Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Jon Heyman of SI.com writes that "one (yes, one) person (that narrows it down) who's spoken to Dodgers people (we're talking an actual theoretical conversation) suggested that the team is considering proposing (I mean, heck, it could happen) a contract to Manny Ramirez that may come close to matching Alex Rodriguez's record $27.5-million average annual salary but on a much shorter term, perhaps only two years."
I mean, the qualifiers to that statement are deeper than the Grand Canyon.
However, that's enough for Heyman to write an entire column. And it's enough for ESPN.com to take the story and run:
Dodgers reportedly OK with Manny money over short term
ESPN's entire source for that headline? SI.com. SI.com's source? One person, who is not even a participant in the negotiations.
And yet the entire baseball world will now take it seriously.
Which means it's time for my annual reminder:
How To Survive the Hot Stove League Without Getting Burned
1) Rumors are not facts.2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news - whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media has decided).
3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it.
4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless.
5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge.
6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue.
7) Many Dodger Thoughts readers are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously.
8) Hometown papers will often inflate the value of their own players, either on their own initative or that of their sources, and print particularly unrealistic trade packages.
I'm not telling you not to have fun with the Hot Stove. Have fun! I'm just saying that from my experience here, people take the rumors way too seriously, discussion gets heated, and the fun goes away. And that's what I'd like to avoid.
- Your Friendly Hot Stove Curmudgeon
Yeaaaaaah!
The Dodgers should also stop trying to kill his knees and rest him every once of a while. Perhaps they should meet in a middle and a compromise can be achieved.
After seeing that TMZ video, the only problem I have with Martin is the people he brings home with him.
Come on, Russell. You are better than that.
NeverNight sounds like a lame DC's superheros name.
This is the worst part
Could believe for all the world
All the hot stove rumors that unfurl
But don't don't don't let's start
I've got a weak heart
And I don't get around how you get around. o/^
I almost let myself get hysterical over the first off season rumours, while it isn't even worth getting worked up over the last ones in March.
15 Well put.
Russell Martin said Wednesday night he developed a better understanding of his body and the positive effects of taking a day off when he can.
http://tinyurl.com/6kblmt
So maybe he will actually take some days off next year instead of playing 3rd base.
Maybe he meant from clubbing ; )
He has developed an alternative in his diet to seal meat.
My guess is some attendant said they saw Martin come in looking like he had a late night...that coupled with the TMZ video led to the "facts". And as far as I can tell, one video on TMZ does not mean Russell is a party animal.
It is not looking good for Tom Brady right now.
The short answer is, all Super Two players get is an extra year tacked on to their arbitration-eligible years. It does not change anything in regards to the 6 years MLB service time a player needs to have in order to declare free agency if his contract is up at that time.
So, yes, instead of the 3 years of arbitration time a player like Chad Billingsley will get (he is not eligible until after 2009), Ethier and Martin will have 4 years of arbitration time.
I plan on playing it cool this year also, it kind of makes me want to print that Jon page & put it some where near my computer...
This is the world's smallest violin playing for Tom Brady.
lol Awesome!
Note that only 12 players have been on both lists and they have not moved around that much.
The list below represents where those players were located on the 2007 list.
1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 23
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 23
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 24
5. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 21
7. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 24
9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 24
10. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 23
11. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 22
12. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 22
13. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins third baseman, age 24
14. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman, age 23
16. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 23
18. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 25
Agree with Jon and one of the real sad things about the SI article was how much of it was recycled. The quotes from Many were at least a week old, and I am still not sure how serious he was about a six year contract. I think the source may actually be a Boras connection, simply because he has to get pan hot to create a market.
IMO a great story that SI should do, given what Andruw Jones said the other day and the obvious Manny issue for the Dodgers, is a piece on how Boras handles what in my mind is a huge conflict of interest. Is Mr. Boras going to help the Dodgers get Jones traded, so he then can land Manny back with the Dodgers? As crazy as it sounds, if the Dodgers can't sign Manny, nor trade JP without eating a ton of salary, does it make any sense to keep Jones and pray he comes back to form or it least improves to a point that he can be traded at mid-season?
Has anyone ever heard Boras address any of these questions?
Boras is making his commission off Manny, so that is who he cares about. Wherever he can make the most off Manny is the best for him. He can worry about Jones later.
I'm thinking Russ going out is the rule instead of the exception.
http://tinyurl.com/6q67ze
4 years $95 mils with $1 mil performance bonuses for every all-star, MVP and playoff round MVP occurrence.
yr one - $20 mils w/ $10 mil deferred signing bonus over 3 yrs.
yr two - $25 mils
yr three - $20 mils or $10 mil buyout (team option)
yr four - $20 mils or $10 mil buyout (team option) or six yr deferred $15 mil buyout (player option).
