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2008 Season

Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)

1991-2008

Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended

2009 Payroll Worksheet

Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)

Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.

More contract details here.

Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000

Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000

Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff

Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000

Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000

Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul

Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt

Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.

Working total: *$68,020,000

The 2008 Dodgers

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The Dodger Thoughts 2008 Postseason Guide
2008-09-29 00:28
by Jon Weisman

So, here they are, the Los Angeles Dodgers. C students of the postseason, baseball's nothingdictorians. Barely a .500 team ... but they can dream.

No one should be favoring the Dodgers against the Cubs in their 2008 National League Division Series, who outscored their opponents by more than a run a game. But since the Dodgers do have the starting pitching capable of shutting down an opponent and a slugger capable of rallying them with one swing, it might be worth at least seeing who's who and what's what.

And away we go ...

Catchers
Player PA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ EQA
*Russell Martin 649 .385 .396 .781 103 .284
*Danny Ardoin 54 .278 .314 .592 53 .208
Gary Bennett 23 .261 .381 .642 64 .218
A.J. Ellis 3 .000 .000 .000 -100 .000
*likely on NLDS roster
Martin slumped in the second half again, but he actually put together a pretty decent September (.424 on-base percentage) and he caught some dugout Zs once the Dodgers clinched last week. He enters the postseason as someone who can initiate or extend a rally. Ardoin replaced Bennett, the opposite of a complete player (incomplete? uncomplete? noncomplete?) months ago, and does what you ask of a backup catcher. The Cubs probably won't see Ardoin unless something goes really right or really wrong for Los Angeles. Minor leaguer Ellis made his first career start Sunday.


Infielders
Player PA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ EQA
*James Loney 647 .338 .434 .772 98 .272
*Jeff Kent 474 .327 .418 .745 91 .258
*Blake DeWitt 417 .344 .383 .728 88 .259
*Angel Berroa 252 .304 .310 .614 60 .222
*Casey Blake 231 .313 .460 .773 97 .267
*Nomar Garciaparra 181 .326 .466 .792 102 .273
*Rafael Furcal 164 .439 .573 1.012 160 .346
Mark Sweeney 108 .250 .163 .413 10 .127
Chin-Lung Hu 129 .252 .233 .485 27 .166
Luis Maza 88 .282 .278 .561 46 .196
Andy LaRoche 69 .319 .322 .641 67 .230
Pablo Ozuna 32 .242 .375 .617 57 .205
*likely on NLDS roster
Loney played in 161 games this season but because of recent inconsistency, he gave way to Garciaparra in two starts against lefties last week (both of which produced home runs). With second baseman Kent also limping back into the swing of things as another option at first base, there's a good chance Loney will be in a platoon arrangement. Still, expect Loney to get most of the at-bats at first base.

For his part, Kent has been given to good and bad streaks that left him an average hitter at best this year. Given his shaky knee, he will give up starts at second base to surprising rookie DeWitt, who hit Death Valley at midsummer but OPSed over .900 in September.

Historians will gasp, but forever will it be written that the regular shortstop for the 2008 NL West Champions was none other than Mr. Berroa. While the Kansas City kastoff had his moments, Furcal will be an improvement upon him just by being upright. Whether Furcal can remain that way is another matter. An MVP candidate through the first month of the season, Furcal had two hits Saturday, rested Sunday and remains the biggest question mark on the roster.

In his two-plus months with the Dodgers, Blake showed solid power at third base but not that much production in the way of getting on base. At a minimum, he's someone Cubs pitchers have to be careful of.

With those seven potentially on a roster together for the first time, Sweeney might finally be pushed off the 25-man squad after surviving the year with the seventh-lowest OPS+ by a non-pitcher in Dodger history (minimum 100 plate appearances). Sixth on that list is a name the Cubs might recognize: Daryle Ward. With at least two first basemen on the bench for every game, Sweeney would cost countless amounts in excess baggage if the Dodgers tried to check him on their flight to Illinois.

