Cabrera plays in a pitchers park, Howard plays in the most hitter freindly park in baseball. Cabrera is also three years younger Howard's 2006 was better than any of Miguel's years, but Cabrera's three best years are much better than Howard's second best, plus Miguel Cabrera plays a harder position (poorly, but Howard is terrible at first base).

Does anyone happen to have 4 tickets to tomorrow's UCLA game burning a hole in their pocket? You may consider Logikreader a potential buyer, so I would be interested in taking them off your hands.

---

Jon, I like the name of the new site a lot! I am also impressed at their comprehensive analysis.

Miguel Cabrera made $7.4m in 2007 in his first arb year. I would argue that Pujols looms larger with his $7m figure in his first arb year of 2004 (the $7m would have been a losing amount, but was part of a 7/$100m contract). These are the "records" for 1st year arb earners.

But, the key is they had 3 full years of service time, which is one year ahead of Howard. For Howard to make $10m now puts him at least $13m in his 4th year (the same spot Pujols & Cabrera were in with their records of $7m & $7.4m).

Essentially, Howard will have ended up doubling the record, which is absurd and doesn't bode well for clubs with a lot of arb eligible players in the pipeline -- like the Dodgers.

In arbitration, service time is as large a factor -- or larger -- than performance.

Why hasn't Jason Schmidt received the same heat Carl Pavano got/gets? Is it a coastal thing? Are we that laid back?

If Young can accrue his 6 years of MLB service time, he will be able to put himself on the market 11 years after signed his first professional contract.

Is $6/$8.5/$11/$13 out of the question? Heading into next years' arb hearing, Martin is likely to have 2 all-star appearances, 1-2 silver sluggers, and would be considered the best catcher in the NL if not the game.

That's 8.5/11/13 for his 4-6 years.

Mauer got 3.75/6.25/10.5 for his 4-6 years.

McCann got 3.5/5.5/6.5 for his 4-6 years.

Thanks a lot, unnamed arbitrator!

Delwyn Young to start working out at 3B

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers

also, depending on how schmidt progresses and how kershaw progresses signing lowe or cc may not be necisarry.

The Dodgers are in a position where they should always go after the best player available. The combation of player development and budget we have should make us near unstoppable. It should at least mean that we can stomp the teams in our division with half our payroll. If you start going after budget guys, you lose the advantages that money brings.

They will still have Billingsly, Penny(team option), and Kuroda, if Schmidt is healthy, he will be on board for 2009. And you still have Kuo.

Whether or not they go for C.C. or similar type free agent will depend greatly on the progress of the young pitchers.

http://tinyurl.com/25vvke

Broxton, Martin and Ethier will be the first ones down this road, no real worries with Broxton and Ethier (unless Andre has a monster year) but Martin being a catcher puts him in a different category as long as he has another year like last year. But even Russ isn't going to burst the bank like Howard.

8 "The Sizemore and Tulowitzki deals look more and more brilliant with the Howard arbitration decision."

And so does the Russell Martin deal.

Oh, wait.

And to me, the whole Martin extension non-talk story probably falls somewhere in the middle, obviously Martin and agent want the Dodgers to make an offer first and it sounds like the Dodgers wanted to feel out what Martin and agent are looking for.

It does not sound like an impossibility to fix and the Dodgers have not announced that they have just renewed Martin's contract which is their right. Let's see how the next few weeks go.

Wasn't it Charlie O. Finley that wanted to make every player a free agent every year? And wasn't Miller secretly scared that the other owners would sign on?

After all, if the baseball market is flooded with hundreds of players every year, won't that increase in supply depress salaries?

Like I say, I could be so, so wrong about this. If I am, please explain.

Of course, some will be leaving. The story of building a long-lasting homegrown team of stars like in the 70s is nice, but it's a little fanciful in this era. If I had to guess, I'd bet Broxton will be the first one out of town, just by virtue of being a reliever.

Clearly, the ruling in the Howard case didn't give much weight to the [crucial] issue of service time. It set a precedent that teams will now have to deal with when attempting to sign their young players.

So it is teams like the Royals and Rays who make money from all those Yankee and Red Sox hats and jerseys sold throughout the country.

51 Certainly Howard's arbitration ruling set a new ceiling but really, it is a pretty high bar, HR leader, MVP seasons. Not too many 3rd year players have those type of credentials.

For example in 2005 Broxton appeared in 14 games. I don't know how many days he was on the 25 man roster. I don't think 2005 counted.

Could 2 partial years count as 1 year?

Broxton spent most of 2006 on the roster, so that brief run in 2005 made it a cumulative year.

