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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Nomonia, Ten Years Later
2005-06-29 11:00
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Today's 12:10 p.m. Game

* * *

Speaking of good months of June, there was Hideo Nomo 10 years ago ...

6 games
50 1/3 innings (8 1/3 innings per game)
25 hits
7 runs
5 earned runs
16 walks
60 strikeouts
6-0 record
0.89 ERA

He finished the month with 50 strikeouts in his final four games - breaking Sandy Koufax's team record - and two consecutive 13-strikeout shutouts.

For those of you who can't remember or fathom how Nomonia got started, this kinda helped.

(Actually, they called it Nomomania, but I could never understand why they weren't clever enough to call it Nomonia.)

* * *

J.D. Drew is playing hurt. Repeat. J.D. Drew is playing hurt.

And he's 3 for 4 with four walks, and he's making running catches in center field.

So for those commenters who decided Drew had no heart or leadership skills because he went from unable to pinch hit Sunday to 100 percent Monday, guess what. That's not what happened.

According to the Daily News, with a day game today following a night game, Drew may need to rest again. Why? Because he has been playing hurt.

Drew might not have been blessed with the greatest body tissue or most lively personality, but it's hard to conclude that the guy isn't here to play.

* * *

I care less about dropping slumping Cesar Izturis from the leadoff spot than I care about knowing why Jim Tracy, who never met a maneuver he didn't like, doesn't seem to care to.

In other words, Izturis' slump plays into the Dodger slump, but I don't think his batting slot does. For 8 2/3 innings, he's the No. 9 hitter in the lineup.

But considering that Izturis was a borderline choice to bat leadoff way back when, I'm dispassionately interested in why Tracy hasn't budged him from the top. (I doubt Tracy has any interest in artificially boosting Izturis' trade value; he'd probably weep if Izturis went away.)

It wouldn't shock me to see Tracy drop Izturis down if the slump continues once the calendar turns to July. He's almost waited as long on dropping Izturis as he waited to drop Shawn Green in 2004.

* * *

Update: Izturis leads off, Drew bats third, Saenz fifth, Ross seventh and Rose eighth in today's lineup. Choi sits.

Comments (391)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-06-29 11:26:29
1.   the OZ
I can imagine an interchange like this in Tracy's office before the game today:

Reporter: "Izturis is slumping badly and he hit into two double-plays last night. Have you considered adjusting his spot in the lineup until he gets back on track?"

Tracy: "Would I consider moving him? NO, we need his glove at the top of the order."

2005-06-29 11:31:17
2.   JeffinTokyo
What memories. I was at Candlestick in 95 when Nomo pitched a one-hitter. The only hit was an infield single by Royce Clayton. The stadium was filled with Japanese tourists. For the first few innings, and then again near the end, on every pitch, the stadium was alight with camera flashes. It was really amazing.

On the other hand, I was also at a Nomo start at Wrigley Field in 98 when he was knocked out of the box in the second inning. I think the Dodgers lost 7-1 to Kerry Wood. The legendary Trenidad Hubbard hit a solo blast to save a shutout. As an interesting side note, Wood had only one strikeout in this game (Todd Zeile, I believe). What makes it interesting is the fact that he had his epic 20-strikeout game in his next start.

I want to close by saying that I am disturbed by the trade Cesar talk. I am disturbed because the trade talk is based on the fact that he is currently over-valued in the market. In other words, my favorite current Dodger is seen by other Dodger fans as nothing more than an overpriced stock to be dumped before his price crashes.

2005-06-29 11:46:00
3.   rageon
I was wondering a while ago what it is about Izturis that has changed during his slump. I haven't seen anyone else do this, so I finally took the time to check it out last night. If my numbers are wrong, forgive me, it was 3am and studying for the bar has replaced my math abilities with obscure legal jargon.

Numbers are broken down as April, May, June

K/PA: .131, .071, .122
BB/PA: .047, .071,
Non-HR hits: 33, 41, 8
Balls in play: 87, 108, 68
% in play: .813, .857, .829
BABIP: .379, .380, .118
AVG: .333, .350, .103

A couple observations:
- strikeout rates are similiar to his April numbers
- walk rates are almost identical with April
- the percentage of balls put in play is in line with what he did in April and May
- his batting average has been between 87% and 92% of his avg of balls in play for all three months
- the obvious number that sticks out is the June BABIP of only .118

Let me say that I understand that BABIP is more relevant for elavuating pitchers than hitters, but still, that's a horribly low number. I don't have the benefit of watching many games, so I can't tell if Izturis is making contact incredibly weakly or if he's just very unlucky of late. I'm sure those of you how get to watch more than 3 games a month could lend some insight. But based on numbers alone, I'd venture to guess that he's had some bad luck to go along with his inevitably regression to the mean that we all knew was coming after hitting ~.340 for 2 months.

Any thoughts?

2005-06-29 11:46:37
4.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 2

My favorite Dodger was and still is Hideo Nomo. My most painful memory as a Dodger fan is seeing him booed by the home crowd when he pitched against the Yankes at Chavez Ravine last season. If it wasn't for the fact that I share some of Nomo's stoicism, I probably would have bawled like a baby. That being said, I in retrospect think Tracy made an obvious mistake in sticking with him for so long.

My own opinion is that we will always have the memories that made our current "favorite" Dodger, but a GM's job is to plan for the future. Izzy has been a joy to watch, but if a good trade comes up, then we should trade him. If not, then we should stick with him.

Success in baseball is always a fleeting thing, and players will naturally move on--the only exceptions in my view to this are Gagne and Bradley. Gagne, assuming he comes back healthy, is a true "franchise player," while Milton's personal demons make his hoped-for success in a Dodger uniform something that transcends baseball.

WWSH

2005-06-29 11:46:44
5.   the OZ
...but a good-fielding, switch-hitting overpriced stock!
2005-06-29 11:46:44
6.   fanerman91
This seems to be the most important game of the season thus far.
2005-06-29 11:47:57
7.   fanerman91
"Is he a .350 hitter? I don't know," Tracy said. "Do you expect him to be? No. Will he get hot again? Yeah."

Is that vintage Tracy? I think so.

2005-06-29 11:52:27
8.   gcrl
#2 - i was at that dodger/cubbie game as well. we were near the dodger bullpen where nomo was warming up, throwing lollipops. then wood went out in the top of the first and threw bb's. quite a contrast. other memories from that game: wood's first ml win and great relief from darren dreifort (seriously).

on the flip side, i was at the home opener at dodger stadium in 96, when nomo outdueled tom glavine and pitched a shutout beating the braves 1-0. he walked more than hit safely against him, but it was still a great feat to behold.

2005-06-29 11:52:35
9.   Monterey Chris
#3

Keep plugging away on bar studies. If you are prepared, the test is not all that hard. The key, in my opinion, is the daily, steady preparation (which it sounds like you are doing).

And Go Dodgers

2005-06-29 11:53:06
10.   JeffinTokyo
7. Did I pull my hair out when I read this? Yes I did. Would I pull more hair if I hadn't cut it so short last week? Yes, I would?

I have to admit that a big part of my anti-Tracy bias is the fact that he comes across as such a dweeb. I wonder if the players see him the same way.

2005-06-29 11:55:54
11.   ddger
How come Ross is batting 7th with his .100 BA. Isn't Repo and his .185 better choice or is Tracy saving Repko for defense.
2005-06-29 11:56:05
12.   Steve
rage -- I can't remember which midwestern state you are taking the Bar in. Whatever state it is, do you have "performance tests?"
2005-06-29 11:56:32
13.   the OZ
3- thanks for looking that stuff up.

Because Izturis rarely hits the ball to the wall, it limits the areas to which the ball can safely land for a hit. Even if he Uses the Whole Field, he's only reaching, say, 85% of the available real estate in which to land a line drive or fly ball.

Basically, any fly ball Izturis hits is an out. Guys like Drew and Kent can hit fly ball singles and doubles because the outfield has to play them deeper, and they'll knock a couple off the wall.

Cesar isn't particularly fast, so his GB/hit ratio is going to be a little lower than average, since he's not going to leg out more infield hits than a speedy batter, but he won't scorch too many past the first baseman either like JD Drew might because he doesn't hit the ball too hard.

His batting average is tied almost solely into his ability to hit line drives that fall in. I'd be curious to see if he's hit more fly balls during his slump than during his hot streak. Unfortunately, he refuses to take walks so his OBP is tied to his line-drive hitting as well.

That's my best guess as to his slump - he has less margin for error than a more powerful or patient hitter.

2005-06-29 11:56:41
14.   scareduck
Jon -- it wasn't called "Nomonia" because that reads like "pneumonia". You're looking more at "Nomania".
2005-06-29 11:57:33
15.   ddger
I guess Tracy is not expecting any offense from 7th thru 1st in our lineup today so we need to get all our offense only half of our batters. Maybe Weaver will throw a shutout. He is pitching for new contract.
2005-06-29 11:57:49
16.   JeffinTokyo
8. gcrl, my fiance (now wife) and I scalped and were sitting in nice seats between home and third. I can't remember what we paid, but not being rich, I'm sure it wasn't that much.

If Nomo keeps winning, he is bound to get traded to a contender before this year is over.

2005-06-29 11:58:45
17.   Jon Weisman
14 - I know exactly what it reads like. That's intentional. You catch Nomonia. Nomonia's gonna get you.

No one ever called it Nomania.

2005-06-29 11:58:52
18.   scareduck
3: if you think Gagne is a franchise player, wait until he comes back and is unsuccessful. The pressure to perform will be staggering. If he blows several games with "Welcome to the Jungle" still ringing in the fans' ears, he'll start getting hell very, very quickly.
2005-06-29 11:59:14
19.   bigcpa
Anyone notice the A's lately? They've played .700 ball for a month now and caught us at 36 wins.

Oakland
24-38 start
12-2 since
36-40 overall

LA
12-2 start
24-39 since
36-41 overall

2005-06-29 12:00:29
20.   Im So Blue
3, 13:
From my recollection of Izzy's balls in play this year, I'd say that he's been hitting more weak grounders and weak fly balls, rather than line drives. Perhaps the opposition is positioning themselves better to field his balls in play
2005-06-29 12:01:21
21.   Jon Weisman
I've been noticing the A's all year. I never gave up on them. But I didn't expect the Angels to be above .600
2005-06-29 12:02:32
22.   Steve
One memorable Nomo experience for me was a game against the Pirates where he struck out a dozen, the ballpark was going appropriately crazy, then left the game with a 2-0 lead and the bullpen conspired to blow up and take the loss.

I liked Hideo Nomo very much. I thought last year was sad, and unfair, in the sense that he should have been allowed to go on the DL in peace.

2005-06-29 12:03:48
23.   ddger
I wonder how many games it will take to win NL West. Has any team won their division with less than 90 wins.
2005-06-29 12:03:55
24.   Jon Weisman
What Tracy did with Nomo last year was perhaps, after all we've witnessed, his biggest sin as manager.
2005-06-29 12:04:13
25.   Steve
By the way, I was just notified that some newspaper is reporting the Yankees are talking about trading Gary Sheffield to the Mets for Mike Cameron and Miguel Cairo. We're trying to figure out what the Yankees get out of that.
2005-06-29 12:04:23
26.   Jon Weisman
The fans who booed Nomo, by the way, were just as bad.
2005-06-29 12:05:18
27.   ddger
24. Either Tracy is too loyal to a fault or he's not brave enough to make a change for better. Tracy would rather wait till it's totally hopeless before he makes any change.
2005-06-29 12:05:23
28.   JJoeScott
I'd like to think that if Tracy had a better leadoff choice, that he would put someone else there. I just don't think there is one right now, save for maybe Perez.

What bugs me about Drew: He scores the first run last night, then fires himself up by slowly walking, expression-less, back to the dugout. No fire in that belly, playing hurt or not.

2005-06-29 12:05:39
29.   rageon
Steve - I'm from North Dakota, but I'm taking the bar for Minnesota. Yes, 1/4 of it is the multistate performance test. Strangely enough, that's what I feel most confident about. I did clinic my entire 2nd and 3rd years, and was student director of it on top of that, so while I missed out on 15 credits of classes, I got a lot of experience with practical writing.
2005-06-29 12:05:50
30.   JeffinTokyo
As much as I like Cesar, I would be the first to admit that he is not a leadoff hitter.

