Plaschke this morning:

Gasol, a novice in these deeper waters, proved he also can sink.

Handed its first real test of June-worthiness, that great basketball brain flunked.

Faced with its first playoff adversity, that gentle smile became a whine.

Jarred for the first time with playoff desperation, those beautiful passes were junked.
----------

I swear it's like mad libs.

It's been reported that Penny, enamored of Maddux, incorporated some of the Maddux style of pitching to contact, not trying to blow batters away. To whatever degree this is so, it could account for some of Penny's declining K rate.

Penny does have one of if not the best W-L records in the league over the last couple years, so something is working--except for very recent outings. IIRC, his usual second-half decline wasn't as bad last year.

Question: a recent story said Penny "let" Maddux call one of his 2006 starts by looking into the dugout and getting pitch calls by Maddux's looking at different parts of the park. The results were good.

Exactly how would this have worked? IIRC, the catcher calls the game...maybe Martin was the one looking in at Maddux. Or maybe Penny's not above blowing a bit of smoke?

Apparently 3 games is enough to fork over millions of dollars. From Tony Jackson's blog:

"This simply isn't the same team without Furcal -- a fact Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti might want to keep in mind heading into the winter, when the shortstop will be a free agent."

Since when is 5 innings 6 runs, 5 innings 5 runs, and 5 1/3 innings 6 runs a slump? Are we absolutely sure this is really a slump for Lowe? And how do we know that Kuroda is in a slump? What evidence do we have that he is merely in a slump?

Don't get me wrong, I understand what you are saying, but I'm not completely sure this is all just a slump and things will simply just get better.

I think more correctly, we are hoping these are just slumps. No?

1 LOL, hard. "Mad libs" is classic.

Plaschke got national sportswriter of the year from the AP, IIRC. Sad.

4
In the case of Lowe, his ERA+ the last 3 years is 118, 124, 114. Unless he's hurt, he's probably going to be somewhere around there again.

Also, looking at his Fielding Independent Pitching (from Hardball Times, the expected ERA given his peripherals):

2005: 4.10
2006: 3.72
2007: 3.97
2008: 3.71

He'll be fine (even though his LD% is a little higher this year) once those baseballs start finding gloves.

NL Strikeout Leaders
Peavy 52
Volquez 52
Hamels 48
Harang 47
Santana 47
Lincecum 45
Billingsley 44

Santana, Lincecum, and Billingsley all pitch today. Let's see how far Chad can climb the list.

I'm predicting a Pierre-Jones-Ethier outfield tonight.

6 Well, he will be 35 in a couple of weeks, and players do decline.

I guess what I should have asked is, if it is just a slump now, when would it stop being a slump? For instance, if he gives up 5 in 5 innings on Wednesday against Milwaukee, is it still a slump? How many poor performances in a row before it stops being a slump?

I just find it far too convenient to blame poor performance as being merely a slump. Again, players do decline.

9 Three games definitely isn't a slump. Every year Lowe has had a bad month for us and managed to bounce back.

Heck Penny generally manages to be bad for the entire second half, then comes back fine next year. If Lowe is still getting bombed at the end of June I might worry. Heck, even if he is, what are you going to do about it? You can't replace everyone in the rotation with Kershaw.

9
great point.
slump is an odd idea. am i in a slump by working 12 hours and not, technically, making more money? (kinda but it's a life-long thing) is kemp in a slump by being a super young dude who has gone 0 for 8? (nope) is lowe in a slump by stinking it up for a few starts at age 35? ... i'm with you; the answer is "maybe." the guy has always been more sneaky good than overwhelming. now the sneak might be gone. if it is, we're not sunk, just troubled. i'd argue we bring up old/young mcdonald before kershaw, if only because the stakes are lower and the goal - to replace the no. 3 pitcher - isn't so high.... now, is a. jones in a "slump" or is he cooked? that's a bigger question. and while i'm well aware of the calendar, jones' problems look bigger than "slump" to me. he looks scary horrific.... atlanta isn't a stupid organization, and they rarely let folk go who should be kept. (i know, guys like j.d. drew and even odalis, for a bit, sort of put the lie to that, but generally speaking...)... my point is, slump wise, the bigger question is in CF, not the mound.

Thanks for the perspective check, as always, Jon!

I'll take myself off the ledge now. ;-)

Anyway, what reg said.

Lowe has definitely been eminently hittable his last few outings, but he does go through stretches like that. I bet he corrects it; at least he will when his agent reminds him of his "walk year." Maybe Penny will be reversing his usual trend; bad first half great second half. But I can't imagine him being worse than the last outing.