Service time is days spent on the 25-man roster or MLB DL, which is why Scott Boras was fighting for Tony Abreu to be on the DL rather than optioned down to AAA. 172 days equals one year of service time.

Both Martin and Ethier will fall into the Super Two category for arbitration, assuming they spend all year on the 25 man roster, they will have 2 years and 150+ days of service time. That will put them in the group eligible for arbitration time. Chad Billingsly will fall a 20 or so days short of possibly being in that group.

Starters
C - Martin - $8m (4th year; 2nd year arb)
1B - Loney - $3.5m (1st year arb)
2B - Abreu - $500k (3rd year)
SS - Hu - $400k (2nd year)
3B - LaRoche - $500k (3rd year)
LF - Ethier - $4m (4th year; 2nd year arb)
CF - Pierre - $10m
RF - Kemp - $3.5m (1st year arb)
Total Starters - $30.4m

Bench
OF - Delwyn Young - $500k (3rd year -- I think I left him off 2009)
OF - Repko - $2m (3rd year arb)
C - John Q. Backstop - $1m
1B - Mark Sweeney Type - $1m
IF - Lucille II Type - $1m
Total Bench - $5.5m

Starting Pitching
Billingsley - $4m (1st year arb)
Kuroda - $13m
Kershaw - $400k (1st full year)
Kuo - $1m (1st year arb)
Withrow/Elbert - $400k
Total Starting Pitching - $18.8m

Bullpen
Broxton - $4m (2nd year arb)
Proctor - $3m (3rd year arb)
Brazoban - $2.5m (3rd year arb)
Meloan - $500k (3rd year)
Seanez Type - $1m
Seanez Type - $1m
McDonald Type - $500k
Total Bullpen - $12.5m

Detritus
Nomar - $1.25m (part of deferred signing bonus)
Total Detritus - $1.25m

Total 2010 Payroll (estimated) - $68.45m

OK, now we have some money to spend! I'm guessing one starting pitcher and one OF (Andruw redux?).

i love it, did you ask riles if you could use that term?

i'm assuming T.O. is the highest paid WR but i don't know the other behind him

And Johnny Brox will be our closer in '10

>> Torre says it will create more versatility for a guy who is out of minor-league options and a virtual lock to make the club as a fifth outfielder. <<

75 I don't think he meant for anyone to take that comment that seriously.

And you're calling other people naive?

Ever heard of pitch counts for minor leaguers?

Kershaw is also on a strict pitch count and not many low-A guys throw huge innings per game.

guys with high walk rates and high K rates usually don't go as long as most pitchers.

But the key thing to keep in mind is he's 19. That really can't be said enough. Nineteen-year-old pitchers improve. Especially in the control department.

Does anyone know the final resolution to this disagreement? I remember reading that Boras was protesting Ned's decision not to place Abreu on the Major League Disable List. Also that Abreu had an operation during the off season for a sports hernia. But I've not seen anything in writing whereby Abreu was retroactively placed on the Major League DL for service time purposes. What happened?

C.C. Sabathia averaged 4.48 BB/9 in the minors through age 19. He led the majors in IP last year at age 26, and has averaged 6.42 IP/start in his career.

Kershaw has averaged 4.08 BB/9 in the minors through age 19.

Pitchers, especially really good ones, have a tendency to improve when they're 19.

Sabathia walked 4.44 batters per nine innings. Kershaw was at 4.94. Sabathia's better, but it's fairly close. Of course, Sabathia is now probably the best control pitcher in all of baseball. And with 241 innings pitched this year, it's fair to say he goes pretty deep into games.

I think at some point we might hear about a resolution to this, but it might be that people on both sides are ready just to put it behind them.

http://sportsreport.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/22/poll-nomar-off-the-bench/

From a mound in a tucked-away corner of Vero Beach, Greg Miller nods at you. (Yes, yes, injury, I know.)

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-cup23feb23,1,4466621.story

http://tinyurl.com/38a7jo

Or has the arbitrator determined that Howard's value is > $8.5 M and, therefore, Howard's number is closer? (In which case, the arbitrator has probably overvalued Howard.) I still wonder if the Phils had to go much higher to be closer to the arbitrator's perception of Howard's true value.

"Kemp, the 25-year-old right fielder with a reputation for being cocky and a knack for making mistakes..."

The other two games in that series were a lot worse.

