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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
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5) discussing politics
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Projectile Missives
2008-02-23 00:05
by Jon Weisman

Twenty-one readers gave individual player predictions for the coming season to Dodger Thoughts commenter Eric Stephen. He averaged them out, and here's what he got:

OPS:
.862 James Loney
.858 Matt Kemp
.854 Andruw Jones
.833 Russell Martin
.823 Jeff Kent
.820 Andy LaRoche
.812 Andre Ethier
.780 Rafael Furcal
.745 Nomar Garciaparra
.697 Juan Pierre

Batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage
Loney - .311/.368/.494
Kemp - .298/.349/.509
Andruw - .260/.346/.508
Martin - .291/.369/.464
Kent - .278/.356/.467
LaRoche - .271/.360/.460
Ethier - .290/.354/.458
Furcal - .290/.355/.425
Nomar - .286/.334/.413
Pierre - .296/.336/.361

ERA/Walks + hits per inning pitched
Brad Penny - 3.63/1.31
Chad Billingsley - 3.40/1.26
Derek Lowe - 3.80/1.29
Hiroki Kuroda - 4.14/1.35
Jason Schmidt - 4.29/1.37
Hong-Chih Kuo - 4.43/1.39
Esteban Loaiza - 4.94/1.51
Takashi Saito - 2.48/1.02
Jonathan Broxton - 2.50/1.07
Joe Beimel - 3.81/1.31
Scott Proctor - 3.71/1.33
Rudy Seanez - 4.84/1.53

Comments (53)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-02-23 02:05:33
1.   Greg Brock
These are rather optimistic projections.

I picked the Dodgers to finish third last year, and got grief (they finished fourth), and I'm much more positive about this season (I think they'll win the West), but some of these predictions are way too Pollyanna.

If Loney, Nomar, and former CF that is now the LF put those numbers up, well, I'll eat my hat.

2008-02-23 02:34:45
2.   Eric Enders
"The Mariners have signed catcher Mike Kinkade, a former Washington State star who last played in the major leagues in 2003 with the Dodgers, to a minor league contract."

Yep. Catcher Mike Kinkade.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20080223/SPORTS/990071336/1004/SPORTS

2008-02-23 05:46:01
3.   Gen3Blue
Many thanks to Eric. It puts a new perspective on things in some ways. Of course I hope Greg has to eat his hat(I hope it isn't too substantial or coon-skin).
I guess, because most of us our fans, it must have a component of what each player is capable of in an ideal year.
2008-02-23 06:42:06
4.   Daniel Zappala
I hope we don't find out whether we need him, but it would be a great story if Lindsey could make it some day.
2008-02-23 06:56:11
5.   Ken Noe
"Nomar's experience will certainly play into this thing," [Torre] said. "There are going to be tough decisions here, and when you have a lot of young players, they can't all play." But Torre said he also wants his young players to gain experience. "We want to make sure we accelerate these kids as much as we can," he said.

http://tinyurl.com/2qt536

2008-02-23 07:14:25
6.   MollyKnight
Nice bit from Dylan Hernandez in the LAT about Jones and Kemp bonding:

The 23-year-old right fielder with a reputation for being cocky and a knack for making mistakes on the basepaths was to the 30-year-old Jones a "real bright kid with a good head on his shoulders."

In Jones, Kemp said, he has found a mentor who he says understands him. He traded phone numbers with Jones at the camp in Dodger Stadium and regularly exchanged calls and text messages with him in the month leading up to spring training.

2008-02-23 08:53:02
7.   Bluebleeder87
I gotta agree with Brock on this one specially Bills #'s, I'm expecting more like a 3.80-3.90 ERA from him. I didn't get to see all of the batting lines but Loney's line looks pretty much on the money.
2008-02-23 08:58:43
8.   Suffering Bruin
Always looking on the brighter side of life these days, let's take into account that if these projections hold true, this year gonna be berry, berry fun.
2008-02-23 09:01:11
9.   imperabo
Those batting lines don't look overly optimistic to me. Loney's represents a 50 point drop in his career OPS.
2008-02-23 09:11:21
10.   Disabled List
Those are about the best numbers I'm hoping for out of everybody. I actually dare to dream a little higher with LaRoche. A .500 SLG from him may be unlikely, but I don't think it's wildly unrealistic.

In any case, I think he ought to have a higher SLG than Loney, who I agree is probably pegged a bit too high.