The presence of Furcal already eliminated the slick-fielding Hu, who might well have been the most approriate 25th man, from the NLDS. Ozuna, who was designated for assignment August 27 but then cleared waivers (shock) and returned, could still grab the final roster spot, but with Garciaparra available as an emergency shortstop behind Berroa and Furcal, it really doesn't make sense to include Ozuna's weak bat-and-glove combo. (Maza and LaRoche are no longer with the organization.)


Outfielders
Player PA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ EQA
*Matt Kemp 653 .340 .459 .799 104 .280
*Andre Ethier 594 .375 .510 .885 126 .301 .
*Juan Pierre 402 .327 .328 .655 70 .245
*Manny Ramirez 229 .489 .743 1.232 213 .406
Andruw Jones 238 .256 .249 .505 32 .170
*Delwyn Young 141 .321 .341 .663 72 .232
Jason Repko 19 .250 .222 .472 24 .202
Terry Tiffee 5 .400 .250 .650 74 .253
*likely on NLDS roster
Kemp set a Dodger season record for strikeouts, lost a chunk of points off his batting average and can look lost at the plate sometimes. And then you look again, and he's just lashing and dashing. He has grown into his center field position nicely, looking positively graceful at times, and in doing so makes his .280 EQA more than tolerable. The media will be looking to pick on him - hopefully he can play a gaffe-free series.

Ethier, a streak hitter throughout his first three seasons in the majors, absolutely caught fire as the season wound down, turning in a banner year. Again, I'm feeling media-conscious: Don't let the TBS announcers try to convince you he simply rode the Ramirez coattails - Ethier did plenty on his own. Even if he slumps, he's an absolute battler at the plate. It also should be mentioned that Kemp and Ethier combined for 27 outfield assists.

Was Pierre watching the 2004 World Series? His best chance to shine will be in the Dave Roberts role, which he is nicely suited for - much more than that of starting outfielder. Fortunately for the Dodgers' sake, the team finally found three outfielders it was happy to start in Pierre's place. It was never personal.

Ramirez hit. Jones did not.

Young, as noted before, is finding himself having to make a case for inclusion on the roster. His numbers frankly didn't turn out that great this year, and his defense is suspect, so it's not as if banishing him from the roster turns him into Jean Valjean. But his potential is higher than the alternatives. Repko and if he's amenable, Tiffee will cheerlead from afar.


Pitchers
Player IP OBP SLG K/9 GO/AO ERA ERA+
*Derek Lowe 211 .285 .352 6.27 2.48 3.24 136
*Chad Billingsley 200 2/3 .324 .363 9.01 1.59 3.14 141
*Hiroki Kuroda 183 1/3 .299 .359 5.69 1.59 3.73 119
*Clayton Kershaw 107 2/3 .344 .405 8.36   4.26 104
*Chan Ho Park 95 1/3 .336 .413 7.46 1.92 3.40 130
Brad Penny 94 2/3 .378 .465 4.85 1.77 6.27 71
Hong-Chih Kuo 80 .263 .303 10.80 1.18 2.14 207
*Cory Wade 71 1/3 .256 .328 6.43 1.10 2.27 195
*Jonathan Broxton 69 .298 .297 11.48 1.24 3.13 141
*Joe Beimel 49 .347 .324 5.88 1.09 2.02 219
*Takashi Saito 47 .294 .299 11.49 1.05 2.49 178
*Greg Maddux 40 2/3 .294 .417 3.98 1.66 5.09 87
*Scott Proctor 38 2/3 .355 .478 10.71 0.73 6.05 73
Eric Stults 38 2/3 .315 .417 6.98 0.73 3.49 127
Ramon Troncoso 38 .333 .384 9.00 3.37 4.26 104
Jason Johnson 29 1/3 .357 .504 6.14 2.38 5.22 85
Esteban Loaiza 24 .291 .447 3.38 0.62 5.62 79
Brian Falkenborg 11 2/3 .313 .409 6.94 2.10 6.17 72
James McDonald 6 .261 .273 3.00 0.33 0.00 ----
Scott Elbert 6 .452 .615 12.00 1.75 12.00 37
Yhency Brazoban 3 .438 .538 9.00 0.60 6.00 74
Tanyon Sturtze 2 1/3 .222 .250 3.86 0.20 0.00 ----
*likely on NLDS roster

