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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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Billingsley's Second Half
2008-02-27 09:22
by Jon Weisman

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus continues to report that Chad Billingsley is more of an injury risk than most of us would suspect. Today, Carroll cited Billingsley's "control problems and questionable stamina."

Billingsley averaged 5 2/3 innings per start last season, at age 23. That number was affected by his transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation. In his first two starts of 2007 (in June), he totaled 7 2/3 innings.

From July 1 to his penultimate start of the season September 23, however, Billingsley averaged six innings a start. I can't imagine much more would be asked for a pitcher of his age, in an era in which you're trying to protect his arm. (His final start, in a meaningless game, was cut short in the second inning.)

During the aforementioned stretch, Billingsley walked 3.67 batters per nine innings, or perhaps more relevantly, 2.45 batters per six innings. Many Dodger fans know that Billingsley sometimes used a lot of pitches to get through a start; nonetheless, his season high was 116 in a five-inning outing August 13. Following that game, Billingsley averaged 15.7 pitches per inning through September 23, walking a batter every three innings. At that rate, Billingsley would get through a typical six innings on 94 pitches, walking two. That doesn't strike me as excessive.

Nothing physically has happened with Billingsley that I know of to justify any excessive concern with him, aside from the fact that, you know, he's a pitcher. I remain confident that, while he might have his rough patches, Billingsley will emerge as a Dodger ace this season. (And gosh, I sure hope I'm right.)

Update: Jinx. Billingsley has minor discomfort in his groin, according to Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise.

The discomfort is considered minor, as Billingsley will still throw in a simulated game. That said, he did say that the groin might have caused him to skip a start in an in-season situation.

2008-02-27 09:46:18
1.   natepurcell
Will Carroll is so bull-headed it makes me sick. He is going to keep throwing this out there every chance he gets until Billingsley hurts his arm and then will say "see, I told you so!"
2008-02-27 09:52:51
2.   kinbote
Via Diamond Leung's latest blog entry, Joe Torre says Nomar has the "inside track" on the 3b job.
2008-02-27 09:52:54
3.   silverwidow
Everyone wants to lock-up Martin (justifiably so) but what about Bills? Top young starters are worth their weight in gold.
2008-02-27 09:52:58
4.   Bob Timmermann
D.J. Houlton update:
2008-02-27 09:52:58
5.   cargill06
billingsley's mechanics seems so sound, i don't see that as any type of danger for injury.
2008-02-27 09:54:58
6.   fanerman
2 "Joe Torre declared Nomar Garciaparra the favorite to start at third base over Andy LaRoche. "Being the veteran guy, he has the inside track in being the starting third baseman," Torre said. Torre said he could tell LaRoche has been a bit anxious during the intrasquad games."

I thought yesterday LaRoche's anxiousness would him better suited to starting.

2008-02-27 09:56:36
7.   silverwidow
Just when Jon posts this article, Bills reports a minor groin injury.
2008-02-27 09:57:12
8.   cargill06
2 torre said laroche seemed a little anxious, that seemed obvious during yesterdays inter-squar just on the bases, he went from 2nd to 3rd on a fly-ball to 2nd, than tried to score on a ball that was blocked right in front of the plate.

i wouldn't put it past torre to use, "nomar has the inside track" it as a motivational tool to laroche and a sense to the vet that he is getting a fair shot to start.

2008-02-27 09:58:55
9.   regfairfield
3 He might not be arbitration eligible next year (he's close to a super two), so I'm not as concerned.
2008-02-27 10:01:52
10.   Xeifrank
I am not convinced that...
Bad Control = Bad Stamina

and then how to take that a step further to being an injury risk. I'd say previous health problems (if he had them) would be more of a sign of injury risk than bad control.

I would think that...
Bad Control = Lots of pitches thrown = Shorter stints Poor stamina.

vr, Xei

2008-02-27 10:04:18
11.   Xeifrank
10. there is suppose to be a not equals sign between the shorter stints and poor stamina, it got wiped out by the toaster. Should've used != or preview button.
vr, Xei
2008-02-27 10:08:10
12.   Jon Weisman
Well, this is shaping up to be a great day.
2008-02-27 10:09:40
13.   still bevens
Isnt the concern with Billinglsey that he only pitched something like 140 innings last season? Isnt the gradual increase in innings 40% per year for young starters? I think Chad will be in red flad territory if he ends up pitching 200+ innings this season, which is a concern.
2008-02-27 10:11:29
14.   MC Safety
7 Are you joking?
2008-02-27 10:15:33
15.   MC Safety
Diamond's entry today is pretty depressing.
2008-02-27 10:18:21
16.   Jon Weisman
15 - Does that include the part about Jeff Kent in a tight black shirt?
2008-02-27 10:23:25
17.   Kevin Lewis
Read the Harvard-Westlake article

It seems a little naive that the school wasn't locking things up in classrooms already. I can understand the close knit community and the excellent standards, but why wasn't there any security in place from the get go. Seems like you assume quite a bit if you think it could never happen in your own school.

2008-02-27 10:25:11
18.   Jon Weisman
17 - Well, you know, people want to believe in the honor code.

There was an attempt to steal exams when I was there, back in the early 80s, as I recall.

2008-02-27 10:29:31
19.   Andrew Shimmin
It takes more than a little cheating to get a public school in the news.

2008-02-27 10:30:49
20.   Bob Timmermann
When I visited the University of Virginia, I walked through the student union and saw a sign that read "People not subject to the honor code are able to visit this area. Please watch your possessions."

That made me feel welcome!

2008-02-27 10:32:36
21.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2008-02-27 10:35:41
22.   MC Safety
16 Yeah, I could've done without that description. That whole post just ruined my Wednesday. I'm going to see Dave Attell at the Improv tonight though so that's looking up.

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