Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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Perhaps you've noticed by now that, based on when Dodgers give their first Spring Training interviews of the year to the press, there are days, days in which every beat writer's daily report focuses on the same person. There was Joe Torre Day, and Jason Schmidt Day, and Juan Pierre Day, and so on.
Today will be Jeff Kent Day. He has arrived at Dodgertown, and here's the first sampling of what he had to say, from Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise:
"I've just been reading everything on the Internet and the magazines, and you can't believe half of everything you read. A lot of good talk.
"Gentlemen, my frustrations don't lie with anybody. They lie with wins and losses. ..."
The rest continues at Leung's blog. Updates from the other beat writers sure to come, though perhaps there isn't much more to add. In fact, if everyone (including me) agreed to put last year's controversy to rest, that would be a good sign for 2008. Tony Jackson of the Daily News might be going that route, leading his morning blog post with Kent but focusing less on him than Joe Beimel's hair and Internet groupie Troy from West Virginia, as well as Jason Repko's impending fatherhood. (I feel bad for Repko that he has to focus on fighting for a job during those first few weeks of parenting.)
* * *
In three of six months last season, the Dodgers had an on-base percentage of below .300 in the leadoff spot. (May and July were much better.) Just one of the many things you can find out from the new batting-order outcomes tool at Baseball-Reference.com.
Job battle to track: There are four outfielders for three spots, and it's excruciatingly clear to anyone familiar with baseball who ranks fourth among them. However, the likelihood that the Dodgers relegate Juan Pierre to a bench role is nil. Every PA he takes from Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier is a mistake.
One move to make: Trading Pierre for whatever he'll bring back, even if it means eating $10-15 million. Pierre would actually be a decent extra outfielder; it's just not likely that the Dodgers would do that, or that he would be all that happy in the role. Having Pierre around just increases the chance that he'll take time away from better players. There are people who don't like it when we say players aren't good, and saying this about a known nice guy like Pierre tends to fire up the opponents of performance analysis. Playing him regularly on a corner is just baseball malpractice, however, and the Dodgers have to avoid that temptation.
Ned Colletti has squandered a fair amount of scouting director Logan White's work in his time as the Dodgers' GM, but he avoided doing so this winter. Thanks to that, he heads into the spring with his best team, and with the best chance of having that team play. There remains the need to push Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra into supporting roles, the latter so that OBP machine Andy LaRoche can take over at third base. The "right" Dodger lineup can win 94 games and the division. How Joe Torre apportions playing time in a situation not dissimilar to the 1996 Yankees will determine whether the Dodgers fulfill their potential.
But do people want the Dodgers to extend Furcal at this juncture? I personally wouldn't mind, as I am not confident that both Hu and Abreu will turn out to be better than average middle infielders, although I'm pretty sure at least one of them will be.
That makes Hu a bench player if Abreu takes over second in 09. It also puts a fire under both Abreu and Hu to work hard to win the job. Hu has been sought after by other clubs and could be a value part of a necessary future trade. Signing Furcal makes sense to me, 3 years for 39 mil again?
I don't know what Torre's other options were in lieu of Jeter, Rivera and Pettite.
I think it should be clear by now that we need to be building a war chest for Martin, Bills, Broxton, Kemp, Loney, et al. They are going to be commanding real money before we know it, and we don't want any unnecessary contracts getting in the way.
Agreed. So what about a front loaded instead of back loaded contract extension for Furcal?
"Shortstop Rafael Furcal was able to make a statement upon reporting to spring training that he couldn't make at any time last season: He's completely healthy.
"I'm feeling good, I'm feeling 100 percent," Furcal said Tuesday before participating in his first workout with the Los Angeles Dodgers. "If I'm healthy, I can do anything."
3 more years of the 2003 - 2006 Furcal-Sign me up.
3 more years of the 2007 Furcal-Let's try someone else.
Rafy is a solid SS and I was happy when we signed him for his 28-30 year old seasons. I would not be as happy giving him the same money for his 31-33 year old seasons since his legs are a big part of his offense and they have been a big reason for his lack of production 9 out of the 12 months he's played for us. If we didn't have options it would change the equation but we do.
I thought the baby was just due, but not actually out and about yet.
TC, those are good points about the 21st Century Yankees.
The Yankees did win a Championship in 2000. Does that count?
My thought process includes that he's not going to command as much now as he will after a solid season. It stablizes an infield that should have Loney, Abreu/Hu, and LaRoche in '09 with one proven leader.
