

I believe Scrappy McTryhard will channel the negative energy from this site into a run at the batting title.

2008-02-11 18:00:50
147.   Sam DC
So, Potomac Primary tomorrow. And I have a quandary.

I'd like to vote after work, so I can take my 7 yr old with me.

But then I don't get to wear my "I voted" sticker all day. Which bothers me in its own right and furthermore I expect will lead to do-gooders at the office bugging me over and over again.

I s'pose it's a sacrifice I have to make for the civic education of my son.

2008-02-11 18:01:40
148.   Eric Stephen
So far I have watched the 1959 & 1963 WS videos, and Vin Scully was narrating those. The name "Lew Fonseca" sounded so familiar that he certainly could have narrated some others.

I looked it up and he did in fact narrate some of the earlier videos, but it changed to the winning team's announcers sometime in the late 1950s.

2008-02-11 18:01:57
149.   Jon Weisman
My latest Friday Night Lights blog post:

2008-02-11 18:04:21
150.   underdog
145 Heh. Not a Man U fan I take it?

I loved their comment on Peter Crouch when the stork-like player couldn't put a header in: "He's jus' got no power in that neck!"

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-02-11 18:16:26
151.   Sam DC
Not to be all parochial, but did anyone else just see the end of the Nova/G'Town game?
2008-02-11 18:19:05
152.   Sam DC
Nova came back from 12 down, they had the ball with 30 secs left. Ran the clock down, their player got hung up on the baseline and Gtown still the ball with a couple secs left, Wallace of Georgetown picked it up, and as he pushed the ball upcourt, a real phantom foul was called with .1 secs left, based on a defender's knee grazing Wallace near the sideline.

So Wallace (who they just said is the best foul shooter in Georgetown history!) makes the shots and that's it.


2008-02-11 18:20:00
153.   Sam DC
Parochial Out Of State College Hoops Thoughts now passes over to Eric.
2008-02-11 18:21:08
154.   Eric Stephen
Here are my guesses for 2008:

Martin - .285/.365/.460
Loney - .314/.371/.509
Kent - .281/.360/.458
LaRoche - .273/.351/.472
Nomar - .284/.342/.419
Furcal - .291/.357/.438
Ethier - .297/.361/.471
Pierre - .310/.347/.384
Andruw - .259/.346/.519
Kemp - .317/.362/.498
Abreu - .267/.314/.404

Penny - 3.47/1.35
Billingsley - 3.07/1.23
Lowe - 3.74/1.28
Kuroda - 3.91/1.37
Schmidt - 4.21/1.32
Loaiza - 4.78/1.48
Saito - 2.39/1.03
Broxton - 2.71/1.14
Beimel - 3.84/1.35
Proctor - 3.65/1.31

2008-02-11 18:24:19
155.   Eric Stephen
That was weird and strangely clairvoyant. You knew I was going to post right after to you!
2008-02-11 18:28:27
156.   LAT
Offical Haven't Read The Thread Disclaimer.

Has anyone seen the Torre picture on the latest article at His mellon is HUGE. A gigantic brain like that must make you really really smart.

2008-02-11 18:29:35
157.   Joe Pierre
I believe that how important the bullpen is depense on the team. The more support they get from the starters, the longer it takes for them to be needed, how often they are called upon, they need some work, but not too much. The more support the offense gives the better it is for the entire pitching staff( they can be less perfect). I think the reason we fell behind the Rox, D-backs & Pards last year was not only because of our offense couldn't keep up but our bullpen which was carrying us must have tired out. But as you say, we don't know if they'll be that good this year.
2008-02-11 18:32:47
158.   Eric Stephen
Plus Torre wears his caps like my dad used to -- almost sitting on top of his head.
2008-02-11 18:37:24
159.   Lee Corbett
Some notes from Down Under;

I was checking the Australian players in the minors, and the Dodgers have only one as far as I can tell. Some teams, like the Twins and Phillies, have seven or eight. Is that just down to not having a scout here, or randomness?