I was watching the Yankees and Orioles on NHK yesterday. Michael Kay, the Yankee announcer was talking about what Oriole manager Lee Mazilli said when he was asked about moving down Sosa in the lineup. Maxilli replied that he wasn't moving Sosa down, he was just moving batters around to mix things up. Mazilli's point was that it was not a demotion for Sosa, it was just a realignment that would hopefully break a slump.

So, if Sosa can deal with batting 6th, I'm sure Cesar can handle batting 8th.

2005-06-29 12:06:35
31.   ddger
Dodgers need to get an outfielder with some power before trading deadline if they plan on staying in this race. I think we can count out Bradley. He has been injury prone most of this career anyway so we can't count on him even next year.
2005-06-29 12:06:50
32.   JJoeScott
#25 - NY Post reported it, and the reporter was interview on Cowherd's show this morning. Highlights: Yankees need a defensive overall, the pitchers are pitching scared, it worked for the Red Sox last year, and Sheffield is already moaning about his free agent year.
2005-06-29 12:07:52
33.   JJoeScott
Re: #32 -- That's "defensive OVERHAUL." Typo.
2005-06-29 12:09:03
34.   ddger
Maybe Tracy doesn't want to move Izzy to 8th because he will be the starting SS on Allstar game and it would look foolish with all the marketing the dodgers are doing to get him selected. Also, maybe Tracy fears that it might hurt Izzy's confidence rest of the season.
2005-06-29 12:11:45
35.   Steve
California has two three-hour performance tests, which are similar to, but not, the MPT. Not much trouble. Just boring. Hard to focus on practicing them.

They get defense. Yeah, that's one of the few teams I would admit some defense would make sense.

Nomo was a victim. Choi, that was horrible.

2005-06-29 12:12:46
36.   JeffinTokyo
I'd flip flop Perez with Cesar. Then take advantage of Cesar's ability to make contact by hitting and running with a vengeance.
2005-06-29 12:12:54
37.   JJoeScott
#34 - Hadn't thought of that. Great point. No doubt Sitrick & Co. authored a memo to Jim Tracy (cc: F. McCourt) regarding the lineup.
2005-06-29 12:13:08
38.   Landonkk
3:
My own personal observation from watching the games is that Izzy has seemingly forgotten how to go the other way. A lot of his hits from the left side early in the season were solid line drives over third. It seems like he is trying to pull the ball too much now. (Batting LH anyway). I think this may be due to the fact that the opposing defens had really started shifting around to take those oppo hits saway from him. His slump could be from his attempt to keep the OF 'honest' but unable to pull the ball on a line.
2005-06-29 12:13:24
39.   Steve
34 -- With a .095 average in June and Drew's lack of leadership sapping Izzy's confidence already, I can't imagine there would be any left.
2005-06-29 12:14:20
40.   Steve
Blum scrappily hustles from the plate after strikeouts. Plaschke clucks approvingly.
2005-06-29 12:14:24
41.   Benaiah
31 - From what I understand, being injury prone is largely due to body type. However, a freak injury to one of your fingers isn't exactly a symptom of that type of injury proneness. This one is just bad luck I think.
2005-06-29 12:15:16
42.   fanerman91
35,
What was that last sentence in reference to?
2005-06-29 12:15:25
43.   ddger
We must have one of the worst records for #1 and #2 starting pitchers with Penny (3-5) and Lowe (5-8). None of our starting pitchers are above .500 except Houlton. Probably no one expected this.
2005-06-29 12:15:37
44.   Monterey Chris
My computer shows that the Padres did not score in the 1st...is that a computer error?
2005-06-29 12:17:42
45.   Steve
42 -- Deity of Your Choice, that was horrible.
2005-06-29 12:18:33
46.   MSarg29
#34 - you beat me to the punch. Tracy has been promoting IZ pretty hard for the all-star game. He's not going to demote him before the vote is over. He may not demote him anyway, but he surely won't do it before the vote.
2005-06-29 12:20:27
47.   Benaiah
I switched Gameday off the top for a second and somehow Izturis's AB wasn't over when I got back. 7 pitches ending in a ground out is alot better then the 1 pitch Izzy has been preferring lately.
2005-06-29 12:20:41
48.   bigcpa
Another team not afraid to play the DFA card... Cubs designated RHP Joe Borowski for assignment.
2005-06-29 12:20:43
49.   Steve
46 et al -- That's right. I hadn't thought of that. Not a very good reason, but that's the reason.
2005-06-29 12:20:44
50.   Sam DC
Can I say a mini "Hail Cesar" for the 7 pitch at bat? Baby steps, baby steps.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-06-29 12:21:40
51.   Sam DC
Can I say a mini "Hail Cesar" for the 7 pitch at bat? Baby steps, baby steps.
2005-06-29 12:22:27
52.   Sam DC
Ummm . . . Not only did I submit that comment only once, but I did so eons ago, right when the AB ended. Arneson, get in here!
2005-06-29 12:23:02
53.   Christina
Well, we sure went down quietly in the first...but at least our pitcher took fewer pitches than theirs did! Ha!

Yes, must get the small joys where I can...

Someone mentioned the As upthread. The As of May are basically the Dodgers of now - they were hit incredibly hard by injuries that month. Now their guys are off the DL, and Kendall's adjusted to the AL, and boom, here you have what we're seeing now.

So I still have hope for the Dodgers this year.

2005-06-29 12:23:36
54.   ddger
46. I think that might be Tracy's problem. He worries so much about a player's physic and confidence and he wants to be liked by everyone. It effects logical thinking. He needs to step up as manager and take some actions if things aren't going well instead of being so passive and hoping that everything will work out.
2005-06-29 12:24:46
55.   Steve
Haha -- stupid Padres.
2005-06-29 12:26:08
56.   fanerman91
cbs.sportsline.com says...

Fick flied into double play right, Giles out at third.

2005-06-29 12:26:29
57.   Sam DC
What's crazy to me is that the mlb.com article on the Yankees/Mets talks is headlined "Yankees hoping to add more offense." Say what you want about Sheffield, trading him for virtually anyone, let alone Cameron and Cairo, can hardly be said to be hunting for more offense. Am I missing something?
2005-06-29 12:26:40
58.   JJoeScott
=========================================
MEMO

TO: J. Tracy

FR: Sitrick & Co.

CC: F. McCount, P. DePodesta

RE: All-Star Game Marketing

Jim,

You may be aware that the Anaheim team is likely to have several players make the All-Star Team. We advise that in order for the Dodgers to maintain their position as the primary Los Angeles team, you must ensure that the Dodgers also have All-Star players.

Following is a list of mandated actions that you must implement to ensure this activity.

1. Keep Mr. Izturis in the leadoff position. This will ensure that his name is atop the box scores in newspapers nationwide, as well as on the ESPN highlight show.

2. Refer to Mr. Izturis as an the top All-Star shortstop candidate in all media interviews. Remember: Repeating the primary
message often enough will make it so in the minds of the feeble-minded baseball fans.

3. Link Mr. Izturis' candidacy with that of Mr. Kent.

4. Have Mr. Izturis bunt to protect his batting average. Note: When reporters ask you about his buniting, deny that you have ordered him to do so.

==============================================

2005-06-29 12:29:28
59.   Langhorne
Thanks for the double Mr. Nady.
2005-06-29 12:29:45
60.   JeffinTokyo
Nice play Cody! Nice Play Xavier!

On the most part I am a convert to statistical analysis, but I think that a manager should be measured by more than just his ability to properly play the percentages. I believe that an underrated role of a manager is to motivate the most out of his players, whomever they may be.

As an outside observer, it appears that Tracy is failing miserably in this area.

When I was on the Frosh-Soph team as a Freshman at Kennedy High (Orange County), we were mired in a deep slump. To mix things up, our manager picked the lineup by drawing names out of a hat. Our lineup was funky as can be. Studs batting 7th, bench warmers (me) batting lead off, etc. We went into the game loose as geese. We ended up winning going away.

This is like back in the days when Lasorda would try to bust slumps by pitching BP or coaching 3rd base. Maybe some of you feel such antics are sally and worthless, but I believe that keeping a ballclub/office loose raises morale and, ultimately, performance.

2005-06-29 12:29:57
61.   Steve
57 -- That's cracking me up
58 -- That's cracking me up, except you forgot that you also needed to CC to D. McCourt and J. McCourt

Meanwhile, the Padres give us a gift double.

2005-06-29 12:30:12
62.   Christina
54 - I agree. Plus, some people actually do better upon hearing some negative criticism rather than being babied along.

I remember as a junior in high school, I was told by my English teacher that she wouldn't accept mediocre work from me any longer, after I turned in a paper that would have been an A if anyone else in the class had turned it in, but because it was me, she gave me a B. I was upset about it for about five seconds, thought about it, realized she was right, and started doing my best instead of coasting along. It was exactly the kick in the ass I needed.

Of course, when I passed that story around, the next year a friend's parent tried to include it in a letter to the school board as part of a general rant about the pressure on students due to homework loads, too many tests, etc. I told the mother I wasn't on board with the "meanie teacher" angle she was trying to take, and she had to delete the anecdote from her letter.

Uh, baseball. Hooray for Kent, now please do something other than K, Olmedo!

2005-06-29 12:30:45
63.   Benaiah
Steve, your vitriol regarding Weaver seems to have lost some of its acid. Is this because he has returned to form or have you just moved on?
2005-06-29 12:31:39
64.   ddger
58. GREAT PIECE except typo "McCourt". Now it makes perfect sense why Izzy is still batting leadoff. This isn't Tracy's decision but either Depo or McCourt's.
2005-06-29 12:33:32
65.   Steve
63 -- There is a reason I have not addressed this subject, and it rhymes with "Minx." I recognize the events of the last month.
2005-06-29 12:34:50
66.   Christina
A run! A run!
2005-06-29 12:35:13
67.   Sam DC
Well, he did Christina.

Maybe the Dodgers should auction off the right to set the starting batting order (presumably, setting the lineup would be too much for anyone to take) to Charity for a game. Better yet, to make it "fair," get both teams in the same game to do it, then have a competition between when them which can find the craziest fan willing to pay the most for the power. Would've been perfect for Dodgers/Angels.

2005-06-29 12:35:50
68.   db1022
#28 - I'm calling shenanigans on you. Did Green or Beltre ever do anything that showed emotion on the field (tossing batting gloves to 12 year old girls doesn't count)?

That's the way some people play. Don't count it against them. It's called "being a professional" when you want to positively spin it.

2005-06-29 12:38:15
69.   Sam DC
BTW, my 67 referred up to 62, not to 66 (which makes no sense). Spent too long spitting out my silly lineup riff.
2005-06-29 12:38:23
70.   Benaiah
65 - I firmly believe that this is the real Weaver. He is an innings eater and a quality start machine, but avoid high pressure situations at all cost because he deals with pressure like Buster deals with bullies on Arrested Development.
2005-06-29 12:42:13
71.   Steve
70 -- I don't at all mind being wrong. But you'll have to forgive me if in this case if I don't admit it -- I'm afraid that as soon as I do, the rug will get pulled.
2005-06-29 12:43:40
72.   Monterey Chris
71--So there will never be a "Keep Jim Tracy" website?
2005-06-29 12:43:45
73.   ddger
64. We must be keeping Erickson because he is just a nice guy in the clubhouse and he adds so much for our chemistry. At least he can be our punching bag for all the dodger's frustration this year.
2005-06-29 12:44:35
74.   Benaiah
71 - I wasn't trying to call you out, Weaver has been good but it isn't like he has a Hershiser scoreless innings streak going. I can't remember who proposed the dominant start stat but I imagine that Weaver's DS/QS ratio would be very low.
2005-06-29 12:44:48
75.   Steve
72 -- We came 24 hours from changing it.
2005-06-29 12:46:59
76.   Christina
75 - when was that?
2005-06-29 12:47:52
77.   Steve
74 -- And it's not at all clear, at this point, that Weaver has proven anybody wrong. Our long Izturis nightmare should suggest caution at making conclusions over four decent starts. I just hope he has a dozen more in him.
2005-06-29 12:50:14
78.   Icaros
Now catchers are stealing off of us.
2005-06-29 12:50:38
79.   Benaiah
How do you single on an infield pop up? And how do we let Ojeda steal second? Isn't that like letting Saenz steal a base?
2005-06-29 12:51:23
80.   Icaros
LA is winning the pitch count battle.
2005-06-29 12:52:19
81.   Icaros
Izturis is a black hole between Weaver and Perez!
2005-06-29 12:52:27
82.   db1022
#73 - Can't we just make him a coach or something then? Make him Lasorda's assistant.
2005-06-29 12:52:59
83.   Steve
76 -- Oh man. This is like ancient history.

