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When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
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Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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So, here they are, the Los Angeles Dodgers. C students of the postseason, baseball's nothingdictorians. Barely a .500 team ... but they can dream.
No one should be favoring the Dodgers against the Cubs in their 2008 National League Division Series, who outscored their opponents by more than a run a game. But since the Dodgers do have the starting pitching capable of shutting down an opponent and a slugger capable of rallying them with one swing, it might be worth at least seeing who's who and what's what.
And away we go ...
Catchers
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | EQA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Russell Martin | 649 | .385 | .396 | .781 | 103 | .284 |
| *Danny Ardoin | 54 | .278 | .314 | .592 | 53 | .208 |
| Gary Bennett | 23 | .261 | .381 | .642 | 64 | .218 |
| A.J. Ellis | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -100 | .000 |
Infielders
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | EQA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *James Loney | 647 | .338 | .434 | .772 | 98 | .272 |
| *Jeff Kent | 474 | .327 | .418 | .745 | 91 | .258 |
| *Blake DeWitt | 417 | .344 | .383 | .728 | 88 | .259 |
| *Angel Berroa | 252 | .304 | .310 | .614 | 60 | .222 |
| *Casey Blake | 231 | .313 | .460 | .773 | 97 | .267 |
| *Nomar Garciaparra | 181 | .326 | .466 | .792 | 102 | .273 |
| *Rafael Furcal | 164 | .439 | .573 | 1.012 | 160 | .346 |
| Mark Sweeney | 108 | .250 | .163 | .413 | 10 | .127 |
| Chin-Lung Hu | 129 | .252 | .233 | .485 | 27 | .166 |
| Luis Maza | 88 | .282 | .278 | .561 | 46 | .196 |
| Andy LaRoche | 69 | .319 | .322 | .641 | 67 | .230 |
| Pablo Ozuna | 32 | .242 | .375 | .617 | 57 | .205 |
For his part, Kent has been given to good and bad streaks that left him an average hitter at best this year. Given his shaky knee, he will give up starts at second base to surprising rookie DeWitt, who hit Death Valley at midsummer but OPSed over .900 in September.
Historians will gasp, but forever will it be written that the regular shortstop for the 2008 NL West Champions was none other than Mr. Berroa. While the Kansas City kastoff had his moments, Furcal will be an improvement upon him just by being upright. Whether Furcal can remain that way is another matter. An MVP candidate through the first month of the season, Furcal had two hits Saturday, rested Sunday and remains the biggest question mark on the roster.
In his two-plus months with the Dodgers, Blake showed solid power at third base but not that much production in the way of getting on base. At a minimum, he's someone Cubs pitchers have to be careful of.
With those seven potentially on a roster together for the first time, Sweeney might finally be pushed off the 25-man squad after surviving the year with the seventh-lowest OPS+ by a non-pitcher in Dodger history (minimum 100 plate appearances). Sixth on that list is a name the Cubs might recognize: Daryle Ward. With at least two first basemen on the bench for every game, Sweeney would cost countless amounts in excess baggage if the Dodgers tried to check him on their flight to Illinois.
The presence of Furcal already eliminated the slick-fielding Hu, who might well have been the most approriate 25th man, from the NLDS. Ozuna, who was designated for assignment August 27 but then cleared waivers (shock) and returned, could still grab the final roster spot, but with Garciaparra available as an emergency shortstop behind Berroa and Furcal, it really doesn't make sense to include Ozuna's weak bat-and-glove combo. (Maza and LaRoche are no longer with the organization.)
Outfielders
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | EQA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Matt Kemp | 653 | .340 | .459 | .799 | 104 | .280 | |
| *Andre Ethier | 594 | .375 | .510 | .885 | 126 | .301 | . |
| *Juan Pierre | 402 | .327 | .328 | .655 | 70 | .245 | |
| *Manny Ramirez | 229 | .489 | .743 | 1.232 | 213 | .406 | |
| Andruw Jones | 238 | .256 | .249 | .505 | 32 | .170 | |
| *Delwyn Young | 141 | .321 | .341 | .663 | 72 | .232 | |
| Jason Repko | 19 | .250 | .222 | .472 | 24 | .202 | |
| Terry Tiffee | 5 | .400 | .250 | .650 | 74 | .253 |
Ethier, a streak hitter throughout his first three seasons in the majors, absolutely caught fire as the season wound down, turning in a banner year. Again, I'm feeling media-conscious: Don't let the TBS announcers try to convince you he simply rode the Ramirez coattails - Ethier did plenty on his own. Even if he slumps, he's an absolute battler at the plate. It also should be mentioned that Kemp and Ethier combined for 27 outfield assists.
