Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
I'm still overwhelmed, still not getting enough sleep. But it's not the baby's fault. Almost miraculously, he started sleeping six- and seven-hour stretches a week or so ago, and he only turns two months old on Tuesday. It took his older brother more than six months to get a good night's sleep.
Even when the little one wakes up at 4 or 5 in the morning, he goes right back to sleep after he's been fed, rather than kicking a fuss for another hour. We are beside ourselves with glee, all the time knocking on wood (even as I write this).
No, I'm up in the wee hours and dragging myself out of bed in the mornings for another reason entirely.
Shortly before we headed to the hospital for the birth of Nipper 3, I got an offer from Triumph Books, a sports division of Random House, to write the Dodger version of this book: 100 Things Mets Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die. I wanted to wait until the deal was done and I had made some headway in the writing before mentioning it here, but I'm pleased to be able to tell you today that it's happening: 100 Things Dodger Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die, by me. And I have you in part to thank for it. If it weren't for your support of my writing and the way you have helped developed this site's reputation for thoughtful and fun conversation about the Dodgers, I don't know that this dream of mine to write a Dodger book - for reals - would ever have come true. So thanks - I mean it.
Of course, your work isn't done. You should be able to purchase 100 Things Dodger Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die (a title that's a little morbid for my taste, but think positive) next spring, so start saving money for it now: I'm counting on you. It's going to be 100 percent new writing that you haven't seen online - or, 99 percent anyway - so there's all the more reason to shell out for it.
If you have any suggestions for the book, feel free to offer them in the thread below. As you can tell from the title, it's not all about events like Kirk Gibson's homer; it may also have chapters or sidebars on getting a bag of peanuts from Roger Owens or that game-winning pinch hit by Tim Leary years ago. The book will be tilted more toward the Los Angeles era, because there's general agreement that about 10 times as many Brooklyn-era books have been written, though it will go back all the way to the 19th century for ideas. I've already got more than 150 items on my list, so it's been hard for me to imagine I'm missing anything, but I've had two friends come up with good ideas I hadn't thought of, so I figured it would be good to check in with you all.
The pace is exhausting if you consider my other obligations - with an October 1 deadline, I have to average almost a chapter a day to get the first draft done in time for me to have the revising time I want, but let me tell you, it's been fun. I think you'll enjoy reading it.
1. R.J. Reynolds
2. Pedro Guerrero, at his peak, the best offensive player to ever play for the Los Angeles not named Mike Piazza.
3. Farmer John
4. Andy Messersmith, the player who changed baseball.
5. How Bob Costas won the 1988 World Series for the Dodgers.
6. Best Weekend in Dodger history, Astros vs. Dodgers, 1980.
7. Vic Davillio
8. May 7, 1970
9. Junior Gilliam
10. Jerry Doggett
I must admit I have little to offer in the way of ideas. I'm sure anything I could mention would already be on your list, but it will be great to see everyone's ideas flow in and I can't wait to see the final result.
So awesome.
It remains one of Allen's best.
http://www.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_9306112
When do the pre-orders start??
Glad to hear about the new one sleeping, I was just thinking about that this weekend, my second is sleeping really well now (16 mos). Knock on my head.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/TV/05/19/lonianderson.weds.ap/index.html
Looking forward to bringing at least one copy of your book to this side of the pond. And thank you as always (to Ken, also) for providing a valuable and civil forum.
But as for your comment about Jones -- what data was there available to support the idea that Jones would be any good? I know that there were a lot of sabermetric types who liked this deal; Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus was one, calling it "far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter". But for me the crucial information was
1) reports of his increased weight last year, and a general tendency towards apathy about conditioning. Having suffered through most of the Angels' contract to Bartolo Colon, that makes a huge difference.
2) Dave Studeman's piece at THT about Jones' line drive rates, which had been declining for some time, which was written as a companion piece to the contemporaneous John Beamer article, also on Jones:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/andruw-jones-batted-balls/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/will-batting-220-hurt-andruw-jones-contract-chances/
FWIW, I wrote a roundup post with a bunch of links to various opinions on the signing here:
http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2007/12/dodgers-sign-andruw-jones-to-2-year.html
It was an awful risk to take.
Stan from Tacoma
Another one: learn about the shin-kicking contest between Leo Durocher and Jocko Conlan. One of the great moments at the Coliseum.
Things that should be in the book:
- The 22-inning marathon games of 1989.
- The last game of the 1993 season.
- Jack Fimple.
- How Jody Reed doomed the Dodgers for a decade.
- Cool-a-coos.
- Ross Porter and Jerry Doggett.
- Game 4 of the 1988 NLCS.
- Mike Piazza getting hosed out of back-to-back MVPs in 1996-97.
- Dave Kingman's performance.
- 4+1, of course.
- A visit to Dodgertown, even though the Dodgers aren't there anymore.