As much as I dislike Tracy, Plaschke and Simers were really starting to far outstrip Tracy as far as my blind rage. Plus, my partner in crime, Jerry, has always hated the name and the inherent limitations of it. He is not as confrontational. So the idea was to look more broadly.

But Tracy started doing the stupid nonsense again - letting Perez bat in Colorado, etc. The last straw was his misuse of Weaver in May, which would have been misuse had it been Josh Beckett, much less Jeff Weaver. Jerry and I had decided on some other name, and then I can't remember whether it was the Arizona game where Tracy left Weaver in to die, or the Braves game where Tracy left Weaver in to give up the Grand Slam, but I e-mailed Jerry and told him the name would change when hell froze over.

2005-06-29 12:55:03
84.   bokonon42
79- The popup left the infield, but not by much. Saenz tried to go Willie Mays on it, and it hit him in the foot, I think. Ojeda stole on the catcher, there. The through was on the SS side of the bag. Never thought I'd say this, but Philips would have nailed him.
2005-06-29 12:58:19
85.   fanerman91
At least we're working the count. Little things make big differences, or can start them at least.
2005-06-29 12:58:35
86.   Icaros
Great AB for Perez.
2005-06-29 12:59:06
87.   Steve
Perez has to wave off Jim Lett's Glenn Hoffman-like windmill. Nice move.
2005-06-29 12:59:26
88.   Sam DC
"Saenz tried to go Willie Mays on it, and it hit him in the foot, I think."

Man, can't tell if I am really sorry or really glad I missed that.

Steve -- didn't you add quotation marks around the name for a while while the issue was under submission, sort of suggesting it was a statement made at some point, rather than a necessarily ongoing mission?

2005-06-29 13:00:19
89.   bokonon42
Oops. Throw, not through.
2005-06-29 13:02:31
90.   Steve
88 -- That's right. We called that the "Weisman option" because that's how Jon put us on his links.

I was very hopeful that things this year might be different. Probably naively so.

Kent scrappily goes sliding into first! Shades of Alex Cora!

2005-06-29 13:03:33
91.   Christina
I'm following along on Sportsline...

How exactly is it that, with guys on first and second, Kent can hit an infield single and the infield can't get anyone out?? Not that I'm complaining or anything, but how did that happen?

2005-06-29 13:03:47
92.   Monterey Chris
Kent is back over .300
2005-06-29 13:05:02
93.   Monterey Chris
91--

With full count and 2 outs, the only shot would be at 1st.

2005-06-29 13:05:55
94.   Benaiah
92 - Kent had a slump earlier this season but worked through it and came back with a vengence. Izturis could maybe use him as a role model.
2005-06-29 13:06:14
95.   Langhorne
It's never, ever right to slide into first.
2005-06-29 13:07:49
96.   Steve
91 -- The third baseman dove for the ground ball in the hole and did not grab it cleanly. The only play was at first, where Jeff Kent dove into the bag, making it good that Bob is on vacation.
2005-06-29 13:07:53
97.   Icaros
Kent had a slump earlier this season but worked through it and came back with a vengence. Izturis could maybe use him as a role model.

Would it be too much to ask that Izturis be inspired by Kent's ability to hit for power and even take a walk from time to time?

2005-06-29 13:08:08
98.   Christina
Should I be happy that Olmedo's at least making contact and flying out instead of King?
2005-06-29 13:08:31
99.   Icaros
Commence meltdown.
2005-06-29 13:08:58
100.   ddger
95. Agree. I still don't know why players slide into 1st when I think it slows them down. Also, you can run past 1st anyway and there's always injury factor when sliding. Maybe, it's just instincts or if the throw is off, then it'll be harder to tag.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-06-29 13:09:15
101.   Benaiah
Weaver gets the 0-2 advantage so he does a HBP to get Blum out of the jam. I realize that you should try and get them to chase out of the zone on 0-2 but come on!
2005-06-29 13:10:10
102.   fanerman91
Like King Choi you mean?

Also... 1/3 the way through the game, our 7-10 hitters are 0-5. Our 2-6 hitters are 5-9.

2005-06-29 13:11:01
103.   Icaros
Doesn't Weaver always forget what he's doing around the fourth inning?
2005-06-29 13:11:10
104.   bokonon42
Another crappy throw from Rose. To be fair, the ball that hit Blum only glanced of his knee. It hit Rose square in the crotch.
2005-06-29 13:11:52
105.   Steve
I am not very concerned with our inability to throw out baserunners, since I don't believe in stolen bases

BUT

I do wish if the Padres were just going to hand us outs, that we would take advantage. Both Ojeda and Blum were out by five feet on even below average throws.

2005-06-29 13:12:52
106.   ddger
The dodgers this year seem to go station to station a lot. Even with 3 hits we can't score lot of times.
2005-06-29 13:15:51
107.   Benaiah
106 - To be fair Drew is on a bum knee and it is tough to score from second on an infield single. While stealing bases all the time is wasting outs, never stealing bases seems to let the other team relax too much. I wouldn't mind the occasional attempt by anyone but Izturis.
2005-06-29 13:16:14
108.   ddger
We're usually waiting for 3 run homeruns instead of trying to play Smallball/Smartball and manufacture some runs especially when the offense is having so much trouble. I guess that's because Izzy isn't getting on base enough to jump start our offense and no one can bunt or advance runners.
2005-06-29 13:18:30
109.   Christina
Whew, 4th inning meltdown past and no runs.
2005-06-29 13:18:36
110.   everett
anyone want to guess what inning weaver will implode and give up 3+ runs?
(btw, i'm glad it wasn't the 4th)
2005-06-29 13:18:52
111.   ddger
We need to put pressure on the opponents pitcher and defense.

Notice how our defense and pitching responds terribly when under pressure.

2005-06-29 13:18:53
112.   fanerman91
Weaver gets out of the inning. He's then seen saying to himself, "Man, getting out of jams is hard work. I think next time I'll just go for the easy meltdown."
2005-06-29 13:20:14
113.   Langhorne
95

I take that back. If the throw pulls the first baseman off the bag sliding is okay if it's to avoid a tag.

Sliding never, ever gets you to the bag more quickly.

2005-06-29 13:21:13
114.   Benaiah
110 - 7th or 8th. Weaver always mixes in two or three parts good, one part damnable.
2005-06-29 13:22:03
115.   Steve
112 -- No, he says:

"IT'S ABOUT TIME!"

2005-06-29 13:22:30
116.   Benaiah
Whew Ross gets himself over the Izturis line with that hit.
2005-06-29 13:23:59
117.   Icaros
I'm just about tired of Mike Rose already.
2005-06-29 13:24:32
118.   Benaiah
Now we get to have the third inning redux, pitcher, Izzy leads into the meat of our order coming up with two outs.
2005-06-29 13:25:30
119.   the OZ
Does anyone else think we'll see Navarro start more than 50 games this year?

Phillips has been struggling and is cheap enough to be benched. With Martin looking good and coming up in AA, I'm not as worried about starting Navarro's service time.

2005-06-29 13:25:57
120.   ddger
Benaiah:

3 out of 17 starts have been dominant starts (7 or more innings with 1 or less earned runs). I guess this is okay for #3 or #4 starter.

2005-06-29 13:27:45
121.   ddger
We need to start scoring some runs off May. He is not that good a pitcher (over 5 ERA).
2005-06-29 13:29:03
122.   Benaiah
That is a 1 to 3, DS to QS ratio. I wonder if that is above average or just about right.
2005-06-29 13:29:10
123.   Jon Weisman
119 - The grass never fails to be greener, huh? One of the more curious things about the normally level-headed comments on this site is how quickly people look to Las Vegas for solutions.

The somewhat unlikely success of Derek Thompson (from Jacksonville) fed this phenomenon the way a Grabowski HR feeds Tracy.

2005-06-29 13:30:01
124.   ddger
What is good qualification for #1 or #2 starting pitcher. How about ERA under 3.3? Good #3 or #4 should have ERA under 4. Is this about right.
2005-06-29 13:30:27
125.   Icaros
Why waste a sacrifice when they could have just stolen second?
2005-06-29 13:32:31
126.   ddger
SD is stealing so much. I thought Rose was better defensive catcher than Phillips.
2005-06-29 13:33:29
127.   Benaiah
Lowe has a .4 and Penny has a 3/8. I don't know if that stat means anything (I am guessing not). Is it better to have all of your ER in a couple of meltdowns and be spectacular other than that?
2005-06-29 13:33:29
128.   Steve
Come on guys -- that's a cut.
2005-06-29 13:35:46
129.   ddger
Hope we score soon. If it comes to battle of bullpen, ours is so much weaker.
2005-06-29 13:36:40
130.   fanerman91
126,
It's the pitchers, not the catchers.
2005-06-29 13:37:46
131.   Benaiah
Izzy GIDP, I am calling my shot.
2005-06-29 13:37:54
132.   ddger
127. I think #1 or #2 should have higher pct of dominant starts (maybe 30% is not unreasonable) than #3 or #4 (around 20%).
2005-06-29 13:38:08
133.   Benaiah
Well I guess I should have looked at Gameday first.
2005-06-29 13:38:10
134.   Icaros
Shouldn't Izturis bunt here, Steve?
2005-06-29 13:38:12
135.   Steve
130 -- not on the first two. Those guys were both hosed easily.

Oh great. They're going to encourage him now.

2005-06-29 13:38:59
136.   fanerman91
How scrappy of him.
2005-06-29 13:39:43
137.   Icaros
I posted #134 before I saw what happened.
2005-06-29 13:39:47
138.   Benaiah
If I was Bochy I would have May on a very short leash. He has been lucky so far and you don't have to let him give up 4 runs to prove it. That said, I hope he lives him in.
2005-06-29 13:40:07
139.   Steve
Dear Jim Tracy:

Take your Choidamn bunts and put them where the sun don't shine

Sincerely,

Steve

2005-06-29 13:40:09
140.   Jacob L
Is Perez bunting? I can't see the third base coach from my office window.
2005-06-29 13:40:36
141.   Christina
127 - I'll give a couple of qualified answers to that question you posed: If the meltdowns come at the start of the season, then yes. If the pitcher's team has a really sucky offense, then yes (because then the team really only has a shot of winning the spectacular outings, so the # of spectacular outings needs to be maximized).
2005-06-29 13:41:05
142.   scareduck
"Three-run home run" and Antonio Perez go together like France and sauerkraut.

But I'll take it.

2005-06-29 13:41:05
143.   kngoworld
There is that 3 run homerun we were waiting for. HUGE!
2005-06-29 13:41:24
144.   Steve
140 -- ummmm...no. Perez is not bunting. :)
2005-06-29 13:41:25
145.   fanerman91
Perez for President!!!
2005-06-29 13:41:27
146.   Jon Weisman
When I saw that pitch to Perez on Gameday, it looked very fat.

Still, you get the feeling all the postgame conversation will be about Izturis' bunt.

Can someone tell me how impressive Ross' DP throw was earlier in the game? Routine or great?

