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Seconds are good at any meal, but today, I'm offering you thirds. And it might not digest well.
The Dodgers followed a 27-27 opening third to the season with a 21-33 pratfall in the middle third, leaving them 48-60 on the year. Putting aside the fact that they're still in the National League West race, the numbers just don't look good.
Batting Statistics
Player | PA | OPS | EQA | Batting WS | Fielding WS | WSAB | VORP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Kent | 430 | .910 | .311 | 19.0 | 2.4 | 13 | 44.3 |
J.D. Drew | 311 | .931 | .323 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 8 | 30.4 |
Antonio Perez | 206 | .856 | .301 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 18.5 |
Milton Bradley | 252 | .812 | .283 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 16.2 |
Olmedo Saenz | 229 | .856 | .291 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 5 | 15.5 |
Hee Seop Choi | 284 | .802 | .278 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 1 | 12.0 |
Ricky Ledee | 189 | .769 | .271 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 2 | 7.8 |
Jason Phillips | 348 | .674 | .237 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 5.9 |
Cesar Izturis | 414 | .647 | .229 | 3.2 | 2.6 | -2 | 4.7 |
Jayson Werth | 228 | .730 | .261 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 3.8 |
Oscar Robles | 176 | .719 | .251 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0 | 2.9 |
Jason Repko | 225 | .696 | .249 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0 | 2.3 |
Paul Bako | 47 | .662 | .249 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1 | 1.3 |
Mike Edwards | 170 | .660 | .234 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -2 | 0.6 |
Jose Valentin | 104 | .654 | .252 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1 | -0.1 |
Chin-Feng Chen | 8 | .500 | .161 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Dioner Navarro | 24 | .491 | .199 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.8 |
Mike Rose | 41 | .531 | .186 | -1.0 | 0.3 | -2 | -1.3 |
Cody Ross | 26 | .392 | .089 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -1 | -3.1 |
Norihiro Nakamura | 41 | .350 | -.046 | -1.5 | 0.2 | -2 | -5.2 |
Jason Grabowski | 115 | .507 | .176 | -0.6 | 0.3 | -2 | -8.0 |
PA = plate appearances, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus
OPS = on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (ESPN.com)
EQA = "A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching," (Baseball Prospectus)
Batting WS = Batting Win Shares (The Hardball Times)
Fielding WS = Fielding Win Shares (The Hardball Times)
WSAB = Win Shares Above Bench Player (The Hardball Times)
VORP = "The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances," (Baseball Prospectus)
To see the 54-Game Review, click the link.
Capsules
Jeff Kent is the 15th most valuable player in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus. Just a great signing.
J.D. Drew was the Dodgers best hitter this season. The only right fielders in baseball with better EQAs are Brian Giles, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. The loss of Drew was enormous.
Had the Dodgers not signed Kent to play second base, Antonio Perez would have been a full-timer there. Given that he has 42 percent of Kent's VORP in 48 percent of his plate appearances (and 38 percent of his fielding win shares), there wouldn't have been much of a dropoff which just goes to show you how valuable Perez might be if he played every day.
The VORP of Milton Bradley was 16.2 after 54 games, so you see what a gap there has been for him in the middle third of the season. Most of that period was spent waiting for him to return; one could also say that we're still waiting.
Olmedo Saenz has had more plate appearances in the second third of the season, but at almost no value. Hee Seop Choi, on the other hand, showed some slight improvement. Because Saenz has spent some time at third base, his value compared to a replacement player is higher. Choi is just about an average first baseman. The Dodgers are simply overloaded on the right side of the infield with Kent, Perez, Saenz and Choi.
Ricky Ledee only picked up 50 plate appearances in the past 54 games, but continued showing himself to be a shrewd pickup when he does play a better than average reserve.
With an EQA of .237, the third-lowest of any Dodger with more than 100 plate appearances, Jason Phillips has simply not been a good hitter. For however long he has lost his starting catching job to Dioner Navarro (a change that might not be permanent in 2005 if Navarro slumps in the field), Phillps has no value. Anything he can do, most everyone else can do better.
The biggest tumble in 2005 Part II is presented to you by Cesar Izturis. Izturis was arguably the team's MVP for the first third of the season, with a VORP of 17.5. As you can see, he is nowhere near that figure now and is even two Win Shares worse than a bench player. His EQA has fallen from .278 to .229 and his OPS from .787 to .647. And note that while Perez has stolen nine bases in 11 attempts, Izturis has swiped seven in 15 attempts. Jayson Werth, whose abilities and health have both been maligned, has contributed about as much to the team this season as Izturis.
Ah, Oscar Robles. On the brink of committing Nakamuracide, Robles started putting balls in play and raised his average into the middle .300s. But now, in a 5 for 48 slump, his season is shaping up to be like the one Choi is alleged of having one giant nothing interrupted by a few weeks of brilliance. Right now, he is a better offensive player than Izturis, however, mainly because he walks twice as often.
Jason Repko has battled back to give the semblance of consistency. Speedy to be sure, he remains a below average hitter, however.
