Interesting that the article states that Olmedo Saenz is 30.

He is a DePodesta guy, but I think Ned buys into Bradley as a toolsy player--not just a "moneyball" guy. I think Bradley will be evaluated fairly and kept because an outfield of him, Drew, and Cruz/Werth is better than one of Drew, Cruz, and Werth/Ledee.

Questions only? Do we have to ask questions only? Because I believe the 2 ahead of me lost, correct?

I believe Jon's post was in question format only, wasn't it?

If there are only questions, do the answers exist?

It could be f) Because Bradley pissed off Frank McCourt, and so McCourt has told Colletti he doesn't want to see him at Dodger Stadium anymore.

As Frank McCourt's hero, Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, "a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Frank McCourt thinks BIG!

That said, I hope Bradley either stays or gets us a whopper return. Someone on another thread tonight threw out the name Andre Ethier as one of the rumored A's in a Bradley deal. From what I can tell, that would be like the Dodgers giving up, oh, maybe Andy LaRoche except Ethier plays outfield. It makes sense, because the A's (with Bradley) are overrun with young outfielders, while the Dodger system is not.

How does an endorsement from Tracy correlate to anyone being a good player?

Wouldn't it be ironic if Bradley's value is at its peak right now? Which will melt down first, his body or his psyche? Do we want to bet Frank's millions to find out?

I hope this Bradley-Saarloos deal isnt true. I just cant see how the Dodgers come ut on top?

IF were trading Bradley to the A's, Collettie better make sure he's getting back either Barry Zito preferable, or at least Mark Kotsay.

Kotsay makes too much cash for Oakland, considering his production I believe. I could definitely see Beane trading Kotsay, for a CF like Bradley whom's cheaper and potentially alot better.

Mark Kotsay would at least save us from a possible Gathwright, Pierre, Jacque Jones coming to LA.

I would go with A, because I think if Kent is going to be moved to 1st base once Isturus comes back, he may have more power regarding Bradley than what people think. Calling someone a racist is not something that is just papered over with a good manager.

Regarding Nelson's article, since when can the McCourt Dodgers pay as much for a marginal win as the Yanks? Why compare cost per win against only free agents? What about comparing against the guy making nothing already on your roster?

And since when was it Kosher to assume a guy averaging around 5.5 WARP will deliver 6.5 to 7 in a park that doesn't favor his hitting style as well as his prior park?

Am I impressed with this analysis?

Old Bear, Kotsay was signed to an extension by the A's last year.

Anybody else find it funny that Tracy is recruiting guys Depo signed?

Didn't Bradley say that Kent "Didn't undertsand black people" or did he actually say that Kent was a racist?

Also, Kent did call out Bradley for a perceived lack of hustle (and costing Kent an RBI). Odalis has done this, and he was resigned.

12-

Wonder what the disconnect between DePo and Tracy was? Playing time for Choi/Saenz? Werth?

13 The issue of race has become such a fearful topic, the mere fact that Bradley mentioned it was equated to calling Kent a racist even though he did not come anywhere near doing so.

What he did wrong was disobey...Jim Tracy. That's why this story is becoming so bizarre and ironic. You could argue that Bradley helped seal the end of Tracy's Dodger career by showing everyone that this manager could not control his players, and that the players did not trust him to take care of their disputes. And now Tracy wants Bradley on his team?

Am I alone in viewing Bradley's injury as a direct consequence of the 'you didn't hustle' allegation. Within a day or two of the blow-up, Bradley hit an infield grounder that he wanted to run into a single. He had no chance, but he raced to first base and lunged at the bag, planting his foot far in front of him in a way that put tremendous stress on his knee. That was the end of his season. I got the sense his race to the bag was a way of saying, "See, I hustle."

Paul Lo Duca said in wire service stories that since he had no local team to root for while growing up in Arizona that he adopted the Mets as his team.

And Charlie Steiner grew up a Dodgers fan too.

5
Foul! No Rhetoric!

The fact that Pittsburg is getting into the mix for Bradley will only increase our bargaining power and should hopefully eradicate Sarloos/Bradley thoughts, correct? Until now, only have one serious suitor for Bradley would give Beane way too much leverage.

