LAT'd from the Last Thread (sort of)

A little Giants Playoff Baseball History for our neighbors up north:

57 years ago today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrI7dVj90zs

Yesterday: http://tinyurl.com/4u6fw2

Jon, what a week this has been. We didn't hear that "Go Cubs Go" song all week. But I'm hoping, with enough luck, we'll get to hear "I Love LA" during the weekend. I'm headed to Game 3 with my pop, and I can't wait!

I feel like I'm in The Matrix.

I think we should have saved Wade for a tighter spot... The 7th/8th inning last night would have been a good spot for McDonald to go, in my opinion.

LAT'd

Updated BP post-season odds

LDS- 86.2%
LCS- 45.1%
WS- 18.1%

We have the best odds off making the world series.

2
I feel like I'm in The Matrix

You think that's air you're breathing, hmmm?

no good thing ever dies

Everything dies baby, that's a fact
But baby everything that dies, someday comes back
Put your makeup on, fix your hair up pretty
And meet me tonight in Atlantic City (...to bet on the Dodgers)

hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies

The Shawshank Speech! My friends and I use this at the poker table or in Vegas, whenever someone has just gone busto. I guess the Cubbies need some Zihuatenejo right now.

7
I'd like to think the last thing that went through his head, other than that Manny Ramirez line drive, was realizing that the Dodgers got the best of him.

3 I would disagree. The playoffs aren't about getting guys work. You play no more than 2 days in a row, so if the starters are doing the job a team only needs a few relievers to pitch most, if not all of the innings. We were up big when Wade came in the game, but there's no need to save anyone or worry about overwork. You win the game, even if it means never using the back of the bullpen.
I would be fine if McDonald didn't pitch at all in the post-season. If Wade, Broxton, Saito and Beimel are getting all the use, that's a GOOD thing for the Dodgers.

2. You didn't hear that song all week? I've got it stuck in my head. I think today is the first day I haven't heard it at least 3 times before lunch.

I'm keeping my giddiness inside at work until the Dodgers win their 3rd game. I'm just telling them all that all I really wanted out of the post-season was two wins, and I got what I wanted.

LATed again!

The gist was just that the only players in last nights starting nine the D's paid over one million were Furcal and Blake. Amazing!

Not to familar with how the revune works, but the deeper we go in the playoffs how much of that ticket/concession/merchindise revenue does McCourt get to keep? My old man paid 5 grand total for all the post season tickets in Loge level.

I guess my basic question is, the more home games we play does that improve our chances to spend more money this off-season?

11
The Dodgers aren't paying Blake a dime. Even cheaper!

Manny?

12 The average playoff appearance is worth 25 million, so you can make adjustments from there.

Same as 14 . Sox are paying Manny, aren't they?

12
McCourt will make more money the longer the Dodgers last, and the longer the series' are played.

Here's how the players' postseason pool is determined (for playoff shares):

1) 60% of the gate for WS games 1-4
2) 60% of the gate for each LCS games 1-4
3) 60% of the gate for each LDS games 1-3

So McCourt keeps 40% of the gate tomorrow, but 100% of the gate Sunday. We'll all be keeping an eye out for Kim Basinger on Saturday. :)

Just to expand on Jon's point about the Dodgers being a better team than their record indicates - they could have easily had 10 additional wins this year.

I haven't looked it up but I believe Lowe lost about 8 games by 1 run while keeping the opponent to 3 or fewer runs. And, Kuroda had some of the same luck. Does anyone have the stats on losses while giving up 3 or fewer runs?

Also, they could have added two more wins the last week of the season if they neeeded to.

The Dodgers face much more consistent pitching on a regular basis in the NL West and they also play a tougher AL schedule than most other NL teams (Angels for 6 games every year).

The only thing the Dodgers are paying Manny is the $1 million relocation bonus he got for being traded.

1 - Today is one of the bleakest days in Dodgers history - Not only in 1951, but correct me if I'm wrong, we lost the playoff against the Giants here in 1962 as well, then Joe Morgan off Terry Forster in 1982 then got eliminated in SF again on 10/3 by Will Clark's Giants in 1991 that brought the Braves the first of their 14 consecutive division titles. Fortunately, we don't have to play this year on October 3.
We do play on October 4, the 53rd anniversary of the Dodgers first championship in Brooklyn in Yankee Stadium in 1955. It also happens to be my wedding anniversary day. We are both
Dodger fans and are celebrating 22 years of blissful marriage. I will be in Vegas this weekend by my spirit will still be with you the Dodgers! I also have tickets to the first home game of the LCS which according to the playoff schedule will be a week from Sunday if it is the Phillies. The guys are playing loose and great but let's not count our chickens before they hatch. We still have to win one more!! I will love them to complete the sweep on my anniversary.

