Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Andre Ethier ...
If Joe Torre wants a veteran in the outfield next to Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp, then Andre Ethier is ready for duty. He's not a rookie; he's not a kid. This is his prime time.
I'm concerned with the straw men set up in defense of Juan Pierre. No one that I know of has blamed Pierre singlehandedly for the Dodgers' disappointing finish in 2007 - too much went on with the team for that to be the case. Everyone agrees that he's a nice guy.
All the criticism of Pierre since he signed with the Dodgers basically boils down to one simple, nothing-personal fact: He's not one of the team's best three outfielders. It's not that he's the devil, or that he isn't a better ballplayer than more than 99 percent of the people in the world, or that he doesn't have skills.
But Andre Ethier is a nice guy, too. Andre Ethier has skills. And at this time in their careers, Ethier, a rising player with a .279 equivalent average over the past two seasons (that's park-adjusted offensive value, including stolen bases or the lack thereof) and better defense, deserves to start over Pierre, who is over 30 with an EQA below .260 for the past two seasons.
There shouldn't even be a controversy over this, and the existence of one revolves around one factor - Pierre's contract - in the face of countless others. Between Ethier and Pierre, if you want a stolen base or maybe a bunt, Pierre's your guy. If you want anything else in the game of baseball, Ethier is.
Is Pierre "a strong asset" and "a championship-type player," as Ned Colletti asserts? Sure, why not. So is Ethier. So what's the point?
The Pierre debate isn't about Pierre in a vaccum. The Pierre debate is only about whether he deserves to play ahead of the other guy. You can value Pierre's game and still not think he's the team's best left fielder.
If respect is something to value in baseball, then it's time for Ethier to get his. Ethier has paid his dues; he's been a professional since 2003. He has never done anything to embarrass the Dodgers. He has had his struggles, which makes him pretty much like everyone else. He has pushed through those struggles to become the team's No. 1 option in left. Give Pierre's playing time to Ethier, and he will contribute the championship-type production that people like Colletti trot out in Pierre's defense. He'll do more.
It's not a philosophical debate; it's not a battle between scouts and statisticians. It's something there for everyone to see: Andre Ethier is a proven veteran, an asset and a readier contributor than Juan Pierre. If that's what the Dodgers want in left field, then they needn't look any further. We don't need the upcoming Spring Training to tell us that. We already know.
It seems to be Mr. Kotter doing play by play.
No visual confirmation yet.
If you lived on the West Coast, you could watch the St. Mary's-Pepperdine game. The Gaels lead by 30 at halftime.
St. Mary's has 82 points with 7 minutes left and is still ahead by 30.
http://weblogs.variety.com/season_pass/welcome_to_the_captain/index.html
Over on Tom Tango's (aka Tangotiger on BTF) blog, he talks about SS defense, and mentions Russell as one of the top 9 defensive SS since 1957.
I guess the name Bill Russell is synonymous with great defense.
I realize you were clearly going off on a tangent, but since a large point of my post is to point out that Pierre's personality positives are not unique, I don't want your comment to distract.
I don't think any Dodgers fan of the 1970s thought that Bill Russell was a good fielder. He was playing in an era when Dave Concepcion and Larry Bowa were considered the gold standard for good fielding shortstops in the NL.
Fans didn't think Russell dived for enough balls. In fact, he rarely dived. It could have just been that Russell was always positioned well.
Forgot the link: http://tinyurl.com/27gtra
It probably wouldn't play too well with Pierre, but at least it wouldn't make him look as stupid in the media's eyes.
Can't Colletti just ask Tony Reagins for suggestions on what to say to an expensive, displaced center fielder?
That's why I'm hoping the terms of the discussion change from whether the Dodgers should have signed Pierre - which is ancient history - to whether he simply belongs in the rotation.
http://tinyurl.com/2ytjy7
Was that a subliminal message, a way of sneaking in "Trot"?
;-)
No, but seriously, hear hear!
And speaking of TV, I just watched the latest episode of The Wire. Man, this season's crazy - probably the most darkly funny of all the show's seasons.
Agreed. Although it's quite possible Torre hasn't seen an inning of Andre Ethier. Let's hope he can put on a show before the charter leaves for Beijing.
I figure to stress out much less if I simply accept that JP is part of the team.
I commented in previous thread, too, btw, in case anyone's still hanging around there.
And only 2 episodes left
Pierre sounds more and more like his charactor will be tested on the bench. Wthier is better than Pierre and Ethier isn't that great.
After this Sunday's episode, there are three left. You can watch episode 8 on HBO On Demand.
There's a lot of stuff happening in that one. Without spoiling anything, I can say that the episode has an araber in it!
I loved Richard Belzer's quick cameo, a Homicide callback. "I used to own a bar."