Was Pierre watching the 2004 World Series? His best chance to shine will be in the Dave Roberts role, which he is nicely suited for - much more than that of starting outfielder. Fortunately for the Dodgers' sake, the team finally found three outfielders it was happy to start in Pierre's place. It was never personal.
Ramirez hit. Jones did not.
Young, as noted before, is finding himself having to make a case for inclusion on the roster. His numbers frankly didn't turn out that great this year, and his defense is suspect, so it's not as if banishing him from the roster turns him into Jean Valjean. But his potential is higher than the alternatives. Repko and if he's amenable, Tiffee will cheerlead from afar.
Pitchers
| Player | IP | OBP | SLG | K/9 | GO/AO | ERA | ERA+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Derek Lowe | 211 | .285 | .352 | 6.27 | 2.48 | 3.24 | 136 |
| *Chad Billingsley | 200 2/3 | .324 | .363 | 9.01 | 1.59 | 3.14 | 141 |
| *Hiroki Kuroda | 183 1/3 | .299 | .359 | 5.69 | 1.59 | 3.73 | 119 |
| *Clayton Kershaw | 107 2/3 | .344 | .405 | 8.36 | 4.26 | 104 | |
| *Chan Ho Park | 95 1/3 | .336 | .413 | 7.46 | 1.92 | 3.40 | 130 |
| Brad Penny | 94 2/3 | .378 | .465 | 4.85 | 1.77 | 6.27 | 71 |
| Hong-Chih Kuo | 80 | .263 | .303 | 10.80 | 1.18 | 2.14 | 207 |
| *Cory Wade | 71 1/3 | .256 | .328 | 6.43 | 1.10 | 2.27 | 195 |
| *Jonathan Broxton | 69 | .298 | .297 | 11.48 | 1.24 | 3.13 | 141 |
| *Joe Beimel | 49 | .347 | .324 | 5.88 | 1.09 | 2.02 | 219 |
| *Takashi Saito | 47 | .294 | .299 | 11.49 | 1.05 | 2.49 | 178 |
| *Greg Maddux | 40 2/3 | .294 | .417 | 3.98 | 1.66 | 5.09 | 87 |
| *Scott Proctor | 38 2/3 | .355 | .478 | 10.71 | 0.73 | 6.05 | 73 |
| Eric Stults | 38 2/3 | .315 | .417 | 6.98 | 0.73 | 3.49 | 127 |
| Ramon Troncoso | 38 | .333 | .384 | 9.00 | 3.37 | 4.26 | 104 |
| Jason Johnson | 29 1/3 | .357 | .504 | 6.14 | 2.38 | 5.22 | 85 |
| Esteban Loaiza | 24 | .291 | .447 | 3.38 | 0.62 | 5.62 | 79 |
| Brian Falkenborg | 11 2/3 | .313 | .409 | 6.94 | 2.10 | 6.17 | 72 |
| James McDonald | 6 | .261 | .273 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | ---- |
| Scott Elbert | 6 | .452 | .615 | 12.00 | 1.75 | 12.00 | 37 |
| Yhency Brazoban | 3 | .438 | .538 | 9.00 | 0.60 | 6.00 | 74 |
| Tanyon Sturtze | 2 1/3 | .222 | .250 | 3.86 | 0.20 | 0.00 | ---- |
Lowe was sensational in the second half: a 2.38 ERA, including 0.59 in September. The Cubs didn't have to wait that long to struggle against him, going 4 for 23 with two walks and two double plays in seven scoreless innings against Lowe on May 28 - in a game the Dodgers lost by allowing runs in the ninth and 10th innings. The Cubs will come out ready to lumber, but if anyone were primed to follow Jose Lima as the second winning Dodger pitcher of the past 20 years, it's Lowe. As always, infield defense behind him will be critical.
And yet, the true ace of the staff this year was Billingsley, who turned 24 in July. Billinglsey struck out a batter an inning while posting the fifth-best adjusted ERA in the NL. (Game 1 Cubs starter Ryan Dempster was third at 153.) Billinglsey has exceeded his career high in innings by far, but like many other Dodgers he picked up some rest, throwing two innings in a tuneup run Saturday.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Kuroda led qualifying NL starting pitchers in FLAKE - which is a technical term but should be self-explanatory. His range of performance never let you be certain of what to expect; the potential for utter greatness or disappointment is more than present. Still, he was good more than he was bad.