- A visit to the former site of Ebbets Field, even though the Dodgers aren't there anymore.
- Why Robert Moses is more of a villain than Walter O'Malley.
- Why you should never pitch to Jack Clark with runners on base and first base open in the late innings of a close playoff game.
Things that shouldn't be in the book:
- Juan Pierre.
FWIW, I thought your "Buttercup" entry awhile back was fantastic and wouldn't mind reading it again in the book.
There were 183,324 events like that in his set (going back to 1956 with a few older years added in). 99.65% of the time, the batter is out. 3,311 batters reached first. 82 reached second. 10 reached third.
Some of the batters who reached third involved a combination of a wild pitch or two errors.
I agree with Disabled List's, uh, list in 23, though I should think that Jack Fimple should be at #1. That goes without saying, however.
And the last one on that list made me think maybe there should be a section of its own, for "events/plays you need to know that still make Dodger fans bitter" including Joe Morgan and yes, Jack Clark, and other painful memories that any true fan still needs to be aware of when some of us mopes bring it up.
See how many Dodger Dogs you can eat in the right field pavillion (I am doing that one tonight)
Pop a beach ball at Dodger Stadium
Do "The Wave"
Go to a day game in August and not sit in the shade
Go on the field for Picture Day
Watch fireworks for the field
--that all i have for now, but I'm sure more will come to me
He must have got caught thinking 2007 was just an aberration, instead of the start of a decline.
Druw was never a high OBP guy, and as player age they tend to lose their power first (due to loss of bat speed).
Sheehan must have only loved the contract, but still 36 mils over two years is nothing to sneeze at.
I think most people here thought it was an ok move, but if Pierre played LF that it was really a nothing move that would end up costing the team alot of money. No one thought Druw would be this bad, but then again I dont think anyone would give Druw 2/36 for him to repeat his 2007 season either.
there was a group of 3 girls and a guy behind us. they were having pretty interesting conversations on topics such as, how much weed they smoke, all the guys they've had sex with and their aspirations to become a stripper. they were having margarita after margirta than i hear one girl say "hun, you're under-aged and if your father see's you drunk he'll kill me." than i turned around and realized that these conversations they were having was with one of the girls mother. and of course after a few drinks i hear here say i'm going to try to be one sportscenter and she than was flashing the crowd a number of times. than i hear her mom say "it's ok there are no kids around." that makes me think soceity has take a hop skip and a jump backwards
but other than that i'm glad i went to the win, becuase the angels and their fans annoy me, but of course they take 2 out of 3 and continue to own the blue.
Glad you at least chose to see the right game.
---
Hope the Dodgers wake up against a suddenly hot Reds team at home, starting tonight.
Good news that Furcal will probably be back on Friday. Not that the team's missed him or anything...
Before I logged on this morning, I thought I'd ask you to write a post about the wall hitting Derek Lowe, but then I read your post below and thought I'd hold back. Lets just get Furcal back.
As for the book, here are my humble suggestions:
-ice cream for days in first place (I wonder if team employees gain a lot of wait in good seasons).
-Steve Yeager, the inventor
-the two Mike Marshalls and how to tell them apart (one is indestructible, and the other well, less so)
-how to perform an appendectomy at home
-Tommy Lasorda stories in shorthand
I'm sure I'll come up with more, not that I think it'll help you much, but it'll amuse me.
-
Is there anywhere that has game logs with errors included? It would make my life a lot easier.
Game logs for what? The minors?
Retrosheet will have them when the season is over. But B-R and MLB.com don't compile them I believe while the season is ongoing.
Check the caption and the photo credit.
http://www.standard.net/live.php/news/133306?photo_id=10476
http://tinyurl.com/3henpm
Anybody know where I can find the upcoming pitching assignments for the Suns? The Suns are coming to my neck of the woods this weekend to play the Mudcats at beautiful Five County Stadium, right outside of Lizard Lick, NC. I'd like to see Kershaw or McDonald if possible but I can't seem to find out who is due to start. I suspect Kershaw will still be with the Suns and might pitch Thursday.
Thanks...
Living in California, where many counties are bigger than New England states, makes the idea of a "Five Counties Stadium" seem quite funny.
I suppose if you wedged a stadium in a place like Diamond Bar or Corona, you could conceivably say you serve four counties (L.A., Orange, San Berdoo, and Riverside), but aside from the screwball counties in the Gold Country, I can't find a spot where you can get five California counties to share a land border.
But it's SFW!
Finally something to look forward to doing in October, since I highly doubt I'll be going to Dodger games then...
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/essays/rickey/goodby_to_old_idea.htm
long before most others were.
if only a few more in the dodger front office would take notice.
Anyway, that grab and throw is amazing. ANd as much as I love your words, seeing it is believing it so to speak.
There's no nudity or foul language. There's not even any blood.