I saw that the other day. He was going for an exciting game throughout. The end was certainly glorious in 1988, but I don't mind his choice of 1954. That game had a walk-off upset, and the Greatest Catch Of All Time®.
I've never seen a buyout as much as half of the year's salary.
Zito's buyout is $7m for a $18m salary.
Giambi's buyout is $5m for a $22m salary.
I think Vic Wertz's ball would have been over the CF camera that Canseco hit. :)
Still overall a good list. Imagine being an A's fan in that Game 4 of 1929.
That reminds me...I am surprised at how many children's books don't make any sense. I mean "Goodnight Moon" is all about a woman that talks to inanimate objects. I don't know if I want my son hearing that :)
And the "Very Hungry Caterpillar"...why doesn't the Caterpillar eat all of the food he encounters? He just drills a hole, feels hungry and moves on. You still have the entire apple to go, buddy!
Not to mention the acid trip that Ted Geisel (aka Dr. Seuss) was on when he wrote all his books! :)
That said, he was a large contributor to UCSD and the Geisel Library is pretty kick ass.
55 The best part about Hatcher's HR was the way he ran it out.
I don't remember the exact line, but I believe Garigiola said something like Hatcher was running like he thought they would take the HR off the board. :)
I mean, it's not called a "hometrot" or a "homejog" or a "homesaunter".
Player opt out or team opt out?
Then our GM can act shocked in November 2010 when Manny exercises said option. :)
And question Manny's religious beliefs.
Here are Manny's win shares total the last 7 seasons:
(offense + defense = total)
2002: 27.65 + 1.18 = 28.82
2003: 25.31 + 2.37 = 27.68
2004: 22.61 + 2.49 = 25.09
2005: 29.88 + 2.67 = 32.55
2006: 24.80 + 2.17 = 26.97
2007: 11.10 + 2.79 = 13.89
2008: 28.46 + 2.83 = 31.29
Not sure how that translates into salary though.
I know you are familiar with China (and just visited) and I was wondering if you could help me gather some information. My little sister is moving to China for 6 months for an internship and is young, slightly naive, and has no idea what to expect. She is only 24 and among other things has some technology related questions. Any way you could shoot me an email for some specific questions? For one thing, she needs a new laptop, should she buy one there or here? Anyone else with prior experience/knowledge feel free to shoot me an email at bwknapp at gmail dot com. BTW, why do people write out there email addresses like that? Thanks.
Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).
As listed in a player's PECOTA card, a player's MORP includes the major league minimum salary of $380,000 for 2007. Further, in a player's Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 8% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a player's Peak MORP does not include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)
For 2007, a player's MORP is estimated as follows:
1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000
Wins above replacement (WARP1):
2002: 8.3
2003: 8.0
2004: 7.0
2005: 6.7
2006: 5.9
2007: 4.7
2008: 9.8 (4.5 with Bos; 5.3 with LA)
MLB owners spent a total of $2,667,386,933 on salaries in 2008, for a total of 2,428 wins. That comes out to $1,098,594 per win.
I don't know if that means that a player should get paid roughly $1 million for each Win Share or not...
Using that formula, a 6 WARP from Manny is worth ~$18m or so.
Then Matt Kemp was worth over $20 million last year, and Loney was worth almost $12 million.
I don't buy it.
vr, Xei
I find it easy to believe that a very young man HAS been staying out late to the point that it has begun to affect his professional life. I find it easy to believe that the Dodgers are a bit concerned with his night-life habits and that something has gotten out about that. I find it more likely that the Dodgers are more concerned about his "habits", ie, a most likely temporary condition that can be rectifified, than his "makeup" with it's more permanent connotations. I find it nearly impossible to believe that the Dodgers have been shopping Martin. I'd call that part complete speculation.
http://tinyurl.com/5ozczw
Do you mean
1. the number tends to overestimate how well a player plays defense
2. the number tends to overestimate how much money defense is worth
3. both
(Go here to see how this system works:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2007-et-win-shares-value/
Ethier: 10.12 million
Manny: 9.62 million
Bills: 8.83 million
Kemp: 6.64 million
Lowe: 4.91 million
Russ: 1.79 million
Loney: 175 thousand
C Navarro - $3m (assumed; 1st year arb)
1B Peña - $8m
2B Iwamura - $3.25m
3B Longoria - $550k
SS Bartlett - $2m (assumed; 2nd year arb...or possibly Brignac?)