Word over here is that MLB is going to subsidise a national baseball league, which for economic reasons, we have not had here for a while. That would be good.

Paul LoDuca spent some time playing the Australian Baseball League while he was a minor leaguer.

I wish I could go to baseball games.

2008-02-11 18:49:01
160.   trainwreck
That was one of the worst calls I have ever seen. Let them decide the game in overtime. The guy barely touched him.
2008-02-11 19:00:48
161.   CanuckDodger
139 -- Regfairfield, how about making predictions for Nomar and Ethier's batting lines, just to be thorough?
2008-02-11 19:03:43
162.   trainwreck
Canuck, I have read that there could be an 8th season of Trailer Park Boys or they may end up just doing another film. Have you heard anything about the show?
2008-02-11 19:04:53
163.   twerp
Finally, an answer to a Koufax mystery. Turns out I didn't dream this after all======

I was fairly sure there had been a story sometime the last few years that one spring after Koufax retired, he donned cleats at Vero, cranked it up again, and even managed to hit 90 on the gun. And yea, apparently it came to pass-----

"Koufax, who lives in Vero Beach much of the year, was a no-show, but his name still resonates as much as ever.

"In spring 1986, 20 years after he was forced to retire because of arthritis in his pitching elbow, Koufax started to throw again. At age 50.

"There on a back mound, the man who is arguably the greatest left-handed pitcher of all-time brought back his high leg kick and blistering fastball. By the end of spring training he hit 90 mph on a radar gun.

"It absolutely stopped the camp," said Jerry Reuss, a Dodgers left-hander at the time.

"As great a pitcher as he was, Koufax is an equally talented student of the game. He would often come to spring training, make a few adjustments to a pitcher's delivery and vanish.

"Last spring, Jay Howell, the closer for the Dodgers' 1988 championship team, made a rare visit.

"As he left, Howell recounted how Koufax once suggested he change his grip on the ball.

'It added six years to my career,' he said. 'I never got the chance to say thank you.'

"That was the power of Koufax. The magic of one generation teaching the next. And the beauty of Dodgertown."

Other good stuff on Dodgertown also.

2008-02-11 19:18:33
164.   ToyCannon
Furcal: .292/.357/.444
Pierre: .301/.339/.352
Loney: .306/.352/.483
Jones: .267/.351/.504
Kemp: .302/.353/.521
Kent: .267/.338/.421
Martin: .281/.359/.464
LaRoche: .259/.344/.439
Nomar .319/.363/439
Ethier .293/349/441
2008-02-11 19:20:09
165.   CanuckDodger
162 -- I have heard two different things: (1) I heard that there won't be a new season this year, but there will be one in 2009; and (2) I heard that the series is over, but that they may do occasional "specials" for TV in future. What is true, I don't know.

Did you order in any more DVD's of Canadian shows?

2008-02-11 19:22:35
166.   CanuckDodger
164 -- ToyCannon loves Nomar and hates LaRoche. Boo!:)
2008-02-11 19:23:08
167.   Suffering Bruin
Apologies if that has already been noted before.

I am about to say something nice about Juan Pierre.

The two best baserunners in all of baseball--by far--are Jose Reyes and Juan Pierre.

Here's the link:

2008-02-11 19:24:03
168.   Suffering Bruin
Er... apologies if this has been noted before.

Hey, I teach the subject, 'kay? Doesn't mean I have to know it.

2008-02-11 19:26:36
169.   Eric Stephen
I think the latest Breaking Bad was the best episode yet.
2008-02-11 19:27:44
170.   trainwreck
I started watching Corner Gas, but I am not a big fan. Has that common sitcom style of humor.

I have been watching two British shows, Garth Marenghi's Darkplace and Man to Man with Dean Lerner and those shows are brilliant! Richard Ayoade is going to be a big star one day. Hopefully, NBC picks up the American re-make of The It Crowd.

2008-02-11 19:37:18
171.   das411
148 - Gotcha. I think that's right because I managed to Ebay my way into a 3-set of the 1951, 53 and 56 WS tapes and I do think he narrated all three of those...hmm but if I dont remember that clearly it must mean it's time to watch 'em again right?