But I guess I will now have to declare 46 NSFW.
Zito is 0-8 so far this season. But did you know...?
If we adjust the Quality Starts rule to include the 5th inning (rule says 6 innings/3 ER), Zito has six quality starts!! Already!
Guess how many Q-starts Derek Lowe has this year? Five, and none since May 1st. Lowe is done.
sources:
Zito: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=zitoba01&t=p&year=2008
Lowe: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=lowede01&t=p&year=2008
63 etal. O.K., once I got over my initial revulsion and feelings of betrayal (my shattered belief that any link that Bob points out is worth a click), I clicked again and read closer. That was pretty amazing.
Bob Timmermann, creating senses of betrayal since 1967.
I was on the up and up the first two years of my life.
Something I'd suggest, which works into either a larger theme of experience the Dodgers-Giants rivalry or see the Dodgers on the road:
- Go see the Dodgers play a game against the Giants in AT&T Park (or whatever they call it the year you go). Ideally, you want to see the Dodgers both win one and lose one, just so you can see how different the home crowd is towards Dodger fans. In defeat, they are humbled and meek. In victory, they are emboldened and vicious. Sit in the bleachers if you really want to see this in full force.
So I'm watching the replay of Saturday's game against WSU and its the bottom of the 8th inning, what song do I hear in the background.
Neil Diamond's tribute to JFK's eldest.
What, no Doors?
I'm 1-0 at Angel Stadium of La Habra!
75 I was going to post a similar thought - so it's odd that we share a rather uncommon first name.
I've seen the Dodgers almost only in SF (quick back story: born in LA, became Dodgers fan, family moved to SF area after 2nd grade, lived in enemy territority ever since), and it's unique experience.
The book should definitely discuss the unruly crowds of Candlestick (lustily booing Lasorda on his walk from the outfield to the visitor's dugout).
The AT&T park crowd was well behaved from 2000-2006: the team was successful, Bonds was rolling, the beautiful new ballpark was still a novelty.
Enter losing seasons and bad decisions. The ballpark is a given. The high-tech, big-money crowd is leaving. The nasty, frustrated 80's-style Giants fans are coming back. It's something every Dodger fan should experience.
He was taken to the hospital with part of the javelin still stuck in him. Much of it was sawn off at the field.
It was the photographer's fault for standing in the wrong place. He walked into the javelin landing area.
Now, the Stick was a different story. (I realize we can't recommend it to anyone, unless they're going to wear a Dodger hat to a 49ers game). The bleachers, in particular, were like "Lord of the Flies." I swear they had pig heads on stakes out there. It was ugly, cold, nasty, and unsafe without fail. Now that's an experience I'd recommend.
Maybe it's just me, but I think the Babe Herman triple into a double play ought to be included. So should the defeat of the Giants in 1934, knocking them out of the pennant. That was the year (http://preview.tinyurl.com/4d4d7v) Giants manager Bill Terry had said "Is Brooklyn still in the league?" during the winter meetings.
'Course, by rights one should also include Durocher's gesture and comment about Mel Ott and his Giants: "Nice guys finish last," although there's some question about the actual wording of that famous quotation.
Many people were upset that Bonds did not play on that day, biggest cheer that I recall was for Arnold Palmer who waved to the crowd.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/49gnum
including a collection of Jerome Holtzman's writing, which I'm sure Bob will appreciate.
http://www.doubledogmusic.com/baseball/Scully_Koufax_Perfect.mp3
Or can it also include partisan nuggets of Dodger wisdom -- like going to Philippe's for a double-dip and a 9-cent cup of java before an afternoon game?
The complete (or mostly complete) perfect game was recorded by Dave Smith of Retrosheet off the radio. Or more precisely by his father. He was off on a date that night and the recording contains Dave's dad hoping that he thanks him for remembering to turn on the tape recorder for him.
It was not standard practice then to record entire broadcasts of sporting events. The ninth inning exists because Scully told the KFI engineers back in the studio to record it.
His comments about the time of the game were put in during the broadcast because Scully liked to give a pitcher the recording of the ninth inning and he thought the time of day would help the player remember the events better.
Fortunately the MLBAM goons also work in tech support, so they would end up breaking the kneecaps of Daniel's neighbors while repeatedly yelling "SILVERLIGHT! SILVERLIGHT!"
Stan from Tacoma (a poster here who hasn't surfaced much lately) sent me a tape of some good stuff, including a fight that broke out during a Dodgers-Giants game, IIRC at the Coliseum, called by Vinny. Hilarious stuff, but it's got a lot of noise on it, and I keep meaning to get Helen to do some postproduction on it to clean it up before I release the results to the world.
MLB.com makes it difficult but possible to buy many classic recordings. It's not available from the top-level MLB.com shop; instead, you have to drill down from the Dodgers home page to Baseball's Best. Or, you could just follow this link:
http://tinyurl.com/4kzq6u
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://dodgers2001.com
How to get in and out of DS.