Go Blue!!

Fukudome is probably pretty bummed he won't be able to redeem himself against his fellow countryman.

The Onion. Always good.
http://tinyurl.com/4owxk9

Rain for tomorrow's game?

Teams win games, but organizations win seasons.
I like it. Great response to all of the media and fans who are disrespecting the Dodgers right now.

Apologies last night Eric, I may have been guilty of slightly bending rule #11 (I have a feeling more than one of us on DT were). I watched the last 2 innings and postgame interviews again this morning and Tom V actually did do a pretty decent and unbiased job. It was the whole "Dodgers vs the world" mentality of last night that got me fired up :)

Boy wasn't it fun though?

23
The rain is supposed to be light and mostly in the afternoon.

Besides there's a UCLA football game Saturday and it's only rained on a UCLA football game once since the Bruins moved to the Rose Bowl.

That was last year. And it didn't rain very much either.

However, USC gets rain on its games a little more frequently. I attribute this to:
1) chance
2) USC always playing a home game every other year in the last week of November.

Per Eric's short sample on Lowe on 3 days rest, he also has a few playoff appearances on two day's rest I believe, and is 2-1 if my memory/a quick gamelog check serves right (loss to the Yankees in 03, Wins against Oakland in 03 and NYY in 04)

*As he grabbed his suitcase and headed for the clubhouse door following the Dodgers' 10-3 pasting of the Cubs on Thursday night, Los Angeles center fielder Matt Kemp had a few words for the Wrigley Field clubhouse attendant.

"See you next year," Kemp said.

The clubhouse guy, bending over to pick up a roll of tape, clearly heard Kemp but in a tongue-in-cheek sort of way asked, "Whaaaat?"

Kemp didn't hesitate hammering his point home. "Don't start that. You heard me. We'll see you next year."*

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3623370

Like the confidence I guess.

17
Following up, the players from the WS winning team get 36% of the players' pool. Last year the Red Sox got $18,885,380.

Which means the entire players' pool was $52,459,390.

Since the players get 60% of the gate from the games listed above, those 24 games produced a total gate of $87,432,316, about $3.6m per game (there are escalations of course in each round).

That's just the gate revenue, which doesn't factor in parking, concessions, etc (but also doesn't factor in the costs), but it gives us an idea of how much each game is worth going forward.

23 No thanks.

As he grabbed his suitcase and headed for the clubhouse door following the Dodgers' 10-3 pasting of the Cubs on Thursday night, Los Angeles center fielder Matt Kemp had a few words for the Wrigley Field clubhouse attendant.

"See you next year," Kemp said.

The clubhouse guy, bending over to pick up a roll of tape, clearly heard Kemp but in a tongue-in-cheek sort of way asked, "Whaaaat?"

Kemp didn't hesitate hammering his point home. "Don't start that. You heard me. We'll see you next year."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3623370

Like the confidence I guess.

29. So there is no team split? Home team takes all?

Confidence is sexy.

32
As far as I know, there is no split. In each round, the non players pool games are set up such that the home field advantage team would get one more game in the last two rounds (game 5-7), which seems right, but in the first round the Dodgers for instance would make more money in a 4-game set despite having the same amount of home games because of a more lucrative game 4 (don't have to split with the players).

0 Hope is also the thing with feathers, but don't tell fans of The Big Unit that.

The rain it raineth every day.

17 By the way, those escalations you mention must be huge. A good Field Box seat for tomorrow's game is $90. The same seat for the WS is $250. So the real money definitely comes later. But I have to believe some of that goes to the League, no?

Following the lead of the TV network, there are two lead stories on ESPN.com about the Dodgers-Cub series and of course both of them are all about the failures of the Cubs and their poor play this series. They have played poor, no doubt, but the Dodgers have also played, pitched and executed quite well, thank you. Ah well, why bother, why care.

Focus on that one game, boys, just Saturday, take care of business.

So that wasn't Penny wearing the watermelon on his head last night? Fooled me.

Is it going to rain during the game tomorrow? Weather.com predicts a 30% chance of rain from 7-9 pm.

34 Here it is... just what you said but there is a team split...
"In the best-of-five divisional series, 60 percent of the ticket revenue from the first three games goes to the players from both teams, who decide how to divide it among themselves and some other team employees. Another 1.6 percent is collected for the umpires. That leaves 38.4 percent of the gate revenue to be split evenly between the teams."..."The commissioner's office also gets a 15 percent cut of ticket sales from the World Series."
http://tinyurl.com/3kh629
Apparently the team actually takes in very little. I think the bigger windfall is probably increased fan interest in the following year.

37
But I have to believe some of that goes to the League, no?

You're probably right. I'm just not sure what percentage. It can't be that big, since I doubt there is much overhead for running the league.