147 - Sam, if you're still awake by now, why not let your son "help" you vote and then wear the sticker? My little sister got to do that with my mom way back in '00 and we still give her a hard time for it!

2008-02-11 19:47:19
172.   ToyCannon
Andy will struggle in his 1st season much like Cey did, but he will do enough that he is the main guy.
Nomar is going to get that lift in average by pounding LHP in a part time role. His slug % is still low. He will not be the starting 3rd baseman.
2008-02-11 19:49:53
173.   Bob Timmermann
My parents never took me to the polls and I grew up as a huge political geek and had a blank map ready to use for coloring in each state for the winning candidate.

Of course, the first presidential election I got to do this for was 1972, which wasn't exactly a great example for coloring.

2008-02-11 19:53:10
174.   Jon Weisman
169 - Gonna watch it imminently.
2008-02-11 19:55:25
175.   Daniel Zappala
My Rule 5 Approved Political Question:

What happens if, after a candidate is officially nominated by his/her party at the Democratic or Republican convention, but before the general election, the candidate is incapacitated or dies? Does the party substitute a new candidate before the election? What if there isn't enough time to do that? Do the votes go to the VP on the ticket? What if both die?

Yes, I'm thinking oddly today.

2008-02-11 19:55:43
176.   Sam DC
171 Sure, he gets the sticker.

But the lunch ladies are going to hound me during the day!

2008-02-11 19:58:13
177.   Marty
Polls weren't for children when I was a boy. That was serious business.
2008-02-11 20:00:58
178.   Eric Stephen
The offending line mentioned in 37 has been removed from Gurnick's article.
2008-02-11 20:01:42
179.   Bob Timmermann
In 1912, the Republican candidate for VP, James Sherman (he was actually the incumbent VP) died on October 12, 1912. The Republicans substituted Nicholas Butler, president of Columbia University. William Howard Taft kept running.

It didn't matter as Taft finished third behind Wilson and Roosevelt.

In 1872, Horace Greeley was the Democratic nominee for president and he lost the election to Ulysses Grant. Greeley passed away after the vote, but before the date the electors met. So the electors pledged to Greeley, just picked whomever they wanted and some still voted for Greeley.

There are no other precedents. If the electors have not met, I would think that the National Committee of the party in question would select a new candidate to replace any deceased candidate.

2008-02-11 20:03:04
180.   El Lay Dave

Furcal: .289/.357/.431
Pierre: .291/.330/.355
Loney: .301/.355/.495
Jones: .270/.370/.540
Kemp: .295/.350/.515
Kent: .280/.360/.475
Martin: .290/.375/.470
LaRoche: .289/.381/.439
Nomar: .285/.340/.385
Ethier: .295/.355/.465

2008-02-11 20:05:21
181.   Jon Weisman
110 Ratt, I think my main concern is that the Dodgers don't get greedy with Beimel just because they milked a couple of good seasons out of him. I would not lose sight of the fact that he's better against righties than lefties.

With Saito, you have to watch how his age affects his durability. I do think he's an exception to the rule, but mentally, we have to prepare ourselves for more blown saves this year.

I'd think Broxton should be fine. Few relievers hit the big time at his age.

2008-02-11 20:06:29
182.   Jon Weisman
175 - That sounds like a good idea for a movie starring Lawrence Harvey, Angela Lansbury and Frank Sinatra.
2008-02-11 20:06:58
183.   Bob Timmermann
Your question isn't odd either. Constitutional law scholars have written dozens of articles on the very subject you asked about.

I read those for fun!

2008-02-11 20:08:27
184.   Bob Timmermann
I thought Jon preferred the version with Denzel Washington, Liev Schrieber, Meryl Streep, and Vera Farmigia.
2008-02-11 20:16:29
185.   Daniel Zappala
179 My concern is how the voters would know who they were voting for in the election. They just vote the party and then hope for the best when the electors meet, if their guy/gal wins? I suppose the party could pick someone in advance, but if time was shorting, picking and publishing this choice could be difficult.