LF Crawford - $8.25m (club option or $2.5m buyout)
CF Upton - $500k (assumed; 3rd year)
RF Gross - $2.5m (assumed; 1st year arb)
DH Floyd - $2.75m option (or $250k buyout)
OF Gomes - $3m (assumed; 2nd year arb)
IF Aybar - $450k (assumed; 3rd year)
IF/OF Zobrist - $425k (assumed; 2nd year)
C Riggans/Hernandez - $425k (assumed)
SP Kazmir - $6m
SP Shields - $1.5m
SP Garza - $475k (assumed; 2nd year)
SP Price - $1.583m ($650k + spread out signing bonus)
SP Sonnanstine - $450k (assumed; 2nd year)
CL Percival - $4.45m
RP Wheeler - $3.2m
RP Howell - $475k (assumed; 3rd year)
RP Miller - $2m option (or $400k buyout)
RP Bradford - $3.5m
RP Balfour - $2m (assumed; 2nd year arb)
RP Niemann - $400k
RP Jackson - $2m (assumed; 1st year arb)
Baldelli - $4m (already bought out 2009 option)
Total - $67.133m
That's if they brought back everyone, which would be 26 guys. They can save $5-7m by declining the options on Bartlett, Floyd, and Miller, and trading Edwin Jackson.
The point is that's a really good team for only about $60m.
Billingsley was that much more valuable than Lowe...?
That's only for two months of Manny, right?
(Win shares above bench-(Salary-380,000)/multiplier)*.887
Where multiplier is 1.76 million for a free agent 841 thousand for arbitration eligible, and 17 thousand for a non arbitration eligible.
I supppose if David Price is as good as everyone thinks he is, he could make up for the above regressions.
They really need 1 more big bat to solidify a 3-4 yr run of 90+ wins.
The Players Union could not have been happy about Longoria's contract.
Dunn would be a pretty good fit for Tampa actually.
I will bet you they have at least 360 wins from 2009-2012.
Its certainly a great insurance policy, but severely limits his future earnings potential.
Garza was a good prospect, but I think the results he got this year were better than his peripherals (and career peripherals) would suggest.
Garza's K/9 was 6.62
But his h/9 was just 8.29.
His hit rate is really really low considering he's not a big K/9 guy. Some of that could be attributed to the Rays defense, but I think most of it is just pure luck that could change back next year.
http://tinyurl.com/5ac684
No
Full and healthy years from Longoria/Upton/Crawford would certainly help in 2009 to keep them at that level. A full year from Price, a 2009 influx from Davis in the rotation and McGee in the bullpen. Maybe more growth from Jackson.
Abreu or Dunn would be excellent additions to this team.
Say Manny is offered two contracts:
Yr 1: 27.5M
Yr 2: 27.5M; can opt-out after this year
Yr 3: 22.5M; can opt-out after this year
Yr 4: 22.5M
Total: 100M
OR...
Yr 1: 20M
Yr 2: 20M
Yr 3: 25M
Yr 4: 25M
Yr 5: 30M
Total: 120M
Which does he take, the guaranteed extra $20M in the bank or the chance to make so much more if he can keep up his production?
I know which I'd take, but I'm not Manny.
http://tinyurl.com/67d3tj
If you read the comments, it seems that the young Mr. Sutton isn't all that popular with the good folk in the Valley of the Sun for his work on DBacks broadcasts.
I just went to YouTube to look for a video of the Oregon-ASU basketball game 10 years or so ago that Oregon won despite trailing by 4 points with some 2 seconds remaining and the ball in ASU's possession.
I didn't find what I was looking for.
Didn't USC beat Oregon in similar fashion within the last 10 years or so? I seem to recall Adam Spanich hitting two threes within a five second span or something like that to overcome a 5-point deficit.
Bad? :)
It was Spanich, and it was 1999:
http://tinyurl.com/5tr3ve
It's more fun when your team has an incredible comeback win than when the other team does it to your team.
This was the starting everyday salary of the team that was on the field for most of Sept:
Russ Martin, $500,000
Andre Ethier, $424,500
Manny, $0 (Boston paid his salary)
James Loney, $411,000
Matt Kemp, $406,000
Casey Blake, $0 (Indians paid)
Blake DeWitt, $390,000
Angel Berroa, $0 (Royals paid).
Did they film the video for the song that wrote about me on the streets of some town along the lines of Las Vegas?
It was in downtown Vegas. Everytime I walk down that street I feel compelled to sing that song.
111 I would be surprised if Manny does better than $90 million on a contract this winter. I would think you can get him for 4/90 or if you're in the AL, you might fo 5/100. He is not going to average over 22 million unless he goes 2-3 years.
Do you kiss seemingly random women...?
Couldn't find video, but here's some info about it.
http://tinyurl.com/56m66x
112
I just went to YouTube to look for a video of the Oregon-ASU basketball game 10 years or so ago that Oregon won despite trailing by 4 points with some 2 seconds remaining and the ball in ASU's possession.
*I didn't find what I was looking for.(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fBj2wsimvQ
Sigh. What kind of crazy person isn't familiar with U2 music videos (from the late 80s)?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fBj2wsimvQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fBj2wsimvQ
Only if what I was looking for was a slap to the face!