The cryogenic statistics of Paul Bako are looking better as most of his teammates slump, but no doubt freezing Bako's numbers simply spared him similar pain.
Mike Edwards was pretty hot when the Dodgers hit the 54-game mark but even at his best was an average bench player. Now, he is less than that.
Jose Valentin did not return to the lineup with magic powers, unless you account for the fact that he is perhaps the only injured Dodger who completed his injury rehabilitation according to if not ahead of the original schedule.
Chin-Feng Chen finally got a major league hit thank goodness. That really might be one of the top positives of this chapter of Dodger baseball.
Dioner Navarro has been as advertised a weak bat that walks more than it strikes out. A time might come where it becomes clear that Phillips, even with his deficiencies, should still be the starter there. Or, teams might start running on Navarro, rendering him irrelevant for 2005. Or, Navarro might poke that batting average back above .200, and lock down the starting job for the rest of the season. Mike Rose is paying attention.
Cody Ross had his shot and clanked.
Norihiro Nakamura - seems so long ago, doesn't it? The very thought of him points out the strengths and flaws of the "How much worse could he be?" chants that desperate fans muster up. The fact is, Nakamura did so poorly that he truly hasn't earned another shot on a team that is loaded with infielders, however much they may be misused. But he may get that second shot in September callups, and good luck to him if he does.
No hard feelings, Jason Grabowski - but 115 at bats is a lot to soak up a .176 EQA. Grabowski completely neutralized the VORP of Ricky Ledee.
Summary
Here is a lineup for the healthy Dodgers based on the revelations of the above statistics.
Perez, 3B
Ledee, LF/RF
Bradley, CF
Kent, 2B
Choi, 1B
Repko, RF/Valentin, LF
Izturis/Robles, SS
Phillips/Navarro, C
Saenz would make spot starts as well.
Am I ignoring defense? Not that much. Only at third base is there any kind of defensive dropoff between the lineup listed here and the lineup Jim Tracy is making.
The batting order falls off a cliff at the No. 6 spot, with three consecutive below average hitters. But this is the way of making the best of having only six hitters on the active roster, including the fragile Saenz and Ledee, with EQAs above .260.
But of those six players, Tracy has taken to playing only three of them: Kent, Bradley, and Ledee when able. Choi, Perez and Saenz often all sit. The Dodgers have to do better.
Pitching Statistics
Player | IP | HR | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | WS | VORP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Penny | 124.0 | 9 | 5.73 | 1.28 | 3.63 | 8.1 | 26.7 |
Jeff Weaver | 145.1 | 22 | 6.07 | 1.25 | 4.52 | 6.0 | 15.2 |
Derek Lowe | 144.1 | 20 | 5.99 | 1.30 | 3.99 | 6.4 | 9.6 |
Odalis Perez | 84.2 | 10 | 5.85 | 1.20 | 4.46 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
Duaner Sanchez | 60.0 | 6 | 7.95 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.1 | 7.6 |
Elmer Dessens | 34.1 | 4 | 4.46 | 1.19 | 3.41 | 1.9 | 5.7 |
Derek Thompson | 18.0 | 0 | 6.50 | 1.44 | 3.50 | 1.2 | 4.4 |
Eric Gagne | 13.1 | 2 | 14.85 | 0.98 | 2.70 | 2.5 | 4.4 |
Giovanni Carrara | 49.2 | 5 | 7.97 | 1.57 | 4.71 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
Kelly Wunsch | 23.2 | 2 | 8.37 | 1.44 | 4.56 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
Franquelis Osoria | 12.0 | 2 | 2.25 | 1.33 | 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Yhency Brazoban | 45.1 | 7 | 7.15 | 1.35 | 5.16 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Steve Schmoll | 25.2 | 2 | 5.26 | 1.36 | 4.21 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Wilson Alvarez | 22.0 | 7 | 5.73 | 1.50 | 5.73 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Scott Erickson | 55.1 | 12 | 2.44 | 1.57 | 6.02 | -0.3 | -2.0 |
D.J. Houlton | 77.0 | 9 | 6.19 | 1.56 | 5.49 | 0.6 | -2.3 |
Buddy Carlyle | 14.0 | 4 | 8.36 | 1.43 | 8.36 | -1.0 | -4.2 |
Jonathan Broxton | 2.1 | 0 | 15.43 | 3.00 | 7.71 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
Capsules
Brad Penny is the Dodgers' best starting pitcher by miles and miles. And in the second third of the season, his strikeouts per nine innings have increased from 4.59 to 6.53. In the majors, Penny's VORP ranks 33rd , (one of those a reliever) meaning if pitchers were distributed equally, he would be a top No. 2 starter.
Jeff Weaver has done the reverzturis. After posting a VORP of 0.0 through 54 games, he has become the No. 2 pitcher on the staff. He ranks 95th overall in VORP.
Derek Lowe, as has been chronicled before, has been steadily declining as the season goes on his recent eight innings of shutout baseball against Cincinnati being the exception. A pace of 30 home runs allowed is not what the Dodgers bargained for in season one of his four-year contract.
