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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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Is the Offense Offensive?
2008-04-20 07:44
by Jon Weisman

Every time the Dodgers score a run or less in a game, questions start flying about what's wrong with the offense, no matter how recently the hitters pounded the ball. After all, the Dodgers have been held down for a whopping two games in a row now, so the fur necessarily is flying.

Here's the run distribution for the Dodger offense so far this season, with 10 percent of the games played:

11 11

The Dodgers have played 17 games this season. In nine, they've scored below four runs, and in seven they've scored more than four runs. Overall, they're averaging 4.2 runs per game. Call me crazy, but to me this describes a functional National League offense.

Most of the time - though this weekend in Atlanta is an exception - they've hit the pitchers you'd expect them to hit and struggled against those you'd expect them to. They've had players hit above their heads and players hit below their toes. They've been inconsistent, but inconsistency doesn't imply incompetence.

Here's the runs-allowed distribution this season for the Dodgers:


Nine games below four runs, eight games at four or above, 3.6 runs allowed per game. Again, in general, the better the opposing offense, the worse the Dodgers have done.

The reason the Dodgers are three games below .500 and a rather stunning six back of Arizona is pretty simple - they haven't matched up the good offensive games with the good defensive games in any sort of ideal fashion. In games decided by two runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-5.

Now, whether the Dodgers will pitch and hit consistently enough to turn this around, I have no idea. This could be an aberration, or a frustrating pattern that will continue for the next 145 games.

But what gets tiresome is when you hear people say after a poor offensive game, "The Dodgers have no offense," or talk about how the team needs to juggle the lineup to turn things around. Guess what: Baseball teams don't score six runs and allow two every day of the week. They struggle. Some struggle more than others, but they all struggle.

Even Arizona ... once in a while.

10 10 10


If Arizona keeps playing like this, there's gonna be no catching them. If.

It might be a good time to remember 1982, if only for the heck of it. The Braves started the season 13-0; the Dodgers 5-8. And by the end of the season, the Dodgers were one Joe Morgan homer away from playing past game 162.

Not saying it'll happen - I'd sure rather be in Arizona's shoes right now. But try to hang in there.

Dodgers at Braves, 10:35 a.m.

Comments (411)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-04-20 08:35:35
1.   bhsportsguy
Good one Jon, I was thinking of typing a similar post, frankly, I don't think that there is much Torre or anyone can do but write out the lineup with the best players in there and hope their talent will produce.
2008-04-20 08:36:04
2.   bhsportsguy
1 By post, I mean comment of course.
2008-04-20 08:41:48
3.   Suffering Bruin
Nice post.

There's only 145 games left? (sob)

2008-04-20 08:54:31
4.   regfairfield
J.P. Riccardi: Bad GM, or Worst GM?
2008-04-20 08:55:35
5.   JoeyP
Either the Dodgers will turn it around---which would be good----> or they wont---> and Ned will be fired.
2008-04-20 08:56:29
6.   JoeyP
Riccardi is in a division with the Red Sox/Yankees payroll...tough spot.
2008-04-20 08:57:15
7.   regfairfield
6 Benching Frank Thomas for Joe Inglett then releasing him doesn't help matters.
2008-04-20 09:03:06
8.   micktissue
Nice analysis there Jon. It seems really early to contemplate our early losing ways as a continuing trend and hopefully the result so far is all just data noise. Let a winning streak start today with My Kuroda!
2008-04-20 09:08:55
9.   Neal Pollack
Jon's analysis is sane and thoughtful, as always. The Dodgers haven't been HORRIBLE this season. They've been average, for the most part, thus far. The real problem is that Arizona has been awesome. In another division, our problems wouldn't seem so severe. It's like having an older brother who can do no wrong.
2008-04-20 09:13:24
10.   DXMachina
I think part of it is that all last year there was the feeling that if the kids would just get the chance to play regularly, then the Dodgers' offense would take off in the same way that Arizona's has. That's probably an unreasonable expectation (and I doubt Arizona can keep it up for an entire season either.) On the other hand, as you say, they haven't exactly been facing Jake Peavy out there this weekend. I'm not asking for 11 a game, but they ought to be able to do better than 2 runs against these guys.
2008-04-20 09:18:25
11.   underdog
On target post, Jon. Hope people will take it to heart. The other thing is, if by some miracle Arizona doesn't stumble at all and just runs away with division - there's always the wild card. A little early to even be thinking along those terms, of course.

Meanwhile, we've got Hu and DeWitt in today's lineup, Martin's back, Pierre is in. So some good, a little bad, but nothing at all surprising to me:

Furcal 6
Pierre 7
Loney 3
Jones 8
Ethier 9
Martin 2
DeWitt 5
Hu 4
Kuroda 1

(From Tony Jax - any idea what the #s mean?)

2008-04-20 09:19:12
12.   Bob Timmermann
I'm way too polite to say what the numbers mean.
2008-04-20 09:23:07
13.   D4P
Think (for example) "6-4-3"...
2008-04-20 09:23:38
14.   underdog
I've got a soccer game later this morning so have to Tivo the game. And then find somewhere else to go to watch the Lakers game, since I can't Tivo both. Drat. So I shall not be here for most of the day.

Good luck to the boys in blue today. They really need this one.

2008-04-20 09:25:07
15.   underdog
Duh, I got it. Thanks. Did I mention I just woke up and haven't had coffee yet?

I thought it was Tony Jackson's own ingenious, mysterious rating system. Then realized he can't even fix his own blog comments for a week, or dress himself properly. I hope I can do the latter right now since my brain isn't working either.

2008-04-20 09:25:54
16.   underdog
Duh. Duh. Duh.

Just had to say that again. To get the hat trick.


2008-04-20 09:28:12
17.   Bob Timmermann
Actually before the game, the managers assigns a relative importance to each player so a guy from Baseball Prospectus can then tabulate who made the greatest contribution.
2008-04-20 09:32:27
18.   Marty
Hu: Who's number 1?
Man: You are number 4.
2008-04-20 09:32:32
19.   KG16
from the last post for Icaros - if you got your BA in '99 and MFA in '01, it's entirely possible that we were classmates at some point along the way (though, I will admit to taking very few poetry classes).
2008-04-20 09:33:50
20.   Suffering Bruin
11 15 16] I've got that beat.

A little over twenty years ago in the midst of a sportscasting career that wasn't really going anywhere anytime soon, I was in a small town playing "Trivial Pursuit" with some friends. I was well known for my knowledge of sports trivia. Compared to some, I wasn't anything special but to this group of friends, I owned the orange category.

Along came a question worth a pie: name the cities that are home to the basketball, football and baseball Halls of Fame.

I blanked on Cooperstown.

I mean, they were all waiting--pretty healthy crowd of people at a party, all impressed with my knowledge of literature, history (again, for perspective, it was a Trivial Pursuit game, so take it for what it's worth) and I'm in a "spotlight" moment. I've just rattled off Springfield, MA and Canton, OH without hesitation and I drew a blank on Cooperstown.

Let me tell you something, underdog. We remember these moments with a smile. Humiliating at first but since everyone--and I mean, EVERYONE, pardon the shouting--has blanks, we understand. Heck, we're laughing with you.

I was a sportscaster. I forgot Cooperstown.

Anybody wanna top that? Underdog and I could use the company.

2008-04-20 09:38:05
21.   KG16
I hate these made for tv play off game intros where they have some pseudo celebrity doing spoken word to game clips. I don't know which ones are worse, the NBA or baseball, but they'd be much better off not doing it.

11 - why drop Ethier to 5th? I'd think a 3-4-5 of Ethier-Loney-Jones would be a bit better. Otherwise, considering rest issues, the line up isn't all that bad. Part of me would really like to see The Solution crush a couple that land near Mobile, Alabama.

2008-04-20 09:38:22
22.   MollyKnight
I was going to guess that the Dodgers have outscored their opponents on the whole this year, yet have more Ls than Ws. That seems like bad luck, but who knows?

It really seems like we either blow teams out, or we lose. I think Saito's only had two save chances this year, out of 17 games. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that is the fewest of any MLB team.

Which numbers geek wants to prove me wrong? :)

2008-04-20 09:39:50
23.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers and Reds are tied for last in the majors with 2 save opportunities.
2008-04-20 09:40:40
24.   MollyKnight
Who do we think is going to pick up Frank Thomas?
2008-04-20 09:41:37
25.   Bob Timmermann
Seattle perhaps?
2008-04-20 09:41:37
26.   underdog
20 What's Cooperstown?


No, I'm with ya. Thanks.