Lowe was sensational in the second half: a 2.38 ERA, including 0.59 in September. The Cubs didn't have to wait that long to struggle against him, going 4 for 23 with two walks and two double plays in seven scoreless innings against Lowe on May 28 - in a game the Dodgers lost by allowing runs in the ninth and 10th innings. The Cubs will come out ready to lumber, but if anyone were primed to follow Jose Lima as the second winning Dodger pitcher of the past 20 years, it's Lowe. As always, infield defense behind him will be critical.

And yet, the true ace of the staff this year was Billingsley, who turned 24 in July. Billinglsey struck out a batter an inning while posting the fifth-best adjusted ERA in the NL. (Game 1 Cubs starter Ryan Dempster was third at 153.) Billinglsey has exceeded his career high in innings by far, but like many other Dodgers he picked up some rest, throwing two innings in a tuneup run Saturday.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Kuroda led qualifying NL starting pitchers in FLAKE - which is a technical term but should be self-explanatory. His range of performance never let you be certain of what to expect; the potential for utter greatness or disappointment is more than present. Still, he was good more than he was bad.

Those three should carry the Dodgers through the maximum five-game series, allowing Kershaw and Maddux to grab a couple of chairs in the bullpen. Whether or not the young lefty is suited to make a pressure appearance in the middle of the inning is unclear - although it's worth noting that even with his control issues, his on-base percentage allowed was still less than that of Beimel. Meanwhile, Kershaw brings that great strikeout potential. Still, he might be the last guy chosen to appear - and that's before considerations of resting his young arm are factored in. Maddux is certainly an intriguing choice to use in relief against his original team - he certainly isn't going to walk anyone - but he still is risky enough to likely remain a reserve to the reserve.

Park has been on the Dodgers all season and a pleasant surprise at that for the most part. Had the absolutely scintillating Kuo been healthy, the Dodgers might have been forced to push either Park or Proctor off the roster, and while Proctor has looked fairly solid coming off a long (and shamefully overdue) disabled list stint, Park has really struggled the past two months. Even if the case for including promising young McDonald founders on his propensity at this stage to allow fly balls in droves, Park still shouldn't be allowed to grip a baseball in Wrigley Field.

While Kuo and Penny sit on the sidelines - one trying to work his way back for a potential NL Championship Series appearance, the other wondering about his contract status - Wade quietly continues as a middle-relief savior for the Dodgers. Something interesting to note is that Wade has been a lot luckier than Troncoso, who was left off the roster. Opponents are hitting .216 on balls in play against Wade, .350 against Troncoso, even though Troncoso gets more strikeouts and grounders. Wade has been magic all year; the Dodgers are hoping it doesn't run out, as he definitely will join Beimel, who hasn't allowed a home run in a team-record 103 games since July 21, 2007, as a regular element out of the pen.

The marquee names of the Dodger bullpen are Saito and Broxton. Like Furcal and Kent, the 38-year-old miracle from Japan has been making a late-September comeback from injury. While Dodger fans will be eager to see him back in the games, it's not as if he isn't fallible, not with three losses and four blown saves. But the goal here isn't to put Saito down - not when he's striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings and allowing an OPS below .600. The point is that Broxton does the same. If it's true that Broxton does so a little less effectively in save situations, that point has been vastly overstated. The bottom line is, if the Dodgers have a lead after seven innings, the team could hardly be in better hands, even if those hands have white knuckles.