The middle third of the season for Odalis Perez has been even more mediocre than the first third. The bright side of Perez is that he doesn't get blown out only twice in 14 starts this year has he allowed more than four earned runs, and he has never gone fewer than five innings. But his ERA since April 18 is 5.08.
Things would have looked better for Duaner Sanchez before Thursday night he allowed more runs in one inning than he allowed in all of July but he's still the Dodgers' most valuable reliever and fifth most valuable pitcher this year. His strikeout rate continues to improve. His high placement on this list speaks loudly about the Dodger staff, however.
Elmer Dessens, clocking in at No. 6? Sigh. Dessens has the second-best ratio of walks plus hits/innings pitched and some success in keeping the ball in the park.
Derek Thompson is really a sad story. Unlike Eric Gagne, he did not escape a second Tommy John surgery. But he really came through while he was in Los Angeles posting a higher strikeout ration than any of the current starting five and allowing no home runs. Like Dessens, he allowed baserunners but wasn't victimized by them.
Eric Gagne - eighth-most valuable with 13 1/3 innings. He didn't allow a home run after the first inning he pitched, and was still striking out batters like nobody's business with his B material. What a shame.
Giovanni Carrara has ended up allowing baserunners as often as Scott Erickson yet still has more wins than Brad Penny. Someone alert Joe Morgan. Make no mistake, people got on base against Kelly Wunsch, too.
Franquelis Osoria got only three of his 36 outs by strikeout, which is discouraging, but he did help out.
Growing pains for Yhency Brazoban, who has the talent but not the consistency. No need, though, to send Yhency from whency came.
Steve Schmoll has shown improvement the second time around.
Wilson Alvarez - seven home runs in 22 innings? Worse than Scott Erickson? Tough way to go.
D.J. Houlton, frankly, has not been that good either. But to put things in perspective, since June, he has been just about as good a starting pitcher as Perez.
Buddy Carlyle? My pick to click from Spring Training? Never give up never surrender!
And as for Jonathan Broxton, we'll wait and see. Promising for the future - for now, he's wooly and wild.
Summary
Let's say the Dodgers' best hitter and best pitcher were not injured. If that were the case, Jim Tracy would actually have a decent heart of the lineup at his disposal. But he'd still have a struggling pitching staff.
The Dodger season fell apart in May when the starting pitchers severely underperformed. Since then, the offense ran into injury- and lineup-induced trouble, letting the pitchers off the hook. In turn, the moundsmen have done their part in reducing what was a ridiculous rate of allowing home runs.
But it has still been a lousy staff. Penny and Weaver have been steady in the middle third of 2005, but they are the only two Dodger pitchers in the top 150 of VORP. Odalis Perez might have made it without injuries, but just at the bottom. Only five pitchers on the entire staff have ERAs below 4.00 three of those are relievers, two of those injured.
Lowe, Houlton and Perez look plausible as starters, but they haven't been getting the job done. You can't allow three or four runs in six innings anymore in Gagne-free Dodgertown and expect the bullpen to back you up. No doubt, people will continue to look to the offense, but it is here where the Dodgers can overcome all their ailments. Houlton is young; Perez and Lowe have had past success. Only if those guys can start holding opponents to two runs per six innings do the Dodgers have a shot at winning their woebegone division. And it's not as if it isn't possible against NL West competition.
But it's time to be impatient. It's time to be cynical. It's not just about the offense and it's not just about the manager. Almost none of the pitchers have been holding up their end of the deal and no one ever talks about it.
I was trying to make that point in the last discussion.
That's an excellent and comprehensive summary of the season.
I'm going to state the obvious in a different way for discussion's sake: How bad must APerez be as a third baseman that a manager so desperate for someone, anyone to play that position with a reasonable level of competency no longer considers him a candidate for that position on the field? For the love of God, even Choi makes an occasional appearance at first base.
I wish APerez was playing every day, but if Shelby says he's not ready for the outfield, and he's not a third baseman, and Kent won't move to first, what does one do? We need an outfielder, we have two second basemen - even a minor trade might help win a pennant. (Assuming Tracy never brings in a reliever, of course.)
"Yeah, sorry I'm late guys. I was busy making an online transaction with my source Shifty J."
if he doesn't learn quickly to throw a fast ball instead of a curve to second base, we may see Martin next...
Unless I'm totally wrong about that, what prompted the change in perspective?
Yesterday, someone raised a point about Riggleman that is intriguing. While he was the bench coach, none of us seemed to have too much issue with Tracy. Now that he's gone, we're totally confused by his lack of internal consistency with decision making. It could be a fallacy to assume that Riggleman's departure is what is causing this season's madness, but it DOES make me wonder...
Perez 3B
Drew RF
Dunn LF
Bradley CF
Kent 2B
Choi 1B
Navarro / Martin / Phillips C
Izturis/Robles SS
P
bench:
Saenz
Ledee
LaRoche
C
Repko
SS
not Jim Tracy
I think Tracy was making headscratchers before this season, but the team was doing well enough that they weren't as noticeable.
Pitchers seem to skip AAA, but it doesn't seem as common for hitters. I would think that Young and Aybar will be more likely to get called up sometime next year.