2005-06-29 13:42:00
147.   fanerman91
But remember kids, it was Izzy's scrappy bunting that set up the home run.
2005-06-29 13:42:10
148.   Bunting is for losers
And that's why you should never bunt...
2005-06-29 13:43:39
149.   Benaiah
141 - I agree Christina. If you are the Red Sox or the Cardinals all you need are QS and you will rack up wins. The Dodgers right now could use a bevy of pitchers who alternate between 2 DS and 3IP 7ER starts. At the beginning of the year all we needed were QS so of course we were getting mostly meltdowns.
2005-06-29 13:44:54
150.   Christina
So many infield singles this game...
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-06-29 13:45:17
151.   Benaiah
148 - Lately with Izturis bunting is a higher% hit than swinging away.
2005-06-29 13:46:08
152.   Jon Weisman
Dodgers.com just posted that Odalis Perez will in fact make one more rehab start, against his wishes.
2005-06-29 13:46:20
153.   Icaros
Is that two infield singles for Jeff Kent?
2005-06-29 13:48:00
154.   Benaiah
152 - It is weird considering they actually said he was pitching on Sunday earlier. Coming back to pitch in Coors will be rough, but pitching in Las Vegas should at least be good practice.
2005-06-29 13:48:34
155.   dzzrtRatt
I think Perez has been trying to reach the fences for the past few days. He's hit the warning track a few times lately. This homer has been in the works for awhile.

All this nonsense about trading Izturis: The far more likely asset to be traded soon is Perez. We've got a power hitting third baseman who isn't a good fielder already, and he'll be back at work in August. Behind him, the inevitable march of the Suns. If Valentin looks to be healthy, it's Perez we'll use to pry a hard-hitting outfielder loose from Cincinatti or wherever. He's done a nice job, but he's going to be a spare part soon.

2005-06-29 13:49:24
156.   jasonungar05
day games are such a catch 22 for me. Love that I can waste time at work by keeping on top of the game. Hate that I cant waste time at home tonight keeping on top of the game.
2005-06-29 13:49:50
157.   Marty
Good afternoon gang. Redding's Gameday photo resembles one of the characters on Deadwood. Silas Adams
2005-06-29 13:50:41
158.   Jon Weisman
Pinch-hit for Ross with Choi, now.
2005-06-29 13:51:24
159.   Marty
Whose on the bench? Shouldn't we pinch hit for Ross?
2005-06-29 13:51:24
160.   Langhorne
Jon,

Cody's throw was a one hop strike to Perez. If it had been at all off line Giles would have been safe so I'd have call it a great throw. Or near great, at the very least.

2005-06-29 13:52:01
161.   Jacob L
OMG, we chased a pitcher before the 6th inning! Or should I say, we chased Darrell May?

The Perez rehab schedule is one of the following:

1. a bizarre torture ritual in which Perez returns @ coors wherein Tracy leaves him out there for a dozen runs and 150 pitches, OR

2. buying time for someone else to get hurt thus allowing Erickson to remain on the roster. Has anyone suggested that Erickson has either killed or kidnapped DePo and is, himself, acting as GM of the Dodgers?

2005-06-29 13:53:13
162.   Marty
Whose??? Make that "Who's"
2005-06-29 13:55:10
163.   the OZ
Jon -

119 wasn't meant as a swipe against our current catchers, although I can understand why it was interpreted as such based on its timing. I like Phillips plenty, but he's not so awesome that we can't try a kid out if the season soon doesn't get more hopeful. And, I don't expect Navarro to be any kind of savior this season. I actually don't think ANYONE in Vegas is 'the answer.'

With the current state of affairs, it's not an unreasonable question, though. DePodesta might want to take a long look at Navarro this season before finishing his offseason plans. Based on that idea, will we see a lot of Navarro this year? Maybe.

2005-06-29 13:56:29
164.   Benaiah
162 - My theories are that either Depo is madly in love with Scott's wife and is only keeping him around so he has opportunities to impress her with the size of his harddrive or alternatively, he figures that he will have at least one "reporter" on his side as long as Erickson doesn't get cut.
2005-06-29 13:56:45
165.   ddger
I guess waiting for the 3run homer finally paid off. It's about time for a homerun from our 3rd baseman.
2005-06-29 13:57:46
166.   Jon Weisman
Three outfielders and three first basemen on the bench, four innings to go, but Ross is a better option against the righty pitcher than Choi?
2005-06-29 13:58:06
167.   ddger
Tracy is finally seeing the light. He should NEVER ask Perez to BUNT.
2005-06-29 13:58:42
168.   scareduck
164: my theory is that Erickson is leasing his wife to DePo. At a negative interest rate.
2005-06-29 13:59:06
169.   Steve
Tracy is going to bring Choi in to pitch to Klesko and Burroughs in the eighth.
2005-06-29 14:00:28
170.   Colorado Blue
157 - With a shaved head... you can tell even with the cap on.
2005-06-29 14:00:44
171.   scareduck
152: didn't Will Carroll say as much earlier in the week?
2005-06-29 14:00:59
172.   Jacob L
166 - I recall having this discussion during last week's day game. Maybe Choi sits during day games against San Diego. Maybe Ross Porter is now running stats for the Dodger field staff. Choi obviously is no good in day games, except for the time he hit three homers.
2005-06-29 14:01:06
173.   Benaiah
Alright we have a three run cushion so the first run that crosses the plate should be the cue to pull Weaver. Tracy isn't going to pull him unless they tie it up though.
2005-06-29 14:01:14
174.   the OZ
Cue implosion.
2005-06-29 14:01:27
175.   Icaros
Okay, looks like the sixth is today's meltdown inning, then.

How a guy gets a three-run lead, then comes out and walks the first two batters I'll never know.

2005-06-29 14:01:56
176.   weatherman
I don't like this situation
2005-06-29 14:02:09
177.   Colorado Blue
I think 2 walks to lead-off the inning is a good enough clue given Weav's fragile mental state...
2005-06-29 14:02:25
178.   Steve
We are in first place in the Rehab League, going away. Might as well win something this year.
2005-06-29 14:03:23
179.   Icaros
Amazing escape for Jeffy.
2005-06-29 14:03:36
180.   the OZ
Excellent, the reverse-jinx worked perfectly and Weaver finishes the inning...
2005-06-29 14:03:47
181.   Colorado Blue
Hmmm... DP. Nice.
2005-06-29 14:04:04
182.   Jacob L
Or, Weave could just get a couple of groundouts to end the inning. Tell the clubhouse guys not to fire up the hookah just yet.
2005-06-29 14:04:28
183.   Benaiah
Weaver manages to get out of his second jam of the day! Is this the new gutsy version of Weaver. Maybe he switched to a harder drug from weed and now he is on the edge rather than just medicated?
2005-06-29 14:05:22
184.   Colorado Blue
Well, it ain't steroids... must be speed.
2005-06-29 14:05:38
185.   Icaros
I'd have somebody warming up to start the sixth. Weaver is already at 94 pitches.
2005-06-29 14:05:45
186.   ddger
Whew, hope Weaver gives us 1 more scoreless inning. Wonder if Tracy will let Weaver go 8 since our bullpen is not reliable.
2005-06-29 14:06:10
187.   Benaiah
Rose-Weaver-Izturis. Murder's row.
2005-06-29 14:08:13
188.   Jacob L
Weaver going 8 is not exactly reliable either. He's definitely starting the 7th, though.
2005-06-29 14:08:51
189.   Mark Linsey
Hey now, don't know Weaver's ability to hit. That's really why JT didn't even think about pulling him, he knew that he would be the only guy due up who could hit.
2005-06-29 14:09:02
190.   Steve
This just in: The Dodgers are 18-8 in games where Izturis has scored a run.

They have played 76 games.

2005-06-29 14:10:20
191.   Icaros
Just because Weaver is a shaggy punk from Simi Valley doesn't mean he's hitting the bong.

Your children's teachers and personal physicians are more likely marijuana users.

2005-06-29 14:11:11
192.   weatherman
188 - I like how you wrote "Murder's Row" instead of "Murderer's Row."
2005-06-29 14:11:48
193.   fanerman91
Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver. Please don't melt down Mr. Weaver.
2005-06-29 14:12:34
194.   Christina
Fouled out to second? Wha-?
2005-06-29 14:12:34
195.   Benaiah
191 - Come on! Are you serious? "Just because Weaver is a shaggy punk from Simi Valley doesn't mean he's hitting the bong." I think that the glazed look in his eyes and the munchies he brings to the postgame interviews are a good sign.
2005-06-29 14:12:38
196.   dzzrtRatt
Chemistry alert!

After Kent caught that pop fly, he patted another Dodger (Ross?) in a friendly way.

Cancer in remission!

2005-06-29 14:12:52
197.   Jacob L
191 - Just because Weaver might not be hitting the bong doesn't its not fun to endlessly crack jokes about it. Not as funny as that Mets team a couple years ago (Tarasco, etal), but still funny.
2005-06-29 14:13:55
198.   db1022
#191 - I think its a joke, but also think that pot use is probably pretty frequent in the bigs.

The Mets had a bunch of stoners a couple years back, Darryl Kile was high when he died. Heck, even Rex Hudler smokes.

I guess any job that allows you to wake up after noon, and doesn't start until 5pm is pretty conducive to potheads. No drug testing either.

2005-06-29 14:13:58
199.   Benaiah
192 - Murdered Row would be most appropriate.
2005-06-29 14:14:40
200.   the OZ
191 -

Having known many shaggy punks when growing up in Simi Valley, yes, I can say with certainty that Weaver is hitting the bong, bowl, hukkah, and j.

Your point about doctors and teachers is well taken, though. I have a friend in med school who once said he wanted to be a doctor so he could afford to spend $1000 a week on weed. I'm not wholly sure he wasn't joking.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-06-29 14:14:43
201.   bokonon42
192- Or Murderers' Row.
2005-06-29 14:14:57
202.   Benaiah
Wow that went by like the Dodger's were at bat. Weaver is cruising.
2005-06-29 14:15:33
203.   Icaros
I think that the glazed look in his eyes and the munchies he brings to the postgame interviews are a good sign.

I can't tell if this is a joke or not. What munchies has he brought to post-game interviews?

2005-06-29 14:15:53
204.   Marty
Looks like we got the good Spicoli today.
2005-06-29 14:16:22
205.   Benaiah
It was a joke
2005-06-29 14:16:56
206.   Vishal
khalil greene looks more like spicoli than jeff weaver.
2005-06-29 14:17:06
207.   Langhorne
155

Perez is the only minor league position player we've seen who looks like he might have a chance in the majors. Depending on how he does the rest of the year, I'd sooner trade Guzman or La Roche or anyone in the system. I've wanted to address this for a while and since Jon mentioned it earlier I will now.
I think it's very foolish to pin too much hope on minor league talent. No matter how good they look in Jacksonville the odds are against them making it in the majors. A few will eventually make it but predicting who is next to impossible. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we never see our top prospects in Dodger uniforms. Which is why Perez has increased his value so much. Even with shaky defense he is worth more right now than half a dozen prospects because he has shown he can handle major league pitching.

2005-06-29 14:17:17
208.   jasonungar05
Yah, Bradley was like me and Weaver are best friends, we live close and we play PS2 every night.

Aloha Mr Hand.

2005-06-29 14:17:39
209.   Benaiah
He does have the greasy hair and doopy eyes of a weed-head though. I think that over time everyoone begins to resemble their drug of choice (with the exception of alcoholics, since they come in so many flavors).
2005-06-29 14:18:19
210.   Icaros
I'm not at all against pot smoking, by the way, just making the point that a lot of cleaner-cut individuals than Weaver like to blaze.
2005-06-29 14:18:35
211.   Jacob L
So if Weave is Spicoli, does that make Tracy Mr Hand?
2005-06-29 14:19:17
212.   Marty
206. Yes he does. But Weaver is all we've got for Ridgemont High jokes :)
2005-06-29 14:19:30
213.   stubbs
Icaros-you are quick.

Not watching the game, how does Saenz look? Slower than usual?

