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Gather 'round and watch as the myths explode - once and for all - and the truth is revealed.
1) Right through his final start, Eric Gagne remained a starting pitcher with great promise.
2) Throughout his career as a reliever, Gagne has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in non-save situations.
Join me, Retrosheet and ESPN.com as we look back at Gagne's career, year-by-year. And then, if you're convinced about how underrated he is when he's not closing, help spread the word.
Gagne came up as a starting pitcher in September 1999 at age 23 and was outstanding. That's right - outstanding.
In four of the five starts, he allowed no more than one earned run - and never threw fewer than five innings. In his debut, at Florida, Gagne gave a performance not unlike Edwin Jackson's fondly recalled first game: six innings, two hits, one walk, eight strikeouts, no runs allowed. In his worst game, he had a 3-2 lead over the 97-win New York Mets entering the sixth inning before faltering. He ended the year with six shutout innings in Houston. For the season, he struck out 30 in 30 innings, walking 15 and posting a 2.10 ERA.
As a 24-year-old, Gagne's strikeout rate dropped while his rate of home runs allowed increased. But he had periods of effectiveness mixed within. Entering the rotation on April 15, Gagne had an ERA of 3.22 after four starts totaling 22 1/3 innings. His worst game in that stretch came when he allowed three solo homers to Atlanta, but only four other baserunners in six innings.
The month of June typified Gagne's season. On June 6, he shut out Texas for six innings. In his next start, he gave up five runs in the first inning to Oakland, but still lasted five innings, allowing one more run in the fifth.
Gagne mixed the good with the bad for several more weeks, before leaving the active roster on July 27 after allowing eight runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innnings - excuseable, considering it came in Colorado in a game you might well remember: the Dodgers won, 16-11, with Adrian Beltre driving in six runs and Alex Cora five.
Gagne returned for four starts in September and was solid: He went six innings in three of the four, allowing six runs in 22 1/3 innings (2.42 ERA). Surprisingly, he did have one six-inning stirkeout free start, which meant he only whiffed 15 in that month. But for a season with ups and downs, and an ultimately below-average 5.15 ERA, Gagne ended on a strong note.
Now a member of the Dodger starting rotation from the opening week, Gagne came out sharp, with a five-inning, six-strikeout, one-run performance against Arizona (facing Randy Johnson) and an eight-inning, seven-strikeout, one-run game in his fourth start, in the city where his transformation to closer would take shape a year later, San Francisco. But again, inconsistency plagued him, and he fell out of the rotation in early June with his ERA at 6.05.
Returning in July, Gagne pitched four superb games out of five, if not five out of five - the questionable game was a six-inning, seven-run game at Coors Field in which he earned the 22-7 victory. For the month, including that difficult Colorado start, Gagne was 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. Add in the stats for Gagne's first four August starts, and the Canadian was on a streak of 58 innings, 44 strikeouts and a 3.26 ERA.
Gagne finished August with two non-quality starts in which he allowed nine runs in 9 1/3 innings, and spent most of September in the bullpen. Once more, however, he ended the season with a fine start: six innings, two runs, three hits, four walks, six strikeouts. His ERA for the year was 4.75 - still not good enough to rely on, but hardly a lost cause. He had 13 quality starts out of 24 for the year - pretty promising for someone who was still young.
After adding four new starting pitchers during the offseason - Odalis Perez, Hideo Nomo, Kazuhisa Ishii and Omar Daal - the Dodgers decided to put Gagne in the bullpen. His first three games as a full-time reliever came in non-save situations, and it was the 3 2/3 shutout innings with one hit, zero walks and six strikeouts that encouraged Jim Tracy to give him a chance to record his first save, which happened April 7 at home against Colorado. The transcendent moment that cemented his status as closer came four days later, when Tracy allowed Gagne to get out of his own two-on, one-out jam in San Francisco, striking out Jeff Kent and retiring Reggie Sanders on a deep fly to center to preserve a 4-3 victory.