Perez
Drew
Bradley
Kent
Dunn (LF of choice, I guess. Giles, etc.)
Choi
C
Izturis
I also don't think we have a chance of getting Giles... apparently he's quite happy with the Padres and is also an SD native.
Stan from Tacoma
It's a little depressing that that is the best line-up we can put out right now.
i mean, even without dunn, we haven't actually had that lineup since may or something, right? bradley was gone, now drew is gone, choi doesn't play, perez doesn't either, izturis was hurt, phillips was catching 90% of the time... anyway i don't think that's a .500 lineup at ALL. and with an addition like dunn, if the players maintain any kind of good health for most of the season, on paper that's a division winner and a contender in the NL playoffs.
why can't the Dodgers ever be that team that brings up young players from their system who produce at least modestly, but consistently? why can't we ever be that team?
Soon.
39
Yeah Perez has been a bit lucky. He's not gonna hit .330 forever. Our line-up could certainly use a new LF and 3B.
Stan from Tacoma
Repko is finally starting to hit, going the other way, raising his batting average, getting on base...all the while being the best defensive outfielder on the team...
so Tracy decides he needs a rest...
move over, Hee Seop
it has always been curious to me that while other teams find these studs and they make the majors in 2 years...we always need to develop them over a period of 3 or 4 or more
laroche and loney will be 22, and that is around the age when good players staret to "get it" and it clicks. I expect big things out of them next year in vegas.
vr, Xei
Joe you wrote:
i'm going to state the obvious in a different way for discussion's sake: How bad must APerez be as a third baseman that a manager so desperate for someone, anyone to play that position with a reasonable level of competency no longer considers him a candidate for that position on the field
But what if you had written the following:
I'm going to state the obvious in a different way for discussion's sake: How bad must Tracy be as a manager that a team so desperate for someone, anyone to play that position with a reasonable level of competency no longer considers him a candidate for that position on the field
Playing Perz a few times and declaring him unfit to play Third is the mistake. There is nothing in Perez's minor league or major league history that says he cannot play an adequate thrid and contribute well to the offense. You're blaming the victim. This is what is obvious to me. I realize you brought it up for discussion but I also think you believe it through reading your previous posts.
http://tinyurl.com/832zj
Also, BA has recognized Russell Mitchell as a legitimate prospect
Delwyn Young is now 8-21 (small sample size, I know) with 4 doubles and 2 walks. Vegas isn't going anywhere, he has no glove at 2nd, and is on the 40 man. Should we risk playing him in the OF for a September (or earlier) callup? He can't do much worse than Valentin (who I admit I am not very fond of)
all prospects cant just be defined by one set of rules. you have to take each differently, especially ones that have been higher touted that others.
scouts love laroche and loney, saying that when developed, they have the tools needed to be very good major league players. Usually now (ages 21-23) is when these type of herald prospects start turning the corner and their learing curve is excelerated.
i just expect big years out of these two next year in vegas, with laroche being called up mid year but loney not because of being blocked by choi.
On Thursday June 4, 1964 the Los Angeles Dodgers played the first place Philadelphia Phillies at Connie Mack Stadium in the concluding game of a three game series. It was a school night for me so I listened to the game called by Phillies broadcasters By Saam, Bill Campbell and Ritchie Ashburn on the radio.
On the mound for the Dodgers was Sandy Koufax. With the Phillies in first place and the best pitcher in baseball to oppose them, 29,709 people who evidently did not have to go to school the next day were on hand to see the contest.
Chris Short, a fine lefthander who had won 20 games the previous season, was on the mound for Philadelphia. Koufax and Short were both magnificient. Koufax retired the side in order through the first three innings. With two out in the Philadelphia fourth, Koufax walked Dick Allen. Allen was caught stealing by catcher Doug Camilli to end the inning.
The Dodgers did little to threaten Short until the seventh inning. Jim Gilliam opened the Dodger seventh with a single to center. Tommy Davis moved Gilliam to third with a single to right. Frank Howard followed with a homerun to give Sandy all the offense he would need.
When the Dodgers broke through with the three runs, all attention shifted to Koufax. Except for the fourth inning walk to Allen, Sandy was perfect through the first six innings.
With a no-hitter on the line, Walt Alston shifted his line-up to put his best defensive team on the field. Frank Howard was replaced by rookie Wes Parker in right and Ron Fairly replaced Ken McMullen at first. Koufax breezed through the seventh, eighth and ninth innings en route to the third no-hitter in his career.
Sandy struck out 12 on the night and the fourth inning walk to Allen was the only baserunner he allowed. The time of game was one hour and fifty-five minutes, so I would have had plenty of time to get home from Philadelphia, get to bed, and attend school next day. Alas, it was not to be. I am thankful I got to listen to the game and though I did not see him that night, I feel privileged I saw him pitch in person many times during his remarkable career.
Thanks to retrosheet, Bob Timmermann and Jon
Stan from Tacoma
I know he's young and hasn't had any time in the big leagues yet, but especially with Martin doing what he is in the minors, I now wish that we hadn't traded Green. He'd be useful (I'm hoping) to the Dodgers this year, and Navarro may not end up being our catcher for the future. And all this while ignoring the obvious... we are paying most of Green's salary this year. Anyone else have second thoughts on that trade??
fortunately, I look at this blog and sports in general as being all in fun...