Where does one find articles from Constitutional law scholars?

2008-02-11 20:16:57
186.   Daniel Zappala
182 Feel free to take the idea and run with it.
2008-02-11 20:20:04
187.   Jon Weisman
184 - Never saw it. That came out when I was lying fallow.
2008-02-11 20:23:03
188.   Eric Stephen
So far I have received 7 entries. 3 of them didn't include Nomar and Ethier. Reg & silverwidow (& by extension, GoBears), feel free to add those any time.

I was the only one to put in an Abreu projection, but it might be overkill to include him.

2008-02-11 20:25:07
189.   Bob Timmermann
Presidential elections are based on the fact that we, the voters, trust them, the electors, to vote the way we want them to. They can always go rogue and go elect someone like Jon as president.

If you want to find articles on the topic, go to the library. You work at a big university and I'm sure you can find some in a database that BYU has access to.

Alternatively, you can just wait around until runs an Explainer on the topic.

2008-02-11 20:26:24
190.   Bob Timmermann
Actually you wouldn't have liked that version of the film. It was a pale imitation of the original.
2008-02-11 20:30:29
191.   Bob Timmermann
Hey, already ran an article on Daniel's question.

It's actually not all that annoying.

2008-02-11 20:32:36
192.   Bluebleeder87

He did have some back problems last year from what I remember. I can't remember if it was back problems or shoulder tightness or maybe both.

2008-02-11 20:41:03
193.   Andrew Shimmin
The Secret Service is going to be knocking on Zappala's door any minute now. I mean, I get where you're coming from, but wow. And 175 pretty much takes off the table that chance that it wasn't premeditated.
2008-02-11 20:41:20
194.   Daniel Zappala
191 And I found this online book:

2008-02-11 20:46:23
195.   Bluebleeder87
Here is Sammy Saito's injury history with the Dodgers:

Jul 26, 2007: Missed 4 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 23, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 8, 2007: Missed 4 games (left hamstring injury).
Jun 3, 2007: Left hamstring injury, day-to-day.
Jun 1, 2007: Missed 2 games (shoulder injury).
May 30, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.

2008-02-11 20:53:39
196.   jasonungar07
Speaking of movies..A movie from 06 I always wanted to see I finally saw..Little Children. All I can say was wow right from the start I was mesmerized.
2008-02-11 20:56:24
197.   Bluebleeder87
You know, it wouldn't be a bad idea to rest Saito just a wee bit more this season & give Broxton the closers roll when Saito is resting.
2008-02-11 20:57:00
198.   StolenMonkey86
130 - Yay! Guessing Games!

La Roche - .285/.385/.525
Martin - .290/.370/.450
Loney - .300/.360/.500
Jones - .250/.350/.500
Kent - .285/.355/.485 (Rate2: 80)
Kemp - .290/.335/.495
Ethier - .290/.360/.460
Furcal - .290/.350/.430
Pierre - .310/.340/.390
Abreu - .280/.320/.430
Nomar - .270/.320/.385 (for LA)
Nomar - .300/.345/.480 (for NYY)
Sweeney - .270/.330/.410
Young - .290/.330/.475

Penny - 3.85/1.35
Lowe - 3.50/1.23
Bills - 3.25/1.10
Kuroda - 4.45/1.35
Schmidt - 4.20/1.28
Saito - 2.51/0.95
Broxton - 2.90/1.10
Beimel - 3.90/1.40
Proctor - 3.35/1.15
Brazoban - 4.50/1.25
Loaiza - 5.81/1.58
Seanez - 4.75/1.21

2008-02-11 20:58:00
199.   StolenMonkey86
197 - that way Proctor can be the everyday setup man
2008-02-11 21:07:31
200.   Eric Stephen
FYI, I'm only counting your LA numbers for Nomar. :)
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-02-11 21:12:18
201.   Gen3Blue
If a line-up features everybody with an OPS of .800 or over, but noone over .900 how do they fair. And can we achieve this (perhaps by playing alot of spring training with JP in left field and Repko at 3rd or SS.)
2008-02-11 21:25:41
202.   Eric Stephen
The 2007 Rockies hit .280/.354/.437, and scored 5.28 runs per game.