Hopefully Bills can continue his upward trend tonight, he's been our best starter the past 2 weeks.

8 If Furcal is back, I predict a Ethier-Jones-Kemp outfield.

9 - Certainly, players decline, and there's no reason to think that Lowe is exempt. But is there reason to think that Lowe won't continue to have an ERA of 8 as he has had in his past few starts? I think so.

One thing I didn't put in the main post is that Lowe sure could have used some better infield defense behind him last night.

I can't predict the future any more than anyone else. All I'm saying is not enough has happened up to now to freak out over the starting pitching.

10 Heck, even if he is, what are you going to do about it?

What am I going to do about it? I? I can't do anything! Obviously!

But, I won't keep believing it's just a slump.

Simply put, he is pitching poorly. The fact he does this every year is more a statement of his overall ability as a pitcher rather then a signal that things will soon miraculously change.

13 All I'm saying is not enough has happened up to now to freak out over the starting pitching.

I agree with you Jon. Though, I am not all that enamored with Penny & Lowe anyway, so I guess I am not completely surprised by their struggles. Again, the fact they both seem to do it every year is more a statement of their overall abilities as pitchers.

14 Derek Lowe has been a very good pitcher for us in the last three years. Is there any pitcher out there except the true elite that doesn't go through struggles?

Not to be redundant, but ya gotta admit:

It's truly remarkable that Jones only has 4 RBIs thus far. I mean, Kemp had 5 RBIs in one inning, for Ch-i's sake.

16 He may have been a good pitcher for the Dodgers but he is not a #2 starter. Now, true enough it's not his fault he is not a #2, but that is what the Dodgers have tabbed him.

Using the free version of Baseball-Reference, I looked at RBIs (in ascending order) for players with 100 or more PAs.

The free version only lets me see 1 name, to wit: Andruw Jones.

D4P needs validation for his observation that Jones is having a poor season. Can anyone confirm?

I'm not even trying to say he's having a bad season. I'm just trying to point how how amazing his RBI total is.

20 I'm shocked, shocked! to find that Jones has been struggling so far.

(And to find that gambling has been going on here.)

21 - Sorry, my bad.

Again: this is not about struggling. It's about an amazing statistic.

COME ON!

Willy Taveras has 127 PAs (one more than Andruew Jones) and also has just 4 RBI.

It is an amazing statistic about struggling. Or maybe it's less amazing then it is just depressing, maybe that's more the point. It makes me want to cry.

Speaking of which, time to give kitty her pill again.

I guess it's not as remarkable as I thought, though, to be fair, Taveras bats leadoff.

26

"Don't forget to bring a towel!"

-Towelie

26
You should get some "pill pockets" from your vet or some place like PetSmart. They work great.

I think it's equally amazing that Troy Tulowitzki started off far worse than Andruw Jones and had more RBI. Before he got injured, Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 17.

Not to validate D4P's "amazing statistic" but the guy was brought in for 25hr and 100 rbi's just like Baez was brought in for 30+ saves and Nomar for 90 rbi and juan for 200 hits and 50 steals.

28 - I learned that from Douglas Adams.

29 - Hmm, never heard of that. Sounds good, though the hiding it in wet food trick works just fine. She'll eat anything from a can.

though the hiding it in wet food trick works just fine

Yeah, it's pretty much the same idea.

I don't understand why Torre would consider starting Park over Kuo. It doesn't really seem like much of a decision to me. But he is the baseball genius, and we're just getting moldy in our armchairs...

D4P-I noticed Jones' RBI was shockingly low, too. Even lower than one would expect. Of course, it could also be party because he has guys like Kemp hitting in front of him who regularly clear the bases.

Of course, it could also be party because he has guys like Kemp hitting in front of him who regularly clear the bases

Not to mention:

w/runners on: .080/.193/.080/.273
w/RISP: .038/.219/.038/.257

so guys, I'm graduating college in 6 days...what's the real world like? Scary?

37
Every single day you get beaten upside the head by life. It's an unending series of disappointments. After a week, you'll be like most of us and just curled up in the fetal position hiding under your bed and subsisting on Cheetos and Red Bull.

37

Cold and pointless.

what's the real world like?

Well, there's this bike messenger named "Puck" who likes to cause a lot of trouble...

38 and 39 are not very comforting thoughts.

I seem to remember speculation that A. Jones' tailoff last season was attributed to the fact that he had been using steroids and with all the scrutiny he stopped taking them last season. So he's kinda like how Gagne is now. In other words, he's finished.

Plus he's so much bigger now than he used to be - which brings to mind how Bonds' appearance altered over time.