I find it extremely difficult to take serious someone playing a game, getting paid ungodly amounts of money, and having issues...
just like I can't take seriously strong opinions from casual fans like myself who profess to have insights by whatever method they use...
the truth is, some of the best memories of the Dodgers over the years have been with teams that weren't supposed to win, and that made it all the sweeter
now I'll go to my room and sit in the corner and think about it, and I won't come out until I can explain myself...
now this is where the "FJT" part comes in handy.
If LaRoche takes over at 3B before 2007, Lowell could become the new Saenz, albeit expensive. Even this year he's killed lefties.
The following players would make a kickass bench (Valentin, Perez, Robles, Saenz, Edwards, Philips, Ledee, Rekpo) if we had a decent starting team. We don't and thus our team blows chunks.
Navarro throw out a runner or get his first RBI.
I totally sympathize with what you said about the Braves, but it's kind of interesting to actually look at their team composition:
1b Laroche (26)
2b Giles (29)
ss Furcal (27)
3b Chipper (33)
lf Johnson (23)
cf Andrum (28)
rf Langerhans (25)
4of Francoeur (21)
Now, Francoeur is going nuts right now, but he's clearly overperforming (I think he could be good, but he's obviously not going to OPS over 1200; so far in 64 PAs he's struck out 13 times and drawn nary a walk). Johnson and Langerhans (OPS of 698,724, respectively) are not setting the world on fire. When you look at the rest of the guys (the Jones brothers, Furcal, Giles, Estrada) you see a good, young team, yes, but not exactly a bunch of "kids" as is so often advertised. Obviously, the Braves have done a remarkable job of bringin guys up, and some of them have had good success at a young age, but even Andruw Jones, the next Griffey/Mantle/Mays didn't OPS over 900 until he was 23, in his fifth year facing big league pitching, and had only done it once before this year. It seems like what Fearing has been saying all along is that, nine times out of ten (or more) a 22 year old, even a hyped one, is not going to be able to make sustained and substantial contributions to the big league team.
So, we're going to have to be patient and watch our farm talent develop. A good franchise, like the Braves, has a farm system that is steadily producing major league talent, which is ready to step in when big leaguers become too expensive or too old or both. The Dodgers, as we all know, have gone through a long patch where they were not, from top to bottom, a good franchise. Hopefully things have turned around, and there are indicators that they have. But only time will tell for certain.
they can't do worse than what we have now, and maybe we have greater flexibility for trades
stupid idea, I know...I'll go back to my room now
"However only playing time will give us an answer"
Agreed. that's the truth.
86 - that's funny...and if Young is in that class, why isn't he in the majors yet?
85 - ABSOLUTELY!! [not]
Well, I think Jason Grabowski is Exhibit A for the difference between minor league ability and major league ability. Grabs tears up AAA, but stinks in the Show. Not that everyone will have that big a dropoff. But to assume that our minor leaguers "can't do worse than what we have now" is, well, to assume something not in evidence. They actually COULD do a lot worse.
The frustrating thing, for me, is not waiting for the kids to develop. We knew we'd have to wait. It's watching while Tracy benches better options than he plays. With the injuries, esp. to Drew and Gagne, this team is not very good, but it could be better than it is with just a few different managerial decisions. That the difference might be enough to win the division rather than finish 3rd doesn't really matter to me, because I think any NL West winner will exit the playoffs quickly.
I'd like to see the "really bad defense" projections. can you point me in the right direction?
Wasn't he complementing A Perez early in the season and then after several bad games, Tracy just completely changed his mind.
Tracy show very little patience for certain players (Perez, Choi) while he gives too long a leash to players like (Izturis, Robles, Werth, Phillips).
Tracy definitely prefers SCRAPPY players so even player like Dunn would not have fit in here.
It seems too obvious that he shows too much favoritism and not enough objectivity.
We need a manager who can be objective and not let his personal feelings make the decisions.
look at Dusty Baker, for example...he never met a starter who he didn't leave in for at least 9 innings
1) Abilities in the Clutch (RISP)
2) Perceived Defensive Ability (# errors)
3) Scrap Factor (diving for balls out of reach)
4) Situational Hitting (bunting)
5) Professional Hitting (does this mean anything?)
That list looks accurate
Perez,Antonio 25 64 aaa LA 476 64 114 19 3 16 61 42 62 15 16 239 301 393 694 8% 87% 0.68 93 98 3.75 32
The defense they could not have projected for him as a 3b because he'd never played there. Baseball Prospectus had him as -9 as a SS in 2004 and since 2002 he has not posted a positive defensive number at any position.
The important number above are the 239 average, 301 OBA, 393 slug %.
Even still A Perez has impressed me and I wish he'd get the at bats to see if he can produce at 270/325/410 which would be adequate for a 3b but nothing to get excited about as Mike Edwards could probably do that. None of that is going to help this team win if we have the huge offensive holes at catcher, 1st, RF, LF that we are currently carrying.