You are correct, "a lot of stuff happening", but then, there are only 2 episodes left to tie up some of the current loose ends. That is, if in fact they intend to do so.
And then I'll learn what the heck an araber is.
I too am at the 4/5 point of the season for "The Wire." And I'm at the 4/9 part of the season for "In Treatment."
Although, I don't know if the latter is admirable.
Except you probably won't know what an araber is from watching Episode 8 of "The Wire." You had to have watched "Homicide: Life on the Street."
That's funny. I started watching it ON demand this year, and now never watch on Sunday's.
48 Okay, well then, no spoilers please! For those of us who still have 3 left to go. And then I'll learn what the heck an araber is.
Wouldn't dream of spoiling it for you. And, I too do not know what an araber is, and I watched the show. lol
Pierre - 729 (32.8%)
Gonzo - 509 (22.9%)
Ethier - 495 (22.3%)
Kemp - 301 (13.5%)
How will the PA be split in 2008? My best guess, barring injury of course, is:
Andruw - 30%
Kemp - 25%
Pierre - 25%
Ethier - 20%
For those who are curious:
http://tinyurl.com/2odjkd
If you don't want to know, don't click on the link.
In a cast replete with phenomenal characters, Michael K. Williams' portrayal of Omar Little is arguably the most unforgettable on HBO's critically lauded series The Wire.
During a conversation at the Czar Entertainment offices in Manhattan, Williams explores Omar's psyche, analyzes his own approach to playing the part, and tells the stories behind some of the series' most remarkable moments. Clearly a fan himself, the rising actor also offers valuable insight into The Wire's depiction of the streets of Baltimore, and the importance of exposing other criminal worlds that have an impact on the inner city drug trade.
Clark Johnson
Peter Gerety
Callie Thorne
Erik Todd Dellums
Toni Lewis
Clayton LeBouef
Richard Belzer
I realize this is supposed to be a thread about Etheir/Pierre, but I believe Jon has written what many of us have all agreed to at some point or another the past few months, and that is simply Ethier is one of the Dodgers top 3 outfielders, and Pierre is not.
I don't know how you could say you watched "Homicide" religiously and didn't know what an arabber was.
That is akin to saying you follow the Dodgers religiously and don't know who Takashi Saito is.
I agree with you. For some reason I didn't leave room for the other OFers. In 2007 for instance, there were 188 PA (8.5%) that went to the others
I vote:
Andruw - 33%
Kemp - 25%
Ethier - 25%
Young- 12%
Pierre- 5%
But about 10 years ago I went to sales training in Baltimore for two weeks. Got to see The Sox play the O's (Mo Vaghhn hit two rockets over my head and into the building behind the stadium- I was standing an inch away from the right field foul pole)and had alot of fun with a big group of young people from across the country who were my age.
We went out the warf area to drink and have fun, on the way home we got lost and 5 minuets away from a nice decent place was Hell. I swear what they show on the Wire regarding the streets of Baltimore is true. I was really scarred. Seriously. I am sure it's no different that LA, or East Oakland and many other places I have been..but you sorta have to go there. This was so close to places that you would bring grandma and the kids to. I was shocked.
Of course, it was also arguably the best episode out of the 122, thanks to Moses Gunn. It was probably either that one or the one where Vincent D'Onofrio gets hit by a subway train.
But you and Bob are both right. Few people saw the greatest episode of Homicide, but can you be a religious viewer of the show and not have "arabber" at least ring a bell?
Moses Gunn was born exactly six days before my mom was in the same city, St. Louis, and he passed away a little over four months after my mom passed away too.
And I bet Bubbles ends up sandwiched in between a subway train, too! Darn you, darn you all to heck!
The presence of an arabber won't make much of a difference. It's mainly just a shout out to "Homicide."
"Women's Murder Club" was really, really, really bad when I saw it.
Kyle Secor did have a pretty sizeable role in "Veronica Mars." He seems to get a lot of work.
No nonsense. Succinct. Direct. And right.
http://tinyurl.com/2gy2rb
http://tinyurl.com/ytrhuj
http://tinyurl.com/2o7qwx (Act 4)
So far I have 15 full offensive projections (only got Russell Martin from Bluebleeder), and I'd like to get as many as possible. My goal is to see if -- as a community -- we can project our team just as well as some of the modeling systems out there (Zips, CHONE, PECOTA, etc).
I would like predictions of BA/OBP/SLG for the 10 "regulars" on offense, and ERA/WHIP for as many pitchers as you deem necessary (ideally the 5-7 starters and 4-5 top relievers).
Please post any entries here in the comments, or over at True Blue LA -- http://tinyurl.com/2ry3m4 -- and I will take any and all entries posted by midnight Friday night (Feb 22).