37 Trust me, do something you love, even if it means leaving money on the table at this early stage of your life. You can make it up later.

Anyhow, I firmly believe if Schmidt or Kershaw is able to fill a hole in the rotation in July, Lowe should be traded. I do not think he has been great in his Dodger career, but he has been steady/durable.

18 Who is a number two starter then?

37 Get used to the phrase "I can't, I have work tomorrow".

Andruw Jones has 9 times more strikeouts than rbi. 36/4. During Michael Jordan minor league season, he had 2.2 times more stikeouts than rbi 114/51.

More than 100 Ks in a season with 25 or fewer RBI:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/tNCs

what's the real world like?

I don't know. I'm still in academia.

Nate, the real world can be fun, and you have more control over what you do, and it can be scary, and it can get you down, and it can get you up, and, and... well, basically find a job in something you like, or working towards a goal, and you will have a head start on a lot of people. Do what you love and good things will follow. Get a job in baseball. Get an internship somewhere. Try different experiences. Join social/activity clubs to meet new people.

42 I don't think steroids has much to do with it. He's pressing at the plate and his bat speed is slower. Don't see how steroids affects that.

43 I wouldn't trade Lowe unless the Dodgers are out of the race by then, which is quite unlikely. He's been steady for sure, much steadier than almost any other pitcher in baseball over the past 4 seasons. If he continues to look awful, then maybe some decisions have to be made but I don't see it happening.

My least favorite part of the real world is bills. Having to pay them, basically.

Jones apparently was seen commenting last night after hitting a double that he should have hit it out. To me, it looks like his home run power is just not there anymore.

51

I saw him saying that last night, but he seemed to be referring to the idea that his mechanics were the cause. The one home run he hit this year was a bomb. I really don't think a decline in strength is the problem.

42
Discussing PEDS these days seems to be somewhat out af favor, but I agree with your assesment. Players could use that stuff to bulk up and get really big and strong, enhancing "explosive" strength, as in getting the hands/bat to the pitched ball.
Another way that players have used that stuff was to maintain there bodies and enhance recovery time. Pitchers could take lower doses and speed up their bodies ability to mend between starts.
Tell tale signs of use - torn tendons, muscles tearing away from tendons. How long has it been since we've heard of a case of patellar tendonitis?
Sudden drop-offs in performance over the past 24 months, especially in players over 30 years old might indicate in some cases that there is something they they have used in the past that they can't use now.
Oh my! I'm not suggesting that anyone is doing it now! Neither am I suggesting that every player that has had a drop off in their performance was a user in the past. There is a pattern to be observed though.
I am looking for years of service for players to go decline, on average, as compared to say, the past ten years.

Jones is pretty much the exact kinda player I would avoid as a GM in this "post-roid" era.

37--The real world is better than college because you can still do college like things, but instead of having to remember useless facts and study for tests---you make money from 9-5 and then go home.

If you're leaving your college town and moving to a totally different place where you wont know anyone--yeah that could take awhile to get adjusted. But I definitely thinking making money at a job>>>>>>>broke college student.

43--I wouldnt trade Lowe either because you'd be giving up a draft pick if you did. He's the perfect guy to offer arbitration to next year bc he wont take it and he should qualify as an "A" list free agent. Dodgers should get a 1st rounder for him.

Nate - the real world isn't much different than college life, you know hanging with the crew, picking college girls and then heading back to the crib for beer bongs and hot tubs.

Of course you have to be QB of the Arizona Cardinals to have that type of life.

Now you are a pretty young dude so don't hung up on finding your career the day after graduation, its more than likely what you think your job will be right now won't be what you'll be doing 5 years from now.

One other technique for pets and pills (at least for Tigger): peanut butter. Smother the pill(s) in that and no worries, mate.

Tigger's been on antibiotics for a month and that's what works for her.

54 56

Well I already have this job offer that I am planning on accepting soon in Scottsdale. There is a comfort level there because 2 people I know pretty well are also going on board with them as a new college grad like me.

I don't plan to start until August though. I plan to make this summer awesome.

Just enjoy your 20's, meet as many women as you can, travel a lot, wait until your 30's to do things like settle down and have a family and work 9-5. And if possible, find a way to not work 9-5.

Hey Canuck, you want to tag-team Sickels Mock Draft this year?

53

I just read the chapter on age and decline in "Baseball Between the Numbers". Now I am really sad about the Pierre, Nomar, and Jones signings. Although, at least Jones was for only two years.

My lab takes his pills out of my hand. It's amazing.