2008-02-23 09:19:14
11.   Disabled List
It will be interesting to see if these aggregate numbers, picked out of thin air by a bunch of internet yahoos, are more accurate than the highfalutin' projection systems like PECOTA.
2008-02-23 09:21:18
12.   Disabled List
Um, 11 came across a little harsh. I use the term "internet yahoos" in the most self-deprecating manner possible.
2008-02-23 09:32:24
13.   MollyKnight
37 days until the season starts. (!!)
2008-02-23 09:41:01
14.   Jon Weisman
I think the predictions on optimistic but not outlandish - and obiviously they don't factor in games played.

Which, after all, do you think are the most pie-in-the-sky?

2008-02-23 09:41:19
15.   Daniel Zappala
This is a strange definition of hope. If I was going based purely on hope:

.950 James Loney
1.025 Matt Kemp
.920 Andruw Jones
.885 Russell Martin
.900 Jeff Kent
.910 Andy LaRoche
.890 Andre Ethier
.880 Rafael Furcal

2008-02-23 09:49:29
16.   ToyCannon
Greg hedged his bet by including JP, otherwise he better be wearing an eatable hat come October.

None of those aggregate projections look out of place. I held down the LaRoche numbers but the only two who I think will have a hard time meeting these will be Loney and Kemp but they could also go higher. Once Ethier is playing everyday this should be the best hitting team we've had in the McCourt era.

2008-02-23 09:55:01
17.   imperabo
I guess if I had to pick one as optimistic I'd say LaRoche. It's hard to predict someone to hit over 800 OPS before he's done anything good in the majors. Pierre might be a little high, but just a percentage point here or there. Furcal may be a little optimistic.
2008-02-23 10:40:57
18.   Bob Timmermann
Some had some data entry problems for Yahoo at the Villanova-UConn game

8:13 Villanova - Personal foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Personal foul on Corey Fisher

That must have been one hard foul.

2008-02-23 10:40:59
19.   Bob Timmermann
Some had some data entry problems for Yahoo at the Villanova-UConn game

8:13 Villanova - Personal foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Offensive foul on Corey Fisher
8:13 Villanova - Personal foul on Corey Fisher

That must have been one hard foul.

2008-02-23 10:41:21
20.   Bob Timmermann
And my double post was not intentional!
2008-02-23 12:05:26
21.   Dodgers49
Torre: Jones needs to keep weight in check

>> Torre said he had only heard good things around the league about Jones, and that his only concern was Jones dropping a few pounds during the spring. The Curacao native is listed at 210 pounds but appears heavier.

"It's a little bit of a concern," admitted Torre, who said Jones could bat anywhere from third to sixth in the order. <<

http://tinyurl.com/yrexr2

2008-02-23 12:16:08
22.   Dodgers49
From Tony Jackson:

>> ... Yhency Brazoban's recovery from shoulder surgery has progressed to the point that he now will throw every other day. He is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season.

... The Dodgers signed five of their ``zero-to-three'' guys: Pitchers Jonathan Broxton and Eric Stults, catcher Lucas May, infielder Chin-lung Hu and outfielder Matt Kemp. Just to clarify, these are players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible for arbitration. <<

http://blogs.dailynews.com/dodgers/

2008-02-23 12:45:30
23.   trainwreck
Oregon should be deducted 5 points for those stupid jerseys.
2008-02-23 13:37:58
24.   old dodger fan
Slow day at DT's so I did my tax return. Got it all finished and ready to print and it could not find a printer. I went to "my computer" to look for the printer and it told me I had a "spooler error" whatever that is. I went to the Microsoft website and it told me that if I tried to fix it and did it wrong I could really mess up my computer. Then I remember the IT guy at my office always says to do a restart before giving up or doing something drastic. I did the restart and it worked perfectly. Whew!! And I only owe $200 besides.

I need some baseball.

2008-02-23 13:56:25
25.   Bob Timmermann
24
Owing $200 isn't all that bad. At least you weren't withholding too much.

I have a hard time getting across to my younger staff that income tax refunds aren't really a good thing. Unless you enjoy using the IRS Savings Plan. It pays 0% interest.

2008-02-23 14:07:30
26.   Bob Timmermann
UCLA trailing to Oregon isn't the same without a traiwreck-D4P battle of pessimism about their respective teams.
2008-02-23 14:09:58
27.   trainwreck
How am I pessimistic? I was the one saying we were going to win the championship before the season started.