It was 4 down with 4 seconds to go. The game was on March 2, 2000.
Arizona State made two free throws with 6 seconds left to take a four-point lead. Oregon threw a 3/4 length of the court pass to Alex Scales who hit a three pointer.
ASU then threw the ball out of bounds and Oregon got the ball back under the ASU basket although the news account says the pass went off of Eddie House's fingers.
Darius Wright hit a 3-pointer as time expired to give Oregon a 76-74 win.
http://tinyurl.com/6qljod
Google Ads really, really want me to buy a Ryan Klesko baseball card.
Sure, 5 seconds later counts as a tie. In fantasy land!!!
I would love to do that, or eventually be on Best Week Ever or I Love the 80s or something. :)
Can you imagine Manny in LF in, say, 3-4 years?
Sigh. What kind of crazy person isn't familiar with U2 music videos (from the late 80s)?
I am down with that sentiment.
I've seen Jeff Kent at 2B, so yes.
http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/
Kemp and Ethier are virtual locks. I wouldn't be utterly shocked if one of Pierre/Jones were given a chance to win the job, assuming they're not both traded. It's not so much that I think Management wants to give one of them a shot, as much as that I'm not convinced that Management will be able to get rid of both of them.
But Minaya does have job security to do whatever he wants.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2008/10/comeback-player-of-year-for-fr.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDqQdeh2gM
This is my favorite.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEfSnjL0pd8
In terms of defining the bad, number of titanic anthems, and sheer impact on the music world, The Joshua Tree is the clear winner.
But in terms of song quality from start to finish, I tend to think Achtung Baby is slightly better.
Clint Hurdle wants Jim Tracy as his bench coach! Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah!
161 Me, too.
SportsNation Keith Law: Don't call me "buster," pal.
And the answer to that is... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
SportsNation Keith Law: Don't call me "buster," pal.
Rich ( Parker, Co ): I'm not your pal, friend!
SportsNation Keith Law: I'm not your friend, buddy!
Rich ( Parker, Co ): I'm not your buddy, guy!
158 I'd vote Joshua Tree, but also think very highly of their first few albums, especially War. I like all of those better than any of their more recent works, personally.
I was a senior in HS when I saw U2 on their Joshua Tree tour, with the Pretenders! One of the best concerts I've ever seen.
After a whole season, the NY Daily News doesn't have a file photo of Fernando Tatis in a Mets cap?
I like Keith Law even more now.
I'm not your guy, friend!
vr, Xei
1) Bad
2) Running to Stand Still
3) All I Want Is You
4) One
5) Where The Streets Have No Name
6) With or Without You
7) Love Rescue Me
8) Pride
9) So Cruel
10) Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own
Joshua Tree in a close race over Achtung Baby, with Rattle & Hum and All That You Can't Leave Behind within reasonable distance behind.
vr, Xei
Abdul Gaddy, come on down! You are the next contestant on the Howland is Right.
Was he born in the USA? I really don't know...
Coincidentally (but not ironically), I have been listening exclusively to U2 during my commuting hours for the past week or so. Achtung Baby, Joshua Tree, War? Flip a three-sided object.
I remember being a college student in 1980 when "I Will Follow" started popping up on the radio and was immediately attracted to it. Bought "Boy" and was hooked.
Ortiz and Pena drop bunts down from time to time. A lot of time they don't want to do it because they'd rather try to hit a home run. I've never seen Howard bunt against the shift.
1) The solo at the end of All I Want Is You
2) The entire song of Where The Streets Have No Name
Ty Cobb once wrote Williams to explain how he could hit balls to left.
Bill James predicts that Andy LaRoche will draw 74 walks next year.
Awesome, baby!!!
Gurnick has a shortish recap/forecast article up. I didn't find it all that interesting, but this caught my eye:
"[Acquiring Manny] was the most spectacular deadline trade in the history of the organization and had the greatest impact of any trade in club history"
Maybe the full impact isn't known until after this offseason's roster reconstruction.
One could argue the following trades may have made more impact:
Mike Piazza - negative impact over a long period of time.
Reggie Smith - hugely instrumental player for the 77-78 World Series teams.
D4P might have another nominee.
Amy Nelson is on ESPNews right now. Too bad you cannot watch. ; )
Along the same lines, did you think the balls needed 'scuffing' like they did when Lowe was pitching. I didn't hear if that was mentioned in the broadcast because I don't listen to the FOX guys. (I put on Rattle & Hum!).
I have ended the boycott of the name
I revel in the University of Arizona's shambles of a basketball program now.
Saturday will be the Wildcats traditional "Well, we've been playing over our heads and now we'll get killed" football game.
I hope the USC fans in Tucson storm the field.