Accuweather says the rain should stop before 7.

It would take a lot of rain to postpone or delay the game.

The rain that is supposed to come Saturday is not of the gully-washer variety.

41
Thanks for that link!

But remember if the series go longer, the clubs split 98.4% of the cost rather than 38.4%, so it still could be quite a windfall for the clubs.

40 If anyone here can accurately predict that, I want you with me the next time I go to Vegas.

It was the coming out party ThunderThighz and I guess the VP debate was too riveting for anyone in the country to notice.

38 while I do agree most of the focus has been on the failures of the Cubs, Gwynn did say that while the Cubs are not playing well, the Dodgers are playing well and executing. I'd rather everyone keep on underestimating us. Nobody ever gave the 88 team a chance either. You know this team sure has a whole lot in common with that team.

Being there last night at Wrigley was amazing. Completely surreal. The angst/bitterness of Cub fans blew me away. Great performance by Bills. Worth every penny.

I probably saw 15 other Dodger fans, all night.

46 Almost anything on basic cable is going to have less viewers, they could put reruns of "Friends" on against it and the baseball playoffs would probably lose.

According to the article, in 2006 the Cardinals and TIgers made only about $6.8 Million from the entire Playoffs. Before expenses. Enough to pay for Juan Pierre's salary through about mid-August!

BTW, put a good thought in for Molly this AM, see her blog for more information. (look at the sidebar).

50 What is strange about this was reading Arte Moreno's comments about how it appears to me that he is relying on playoff revenue to help with possibly increasing his payroll.

7.

'Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.'

Thats what I may tell my Cub fan friends right now..

47 Other than one starting pitcher, I don't think that team had a single player that compares to this team.

47 I agree. I was just thinking of ESPN specifically, too. I defended TBS' commentators here last night. Both Gwynn and Darling gave the Dodgers their due quite a few times. Flying under the radar is fine by me right now.

54 And I agree with that, too. The 88 team was magic, but it rode Orel's arm, Kirk's legend and grit. and a few other key role players, but the line-up was generally amazingly weak compared to this year's model. But either way, it's okay if they have very little pressure on them.

52 It is strange. But if he can pull say $7M extra out of this year and increase sales and maybe even prices next year, he could probably justify spending another $15M or so which could be the difference in signing a Teixiera or K-Rod. Remember, the real economics of Baseball ownership is- try not to lose too much money while the value of your asset goes through the roof. That's the secret they never talk about.

What a fantastic couple of days. Some random thoughts:
- Why would Penny leave the team at all? Wouldn't he want to be a part of this? What the heck is he thinking?
- Every throw Casey Blake makes to first base is darn near perfect.
- The reason Broxton scares so many of us is because he falls behind hitters a lot, and throws a lot of pitches. We have been spoiled by watching Gagne and Saito get hitters out very quickly for several years.

I think you have to look at the national media's perspective on covering the Dodgers-Cubs series.

You had a lot of media members from all over the country coming to Chicago to cover the team with the best record in the NL start what was supposed to be a run at ending of stretch of incredible postseason futility.

And it hasn't gone well. That is a story.

From the perspective of a Dodgers fan, you would think your team has a record run of futility. But it pales in comparison to the Cubs. And the Cubs have the old park, the ivy, the weird fans, etc.

If the Dodgers win the series and move on, the Phillies or Brewers will feel slighted in the NLCS coverage. Because those two teams just don't have the same panache as the Dodgers have with Manny Ramirez and Joe Torre.

What was a bigger story in last year's Super Bowl? Was it that the Giants won or that the Patriots lost?

50 years ago today - Dodgers close to trading for Wally Moon:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/2008/10/dodgers-trade-f.html

58 I'll make one also, Blake DeWitt is tearing the cover off the ball.

Meanwhile, the NLDS turned because of the Game 1 grand slam by James Loney, exactly the kind of hitter the Cubs need. Loney and Andre Ethier give balance to the Los Angeles lineup and are adept enough at hitting left-hander's that Torre doesn't bother hitting for them late in games.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/10/03/fivecuts.LDS/index.html?eref=T1

The Dodgers have played nine games and thrown 79 1/3 innings against the Cubs this year, and have yet to use a left-hander to throw even a single pitch against them. What does that mean? The Cubs don't have a left-handed hitter good enough to merit the opposing manager even trying to gain the platoon advantage. - Tom Verducci.

Pitches Per Inning, 2006-2008
Broxton 16.61
Saito 16.33

The 1988 Dodgers had a team ERA of 2.96 and an ERA+ of 113. Three of the regular starting pitchers had ERAs below 3.00 (Hershiser, Belcher, and Leary). The top four relievers: Howell, Pena, Orosco, and Holton had ERAs of 2.08, 1.91, 2.72, and 1.70 respectively.