Those three should carry the Dodgers through the maximum five-game series, allowing Kershaw and Maddux to grab a couple of chairs in the bullpen. Whether or not the young lefty is suited to make a pressure appearance in the middle of the inning is unclear - although it's worth noting that even with his control issues, his on-base percentage allowed was still less than that of Beimel. Meanwhile, Kershaw brings that great strikeout potential. Still, he might be the last guy chosen to appear - and that's before considerations of resting his young arm are factored in. Maddux is certainly an intriguing choice to use in relief against his original team - he certainly isn't going to walk anyone - but he still is risky enough to likely remain a reserve to the reserve.
Park has been on the Dodgers all season and a pleasant surprise at that for the most part. Had the absolutely scintillating Kuo been healthy, the Dodgers might have been forced to push either Park or Proctor off the roster, and while Proctor has looked fairly solid coming off a long (and shamefully overdue) disabled list stint, Park has really struggled the past two months. Even if the case for including promising young McDonald founders on his propensity at this stage to allow fly balls in droves, Park still shouldn't be allowed to grip a baseball in Wrigley Field.
While Kuo and Penny sit on the sidelines - one trying to work his way back for a potential NL Championship Series appearance, the other wondering about his contract status - Wade quietly continues as a middle-relief savior for the Dodgers. Something interesting to note is that Wade has been a lot luckier than Troncoso, who was left off the roster. Opponents are hitting .216 on balls in play against Wade, .350 against Troncoso, even though Troncoso gets more strikeouts and grounders. Wade has been magic all year; the Dodgers are hoping it doesn't run out, as he definitely will join Beimel, who hasn't allowed a home run in a team-record 103 games since July 21, 2007, as a regular element out of the pen.
The marquee names of the Dodger bullpen are Saito and Broxton. Like Furcal and Kent, the 38-year-old miracle from Japan has been making a late-September comeback from injury. While Dodger fans will be eager to see him back in the games, it's not as if he isn't fallible, not with three losses and four blown saves. But the goal here isn't to put Saito down - not when he's striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings and allowing an OPS below .600. The point is that Broxton does the same. If it's true that Broxton does so a little less effectively in save situations, that point has been vastly overstated. The bottom line is, if the Dodgers have a lead after seven innings, the team could hardly be in better hands, even if those hands have white knuckles.
No one else will figure in the Dodgers' postseason plans. Stults could have been filling the Maddux role but for one bad start in Colorado that submarined what had been a fine season for him. Johnson was something of the opposite - he was ineffective far more than he wasn't and has joined Penny in going home. Elbert briefly looked like he might make a stab as another lefty in reserve, but couldn't control that reborn arm of his enough to gain Torre's confidence. Maybe next year. Brazoban is trying to get his career back together, while Falkenborg, Loaiza and Sturtze are no longer in the organization – as players. Sturtze has made the unusual decision to remain as a second bullpen catcher for the Dodgers.
Summary
May 26-28, the Dodgers allowed a total of eight runs in three games to the Cubs - and were swept. For the season, the Dodgers held the Cubs to 19 runs in seven games - and lost five. Billingsley, Kuroda and Lowe started all but one of those seven. The Dodgers know their pitching can succeed against the Cubs.
But the hitting? Hard to say. The last time the Dodgers played the Cubs was June 8, nearly two months before Ramirez joined the team. In their seven games against Chicago, Pierre had the most plate appearances (and OPSed .563). Hu, Maza and Berroa combined at shortstop to go 1 for 24 with one walk. On the other hand, though Loney and DeWitt also struggled with sub-.600 OPSes, Kent, Martin, Ethier and Kemp all hit well. The point is, this is not the same Dodger offense the Cubs faced earlier this season. Replacing Pierre with Ramirez and inserting Furcal could transform Los Angeles.
Whether this is a Dodger team that will perform any better than the May-June 2008 Dodgers, or for that matter the 1989-2007 Dodgers ... there's just no way of knowing. Several hopeful Dodger teams in the past 20 years have gone ever so gently into that bad night. The Dodgers somehow have to change that.
It starts with Lowe and Ramirez. Anyone can be a hero, but those two have been going so well for so long that they are poised to make an impact that Dodger fans haven't seen in a generation of postseasons. For them to reverse their two-month-old hot streaks right here and now would bring a confounding agony to Dodger fans.