2005-06-29 14:19:30
214.   weatherman
190: Wow and he's scored 38 runs this year too.
2005-06-29 14:19:54
215.   Benaiah
Weaver increases his DS/QS ratio to 4:10 assuming that he doesn't give up a GS this inning.
2005-06-29 14:20:32
216.   db1022
#210 - Potheads come in all shapes and sizes, including shaggy haired loafers from Simi Valley.
2005-06-29 14:21:04
217.   Icaros
Stubbs, you talk a lot of crap for a little boy hiding behind a PC.
2005-06-29 14:21:23
218.   fanerman91
If this shaggy haired loafer from Simi Valley comes back for one more inning, I think I'M going to be hitting the bong...
2005-06-29 14:23:13
219.   Jacob L
Is that like 12 straight outs in this game? Everybody got a bus to catch? Something on t.v. at 3?
2005-06-29 14:23:26
220.   Benaiah
218 - It is better he comes in even if he is over 100 pitches. Get Yhency warming up for a two inning stint if necesary (ha like Tracy would do that), but who else in the bullpen would you rather have out there right now?
2005-06-29 14:23:38
221.   Steve
Wunsch will pitch to the Democrats.
2005-06-29 14:23:46
222.   fanerman91
AHHH. Excuse me. I need to step outside for a few minutes...
2005-06-29 14:23:56
223.   Jacob L
Now we know!! Choi's role on this team is as a late inning defensive replacement!
2005-06-29 14:24:03
224.   Jon Weisman
217 - Icaros, you know I don't permit that kind of remark here. Why do you keep doing this?
2005-06-29 14:24:29
225.   Jim Tracy
Jeff Weaver Pitching Breakdown for 2005, including today (as long as he does not come out for the 8th inning)

April - ERA 6.23 K/9 4.15
May - ERA 5.25 K/9 6.75
June - ERA 2.63 K/9 6.81

That's a pretty good June by anyone's standards. He went 7 innings in 5 of his 6 starts and 6 innings in the other. His season ERA now stands at 4.53, and if you take away the Atlanta grand slam that he gave up, his ERA would be 4.19, which is pretty good for a #3 starter, I would think.

2005-06-29 14:24:50
226.   Steve
That's one way to stay out of the double play -- send the runner and have the batted ball hit him.
2005-06-29 14:25:09
227.   Christina
Why is Robles in for Perez?
2005-06-29 14:25:40
228.   Marty
226. Is that what happened? It has frozen gameday
2005-06-29 14:25:59
229.   Sushirabbit
Did anyone notice the exchange between Drew and Kent last night when Drew came in and caught the ball? I just thought it was funny, like they had been reading DT, and they both kind of smirked at each other.
2005-06-29 14:26:02
230.   Icaros
Jon, read #213. This happened yesterday as well. If you were as quick to scold others as you do me, I wouldn't have to defend myself.
2005-06-29 14:26:04
231.   Jim Tracy
And I just noticed that he came on for the 8th inning. Never mind.
2005-06-29 14:27:11
232.   Benaiah
227 - Why not? Late innings defensive replacement Robles is ok, just as long as he doesn't pinch hit.
2005-06-29 14:27:13
233.   Steve
Yeah, Blum hit a line drive one-hopper right at Kent, but before Kent could make the play, it hit Jackson. It was a play fraught with irony. If Jackson's not going it's an easy double play, but since he was going, it was the equivalent of a force out.

Wunsch's strategy is to have them hit it too hard.

2005-06-29 14:27:40
234.   fanerman91
Democrats indeed.
2005-06-29 14:28:00
235.   jasonungar05
218. already have in anticapation of Spicoli coming back. I need to keep calm. I need to relax and no worry, Mon.

Trace: great game, give me the ball
Weaves: no its not time yet, i am good.
Trace: I make the decisons, and I say it's time

Weaves:If i am here and you are here, dosen't that make it our time, Mr. Hand?

2005-06-29 14:28:28
236.   stubbs
Beltre and Kent behind Drew...coulda happened:
Valentin-3.5
Ledee-1.2
Bako-650,00
Erickson-550k
Approx-6mil

Beltre 11mil
Rose 300k
Edwards 300k
Houlton-500k
Approx-12mil

Puts us at 94 mil this year.

2005-06-29 14:29:09
237.   Fearing Blue
#207: That's not accurate when it comes to top position prospects. The success rate for that group (top 50 prospects) is high, thus pinning hopes on Guzman and LaRoche is pretty reasonable. The main reason it's not higher for top pitching prospects is because of the frequent injuries derailing careers.
2005-06-29 14:29:36
238.   Jon Weisman
I am plenty quick to "scold" everyone here. Did so with Stubbs and others just the other day. I read 213, and it's innocuous. "You are quick" - come on. You have to see that yours raises the hostility level more significantly.

Beyond that, you don't have to defend yourself. Just ignore him.

2005-06-29 14:30:00
239.   Marty
235. LOL
2005-06-29 14:30:38
240.   Steve
236 -- Frank McCourt says that was the plan. You can choose to believe or disbelieve him at your leisure.

But don't pretend that "11mil" is what Beltre would have accepted to come here.

2005-06-29 14:30:40
241.   Jim Tracy
Read Weaver's June ERA at 2.61. If his July is anything like his June, his season ERA should be under 4.00. That would be a remarkable recovery.
2005-06-29 14:30:52
242.   Benaiah
236 - How do you replace 4 players with Beltre and players already on the roster? Admittedly you could just leave Erickson off and have a 24 man roster and no one would notice.
2005-06-29 14:31:22
243.   jasonungar05
Beltre and Kent behind Drew...coulda happened:

and then we would be in the same place as we are today except we would owe Beltre 50 more million dollars.

2005-06-29 14:31:59
244.   Marty
Icaros don't let it get to you. Just enjoy the beer at Bob's house :)
2005-06-29 14:32:31
245.   Steve
Bob should have known better than to leave beer in his house.
2005-06-29 14:33:30
246.   Benaiah
Yhency is going to get a chance to pad his Save's stat in a low pressure situation. Meanwhile, Duaner was allowed to put a dagger in our comeback hopes last night.
2005-06-29 14:34:45
247.   Monterey Chris
Yhency is on my fantasy team...there is nothing wrong with low pressure saves!
2005-06-29 14:37:33
248.   Marty
I need to get a Ghame Over oxford, so I can wear it at work.
2005-06-29 14:38:31
249.   Nagman
It's a low pressure save situation until Yhency toes the rubber.
2005-06-29 14:39:58
250.   Benaiah
Sweeny has done a nice job for SD this year. It reminds me of when we used to have a bench.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-06-29 14:41:16
251.   stubbs
242-in theory, before the season, the guys i mentioned are in the minors. im looking at it in hindsight.

243-im from the camp that Beltre would have produced better staying in LA...lets say at 2nd half '03 levels.

1.Izturis
2.Werth
3. Drew
4. Beltre
5. Kent
6. Bradley
7. Choi/Saenz
8. Phillips

Thats a lineup that I would feel comfortable with going far in the playoffs. We are missing 2 big sticks with our current lineup, one with Bradley back.

2005-06-29 14:43:18
252.   bokonon42
No zealot like a convert; bokonon42 goes on apostrophe patrol:

246- Saves aren't possessive.

2005-06-29 14:43:25
253.   Steve
250 and 251 both made me laugh, but for different reasons.
2005-06-29 14:44:07
254.   Marty
252. But they are obsessive. At least to managers
2005-06-29 14:44:11
255.   Benaiah
How Sweeney and Nady don't consistantly start is beyong me. They are OPSing to the tune of 894 and 857 respectively.
2005-06-29 14:44:43
256.   Langhorne
Nice win. Hope burns eternal.
2005-06-29 14:44:45
257.   Eric L
re: 251

You mean the same Beltre who essentially didn't perform in LA until last year? Maybe he would have been mediocre Beltre in LA this year as opposed to terrible Beltre in Seattle.

2005-06-29 14:44:47
258.   scareduck
Former Dirtbag McAnulty comes awfully close to crushing the Dodgers' hopes.
2005-06-29 14:45:45
259.   scareduck
251: how do you pay for a Kent AND a Beltre at the same time? That is not a fiscally reasonable lineup.
2005-06-29 14:45:50
260.   Benaiah
Have a more productive afternoon everyone. Good night.
2005-06-29 14:45:58
261.   stubbs
255-at the game last night Sean Burroughs looked like a guy who was already thinking about his favorite places to eat, wherever the Pads triple a affiliate is. Lost at the plate and made two bad throws in the field. Nady must be a hack at 3B.
2005-06-29 14:46:19
262.   Jacob L
Ghame over. The fact that we've won 4 of 7 from our division leaders (4 of the last 5 really) and not a single other game since June 12 is, well, wierd.
2005-06-29 14:46:36
263.   Marty
259. Drew is in there as well. Mighty expensive
2005-06-29 14:49:25
264.   stubbs
259-94 million and Kent is gone after 2006.
This argument is tough to pull off with Beltre struggling, but my lineup in 251 is stellar in the field and has the bats to compete with St. Louis. We already have 2 pitchers that are considered big game starters that would change the dynamic of that series.
2005-06-29 14:49:26
265.   Jacob L
Yeah, Kent signed pretty early. I think it was clear that Drew was plan B when Beltre left.
2005-06-29 14:49:49
266.   Steve
257 -- No, no! This is the Beltre that lives in our mind's eye, where he dances across diamonds built on the cornfields of Iowa, OPSing to a 1.700 clip, scrappily bunting, sliding into first, and setting records for RBI, even though the leadoff hitter ahead of him has an OBP of .300. The Diamonds of the Mind need no baserunners, however, only the will to conjure up a beautiful nonsense.
2005-06-29 14:51:04
267.   Fearing Blue
#262: It tells you a little bit about our division.
2005-06-29 14:52:11
268.   Christina
How many games have we lost this year because of our third baseman's defense? Serious question, not snarky.
2005-06-29 14:53:45
269.   stubbs
266-Considering Beltre's defense and that he was coming off 3 consecutive good halves, how much would you have offered? And does that squad not look at least good to you for 6 million under the century mark?
2005-06-29 14:53:47
270.   Christina
I'll add that I personally can't remember any, but I haven't been able to follow all the games this year.
2005-06-29 14:55:54
271.   stubbs
268-impossible to answer...did we lose the Weaver-angel perfect game cause of that misplay? No, but it was the momentum turning play.

How about that road trip when Mikey Edwards was holding down the fort? He was making about 2 plays a game that weren't errors but inexperience plays (mistags etc).

2005-06-29 14:59:03
272.   Marty
268. The first game. That led to the infamous column by Plashcke
2005-06-29 14:59:16
273.   Jacob L
The discussion today prompted me to look up Beltre's numbers again. What he's doing this year for our friends in the northwest is not regressing to the mean, adjusting to a new league or tough hitters' park, nor is it dealing with the pressure of a big contract. Its abysmal. Worse than his most moribund seasons here.

Obvioulsy, there's 90 games left in the year, but what I'm getting at is, is there something wrong with Beltre? A three week slump by Izturis has got us all questioning his physical soundness. On the one hand, I'm glad he's stinking somewhere else, but I really liked Beltre.

2005-06-29 14:59:34
274.   Christina
So, at the very most, we're talking a few games.

For this you want to pay $50 million? Note that Perez has won a few games for us with his bat.

We have no guarantee that Beltre would be hitting any better in LA than he is in Seattle. And you've just shown that his better defense would not have saved a significant enough portion of games to justify $50 million.

2005-06-29 15:00:22
275.   Steve
"3 Consecutive good halves"

Our mark of historical success ever devolves.

I, like most, was sorry to see Beltre go, but understood that at the more likely 80-90 million that would have resulted from a bidding war, such a move was necessary. The pitching staff, given your lineup, would have been Dessens, Ishii, Weaver, Houlton, and Derek Thompson.

It is becoming clear that DePo was right, and the rest of us were wrong, regardless of whether Beltre somehow scrapes his way back to .800 OPS. .800 OPS is Shawn Green. Currently, Beltre is finally past Izturis, but now he's battling with Neifi!(TM)

Of course, I can't defeat the speculations and conjectures that you claim might have been if Beltre was playing here. Those are sophistry.