18 So Russell Martin will be played by Patrick McGoohan?

2008-04-20 09:42:41
27.   underdog
Okay, I have an hour to wake up for my game. Hopefully I can remember the rules. Kick the ball toward's the opponent's goal and into it, right?
2008-04-20 09:42:42
28.   Bob Timmermann
No Rafael Furcal is played by Patrick McGoohan.

Russell Martin will be played by a different person each week.
Except Leo McKern will get to do it twice.

2008-04-20 09:43:24
29.   Bob Timmermann
Don't use your hands while the ball is in play unless they give you a funny looking shirt and some gloves and make you stand by the goal.
2008-04-20 09:43:41
30.   Andrew Shimmin
If Arizona doesn't stumble, they're on pace to win 124 games this year. I think Detroit is more likely to score 1000 runs, than Arizona is to win 124 games.
2008-04-20 09:44:34
31.   Sagehen
21 I don't think Torre wants to put his two best left-handed hitters back to back (Ethier and Loney).

Besides, Jones hit a homerun yesterday, so he's obviously ready to bat cleanup.

Come on Blake! Have a big day at the plate and put Nomar to shame.

2008-04-20 09:48:18
32.   KingKopitar
I once couldn't remember the name of the goaltender for the LA Kings when they went to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Not that bad until you consider I've been following the team since I was 6 and I write for a Kings blog under the name "Rudy Kelly." My brother has never let me live it down.

2008-04-20 09:49:36
33.   LogikReader
This is a three part post

1) Jon, thank you for validating my feelings which I expressed yesterday. I know the Dodgers could come around. Molly, that's a great point about save opportunities, and you know? This is a problem I'd like to have.

2) When you watch the Dbacks, you look at them and think "This is too good to be true." First they defy the laws of probability by winning their division despite their pythagorean record, and now they're just beating up on teams left and right.

3) Benching Frank Thomas (at least after last year) and then releasing him the next day has to be the dumbest move I've ever seen in a long time.

2008-04-20 09:50:53
34.   LogikReader
33 pt (2)

...ESPECIALLY with that bullpen of theirs!

2008-04-20 09:50:55
35.   Bob Timmermann
Who was Hrudey's backup that year?
2008-04-20 09:53:00
36.   bhsportsguy
30 At least Andrew didn't use "we" when speaking about Arizona winning 124 games.
2008-04-20 09:56:25
37.   MollyKnight
23- I knew you'd come through.

Weird stat that kind of sums things up, right?

2008-04-20 10:03:06
38.   CodyS
The Dodgers offense can by no means be called functional, unless the function is to ground weakly to second. 10th out of 16 teams is not going to get us anywhere. The idea is that you are supposed to be better than the other teams.

But I do think they'll do better as the season goes along. I predicted in the prediction thread that they'd score 4.8 runs/game, and I still think they will.

2008-04-20 10:07:50
39.   MollyKnight
Any updates on the Minotour's ETA?
2008-04-20 10:12:26
40.   Jon Weisman
Brewers add a 14th pitcher.

2008-04-20 10:17:19
41.   Lexinthedena
Does Kemp have to have multi-hit games in order to stay in the lineup?

Pierre sure was starting to look good as the pinch-hitting specialist:)

2008-04-20 10:33:06
42.   Bob Timmermann
It looks like Hideo Nomo's career is over.

Domo arigatou gozaimasu!

2008-04-20 10:37:23
43.   Eric Stephen
I'm trying to wait until May 1 before passing judgment (although last weekend I was almost ready for blood). Today was expected; Kemp had started 5 straight games, so no reason to worry -- yet.
2008-04-20 10:37:46
44.   KG16
So, which crew will be less annoying, Stiener/Psycho or the TBS guys?
2008-04-20 10:40:24
45.   Bob Timmermann
The former.

You never want to less Chip Caray unless you are under great duress.

2008-04-20 10:40:31
46.   Eric Stephen
Wow, I thought 13 pitchers was overkill. It's hard to see how having only 3 bench players (including 1 catcher) won't hurt them at some point.
2008-04-20 10:40:37
47.   Bob Timmermann
"listen" instead of "less"
2008-04-20 10:41:12
48.   Still love Campy
25 Good call. I'm in the NW so the Mariners are my AL team. The blogosphere is already humming with the debate of improving over our odd choice for DH (Jose Vidro, the singles hitting wonder) and saying we don't need a washed up, cancer in the clubhouse guy. My guess is if the M's can get him cheap, they'll pick him up.
2008-04-20 10:41:16
49.   Eric Stephen
The lure of HD has unfortunately compelled me to listen to Caray & Ron Darling.
2008-04-20 10:41:36
50.   Johnny Nucleo
40 It boggles the mind. They will have two available pinch-hitters and a backup catcher. Talk about constraining your strategic options.

Earl Weaver would have something to say about this, and no doubt there would be many Rule 1 violations.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-04-20 10:42:08
51.   D4P
Horrendous at-bat, Juan.
2008-04-20 10:42:50
52.   Johnny Nucleo
42 Will we see Nomo performing the Japanese retirement ceremony, I wonder?
2008-04-20 10:43:26
53.   Bob Timmermann
The Mariners used to have Jose Guillen! And Frank Thomas is a clubhouse cancer.

Frank Thomas is like having skin cancer and Jose Guillen is like having colon cancer.

2008-04-20 10:44:54
54.   Bob Timmermann
Corky Miller's real first name is Abraham for those not reading the media guide at home.
2008-04-20 10:45:41
55.   D4P
Andruw has missed some meaty pitches.
2008-04-20 10:46:16
56.   Andrew Shimmin
PSA's telling people to get colonoscopies would be more effective if they showed Jose Guillen in your colon. Polyps aren't nice, exactly, but Jose Guillen would get some appointments set.
2008-04-20 10:46:30
57.   Still love Campy
53 Guillen (mostly) behaved himself while he was there, but man, was I happy to see him leave.
2008-04-20 10:46:47
58.   El Lay Dave
Looked a little outside to me; maybe just the camera angle.
2008-04-20 10:46:50
59.   Bob Timmermann
Position player reserves available for the Brewers today:
Gabe Kapler
Craig Counsell
Mike Rivera


2008-04-20 10:47:05
60.   Lexinthedena
That called strike three was a ball to Chipper yesterday.
2008-04-20 10:47:56
61.   Bob Timmermann
Maybe my Jose Guillen t-shirt that I wore to the doctor is why I got scheduled for a colonscopy!

(Or maybe it was the family history.)

2008-04-20 10:50:45
62.   Lexinthedena
61 There are Jose Guillen t-shirts?
2008-04-20 10:50:51
63.   KG16
59 - if those are there three best reserves, I can see why they are going with a 25 man pitching staff
2008-04-20 10:51:46
64.   Andrew Shimmin
63- Say what you will about Counsell, but one word against Gabe Kapler, and you're going on my Icaros list!
2008-04-20 10:52:39
65.   Eric Stephen
Bobby Cox always seems to sit close to the microphone, and no matter whom is batting he always says "C'mon, [player], let's go," or something close to that effect. If Cox managed a little league team, he'd be the coach that always wanted chatter in the dugout, "hey batter batter" and the like.
2008-04-20 10:55:05
66.   Linkmeister
61 If ever there was a procedure that was worse in warmup and anticipation than in actual performance, colonoscopy is it. Drinking that saline goop and the resulting residence in the WC is unpleasant; the scoping itself (in my case) was nuthin'.
2008-04-20 10:55:18
67.   El Lay Dave
Larry Jones didn't even get a nice swing against Kuroda in that AB.
2008-04-20 10:56:15
68.   El Lay Dave
"The Pennsylvania Playoffs"? Awful.
2008-04-20 10:56:43
69.   Sagehen
I suspect the Brewers are keeping the guys they can't send down, more than anything.

What a young bench the Brewers must have if half of it had options left. Can you imagine the Dodgers even being able to go with a 3 man bench without losing valuable players? (like Young)

2008-04-20 10:57:19
70.   Andrew Shimmin
If microscopic nanobots with cameras haven't replaced the current procedure by the time I hit colonoscopy age, I'm going to renounce science.
2008-04-20 10:57:25
71.   D4P
Rudulf Jones didn't look much better.
2008-04-20 10:58:15
72.   Ken Noe
51 Braves' announcers stated outright that JP cost the Dodgers a run by not getting the bunt down. Went on to say that the team would like to trade him but his contract is too big.
2008-04-20 10:58:47
73.   MollyKnight
2008-04-20 10:59:15
74.   Sagehen
Come on Blake!!!
2008-04-20 11:00:29
75.   El Lay Dave
72 Lyons also criticized JP for not advancing the runner.
2008-04-20 11:00:48
76.   Bob Timmermann
I'm guessing that the 14-man pitching staff for the Brewers will last one day after they determine the health of Ben Sheets.
2008-04-20 11:01:35
77.   KG16
Nomar would have been out on The Solution's infield hit
2008-04-20 11:02:29
78.   regfairfield
Criticizing Pierre's sacrifice bunting is like saying he's too slow.
2008-04-20 11:02:37
79.   El Lay Dave
They're going to have to start swinging at that pitch.
2008-04-20 11:02:39
80.   KG16
I really do not like called third strikes when the Dodgers are hitting
2008-04-20 11:02:40
81.   Eric Stephen
Xiefrank would not approve of Chip Caray's pronunciation of Kuo's last name.
2008-04-20 11:02:53
82.   Bob Timmermann
Wow. Breaking news:
Alex Rodriguez will spend his off day tomorrow with his wife!