I would welcome Zito for Bradley and non-top 10 prospect if we can lock up zito to 4 years 32 mill contract range. Also, if we can pursuade MOrris to accept our offer, we would have quite a strong rotation of Zito, Penny, Morris, Lowe and Odalis.

I would be happy to trade 2 prospects for Abreu as well. Then we'll be in a favorable position to take the NL West and beyond.

Maybe... but I think Bradley made his point a night or two before when he slid into third and pointed into the Dodger dugout.

If Tracy wants him, he must feel that he can have control over him.

Did DePo and Tracy disagree on how to deal with Bradley?

Just got back from another Clipper victory but you had to be there to see the greatest shot in staples history. Every game the Clips let a fan shoot a shot during the 3qtr break from 1/2 court to win a car. Over the last 4 years I've seen 3 guys win a car. Today I saw a 4th but he did with it his back to the basket from 1/2 court. The place went crazy and then EB continued to make his case as the best player in basketball in 2005/2006 as he dominated the Heat.

18- Got to leave room in the starting rotation for one or two Jacksonville starters in 2007.

15
I was a big MB backer but his action on that day was when I cut the cord. I hope we do send him to Pittsburg instead of Oakland so he can screw JT one last time. Anything we get for him is a bonus. I don't see how a DUI which happens on your personal time is in any way related to disregarding direct orders from your superiors to advance your own agenda.

I'm more upset that Oakland was able to make a deal for Chad Guadin who would be better then DJ Houlton and probably better then Kirk Saarloos. Isn't Kirk Saarloos the right handed version of Kirk Rueter?

20- Brand is having an amazing year.

Maybe Ned isn't as dumb as I thought:
A source from the Minnesota Twins, who pulled out of the chase for free agent Bill Mueller, said the former American League batting champion had narrowed his list of potential clubs to the Dodgers and Pittsburgh. There were whispers the Pirates had offered Mueller a two-year contract, something the Dodgers aren't likely to do because of the front office's belief that highly touted third-base prospect Andy LaRoche will be ready to take over in 2007.
Daily News

All this worring is no good for the bones.

i seriously dont believe saarloos is the best we can do.

24 - worrying*. It's no good for the fingers either.

30 degree nights are not good for the fingers here in tucson.

Nate, what do you major in? And what year are you?

im a pre business major right now, sophmore. Probably going to get into sports marketing or management.

Wow, nice. Sports marketing. I guess that makes you a year younger than me (or so). Baseball will probably forever remain a hobby for me, unless I decide to get into the actual physics of baseball or some nonsense like that.

some prospects i would want from the A's in a bradley deal:

Javier Herrera OF
hit 275/.374/.444 in low A as a 20 yr old

Danny Putnam OF
hit .307/.388/.479 in high A as a 22yr old

Andre Ethier OF
hit 319/.385/.497 in AA as a 23yr old

and if beane is willing to deal Dan meyer, i would take a flyer on him as well.

basically, oakland has some outfielders that intrigue me.

Jon, I think Bradley will be traded so Drew can move to cf. Baseball Prospectus has written many times that moving Drew to cf will help minimize stress on his knees. The Dodgers have a huge investment in Drew and so they will keep him. Cruz will play rf and Werth will play lf. Ledee will be the 4th of pending another acquisition. CBS Sportsline's rumor mill says the trade with the As is Bradley for Zito in some form.

6 - Your f) would fall under a)

7 - Your first question is answered in 15), which I agree with.

By the way, I'm still not 100 percent in favor of keeping Bradley. I'm just trying to reconcile things when so many teams are willing to acquire him.

33
I suspect even the staunchest Milton support has at least some qualms about keeping him. Part of the difficulty in seeing him go lies in the near certainty that the Dodgers will receive less talent in return.

i really like milton. he honestly seems to be a nice guy who isn't fully able to keep his emotions in check, and so he keeps letting bad situations get out of hand. having a bit of a persecution complex doesn't help any, either.

I really hope we keep Bradley. I just don't see the Dodgers getting equal value in return. We should be able to sign him to a (relatively)cheap contract while his leverage isn't as high as it might be a couple of years from now.

On the Hot Stove front, I just heard a rumor about a possible Manny trade. This deal would send Manny to the Angels and Troy Glaus to Boston. Guess they don't have much confidence in lowell bouncing back.