2005-06-29 15:02:49
276.   Sushirabbit
And when Valentin was there (3B), the Dodgers were winning...
2005-06-29 15:04:27
277.   Jon Weisman
Did anyone notice that Fearing Blue determined in the comments Tuesday that thanks to Beltre's defense and Glaus' lack thereof, the two are having roughly the same quality seasons? Of course, this depends on the defensive metrics that some people have trouble with.
2005-06-29 15:08:30
278.   Fearing Blue
#278: Jon, bigcpa pointed out that based on Win Shares instead of WARP, the difference is roughly 1 win. Either way, Beltre is having a very significant impact with his glove. It's not a $13-million dollar a year impact, but it is keeping him from being a total disaster.

At $10 million / year (the Dodgers offer), I'd be willing to deal with Beltre's performance to-date. But, at roughly $13 million / year, the Mariners have got to be kicking themselves.

2005-06-29 15:10:27
279.   Fearing Blue
Also, there's something a little funky going on with BP's WARP. I'm currently corresponding with Clay Davenport to see if he can explain it to me.
2005-06-29 15:10:51
280.   stubbs
277-Defense is the wildcard in this discussion.
Beltre's 2000 season, considering he was 21, or 20 or 22 or whatever he really was, is damn impressive. His apendectomy wiped out 2001. 2002/first half 2003 were mediocre, 2003-2nd half was very good, 2004-HOF year, 2005-something strange going on.
2005-06-29 15:11:02
281.   fanerman91
278,
Or ready to reinsert some bone spurs.
2005-06-29 15:13:53
282.   jasonungar05
see thats the thing stubbs. Many of us do not find 2005 strange. We find a half of 2003 and 2004 strange.

I feel that Beltre needs to be highly motivated to perform at top level. That motivation can come from Tyler Houston, Robin Ventura or Scott Boras.

2005-06-29 15:16:11
283.   stubbs
282-dont underestimate the power of choi. a 6'6 left handed 3b waiting in the wings.

if you look at his career numbers, he is off from his adpendectomy year numbers.

2005-06-29 15:17:26
284.   Jacob L
281, I thought the theory from last year that Beltre played better because of the injury was nonsense. But the evidence does seem to mount, no?
2005-06-29 15:18:42
285.   Steve
David Wright is OPSing .900 at 22.

I don't know about Beltre, but had DePodesta spent any amount on money on anyone else with Beltre's numbers, some folks around here would be singing a different tune.

2005-06-29 15:19:17
286.   fanerman91
It could be a combination of the injury and the motivation.
2005-06-29 15:22:25
287.   Steve
And yes, I know that Adrian Beltre is no David Wright, but that is the entire point.
2005-06-29 15:27:19
288.   jasonungar05
among qualified leaders: these are the only players in baseball with an OBP over .400.

Derrek Lee
Nick Johnson
Brian Roberts
Bobby Abreu
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Luis Castillo
Brian Giles
Moises Alou
J.D. Drew LAD
Carlos Delgado
Travis Hafner
Luis Gonzalez
Vladimir Guerrero
David Dellucci

2005-06-29 15:28:43
289.   ddger
Weaver gave us a dominant start (now its 4 out of 17). Hope we can get more of these dominant starts from Penny and Lowe than just quality starts. Our quality starts are not enough to win these days with our weak offense.
2005-06-29 15:32:12
290.   jasonungar05
over .890 OPS

Derrek Lee
Brian Roberts
Albert Pujols
Álex Rodríguez
Bobby Abreu PHI
Vladimir Guerrero
David Ortiz
Carlos Delgado
Miguel Tejada 8
Jim Edmonds
Jason Bay
Andruw Jones
Miguel Cabrera
Nick Johnson
Travis Hafner
Adam Dunn
Jason Varitek
Morgan Ensberg
Moisés Alou
Aramis Ramírez
Brian Giles
Mark Teixeira
Chase Utley
Manny Ramírez
Cliff Floyd
David Dellucci
Felipe López
Gary Sheffield
Reggie Sanders
David Wright
J.D. Drew
Pat Burrell
Kevin Mench
Jeff Kent

2005-06-29 15:33:03
291.   Steve
IIRC, Wright is at .389/.512. Just thinking about it makes me tingly.
2005-06-29 15:33:46
292.   Jacob L
288, David Delucci kinda sticks out on that list, don't he? Also, an interesting mix between guys that are just patient hitters (Giles, Drew, Johnson) and guys who the opposition doesn't want to pitch to (ARod, Pujols, Vlad). To think that Barry Bonds has not been on base once this year . . .
2005-06-29 15:34:18
293.   Steve
What? No Alex Cora? Those numbers have to be wrong.
2005-06-29 15:34:40
294.   Christina
Oh look, and our Plan B because-Beltre-didn't-sign guy Drew is on both of those lists.
2005-06-29 15:35:14
295.   Christina
And look who's missing. cough
2005-06-29 15:35:21
296.   stubbs
Would the Reds do Edwin Jackson, Hee-Seop Choi and another prospect for Adam Dunn? Dunn seems to fit Depo's budget and philosophy.
2005-06-29 15:39:05
297.   stubbs
295-If Drew doesnt have OPS, what else does he have?....OPS is Drew's middle name. J.OPS Drew. No one in their right mind would ever argue against this...the guy flat out gets on base.
2005-06-29 15:40:13
298.   fanerman91
Isn't his middle name Jonathon? Sorry, I had to ask.
2005-06-29 15:40:44
299.   the OZ
296 - i think "Yes," unequivocally. But that'd never happen, unless the Reds are even stupider than they look.
2005-06-29 15:41:52
300.   Steve
295 -- ummmmm...Shawn Green?
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2005-06-29 15:42:57
301.   Christina
297 - and so, would you rather have Beltre or Drew this season?

Because the Dodgers only signed Drew because they didn't sign Beltre.

2005-06-29 15:42:58
302.   bokonon42
296- "... And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger
those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name
is Choi when I lay my vengeance upon you."

No fantasy trading Choi.

2005-06-29 15:43:00
303.   stubbs
Choi-Tracy in Cincy 2006 would be one of the greatest things to ever watch from afar.
2005-06-29 15:44:58
304.   stubbs
301-So far this year...J.OPS no doubt.
The issues are durability for 5 years and position scarcity, which we wont be able to determine for a few years.
2005-06-29 15:45:14
305.   Christina
302 - hee!
2005-06-29 15:46:11
306.   Steve
303 -- Tracy as Pacino in Godfather III

"I thought I was out...they pull me back in!"

2005-06-29 15:46:20
307.   jasonungar05
now if i can only find a hitting with RISP list.
2005-06-29 15:48:16
308.   stubbs
307-try www.erickarros.com
2005-06-29 15:55:57
309.   jasonungar05
308 LOL..is that website #.220 or .234
2005-06-29 15:56:39
310.   Christina
304 - I agree, the trade can't be fully evaluated now, but in a few years.

But your own arguments in this thread have been focusing on having Beltre around this year for a playoff run this year, and you've just admitted that the Dodgers ended up with the better man for this year in Drew.

2005-06-29 16:00:22
311.   stubbs
310-I loved Beltre, i'll admit.
The combo of defense and offense we got from him last year at such a critical position will probably never happen again.

I also am wary of Drew breaking down, altho for our sake I hope it never happens.

2005-06-29 16:02:32
312.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
Belly and Dukie will always have a special place in my heart, and the hearts of others.
2005-06-29 16:10:53
313.   Christina
311 - true about Drew, and part of any trade evaluation six years from now may well involve a discussion of who we ultimately get to replace Drew a couple of years from now.

But keep in mind also that even if Drew breaks down in future years, the trade will still end up being worth it if our much-cheaper 3B of the future--whether that be Valentin, Perez, or one of our prospects--performs better offensively than Beltre in future seasons. Unless Beltre steps it up with his offense, the bar isn't going to be set terribly high.

2005-06-29 16:11:15
314.   Christina
311 - true about Drew, and part of any trade evaluation six years from now may well involve a discussion of who we ultimately get to replace Drew a couple of years from now.

But keep in mind also that even if Drew breaks down in future years, the move will still end up being worth it if our much-cheaper 3B of the future--whether that be Valentin, Perez, or one of our prospects--performs better offensively than Beltre in future seasons. Unless Beltre steps it up with his offense, the bar isn't going to be set terribly high.

2005-06-29 16:11:42
315.   Christina
Oops - sorry for the double post, I saw one word I needed to correct. Ah well.
2005-06-29 16:15:41
316.   rageon
I see the choice of re-signing Beltre last year similiar to how I imagine the A's handled the Jason Giambi. Sure, Beltre would be great to have, but he will be asking for unreasiltic numbers, and unless he is willing to accept what WE consider fair value, rather than him and his agent, it's not going to happen. Beltre has a historically great year, and he was going to get paid based on that performance. And I can't think of many serious fans that expected him to put up even 75% of that value again. So i think Depo made an offer he knew Beltre wouldn't take, just to try to appease the masses and say "Hey, we tried, but that greedy bastard wouldn't take it." Unfortunately, the Times was on Beltre's side.

On Drew vs. Beltre, at the time, I think I would have gone with Drew, all things equal, but it would have been close. Of course, that is without me having any special access to his medical reports. Basically the choice was taking a risk that Drew would play in as many games as he did in 2004 vs. a risk that Beltre would play as well as he did in 2004. Because Drew, when healthy, is only a slightly worse hitter than Beltre was last season. (obviously, positioning gives Beltre extra value overall) I think the odds of Drew staying healthy were better than Beltre continuing to hit at that rate, particularily considering that he'd never been above average prior to that. I think it's easier to make a guy healthy than it is to make a guy a hall of fame hitter.

And regarding Beltre bitching that Depo didn't call him personally. Get the f' over it Adrian. That's not his job. Kim Ng handles contracts, and she called him. If Depo had Billy from consessions call him, I could understand. But Ng is what, his #2, #3 person in the organization? Welcome to what we call "business" Mr. Beltre. Sorry if your feelings were hurt.

2005-06-29 16:24:09
317.   heato
I also like to think that Beltre's leaving might have helped us get Hochevar. Resigning Beltre would have left us without a pick in the first round or supplemental first round. In 2008, we might be much happier with Hochevar than we would have been with Beltre.
2005-06-29 16:27:02
318.   rageon
Forgot to add:

Drew gets a huge edge over Beltre due to our prospect breakdown. For example, using Sickels' top 20 list:

2B: B (Young), B- (Aybar)
SS: A (Guzman), B- (Hu)
3B: B (DeWitt), B- (LaRoche, obviously higher now)
OF: C- (Kemp, who?)

We obviously need outfielders more than infielders. VERY obviously.

Also, Baseball America has a Ask BA regarding Kuo at:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html

2005-06-29 16:34:25
319.   Im So Blue
#307:
ESPN.com, Batting averages for NL players with at least 50 plate appearances with RiSP:

RK PLAYER TEAM AB BA OPS

1 Derrek Lee ChC 74 .419 1.407
2 Tony Clark Ari 49 .408 1.169
3 Jeff Kent LAD 64 .406 1.153
4 Albert Pujols StL 71 .394 1.296
5 Clint Barmes Col 51 .392 1.044
6 Omar Vizquel SF 63 .381 0.952
6 Mike Matheny SF 42 .381 1.131
6 Nick Johnson Was 63 .381 1.159
9 Michael Barrett ChC 54 .370 1.112
10 Olmedo Saenz LAD 41 .366 1.196
11 Jimmy Rollins Phi 55 .364 1.052
12 Rob Mackowiak Pit 61 .361 1.133
13 Garrett Atkins Col 59 .356 0.872
14 Edgardo Alfonzo SF 49 .347 0.873
15 Luis Gonzalez Ari 75 .347 1.056
16 David Eckstein StL 52 .346 0.960
17 Craig Biggio Hou 64 .344 0.910
18 Juan Encarnacion Fla 68 .338 0.974
19 Bobby Abreu Phi 69 .333 1.000
19 Adam Everett Hou 54 .333 0.898
19 Miguel Cabrera Fla 93 .333 0.926
22 Craig Counsell Ari 52 .327 0.869
23 Brad Wilkerson Was 43 .326 1.050
24 Sean Casey Cin 71 .324 0.769
25 Jim Edmonds StL 65 .323 1.078
26 Paul Lo Duca Fla 63 .317 0.789
26 Morgan Ensberg Hou 63 .317 1.093
28 Carlos Lee Mil 95 .316 1.042
29 Pat Burrell Phi 84 .310 1.053
30 Phil Nevin SD 78 .308 0.783
31 Brady Clark Mil 49 .306 0.844
31 Chad Tracy Ari 49 .306 0.887
33 Jason Bay Pit 59 .305 1.058
34 Matt Lawton Pit 46 .304 0.908
35 Alex Gonzalez Fla 69 .304 0.830
36 Jason Phillips LAD 63 .302 0.796

2005-06-29 16:39:08
320.   db1022
3 Giants in the top 15. No wonder they were able to hold it together for the first month and a half.
2005-06-29 16:43:54
321.   db1022
#318 - Get Adam Dunn.
2005-06-29 16:46:25
322.   Steve
Ahh the ever dangerous Tony Clark.
2005-06-29 16:57:12
323.   jasonungar05
The Reds will trade outfielder Adam Dunn only if they receive a top young pitcher in return. Few teams will be willing to part with a potential Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but if the Reds play this right, they could make a franchise-altering deal.