Friday: Red Sox @ Angels, 6:30pm
Saturday: Cubs @ Dodgers, 7pm
Sunday: Cubs @ Dodgers, ???pm*
*if necessary
Let's go dumb luck let's go! (clap clap).
Interesting analysis on the roster. I still have a suspicion that Torre will pick Sweeney (over DY or similar). If he does, I'll lose my trust that I've given him as a manager. It already wore thin with the benching of Ethier.
I'm not convinced about Furcal, but he'll be an upgrade over Berroa. I'm worried about his swing, though. It hasn't looked the same since he got back. Hopefully he'll be getting a lot of cage time.
The only thing I keep telling myself is, does Torre really want to show October audiences that he's using a .127 hitter? I do think the presence of Garciaparra, Kent and Furcal could be a gamechanger with Sweeney.
Good analysis of the roster. Like everyone else I have questions about Furcal and actually would have loved to seen him or Kent pinch hit for Berroa in the 9th on Sunday. I know why it didn't happen, but the Giants took yesterday's game very seriously, and would have been interested to see how Furcal reacted. Kent as well especially since both maybe coming off the bench in the series.
I think the DY decision is such a no brainer for three reasons: he is a switch hitter, as a PH which is what he would primarily be in the series, his OBP is 393 and he is hitting 292. Stats are far higher than Sweeney, and whatever his defensive shortcomings he can play multiple positions, Sweeney can't.
The Cubs scored 38 more runs in one less game. Their line was .273/.346/.443, It must also be noted that the Cubs did go into playoff management a week earlier than the Dodgers and were nursing injuries in this period.
The Dodgers had the 4th best OPS in the NL after the ASB (3 teams tied for first including the Cubs). The Dodgers line was .279/.350/.434.
Both teams continued to pitch well in the second half.
No question adding the best hitter in the NL from August 1st helps these numbers (and Ethier's numbers from that time are no slouch either).
Given how poorly the rest of the offense did in our series without Manny, we have to be worried a bit. If Manny is the only one hitting, he'll be pitched around the entire series. Obviously, a lot more has changed since then (Ethier in the full lineup, Furcal back perhaps, Dewitt swinging a much hotter bat), but I'm very curious to see how we do against this pitching. The kids are going to need to step it up, because if we can get them to their bullpen (which is poor compared to ours) early enough, I like our chances.
I'm more surprised that it took 37 HRs to lead the league.
He's gone from pitching in the playoffs, to pitching in the instructional league in front of maybe 50 people.
Also, when is the deadline for setting the 25 man playoff roster? If a player gets hurt during one of the games, can that player be replaced by someone not on the original roster?
High - 60
Low - 45
It does suck for Kuo. He's a big reason why we are here. I don't feel bad for Penny because we made it in spite of his performance not because of it.
If Saito had not come back I'd be very worried about the middle relief since Park/Proctor/Beimel would have had to pitch more then I want. Our bullpen has been our strength but without Kou I'm not sure if we can call it a strength right now. I've felt Wade was pitching with mirrors all year and it would not surprise me if those mirrors crack in the playoffs at an inopportune time.
http://tinyurl.com/4wgwg5
Perhaps more likely is that Manny's 59 postseason walks place him in 4th place, 13 free passes behind all-time leader Larry Jones.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/
Players with Exact HR Total Four Straight Years (3+ HR)
Dunn (40), 2005-2008
Ken Boyer (24), 1961-1964
Fred Lynn (23), 1984-1987
Curt Walker (6), 1925-1928
Al Evans hit 2 HR for six straight years (1945-1950).
Luke Sewell (1932-1935) and Jimmy Austin (1910-1913) hit 2 HR for four straight years.
I slapped a $20 down on the Dodgers to win it all in early September (right after AZ series #1) at 25-1.
>>The return of shortstop Rafael Furcal would go a long way in stabilizing the Dodgers' infield; Shortstop Angel Berroa is erratic and, according to one N.L. scout, is not manager Joe Torre's most trusted defender. Furcal has been back only a week after missing four-plus months because of back surgery, but he was making long, back-stretching throws from the hole in workouts over the weekend.<<
The article seemed fair 'nuf but lost some credibility with this: "The Dodgers are paying outfielders Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre a combined $17 million this season, and neither will see much, if any, action in October." Uh, Jones definitely won't see any action.
http://tinyurl.com/3gsk9t
Are Pierre and Jones giving some of their money back? Because I think the total is more like a combined $26 million.