Odds of winning NL MVP Award, 2008

Russell Martin 40:1
Matt Kemp 60:1
Andruw Jones 75:1
Brad Penny 75:1
Chad Billingsley 100:1
Jeff Kent 100:1
James Loney 100:1
Takashi Saito 100:1
Rafael Furcal 125:1
Hiroki Kuroda 150:1
Derek Lowe 200:1
Nomar Garciaparra 350:1
Andy LaRoche 350:1
Juan Pierre 400:1
Andre Ethier 500:1
Jason Schmidt 500:1
Jonathan Broxton 750:1
Clayton Kershaw 750:1
Delwyn Young 750:1
Tony Abreu 1,000:1
Chin-Lung Hu 5,000:1
Hong-Chih Kuo 5,000:1
Mark Sweeney 7,500:1
Scott Proctor 10,000:1
Gary Bennett 50,000:1
Yhency Brazoban 50,000:1
Ramon Martinez 50,000:1
Jason Repko 50,000:1
Rudy Seanez 50,000:1

where did you get those #'s from?

I'd say Furcal.

Rajai Davis + Dave Roberts = makes me appreciate Ether + even Pierre that much more.

Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

>> Although Penny's second-half drop in production wasn't as bad as many owners feared, the fact that he walked 39 hitters against 53 strikeouts while allowing a composite .281 BAA leaves me a little uneasy. <<

Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles Dodgers

## I'm reticent to join the parade until we get deeper into the spring. First, the surgery undergone by Schmidt last season was by no means minor. Will it necessarily translate into an immediate return of the velocity that had dropped off so precipitously? Additionally, Schmidt was already two years removed from his dominant 2004 season when the Dodgers opened up their wallet and had seen a drop in his strikeout rate with an increased walk rate in his final year in San Francisco. ##

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7825400

LOLz.

Dodgers are 6-19 in San Diego with yours truly in attendance.

Penny 3.65 1.31
Billingsley 3.60 1.32
Lowe 3.75 1.27
Kuroda 3.95 1.34
Schmidt 4.20 1.40
Loaiza 4.85 1.50
Kuo 5.50 1.60
Saito 2.25 0.95
Broxton 3.00 1.15
Beimel 4.10 1.32
Proctor 3.60 1.29
Seanez 4.25 1.42

I find it surprising that you think Kemp capable of hitting a many as 40 home runs and stealing 25 bases in 2008 and yet you were willing to include him in a trade for two years of Eric Bedard.

Full Disclosure: Matt Kemp is my favorite player. :-)

Hey, all of that could happen, except for the last part.

>> What is likely to decide this team's season are the strides made by young players Matt Kemp, James Loney and Chad Billingsley. <<

## Ethier's certainly trade bait, and more in demand than Pierre due to his age, but if there's one L.A. outfielder you don't look to draft, it's Ethier. ##

http://tinyurl.com/3e4r5z

http://tinyurl.com/2pwhsv

>> In the eyes of some observers, the Dodgers were guilty of trying to rush promising young pitchers Edwin Jackson and Greg Miller.

It doesn't look like they'll be accused of that with Kershaw or Scott Elbert. <<

http://tinyurl.com/yt9b4h

Was your old computer even crashing in target disk mode?

Doing a little googling, it looks like the (old) computer should be able to tell you why it's shutting down. The "system.log" file (in the /var/log directory) should tell you if it's a heat problem. Unless I'm right about its being haunted, then there's no telling what it'll say.

From what I remember (of the comments) it was a really old one.

Hey, I am here. What are we trying to locate?

I was shocked to see that after 90 days of support with Microsoft, I would have to pay 55.95 for customer service/support through the Microsoft website. What is up with that?

If you look in your Applications | Utilities folder, you will find something called "Console". If you open that, it presents your "log files" to you in a viewer.

>>"It's like being a kid," Garciaparra said. "I played everywhere. My favorite baseball player was Bugs Bunny. He played all nine positions in one game."<<

http://tinyurl.com/2fc2y7

Nomar could've been our backup catcher over Gary Bennett! I'd be down with that.

How much d'ya think UPS would charge to ship that to Nevada?

On another tack it might be the firewire, which I think you could get around by hooking it up to a hub/router. And seeing if Network connection would work, I'm pretty sure you can do that. What was the old OS?

I have to go put the 6 yo to bed and most likely I will crash as well, if you want you can email me. Although it sounds like there might be more Mac tech savvy people around.

New post up top.

That record collection got me remembering that I wanted to try and remember and write down every concert/music show I've been to. I was trying to think what was really the first and I'm sure it was something weird in say 7-9th grade. I saw Yvonne Elliman when I was 11 I think. After that the first thing I really remember was Eric Clapton's Slowhand tour. But not because of Clapton, Muddy Waters opened for him! I'd never heard of him then and he blew me away. Only thing close was John Lee Hooker much later. That really upped my opinion of Clapton that he would follow Muddy. I know Winter and Russell did simlar things, but that was so cool. I saw both those guys, too. (and Edgar, too).