Though Saturday morning games always seem to be a real challenge.

2008-02-23 14:12:16
28.   Bob Timmermann
27
You're usually pessimistic in the short term.

D4P is pessimistic in the long term.

2008-02-23 14:17:22
29.   trainwreck
Can't always expect Gonzaga magic.
2008-02-23 14:17:48
30.   Bob Timmermann
Oregon is not as good as that Gonzaga team however.
2008-02-23 14:19:17
31.   trainwreck
The fact that the Bruins are this close with how bad they have played is a good sign.
2008-02-23 14:20:42
32.   Jon Weisman
I'm watching the Independent Spirit Awards, if anyone wants to chat about that.
2008-02-23 14:20:54
33.   Bob Timmermann
UCLA is to three-pointers as the 2007 Dodgers were to home runs.
2008-02-23 14:21:33
34.   trainwreck
I wish I still got IFC.
2008-02-23 14:21:36
35.   Bob Timmermann
32
I'm betting on Juno taking home a lot of those awards.
2008-02-23 14:28:17
36.   trainwreck
Why does Ernie Kent always sit in a high chair?
2008-02-23 14:31:27
37.   Bob Timmermann
36
His mom doesn't think he's ready for a big kid's chair?
2008-02-23 14:38:53
38.   Bob Timmermann
I'm guessing that Jon is going to watch the Oscars Sunday instead of the Cal-Stanford game.
2008-02-23 14:43:23
39.   Dodgers49
Trouble in Paradise?

>> One of the interesting things about baseball is that the unexpected is always lurking just around the corner. And in one of those Kodak moments the Dodgers issued a very careful statement that they are looking for "alternatives" to the new spring training facility in Glendale, Arizona. <<

http://dodgers.scout.com/2/731134.html

2008-02-23 14:55:48
40.   gpellamjr
Slow days on DT remind me how incapable I am of entertaining myself, and that I am so boring as to be unable to start up an interesting conversation here.
2008-02-23 14:57:41
41.   Bob Timmermann
40
I'm bored, so I'll go look for a birthday present for you. I think I'll get you a copy of my old girlfriend's new book on Pier's Plowman.

I hear it's a page turner.

2008-02-23 14:59:04
42.   Bob Timmermann
Actually, it's titled "Langland's Early Modern Identities". It's in the 3,000,000 range on Amazon.com.
2008-02-23 15:00:31
43.   Jon Weisman
When the game, the Oscars and The Wire are all on at 6, the TV will probably have something like Yo Gabba Gabba on. I'm gonna have to go Double DVR.
2008-02-23 15:02:32
44.   Bob Timmermann
You can just "The Wire" on HBO On Demand.

(ducks)

You do need to give this week's "The Wire" your full attention. Besides you may find it to be more interesting if the episode features Oscar-winner(TM) Amy Ryan instead of just Oscar (TM)-nominated Amy Ryan.

2008-02-23 15:05:25
45.   Bill Crain
42
It's a vademecum!
2008-02-23 15:07:35
46.   Bob Timmermann
45
There's a new word for Scrabble. Except it's nine letters long.
2008-02-23 15:13:49
47.   Bluebleeder87
I really feel if Bills has a good off season work out regiment (that & if upper management skips a few starts here & there) Bills can really surprise us in '08, I really hope that's the case. I'm looking for Penny to run out of gas more so this year, I don't know, he doesn't look in the best of shape from what I've seen but we'll see guess.
2008-02-23 15:14:14
48.   Dodgers49
Arbitration payout puts Howard in uncharted salary territory

>> But in the end, this case didn't turn out to be about service time -- the factor that determines most arbitration awards. It was about the fact that Ryan Howard is a historic player. A really historic player. There's only player in history who compares to this man. And it isn't Pujols, Cabrera or anyone else of this generation.
It's a gentleman named George H. Ruth. You may know him as "Babe." <<

http://tinyurl.com/2obdsp

2008-02-23 15:14:33
49.   Bluebleeder87
But you know what, that seems to be the theme with him [Penny] every year right...
2008-02-23 15:15:28
50.   Bluebleeder87
48

I think I've heard of such a name.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-02-23 15:30:19
51.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2008-02-23 16:48:38
52.   Joe Pierre
Only Fortune Tellers should make Predictions.
2008-02-24 16:41:28
53.   CodyS
If this all comes true, we will score about 800 runs and allow only 650, and win maybe 96 games. High hopes.

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