Film at 11!

2008-04-20 11:03:07
83.   D4P
They're going to have to start swinging at that pitch

Fastballs down the middle are tricky.

2008-04-20 11:03:54
84.   regfairfield
77 No he wouldn't have, no one was anywhere near the ball.
2008-04-20 11:03:59
85.   Sagehen
One wonders if the "work the count" philosophy has gone too far.
2008-04-20 11:04:23
86.   KG16
82 - the man has no passion for baseball. A real ballplayer would have his 8 month pregnant wife fly to New York and stay in their penthouse apartment while he went out with his model girlfriend
2008-04-20 11:04:58
87.   Bob Timmermann
I haven't turned over to TBS, but I can guarantee you that no one is pronouncing Kuroda's last name correctly.

All the vowel sounds in it are very short. Try to say them as short as you can. And then shorten them again.

Like automobiles and the club sandwich, the Japanese have made their vowel sounds smaller and more efficient.

2008-04-20 11:05:22
88.   KG16
84 - I know, I just felt like saying it. Though I could see Nomar dogging it to first, thinking the pitcher was going to get to it.
2008-04-20 11:06:05
89.   Doug N
I'm putting this in the mail tomorrow:

An open letter to Dodger management:

To whom may I send an itemized list of Dodger related expenses which I have incurred for refund? I have recently become aware of Mr. McCourt's prediliction for giving money away, and I was hoping to capitalize on that as Mr. Torre has.

If I am unclear, allow me to point out that Mr. Torre's salary is significantly larger than Mr. Little's, though Mr. Torre appears to have no intention of performing his duties any differently than his predecessor. To wit, Mr. Torre insists on playing Juan Pierre; he sees no value in utilizing a set line-up based upon performance; and he applies no consistent metric to the management of the pitching staff.

I admit to being only an amateur observer of what is clearly a complex business, so rather than question decisions made by Messrs McCourt, Colletti, and Torre, I would like to offer my services. I am relatively young, capable of walking upright, and willing to be at work before anyone else. Perhaps I could play outfield for the Dodgers?


Anyone care to give me notes?

2008-04-20 11:09:04
90.   KG16
Wow, the Nuggets bus caught fire on the way to Staples Center. That's got to be a sign or something
2008-04-20 11:09:23
91.   El Lay Dave
The Brave's 3B coach is nowhere near to being in the box. What does Bowa think?
2008-04-20 11:10:30
92.   Longhorn Bill
That ball was crushed.
2008-04-20 11:10:32
93.   Eric Stephen
My advice is to save the 41 cents.
2008-04-20 11:10:33
94.   Ken Noe
Dear Joe: That would have been a single with Ethier in left. Your pal, Ken
2008-04-20 11:10:44
95.   Gen3Blue
I've got two sets of announcers but neither is the Dodgers. The one for Sports South doesn't seem annoying---yet.
And as usual recently, everywhere the Dodgers go we find excellent unknown young pitchers
2008-04-20 11:11:31
96.   Eric Stephen
Ron Darling explained that Pierre has "lost his ability to throw". Did he ever have that ability?
2008-04-20 11:12:40
97.   Eric Stephen
At least Jurrjens has been relatively highly rated in Baseball America in the last few years. Not so for Jeff Bennett.
2008-04-20 11:12:51
98.   Bob Timmermann
It's not as if Pierre had a shoulder injury. He just never had a good arm. It happens. I'm certain Pierre would blow me away in a baseball tossing contest.
2008-04-20 11:13:06
99.   regfairfield
Singles off the wall happen all the time.

Did anyone else think that was an unusually good throw from Pierre?

2008-04-20 11:13:17
100.   D4P
Ron Darling is surprisingly knowledgeable.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-04-20 11:13:52
101.   Bob Timmermann
He went to Yale. That makes him smarter by divine right.
2008-04-20 11:14:35
102.   bhsportsguy
94 A ball off the wall would have been a double?

I realize that Pierre has no arm but I think the guy would have made it to second despite that.

2008-04-20 11:15:33
103.   Linkmeister
Why do you suppose my TBS channel is showing me Headline News sports (congrats, Danica Patrick!) instead of the Braves-Dodgers game?
2008-04-20 11:15:40
104.   Eric Stephen
I was more pointing out Darling's comment than pontificating on Pierre's arm.
2008-04-20 11:16:35
105.   Eric Stephen
In Hawaii, are you lumped in as a Dodger "home" market?
2008-04-20 11:16:38
106.   D4P
Life goes on, Corky.
2008-04-20 11:17:26
107.   Doug N
93 you could've pointed out that i spelled "predilection" incorrectly...
2008-04-20 11:17:36
108.   eekrock
Unveiling the Dodger Thoughts shirt on the unwitting Cerritos Library public today, oh yes.

Go Dodgers!

2008-04-20 11:17:42
109.   KG16
102 - actually, the relay throw got to second at the same time as the runner. That said, like reg pointed out, it was actually a pretty good throw by Pierre.
2008-04-20 11:19:10
110.   Linkmeister
105 Beats me. How would I go about finding out? Any idea?
2008-04-20 11:19:12
111.   Eric Stephen
If I ever saw Kyra Sedgwick on the street, I'd confess to her that I think "The Closer" is awful.
2008-04-20 11:20:19
112.   Ken Noe
102 It was actually fairly close even with JP's arm.
2008-04-20 11:21:50
113.   Bob Timmermann
There's a link here to a map:
2008-04-20 11:22:24
114.   Bob Timmermann
However that map doesn't include Alaska or Hawai'i.
2008-04-20 11:22:24
115.   regfairfield
You could also argue that it would have take Ethier longer to get the ball, or that Francouer would have ran harder if Ethier was out there.
2008-04-20 11:23:58
116.   El Lay Dave
113 LOL!
2008-04-20 11:24:02
117.   KG16
113 - apparently that map was drawn in 1958 because it does not seem to recognize the 49th and 50th states
2008-04-20 11:25:00
118.   3upn3down
NL Records Better/(Worse) than Pythagorean record:

NYM 10-6 (1)
Fla 10-7 +3
Atl 8-9 (3)
Phi 8-10 (1)
Was 5-13 (1)

StL 12-6 0
Mil 11-6 +1
Chi 11-6 +1
Pit 7-10 +1
Cin 7-11 (1)
Hou 6-12 (1)

Ari 13-4 (1)
Col 9-8 +1
San 8-10 +2
LAD 7-10 (3)
SF 7-11 +3

2008-04-20 11:25:37
119.   Eric Stephen
I did a search, and found the following comment which would lead me to believe Hawaii is considered a Dodger and Angel market:

*OK. I live in Hawaii. The nearest MLB teams are 2,500 miles and 3 time zones away. Here are the blackouts (other than the national FOX & ESPN Saturday/Sunday games):
On MLB.TV: None. (Good)
On DirecTV Extra Innings: Only the Dodgers and Angels and then only when they are being broadcast on FSN. (Makes sense)
On Oceanic Time-Warner Cable Extra Innings: permanent blackout of the Mariners, Giants, A's, Dodgers, and Angels. (No rational explanation)*

2008-04-20 11:26:55
120.   Bob Timmermann
So the 50th state has been ceded to the Padres?
2008-04-20 11:27:20
121.   bhsportsguy
110 TBS is not blacked out in LA on DirectTV.
2008-04-20 11:29:08
122.   Andrew Shimmin
113- Another good reason not to move to Iowa.
2008-04-20 11:29:35
123.   KG16
122 - "It's Iowa" isn't enough?
2008-04-20 11:29:40
124.   Bob Timmermann
TBS is blacked out on Time-Warner in South Pasadena and presumably the rest of the L.A. market.

And it's literally blacked out. They aren't showing anything on TBS HD. It's just a black screen. On the regular version of TBS there is CNN Headline News.

2008-04-20 11:29:45
125.   scareduck
0 - Call me crazy, but to me this describes a functional National League offense.