I like Hu's potential, he is a blue chip prospect. I agree that we need Abreu or Hu to take over second base in 09, we shouldn't extend Kent, he is near retirement and not worth what it would cost to pay him in addition to blocking the younger guys. Counting on a very young infield can pay off entirely by passing on Furcal, especially in terms of payroll. I just think we would be hedging a bit in a smart way, especially if we need free agent pitching in '09.
Furcal provides the type of leadoff bat we need. He has post season experience, he was our MVP in '06. Letting him walk because Hu is in the wings isn't the no brainer some around here think.
I would be very pleased to see Furcal stick around. I love the post game interviews with him. You can always count on him beginning an answer with "Yeah. Well, you know ..."
I'll never forget his first game in Dodger blue, he got on base five times.
I just asked John Sickels who his breakout Dodger prospect for this year would be, and he said Ivan DeJesus. That means we have two top-notch defensive-minded SS prospects coming through the system.
I guess it all boils down to how much we all like Furcal. I'd much rather extend Penny or even Jones [when the time comes] than devote our resources to a player who may or may not even be needed next year. How about this?: We offer him arbitration, and if he accepts it, we ride him for one more year. If not, we get draft pick compensation. I like Furcal, but I'm truly excited about Hu's arrival.
I like Furc, but a half season could show where he really is at, and a bit more of what we have in Hu. If I thought he would really give us a better price to do this now, after a bad year, I would consider it.
But that's a joke!
Were those the only times he got on base in April of 06?
If we do go with Hu next year, who bats leadoff? Ethier, Pierre, Abreu? Does it even matter?
But I'm excited and hopeful about them both, too.
Either way, even if this is his last year with LA, I expect a real comeback from Furcal.
1st Loney
2nd Abreu
3rd LaRoche
SS Hu
LF Ethier
CF Jones
RF Kemp
I'd like to see this lineup in 2009.
Very good defense and lots of pop.
After this season, we basically have two spots opening up through probable retirement and free agency.
I wouldn't outright dismiss a contract extension for Furcal at this very moment because the two young players who have been groomed to become the Dodgers two middle infield fixtures both have that plate discipline issue that needs to be worked out.
I like Raffy a lot. I love the way he plays offensively and defensively. I'm not ready to kick him out to the pasture just yet but I also would not be willing to negotiate an extension before the season. We need to see how Hu and Abreu both play this season and if they both show signs of actually "getting it" when it comes to plate discipline.
1. Penny [perhaps newly extended]
2. Bills
3. Kuroda
4. Schmidt
5. Kershaw
Honorable Mention: Kuo, McDonald, Meloan, ?
Extend Penny.
but like i said if schmidt shows he's not finished that will have a big influence on what to do with lowe, also kershaw needs to show improvement with his control this year in the minors or i don't know if he'll be ready for '09
I agree about the money. No way we pay him the same premium in any new deal. I think a big part of why he received the deal he did at the time was to not only entice him to come to LA, but for Colleti to make a bit of a splash and show other "premier" (I hate that term) free agents that LA is not the place for proven (I hate that term too) guys to come and die anymore, ala Brian Jordan, Robin Ventura, Fred McGriff and so on.
We also have to take into account injuries. Freak injuries are known to happen all the time, just look at the current state of Hunter Pence for an instant example, so I like the idea of having depth by extending Furcal. Maybe Abreu becomes the next great utility guy and Hu is the stud, or vice versa, or maybe neither of the two can hit for an extended period of time in the majors. Maybe they both just absolutely kill it and we have a plethora of talented middle infielders. There are too many what if's to even contemplate. For fear of the unknown, and Furcal's track record, extending him 2-3 years isn't a bad idea I don't think in the long run. And if doesn't pan out, we can always trade him.
Furcal knew he'd be close enough to his prime to demand another long-term deal. The Dodgers knew they'd have a capable replacement waiting the wings and be in a strong position to bargain.
If Raffy wants another year, go for it. But that won't cut it. To lock him up, you probably need a 4-year deal. That's what he'll get in free agency.
I don't see how the Dodgers can do that right now, unless they simply don't think Hu has the goods.
Nothing against Lowe who has been very consistent as a Dodger but if I'm going to spend money on pitching, I'd rather spend it on CC then Lowe.
Bingo
James Loney has lobbied that the Dodgers do not turn Furcal into a 2nd baseman. He can't find a sponge strong enough to protect his fingers from the howitzer throws of Rafy from that short distance.
That seems to be right on the money. I hadn't considered all that but I think you are indeed correct.
Sabathia
Penny
Bills
Kershaw
Kuroda/Schmidt
Maybe, but Lowe has said repeatedly how he misses East Coast baseball. I'll be surprised if he doesn't take his sportscaster and head back East.