4 Things Dodger fans should do:
Post at this site at least once
Watch the Dodgers win the WS (Oh to do it at least 1 more time)
See a Dodger game somewhere besides DS
Go to Spring Training
http://web.archive.org/web/20020606182956/www.dodgers2001.com/multimedia/audio_gallery/
SILVERLIGHT! SILVERLIGHT!
http://www.archive.org/details/HankAaron-715thHomeRun-ThreeDifferentCalls
I'd hurry up and download it now before MLBAM shuts it down.
Maybe Gross is more of a Brett Tomko.
This has been good. Most of what's been mentioned I already have on my list, but there are a few things here to add. Getting harder and harder to trim the list.
(For Jerry Reuss' perfect game)
http://tinyurl.com/6all68
Btw, as one who attended games at both Candlestick and the new PhoneCoPark, I have a nostalgia for the 'stick that doesn't mean I actually miss going there. As rabid and obnoxious as Giants fans can be now at Dodger-Giant games there, I don't fear for my life as I once did at the 'stick, as a Freshman in college.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1980/B06270SFN1980.htm
I happen to know because that is one of my favorite regular-season Dodger game of all time, up there with the 2004 division clincher and the 4+1 game.
It was a Bill Russell error.
Besides Bruce, Clayton Kershaw is the prospect fantasy leaguers are waiting for. However, the 20-year-old has averaged right around five innings per start in the minors and still has well below average command. He might be as tough to hit as any pitcher in the league once his chance comes, but his debut could look a lot like Chad Billingsley's in 2006 (3.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 58 walks in 90 IP).
I find this not only poorly researched but also very pessimistic. First, how is 3.19 BB/9 this season "well below average" command? And a big reason why Kershaw is averaging 5 IP per start is because of pitch count/innings restrictions.
As far as the comparison to '06 Billingsley, I don't see it. Chad's walk totals were high at AAA Las Vegas shortly before his call-up, so it was an issue coming in. With the exception of Saturday's start, Kershaw's command has been very good thus far.
120 I don't recall anyone Dodger fans fearing for their safety either. I noticed that some of Dodger fans who wore Dodger gear would sometimes get food thrown at them if they were really loud or obnoxious, but it was usually just verbal abuse. I also found the atmosphere extremely lively and entertaining. Candelstick was often brutally cold at night so I tried to attend the day games when travelling up there with the Dodgers.
120 Generally it was indeed more paranoia than any real threat, and the atmosphere was memorable, but I did have batteries hurled at me once -- presumably because of my Dodger hat and not because my walkman was dying and someone was trying to be helpful. But in general it was mostly a lot of yelling and some colorful characters and not any real danger. I've seen a few fights between LA and SF fans at the new park, too, generally between two groups of people I would love to see accidentally walk off the platform into McCovey Cove and devoured by sea lions.
I also remember being in college and having two tickets to go see the Dodgers at the 'stick for an early season series, in April, dragging a friend from the dorms who was from Colorado and not a fan of either team but into baseball in general, taking a ridiculous bus ride there, seeing storm clouds come in, have it rain on us as we walked through the edge of that sketchy area outside the park and then have the game rained out. I couldn't believe it rained in April in SF. How cruel! That was a long bus ride back to the dorms, full of surly Giants fans.
This matter I believe bothers only Eric and I unfortunately.
It's especially unfortunate when denying the Dodgers American Association existence means the franchise cannot state that it is the only franchise to win consecutive pennants in two different leagues.
The Dodgers also won a pennant as a minor league team.
See the Dodgers on the road.
Living in San Diego, I go to see the Dodgers here a lot, and there have been times I've been heckled (I always wear Dodger gear) but it's generally mild-mannered.
My Dodger Road Record
San Diego 7-20 (including clinching the division on 9/30/95)
San Francisco 2-0 (including clinching a playoff spot on 9/30/06)
Colorado 1-0 (Alex Cora had 2 HR and a double off the wall)
Arizona 0-1 (Drove to/from SD same day; I believe Matt Mantei got the save)
I have to look up my ticket stubs when I get home to see the record in Anaheim.
Rotoworld only cares about the fantasy baseball implications, so from that perspective, Kershaw's inability to pitch deep into games is highly relevant, even though it's no fault of his own that the Dodgers are limiting his pitch counts.
The one area where I think (or maybe just hope) Kershaw will be different from Billingsley's first year is his ability to miss bats. His K rate is much higher than Chad's was, so I don't think he'll encounter the sudden inability to strike guys out that plagued Billingsley during his rookie year.
Colorado 0-2
St. Louis 1-0
No, North just hit a little dribbler in front of the mound.