Functional yes, but very dispiriting. Against preseason picks for contending teams, the Dodgers are simply doing very poorly.

vs. ARI - 11 runs scored, 23 runs allowed
vs. SDG - 27 runs scored, 16 runs allowed
vs. ATL - 2 runs scored, 10 allowed

In the case of the Padres, even when the Dodgers massively outscore the opposition, the result is still a 3-3 dead heat (mainly because of a couple blowouts). The Dodgers simply aren't scoring well against the good teams that will form their competition for a postseason berth, and it is this, I think, that forms the basis for so much frustration. Even viewed from a very optimistic lens, this team is not playing, in the early going, like one that will get past game 162.

2008-04-20 11:30:04
126.   Linkmeister
113 Well, you could argue that by omission we're blacked out, or you could argue the opposite and we should be in. All I know is the cable identifier at the bottom of the TBS screen has MLB on from 7:00-10:30am, the paper's TV skeds say the game is on that channel, and yet it ain't there. I thought for a moment there was a rain delay, but then y'all were talking about ongoing plays, so that wasn't it.


2008-04-20 11:30:58
127.   Ken Noe
115 Agreed, but it's still likely that Francouer thought, "hey, Pierre, two bases!"
2008-04-20 11:32:46
128.   Linkmeister
119 Ah. That's annoying, particularly since when the Braves and TBS had their deal going (for what, 25 years?) we got all those games with no trouble on Oceanic Cable.

124 Yeah, I've got CNN's Headline News on my regular TBS.

Snarl, grumble, grouse.

2008-04-20 11:33:40
129.   Andrew Shimmin
I drove through Des Moines, once. At the top of the hour, the DJ on whatever radio station I could pick up read the school lunch menu for the week. Then, when he finished that, he read the lunch menu for the senior centers.
2008-04-20 11:33:51
130.   bhsportsguy
Alston/Lasorda - 2 managers in 38 years
Russell, Hoffman, Johnson, Tracy, Little and Torre - 6 managers in 12 (though Hoffman was interim)
2008-04-20 11:35:55
131.   bhsportsguy
Again, not being a pitcher, so I don't know what they are thinking, you wonder if the starters are pressing because of the offense.
2008-04-20 11:36:51
132.   Bob Timmermann
Alston/Lasorda - 2 managers in 43 years
2008-04-20 11:37:03
133.   D4P
Pierre didn't either bother trying to throw out the runner at home.
2008-04-20 11:37:05
134.   regfairfield
Now you can argue Ethier would have got Johnson there.
2008-04-20 11:38:11
135.   KG16
130 - would the Dodgers be better off today if Russell was still the manager? In all honesty, I'm curious as to what everyone's opinion.

124 - in north Orange County I get a black screen on the digital version and a picture of a swing and miss with the words: TBS home of the 2008 NLDS and 2008 ALDS; or some such thing.

2008-04-20 11:38:36
136.   Andrew Shimmin
134- So argued.
2008-04-20 11:38:46
137.   MSarg29
Interesting observation from Ron Darling about how Texiera hit that same pitch to the opposite field yesterday.
2008-04-20 11:38:52
138.   bhsportsguy
Over 60 pitches in 2+ innings for Kuroda.
2008-04-20 11:40:10
139.   Eric Stephen
I think Pierre is a button off on his uniform. The left side is sitting higher than the right side. It's pretty funny.
2008-04-20 11:40:25
140.   El Lay Dave
133 I doubt he had a shot, but I thought it slightly odd that he didn't come up throwing immediately to the cutoff man.
2008-04-20 11:41:01
141.   3upn3down
Straw pole:

Would anyone be strongly opposed to the dodgers going to the all blue with white lettering (spring training) jerseys on Sunday's? I think the Braves' Sunday jerseys are a nice change of pace.

2008-04-20 11:41:04
142.   Bob Timmermann
I can't picture any scenario under which Russell would have survived all the changes in the front office. Russell was wound very tight.

And he also had a falling out with Lasorda after taking over.

And he would still be sending up a washed up Eddie Murray to pinch hit in a crucial situation. Murray was a great player. But he was not a great player in September of 1997.

2008-04-20 11:41:52
143.   D4P
Now you can argue Ethier would have got Johnson there

But you could argue that Ethier would have taken longer to get to the ball in the first place...

2008-04-20 11:42:04
144.   Bob Timmermann
I would be more than strongly opposed. I would be take up arms and lead a guerrilla attack on Dodger Stadium to prevent it.
2008-04-20 11:42:46
145.   Bob Timmermann
Extremism in the opposition to ugly uniforms is no vice.
2008-04-20 11:43:16
146.   bhsportsguy
142 I wonder if Scioscia would have survived all the front office changes.
2008-04-20 11:43:29
147.   3upn3down
Danica Patrick does what Anna Kourikova could never do.
2008-04-20 11:44:08
148.   Still love Campy
I can't get used to seeing "Los Angeles" on the shirts instead of just "Dodgers." I'll never forgive that Anaheim team for driving LA to do it.
2008-04-20 11:44:30
149.   Bob Timmermann
The McCourts will fire anyone at anytime if they so choose.
2008-04-20 11:45:42
150.   El Lay Dave
The Dodgers should wear white at home; the Lakers should not.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-04-20 11:45:49
151.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers had "Los Angeles" on their road jerseys from 1959 through 1969.
2008-04-20 11:46:10
152.   El Lay Dave
Golden God!
2008-04-20 11:46:14
153.   D4P
That looked gone off the bat, but barely made it out.
2008-04-20 11:46:19
154.   Ken Noe
That's nice to see!
2008-04-20 11:46:29
155.   MollyKnight
We needed that so badly.


2008-04-20 11:46:36
156.   Andrew Shimmin
Russ Martin is like a nail made of robots.
2008-04-20 11:46:36
157.   bhsportsguy
Barely made it but it counts, nice going Russell.
2008-04-20 11:46:40
158.   eusmus
Russell Martin has soothed my rage for Juan Pierre.
2008-04-20 11:46:44
159.   Eric Stephen
They had "Los Angeles" on the road uniforms for something like a decade when they first moved to LA. It's not like it's unprecedented.
2008-04-20 11:48:04
160.   bhsportsguy
151 I knew you would come up with that fact.
2008-04-20 11:48:58
161.   MollyKnight
156-OK. That was good for a belly laugh.
2008-04-20 11:49:01
162.   KG16
142 - in Russell's defense, I think anyone who took the job would have had a falling out with Lasorda because Lasorda wasn't ready to retire. I remember having the distinct impression that Lasorda was going to be back in the dugout within a year.

But yes, the front office changes would have likely done him in. Though, if he got to keep Piazza, things could have been different, no?

2008-04-20 11:49:06
163.   Bob Timmermann
Sandy Koufax looks dashing in this "Los Angeles" jersey:
2008-04-20 11:49:26
164.   Ken Noe
141 Non-white home unis are the devil's playthings. I wouldn't mind 1937 throwbacks once in a blue moon.
2008-04-20 11:49:26
165.   Eric Stephen
I also hate the home Laker whites.

I want to say the Dodgers at some point during the Fox ownership wore blue tops with white pants at home for one game. Then the public outcry was so negative that the idea was scrapped.

2008-04-20 11:50:55
166.   Still love Campy
151 159 But that's when I listened to them on the radio and rarely got to see them on TV. Still bugs me.
2008-04-20 11:51:16
167.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers wore blue uniforms for a whole week. It was during a Think Blue week back in the Fox Era.

I have tried to suppress the memory, but it came out once during a sensory deprivation experiment I was undergoing last night.

I'm trying to make some extra bucks.

2008-04-20 11:51:58
168.   Jon Weisman
141 - Yes, I would be.
2008-04-20 11:52:32
169.   Still love Campy
163 Love it. Thanks.
2008-04-20 11:53:31
170.   Greg Brock
Home whites, road grays. No solids. Wear your city name on your visiting jerseys.

There are rules, people.

2008-04-20 11:53:36
171.   Eric Stephen
Anyone else notice Pierre's unfortunate uniform buttoning today?
2008-04-20 11:54:00
172.   Bob Timmermann
If I showed up at a Dodgers game in L.A. and the team was wearing blue uniforms, I would ask for my ticket price to be refunded.
2008-04-20 11:54:57
173.   KG16
172 - I concur
2008-04-20 11:55:08
174.   Bob Timmermann
Secretly, Greg Brock has told me that he loved it when the UCLA basketball team wore black jerseys at home once.
2008-04-20 11:55:30
175.   Reddog
Do the home jerseys still say "Dodgers" on the front?
2008-04-20 11:55:38
176.   bhsportsguy
166 I think that was during the time when Dodgers showed only the road games from San Francisco on TV.
2008-04-20 11:56:17
177.   Greg Brock
174 If this were another era, I would challenge you to a duel, sir. Good day.