Thanks!
but still, having two rabbits at the top of the lineup is appealing, and ought to result in more fastballs for the 3, 4, 5 hitters in the lineup...i guess it depends upon how well Jones, Martin, Kent will handle breaking pitches this year--i thought last year Jones looked pretty bad against curves
For Publisher in Los Angeles, Cuts and Worse
http://tinyurl.com/3yyzqa
but still, having two rabbits at the top of the lineup is appealing, and ought to result in more fastballs for the 3, 4, 5 hitters in the lineup
Last year on John Dewan's "stat of the week" on Acta Sports, there was a study of this, and it was found that while more fastballs are thrown with a SB threat on 1st, the difference is kind of small.
http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=141
Also, just anecdotally, I would think some of the gain from getting more fastballs to hit would be offset by getting distracted by the moving runner.
vr, Xei
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/02/19/juan-pierre-to-wave-no-trade-clause/
Surely the Dodgers can afford to eat 1/3-1/2 of his contract. This is a situation that has to be rectified. Andruw Jones is here for two years and is already talking about wanting an extension. Kemp and Ethier are still league minimum guys. Pierre is here for four years. This isn't a situation that goes away after next season. I don't see any solution that doesn't involve trading one of the heads on the Piethier monster.
This is an amazing post, and it addresses the situation perfectly. I will show it to anyone who comes in my office today!
This shows Bob has tasteful restrain.
Hmmm, what does it say about me--
I'm not as bullish on Matt Kemp's job security. I think he'll be 1 slump away (at least this year) from getting platooned with Ethier. I hope its not the case, but I really doubt Torre will be any different than other managers.
I'm probably reading too much into the "maybe" above, but to me this is one of my main beefs with JP: For a player who's supposed to excel at the "little things," too often he doesn't. He seemed to miss way too many bunt attempts, for one. He doesn't excel at base-stealing either, considering how often he gets caught.
If he had mastered "small ball," he would be easier to stomach. But the "small ball" approach is dubious enough when it works perfectly; when it results in a missed bunt or a caught stealing, it's pretty disastrous.
So, if you need a ground ball to advance the runner, JP can give you that. No one is better at hitting a ground ball. Other than that ....
he's had some previous bad seasons, but 81% last year was awesome considering how everyone knows that he is stealing.
Yea, that's called a partial no trade clause.
Furcal .290/.345/.405
Martin .305/.370/.468
Loney .315/.355/.492
Kemp .310/.360/.535
Kent .289/.365/.478
Jones .263/.340/.510
LaRoche .260/.355/.488
Pierre .277/.308/.322
Ethier .299/.370/.466
Nomar .289/.325/.412
Bills 3.25/1.25
Penny 3.45/1.30
Lowe 3.90/1.27
Kuroda 4.55/1.40
Schmidt 4.70/1.45
Saito 2.75/1.05
Broxton 2.25/1.10
Proctor 4.15/1.35
Beimel 3.20/1.28
Of course, sometimes he bunts so badly it ends up a double. So that counts for something.
Furcal .292/.360/.415
Martin .295/.370/.462
Loney .308/.362/.479
Kemp .292/.343/.499
Kent .275/.362/465
Jones .265/.339/.515
LaRoche .267/.345/.459
Pierre .290/.329/.333
Ethier .303/.368/.476
Nomar .276/.328/.425
"It was bad when I played last year like that," the switch-hitting Furcal said.
"Hitting right-handed, I felt better. But left-handed, I couldn't stand on my ankle. But I didn't say anything because I wanted to keep playing."
"After the season, I got a lot of treatment before I started playing (in the Dominican Winter League), and that made me feel so good."
Also, as Ned has said, when was the last time a team didn't need a fourth OF over the course of a 162 games. Granted, Young or even Repko may be a better alternitive but at some point we will need a fourth OF and there are worse alternatives than JP.
But Jon's post was not really about JP. JP is what he is. Its about Joe and Ned playing the better player-not the bigger contract. But if that player turns out to be someone other than Ethier (which I doubt) we should be prepared to live with it.
Furcal .275/.340/.415
Martin .290/.375/.440
Loney .280/.340/.440
Kemp .260/.330/.490
Kent .260/.350/450
Jones .250/.320/.480
LaRoche .265/.365/.415
Pierre .290/.330/.340
Ethier .275/.335/.435
Nomar .275/.330/.415
I have never understood why some switch hitters will continue to switch hit, when it is obvious they are better from one side then the other.
The usual response given by switch hitters is that they have done it so long that they don't think they can hit breaking pitches at all when they are batting on the "wrong" side.
The difference could very well be mental, rather than physical.
There have been switch hitters who have given up on the idea, such as JT Snow.
Torre on Pierre
He grinds out at-bats and can steal bases.
Certainly you'd like everyone to have a .400 on-base percentage, but that's not always the case.
He's a nuisance.
We want quality at-bats.