37 If I could offer you only one tip for the future, it would be: wear sunscreen.

60 -- I don't have a problem with you handling it alone. Truth be told, I hardly check out that site anymore. It doesn't seem the same since the switch to SBN.

49 Life is always much more enjoyable if you spend less than you take in and save some for the future. This may seem contradictory -- you might imagine someone having a lot of fun, running up a credit card to do a lot of traveling or whatever. But in the end, those bills and the interest come due, and it is no fun working to pay off interest.

I echo the overall sentiment to do something you love, and to try to make a contribution to the world, or a difference in someone's life. Failing that, at least bring in enough money that you can relax at night and enjoy the weekends.

59 There's also the advantage of finding a woman you love in your 20s and enjoying an extra 10 years with her by your side. Waiting till your 30s isn't always all its cracked up to be, and marriage doesn't have to be equivalent to "settling down". Lots of people get married and continue to have fun before deciding to have kids later on.

Lots of people get married and continue to have fun before deciding to have kids later on

...at which time, the fun stops.

66

Well I want a horde of little minions to battle your horde. So I would probably have to start soon.

To Poster Eric Stephen in his post no. 1 from yesterday: Please never do that again!! Never presume we will have a winning series based on the matchups of the pitchers going in! It is folly with this team! We all thought the same thing going into Atlanta not having to face Smoltz or Hudson and look at the results. Baseball is too fickle a game and you can never underestimate an opponent or overestimate your own players. This game will humble you too fast. Saying this was looking like a very winnable series was basically akin to the Coreolone "Kiss of Death" for this series. Please refrain from this in the future. It will save us all from great heartache and gnashing of teeth.

67 Or starts all over again. Depending on how you look at it.

68 Have at it. If you wait too long, your minions will have to also deal with my grand-minions.

69 Don't blame him, blame the guy who bet the $50.

If Marty or anybody else hasn't posted it, a great map of America by baseball fandome.

http://tinyurl.com/5lq3hx

Wow, Nate is graduating. Our little baby is all growns up.

66, 68-

And lots of people fall in love and then wait a very long time before exchanging vows for a variety of practical reasons, not the least of which includes learning more about yourself each year of your 20's than you ever thought possible.

Travel a lot. Stay out late. And love love love love love. Even if it blows up in your face.

Oh, and try to pay off your CC bill every month. Ignore than whole "minimum payment" thing. And if you ever have to charge a bagel, stop going on trips to Belgium.

37 47 I left academia for the real world just long enough to learn a great truth: there is no real world. Just another crazy place, only without semester breaks.

43 55 I advocated trading Lowe last August. But at this point, I'd take the draft pick.

76 Except you can be fired in the private sector.

Come and get me, jerks!

Except you can be fired in the private sector

Though, it's much easier to hired in the first place...

Even better than credit cards -- take out a wad of cash each month, and spend that. When it's done, you're done spending. Really teaches you to be thrifty.

78 And you don't have to be stuck on Saturdays writing two papers that are due on Monday.

79
I would go one step further. You can finance yourself pretty well by the occasional liquor store holdup along with a few well-timed white collar crimes.

61 The team's new PR slogan: "Think Only Two Years."

If you follow Zappala's advice in 79, please let me know what day you'll do your wad of cash withdrawing, and whether you prefer to be beaten with a sack full of doorknobs, or a sack full of nickel rolls.

80
I'm nearing the completion of the draft for the 4th different paper from my dissertation. There was a point at which I worried whether I'd even be able to write 2, but I've learned a lot about how to "slice the salami", as the saying goes.

Hey Nate, let me recommend a book to you: The "4-Hour Workweek" by Tim Ferris.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_hour_work_week

I'm not claiming the book is good. Or even that I've read it. A friend recently told me about it.

You can come back to let me know if it changes your life. :)

There is a yellow alert for Carlos Delgado in New York.

Yellow alert.

Welcome to the "Meaning of Life" Thoughts

Zach Miner of the Tigers introduced his teammate Curtis Granderson as "the hardest working man in baseball."

I thought that was Juan Pierre's sobriquet? They both can't be the hardest working. Something has to give.

69 - Erik has special powers that should be respected.

88
What if there are others who are working even harder, but we don't hear much about because they are on small market teams?
Doesn't this call for an investigation of some kind?

What if there are others who are working even harder, but we don't hear much about because they are on small market teams?

Or we don't hear much about because they are good enough that we can compliment them regarding things that actually matter?

But the Dodgers' hardest working man has a ring.

A. RING.

92
Like Frodo?

Cycle alert canceled in New York.

Stand down.