I said good day sir!

2008-04-20 11:56:28
178.   MollyKnight
I'm a little surprised about this uniform discussion. I wouldn't care if the Dodgers wore kilts as long as they won.
2008-04-20 11:56:29
179.   Marty
I'm one of the few who like the Laker white uniforms I guess. I've never been a big fan of the yellow home jerseys.
2008-04-20 11:56:31
180.   El Lay Dave
175 Yes.
2008-04-20 11:57:23
181.   bhsportsguy
I do like those throwback road jerseys for the Lakers that have "Los Angeles" scripted on them.
2008-04-20 11:57:41
182.   D4P
Dunn trips on the bat. Hilarious.
2008-04-20 11:57:49
183.   El Lay Dave
178 I assume kilt-adorned baseball players wear sliding shorts underneath.
2008-04-20 11:58:22
184.   bhsportsguy
178 You just want to see Russell in a skirt.
2008-04-20 11:58:41
185.   KG16
178 - if the Dodgers wore kilts, they'd have to change the camera angle... for Martin's modesty, of course.

179 - the new white jerseys are an abomination, in my mind. The throw backs are cool though.

2008-04-20 11:58:42
186.   Gen3Blue
178 I was thinking exactly that.
2008-04-20 11:59:02
187.   Eric Stephen
I love those uniforms.
2008-04-20 11:59:10
188.   LAT
Does Tommy not own a nail clipper?
2008-04-20 12:00:15
189.   Eric Stephen
Every time I think of kilts, I think of Groundskeeper Willie exclaiming to a group of shocked kids, "'Tis only what God gave me!"
2008-04-20 12:00:22
190.   Ken Noe
Maryville College used to wear plaid trim. Their basketball warm-ups made them look like the Bay City Rollers.
2008-04-20 12:01:09
191.   bhsportsguy
188 Lasorda?
2008-04-20 12:02:08
192.   El Lay Dave
190 Did they play any games on Saturday night?
2008-04-20 12:02:28
193.   eusmus
It looks like Hu has been getting some batting tips from Tony Abreu.
2008-04-20 12:02:59
194.   Ken Noe
192 Saturday night!
2008-04-20 12:03:13
195.   LAT
Yeah on the Torre bobblehead commercial his finger nails were as long as a Vegas cocktail waitress.
2008-04-20 12:04:57
196.   KG16
Raffy with his second steal, now if only Slappy McPopup can hit it out of the infield
2008-04-20 12:05:08
197.   bhsportsguy
189 I recall the take off on "Basic Instinct" when Willie is sitting in the chair and Wiggum threatens to shoot him if he keeps uncrossing his legs.
2008-04-20 12:05:28
198.   KG16
I'd send Raffy again
2008-04-20 12:05:46
199.   Gen3Blue
Here is what you don't want--Pierre up 3rd in an inning--as Bill James recently pointed out.
2008-04-20 12:06:24
200.   KG16
199 - it's even worse, he was up fourth, with two outs
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-04-20 12:06:28
201.   Ken Noe
Every time poor JP comes up, the Braves announcers negatively critique his contract.
2008-04-20 12:06:41
202.   El Lay Dave
I'm with Lyons; clearly an on-target throw gets Furcal out. I know the scorer isn't supposed to assume the DP, but that, for all intents and purposes, is a throwing error on the SS.

196 Two outs; it has to be a hit.

2008-04-20 12:08:30
203.   3upn3down
167 Bob, was this something like the sensory deprivation you were experimenting with?

2008-04-20 12:09:17
204.   Gen3Blue
The Sports South annoncers pointed out "but you won't find a harder working player"
2008-04-20 12:09:38
205.   LAT
199. I think you misquoted James. What he really said was "Here is what you don't want--Pierre up."
2008-04-20 12:09:40
206.   bhsportsguy
If you want a break from sports today and you have HBO, you can watch their version of the American Revolution through John Adam's eyes.
2008-04-20 12:09:57
207.   El Lay Dave
2008-04-20 12:12:58
208.   El Lay Dave
Was Larry Jones limping into 2B?
2008-04-20 12:13:21
209.   bhsportsguy
I know we talked about the other day but the trend has been either everyone hits or no one hits with runners on base. Even if they hit their average with RISP, the Dodgers score a few more runs.
2008-04-20 12:15:50
210.   MollyKnight
208- Yes, he was. And then he slid awkwardly and took about a minute to get up and dust himself off. He seems to be OK, though.
2008-04-20 12:16:19
211.   MollyKnight
I would very much enjoy a strikeout right here.
2008-04-20 12:19:28
212.   El Lay Dave
210 Thanks, that's what I thought I saw too.
2008-04-20 12:20:58
213.   3upn3down
I've got the following beers in my fridge, and am getting thirsty. First person to recommend one of the following flavors wins the opportunity to control what I consume for the next 5 minutes.

Guinness Draught
Old Peculiar Ale
John Courage Ale
St. Arnold's Ale
Widmer Hefeweizen

2008-04-20 12:21:08
214.   MSarg29
208 - Good catch there.
2008-04-20 12:21:20
215.   El Lay Dave
Ah, and now a new 3B for the Braves.
2008-04-20 12:21:46
216.   MSarg29
widmer Hefeweizen
2008-04-20 12:22:11
217.   silverwidow
Minotaur thru 1 IP:

0 ER, 0 hits, 1 BB

2008-04-20 12:24:09
218.   D4P
If you've got Andruw's golden sombrero, through it up in the air.
2008-04-20 12:24:18
219.   Gen3Blue
Those balls right down the middle seem to be bothering Andruw.
2008-04-20 12:24:30
220.   MollyKnight
I'm on the cusp of a Rule #1 violation.
2008-04-20 12:26:39
221.   3upn3down
Thank you 216 . Off to the fridge.
2008-04-20 12:28:15
222.   D4P
Patience loses much of its virtue when it dictates taking pitches right down the middle with 2 strikes.
2008-04-20 12:28:53
223.   MSarg29
This is frustrating.

Andruw watching a hanging breaking ball for strike 2 is just painful.

2008-04-20 12:31:40
224.   larry slimfast
I'm no Pierre fan at all but it's getting boring to see people complain about him when his OPS is the best on the bench and currently better than two starters. He's gonna play sometimes. He's a serviceable 4th outfielder. His playing time indicates that. To his credit, his popups are down; G/F is his best in 5 years. I know, small sample but he seems to have finally accepted his role. It's our turn now.
2008-04-20 12:32:19
225.   MollyKnight
I don't know why Kuroda is still out there. He looks completely done.
2008-04-20 12:32:24
226.   El Lay Dave
I'd like a GIDP here.
2008-04-20 12:33:09
227.   El Lay Dave
... or here.
2008-04-20 12:34:46
228.   El Lay Dave
2008-04-20 12:36:16
229.   Linkmeister
Gameday can be useless. "Juertjens hits a sacrifice bunt."

Yeah, and? Why was he not out at first?

2008-04-20 12:37:09
230.   D4P
Wow. That might have been the lowest called strike I've ever seen.
2008-04-20 12:37:33
231.   PalmdaleSteve1

Andruw is making JP look like a power hitter.

Today was JP's first strike out.

2008-04-20 12:37:39
232.   El Lay Dave
229 Martin threw to 2nd, but it was in the dirt, everyone safe. I'd rule that a fielder's choice, E-2, if I were the scorer.
2008-04-20 12:37:56
233.   silverwidow
Jacksonville defense sucks! 2 errors lead to a run.
2008-04-20 12:38:02
234.   LAT
Dodgers got lucky there. Bases should have been loaded
2008-04-20 12:38:27
235.   bhsportsguy
Don't want to be critical of Russell but that was a bad play by him.
2008-04-20 12:38:49
236.   El Lay Dave
233 DeWitt will be improving it soon.
2008-04-20 12:38:53
237.   Jon Weisman
What have you done for me lately?

"Torre is so impressed with the rookie (Blake DeWitt) that he wouldn't rule out sending down Andy LaRoche when he is ready to come off the disabled list."

2008-04-20 12:39:37
238.   Linkmeister
232 Thanks.
2008-04-20 12:41:23
239.   El Lay Dave
237 I don't think there is any reason for Torre to rule anything out at this point.
2008-04-20 12:41:30
240.   D4P
Would Pierre have caught that...?
2008-04-20 12:41:30
241.   Eric Stephen
Wowie wow wow, Ethier!!!
2008-04-20 12:41:36
242.   Longhorn Bill
Web Gem
2008-04-20 12:41:37
243.   Jon Weisman
Play of the year by Ethier! Let's turn this frigate around!
2008-04-20 12:41:49
244.   El Lay Dave
Ethier keeps it close!
2008-04-20 12:42:01
245.   LAT
Great Great Catch
2008-04-20 12:42:06
246.   PalmdaleSteve1
Great catch my Andre...