From that moment on through today, most of Gagne's appearances were in save situations. When they weren't, they were usually in tie games at home in the ninth inning or after, when a save was no longer possible.
One-third of an inning in Cincinnati on August 1, accounted for nearly half the runs Gagne allowed in non-save situations that year. Entering the game in the ninth inning with a 4-0 lead, Gagne allowed a two-run home run, then was ejected after hitting Adam Dunn with a pitch that everyone but the soon-to-be-reprimanded home-plate umpire agreed was unintentional. Dunn also scored in what was to become one of the Dodgers' most bitter defeats of the decade so far.
It would defeat the purpose of this exercise, of course, to evaluate Gagne without that game on the record, but just to show the impact that it had - without it, Gagne's ERA in non-save opportunities in 2002 would have been lower than his ERA in save opportunities. In any case, Gagne still posted a wonderful ERA even when he couldn't get a save.
Non-save opportunity stats: 22 1/3 IP, 14 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 30 K, 2.82 ERA
Save opportunity stats: 60 IP, 31 H, 11 R, 11 BB, 84 K, 1.65 ERA
The killer game for Gagne, the one that more or less established his reputation as a non-save opportunity stiff - or NSOS - was May 12 vs. Atlanta. Entering a tie game in the top of the ninth with a 0.48 ERA for the season, Gagne allowed three hits and a walk, all of whom scored in a seven-run Braves ninth inning. He followed that game with two runs allowed in his next non-save opportunity 17 days later, allowing Todd Helton's third home run of the game with a man aboard in the Coors Field environment that always plagued him as a starter, cementing his NSOS status for most people.
Again, this infamous stretch overshadowed how useful Gagne was whenever he pitched.
Non-save opportunity stats: 25 1/3 IP, 16 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 11 BB, 38 K, 3.20 ERA
Save opportunity stats: 57 IP, 21 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 9 BB, 99 K, 0.32 ERA
Absolutely ungodly in save opportunities, Gagne was still aces virtually any other time he emerged from the bullpen. Again, just to show the impact of one game, his ERA in non-save opportunities outside of May 12 would have been 1.80.
In his first 14 appearances without a save opportunity, covering 17 1/3 innings, Gagne allowed one run on eight hits while striking out 23 - an ERA of 0.52. This should have put to rest the myth that Gagne was ineffective in non-save opportunities for good - not that the myth should have existed in the first place.
Unfortunately, Gagne's nadir game of 2004 came in his second appearance after Guillermo Mota was traded to Florida, which was also his first appearance after pitching three shutout innings in a memorable non-save opportunity that led to perhaps a season-saving victory at San Diego. On August 6, with the local media raging against asunder-tearing Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta, Gagne pitched a shutout 10th inning before allowing four runs in the top of the 11th in a 9-5 Dodger defeat. This came 12 days before Gagne's record consecutive save streak ended at home against Florida. Though the storm of 2004 was the canard that Gagne was overworked - something else that proved untrue, somehow the myth of Gagne's short attention span theater in non-save situations persisted.
On September 17 - in a non-save opportunity in Colorado - Gagne faced eight batters. He allowed one hit, one walk and struck out six. So much for lack of concentration.
In the playoffs, because Jose Lima pitched a complete game in the Dodgers' one victory, Gagne only pitched in non-save situations. He threw three shutout innings, allowing one hit, walking one and striking out three.
Non-save opportunity stats: 33 IP, 20 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 8 BB, 43 K, 2.18 ERA
Save opportunity stats: 52 2/3 IP, 33 H, 16 R, 12 ER, 14 BB, 71 K, 2.05 ERA
Virtually equal.
There you go again, Eric. You come off the disabled list after nearly two months and have the nerve to allow two home runs in your first game back. Must have been because a save wasn't on the line.
Since those first two batters homered, Gagne has pitched four shutout innings. But you can't change how the ERA is calculated:
Non-save opportunity stats: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 4.50 ERA
Save opportunity stats: 0 IP
Which leads us to Gagne's record in non-save opportunities since becoming the Dodger closer in 2002 ...