Such a thing would be logistically challenging. I don't think such a thing would fit onto a four DVD set, even...
I've heard conflicting stories about how beer was sold at Candlestick.
One of my games is the same game as one of Bob's losses in Colorado. I'm blaming that one on him though.
I blame Paul Shuey. Or the Dodgers having to start Wilkin Ruan in center. Or Paul Lo Duca in left field. And Daryle Ward at first.
You can also go to Mike's Hockey Burger on Washington and Soto for good food and more Dodger photos. BTW, a hockey burger is a cheeseburger with a hot dog on top. Kind of like a Shack Burger.
You should include, if you can, the final weekend of the 1980 season. Three games out, three to play, against first-place Houston. On Friday night, Joe Ferguson hits a home run in the 10th inning to win the game--famously throwing his batting helmet into the stands as he rounds third. Two games out. The following afternoon, Jerry Reuss outduels Nolan Ryan, 2-1. One game out. On Sunday afternoon, the final day of the regular season, after Burt Hooton lasts only one inning, Ron Cey caps a comeback from a 3-0 deficit with a two-run eighth inning homer and Don Sutton, the starting pitcher on Friday, comes in to record the final out. Tied for first place. With all the momentum in our favor, and no doubt in my twelve-year old heart that we are going to win the one game playoff on Monday, Dave Goltz is shelled, and the Dodgers, and young Robert, are crushed 7-1.
For me, this was the most exciting weekend I ever spent as a Dodger's fan.
You can also still see the restaurant that was Lasorda's on Fair Oaks in South Pasadena. I think it's called Carmines now.
On the subject of Candlestick, I can confirm, from many games attended there, that the fans were mostly nasty toward visiting fans. I never had a problem because I never dared to wear Dodger gear, and am not obnoxious when cheering for the visiting team. But I saw plenty to dissuade me. It was much more relaxed if you had decent seats behind home plate, but not fun if you were in any of the cheaper seats.
vr, Xei
Lasorda's restaurant is indeed Carmine's. And it does a lot of business. Although I'm not sure why.
The Yankees received payback for that with A-Rod's slap of Arroyo's glove in the 2004 ALCS.
Older fans would tell you that the end of the 1962 season was far more devastating.
If you say "1962" to some Dodgers fans they react like Steve Martin when he hears "cleaning woman" in "Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid."
vr, Xei
They played twice in Pac-10 conference competition each winning 4-3 on the road.
Chan Ho's horrific inning against St. Louis/Fernando Tatis?
The Jack Clark game is probably the toughest Dodger loss for me in my lifetime. I felt like Pedro Guerrero when he slammed his glove in the left field grass as the ball was going out.
I recently discovered the existence (after 80 or so years) of the Eastside Italian Market and Deli. On College west, of the 110, it is probably the single closest eating establishment to Dodger Stadium. And they make some pretty good sandwiches. Not open in the evenings, though.
http://www.esmdeli.com/
Up 2-0 then dropping 4 straight, I wondered if my Dodgers would ever get another oppurtunity, compound that with a down year in 1979 and then anticlimatic loss to the Astros in the playoff in 1980 and the team that I grew up with seemed destined to be a runner up.
I don't think I truly believed the Dodgers could ever win a World Series until Pete and Boomer went deep against Ron Guidry in 1981.
Funny, how its not Piazza who hit the most important home run as a Dodger catcher, it was Steve Yeager in 1981 and Mike Sciocia in 1988 who equally hold that claim.
Which goes to show how out of touch he is.
If Zeile or Murray got a run home with the bases loaded, the Giants win the day before would have been forgotten.
Toy Cannon has a sandwich place too that he frequents.
Marty and I hated the old Nick's with unbridled passion.
I will not be torn about that.
As the song goes, "We're loyal to the Southland..."
1) Reggie in 77. Can we bleeping pitch around him? Or drill him in the back or something? No pain like the first pain.
2) The 92 season. If you insist on a single game, pick any one from the string of riot makeup double headers in August. That season just depressing, and is the flip-side to all of the painful moments with good Dodger teams that were denied.
170 You mean Gus', right? I like Nick's.
Sorry, confused there.
121 This game is one of my all time favorite Dodger games as it was a no-hitter thrown on my birthday against our most hated rivals and the final score if I'm not mistaken was 8-0 which is my lucky number.
The Phillies comeback in 1990 was in the pre-internet, pre-televised baseball explosion. I remember being at my cousin's house not being able to watch the game because it was at home and not all games were televised back then.
We would get updates at 0:20 & 0:50 past the hour via Headline News sports (incidentally, this is how I also first heard Shaq signed with the Lakers in 1996), and I remember being shocked that the Dodgers lost their insurmountable lead.
I have no idea why we weren't just listening on radio.
Unfortunately, Chan Ho Park didn't make the same immediate impact as Hideo Nomo so there wasn't a Parkmania. And there hasn't been a Kuomania either.