That's one of MANY U2 songs that give me chills. [high 5!]
I think 7 days after the World Series
FA salary guidelines
http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html
Within 7 days after the end of the World Series.
The Dodgers still have option decisions to make on Brad Penny and Gary Bennett. Penny has a $9.25 million salary or $2 million buyout. Bennett has a $900,000 option or $50,000 buyout and is expected to be bought out. Penny's option must be exercised within seven days after the end of the World Series, Bennett 10 days after the World Series
http://tinyurl.com/5qs477
The Phillies seem to have mastered the whole "get 7 strong innings from Hamels, have Utley hit a 2-run HR for our first run, and win 3-2 in Game 1" thing.
Actually, I think it would add somethng if Lidge were to lose the game tonight.
Of course Eric will then have to buy me a shirt so I am not without interest in the result.
It's getting bought out either way, just don't know what he's in line to make.
The more likely outcome will be Willie Tuitama leaving the field on a golf cart.
Everywhere that I've seen it lately in news reports has $9.25m, so I've taken to trusting that figure.
Because I do not have DirecTV and don't have FSN Prime Ticket, I did not watch last weekend's "game" against WSU, but instead listened to Pete Arbogast's call of the entire 69-0 blowout.
You haven't lived until you've heard his special brand of broadcasting during such a blowout. To my surprise, I believe his "How Do You Do?" quota went unfulfilled.
Mikey (Philly): Are you angry because you are not allowed to ride all of the rides at an amusement park?
Keith Law: Sorry, I don't know when Tim is chatting.
Elementary humor still always gets me a cheap laugh.
Smile when I come over your house.
I'd bet on them not exercising the option. A year ago at this time he was our ace. For one more year it will be worthwhile to see if he just had basic arm woes and has something left. He will be plenty motivated.
I really only know three "The Cure" songs, and I like each one.
They might be Dodgers
They might be good
They might be bad
They might be Ned Colletti's smoking hand ...
Tabloid footprints in your hair
Simers, Plaschke everywhere
We can't be lodgers
'Cause they might be Dodgers
And what are we going to do unless they are?
Or possibly Terry Jack Thoughts.
or Stiff Little Fingers Thoughts
or Charles Wright Thoughts
or Minutemen Thoughts
My Morning Jacket was late 90s.
my favorite 90s albums:
liz phair - exile in guyville
neutral milk hotel -in the aeroplane over the sea
my bloody valentine - loveless
wilco - summerteethradiohead - ok computer
my morning jacket - the tennessee fire
Last week I posted the poll results of which pitcher under the age of 25 would you like to build your team around between; Garza, Lester, Hamels, Kazmir, and Billingsley with Billingsley being dead last (behind Garza? Really?) on the ESPN.com poll. Today they have the same question posted with Billingsley being replaced with Lincecum.
I don't know what this says about myself but this really angers me. Not that people would take Hamels, Lester, Lincecum, Kazmir over Billingsley but the fact that it's not even a debate. I understand most of the general public has no clue what periphals are but Billingsley's periphals are better than everyone on that list not named Lincecum. But look at his career ERA, it's 3.33! He's the Rodney Dangerfield of pitching, just for whatever reason he doesn't appeal to the mass public.
Emperor
Cradle of Filth
Arcturus
Borknagar
Dissection
Morbid Angel
Mayhem
Nocturnus
At The Gates
Dark Tranquillity
In Flames
I was pretty much already out of the game in the 90's, but my favorite bands/artists were
Uncle Tupelo
Nirvana
Beck
Fatboy Slim
Soundgarden
Beastie Boys
Janes Addiction
I'd be alarmed if you had. Many of those groups were not available through domestic channels at the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KrwM7c5XtE
Interestingly, I never had long hair. I did dye it black once, though, in 1995.
Ha. That's great.
There is a better clip in the episode, but I could not find it.
Yes, yes, a thousand times, yes.
There was a period in my life lasting about six months when I listened to this album and Olivia Tremor Control's Dusk at Cubist Castle over and over and over again.
252 I say it with little reservation its my personal favorite piece of art, of any form. A few books come close (Namely Nine Stories by Salinger), but the album has livened the best years of my life and gotten me through the worst. I doubt I'd ever get a tattoo in my lifetime, but if I did, it'd be a reference to that.
How does this compare to his stuff as Magnolia Electric Co.? I have Soujourner and I'm very impressed.
255 On a per listens basis, his Ohia stuff gets about 3-4 more listens than the Magnolia stuff, and I love MEC. It's a little bit more lofi and darker, and some of the albums are understandably hard to digest (his Voice has more tremble, the songs develop slower, and don't mind sitting in noise). That said, The Lioness, Magnolia Electric Co. (the album by Songs: Ohia, not the band. Thanks for being confusing, Jason) are both incredible, but Axxess & Ace and the live album Mi Sei Apparaso Come Un Fantasma both rank very, very high on my favorite albums lists.