Totals, 2002-2005
Non-save opportunity stats: 84 2/3 IP, 54 H, 27 R, 26 ER, 25 BB, 119 K, 2.76 ERA
Save opportunity stats: 169 2/3 IP, 85 H, 29 R, 25 ER, 34 BB, 254 K, 1.33 ERA
Eric Gagne is insanely great in save opportunities, merely great in non-save opportunities.
It doesn't matter what inning it is for Eric Gagne. Use him or waste him.
The game by game analysis is crucial to making your case, and overcoming what the cold numbers seem to say. What a feat of analysis combined with sterling prose.
Still, it's interesting that there is a difference, but I agree, it doesn't mean what the "myth" says it means. It just means he's a ridiculously great pitcher who happened to come into his own via the bullpen. No question, a career as an excellent starter was available to him had the Dodgers kept him in that role.
But, one last recollection you can confirm or shoot down...in 2002, wasn't Gagne on the bubble in Spring Training, until it became necessary to try him in the bullpen? Weren't the Dodgers having a surplus of starters, with Gagne the most likely to get sent down? I seem to recall that the switch not only helped the team, but helped keep him in the majors. But, as you've demonstrated, my memory is shaky.
As far as 2002 Spring Training goes, I think your recollection is on target. The Dodgers had five solid starting pitchers that year, even with Kevin Brown injured for much of that time: Nomo, Perez, Ashby, Ishii and Daal. So they needed to do something with Gagne. Had 2002 been 2005, a year with less pitching depth, Gagne would probably still be a starter today. I may make a note of that in the piece above.
That's not to say that Gagne should be made a starter today, just that he didn't fail out of starting.
I tried searching the LA Times archives, but all of the stories are pay stories. Based on the story abstracts, there were a couple interesting notes. Prior to the 2002 season, we were considering Ugueth Urbina and Antonio Alfonseca as solutions to our closer problem. Also, everyone was upset that we traded Herges and Jorge Nunez for Mota and Wilkin Ruan. I'm guessing the story said something about heart and soul.
The other great point in your article is the whole problem of certain pitchers only being allowed to pitch in certain situations. Most on this site are still proably chocking on Tracy's pitching decisions in the 8th inning on Saturday..there were so many wrong moves in that inning. But in fairness to to the new world of baseball, once you become a set-up man it seems that you can only pitch in a set-up/hold situation. Hence since the Dodgers were tied with the Angels going into the 8th on Saturday Yahncy could not pitch. Had they been up we probably would have seen him.
The definitation of a closer and save has become so solidified as a one inning position, it seems doubtful that any team with a great closer, the Braves being the exception are going to change the role of a great closer. I grew up in the era of Jim Brewer, Peronoski and they both often pitched 2-3 innings, and saves in the high 20's were considered great. Completly off topic, bullpen issues for many teams including the Dodgers would be minimized if we were only using 4 starting pitchers.
The 5th pitcher question on the Dodgers is a by product of having to trot out 5 pitchers.
I want to see your data. The more I look at these numbers -- especially with the large number of non-save situations -- the more I think my case is correct: Gagne is not as good a pitcher in non-save situations. The "small sample size" argument falls by the wayside.
However in 1974, Mike Marshall put in 208 innings and 106 games.
The last Dodger who pitched completely in relief (that I can find) who topped 100 innings in a season was Tom Niedenfuer in 1985.
Rogel McDowell got over 100 in a season he split between Philly and L.A.
Anyway, much like my perception as Gagne being a one inning guy was shattered when I looked at the numbers, my perception of Gagne as incapabable in non save situations is gone too.
With this is mind, seeing him pitch his usual 88.1 innings, despite missing his first month.
I disagree with your post about his first game this year, as you know, but in any case, this article isn't about that game.