I really like Milton as a player, but if a trade is really in the works, I suggest the Rangers.

The Rangers have a new "sabermetric" GM, and need pitching and CF. I think we could get Blalock for Milton and a pitching prospect or two. I believe Blalock is signed for the next 3 years for about $14 mil.

The Hartford Courant has this:

MLB.com is reporting the A's are close to a deal for Dodgers outfielder Milton Bradley. Righthander Kirk Saarloos and lefty Mario Ramos would go to L.A.

I hope it's not true. That trade sucks.

36- Ok, this article says that Glaus would be used at first.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=115748&format=text

"With the Angels definitely unwilling to trade their best young pitcher, Ervin Santana, a third team must get involved to get Ramirez to Southern California. The latest front-runners are the Diamondbacks, who would receive a package of prospects from the Angels while the Sox would receive Arizona's Troy Glaus, who would be used at first base.

Since the Angels would have to shed some salary to accommodate Ramirez' $57 million, the Red Sox might also have to take an existing contract off their hands as well, possibly Darin Erstad."

It's funny, the article also mentions "The Red Sox' gang of four — senior adviser Bill Lajoie, Ben Cherington, (Jed)Hoyer and Craig Shipley" Very similar to the Dodgers' alleged 4 headed GM.

Glaus and Boston might be a good match. Manny will be good anywhere.

I'm for answer D. Well, the real answer is I wouldn't be willing to gamble on him if someone else could give me a different risk that would be mitigated by other factors... like I think the Bullpen is OK, so getting a lefty that has the same risk as Milton, would be ok to me. That said, we have no one that impresses me in the outfield below Ledee. Another Starter or a good Outfielder? Flip a coin. If Colleti gets both and both are as good as the Furcal deal, I will be impressed.

Oh, I didn't realize that Saarloos thing was in the Gargoyles thread. Sorry.

41
Sheesh. What Gargoyles thread doesn't include a Saarloos thing?

19 "If Tracy wants him, he must feel that he can have control over him."

I doubt anyone thinks he can control MB. Not even MB can control MB.

Tracy probably just thinks he will be productive enough to tolerate the occasional blow-ups.

[37] blalock is a below-average fielder who hit .231/.276/.335 (.611 OPS) away from arlington last year, and whose career numbers away from arlington are .238/.296/.396 (.692)

38- People on the A's forums are saying that some local station is reporting it as a done deal.

Here's what it says on Rotoworld...

Milton Bradley - OF - Dodgers

Milton Bradley could be on his way to the A's for right-hander Kirk Saarloos and left-hander Mario Ramos.
Rumors are floating that it's a done deal. The A's official site says only that the team has offered Saarloos and another player to the Dodgers for Bradley. If the A's get Bradley, they could play Nick Swisher at first base and use Dan Johnson as a DH. Another option would be to trade Jay Payton or Mark Kotsay and continue to pursue a designated hitter. Dec. 5 - 11:09 pm et
Source: athletics.mlb.com

If this trade is real then Colleti is an Idiot. That would be two bad moves in my book and I would be terribly dissapointed. Ugh, I really hope it's not true.

I like Bradley (as a player) alot. He has some very good skills and he's definatley one of the more exciting players to watch, whether he's getting a GWRBI or throwing a bucket of balls. However, I think trading him is the right move.

He's out till about mid season, so that really cuts his value in half. He's a free agent at the end of 06, so what the Dodgers would really be keeping is someone coming of an injury a little before the trade deadline. So, why not move him now for a needed player, then if it looks like they need help down the stretch, they make a trade for someone the likes of Adam Dunn who will probably be available at that time.

[46] that assumes we could get a "needed player" in exchange for bradley. from the rumors we're hearing, it looks like we're not getting much value in return at all.

46 I bet the Reds will resolve their outfield logjam this winter, so Dunn wouldn't be available. Rumors are Kearns is the one they're making available.

i don't know if anyone posted this yet, but there are some dodgers (and recent dodgers) who will be playing in the world baseball classic:

from the dodgers.com article:

"Gagne would represent Canada, as would rookie catcher Russell Martin. Jose Cruz Jr. and Ricky Ledee would represent Puerto Rico, Oscar Robles would represent Mexico and Duaner Sanchez would represent the Dominican Republic.