The 2006 Red Sox hit .269/.351/.435, and scored 5.06 runs per game.

Hell, the 2006 Dodgers hit .276/.348/.432, and scored 5.06 runs per game.

I would say 5 runs per game isn't out of the question. The Dodgers averaged 4.7 runs per game from June 10 on (the date Loney came up -- Kemp was 2 days earlier).

2008-02-11 21:27:12
203.   trainwreck
Last week HBO had that film on at 2 in the morning and I could only see about 45 minutes of it. I have been waiting all week to see it, but I have yet to see it on TV again. Really want to finish watching it.
2008-02-11 21:35:58
204.   Marty
Do they still make CrackerJack? I have a craving.
2008-02-11 21:43:16
205.   Eric Stephen
About a month ago, my brother made CrackerJack from scratch, and it was outstanding. He denied my request to have a small prize included with my snack.
2008-02-11 22:02:12
206.   Brendan
Twerp. There is a tall tale that Koufax struck out the heart of the 81 Dodgers as well one spring. Actually the story I read or heard was that he struck out Garvey, Cey, Baker but Pedro G. took Sandy deep with an opposite field shot straight down the line. Not sure if it is true or if I have the story straight but I do recall reading/hearing an approximate version of it. Any one else hear a story like this one?

203 HBO On Demand if you have digital cable. You can watch most of the HBO movies they are showing that month. no cost for the feature. Same goes for Showtime, Movie Channel etc.

2008-02-11 22:06:22
207.   regfairfield
161 Sure

Nomar - .285/.325/.380
Ethier - .280/.335/.450

I think the only prediction that's been more pessimistic than any of mine is TC's LaRoche numbers.

2008-02-11 22:09:20
208.   StolenMonkey86
202 - acutally none of those hit the criteria in 201 . Lofton and Furcal weren't there, Kemp wasn't there, Aybar and Betemit weren't there. And the 06 Bosox had Alex Cora, the 07 Rockies had Willy Taveras, and those teams both had players with a 900+ OPS.
2008-02-11 22:10:38
209.   StolenMonkey86
207 - wow, you think Ethier's ability to walk will regress?
2008-02-11 22:10:52
210.   trainwreck
HBO did not put it On Demand until today, so thankfully I can finally watch it.
2008-02-11 22:12:54
211.   regfairfield
209 Forgot it shot up at the end of the year. Bump that up to .280/.345/.450.

In case you're skimming for these numbers:

Ethier: .280/.345/.450.

2008-02-11 22:29:04
212.   Eric Stephen
My point was if you have all those people at or above .800 (but not much over), the team OPS -- adding in a bench and pitchers hitting to lower the total -- will be slightly under .800.

The examples I used were numbers I think the Dodgers can be in the vicinity of this season.

2008-02-11 22:34:46
213.   StolenMonkey86
212 - yeah, but I think the big key is just not having any holes in the lineup other than the pitcher's spot, which is what the 06 Dodgers almost did.
2008-02-11 22:39:39
214.   Eric Stephen
I stand by the 5 runs per game. They averaged 4.7 per game once Kemp and Loney came up, and they can improve on the following:

1) Andruw replacing Gonzo ABs
2) A healthy Furcal
3) Production from 3B
4) Pierre getting something less than 100.0% of PA

2008-02-11 22:41:46
215.   Eric Enders
So, to answer Sam's parochial question from way back in 151 /152 -- I thought the ref made the right call. It wasn't contact that would normally be called a foul, but it forced the dribbler to step out of bounds. You can't call it a turnover on Georgetown because they didn't do anything wrong. When contact forces a player out of bounds, it needs to be called (and almost always is).

That, and I'm not one of these people who believe the rulebook should just be chucked out the window in the final 10 seconds of the game. I'm weird like that.