No one else will figure in the Dodgers' postseason plans. Stults could have been filling the Maddux role but for one bad start in Colorado that submarined what had been a fine season for him. Johnson was something of the opposite - he was ineffective far more than he wasn't and has joined Penny in going home. Elbert briefly looked like he might make a stab as another lefty in reserve, but couldn't control that reborn arm of his enough to gain Torre's confidence. Maybe next year. Brazoban is trying to get his career back together, while Falkenborg, Loaiza and Sturtze are no longer in the organization – as players. Sturtze has made the unusual decision to remain as a second bullpen catcher for the Dodgers.

Summary
May 26-28, the Dodgers allowed a total of eight runs in three games to the Cubs - and were swept. For the season, the Dodgers held the Cubs to 19 runs in seven games - and lost five. Billingsley, Kuroda and Lowe started all but one of those seven. The Dodgers know their pitching can succeed against the Cubs.

But the hitting? Hard to say. The last time the Dodgers played the Cubs was June 8, nearly two months before Ramirez joined the team. In their seven games against Chicago, Pierre had the most plate appearances (and OPSed .563). Hu, Maza and Berroa combined at shortstop to go 1 for 24 with one walk. On the other hand, though Loney and DeWitt also struggled with sub-.600 OPSes, Kent, Martin, Ethier and Kemp all hit well. The point is, this is not the same Dodger offense the Cubs faced earlier this season. Replacing Pierre with Ramirez and inserting Furcal could transform Los Angeles.

Whether this is a Dodger team that will perform any better than the May-June 2008 Dodgers, or for that matter the 1989-2007 Dodgers ... there's just no way of knowing. Several hopeful Dodger teams in the past 20 years have gone ever so gently into that bad night. The Dodgers somehow have to change that.

It starts with Lowe and Ramirez. Anyone can be a hero, but those two have been going so well for so long that they are poised to make an impact that Dodger fans haven't seen in a generation of postseasons. For them to reverse their two-month-old hot streaks right here and now would bring a confounding agony to Dodger fans.

Comments (533)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-09-29 00:44:52
1.   Eric Stephen
It's going to be a busy baseball weekend in SoCal!

Friday: Red Sox @ Angels, 6:30pm
Saturday: Cubs @ Dodgers, 7pm
Sunday: Cubs @ Dodgers, ???pm*

*if necessary

2008-09-29 00:45:46
2.   Greg Brock
I have to believe that, eventually, the Dodgers will benefit from this crapshoot thingy everybody talks about.

Let's go dumb luck let's go! (clap clap).

2008-09-29 01:03:44
3.   DBrim
I, for one, am annoyed that the Angles have home field over the Red Sox. No flyover over my apartment this year.

Interesting analysis on the roster. I still have a suspicion that Torre will pick Sweeney (over DY or similar). If he does, I'll lose my trust that I've given him as a manager. It already wore thin with the benching of Ethier.

I'm not convinced about Furcal, but he'll be an upgrade over Berroa. I'm worried about his swing, though. It hasn't looked the same since he got back. Hopefully he'll be getting a lot of cage time.

2008-09-29 01:08:23
4.   Jon Weisman
3 - Yeah, even though Young has been twice as good as Sweeney, it really might not be enough to make a difference.

The only thing I keep telling myself is, does Torre really want to show October audiences that he's using a .127 hitter? I do think the presence of Garciaparra, Kent and Furcal could be a gamechanger with Sweeney.

2008-09-29 02:29:40
5.   DBrim
4 - Let me be clear on my feelings on DY, though. The man can hit, but only if he's used consistently. Pinch hitting can really bring down somebody's numbers. It's to the point where I'd feel better if he was elsewhere and starting (it has been great to see Cody Ross starting and doing so well in Florida, for example).
2008-09-29 02:38:24
6.   Louis in SF
3

Good analysis of the roster. Like everyone else I have questions about Furcal and actually would have loved to seen him or Kent pinch hit for Berroa in the 9th on Sunday. I know why it didn't happen, but the Giants took yesterday's game very seriously, and would have been interested to see how Furcal reacted. Kent as well especially since both maybe coming off the bench in the series.