In addition, free agents Giovanni Carrara and Elmer Dessens have agreed to participate, Carrara for Venezuela and Dessens for Mexico."

http://tinyurl.com/ay8nb

i like the idea of gagne pitching to martin :)

If so many teams want Bradley, an injury-riddled head-case, he's officially overvalued in my book. Trade him to the highest bidder.

Re: 50

I think so many teams want Bradley only because they think they can get him cheap. If we ask for much value in return, they'll immediately back off and go acquire someone who doesn't bring his personal problems to the field and who isn't constantly injured.

I for one would rather we keep him around, but I'm not going to be upset if we trade him, either. And I certainly don't see why we can describe Colletti as dumb for making a Bradley-Saarloos trade, which is disappointing, but by no means awful. We need rotation depth to avoid relying on another Scott Erickson, and who is to say that Milton will even be ready for ST. And we shouldn't just assume that all the character issues should be ignored. Bradley's a special case, because he does things like actually get himself ejected, which does affect the actual game, unlike mysterious scrappiness, so worrying about his make-up is entirely legitimate from a saber perspective in my view.

WWSH

Other teams are interested because he's obviously talented and doesn't make a lot of money.

It's the same reason why Terrell Owens will get a job next season...

And why the Dodgers took a chance on Bradley after his stunts in Cleveland...

And why if John Rocker could still save 40 games a year he'd be playing somewhere.

That doesn't mean the Dodgers should feel the pressure to keep him. He's already proved that under the best situations (winning, respect of the manager/gm/owner, favorite boyhood club, at home, etc) he couldn't make it work. What happens when the situation goes south? You have another Bradley/Kent meltdown that kills whatever chemistry might be happening in the clubhouse.

Pass. Flip him by 12/20 so we get something, anything, in return and move on.

44 I didn't realize how dramatic Blalock's splits were!

Why is no one fretting about this item in the LA Times report today? "The Dodgers were talking to Boston about acquiring left-hander David Wells, who got a two-year contract with a $4-million base from the Red Sox last off-season. The Red Sox are believed to be asking for prospects in return for Wells, who was 15-7 with a 4.45 earned-run average for Boston."

David Wells? That goose is cooked. The prospects better be grade B or C level. I'm assuming this is in case something else doesn't work out.

Re: 54

I have no problem with getting Wells, as long as we aren't giving up any really necessary pieces from the farm. He could potentially be a good replacement for Weaver's slot in the rotation.

Boston might very well not demand too much for him, in light of his age, and the fact that they may be looking to clear his salary off the books.

WWSH

54 - The Daily News goes further than that:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/372096p-316516c.html

"The Yanks probably won't be seeing much of David Wells next season. Wells, who has asked the Red Sox to trade him to the West Coast, likely will be a Dodger at some point today, according to a source. "

I like Wells, though he's a bit pricy as we've discussed before. $9M for this year, assuming he's healthy (30 starts). I think he'll be productive enough, either as the 4th starter or opening up a trade involving Odalis.

54 - David Wells? That goose is cooked.

David Wells has been very consistent, putting up nearly identical numbers now for the last 5+ years. His one recent season in the NL (year before last in SD) was very successful.

Wells is no more potentially washed up than Jeff Kent.

Wells makes sense if we're talking about trading straight up for Odalis Perez. Perez got a 3-year $24 mil deal that, according to ESPN, he has been paid only $4.5 mil on. Wells gets $4 mil plus incentives and is only guaranteed for one more year.

If you can take Wells and get the Perez contract off the books I say do that deal all day long. Anything you get from Wells is a bonus to not have to pay Odalis the remaining $20 mil over 2 years.

More Abreu stuff from ESPN:

"The Philadelphia Daily News reports that the Cubs learned Monday that they would need to include pitcher Mark Prior in any deal for Abreu."

Barry Zito Contract Extension watcher:

"two agents said the Mariners had offered free-agent starter [Kevin Millwood] a four-year deal believed to be worth about $44 million, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports."

58 - Ideally, Wells and Odalis will have virtually the same financial impact this year, if Wells makes his incentives. Odalis is due to make $9.5M this year.