2008-02-11 22:42:40
216.   Eric Enders
P.S. I was looking at a U.S. map just now, and for some reason the state of Kansas has these weird Burnt Orange footprints all over it.
2008-02-11 22:42:53
217.   JRSarno
News from I guess Billy Bean wants Ethier back in any Blanton deal. He's asking for way too much, IMO. Not surprising. If Flanders does this, I'd slap him in the mustache -- especially if the prospect Bean is asking for is Kershaw. No way....

"Oakland's asking price for pitcher Joe Blanton is steep. From the Dodgers, the A's want Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche and a prospect."

2008-02-11 22:48:52
218.   Eric Stephen
2008-02-11 22:49:34
219.   silverwidow
217 Been there, done that.
2008-02-11 22:52:05
220.   trainwreck
Well there was a lot of debate about whether he was out of bounds or not too.

For these purposes I am just going to assume he was out of bounds. You said that the contact would not have normally been called a foul, which I agree with. But you said that GTown do not deserve to be punished since they did nothing wrong. Well if the guy plays good defense and forces that guy out of bounds, shouldn't his team be rewarded?

2008-02-11 22:52:25
221.   El Lay Dave
217 This came up earlier, maybe in the last thread. It looks like an unconfirmed rumor (not even an unnamed source!), or an old one dredge up from the muck, and doesn't ring true. Ethier doesn't fit the profile of the kinds of players Beane is collecting; Andre has too much MLB experience already. If the A's get LaRoche, they have to dump Chavez on someone, or play him elsewhere (big contract), or something.
2008-02-11 22:53:35
222.   trainwreck
I do not buy that Beane would want Ethier from us. He wants middle infielders.
2008-02-11 23:08:13
223.   Eric Enders
220 "Well if the guy plays good defense and forces that guy out of bounds, shouldn't his team be rewarded?"

Yeah, he should. But that's not what happened. Instead, he bumped him to force him out of bounds. A small bump, but IMO it did make the difference in knocking Wallace out of bounds.

I think two replay angles clearly showed Wallace's foot on the line. And for what it's worth, it doesn't really matter whether he ACTUALLY stepped out, because it's clear that the ref THOUGHT he stepped out. Otherwise the foul wouldn't have been called.

As for people who disliked the call, I think the only legitimate argument they have is that the bump didn't negatively impact Georgetown, because they weren't going to have time to score anyway. That's obviously true, but I don't think it's enough to rationalize swallowing the whistle. Besides, the ref had no way of knowing at the time whether the call would negatively impact Georgetown. If you give the ball back to Nova with 1.2 seconds left, they have time to make a game-winning shot. But you can't do that -- you can't give them an illegitimate possession with time left on the clock. Instead it turned out there were 0.2 seconds left instead of 1.2, but we can't expect the refs to know that unless we're asking them to look up and analyze the clock situation before every blow of the whistle.

Like I said earlier, I hate it when the last 10 seconds of the game is played under a different set of rules than the first 39:50. It's by far the lamest thing about college basketball. I mean, what other sport just chucks the rulebook out the window at the most important time of the game? It's ridiculous and it needs to be stopped.

The baseball equivalent would be bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth, and the home plate umpire refusing to call a ball, even though the pitcher throws 7 straight pitches in the dirt, because he doesn't want the game to be decided on a walk. It's that ridiculous.

So this Georgetown victory is legit in my opinion. They still need to give back their win at West Virginia, though.

2008-02-11 23:25:25
224.   trainwreck
My deal is that the game was pretty physical and the play which caused the turnover was a very physical play, but the refs did not call a foul. How can you allow all that physical play, but then make a ticky tack call to end the game?

I watched the ending to the Rutgers/Tennessee game and a lot of people were really upset with that one. Granted, I did not see the replays, but the girl seemed to have gotten hacked so I have no problem with them calling a foul to basically end the game in that circumstance.

2008-02-11 23:30:04
225.   trainwreck
Using the baseball analogy...

If the ump had been consistently calling a low strike zone, but then on the last batter of the game calls a high strike, I would be irritated.