In a perfect baseball world there wouldn't be these arbitrary divisions between "starters" and "relievers". They wouldn't need stats like wins or holds or saves. They'd all live in harmony as pitchers.(cue inspirational music)
I tried to think of classes of relievers and starters as mediocre, good, or great. I can't think of one that changed class when they moved around later in their career.
Eckersley and Smoltz (great as starters and closers)
Lowe and Kim (good as starters and closers)
Graves, Batista, Hermanson and Affeldt (mediocre as starters and closers)
If anything, the conversion of Gagne created this perception in MLB that there were these mediocre starting pitchers out there that would become great as relievers. But, every starter that's been converted since then has been a counter-example. It's possible Gagne is a special case, since there really still aren't enough data points to make a definitive case. On the other hand, I think it's much more likely that Gagne got significantly better as a pitcher, but that improvement was hidden by his move to the bullpen.
*Jose Mesa. Current struggles and Game 7 notwithstanding, he was a decent closer for a few years, while I only remember him as a mediocre starter.
*Byung-Hyun Kim: Mediocre starter, outstanding reliever...for a while. I remember Rob Neyer saying that Hillenbrand for Kim was highway robbery...for the Red Sox.
*Tom Gordon--remember him being a lot like Gagne as a starter: he'd roll for a few innings then give up the big inning.
We can't really draw a complete conclusion from this without the HR given up numbers. If they are also the same, then I think we're forced to draw the conclusion that Gagne being less effective in non-save situations has been nothing but dumb luck so far.
If the HR rate is higher in non-save situations, as I suspect it is, that would be a pretty obvious indication that Gagne is simply pitching to the score and challenging guys more often when the game isn't on the line.
Here are a couple of recollections culled from a poor memory.
As a starter, Gagne ALWAYS seemed to hit a wall and hit it hard, much like what's been happening to Weaver lately. A couple of spins through the lineup was all Gagne was good for. He'd either run out of gas or the other team would catch up to him or a combination of both. With more experience, maybe this would have changed, but it seemed like Gagne was never going to get over that proverbial hump.
Or maybe he needed another pitch?
If my memory serves (which it rarely does), when Gagne started he did not have that devastating split/change pitch he uses so effectively now. That's a pitch he seems to have perfected since going to the bullpen. (I'd love to see if other DT readers verify or refute this.) Now that he has better command of an incredible offspeed pitch, would this make him a more effective starter?
I don't know if this has any bearing on Jon's argument or not. Just throwing it out there.
In 2002, Kim was an great reliever. In 2003, Kim was good as both a reliever and a starter. His ERA as a starter was 3.38 and as a reliever was 3.22. After 2003, Kim was bad as both a reliever and a starter.
I hadn't remembered Gordon as a starter, and he is a good counter-example. Gordon was much better as a reliever than a starter. In 1997, his last and best year as a starter at age 29, he posted a 3.75 ERA with 25 of his 42 games coming as a starter. In 1998, he was a great reliever, with a 2.72 ERA, and has gone back and forth from good to great since then.
Rivera could be another counter-example. He had one bad year as a starter in 1996 at age 26, before becoming one of the most dominant closers in the game for going on 9 years.
One theory to explain this could be that pitchers with a small pitch repertoire do better in the bullpen. Rivera, Gordon, and Kim each only throw two quality pitches (fastball / cutter, fastball / curve, and fastball / slider respectively). Mesa and Gagne each have three quality pitches (fastball / split finger / slider and fastball / changeup / curve respectively).
"That's not to say that Gagne should be made a starter today, just that he didn't fail out of starting."
This is merely anecdotal and should be taken as such, but I have seen this be the case for Gagne. I remember last year when I was at a game at SBC, with the Dodgers up by about 3 runs, and Bonds was at the plate with no one on. So his run didn't matter. And Gagne just threw him fastball after fastball, obviously seeing if he could throw it by Bonds every time. And Bonds hit it out.
If we also accept the assumption that Gagne is more effective pitching 3 innings or less every couple of days (i.e., not starting every 4-5 days and trying to pitch 6 innings), then it seems like none of the roles you list are the best. It's probably better to use him whenever the game is on the line, from the 6th inning on. 2 on, 1 out in the 7th inning, heart of the lineup coming up, use Gagne. That kind of thing.