I think the DY decision is such a no brainer for three reasons: he is a switch hitter, as a PH which is what he would primarily be in the series, his OBP is 393 and he is hitting 292. Stats are far higher than Sweeney, and whatever his defensive shortcomings he can play multiple positions, Sweeney can't.

2008-09-29 03:00:29
7.   bhsportsguy
When you look at the numbers after the All-Star Break, the offensive numbers are much closer.

The Cubs scored 38 more runs in one less game. Their line was .273/.346/.443, It must also be noted that the Cubs did go into playoff management a week earlier than the Dodgers and were nursing injuries in this period.

The Dodgers had the 4th best OPS in the NL after the ASB (3 teams tied for first including the Cubs). The Dodgers line was .279/.350/.434.

Both teams continued to pitch well in the second half.

No question adding the best hitter in the NL from August 1st helps these numbers (and Ethier's numbers from that time are no slouch either).

2008-09-29 04:52:34
8.   das411
Woah woah woah, after all that, the AL leader in home runs this season ended up being...Miguel Cabrera???
2008-09-29 06:01:23
9.   DBrim
Additional thoughts on our chances:

Given how poorly the rest of the offense did in our series without Manny, we have to be worried a bit. If Manny is the only one hitting, he'll be pitched around the entire series. Obviously, a lot more has changed since then (Ethier in the full lineup, Furcal back perhaps, Dewitt swinging a much hotter bat), but I'm very curious to see how we do against this pitching. The kids are going to need to step it up, because if we can get them to their bullpen (which is poor compared to ours) early enough, I like our chances.

2008-09-29 06:35:36
10.   Dodger Dawg
The Cubs are a good team, the Dodgers have been playing good as of late, it can go either way. The one thing about this series is that if the Ds manage to win it, and they might, they're in a really good position to go to the World Series. Beating the Cubs in the opening round could give them the confidence to go all the way.
2008-09-29 07:41:38
11.   Raf
8 Only because Alex Rodriguez was hurt, and Manny Ramirez was traded.

I'm more surprised that it took 37 HRs to lead the league.

2008-09-29 08:14:24
12.   ToyCannon
Injuries are part of the game and I doubt if Manny hit's 37 if he's stays in Boston. Miggy is a well deserved home run champion and even if things didn't break the Tiger way this season they stole Miggy last winter. But baseball is a strange game, the Marlins even with the lousy trade will probably see the postseason before the Tigers. Their future rotation is making the NL East queasy.
2008-09-29 08:23:15
13.   JoeyP
Must feel bad for Kuo.

He's gone from pitching in the playoffs, to pitching in the instructional league in front of maybe 50 people.

Also, when is the deadline for setting the 25 man playoff roster? If a player gets hurt during one of the games, can that player be replaced by someone not on the original roster?

2008-09-29 08:26:21
14.   JoeyP
Wed/Thursday will both be cold games.
High - 60
Low - 45
2008-09-29 08:39:47
15.   bhsportsguy
I saw a note where Philadelphia's deadline to set their post-season roster (for the first round) is 10:00 a.m. EDT, Wednesday just prior to the first game of their NLDS.
2008-09-29 08:41:31
16.   bhsportsguy
13 I do not think you can replace an injured player during a series, you have to wait until the next round, if you get there.
2008-09-29 08:46:29
17.   FirstMohican
Also, Jason Marquis and Dempster are the #3 and #4 least "FLAKEY" qualifying starters. Lilly is at #17 and Zambrano is 79th, juuuust a little less FLAKEY than Kuroda.
2008-09-29 08:48:30
18.   ToyCannon
13
It does suck for Kuo. He's a big reason why we are here. I don't feel bad for Penny because we made it in spite of his performance not because of it.