If there had only been a Chenmania.
vr, Xei
1. Joe Morgan HR off Forester
2. Reggie Jackson's Illegal Hip Check
3. Jack Clark HR off Niedenfuer
Google it.
vr, Xei
The Dodgers have had some very good and exciting players in their history--Snider, Robinson, Wills etc. But there probably exists a core of consciousness that some Dodgers teams have had and others haven't. I am talking about players like Pee Wee Reese, Gil Hodges, and Roy Campanella. Figure out who to include in this category and maybe how they have made the Dodgers better.
That, and Alex Cora's 18-pitch at-bat. These small, yet amazing plays will probably be lost to posterity unless someone writes a book titled something like "Legendary exploits of light-hitting Dodger middle infielders of the 2000s."
"Did you mean: guzmania?"
However, the Dodgers actually clinched their playoff spot first. An Expos' loss Friday night guaranteed the Dodgers at least the wild card, and the Padres clinched a spot on Saturday. So Sunday's game was all about playoff seeding rather than the division crown.
Living in San Diego though, I had to take a lot of crap from a lot of people for losing that division, and it still sticks in my craw.
vr, Xei
The Dodgers also eliminated the Giants from the playoffs with that win.
Speaking of craws, you know what sticks in my craw? That my own 12-year-old son has started forwarding chain mails to me. I'm need to have a talk with him when I get home.
Bob is also getting an opportunity to display his immense talents on another stage by fielding calls from irate shoppers. That number again is....
He's going to get in trouble for that.
The WAR projections I was giving include the season to date. They also match up with other projection systems, and whenever I look at players I compare my projection with a weighted average of other projections, and I researched the best algorithm for doing so. It doesn't really matter to me whether you agree with my projections. The question is really about what kind of model is being used in decision-making. I use the tools I use to look at baseball because I've researched them for years and worked on understanding the significance of data.
Kuroda's 1-3 record is essentially meaningless to me. It has nothing to do with the 2.5 WAR I cited. I didn't run a projection on Kuroda's Japanese numbers, but I checked out every projection on him I could access and so far his component numbers have basically matched them. As I said, Kuroda seems like he could reasonably be higher or lower than the 2.5 I gave; it's a mean projection.
You wrote:
"Your statement is otherwise wholly contradictory, as the WAR that is the past is also the product of 'variance', or so you must concede, and for all that you and I know, the past variance is not the true indicator of the talent that is there. In other words, the 'variance' works both ways here."
Well, this is exactly the point: the projection is based on sophisticated models for finding the level of significance in past data. Of course variance works both ways; that is why projections are not about predicting the future but rather about determining our level of confidence. Baseball games are recorded mathematically. Projections are about expressing a player's expected contribution in the units of the game, instead of in subjective terms like "run-producer."
Variance is on both sides of a projection, and that is precisely the reason that a projection is no more than a best estimate given the data available. I think that there are plenty of 'baseball people' who are outstanding talent evaluators and who will never need statistics to do that. But the job of a general manager is fundamentally about correctly attributing value to players, and the evidence is ubiquitous that GM's and other baseball analysts do not know how to properly do this.
You state:
"What you are calling 'variance' I prefer to call the failure of the model to predict the result. Chien Ming Wang isn't otherwise all that variable, though he has falsified the projection models for some years running now. He's falsified the projection models because the models' underlying assumption[s] re K and/or K/9 is/are false."
Yes, variance is the failure of the model to "predict the result." There is a difference between prediction and projection, as I am using them anyway. A prediction describes a world that could emerge - i.e., Cubs over A's in 6. A projection is a best estimate based on the information available, and should be coupled with an understanding of how much variance is around it. I think it is foolish for GM's to make predictions; or at least, the role of prediction is to facilitate planning by elucidating potential scenarios. A projection, however, is a tool for composing your team, assessing its potential and likely range of results, and deciding how much to pay players or exchange for them in trades, etc.
Chien-Ming Wang may have been fouling up some projections, I don't know much about that; my projections haven't been far off on him. You can say that it's all about K's, but really the issue is that projections that don't have batted ball data will suffer with Wang because he is an extreme GB pitcher. (Incidentally, K/9 is not a very good metric since it's basically strikeouts per out; I agree that it's less than ideal, especially for pitchers like Wang.) The lesson isn't that projections are bad but that they can't do any better than their inputs.
Compare Wang's ERA's to his FIP, which is an ERA estimator using only four numbers: K, HR, BB, and IP.
2005: 4.02, 4.20
2006: 3.63, 3.91
2007: 3.70, 3.79
2008: 3.51, 3.26
So if you essentially ignore all of the balls put in play against Wang, you basically still have an accurate estimate of his performance. That doesn't mean that projections should ignore balls in play, but the point is that they are all about determining the appropriate weight of multiple interrelated variables.