Jayson Werth finally hit a home run on his rehab stint. He's now hitting .317/.472/.390 in Vegas with just the one XBH, but is trending in a positive direction.
March 24, 2002
Gagne embraces role: Gagne didn't allow a run in 12 spring innings as a starter but doesn't mind being in the bullpen.
He was clocked at 97 mph during his perfect three-inning relief stint Friday against Montreal and would embrace a chance to be the closer.
Gagne's only experience as a closer came in 1995 for the Canadian national team. He pitched 12 scoreless innings, striking out 20 and allowing six hits.
"You know, I would love to be the closer," Gagne said. "I would love to. When you're in relief, you want to close. You're always the last guy off the field, you want to get the save for the team, you want to end the game. That's really important. And if I'm in relief, I would love to be there."
[For those of you who want to dig into the newspaper archives, try your local library. The Torrance Public Library has web access from home to Newsbank (an archive of 486 US newspapers), with articles going back to 1985/1986 for the LA Times/LA Daily News.]
Mark Loretta is having surgery on his thumb and will be out two months possibly for the season. Any bad news from SD is good news for us. Possible replacement options for the Padres include none other than Alex Cora...
Jayson Werth had his first extra base hit last night in Vegas - a solo shot in the 7th. As I understand it, his rehab assignment is over and he now must be activated or placed on the DL again.
Andy LaRoche is at it again in Vero Beach. Going 2 for 4 with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs last night, he is now hitting .361 (.398/.710) with 17 HRs. A mad pace, he is sure to be headed to Jacksonville soon. I am of the opinion that we should fast track him to Vegas, but then where does Nori play? Speaking of Nori, he is doing rather well. Is there such a big difference in AAA pitching that he could thrive there, or did he figure something out?
If there is an unsaid rule abour OT posts, I apologize. Somebody let me know if it is a no no.
I would say yes... as my poor memory serves Gagne threw mostly heat as a starter... I believe that the games that the opposing hitters got to him was because a) they had been through the lineup at least once, and b) Gagne would begin to leave the ball up.
Great post Jon; I hope that DePo is a regular "lurker" here... he would be well served to Think Outside the Boxscore TM on the usage of both Game Over and Ghame Over: I think the Dodgers could experiment with a 7-8-9th inning platoon of those 2 in close games... use the rest of the bullpen for games that we further ahead/behind. In the latter case, either Game or Ghame could be brought in the 8 2/3th or 9th if the score gets close in our favor.
Anyway, I loved the post and it's argument for not being so obtuse in defining roles for our best pitcher.
Does any team in the league go with 4 and a beefy bullpen? I know we're not the only ones with a weak rotatation.... how about stats on this approach? what would you use to evaluate fairly? I mean to determine work vs overwork on both the starters and the pen?
efficiently using what pitching we have is a way bigger deal to this team than anything we do with batting order, imo
Jim Gott began as a starter, not sure if he was better as a reliever though.
Rick Honeycutt was good as a reliever and as a starter.
Latroy Hawkins was awful as a starter, but has been lights out as a set-up guy.
Isringhausen was another average starter when he came up, looks a lot like Gagne's story.
Derek Lowe has obviously done both, but I would say the jury is still out on whether he's as good a starter as a closer.
2002:
Non-save: 2 HRs in 22 1/3 IP for a .79 HR/9
Save: 4 HRs in 60 IP for a .6 HR/9
2003:
Non-save: 2 HRs in 25 2/3 IP for a .7 HR/9
Save: 0 HRs in 57 IP for a 0 HR/9
2004:
Non-save: 1 HR in 33 IP for a .27 HR/9
Save: 4 HRs in 52.7 IP for a .68 HR/9
2005:
Non-save: 2 HRs in 4IP for a 4.5 HR/9
Save: 0 HRs in 0 IP
Overall, 2002-2005:
Non-save: 7 HRs in 84 2/3rd innings for a .74 HR/9
Save: 8 HRs in 169 2/3rd innings for a .42 HR/9
But, the all the numbers involved are so small, that if you don't include the 2 HRs coming back from rehab this year it makes a huge difference:
2002-2004:
Non-save: 5 HRs in 80 2/3rd innings for a .56 HR/9
Save: 8 HRs in 169 2/3rd innings for a .42 HR/9
In their last four games, the Dodgers as a team have two home runs.