Web Gem ?

2008-04-20 12:42:39
247.   Jon Weisman
240 - Really? We have to go there? Can't we just enjoy a good play?
2008-04-20 12:42:48
248.   El Lay Dave
240 Irrelevant - he'd never be in RF to begin with.
2008-04-20 12:42:55
249.   MollyKnight
2008-04-20 12:43:02
250.   regfairfield
That was nice.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2008-04-20 12:43:07
251.   3upn3down
Andre locks up the quality start for Kuroda.
2008-04-20 12:43:35
252.   MSarg29
what a catch!
2008-04-20 12:43:37
253.   PalmdaleSteve1


Last year JP only dropped a few, he's actually a good fielder with a poor arm.

2008-04-20 12:43:47
254.   Longhorn Bill
The top defensive plays are called web gems on baseball tonight.
2008-04-20 12:44:09
255.   regfairfield
Wow, he came really close to dropping that.

And somehow Kuroda gets a quality start from that.

2008-04-20 12:44:58
256.   El Lay Dave
255 Because he bore down with men on base.
2008-04-20 12:45:00
257.   Ken Noe
I join the chorus--man that was sweet.

237 DeWitt may be Torre's new Proctor. For the time being, that's great, but I'd rather see Nomar replace Sweeney or DFA than LaRoche go back to Vegas again.

2008-04-20 12:45:07
258.   Gen3Blue
Bless Ethier.
2008-04-20 12:45:10
259.   D4P
240 wasn't intended to be taken seriously.
2008-04-20 12:45:52
260.   PalmdaleSteve1

Will ESPN show it as a Web Gem? That was the question/comment.

2008-04-20 12:46:54
261.   regfairfield
237 Steiner absolutely loves the guy too. I don't really get it. He certainly exceeded expectations, but it's not like he's set the world on fire.
2008-04-20 12:47:21
262.   MMSMikey
did hu actually just swing at that bad of a pitch.
2008-04-20 12:47:30
263.   MollyKnight
Nomar picks up a bat.
2008-04-20 12:48:21
264.   bhsportsguy
259 A better question would have been, could Kemp had made that play since he would have to make a back-handed catch.

The snarky response would be no, Pierre would not have maade that catch since he was in left field.

2008-04-20 12:49:04
265.   MSarg29
Darling and Caray with a nice illustration of the young players on the Dodgers and the legacy of Dan Evans.
2008-04-20 12:49:11
266.   El Lay Dave
264 You could argue that Kemp would have got there faster. ;)
2008-04-20 12:49:30
267.   Jon Weisman
259 - That wasn't clear at all, and you know, I don't really care.
2008-04-20 12:49:31
268.   Linkmeister
I still can't find the "highlights" button on Gameday to see big plays. Little help?
2008-04-20 12:49:46
269.   D4P
240 was harkening back to the earlier discussion.
2008-04-20 12:50:33
270.   bhsportsguy
262 Hu rarely gets to play so I think its fair to say that he's going to be rusty most times he comes to the plate.
2008-04-20 12:50:43
271.   D4P
Start reading at 94 .
2008-04-20 12:51:20
272.   LAT
Nice AB by Nomar
2008-04-20 12:51:46
273.   LAT
Furcal overdue for an HR
2008-04-20 12:51:47
274.   El Lay Dave
Nomar wouldn't take that strike on the outside edge, fouls them off, and earns a walk. Good PA.
2008-04-20 12:51:56
275.   regfairfield
Good at bat by Nomar there.
2008-04-20 12:52:31
276.   MollyKnight
Great at-bat, Nomar.
2008-04-20 12:52:53
277.   bhsportsguy
268 If Ethier is playing regular depth, its a routine fly ball to the gap but he was playing in a bit, the ball was hit well to right center gap (perhaps not the gap but towards it) and he had to make a leaping diving catch with a lot of ball showing to save 3 runs.
2008-04-20 12:54:12
278.   MollyKnight
I know walks are good, but I'd rather see Furcal hack away here then take a base on balls, him being our hottest hitter and all.
2008-04-20 12:54:18
279.   bhsportsguy
If Nomar was like Lou Gehrig, he'd retire if he got congratulated for taking a walk against a guy just a few games out of the minors.
2008-04-20 12:54:28
280.   Eric Stephen
Nuggets on an 11-0 run, 36-30 Denver in the 2nd quarter.

Scratch that, Sasha hits a 3. 36-33

2008-04-20 12:55:08
281.   Jon Weisman
271 - I get it. I've read every comment. If I still have to make a case that there has been Pierre overkill whenever another outfielder makes a play, I guess I'm lost.
2008-04-20 12:55:23
282.   bhsportsguy
278 Girls like homers not walks.
2008-04-20 12:55:53
283.   Jon Weisman
But forget it. I'm sorry if I came down too hard.
2008-04-20 12:56:33
284.   bhsportsguy
280 Its the NBA, no need to tune it until the 4th.
2008-04-20 12:58:32
285.   Eric Stephen
That hurts, man.
2008-04-20 12:59:37
286.   StolenMonkey86
282 - well yeah. Chicks dig the long ball.

2008-04-20 13:00:14
287.   LAT
Not exactly Greg Maddux like there
2008-04-20 13:00:34
288.   PalmdaleSteve1
Joe T. going to drive Beimel to the barber shop again?
2008-04-20 13:01:10
289.   LAT
So this is what a rally looks like. . .
2008-04-20 13:01:23
290.   silverwidow
Kershaw thru 3 IP:

0 ER, 2 hits, 2 BB, 2 K

2008-04-20 13:03:00
291.   Eric Stephen
One of the all-time great commercials.
2008-04-20 13:03:16
292.   regfairfield
I didn't know you were allowed to do that.
2008-04-20 13:03:22
293.   LAT
If he pulled that off it would have been the play of the year
2008-04-20 13:04:23
294.   KG16
that would have definitely been a web gem for Russ, if he'd have caught it
2008-04-20 13:04:31
295.   Linkmeister
292 What? What?
2008-04-20 13:04:53
296.   StolenMonkey86
ha, the commentator said Teixeira was too slow to run on Juan Pierre
2008-04-20 13:05:26
297.   El Lay Dave
I was going to criticize Lyons for the hardly topical "Dwight Stones" reference, but I can't name a current high jumper either.
2008-04-20 13:05:42
298.   StolenMonkey86
Martin went Spiderman on the net to try to grab a ball that landed in the dugout club.
2008-04-20 13:05:59
299.   CodyS
It should be clear that runs/game only tells you so much and that variation is also extremely important in determining # of wins.
This can easily be seen in the extreme.
Imagine, to make things simpler, that you give up 4 runs every single game. That reduces the problem to one dimension, although the points made could be made in two dimensions equally well.
Imagine one team scores 810 runs in one game, then 0 every other game. They'll go 1-161
Another team scores 5 runs every game. They'll go 162-0.
You can work out the math in more detail, but you'll still see that the more variation you have, the worse you'll do (assuming you have a net run'd be the opposite if you had a net run disadvantage).
2008-04-20 13:06:34
300.   MollyKnight
I was wondering why the Lakers game wasn't on TV here, and now I have an answer: 4 hour Papal Mass at Yankee Stadium
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2008-04-20 13:06:35
301.   Eric Stephen
Odalis Perez pitched six earned run-less innings today to lower his ERA to 3.38.
2008-04-20 13:08:25
302.   trainwreck
That would drive me crazy.
2008-04-20 13:08:33
303.   El Lay Dave
...the more variation you have, the worse you'll do

Not if your runs scored variation aligns favorably with your runs allowed variation.

I thought the point of displaying the runs the way Jon did was to point out the variation.

2008-04-20 13:10:38
304.   Eric Stephen
Eric Gagne is trying to please chicks in the greater Cincinnati area today.
2008-04-20 13:11:33
305.   bhsportsguy
300 Are they showing it on every station?

Come on guys, this is kind of game that you have to win because Atlanta is blowing every chance to take control.

2008-04-20 13:12:04
306.   regfairfield
300 I'm working on this right now and I can tell you that it's absolutely not true. If you were as consistent as humanly possible versus your normal run distribution, you'd win one more game or so.
2008-04-20 13:12:05
307.   LAT
Pierre is overdue, right? Yes? Please?
2008-04-20 13:13:24
308.   skybluestoday
Re: 301

Someone has kidnapped every aspect of Odalis Perez (save for the propensity to give up horrendous numbers of hits and runs) and replaced him with a near-exact replica.