Dunn, 25, isn't a free agent until after the '07 season, so his value might be at its peak. Any team that acquires him would get two-plus seasons of his prodigious power, albeit at arbitration-inflated increases from his current salary of $4.6 million.

from Rosenthal (sporting news)

Class AA righthander Chad Billingsley probably is untouchable, but the Dodgers possess one of the deepest farm systems in the game, both in pitchers and position players. They could send left fielder Jayson Werth back to the Reds as part of the package. Or they could keep Werth and use Dunn at first base.

2005-06-29 16:59:11
324.   Im So Blue
Here are the BAs for the Dodgers with RiSP:

NAME AB BA OPS
Antonio Perez 22 .455 0.975
Jeff Kent 64 .406 1.153
Olmedo Saenz 41 .366 1.196
Paul Bako 14 .357 0.899
Jayson Werth 29 .310 1.003
J. Phillips 63 .302 0.796
Derek Lowe 7 .286 0.571
Ricky Ledee 37 .270 0.668
Jose Valentin 15 .267 1.213
S. Erickson 4 .250 0.500
D.J. Houlton 4 .250 0.650
Jeff Weaver 17 .235 0.529
M. Bradley 46 .217 0.651
J.D. Drew 51 .216 0.740
Cesar Izturis 67 .209 0.547
Mike Edwards 21 .190 0.499
J. Grabowski 16 .188 0.521
Hee-Seop Choi 50 .180 0.606
Oscar Robles 10 .100 0.282
N. Nakamura 11 .091 0.258
Jason Repko 21 .048 0.281

So when we need a pinch hitter, we should call upon DLowe or Weaver!

2005-06-29 17:00:38
325.   dzzrtRatt
Baseball mechanics, such a tricky thing. This is the flaw in sabremetrics. Despite a solid statistical pattern, a major league player can suddenly, suddenly, lose it. Or part of it.

This comes to mind because of a story 6-4-2 blog linked to in the St. Louis Post Dispatch concerning the continuing problems of Mark Mulder (a pitcher we wanted badly, remember?) He doesn't get what happened to the great pitcher he used to be, and the Cardinal pitching coach is still trying to figure it all out with him:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/3EA684B07295A4438625702E00193EE7?OpenDocument

Something like this has to have happened to Cesar Izturis, and I assume he and Wallach are spending long hours reviewing tape of Izzy's solid line drives of last season and this spring to determine what he's unconsciously started doing differently.

2005-06-29 17:02:19
326.   Steve
Now that I think about it, I don't think I became actively anti-Beltre until he started telling stories about that phone call nonsense, then Plaschke wrote that horrendous thumbsucker where he sobbed uncontrollably for hour while trying to keep sportswriters from seeing the estrogen he got from Barry Bonds.
2005-06-29 17:04:10
327.   brendan glynn
Harold Reynolds said that A Perez reminds him of Pedro Guerrero. I don't know what to say after that.
2005-06-29 17:07:38
328.   jasonungar05
for the love of Choi, Bradley and Drew..come on hit em when it counts
2005-06-29 17:07:38
329.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
Yes, my boy Phillips cracked the list.
2005-06-29 17:10:12
330.   Steve
Darth Guerrero!

Harold Reynolds was, and is, clearly insane.

2005-06-29 17:11:03
331.   ddger
327. Maybe Guerrero without the power. Perez looks like he's half awake or has no passion when he plays. Either this is good or maybe it's bad.
2005-06-29 17:11:58
332.   brendan glynn
330

that is what I thought but I really,really want to believe him on this one. can't I have this one?

2005-06-29 17:14:00
333.   ddger
330. Perez can wear Vadar's mask since he shows no emotion.
2005-06-29 17:16:24
334.   Marty
327. Does Perez have a really low IQ like Pedro, because otherwise I can see no similarity. Reynolds is hilarious.
2005-06-29 17:19:11
335.   dzzrtRatt
Oh, the similarities between Guerrero and Perez are obvious. They both have Spanish surnames, but appear to be African American on TV. And they both hit a home run during a major league baseball game.
2005-06-29 17:19:29
336.   ddger
334. I think Perez baseball IQ is pretty low cause he has made some dumb mental errors along with physical errors. His baserunning is terrible just like his bunting. Only his average right now is similar to Pedro but I don't think he can hit .300 over a full season. He might get to .270 or .280 with 10 homers over a full season.
2005-06-29 17:29:38
337.   mrboma
Beltre had a good year last year because he was hurt. His bad ankle kept him from over-striding, over-swinging, loosing his balance, and reaching for bad pitches. His problem this year is that he is healthy.
2005-06-29 17:45:51
338.   Steve
335 -- And they both sort of play third base

If Antonio Perez became Pedro Guerrero, he could stay here for a decade. I would have no problem with that. But Harold Reynolds is like Plaschke with baseball players, and me with the Over/Under. A contrary indicator. He likes Jose Reyes for crying out loud!

2005-06-29 17:53:20
339.   Steve
M. Bradley 46 .217 0.651
J.D. Drew 51 .216 0.740
Cesar Izturis 67 .209 0.547
Mike Edwards 21 .190 0.499
J. Grabowski 16 .188 0.521
Hee-Seop Choi 50 .180 0.606
Oscar Robles 10 .100 0.282
N. Nakamura 11 .091 0.258
Jason Repko 21 .048 0.281

That part of the list just about runs the gamut of love, hate, and everything in between.

2005-06-29 17:56:42
340.   ddger
339. That explains why we are having problems scoring runs along with Tracy's weird logic.
2005-06-29 17:58:34
341.   ddger
This year our starters ERA is 4.5 and bullpen is 4.57. That's pretty odd.
2005-06-29 18:03:29
342.   brendan glynn
311. stubbs
310-I loved Beltre, i'll admit.

312. Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
Belly and Dukie will always have a special place in my heart, and the hearts of others.

Cue Christina: "Awwwww..."

2005-06-29 18:03:34
343.   Suffering Bruin
We won? Cool... I'm going to work when we play more often.

337 - I maintain that Beltre will never, ever have a year like had last season. Of course, he doesn't have to be that good to have a terrific career.

He's struggling but even in his darkest days in L.A. he was a second half player. I thing Beltre will be much better after the all-star break.

2005-06-29 18:13:04
344.   Steve
This made my jaw drop. Ryne Sandberg on Jeff Kent:

He's another guy who isn't having a great year, but I think Kent deserves to start because of the type of career he's had.

Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg and Harold Reynolds. And they call the catcher's equipment the tools of ignorance.

2005-06-29 18:13:59
345.   ddger
343. Do you think Beltre will get 30 HR and 100 RBI's this year.
2005-06-29 18:15:46
346.   ddger
344. Why are there so many former 2nd basemen working as analysts. Does this position require lot of intelligence.
2005-06-29 18:20:18
347.   ddger
I think Beltre will end up with about 20 HR 90 RBI. I'm not sure if that deserves 12M/year.
2005-06-29 18:24:38
348.   Fearing Blue
There's a good review of the Dodgers Top 20 Prospects on John Sickel's site:

http://www.minorleagueball.com

It's the blog entry from Monday.

2005-06-29 18:26:56
349.   Steve
346 -- obviously not
2005-06-29 18:27:08
350.   oldbear
Getting back to yesterday's disussion about fantasy trades involving Izturis.

#1. I wouldnt trade Izturis until after Valentin is clear to play.

I'd still deal Izturis, Guzman, and Jackson for Oswalt/Everett. Thats a deal that I think the Astros would take. Guzman, I'm not as impressed with him as Steve is, because his K's to BB's is terrible. Guzman started out well, but he's tanked. I'd have no problem playing Antonio Perez at SS with LaRoche at 3rd. At this point, Guzman is closer to Ruben Mateo than Miggy Cabrera. Oswalt is Oswalt. A dominant #1 pitcher in his prime.

But I was thinking about aother Izturis trade, albeit slightly minor than the previous ones.

We have a bullpen problem correct? No team can win with Gio/Duaner.. As steve mentions.

Dan Evans/Bill Bavasi up at Seattle have an affinity for toolsy out machines that previously played on the Blue.. Jolbert Cabrera and Adrian Beltre.

How about this:

Dodgers trade SS- Cesar Izturis:
Dodgers receive: RHP Jeff Nelson, and LHP Ron Villone.

Nelson/Villone fix our bullpen problems, Izzy out of the way fixes Trace's crack addiction.

Any takers?

Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2005-06-29 18:28:42
351.   dzzrtRatt
#344--Kent has the third-highest OPS among second basemen in the majors this year. Only Brian Roberts, an AL player, and Chase Utley, are ahead of him. I think the fans can be forgiven for not giving the nod to Chase Utley, who most of us have never heard of.

Sigh. When Kent retires and starts doing commentary, he will be an idiot too. There must be a toxic waste dump under the second base bag in every stadium.

I like catchers. Joe Garagiola, Tim McCarver (yes, Tim McCarver), Joe Torre, Bob Uecker.... These are people who humbly try to understand and appreciate baseball.

2005-06-29 18:32:44
352.   rageon
Perhaps along with 2B being the position where guys are most likely to suffer physical injury, there is something about the position that causes people to go slightly insane. By most accounts, Joe Morgan was extremely intelligent as a player. But as an analysist...well, at least he isn't Rob Dibble. At least HE didn't play 2B. Although that would have been funny.

#326 - yeah, the phone call situation was just a big mess of ignorance and finger pointing. I remember that my first reaction to hearing it was, "Oh, I'm sorry, I wasn't aware that Depo is now consulting with a 25 year old with a 10th grade education on all team decisions." (no offense to the 25-year-olds; I've only got Beltre by 13 months)

I'm actually waiting for Plaschke to write a column complaining about why him and TJ weren't consulted with. Hell, it could be worked into the regular rotation:

- Kent is grumpy/mean/quiet
- Izturis is the man
- Drew is a pansey/soft
- Jim Tracy can do no wrong
- Bradley is a jerk/punk/thug
- Google boy is over his head
- McCourt has no money / wrecked the stadium
--> Bill & TJ should run the team <--
(repeat)

2005-06-29 18:36:18
353.   ddger
Can we can Oswalt for both Perez's(Antonio and Odalis). Neither seem very passionate about playing in the majors.
2005-06-29 18:39:27
354.   oldbear
352- I wish the Blue would have brought back Don Sutton to commentate. I think he's excellent on Atlanta Braves telecasts.

Steve Stone is a good analyst too in my opinion. He was fired by the Cubs because Dusty Baker couldnt take the legit critism Stone put on him.

Have to respect an announcer that is openly critical of his own team.