LaRoche now leads all of professional baseball in home runs this year (17).
Feeling better but still sick. Next post will be the game chat thread tonight.
Dave Righetti;
2)Mediocre young starters become good relievers;
John Wetteland
Goose Gossage
Terry Forster
3)Terrible reliever becomes good starter;
Charlie Hough
Hawkins was not great as a reliever until 2002, which was 2 years after he was converted from a starter. Also, his last year as a starter came at age 26. The combination of those points makes me think that legitimate pitching improvement played a role. Though, even in the intervening years of 2000 and 2001, Hawkins was still better as a reliever than he had been as a starter, he just hadn't fully hit his stride. Also, related to my secondary theory, ESPN has Hawkins listed as having two quality pitches (fastball / curve).
Isringhausen seems very similar to Gagne. They both pitched exceptionally well in AAA as starters. They both were converted to closers prior to their prime, based on mediocre starting performance in the majors. And, they both have a breadth of quality pitches.
I'll agree that the jury is still out on Lowe. On the other hand, his first season as a starter was arguably better than any of his seasons as a closer.
About half of the converted starters spent time as starters during their expected peak performance years. Honeycutt (34), Eckersley (32), Smoltz (34), Gordon (30), Batista (34) and Hermanson (32) were 30 or over before being converted to closers. Lowe and Graves were both converted from a closer to a starter at age 29, but Graves was immediately converted back. When evaluating the conversion from starter to closer, this group is probably the best to work from, since performance levels were pretty established at the time of conversion.
At the time of their conversion, Gott (27), Mesa (28), Rivera (26), Isringhausen (27), Hawkins (28), Gagne (26), and Affeldt (24) were likely still developing as pitchers.
Byung Hung Kim is a strange case. He's been across the spectrum as a starter and a reliever and he's still only 26. I now understand why the Rockies were willing to take a flyer on him.
I believe Billy Wagner was also a very good starter before they made him a closer in Houston. I don't think he had alot of starts, but I remember him mowing down the Dodgers as a starter in his rookie year.
I would think that a starter would need a more variety of pitches than a closer would need. Many good closers seem to get by on fastball/slider or fastball/splitter. I'm not sure how many arrows Gagne has in his pitching quiver.
vr
Xei
vr
Xei
Hough (34) was converted (back) to a starter, and a good one. I don't think he was terrible as a reliever though. His two bad years (79/80) as a reliever were bounded by a whole lot of good years (72-77 and 81).
I wonder if this dataset is getting large enough to analyze in order to prove or debunk the Starter vs. Reliever distinction?
Gagne's pitch repertoire is a great fastball (both two-seam and four-seam), a good curve (both hard and soft), and an excellent vulcan changeup (which acts a lot like a split finger).
You might want to re-check your memory regarding Billy Wagner. He's never started a game in the major leagues.
*And the best relievers do seem to be 2-pitch guys, but this probably reflects the fact that two-pitch guys are less successful as starters than any inherent advantage. The worst combination of two-pitches in a closer seems to be fastball/forkball--as a mariners co-fan (bias alert) I have agonized as Mike Schooler (?), Bobby Ayala & Kaz Sasaki all shot to prominence mixing wicked heat and nasty splitters. After about a season and a half, hitters eventually learn to wait on counts and force them to throw the fork for strikes, after which point batters get walked until invariably the one dead-duck splitter that doesn't sink gets thrown and gets the stitches knocked off of it. Which proves that ML hitters are much faster learners than the M's organization.