2008-02-11 23:31:01
226.   68elcamino427
Furcal 284/349/407
Martin 288/366/454
Jones 263/342/497
Kemp 312/373/521
Loney 321/372/543
Kent 290/357/504
Eithier 295/357/464
Laroche 279/361/402
Nomar 283/328/371
Pierre 300/347/373
2008-02-11 23:43:01
227.   Eric Enders
224 My deal is just wanting the game to be called the game from start to finish. And I think it was. Had that play happened at any other time, it still would have been called a foul. The physicality of the play (or lack thereof) is meaningless in instances where the player is bumped or pushed out of bounds. It doesn't matter whether the bump was hard or soft; all that matters is whether it was enough to cause him to go out.
2008-02-12 00:02:12
228.   Andrew Shimmin
Would everybody who's projecting Pierre to OPS .700 or higher please email me? I've got some exciting opportunities in the real estate field that I'd be thrilled to explore with you.
2008-02-12 00:33:36
229.   jasonungar07
So I was at Javier's in Irvine Spectrum and saw Shawn Green today..He just walked out as I was walking in. That place is great BTW for Mexican food.

It's sad that no one project anyone even sniffing a .400 on base. Man I wish we had that type hitter ya know?

Having the 3 month old 206 it took me 3-4 days to watch the whole movie, but would watch bits at a time and was gripped. It may be better that way strangely. I thought of stuff in between. It was a book I guess. Love the narrator. I purposely stayed away from reading about it not to be spoiled so in general I don't know a thing about it.

Great film and typically not my type of movie (other than I will watch a great movie in any genre out of respect and curiosity)

2008-02-12 00:57:47
230.   overkill94
227 But if the bump had occurred at the top of the key instead of at the sideline I doubt it would have been called, so again you're implementing a separate set of rules.

I thought the call was crap myself. So many ticky-tack fouls either get called or missed throughout an entire game that it seems stupid to let one of the ones that does get called decide the game. Fouls during the last 5 seconds of a game should be restricted to truly obvious calls.

2008-02-12 01:00:10
231.   overkill94
196 Little Children was actually my favorite movie of 2006. It didn't have quite the impact on a second viewing (which is understandable), but I couldn't stop thinking about that movie after watching it the first time. Both Kate Winslett and Patrick Wilson gave outstanding lead performances and Jackie Earle Haley's supporting role was truly Oscar-worthy.
2008-02-12 01:17:03
232.   jasonungar07
231 yep.
2008-02-12 05:50:18
233.   StolenMonkey86
228 - hey, mine only has that because I had him hitting for 15 points higher in batting average.
2008-02-12 06:41:00
234.   Penarol1916
224. Did you watch the same game I did? That game was what we in the Big East call an ACC-special, nothing but ticky-tack fouls called the whole way, which completely destroyed the flow of the game. The only way Villanova got back into the game was because of fouls as ticky-tack as the last one. It was a terribly officiated game from the start, and the last call was completely consistent with the way the rest of the game was called.
2008-02-12 07:54:45
235.   Andrew Shimmin
233- Baker, California is the new Luxembourg, and you can get in on it on the ground floor! We're having a no obligation, getaway weekend in just a couple of weeks; can I put your name on the guest list?
2008-02-12 07:57:17
236.   Eric Stephen
Andrew, I'll just send you a deposit. I trust your judgment.

Thus far everyone seems to be really close on their Martin projections. There is not a lot of variance. We all have a pretty similar idea of what we think Russ will do.

Keep the projections coming.

2008-02-12 08:02:01
237.   Andrew Shimmin
236- Are you going to throw out the score from the East German judge, or can I try fixing the group average by projecting Pierre to go .120/.110/.120?
2008-02-12 08:04:09
238.   Eric Stephen
I thought the East German judge gave Pierre a "NINE!!!"
2008-02-12 08:28:48
239.   Andrew Shimmin
Samuel Johnson only said that patriotism was the real last refuge of a scoundrel because he hadn't thought of puns in German.
2008-02-12 08:29:48
240.   Jon Weisman

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.