I own his entire discography (Ohia, Jason Molina, and MEC), so feel free to hit me up at jacobburch at gmail dot com if you wanted a sampler.
http://somafm.com/play/bootliquor
I absolutely hate hip hop now. If I ever tend to like a new song it is for comical reasons.
Which bands/artists do you like out now?
MGMT, The Bravery, Silversun Pickups, Death Cab, Foo Fighters, Beck. I think we've recovered from the Linkin Park era.
264 Not at me, but I do agree with reg. This may go with what counts as mainstream or not. I'd consider anything that could play on Letterman or Kimmel mainstream, in which Neko Case, Radiohead, My Morning Jacket, Spank Rock, Feist, Joanna Newsom and Cat Power get nods
BTW, speaking of My Morning Jacket the song "One Big Holiday" has one of the best guitar solos I've heard in an very long time (it lasts about half of the song). Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-5gipOwIbM&feature=related
If you think good hip hop died but havne't heard Spank Rock, MFDOOM, Blackalicious, Saul Williams, Ryhmefest, Black Star, or Common then its more result of the bizarre underground/mainstream dichotomy that the internet era has created.
I like Rascal Flatts too, it's hard to admit that. It's like admitting that you thought some Backstreet Boys/N' Sync songs are catchy.
Of those guys though, I would only call Common mainstream and I am not sure Black Star even exists anymore.
There is good hip hop out there that is different like Dalek and Subtle, but I was just referring to mainstream stuff. Whenever I am in my friend's car I hear nothing but Lil Wayne and T-Pain and all that junk.
Let me speak the opposite of what's hot now /
and make THAT hot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMrg2MCOxRM
But all Kanye does is sample from other songs.
Oh and I agree with 252 completely. Had the same experience with NMH and OLT, so much so that I briefly burned out on them both and just about all Elephant 6 stuff until recently revisiting and re-loving it all over again.
Anyone listen to Clap Your Hands Say Yeah? Good stuff.
Every one of the Dodger non-pitcher kids has room for improvement, with varying degrees of importance assigned to those improvements.
Most teams don't have a catcher as good as Martin is now, but the dropoff in his SLG is a concern.
Most teams don't have a right fielder as good as Ethier was this year, and similarly, most teams don't have a center fielder as good as Kemp is now. But I think we'd all like to see Kemp develop on his great promise, and I sure hope that Ethier's performance was a put-it-all-together thing and not a fluke thing.
Most teams had a better 1B this year than James Loney was. I root for him, but he needs to step forward or the Dodgers will find somebody else.
Most teams had a better 3B than DeWitt was this year. He needs to improve or he needs to be optioned.
1. Surrender
2. Unforgettable Fire
3. 40
4. One Tree Hill
5. Yahweh
6. Beautiful Day
7. Still Haven't
8. Pride
The Rangers gave up, the A's gave up, the Tigers gave up, the Red Sox gave up, and then he finally, in his 7th major league season, he went to the Rays and hit like Ted Williams.
Even knowing that the great season was coming, would you be willing to sit through three full years of of mediocre production from 1B to get there?
-Keith Law
And look, I see your point about Pena: you don't go giving away talent with great promise for nothing. And I'm not suggesting that the Dodgers do that.
I AM suggesting that the production from 1B was lacking last year and that James Loney's best tool in his arsenal is his age... that is, he has time to improve. That is both the easiest result, in that it'll take the question out of the team's hands, and the best result, in that I love rooting for Loney.
I am also predicting (not necessarily endorsing) that if Loney doesn't improve quickly -- like Pena didn't -- some other team will be the beneficiary when he does improve.
And I agree entirely with 295. James Loney should be our first baseman every day in 2009. He has time to improve, and we all hope that he will.
Pena was not worthless while with the Tigers. They released him for reasons I've never understood and he never actually got a shot with Boston or NYY. His OB skills have jumped quite a bit since the move to TB.
Of the teams he played on only two Oakland and Detroit gave him meaningful major league at bats until he landed in TB. If Hee Sop Choi had not gotten hurt in the spring of 2007 who knows what Pena's future might have been. The key was getting the chance after he had been a decent 1st baseman for 3 years running. He didn't become the star the Tigers expected so they discarded him but he was just as good as someone like Casey or Minky who kept finding full time jobs with no problem.
Who'stosaybrmetrics.
The biography of Uncle Tupelo and Wilco by Greg Kot is really good, by the way; I highly recommend it.
Well, I never said he was worthless. I said that he never fulfilled his promise, which -- judging by what he's shown he's capable of, he didn't.
And comparing Pena to Casey or Mientkiewicz is precisely my point: I'm not satisfied with that level of production and I sure hope that Loney can out-produce that. He should be given some time to see if he can. But I predict that he won't be given four more years to do so.