Don't know if anyone has mentioned this today or last night, but Lowe has not been seem since the guy he left after five innings with that elbow injury. Coincidence?

95. And the grammar I can't write--since the GAME!

95
Didn't he have some trouble with his right hip in the second half last season? Hey, he'll only be 35 on June 1.

89 - But even he should know to respect the game of baseball and not anger the forces that control it. Even "Annie Savoy" knew that.

95 Anyone with a brain knows that it's because he badmouthed our fair City Of Angels, which sits on the same latitude as the Holy Land thus angering the Gods...err God.

99 . That was my second choice.

Wilson Betemit pulls a hamstring running out a double.

Nate
Don't compromise your values; treat everyone with respect; work hard, enjoy your life and don't EVER become a Yankee fan.

0 - I for one noticed right away that it isn't 1965, otherwise Don LeJohn would be getting playing time at third. I voiced a concern the other day about the starting four, in the context of al of the concern for the fifth starter. Great Post, Jon.

81 - c.f. Halliburton.

81 ,104 - Don't steal.

But if you do steal, make sure you steal a LOT of money.

Nate, invest in the market at a young age. In companies like Halliburton.

Don't listen to these jerks, Nate. Go to grad school. That's the life.

I'm pretty sure I wrote a post at one time about how I was living life backwards, at least financially. I've spent most of my career doing what I wanted, and now I'm paying the price for it.

I guess my advice would be to do what you love, but try to love fewer than four different things. And have some backbone. Otherwise, you might find it hard to have the salary you want/need when you want/need it.

Or, don't be as spoiled as I am.

108 -- "Paying the price?" I would have thought working for Variety would be a nice job. Of course I say that having no idea what it pays, or what you need to pay your bills. I guess it depends on your expectations, and family responsibilities. Having kids isn't cheap, I suppose.

Jon's kids so far have proven to be unable to pull their weight when it come to paying the mortgage or buying groceries.

Cubs put up a six on the D'Backs bullpen (Qualls and Medders) to take a 7-2 lead in the top of the eighth!

Qualls threw 15 2/3 innings in April without allowing an earned run. He's allowed 9 runs, six of them earned in his last four innings.

Basement dwellers giving Nate advice on how to live his life . . . too funny.

Oops, gotta go! My mom is calling me and it's a long ways up that dark staircase. :-)

Just saw over at BP that DeWitt ranks 3rd in MLB among third basemen in Win Shares:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week47/

"...the other LA third baseman, DeWitt, is third including 1.4 fielding Win Shares. DeWitt has an above-average Revised Zone Rating at third, plus he has racked up 62 assists in just 211 innings at the position, the highest pace of any NL hot-sacker."

114 -- Correction. Hardball Times.

110 -- Hmmm, how old are they? Remember the song in Fiddler On The Roof? "At three I went to Hebrew school/ At four I learned a trade..."

At three I started Hebrew school
At ten I learned a trade.

117 -- Really? Ten? Been a long time since I saw the movie, clearly.

118- I never get to do this, so I'm totally going to bigfoot you on this: I saw it in London, with Topol playing Tevye.

37 No more homework, hoorah! Seriously, that's one of the best parts of leaving school, and starting in on your career. Your evenings and weekends tend to be much more your own.

119
And Jon's oldest is a girl and she is being taught to mend and fix and preparing to marry whomever Papa picks.

And you thought giving a dog a pill was tough:

http://tinyurl.com/5ch2zz

Ugh, still no Furcal again tonight. Per Diamond Leung:

http://tinyurl.com/5wk933

I saw Saito shaking hands with the Mayor, on the news last night. He's unavailable (with flu-like symptoms) for the second straight night.

I'd say, "You do the math," except I sincerely suspect foul play.

dang no sammy or raffy tonight? Again, tonight would be a great time for a win with chicago beating zona again..

Per ItD . . .

Pierre, LF
DeWitt, 3B
Kemp, RF
Kent, 2B
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Jones, CF
Hu, SS
Billingsley, P

Tonight's lineup, from Inside the Dodgers:

Pierre, LF

DeWitt, 3B

Kemp, RF

Kent, 2B

Martin, C

Loney, 1B

Jones, CF

Hu, SS

Billingsley, P

DeWitt batting second, whoa!

Dept of Small Samples...but unfortunate nonetheless...

Current Dodger roster is 7 for 29, 0 BB vs. Chris Sampson.

Kent (3 for 3)
Furcal (2 for 3)
Nomar (1 for 3)
Juan for 5.

NPUT

122 That's for when folks crumple up and thrown onto the ground Plaschke's column.