Then I noticed his OPS was .157 better at home vs the road (.765 vs .608). That really surprised me. Any ideas on why?
It's the guys who consistently hit poorly from the right side who mystify me.
My brother is out in St. Louis, so he has prepared himself for a few really bad years. I think it can be a great position to be in...just bring up your young talent and let them get some great experience without a ton of pressure, and who knows, they might do well.
Oh, and it looks like the Joe Beimel fan might go to Vero!
it should say the few projections i've looked at today.
Good point. I imagine it will be easy to find some cheap seats on ebay this year.
career minor league ISOd- 81
2007- 90
2006 AA- 110
2006 AAA- 78
2005 AA- 94
He's been right around there.
My guess for 2008 is an ISOd of 78 or so.
Looking back, that is probably a tad high but in his prime, Laroche should be between 80-100 annually.
Maybe Jason Giambi, but that's only 26 million.
The last two years in the minors, LaRoche's OBP has been .090 ('07) and .095 ('06) higher than his BA. That's pretty close to .100, though.
FREAK INJURY FOR PENCE (10:52 a.m. ET)
Right fielder Hunter Pence crashed through a sliding glass door in the bathroom of his spring training home, leaving him with multiple cuts that will sideline him for a week.
Pence spent the night in an emergency room after the incident Monday evening. He arrived at camp Tuesday with a gash on his right index finger and a brace on his left knee.
"It's pretty silly that this kind of a freak accident happened," Pence said.
Pence said he was in a hot tub at the home where he's staying and got out to use the bathroom. He had left the door open, but didn't noticed that a friend had just closed it. He hit it with his shoulder, leg and head and it shattered.
"Having seen him run and hit two days ago, I don't anticipate that missing a week in February is going to affect him at all come March 31st in San Diego," general manager Ed Wade told ESPN.com.
Why should the Dodgers have to worry about coddling him? I thought that's what you did with difficult players.
I like JP for the 10 or so games a year Jones rests and for pinch running assignment now and then. He is a great 4th OF if one of the first 4 goes on the DL.
Couldn't agree more. This is ultimately going to fall to Torre's feet. He has a reputation as a player's manager. We'll see how he handles it; if he sits Pierre for a game or two at the outset, or if he jumps through all kinds of hoops to keep the consecutive games played streak alive.
For some reason, I'm immediately skeptical of the Hunter Pence story in 154 . It screams to me of "I was washing my truck" or "I hurt my hand when I dropped a glass in my hotel room". I don't have any reason not to take Pence at his word though, and I feel bad for my immediate mental dismissal of his story.
Dave Niehaus (Mariners Broadcaster) elected to the Hall of Fame
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080219&content_id=2379444&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
That is a very cool story. I enjoyed his work on M's games last year (Extra Innings). I did not know that he had some minor stints with the Dodgers and UCLA. In addition he was Dick Enberg's partner for Angels broadcasts for a good seven years.
Also, my prediction of .280/.360/.460 is clearly the best and most accurate one :).
I like Niehaus too. I kind of like his "Get out the rye bread and the mustard grandma! It's Grand Salami time!!!" call, even if it is a bit hokey.
http://tinyurl.com/2qdbzl
I thought it was cool.
"Sick Pence None The Richer"
Dave Niehaus was not elected to the Hall of Fame. He received the Ford C. Frick Award.
It's an entirely different thing all together.
Video Furcal got a horrible jump on that pitch!
At least that is how he is introduced in every story about him.
Oooooooooooooops. Sorry guys. Bob is right.
Bob is right
There should be a built-in macro for that on Baseball Toaster.
If you're a SABR member and you say a broadcaster or writer is a member of the Hall of Fame, a strike team is dispatched to your home to remind you not to say that.
Some people think the organization could spend its money more wisely, but that's what the dues pay for.
Do we (SABR) debate on whether or not guys named by the Veteran's Committee are members of the Hall of Fame too?
That's an awesome video clip. In fact that whole page is very good. It makes me want to go buy the game.
The guy who narrates the video must be Matt Vasgersian. It also notes that the "broadcast team" for the game will be Matt, Rex Hudler, and Dave Campbell.
Fortunately, you can turn the announcers "off".
Do we (SABR) debate on whether or not guys named by the Veteran's Committee are members of the Hall of Fame too?
Only on days that end in "y".
DHL
Kevin, welcome to the DHL-hating club, which is getting big enough that we probably need membership cards soon. What did they do? Miss a pickup? Hide the package in some random place in your yard where you'd never find it? Deliver it to the right number except on the wrong street? Leave it with your grumpy neighbor when you weren't home and not tell you about it? Or simply forget to deliver it at all? All of the above and more have happened to me. Unfortunately, they are the "Official Express Delivery and Logistics Provider" of my main client, so I end up having to use them a lot.
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