I hated that remake.
Conversely, if there's a realistic supposition that Russell Martin might not be the answer, the FO needs to start making moves soon to come up with Plan B. Catchers don't grow on trees. If the rumor-mongering about Martin has any merit, it would obviously have been insane to trade Carlos Santana. So maybe the Santana trade is evidence that Martin's problems seem fixable.
I admit, it's frustrating to see how well Navarro's doing. Martin had, what, a good month while Navarro was injured, thereupon Navarro became expendable for some Tampa junk. That's imprudent. If you've got two promising young catchers (like Anaheim does in Napoli and Mathis), the amount of time you wait to make the decision on which one to keep should be measured in years, not days.
"Big Game James"
OK, this is going a little too far... We can definitely call Loney this after his grand slam against the cubs, however, the national media (i.e. ESPN) has taken off with this nickname for anyone named James doing anything remotely important. LA should keep exclusive rights to the usage...
Or that the front office is schizophrenic and reckless when assessing the talent of young players.
Choi and Pena were both NRI's for Tampa in the spring of 2007. At one point Choi seemed to have the edge on making the team when he got hurt. That is my recollection, it could be wrong.
Ty Wiggington started the year as the starting 1st baseman and Pena got some game time in a job share. When Iwamura got hurt Wiggy moved to 3rd and Pena took the job. When Iwamura came back, Wiggy eventually moved to 2nd and that is how Upton became a CF. Then they traded Wiggy.
Without Choi or Wiggy getting hurt who knows where Pena would be. No one gave him a chance in 2006, who's to say he would have gotten another one.
Eric we missed you during the post season run. Did you stay away on purpose?
Also, why is Logan getting blame for Wright? Is he in charge of rule 5 roster manuevering?
Anyway, not protecting Wright was unequivocally a mistake -- and we all said it at the time -- but it's not the kind of thing that wrecks franchises. He's just a LOOGY, after all.
311 Would you really have kept Navarro through 2006, 2007, and 2008?
Would you have wanted Navarro over Martin after Navarro's OPS+ of 70 last year (with an OBP of 286 and Martin's 2007 OPS+ of 113?
I'll give fifty bucks* to the person who said that they thought Navarro was a better long-term bet than Martin sometime during the 2007 season.
And I remember very well the incessant whining on DT about Navarro's poor hitting during the 2006 season and how happy we all were when Martin came in and caught fire. Martin has been great for us. He's our catcher. And we were never going to get much in return for Navarro in 2006 at the time because he had not shown much evidence that he would hit well enough to be more than a league-average catcher. So could people please stop whining about losing Navarro? He's a good catcher, granted, but to say in 2008 that we shouldn't have traded him so quickly while neglecting his 2006 and 2007 performances is expecting perfect foresight.
*Not really, but you get the point.
We should make up a new nickname, Hiroki "Road Warrior" Kuroda
2006: 101
2007: 113
2008: 106
Dioner Navarro OPS+
2006: 79
2007: 70
2008: 98
To put it in perspective. Martin did regress this year, but despite that he still had the better offensive year over Navarro. Mostly due to the walks Martin has produced. Only 34 walks for Navarro to Martin's 90 walks he amassed in 2008.
I'm not talking down Russell Martin. I like him a lot. I figure the team and he will figure out how to better optimize his contribution to the team in 2009. What's been said about him losing favor with the Dodgers is, I assume, another case of 0 , i.e. thinly sourced falsitude.
I'm just saying, trading Navarro was done too casually. There was no urgent need to shed him, but at the time he was traded, it was as if Martin's arrival meant Navarro simply had to be gotten rid of, as if it would have been a quarterback controversy type of scenario if they'd hung onto him.
Watching your long time wife die of cancer can have some side effects. Maybe he was always a bit crazy and she kept him in touch with reality.
It was very urgent to get that left handed basketball player.
Maybe that was the case with my dad.
Given that Navarro didn't hit poorly for the Dodgers in 2006, I find that extremely hard to believe. I do recall Navarro having some defensive troubles during the first part of that season though.
The criticism of the Navarro trade isn't some sort of "hindsight is 20-20" thing. Navarro was a great young prospect. He's younger than Martin and when they were coming up through the minors Navarro was considered the far better prospect. Even at the time of the trade, people here called it a terrible trade and a waste of a good resource.
Also, you're harping on Navarro's stats from his poorest season when every other season in his major and minor league career showed him to be a hitter of considerable promise.
I don't think anyone was clamoring to keep Navarro over Martin, but there was nonetheless consternation, even at the time, that Navarro was given away for nothing when he could unquestionably have fetched something useful in a trade.