2008-04-20 13:13:32
309.   KG16
I was going to make a point about median runs scored and allowed, but the Dodgers are better off in that way too
2008-04-20 13:14:11
310.   bhsportsguy
Molly, I read your interview with Derek Fisher, is as nice and classy a guy as he is portrayed?
2008-04-20 13:14:45
311.   silverwidow
Kershaw just K'd former prospect Sergio Pedroza with 95 MPH heat.
2008-04-20 13:15:31
312.   LAT
Wow Giants just own Cards. Leading 8-0.
2008-04-20 13:16:02
313.   MMSMikey
would kemp have stolen that base? i think not.
2008-04-20 13:16:31
314.   MollyKnight
Hidden Ball Trick! Fail!
2008-04-20 13:16:44
315.   KG16
wow did they really just run the hidden ball play on Pierre?
2008-04-20 13:17:14
316.   silverwidow
Kershaw thru 4 IP:

0 ER, 2 hits, 2 BB, 3 K (2.00 ERA)

2008-04-20 13:17:15
317.   MollyKnight
310-Even more so. I'm actually supposed to interview him again this week. We'll see.
2008-04-20 13:17:42
318.   MMSMikey
man loney looks bad
2008-04-20 13:17:58
319.   MSarg29
Loney is really mixed up. Wouldn't be surprised to see him sit soon.
2008-04-20 13:18:12
320.   KG16
313 based on the throw, Kemp would have taken third also

Kind of like Pierre just did

2008-04-20 13:18:29
321.   MollyKnight
Two steals, a hidden ball trick, and a fake bunt by Andruw Jones. What a half-inning!
2008-04-20 13:18:38
322.   trainwreck
Now he will never get out of the lineup.
2008-04-20 13:19:13
323.   MMSMikey
earning your pay check their, fatty.
2008-04-20 13:20:03
324.   Linkmeister
Andruw, a fly ball would have been useful there.
2008-04-20 13:20:06
325.   bhsportsguy
322 Can't fault him for doing what he does best.
2008-04-20 13:20:08
326.   LAT
A. Jones is just killing this team. Ned must get sick every time he comes to bat. Frank must get furious.
2008-04-20 13:20:24
327.   KG16
part of me wants to see Pierre steal home
2008-04-20 13:20:31
328.   El Lay Dave
Pitching around Ethier.
2008-04-20 13:21:24
329.   MollyKnight
Walking Ethier to get to Russ. Make 'em pay, Golden God!!
2008-04-20 13:21:26
330.   MSarg29
awful at bat by Andruw.
2008-04-20 13:21:59
331.   regfairfield
Would this be a bad time to point out Andruw has a better OPS than Russ?
2008-04-20 13:22:17
332.   bhsportsguy
317 He seems to have a great influence on Kobe, if anything he can take a shot and Kobe won't give him the glare.
2008-04-20 13:22:22
333.   Eric Stephen
All of me wants to see that.
2008-04-20 13:23:36
334.   Eric Stephen
Dodgers putting up a picket fence series in Atlanta.
2008-04-20 13:23:52
335.   bhsportsguy
331 I think frustration tends to get pointed at the most expensive guys who are stinking up the joint.
2008-04-20 13:25:14
336.   trainwreck
I think it is because Martin has already produced for the Dodgers, so people give him benefit of the doubt.
2008-04-20 13:25:23
337.   Linkmeister
331 According to Gameday's numbers that's not accurate. Jones .595, Martin .628.
2008-04-20 13:25:25
338.   StolenMonkey86
306 - That's hilarious, because you meant to reference 299 .
2008-04-20 13:26:12
339.   Eric Stephen
Chip Caray said the Braves and the Dodgers, "former NL West rivals," are now "meeting in a cross country matchup for the very first time".


2008-04-20 13:26:20
340.   regfairfield
337 Okay, before this game.
2008-04-20 13:27:52
341.   KG16
339 - that hurt my brain
2008-04-20 13:29:55
342.   silverwidow
Kershaw thru 5 IP:

0 ER, 2 hits, 2 BB, 4 K (1.89 ERA)

2008-04-20 13:32:02
343.   Eric Stephen
I hate to pile on, but moving from 2nd to 3rd on a fly to LF is bad stuff.
2008-04-20 13:32:08
344.   MSarg29
Caray with another comment about Pierre's arm
2008-04-20 13:32:22
345.   KG16
runner tagged from second on a fly ball to left, don't see that every day
2008-04-20 13:33:06
346.   MSarg29
2008-04-20 13:34:08
347.   LAT
Looked like Andre mistakenly ran in on that ball
2008-04-20 13:34:11
348.   El Lay Dave
Ethier can't chase that one down. No one could, from that positioning.
2008-04-20 13:34:16
349.   CodyS
For reasonable values of variation, the effect is small, but still there. A few games per year. That's with 0 correlation. Too lazy to consider correlation right now.
2008-04-20 13:35:05
350.   El Lay Dave
Brave's win expectancy just went up a lot.
Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2008-04-20 13:35:28
351.   LAT
Game Set Match. Dr, Proctor kills the patient.
2008-04-20 13:36:05
352.   MSarg29
batting practice. wow
2008-04-20 13:36:23
353.   StolenMonkey86
did he just say Proctor might need a hug?
2008-04-20 13:37:21
354.   Eric Stephen
Rod Barajas started at DH for the Big Hurt-less Blue Jays today.
2008-04-20 13:38:07
355.   MSarg29
Proctor's ex girlfriend is having fun w/ his struggles right now on her blog.
2008-04-20 13:38:07
356.   Ken Noe
On the bright side, I couldn't attend the game in person today as planned. At least I can sulk in silence without tomahawk chopping around me.
2008-04-20 13:38:26
357.   Linkmeister
Proctor is suddenly reminding me of Don Stanhouse when he pitched for the Dodgers (Not the Os!).
2008-04-20 13:38:27
358.   bhsportsguy
Bad pitching or not, the story of this weekend is the total lack of offense, starting with Loney striking out in the first inning of Game 1 with the bases loaded.
2008-04-20 13:38:49
359.   skybluestoday
Come. Observe. Watch your Dodgers fall apart in a spectacular fashion. Free hot dogs for all.
2008-04-20 13:38:50
360.   LAT
Mop Up Park warming in the pen.
2008-04-20 13:39:01
361.   Eric Stephen
That's gotta be a technical on Anthony Carter.
2008-04-20 13:39:13
362.   Disabled List
This team looks absolutely hopeless right now. Meanwhile, I just watched the Red Sox come from five runs down in the 7th to beat the Rangers, with Manny sitting on the bench.
2008-04-20 13:39:17
363.   regfairfield
349 I'll have the post up in a couple days so I can show my work, but the effect doesn't exist. Sure you have a decent chance to win every game, but you lose the games where you score enough runs to automatically win. It balances out.
2008-04-20 13:40:16
364.   StolenMonkey86
349 - Yes, but there is also variation in runs allowed. It is just as likely that unusually low runs allowed will benefit a team, and on average, it works.

These are correlated too - park effects, weather, etc play into things.

2008-04-20 13:40:34
365.   skybluestoday
A disastrous series when we could ill-afford it. Sigh.
2008-04-20 13:40:42
366.   Linkmeister
I just noticed that on Gameday the pitcher's ERA is updated in real time. I just saw Proctor's jump from 5 to 9.39.
2008-04-20 13:40:47
367.   Gen3Blue
Looking at bright side our bullpen will be well rested.

If you lose the close ones, and win the blow-outs, you never have to use your good relievers.

2008-04-20 13:41:05
368.   StolenMonkey86
Joe Torre's best fried isn't helping him.
2008-04-20 13:41:16
369.   silverwidow
Kershaw done for the day:

5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 2 BB, 5 K (1.83 ERA)

2008-04-20 13:41:32
370.   PalmdaleSteve1
Next 7 days are going to be the test of Joe's power as a manager early on in the season.

Cincinnati, Arizona, then Colorado.

The boys in Blue are about to get hit pretty hard over the next week, how well Joe manages the team facing some tough teams and the club house might be an indicator of the rest of the season.

2008-04-20 13:41:41
371.   StolenMonkey86
best friend. Wow. Torre is not Colonel Sanders.
2008-04-20 13:42:30
372.   Linkmeister
And with that K it falls to 9.00.

What a wasted weekend for the Dodgers.