I can't tell you this across the board, but the reason that Wang has outdone his projections is almost certainly that his home run rate is excessively small. If you have to regress that for someone with less than 500 IP in the minors and only 2.5 seasons thus far, you won't be able to project what he's done so far. But realistically, I don't think that that's a knock on the projections or their methodology. Wang probably will not be able to keep getting such a low percentage of his outfield flies to be HR; it would be silly to overlook that, just as it would be silly to argue that he cannot possibly keep such a low HR rate.
One more block quote:
"Tom, you wrote:
'Teams with good SP tend to excel because a good SP will have more PA on the mound than a good hitter will have at the plate. This doesn't mean that their contribution isn't basically linear and on the same scale.'
Take line 1. That means that line 2 is false. The other reason why pitching prevails over hitting is that the pitcher gets to decide what and where he throws, and so he can influence the hitter's chance of success. The hitter doesn't have that same power over the pitcher, as he hits what's served up."
I think you are missing the nuance here. Pitchers face a bunch of batters in a row, and depending on their role may face many more or many fewer batters than a typical batter will have PA in a season. Obviously, their respective tasks are radically different. However, extensive research and statistical modeling shows that the batter-pitcher matchup is not dominated by one or the other participant.
Now, I don't think that you can take the normal ways of evaluating pitchers and batters and simply scale them to each other so that the best pitchers and best hitters will be about equivalent. However, both can easily be measured in terms of a linear contribution of runs prevented/produced relative to a theoretical baseline. However you model it, I think you can agree that it is useful to compare pitchers to an average pitcher. I choose to make that comparison in the units of baseball, runs. For pitchers, to generate WAR (or wins above any other baseline - replacement level is just our best estimate of a standard against which to measure players, and as long as the method is rigorous, you can choose any appropriate baseline), you compare how many runs they yield over playing time X to how many runs the replacement pitcher would contribute. The replacement pitcher does not have to be defined as simply one individual pitcher but can rather signify the collectivity of the alternatives. For batters, we just simply give a linear weight to each individual plate appearance, and that weight equals the runs above or below average that that PA contributed. We can change the baseline from average to replacement or anything else. So if we can come up with a theoretical baseline that applies to both pitching and batting/fielding, then comparing their contribution in runs (or wins, which is essentially runs/10 in a league with 4.5 to 5 runs scored per game per team) is not difficult, though it is work.
I don't think your account of the pitcher/batter interaction is very complete. You're referring to a handful of variables as if they were the whole thing. Batters choose which pitches to swing at. Batters get to draw walks and foul off pitches. If you want to change my mind, some data would help.
Another point of confusion may be my use of the term scaling. There are many more top-level position players by WAR than pitchers, because there is a different distribution of talent at the major league level; there are more position players, pitchers are impacted differently by injury, etc. There are many, many differences between pitchers and position players. But they do not invalidate tools like WAR that are designed to put their contributions in the same units. Or at least, if they do, it is for reasons that have not shown themselves in my research and much more analysis would need to be done to establish them.
I hope this helps.
P.S. If I shouldn't be posting lengthy things like this in the DT comments, someone let me know. When I start writing I generally don't stop until I think I've communicated what I wanted to. I hope my old-timer DT cred will let me get away with my occasional indulgence.
The Dodgers could just play more day games in the summer, Dodger and Angel Stadium don't strike me as much of pitcher's parks when it's 100 degrees outside.
3-2 @ Chicago Cubs - Wrigley Field
1-0 @ Colorado - Coors Field
1-2 @ Florida - Dolphin Stadium
0-1 @ Milwaukee - County Stadium
0-2 @ Milwaukee - Miller Park
0-2 @ Minnesota - Metrodome
0-1 @ Oakland - McAfee Coliseum
0-1 @ San Francisco - Candlestick Park
1-0 @ Philadelphia - Veterans Stadium
0-1 @ Philadelphia - Citizens Bank Park
1-2 @ Pittsburgh - PNC Park
The highlight being this game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200105050.shtml
223 - Probably not; I don't know who that is.
It used to be the norm, before the Dodgers started broadcasting every home and away game that Vin would do lots of innings for radio fans only. Back in the day, the only local TV games were road games. Of those road games, the only sure TV games were games in San Francisco. TV games from other cities were unusual, but they happened. So for all home games and most road games, Vin would do innings 1-3 and 7-9 plus extras. For TV games, he would do the middle innings on radio. Sometimes he would announce the ninth inning and extras as a "simulcast," which he would underscore so radio and TV listeners would understand.
Scully on radio-only almost never happens anymore, but here's when it does: When it's a late-season game with pennant implications that a national network, Fox or ESPN, is covering. That means no local TV. During most of the season, Vin takes those days off, but not, for example, the 2004 clincher against San Francisco. It was Fox for TV, and Vin on the radio.