119 -- FB provided a very good summary of the translation chart in 108. Situational hitting is bunting, indeed. I had thought at one point it was hit and run ability, but he used it at one point to describe Repko, who, with 134 strikeouts, is basically the last person to hit and run with (along with Choi and Valentin).
It may also mean "Player Tracy Likes."
who said this...quick...
So you're saying the problem is our front office and on-field chemistry?
Too bad we can't erase Tracy's memory each day so that he has to start from new.
4.91 ERA, 33 IP, 30 Ks, 12 BBs, 5 HRs
Mr. Burns: "Quick, Smithers. Get the amnesia ray!"
Smithers: "You mean the revolver?"
Mr. Burns: "Precisely."
1) Perceived Defensive Ability (# errors)
2) Scrap Factor (diving for balls out of reach)
3) Abilities in the Clutch (RISP)
4) Situational Hitting (bunting)
5) Professional Hitting (veteran/old)
And of course, Choi meets none of the key Tracy criteria, which is why he gets to watch the game from the bench.
But how scrappy is Phillips?
extolls the professional hitter qualities demonstrated by a certain St. Louis first baseman. Hey, maybe we do need one of those!
Then again, there's this: http://tinyurl.com/e44j9
explaining the professionalism of Joe Randa.
Or this: http://tinyurl.com/crod6
pegging Rondell White as a practitioner of the art of professional hitting. (Extra credit for this article, which discusses how the Tigers, who thought Bip Roberts would fill their professional hitter void, soon learned he was nothing but a "professional pain in the neck")
Final answer: the beautiful thing about a professional hitter is you can find one just about anywhere you look, if you look hard enough (and use your imagination).
IMDb shows your quote from Captain Kirk to Khan.
Beltre-maybe the worse FA signing in history if he doesn't turn it around. I will state right here that I wanted Beltre signed but probably not at the price that Seattle was suckered into.
Finley- is there any doubt he is done-never wanted him as I saw him play CF last year and thought he was way overrated as a fielder and I like my centerfielders to be able to chase down the balls..
Lima-hee hee- I wanted him at a cheap price
Cora-never liked him much, most overrated utility player in Dodger media history.
Jose Hernandez-he we could use but not at the price that Cleveland gave him.
All in all some very astute non moves.
Goggles = scrappy?
Maybe JT is in Gagne withdrawl.
"not the lineup of a contender... Robles and Repko belong in the Pacific Coast League...
Phillips was playing first base, apparently because Jim Tracy just can't bear watching Hee Seop Choi strike out anymore... I know everybody can't have lineups like those of the Red Sox and Yankees. But we're talking about the Dodgers here. Big market, big crowds, big TV audience."
In google, type:
-insert subject- site:dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com
Someone should look into this.
BTW, how you create links to previous posts?
Izturis
Robles
Bradley
Kent
Valentin
Ledee
Perez
Navarro
Apparently a 'source' close to the front office has said that management is not happy with Tracy and alternatives are being looked at. Grady Little was the only name mentioned.
This was said to have been on WFAN in NY, but I did not hear it first hand so ...
http://tinyurl.com/bjxpr
Teaser: "'I warmed up in that bullpen out there in right field,' Dodgers General Manager Paul DePodesta said, waving his hands across [RFK] field."
And if you haven't had enough of bemoaning the Fate of Choi, the same guy also has a roundup piece in the post that addresses the question: "Are the Dodgers through with Hee-Seop Choi?"
http://tinyurl.com/bfr4f
I'll just say, I pass these along only because of their great relevance to issues aired on this site; neither has particularly impressive information or analysis.
Fogg is getting destroyed by lefties this year, so...
Izzy
Robles
Bradley
Kent
Sanez
Valetin
Navarro
Repko
Lowe
Repko and Saenz are meant as sarcasm from the initial comment, just so you know
Can I get an amen, brother!!!
Izturis
Robles
Bradley
Kent
Valentin
Perez
Navarro
Repko
Lowe
Robles
Bradley
Kent
Ledee
Valentin
Choi
Navarro
Lowe
The left-handed thing. And a little optimism.
Also, we won't have as many topics to discuss on this site.
Phillips is back? Noooooooo.
the disturbing thing was the quote from tracy at the end of the choi discussion. did someone directly ask him about choi, and the answer was "you do what's best for your team"???
man, i hate jim tracy so much.
Lefties kill Fogg, so let's play Saenz. I'm surprised Ledee got the start though
SS Izzy
3B Robles
CF Bradley
2B Kent
RF Ledee
1B Saenz
LF Valentin
C Navarro
P Lowe
CF Redman
3B Sanchez
LF Bay
RF Mackowiak
1B Eldred
2B Castillo
C Doumit
SS Wilson
P Fogg
Check 173.
Just put brackets outside of the number.
Like this: [ 173 ]
Excepw with no spaces.
So Tracy refuses to start Choi against a pitcher that gets killed by lefties? How exactly did Choi go from "platoon with Saenz" to "plays against soft-tossing righties with no weird arm angles" to "last player off the bench?"
Well, my moment of optimism is gone.
(I know, I know...)