If Saito had not come back I'd be very worried about the middle relief since Park/Proctor/Beimel would have had to pitch more then I want. Our bullpen has been our strength but without Kou I'm not sure if we can call it a strength right now. I've felt Wade was pitching with mirrors all year and it would not surprise me if those mirrors crack in the playoffs at an inopportune time.

2008-09-29 08:49:19
19.   Kevin Lewis
Have there been any articles on the Penny situation?
2008-09-29 08:49:48
20.   underdog
16 Except at catcher, I believe. (Ellis will be emergency catch if something happens to one of the others.)
2008-09-29 08:50:25
21.   KingKopitar
So the Dodgers are relying on a 35 year-old starter, a 36 year-old slugger, and a 38 year-old closer? I can't decide if that's good or bad.
2008-09-29 08:57:05
22.   underdog
This seems like a pretty fair breakdown of the matchup, from the Chicago Tribune:

http://tinyurl.com/4wgwg5

2008-09-29 09:08:01
23.   Eric Stephen
Manny is 16 RBI behind Bernie Williams for the all-time postseason lead. Manny had 16 RBI last postseason. You do the math.

Perhaps more likely is that Manny's 59 postseason walks place him in 4th place, 13 free passes behind all-time leader Larry Jones.

2008-09-29 09:13:01
24.   regfairfield
8 Amazing, Miguel Cabrera ended up having a Miguel Cabrera year (minus some intentional walks and BABIP) after the horrible start he got off to.
2008-09-29 09:15:04
25.   Eric Stephen
It would have been cool if Carlos Quentin led the AL in HR despite missing a month.
2008-09-29 09:24:44
26.   MollyKnight
Vegas has the Dodgers at 8-1 to win the world series. The Angels are favored at 11/4. The Rays are at 4-1, but before the season started they were at 150-1.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

2008-09-29 09:24:49
27.   Eric Stephen
For those of us interested in such things (basically me and overkill94), Adam Dunn did end up with exactly 40 HR for the fourth year in a row.

Players with Exact HR Total Four Straight Years (3+ HR)
Dunn (40), 2005-2008
Ken Boyer (24), 1961-1964
Fred Lynn (23), 1984-1987
Curt Walker (6), 1925-1928

Al Evans hit 2 HR for six straight years (1945-1950).

Luke Sewell (1932-1935) and Jimmy Austin (1910-1913) hit 2 HR for four straight years.

2008-09-29 09:26:17
28.   Eric Stephen
26
I slapped a $20 down on the Dodgers to win it all in early September (right after AZ series #1) at 25-1.
2008-09-29 09:29:26
29.   dzzrtRatt
I wonder where the LA Times' loyalties will be?
2008-09-29 09:35:27
30.   unlazy4sports
28 I got 26-1 after the victory over Brandon Webb, the first time, so a day before you placed your bet.
2008-09-29 09:39:08
31.   underdog
Sporting News breakdown of the NLDS included this in the bit on each team's defense:

>>The return of shortstop Rafael Furcal would go a long way in stabilizing the Dodgers' infield; Shortstop Angel Berroa is erratic and, according to one N.L. scout, is not manager Joe Torre's most trusted defender. Furcal has been back only a week after missing four-plus months because of back surgery, but he was making long, back-stretching throws from the hole in workouts over the weekend.<<

The article seemed fair 'nuf but lost some credibility with this: "The Dodgers are paying outfielders Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre a combined $17 million this season, and neither will see much, if any, action in October." Uh, Jones definitely won't see any action.

http://tinyurl.com/3gsk9t

2008-09-29 09:42:42
32.   Jon Weisman
20 - I've never heard of a postseason exception for adding a catcher mid-series.
2008-09-29 09:45:22
33.   dzzrtRatt
31 A combined $17 million?

Are Pierre and Jones giving some of their money back? Because I think the total is more like a combined $26 million.