Vin on the radio, not worried about a TV audience, is Vin at his very best.
vr, Xei
Ethier, RF
Martin, C
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
DeWitt, 3B
Maza, SS
Penny, P
I thought all the Dodgers needed was Mark Texeira, the Almighty First Baseman.
vr, Xei
Forgive me for no reading the other posts, baby time has pretty much taken up everything.
Why is Hu not playing?
Grr, Pierre.
I don't really have the energy to get more upset than that about today's lineup.
The Bronx Banter guys warned us before the season that once you get into Torre's doghouse, there's no getting out. Seems like that's accurate.
The playoff game in 1980 was easily the most disapointing because Goltz crushed us early and we had to hang around for the rest of the game even though our hearts were bleeding out.
For some reasons the home runs by Clark, Smith, and Morgan just don't reasonate with me.
Jones: .176/.275/.324 (40 PA)
Pierre: .205/.279/.231 (44 PA)
Ethier: .225/.262/.400 (42 PA)
Kemp: .237/.310/.342 (42 PA)
What did Hu do to Torre?
I think our bigger problem is Penny...
Chin-Lung Hu is a top 100 prospect who we need to make a very important decision about sometime in the next five months.
There's no reason to start Maza instead of Hu right now.
That is absolutely correct.
I do get a little tired of Torre's "ride the hot hand" thing, that's what gives us all these schizo line-ups. Maza had two hits yesterday so suddenly he's in...
er, what's the opposite of doghouse? Treehouse? Penthouse?
vr, Xei
254 Shhhh! Or Daniel will want John Lindsay!
At this stage Hu is practically an automatic out. Even though Maza's throws can barely reach 1st base from shortstop I've grown tired of watching Hu bat. I suspect Hu will be on his was to Las Vegas shortly.
Unless you're the type who makes final judgments based on 10 at bats (Maza) or 60 at-bats (Hu), then there's no reason whatsoever to believe that Maza will provide more offense than Hu. And we already know he won't provide more defense.
vr, Xei
The cost of Steve Austin would not cover Esteban Loiaza's salary.
But I'm not adjusting for inflation.
http://tinyurl.com/5alj7a
"The Three Teams I Couldn't Care Less About"
{said in Don Adams voice}
Plate Apps
Pierre 72
Kemp 61
Jones 50
Ethier 42
Starts (including tonight)
Pierre 17 (out of 17 games)*
Kemp 15
Jones 11*
Ethier 10
*includes 1 start at DH
I barely stayed awake during the first episode.
>> Around the bases: Lucas Mays' three-run home run in the first game of the series is the Suns' only homer in the first four games of the series. ... Brian Akin (1-4) gave up Castillo's game-winning hit to take the loss, but surrendered just one other hit in his two relief innings. ... Suns relief pitchers have the three highest ERAs on the team, led by Zach Hammes (7.62), Rick Asadoorian (7.57) and Tanyon Sturtze (6.91). ... Sunday's crowd put the Suns' average at over 6,000 per game. <<
http://tinyurl.com/3oschk
Now as for playing Maza over Hu, as long as they are both here, I have no problem with that. Torre has to see that Maza can play in the majors if Maza is to be the new UT infielder and Hu's ticket has been punched for Vegas anyway. We can't have a UT infielder we are afraid to use. And the ranks of career minor leaguers are where bench players ideally come from anyway, rather than the ranks of over-the-hill PVL's like Lucille II did.
271 - My lord those guys are awful. Might be time to move James Adkins back to the bullpen, where he probably belongs anyway.
I guess I would have called the usher as my time would have been about spoilt by then anyway.
On the subject of 'conduct at the park' my organization is having a night vs. the Indians in the 'all you can eat' pavillion. How's the conduct out there? Is it better than Left Field Pavillion when the Giants are in town (continuous blue streak to outfielders, throwing food & mostly empty beer cups)?
Out Riverside Drive, out past the zoo and the back side of Griffith Park, and then up Stadium Way, about 15 miles each way. A beautiful ride once you got to the zoo.
Then we'd leave our bikes with the guys at the Union 76 station, knowing they were safe - no locks. Always bleacher seats - this was a year or so before the fights started up and they banned beer out there. We'd check in on Frances Friedman and her pals, and always keep score.
And then the ride back would start with the world's greatest downhill ride: 2 miles straight down Stadium Way!
I'm not sure parents would let their kids make that ride anymore, and truth be told, we did get mugged after the game one time, after staying too late getting autographs (on Old-Timers day, of all things!). They took our yearbooks, signed balls and cards, but they didn't hurt us, and it didn't stop us from coming back on our bikes the next Sunday game.
So one of the 100 things a Dodger fan should do is ride his or her bike to the game, assuming there's a safe place to leave your bike these days.
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