...
...
now.
well, there's always the first-place Los Angeles Angels as they struggle to cool off the hottest team in baseball, Tampa Ray's own Debbil Rays.
And yet, I'll be on the sofa too in about half an hour, watching two sub-.500 teams battle it out in front of about 6,000 half-dead fans.
YES. HAMMER--->NAIL. POW.
i mean, that's something i sort of intuitively grasped and knew, but you articulating it really strikes it home. it's almost diabolical.
Hopefully the maxim will have immediate results starting tonight with a decent game by Lowe, a huge night for Choi, and a Tracy move that is not idiotic.
In all seriousness (and admittedly without checking the stats carefully), I submit that our pitching problems can be traced to one item: giving up an abnormal amount of home runs, particularly to hitters that have no business hitting them.
my reaction, no matter who comes into pitch lately, is "throw strikes, dammit!"...but they don't, and when they do, they groove it
I have always believed that pitching wins games and series...we don't have it
broxton's not that wild, from what i saw. i felt he was close and maybe getting squeezed by the umps.
Off topic, where the hell does the term banjo hitter come from??
banjo hitter
A batter who lacks power. A banjo hitter usually hits bloop singles, often just past the infield dirt, and would have a low slugging percentage. The name has said to come from the twanging sound of the batter's swing like that of a banjo.
For me, it's pretty damn soon. Even a five-game deficit looks steep right now. I think this series will tell if we're remotely still in the hunt or not. If we can take 2 of 3, I'll hang on to a sliver of hope.
But now he seems passive and befuddled as he tries to plug way too many leaks in the dike. He's got to figure out veterans like Lowe and Alvarez, while giving attention to newbies like Broxton, Schmoll, while turning Yhency into a reliable closer and Sanchez into a setup man. It's too much for the old coot. Too many challenges.
I agree but what can you do with the pitchers? we don't have two extra starting pitchers sitting on the bench. I think we have two of the better hitters sitting on the bench everyday.
Lefties hit Fogg for .355 this season and Tracy still doesn't start Choi. The LA Times said they would expect Choi in the lineup tonight because of that stat. I hope they follow up with a question for Tracy.
Since the all star break
26 2/3 24 H 2 HR 7 BB 16 K 3.38 ERA 1.16 WHIP
Jeff Weaver's numbers have been hurt more than any other starting pitcher on the Dodgers by Jimbo's managing. Weaver stays in the game until he gets hammered.
And I'll end my post with the customary slogan, Fire Jimbo!
Face it, right now were a crappy team from top to bottom. Thank goodness Depo traded for Penny but I sure wish he'd closed the purse strings when pursuing Lowe and OP. 1000's of words were spent by Depo supporters trying to come up with some reason why he spent so much money on one of the worse starters in the AL last year. In this case it looks like he struck out and if Lowe is lousy in his 1st year, think how it will look in year 4 when were paying him 11 million to be a setup man. Bowden has done a better job of piecing together a bullpen then Depo has. All in all a very disapointing year for me at every level. I had hoped that E Jackson would have forced his way into the rotation and that by now Joel Guzman would be ready to play 3b. Instead our ML team has crapped out and while our prospects continue to flourish none have proven ready to step up and help the big club and Depo for good or bad refused to trade for help.
I've accepted that a .500 (or slightly under) team can win the West. But the Dodgers still have to play better than .500 to reach that point -- and over the last couple of months (with a few brief exceptions) we haven't been able to do so.
So, with your posited scenario, I'd take the bitter road of thinking we should be 3 out instead of 4. :)
Starting Pitcher: Lowe (7-11)?
Relief Pitcher: Brazoban (2-6), Alvarez (1-4)?
Combined (10-21).
If we only won about half of these (16-15) we would be in 1st place?
At least the Pirates were as nice to Lowe as the Dodgers were to Fogg
Padres up 1-0 on a Sweeney single
Dang, Ledee just missed that
I think we're in a similar "rut" now...
226 - in that case i'll think about it :)
that should have been a comment in the 7th inning. do you have the time to stick around?
D'Backs: No, I insist, you take it.
lather, rinse, repeat.
I have tried to apply for his job.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2125778
274 Try by this inning
What kind of crazy offseason will the Dodgers have, I wonder. So much to do.
Sheesh, tough crowd. Just b/c we want Choi to play doesn't mean we should take it out on Saenz.
therefore, if you combine giles and kent, you will have a better team next year.
trust me i did all the math..
http://www.mobilebaybears.com/webcam.asp
baybears webcame.
billingsley vs carillo, should start soon.
As a mercy rule to us NL Westers, MLB should give all NL West teams use of the DH, to balance things out. Or preferably, just to the Dodgers.
this cam angle is neato.
WTF is up with the dodger org?!?!?
Apparently they can't and should bunt. If the guy can't bunt and the guy can't hit, not much Tracy or anyone can do except tell him not to lift the bat off his shoulder.
Make sure ALL your players learn how to bunt before they come up to majors.
Aarrgh.