2008-04-20 13:45:09
373.   LAT
Jones really needs to sit. He is killing this team. Even one game. He needs a break. He is just pressing and pressing harder. Give Kemp a start in CF.
2008-04-20 13:47:25
374.   fanerman
Derek Fisher just threw the ball at Carmelo's head at point blank range (on accident).
2008-04-20 13:47:44
375.   bhsportsguy
373 But is Andruw the only reason why the team isn't winning these games? I am not saying he shouldn't take a day off but really outside of Furcal, no one is having a consistent year at the plate.
2008-04-20 13:48:30
376.   Jacob Burch
373 I'm not sure if, as of late, Jones is killing this team as much as any of DT's favorites.

Plus, a Jones benching would likely mean a Pierre start in center. That is a depressing thought.

2008-04-20 13:49:04
377.   PalmdaleSteve1

That's where Joe's years as a winning coach are going to come in.

Team playing badly, power not there, what does Joe do in games that are most likely going to be lost?

Play the regulars, try some experiments with the line up and roles, or just go out there and plug away?

Interesting 7 days ahead.

2008-04-20 13:49:20
378.   Jacob Burch
That should be more than, not as much as. I should start waking up earlier.
2008-04-20 13:51:27
379.   Eric Stephen
I hope Jeff Van Gundy doesn't take a coaching job this offseason. I really like him as an announcer.
2008-04-20 13:52:14
380.   Ken Noe
375 Agreed. The last three days have been a team effort.
2008-04-20 13:52:24
381.   Bob Timmermann
Jeff Van Gundy was a very annoying coach, but he's a very pleasant announcer.

But his eyes creep me out.

2008-04-20 13:52:29
382.   LAT
375. Agreed but others have sat. In addition, other are providing other services. Russ catches a good game. Pitchers need him. Jp offers SB and speed. Right now the best that can be said is that Jones doesn't drop fly balls. I just think he should be subject to the same treatment as everyone else and given a day or two off.
2008-04-20 13:55:39
383.   MJW101
The question everyone is silently(?) worrying about is not if/when will a Dodger offense show up on a consistent basis, but, when will Ned panic and make one of his patented trades?
2008-04-20 13:55:55
384.   bhsportsguy
382 Day's off (excluding Pierre/Kemp) (really more days they did not start)
0 - Furcal, Loney
1 - Jones, Ethier
2 - Martin
3 - Dewitt, Kent
2008-04-20 13:57:34
385.   bhsportsguy
383 Which trades would those be? Most of his debated moves are free agent signings, he's not made a trade involving a significant position player or prospects for position player since he has been here.
2008-04-20 13:59:23
386.   bhsportsguy
384 Also, Jones has pretty much played everyday since he came up in 1996. He gets about 1-2 days off a month.
2008-04-20 14:00:12
387.   trainwreck
Mark Hendrickson trade.
2008-04-20 14:02:30
388.   bhsportsguy
387 Yeah, but they were dealing for a 5th starter, I know its giving credit for not doing anything but he hasn't made a deal involving significant prospects in his time here, I don't think they will now.
2008-04-20 14:03:11
389.   bhsportsguy
The Pau Gasol trade might be the biggest giveaway in NBA history.
2008-04-20 14:03:51
390.   trainwreck
Maybe I am in minority, but I still thought Jackson and Navarro could be considered significant prospects.
2008-04-20 14:06:32
391.   trainwreck
I guess Guzman could have been considered significant too, but that trade did not do much for either team.
2008-04-20 14:08:20
392.   StolenMonkey86
391 - I disagree, I think Julio Lugo hurt us in 2006.
2008-04-20 14:09:16
393.   fanerman
The Lakers offense is really something.
2008-04-20 14:11:57
394.   StolenMonkey86
388 We lost Dioner Navarro in the Hendrickson deal.
2008-04-20 14:12:15
395.   oshea2002
I am significantly less excited about driving 4 hours to Cincinnati tomorrow. But I'll represent anyway.

I'd like to thank the Memphis GM again.

2008-04-20 14:12:52
396.   Jacob Burch
392 - My memory is hazy, but the Lugo trade afforded the compensatory pick that led to a sandwich pick in the draft because of a bizarre high-ranking for lugo. I -think- that was used on Mattingly, but again, two years is like, a long time man.
2008-04-20 14:13:41
397.   Ken Noe
Milton Bradley for Ethier, although I think it was his best deal.
2008-04-20 14:16:25
398.   PalmdaleSteve1

Ned will probably offer Andruw a long term deal, because that uncertainty of his future is clearly effecting his hitting. Shades of Mo Vaughn.

2008-04-20 14:18:30
399.   trainwreck
Maddux for Izturis was another good one for Ned. The Marlon Anderson deal too.
2008-04-20 14:19:00
400.   StolenMonkey86
396 - true, so I'll give it some time.
Show/Hide Comments 401-450
2008-04-20 14:19:27
401.   Ken Noe
If--big if--there really were divisions in the front office last year over keeping the kids vs. acquiring vets, as reported, I wonder what looks were exchanged along with the Texiera home run. Without a turnaround by the break, the pro-trade 'em forces might at least have more sway this year.
2008-04-20 14:20:12
402.   StolenMonkey86
398 - That's harsh. You're saying Ned is as stupid as Steve Phillips?
2008-04-20 14:22:29
403.   StolenMonkey86
The jury is out on Betemit for Proctor, but I have always opposed it. Although on the plus side, Blake Dewitt came into today's game with a .274 EqA.
2008-04-20 14:27:17
404.   Bob Timmermann
Driving to Cincinnati for any reason would not excite me.
2008-04-20 14:31:47
405.   silverwidow
396 Lugo got us Chris Withrow and James Adkins in the 2007 draft.
2008-04-20 14:45:55
406.   Jacob Burch
405 Off by a year. Thank ya kindly.
2008-04-20 14:50:11
407.   nofatmike
Does anybody get the feeling the Dodgers might be the inverse of the D-Backs last year? Out-scoring the opponents by winning most of the blowouts, but losing most of the close-ones, and thus, have a losing record?
2008-04-20 15:03:20
408.   dzzrtRatt
407 This just feels like an offensive slump. They had a few of these last season. So many called strikes. They're just not seeing the ball. Unless this continues through May, I will not believe that a lineup that regularly features Furcal, Kemp, Kent, Loney, Ethier and Martin, plus Jones and either Nomar or La Roche won't spend most of the season punishing pitchers or at least scoring a lot more than 1 run per game over the course of a lost weekend.

This isn't on Colletti or Torre. It's just a darn slump (avoiding Rule #1) that the hitters have to use mojo and burning sticks to banish.

Jon's diagram in his original post should be something you can look up every day on Maybe as a bar chart. It's extremely helpful, and a good basis for comparison.

2008-04-20 15:09:09
409.   Jon Weisman
2008-04-20 15:17:06
410.   MJW101
Most of the Ned's errors have been on FA signings but.....

Poor trades:
1/4/06 Sanchez for Seo
1/14/06 Jackson for Baez
6/27/06 Navarro for Hendrickson
7/31/07 Betemit for Proctor

Good trades:
11/5/06 Ethier for Bradley
7/31/06 Maddux for Izturis (however, not resigning him takes away any good points)

I am always appalled when the best that someone can say about the Ned is that he has not traded away the good young prospects. Maybe he is longing to do so, but is just on a short leash.

2008-04-20 15:18:09
411.   Gen3Blue
Fortunately I seem to be taking the Dodgers current problems with a fairly calm acceptance. I did OK in 2007 also, but I remember doing poorly in 2006 and particularly in 2005. It could be that DT is helping my experience as I realize the path has been aided by increasing contact through DT over these years.
"Things" are certainly not falling the D's way this April, and I understand in this series the Dodgers were 2 for 42 hitting with men on base. While it has been very hard to prove there is "clutchness" in hitting, I don't think there is any question that "chokeing" exists and can actually spread rapidly thoughout a team to become a team slump. It is fair to say a team truly becomes demoralized.
Teams like the Snakes and the Rockies had the advantage that their budget gave them no choice but to play their young prospects. They did and went through a period of a year or more in which these players stunk and had to figure things out: now they are basically over this. I hate to harp on this, but I have predicted struggles this year for Loney and Kemp, and even Martin. They will go through it one time or another, and it won't help how gradually they are eased in. This has to happen, and the vets must go when their contracts are up.
I wouldn't be surprised to see many of these young players getting hot in the second half, and pre-viewing a wonderful age as pitching begins to join the major league club.
All this intuative stuff doesn't include the plight of Andruw. I am as baffled as anyone as to what course he is on and had thought Atlanta just felt they couldn't afford him. Now I can't help thinking something more sinister is involved, and perhaps the Atlanta people in the know figured he was already headed south.

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