2005-06-29 18:46:08
355.   ddger
Is Houston looking to deal Oswalt. I can't imagine why they would since Clemens is probably in his last year if he isn't traded this year. It's so hard to get a dominant #1. Penny is more like a #2 even though Depo thinks he's #1.
2005-06-29 19:00:47
356.   dzzrtRatt
355...I think most of the trade speculation on this site lately is sheer wishful thinking. I love Dodger Thoughts, and the community that posts to it. But the collective wisdom seems to fail when it comes to trades. The thing that gets forgotten over and over is that the Dodgers are not the only team that needs new players. The trades won't be based on comparative value. We will probably give up significantly more than we get, if we make a deal this summer. The price for a Roy Oswalt will be ridiculous. Our only edge is we have money and could take on a high salary if asked. But that's a cost too.
2005-06-29 19:20:01
357.   fanerman91
The other thing about proposing trades is that none of us have the ear of DePo or any other GM... so, even if we come up with something, the chances of it happening are well, slim.
2005-06-29 19:25:50
358.   bokonon42
357- Never fear, stubbs has sources. He can be our in.
2005-06-29 19:34:16
359.   bokonon42
Check out George Herman Antonio Perez's minor league stats. Tampa Bay tried to convert him into a relief pitcher?

That gives me a great idea. Wunsch comes in as a LOOGy, right? But say the guy on deck is a righty, and the guy in the whole is another lefty. Wunsch gets the first lefty, then he and Perez switch positions. Perez gets the righty, then they switch back. How could it fail?

2005-06-29 19:35:33
360.   bokonon42
"in the hole," even.
2005-06-29 19:48:29
361.   patsweetpat
#350: I'm an M's fan, and trust me, you don't want to trade Izturis for Nelson and Villone. Nelson is 90 years old, his slider doesn't bite like it used to, and Villone is replacement-level at best.

That'd be a steal for the M's.

2005-06-29 20:08:42
362.   db1022
#361 - Yeah, I'm not feeling the M's deal.

It was joked about last night, but I think it's a best fit with the Twins. Izturis makes a reasonable salary, and he'd clearly be an upgrade over Cristian Guzman, whom the Twins tolerated for a good 5 years.

2005-06-29 21:31:48
363.   patsweetpat
I'm late to this conversation, but why the desire to trade Izturis? Yes, he's slumping lately, but on balance, he still a great player to have in a Dodger jersey.
2005-06-29 21:42:51
364.   Fearing Blue
#362: The only problem with the Twins is they may believe Jason Bartlett is their future at SS, even with his struggles this year. Somewhat interestingly, at 25 years old, Bartlett is the same age as Izturis. Additionally, with Kubel on the shelf for the year after ACL surgery, there isn't an obvious package that we would ask for in return.

The likeliest trading partner I can come up with is the the Reds. Though Felipe Lopez is performing well with the bat, there are serious questions about whether he will be able to stick at SS due to his defense. Aaron Harang would obviously have to be the centerpiece coming back, but he's definitely not the dominant starter I would be hoping for.

One potentially creative match is the Braves. Rafael Furcal is a free agent after this season, and the Braves don't seem to have a solution for next year and beyond. If we were willing to take on salary, we might be able to do a SS swap, getting a good prospect or two in return, perhaps either Kylie Davies or Kelly Johnson. On the other hand, this does not satisfy my original trading condition, which is getting a dominant starting pitcher. The only way this trade would make sense is if we were confident in a replacement for next year, which, at this point, we are not. Perez and Guzman both have serious defensive concerns associated with them.

2005-06-29 21:54:01
365.   Fearing Blue
#363: His violent regression in June towards his abysmal career averages is certainly a motivating factor. Even with the slump, his batting average on balls in play has settled at .307, which is probably about where it's going to stick. Thus, though he's not going to continue being as bad as he has been in June (.098/.149/.110), a .280/.325/.350 (.675 OPS) line going forward seems like a good projection. Additionally, many people, including myself, are frustrated that Jim Tracy continues to allow Izturis to give up an easy out to start each game.

But, I think moreso this is just an intellectual exercise in order to generate some excitement that the Dodgers have been lacking on the field. In terms of the gap between perceived market value and actual value, Izturis may be the best trading chip the Dodgers have. In that regard, he's very similar to Paul LoDuca last year.

2005-06-29 23:53:20
366.   Xeifrank
Nice win today. Was a huge game for us, perhaps not so huge for the Pads.

For 8 2/3 innings Izturis is the #9 hitter?? What kind of logic is that Jon? haha. Yeah I guess you could say that, but he also has one more at bat than anyone else at the beginning of that stint and there won't be any other player on the team with more plate appearances. Funny nonetheless.
vr, Xei

2005-06-29 23:54:48
367.   Xeifrank
Ex Dodger Adrian Beltre hit a home run tonight, breaking a streak where he had well over 100 at bats without a dinger. Ex Dodger Paul LoDuca delivered big time in the 13th inning rally against the Braves tonight. Not sure what Shawn Green did. :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-30 00:14:10
368.   dzzrtRatt
Green could've tied up the Snakes' game with the Giants, or even won it with a homer. Instead, he smacked a grounder that the Giants' second baseman threw home to get Luis Gonzalez in a rundown. Craig Counsell popped up and that was all she wrote.
2005-06-30 02:00:34
369.   Bob Timmermann
Hi, did I miss anything?

Yesterday (Wednesday for me) I got to see the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters shut out the Seibu Lions, 4-0.

The Fighters used FIVE pitchers and the starter only went two and didn't leave with an injury. He left with being bad.

Enjoy the day off. I will be trying to see the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles tomorrow. They will be playing the Fighters also. Weather permitting.

2005-06-30 08:08:19
370.   db1022
#365 - Fearing, can you give us some defensive efficiency stats for Izturis? The majority of Izturis' value is locked up in his defense. I'm curious to see if the numbers tell us that his defense has slipped as much as it appears to have.
2005-06-30 08:32:57
371.   Fearing Blue
#370: Sure thing.. I'll give a whole slew of them:

From Baseball Prospectus:

RAR (Runs Above Replacement): 18
RAA (Runs Above Average): 3
RATE (Fielding Rate, 100 is Average): 104

From Hardball Times:

FWS (Fielding Win Shares): 2.0 (18th out of 49, includes non-qualified)

From ESPN.com:

FPCT (Fielding Percent): .976 (13th out of 26)
RF (Range Factor): 4.70 (10th out of 26)
ZR (Zone Rating): .847 (11th out of 26)

The gist is that statistically, Cesar is a slightly above-average shortstop defensively. On the other hand, it's not clear that he is worse this year than last. A couple of last year's statistics were better (FPCT .985 & ZR .881) and a couple were worse (RF 4.31 & Rate 98). My guess is that's he's only a bit worse this year, mostly due to the increased error rate.

2005-06-30 08:35:45
372.   db1022
#371 - Wow, ask and thou shalt receive. Thanks.

To my eyes, his defense doesn't "pop" like it did last year. Maybe I'm not watching enough Baseball Tonight.

2005-06-30 08:36:22
373.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 370

I myself had a similar thought when I look at Fearing Blue's reasonable (and depressing) offensive projection for Izzy's season. However, I can't find BPro's a separate breakdown fielding metrics on its free site. Using ESPN's fielding stats, Izzy is a disappointing eighth in Zone Rating among NL SS. He was first by a healthy margin last season. I believe Fearing Blue had put up some VORP numbers recently among SS, with Izzy not looking so hot, which include the fielding metrics.

WWSH

2005-06-30 08:38:29
374.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 373

Well, I wouldn't even have bothered to write that if I had seen 371 go up. =)

WWSH

2005-06-30 08:41:03
375.   stubbs
Decent Article about if we are buying or selling:

http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~28541~2944960,00.html

Point about the Padres having more signficant injuries is valid.

2005-06-30 08:43:44
376.   stubbs
373-I think he has to be hurt...Khalil Greene looked better the last few days.

I love the Izturis stat that he didnt make one error last year on a ground ball.

2005-06-30 08:54:30
377.   Fearing Blue
#375: Even though the article states otherwise, the Dodgers are still being hit harder by injuries than the Padres.

Milton Bradley, Odalis Perez, Eric Gagne, Wilson Alvarez, Jose Valentin, and Ricky Ledee contribute more value than Mark Loretta, Ramon Hernandez, Adam Eaton, and Phil Nevin on a game-by-game basis.

2005-06-30 08:57:24
378.   Fearing Blue
#376: It's possible that he's playing hurt and not telling anyone. That would explain the reduced speed as well (GIDPs and CSs). Another possibility is that he bulked up in the offseason at the expense of speed and flexibility. Of course, that hasn't translated into any actual power, I've just felt like he looks bulkier this year. Unfortunately, I don't know where to get year-to-year player weight data to verify my claims.
2005-06-30 08:59:00
379.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 376

I dunno stubbs--if the fielding metrics are right, then Izzy's slight regression on defense is probably just an off-year. I certainly don't think his offensive production needs to be explained by injury. His minor league offensive stats were never very impressive, and it was never really clear that his respectable OPS of 710 last season was really his actual talent level.

WWSH

2005-06-30 08:59:35
380.   stubbs
377-Gagne probably makes our injuries worse, but Loretta is their best player, Hernandez is good, Eaton was probably an all-star and Nevin hits cleanup for them. Im not so sure I agree.
2005-06-30 09:01:12
381.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 378

I believe that I've read an article that says Izzy did indeed try to add more muscle in the off-season. He seemed to wear down last season, and I think this was his idea to try to prevent that again. That, and of all things, making sure to get up early enough to eat breakfast! The bulking up may be one of those well-intentioned ideas that backfired.

WWSH

2005-06-30 09:01:41
382.   heato
from the Daily News (on Perez's attempted bunt before his homerun):

"I turned around and screamed at (third-base coach) Jim Lett, 'What's he doing here?,"' said Tracy, who hadn't called for the bunt.

2005-06-30 09:02:48
383.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 381

Of course, Izzy may promptly go on the same sort of tear he started the season, making skeptics like me look foolish. He's young enough I think that he still has some upside with the bat, regardless of his minor league numbers.

WWSH

2005-06-30 09:19:43
384.   db1022
#383 - Yeah he'll get hot, but then he'll cool off. It's the overall that you look at. He's about a .280 hitter. He doesn't walk. He doesn't hit for power. No way he's a productive leadoff hitter with an OBP in the .320 range.

And if he continues to be an average to slightly above average fielder, what exactly is his value?

2005-06-30 09:42:37
385.   Fearing Blue
#383: Rageon posted this in #3. Izturis' hot streak early in the season was fueled by a .380 batting average on balls in play over a two month period. He may have another lucky streak like that, but it's unlikely.
2005-06-30 09:43:15
386.   Benaiah
384 - Last year he was an excellent fielder and an average SS hitter. Their is value in getting that combo for cheap. I think he can be a better hitter than .280. If he would have hit within spitting distance of the Mendoza line for June he would still be hitting above .300. While a 320-340 OBP is not all that valuable, especially from the lead off hitter, a .300BA plus .040 BB/AB is more valuable than 280 plus .060 BB. If he can get back up into the .290-.300 range he would be worth much more than 3 million a year.
2005-06-30 09:45:33
387.   Benaiah
385 - What was his LD% during this period? While LD% would not create a BABIP close to .400 it might move it to .330 to .350.
2005-06-30 09:50:22
388.   db1022
#386 - June is over, but is his slump?
2005-06-30 10:03:09
389.   Benaiah
388 - Doesn't look like it, but unless he becomes one of those cautionary tales he will eventually break out of his slump.
2005-06-30 10:15:18
390.   db1022
#389 - Not sure what you mean by "cautionary tales". I think he'll end up being a guy that hits anywhere from .270 to .290 (depending on how he finishes the season - on a good streak or a bad streak).

The real wild card is his defense. He really needs to get back to being a top 3 guy.

2005-06-30 10:36:38
391.   Fearing Blue
#387: Hardball Times does not breakdown LD% over time. Cesar's overall LD% is 23.0% with a BABIP of .307. Studes used a linear regression model to calculate BABIP based on LD%, FB%, and K%:

http://tinyurl.com/br6go

Based on this formula, Cesar's BABIP would be around .320, which would correspond to a .287 overall batting average. But, this could still be a little high, because in the case of slap-happy hitters, K's may not be an indicator of additional power.

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