Are you holding it against CC that he hasn't had arm trouble yet? Talk to Mickey Lolich and David Wells about LH pitchers with weight problems.
Yes, we'd all love it if everyone took two year deals, but the only way you can get premium talent from outside the organization is by paying out the nose. You can't have a good team without good players, otherwise you end up like the Blue Jays, or the more recent renditions of the Dodgers. (Yes, I realize that we made the playoffs twice recently, but that's largely because of a terrible division). Hopefully the emergence of our prospects stops the trend.
That would mean Ned was thinking 3 years into the future and they felt Hu was the guy back when he just a single A player. Ned has proven that he just hates long term deals. Which makes the whole JP thing even harder to understand. He held the line on Furcal, Schmidt, A Jones, Nomar, and Kuroda but couldn't hold the line on JP?
As far as Lowe goes, he's been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over recent years, but locking him up to another long term deal would make no sense. He's just going to get more and more injury prone, riskier to keep around. You thank him for his time, take the draft pick and move on. There's also the little matter of the Kershaws and McDonalds of the system knocking on the door.
Derek Lowe is a Tiger next year. Give me CC or give me death.
Didn't Ned think there was some competition for Pierre? I thought it was the Giants? So he beefed up his offer to make it more attractive to Pierre and not get "burned" (I find that so funny to type when we're talking about Pierre) by SF. You are right though, it seems to be the only FA contract he has awarded of late that bucks his current trend.
Nada, there is not a door made that can hold the minotaur back from being in the rotation in 2009 unless it was built by Tommy John.
Like I said, those numbers are Hu's best case scenario right now. We can expect that from Furcal if he's healthy.
72 Someone will get hurt. I don't expect Kershaw to be fully entrenched in the rotation until mid 2009.
if you sign CC Kershaw won't be in the rotation until 2010
That's not necessarily a bad thing, is it? Kershaw will be 22 in 2010. It might be good to trade his age 21 season for his age 27 season.
I would not re-sign Lowe, and I'd wait and see about Furcal (mostly to see how Hu & Abreu develop). I would offer both arbitration and be thrilled if they accept, but more thrilled if the Dodgers finally decide to go over slot with those 4 picks.
Interesting hypothesis. If it's true, I despise the Giants even more now.
Does it make your team better for the duration of the contract? If it doesn't, does it make your team so much better in the good years that it's worth the downside?
Sabathia qualifies for at least one of those. We have the money to have Sabathia and our young guys, so I don't think it's an issue.
I don't think it's possible to sign Lowe to a short term deal. He will be heading into his age 36 season (2009) looking for most likely his last big contract. He will get 3 or 4 years at at least $10m annually, and I'm not willing to give him that.
247. Bob Timmermann 2008-02-19 22:32:53
245 The boxscore in the LA Times shows Jim Cleamons with ZERO points in that game.
Ah, why memories shouldn't be trusted. Perhaps it was that we were cheering for Cleamons to get into the game and score as he was the only player who hadn't? Did get a shot and miss?
Cleamons was 0 for 3 from the floor I believe.
Glavine signed for 3/$35 (which became 4/$45) for his age 37-40 seasons.
Also, since Santana extended with the Mets, the 2009 FA class got that much weaker. Sabthia's the big prize, obviously, but here are the other top FA pitchers next year:
Lowe (age 36 in 2009)
Sheets (30, with an injury history)
Pedro (37 with an injury history)
Glavine (43, probably will retire)
Pettitte (37, will he retire?)
Wolf (32, with an injury history)
Lowe is looking pretty good in that market, and could be as high as the 2nd best pitcher on the market depending on the health of some of those guys.
2009
Sabathia
Penny
Bills
Kuroda
Schmidt/Kershaw
2010
Sabathia
Bills
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw
That seems to be the only way that even Colletti sees that Hu is good enough to let Furcal go.
Penny is only under contract through 2009.
...which means I left Garland off the FA list for next year. He'll be 29 in 2009, and his 2008 will go a long way in determining his rank on the FA market.
Last 3 years:
Lowe: 639.1 IP, 118 ERA+
Garland: 640.2 IP, 114 ERA+
Given that Garland is 7 years younger than Lowe, he is more likely to be coveted than Lowe. Still, my point stands that Lowe will garner a lot of attention next offseason.
Shawon Dunston! Comedy. And yet he would be exactly the type player, if not THE player Ned would seek. Not comedy.
First half of 2006, he was adjusting. 2007, he foolishly played through the ankle injury. But when there were no excuses for three months, he was incredible.
Hu and Abreu are just never going to do that, ever.
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