Only the Mets had a better ERA and it was 2.91 and an ERA+ of 112.

The 1988 Dodgers were more than just Hershiser and Gibson as the World Series showed.

54 I probably shouldn't have said team, but instead the circumstances. Although the OH role is played by Bills and the Gibson role is played by MR (big veteran bat)

64 Thanks, Eric. I was curious and just going by impression. What about Gagne? Also, it could be that when JB is "on" he throws very few, but when he is struggling he throws lots more. That's the impression I have - don't know how to quantify that statistically.

Anthony Stover to UCLA per Dohn.

Only trainwreck may know what this means.

65 Canned heat, baby.

66
Juan Pierre is Mickey Hatcher
Andruw Jones would be Mike Davis if he were still on the roster
James McDonald is Ramon Martinez
Greg Maddux is John Tudor

Jon, I'm positive I saw Beimel warming up. I can't recall who it was next to though, but he was there. It was Beimel and another guy until they were sat down for Big Jon to warm up.

Apparently some people are offended by Ron Darling's views on Manny.

http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/10/on-ron-darlings-mockery-comment-about.html

18 - Actually, that's not really my point. Every team has close games they could have won if they had scored a bit more.

My point is more that even accepting losses as losses, the organization was stronger than it appeared. The team had more potential than it was accessing.

67
Gagne 2002-2004 was a relatively miniscule 14.92 pitches/inning.

Gary Radnich on KNBR here in SF is taking a lot of grief this morning from Giants fans after saying he's rooting for the Dodgers. You go, Gary!

Email him your thanks for his bravery to:
gary@knbr.com

72
I thought at the time that Darling was just saying that hitting was too easy for Manny Ramirez.

Ron Darling is not exactly an inflammatory announcer.

72

Talk about twisting words around. Darling's quip sounded innocuous to me. Certainly at the time he said it. Jim Rome says things like that all the time. He's just conveying Manny's ability to dominate.

um, Jim Rome wasn't the best example

64

74

Wouldn't it be better to compare pitches per batter faced, since I am fairly sure that way Broxton has a higher WHIP than either Saito or Gagne.

76 - It's hard to have any emotion at all with Dick Stockton and Ron Darling announcing. I didn't see anything wrong with his comments, though.

78
If Broxton faced more hitters than Saito, his pitches per batter would be lower than Saito's

Pitches Per Batter
Gagne 2002-04: 3.90
Broxton 2006-08: 4.02
Saito 2006-08: 4.22

I forget who I was listening to last night or this morning but it was if no one outside of Dodger Thoughts reads Baseball America or watched this team for the last 3 years.

Actually it was Tommy John who was at Dodger Stadium last week when the Dodgers honored the man, Dr. Frank Jobe for whom the surgery should be named. (at least for TJ, he is not in Lou Gehrig's situation).

Anyway, Tommy John said that he came to Dodger Stadium and had no clue who these guys (Dodgers) were and a friend of his texted him (I find it funny when guys like Torre and Tommy John say they text people) and said that the Dodgers have a lot of good young talent.

Tommy then asked the hosts about some 20 year old lefty.

68

Stupid!

Not getting ahead of myself, but jeez the Phillies are good;

Ruiz 61 OPS+
Howard 123 OPS+/ +1 on defense
Utley 133 OPS+/ +50 on defense
Rollins 101 OPS+/ +23 on defense
Feliz 80 OPS+/ +7 on defense
Werth 119 OPS+/ +2 on defense
Victorino 105 OPS+/ +10 on defense
Burrell 123 OPS+/ -20 on defense

Hamels 3.09 ERA, 145 ERA+, FIP 3.70
Moyer 3.71 ERA, 120 ERA+, FIP 4.33
Myers 4.55 ERA, 98 ERA+, FIP 4.50
Lidge 1.95 ERA, 229 ERA+, FIP 2.31
Romero 2.75 ERA, 163 ERA+, FIP 4.47
Madson 3.05 ERA, 147 ERA+, FIP 3.25
Durbin 2.87 ERA, 155 ERA+, FIP 3.60
Condrey 3.26 ERA, 137 ERA+, FIP 3.91

83 Oh, yeah, I forgot about the other teams.

84

I don't believe Howard is plus anything on defense...

80 81

That is what I expected

85

We need bigs in the worst way.

Gaddy, Hill and Moser makes up a pretty insane backcourt + wings, but bigs please!

81 Saito's WHIP for 2006-2007 is microscopic and probably close to .3 baserunner per inning lower than Broxton's.

But this year they are fairly compatible.

Like some have said, I think with Broxton, is closing efforts have not been as clean as his setup appearances and certainly not like vintage Gagne and Saito.

But as I and others have said, vintage Gagne and Saito are the extremes and we can't expect that all the time.