Also regarding Choi Someone in the last thread mentioned that Wallach doubted whether Choi would ever be an effective Maajor league hitter. Considering how Choi has an 800+ OPS I thought this was a joke. Wallach for the record had an 800+ OPS THREE times in 17 seasons.
Finally I would like to propose a Dodger Thoughts Contest to the poster who can correctly guess the next start for HEE Sop Choi.
Every Dodger position in the lineup has a hit, let's keep some of this for tomorrow against Duke
My guess August 25 2005.
That "throwing error by Bradley" is completely Saenz' fault, btw.
guzman replaces laroche. laroche fouled a ball off his ankle and left the game.
Nats have 4 hits and 5 runs.
Whoever said baseball was fair?
"That's why we used Dessens last night, even though it was for a third of an inning. After the damage had taken place in Sanchez's case, you bring Dessens out. If by some chance you miraculously end up scoring seven runs off a guy who was looking like you might not get any, which ended up being the case -- you have a pitcher back there that can still pitch. That's why we could use Dessens there."
Who wants to explain that to me?
Dessens must be trying to set up a save situation as his new role (setup) dictates now.
Sure don't want to mess up Braz chances for ROY as Tracy indicated.
2-3 with a 2b tonight. hes BA is probably above .290 now
But Coomer is an All-Star.
Eric Young flaired a blooper to right, and Damien Jackson scored from second, 5-5 tie. Stanton for Giles. Quantrill and Otsuka in the Pads pen, I'm hoping for the former rather than the latter
As to his walks, I could care less what you want to call it; Broxton has walked as one fewer than he has struck out so far. Sure, small sample size, but he needs to settle down. One earned run per inning isn't gonna cut it in the show.
6IP 5H 2ER 1bb 11K 1hr
he just made one mistake in the first inning.
As for Broxton, he's 3 years removed from high school. We agree he needs to settle down, but I agree it's due to nerves and not an overall inability to throw strikes consistently.
well according to BA, felix hernandez of the mariners is the best, billz is the second.
personally, i would put billz behind felix and probably liriano.
speculation by whom? by biased fans? not really. unbiased publications like baseball america and prospect analysts like john sickels all rave about the prospects in the system. SO i dont understand your point on "speculation". With that logica, every prospect in baseball is "speculation" then.
Tomorrow's opposing pitcher Zach Duke looks real tough (4-0 0.92 ERA).
O Perez needs to step up and give us one his near no-hitters.
Broxton has pitched 3 innings and he's getting comments on his control. You guys are goofy. I don't mind bringing the farm boy up early but I sure wouldn't use him in high leverage innings until he's got his feet wet. Today was a perfect day to send out him out there. As his confidence builds then give him tougher chances. JMO
Delwyn Young hitting .417 at AAA.
I have been sounding Loney's horn for months.He is a solid ballplayer,the answer longterm at first base.Take it to the bank.
tampas OF
crawford
gomes
huff
baldelli
delmon young
elijah dukes
joey gathright
i assume huff will be traded. gathright would probably be traded too since him and crawford are basically the same type of player.
gathright would be a very exciting player and could solve our lead off problems because he could actually get on base.
If Lamarr was easy to trade with the Dodgers should already have Huff as he would have been a perfect fit for this team. Gathright has the kind of speed that changes games but he learned how to play outfield like Roger Cedeno and could have the same kind of career. Maybe with time he'll learn how to play the outfield unlike Cedeno but I doubt it. Tampa has an exciting core of young players with very high upside. I would not be adverse to trading our pitching prospects for their hitting prospects as long as it is not Elijah Dukes. Don't need the headache.
Not suprised that D Young is liking Vegas. He's a banger whose bat is the most ready to help the big team.
Best two out of three...(Semi Finals)
8/5, Lowe vs Pirates (6-IPs)
8/6, Perez vs Pirates
8/7, Weaver vs Pirates
.........................
Colorado Blue leads 1-0
Colorado Blue: 5 (W) 6
Joekings: NA
.........................
Xeifrank leads 1-0
Xeifrank: 6-2/3 (W) 6
Howard: 7 6-1/3
.........................
Consolation Game: Louis leads 1-0
Louis in SF: 5-1/3 (W)
CT Bum: 6-2/3
.........................
Standings...
1-Joekings 8-4-1
2-Howard 8-7-2
3-Xeifrank 8-7-2
4-Colorado Blue 8-9-0
5x-Louis in SF 5-6-2
6x-CT Bum 6-8-3
x = eliminated.
vr, Xei
The key is that the Rockies have the most intradivision games left. They have 37 as I type (36 games when it's over).
So they can actually play pretty well against the rest of the division and put the other four teams under .500 in intradivision games.
The Giants have 26 intradivision games to play, Arizona has 27 (soon to be 26), the Dodgers have 28 and the Padres have 29.
However, whoever is in first with a week left will need to be already under .500 most likely because Colorado finishes up the season playing out of the division. They finish up at Atlanta and New York.
wow, that's good and horrifying to know.
btw, Broxton has nothing on Jeff Juden until he hits a grand slam...and/or I get Broxton's autograph!
>Ducks rotten fruit<
Besides, I would have been happy even if we'd given Ishii away for free. A man's nerves can only take so much.
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