*Bill Swift was an OK starter who turned into an incredible DP specialist in the bullpen, then went to the Giants and became a great starter for about a year and a half.
*Guys who defy categorization here: Alvarez, Wakefield, Dreifort, Lowe, Chacon, Bueller, Bueller...?
vr
Xei
Bert Blyleven.
pwned!
[burns with shame]
vr
Xei
Yes, it was Mr Cook. I read it in the Alan Schwarz's book The Numbers Game... an excellent read about the history of baseball stats, I highly recommend it.
Here is a chat transcript from Schwarz regarding this topic on one of the ESPN boards.
Mike (miami): what are your thoughts on Cook's ideas for starting a relief pitcher and having sluggers bat first? The first one is interesting, the sluggers hitting first seems a bit stupid, yes, they may get more AB's.. but i think it will hurt the team as a whole throughout the game.... your thoughts?
SportsNation Alan Schwarz: Two things -- I was asked by a GM last week what I thought the next great innovation in baseball was going to be, and I said that someone is going to come along and figure out a FAR better way of deploying starting pitchers, whether in a 4-man, 8-man (4 IP each) or whatever rotation. The five-man is not the most efficient way of using $6 million arms....As for the batting order, most studies I've seen have determined that it matters a lot less than people assume. Casey Stengel used to bat Bob Cerv or Elston Howard leadoff sometimes. Bobby Bragan did the same thing with the '50s Pirates and '60s Braves. In general, since I don't think it matters a whole lot, no manager will want to bother with the uninformed hullaballoo that would undoubtedly follow.
--
vr, Xei
http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/08/batting-barry-first.html
vr, Xei
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=240705119
And there are pages and pages of very dreary looking numbers.
http://www.baseball1.com/
I have it on our system and wrote a little program to pull out pitchers who spent some time as starters and relievers. Then I was just glancing through them to find interesting ones.
I agree with your assessment, it's usually impossible to distinguish between a leap in overall effectiveness, and the change from starter to reliever.
I think Righetti was a very good starter, and then remained a very good reliever. His ERA as a starter and reliever is about the same (actually his starter ERA is a bit lower, but it's real close).
#40 -- Bill Swift is pretty interesting. He was mediocre for a few years as a starter. Then he moved to the bullpen for two years and was awesome, then moved back to the rotation and was awesome again. Then he was mediocre again after a couple of years. So wouldn't this suggest that he was just mediocre, got better and had a real high peak, then dropped off again? Doesn't seem to have any relationship to being a starter or reliever.
Julian Tavares was pretty good as a reliever, then pretty awful as a starter, then good again as a reliever. That's a pretty nice example of a guy who did much better as a reliever, because his bad years as a starter were right in the middle of his career.
http://tinyurl.com/9xqf6
I wonder how this affects his future.
As far as Tavarez, perhaps he wasn't able to keep enough junk on his cap to go multiple innings? :)
Though his ERA was better as a reliever (99 & 00) before he became a starter (01 & 02), his peripherals (K/9, HR/9, K/BB) didn't really improve until he became a reliever again in 2003. At that point, he stopped walking people and stopped giving up HRs. He may have just been a late bloomer at age 30.
http://tinyurl.com/7lz82
Best quote in the article is Dick Williams explaining Rollie Fingers failure as a starter and success as a reliever: "When he had to think about it, he was his own worst enemy. But when he didn't know he was going to pitch, he was great."
#50: I think Swift was one of these guys who only really gets motivated by failure. The M's letting him go to the Giants after converting him to relief really seemed to cheese him off. My schadenfreude spidey-sense is praying for a similar effect on Carlos Guillen before too long. Adam M:Carlos Guillen::Bob Timmermann:Russ Ortiz
franklin: are you named for the puppet on "Arrested Development"? In that case, mad props, and..."Hey, Franklin!" Otherwise, sorry for confusing the hell out of you.
you know me, just tryin to break down racial barriers among the Dodger faithful.
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