Keeping both Navarro and Martin probably would have been unreasonable (though Jon did argue to keep both so that they'd both be fresh all the time). Trading one made sense. But who'd we get back?
Maybe he could have gotten more than what was received but he never would have been a showcase guy.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/navardi01.shtml
"Incessant whining" was probably a Rule 6 on my part. I'd downgrade that to "a fair amount of griping".
Only when the Dodgers stop throwing away valuable young players for dubious rentals. Or to be more blunt about it, where are Jae Wong Seo, Toby Hall, and Mark Hendrickson these days?
Apparently, this "selling" the prospect to cover (part of) the contract process didn't start with Carlos Santana. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts (see sidebar), the cash amount was $1M, and Hendrickson's contract was $1.95M that year, so that seems like the remainder of his contract.
It's close to being out of baseball, but Baltimore still has a team.
1. Joshua Tree > Achtung Baby. Both are excellent.
2. I also saw U2 at the Coliseum on the Joshua Tree tour -- an amazing concert. IIRC the field had tons of folding chairs, with every one standing on them. I remember stepping down for a second, and the bass stopped compressing my ribcage since it was blocked by all the other bodies.
3. There is a ton of great hip hop still being made -- you just won't hear it on the radio. Check out anything on the indy Definitive Jux or Babygrande labels for starters.
4. The 90s were awesome for music, if only for the death of the processed cheese food product known as pop metal.
5. Sign CC, sign Manny, trade JP to the White Sox or Reds, trade Andruw to whoever will take him, and see if Beltre can be pried out of Seattle. Then let's see what November brings. ;)
ROB NEYER: Kershaw's a Grade A prospect, a two-or-three-per-year sort of prospect. Price is A+, a once-every-three-or-four-years prospect.
Clayton Kershaw 2008 - 104 ERA+, 107 2/3 IP
Felix Hernandez 2006 - 98, 191
Zack Greinke 2004 - 120, 145
Jeremy Bonderman 2003 - 77, 162
C.C. Sabathia 2001 - 102, 180 1/3
Rick Ankiel 2000 - 134, 175
2003 - 69
2004 - 149
2005 - 172 1/3
2006 - 191
2007 - 190 1/3
2009 - 200 2/3
Who knows what he threw in winter ball or extended spring training or such things, but the one big jump is first to second year; the 2004 to 2006 increases look reasonable.
Nails it again.
Imprudent.
To say the least.
A lot of people say, "well, it's only the backup catcher so who cares?", which is a response I fail to understand. Baseball games are won at the margins. Everything counts. Lieberthal, Bennett, and Ardoin collectively OPS+ed about 55 in almost 200 plate appearances. That's a huge waste, considering that a gigantic upgrade was available in-house for free.
Martin played 155 games this year. 155! That's insane. No team's starting catcher should ever play 155 games. And the reason he was forced to do it was because we gave away Navarro for nothing.
I also don't find the argument credible that one of the two had to be traded. That's tortured logic at its worst. You have a choice between having a good backup catcher and a bad one, and you go out of your way to choose the bad one? It makes no sense to say, "this guy's too good, we need to get rid of him and find somebody crappier."
358
Excellent observations.
Little did we know at the time that this was the pattern which was to follow.
"Free Money" now in lieu of minor league player development money for a somebody crappier PVL.
The blame for this all rests on the shoulders of Gary Bennett.
1) At the time of his trade, he still had options, and
2) So what if he ended up fighting for playing time?
The cost of the Navarro trade indeed has been probably 20-30 games to Martin, and all the miles that implies.
Both catchers are young and under team control at reasonable prices, and the players can't really say anything about it for the first few years. What's wrong with the Dodgers doing that? Would they be criticized for holding Navarro back? Why should that matter to the team? By trading Navarro, they've paid more and gotten less. It's irrational.
I could be a GM. Lord knows that's how I've managed my 401K.
381 - Branch Rickey? Theo Epstein? Brian Sabean? Brian Cashman? Steve Phillips? Kevin Malone?
Hey, at least I have to pretend like it's a tough decision.
Dodgers Column by Simers.
An Internet report has the Dodgers preparing a two-year deal approaching $27 million a year for Ramirez, knowing full well he won't take it. But it will give the owner a chance to say he tried to make the player rich, but he couldn't force him to take it.
Ramirez has said he's interested in a six-year deal, his way of joking, but always with a hint of truth attached. This will most likely be his final contract, so he's looking for at least four years.
The owner knows that, but the owner will be offering the player two years so the Dodgers don't have to sign him.
Wonder if "the fans" buy it.
I don't know why, but that passage makes a lot of sense. I would not be surprised at all to see the McCourts posturing to make it seem like he tried when he really didn't.
My guess is, they just don't want to give Manny 4 years, but they'd be more than happy to land Joe Crede to a 6 year contract! Ugh.
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