I don't really understand the desire to trade Odalis, but if you can get fair value for him without subsidizing his contract, Wells makes a suitable replacement. I'd prefer to start Penny, Lowe, Odalis, Wells, and a kid. There might not be much leftover for a bat though.

"Wells is no more potentially washed up than Jeff Kent."

Wells is a 42 year old coming off a 99 ERA+ season. Kent is a 37 year old coming off a 136 OPS+ season as a second baseman. Not remotely comparable.

if we are offering prospects for david wells, they had better not be anything more than mario ramos-level prospects.

61 - I see your point, but I wasn't comparing the relative worth of Kent vs. Wells. I was comparing their level of consistency over the last couple of years as a predicition of regression. Wells, from what I saw, isn't showing any noticeable signs of slowing down.

Just to put the numbers out there, which don't necessarily prove my point:

Kent's OPS+ for '03/'04/'05
118/124/136

Wells' ERA+ for '03/'04/'05
106/108/99

So Kent appears to be improving, whereas Wells did show some signs of slowing down.

So I'll retract this:

"Wells is no more potentially washed up than Jeff Kent."

Does ERA+ take into account park factors, moving from NL Petco to AL Fenway?

Since most of DT posters have some interest in the stat's behind the game of baseball I've got to recommend a book. I'm reading the Alan Schwarz "The Number Game" and it is a fascinating read. Anyone who loves statistics should read this book. It is shocking the amount of work the pioneers did in putting the numbers together for us to be able to enjoy and how even 120 years ago they knew how important the numbers would be.

65 - Baseball-reference.com has this next to ERA+ and OPS+:

"* indicates the value is park adjusted"

so I would assume so.

66 - Have you read "Mind Game" yet? I'm surprised it hasn't been discussed more here, given that it's such a recent release. It really put a lot of meaning and context to many of the metrics that are thrown around here.

interesting, from dodgers.com:

"Kent is a key figure in Furcal's arrival, because when Cesar Izturis returns from elbow surgery at mid-season, he will be asked to move to second base and Kent will be asked to move to first base. And that's without really knowing who will play first base for the first half of 2006, although it doesn't figure to be a big-name player with Kent a candidate for late in the year and James Loney the long-range prospect."

great, he has no idea who could play first base. not a clue. except for the korean elephant in the room that gurnick doesn't even want to MENTION.

68
After the HardTimes book, it is next in the queue.

69 - I noticed that.

Someone had a quote today from Colletti, that seemed like a Part 2 to the Part 1 about the position switching. The quote said something like we have a lot of ground to cover between now and when Izturis returns. That's the point I've been trying to make.

Whether or not Choi is the first baseman in April, he certainly is the incumbent. And reporters should spend a fraction of the time looking at what's right with Choi that they spend dismissing him.

Choi comes to the ballpark healthy and hustles every day. Izturis is a bad-attitude, injury prone malcontent.

Yeah seriously, it seems like its walking on egg shells regarding moving Kent to 1b (like he will needs to okay the whole thing) yet has anyone even talked to IZZY about moving to 2b?

I played SS in High School and my arm wasn't that great so they asked me to move to 2b. It's a pretty tough transition. Has Cesar ever played 2b?

73 - Colletti left a message for Izturis, which according to Tim Brown in the Times, Izturis has yet to return.

Doesn't return the GM's phone calls. Reluctant to switch positions for the good of the team.

[73] tim brown talked to izturis about it. it's in today's latimes:

http://tinyurl.com/9n3qo

Talks to the press instead of keeping it in the clubhouse.

hahahah steve, brilliant.

60 "I don't really understand the desire to trade Odalis..."

I hear ya, brother. Odalis' VORP for the last four seasons:
02: 59.9
03: 19.3
04: 49.7
05: 8.6

Interestingly, I found this comment from BP's 2003 edition: Red flag alert: While Tracy did a reasonable job of watching Perez's pitch counts, anyone who goes from 118 to 222 innings pitched in a span of a year, that close to a major injury, raises the specter of further injury or periods of ineffectiveness going forward.

So do we want to trade him because we think he's done at age 28? He had a couple of pretty nice seasons in there. Maybe he'll have a few more.

71
Is is much easier to dismiss a player for perceived problems then to look beneath the problems and find things they do well. That is the TJ Simers approach to it, but it is also done here all the time. The advantage we have here is that other posters will bring out all sides. The poor readers of the LA Times only have the one opinion to consider, or their own. The best part of DT is the feedback from the posters on both sides after you've posted a well written article.

Izturis logged 41 games at 2b for Toronto in '01, and only 6 at SS.

80 "The poor readers of the LA Times only have the one opinion to consider, or their own."

Um, I'm a poor reader of the LA Times, and also a poor reader of BP, DT and about a dozen other baseball publications. I suspect I'm not the only one using the LAT as just ONE source of info.

So there. ;)

If Choi isn't allowed to start the year at 1B, then I have to assume that there are problems we're unaware of. Now that Tracy is gone, if Smith and Ng aren't in his corner then he might as well be traded. It's hard to understand though. His age, power, athleticism, attitude, strike zone judgement all appear to be plusses. Not that we haven't repeated that mantra ad nauseum here.

Steve is dead on.

cool, thanks for the answers guys. I see Depo-I mean Steve working. Depo would have gotten killed by the local hacks if he signed furcal without talking to Izzy. You know, the whole communication thing.

Tommy John surgery? What is he, made of glass?

82
Obviously I meant those that only get their info from the Times. I have never run into another Dodger fan who has a clue what DT is. It is the LA Times and ESPN and that is the world of most Dodger fans.

Poor Blue Jays' fans. If they log onto MLB and read the article about A.J. Burnett's imminent signing, and they're getting all excited that, maybe, this will be the year they truly contend in the AL East again...then in walks Debbie Downer:

"Burnett's contract will be the most lucrative tendered to a free agent pitcher since Chan Ho Park received a $65 million, five-year contract four years ago by the nearby Texas Rangers. Since, Park has gone 26-26 and was dealt by the Rangers to San Diego last season."

Clunk.

86
And the guy gets all the paid leave he needs. Where's the work ethic?

After receiving permission from the Dodgers, Cubs manager Dusty Baker had lunch with Milton Bradley at the outfielder's home last month.
"We had a great conversation," Baker said. "I wanted to get a good reading on him, and we covered every issue." There haven't been any substantial reports of the trade to the A's being done, so it appears as though the Cubs and Pirates may still have a chance at getting Bradley. There was speculation last month that Bradley could be traded to the Cubs for Todd Walker. That seems highly unlikely now that Rafael Furcal has been signed, but it's possible something else could be worked out. Dec. 6 - 12:22 pm et
- Rotoworld

90 - This being the same Rotoworld that 12 hours ago said that Bradley to the A's for Saaroloos and Ramos was a done deal.

The Baker note was interesting, but as far as the trade speculation, I don't know how you all can read all this stuff. Reading one falsehood after another just gets so tedious for me.

In the words of William Goldman, "Nobody knows anything."

91
In the words of William Goldman, "Nobody knows anything."

How does he know?

Yeah, I agree that the speculation is pointless. I think we're just interested in seeing what kind of moves Flanders makes so we can get a read on his philosophy. The Furcal signing was interesting that it appealed to both BITGODs (who like his speed) and Sabres (who like his WARP) alike, and thus didn't really reveal much insight into Flanders' thought process (although he did acknowledge that he is moving away from an emphasis on power to one on speed and athleticism, which sounds pretty "Scrappyball" to me...)

Reading the Blue Jays news on ESPN brings me back to the year we committed $100 million to pitching. Seven years and 20 back spasm/injuries later...

Bradley for Prior is what I'd like to speculate. LOL

Isturis' reaction to Furcal's signing and taking over SS is very interesting. I guess Ned doesn't subscribe to the "an injured starter never loses his job" axiom. I don't either, but a lot of people do. I wouldn't be surprised if Izzy is dealt at the trading deadline, assuming he's 100% then.

Yeah, regarding my comment earlier about Wells, I'd say the fact that he will be 43 years old next season doesn't make me too excited, since he's not exactly the bionic man that Clemens is, and although his numbers last year were pretty good, the few times I saw him pitched he looked like crap. Maybe just bad timing... As a one year stop gap until the kids are ready, it could be okay, or it could be Scott Erickson all over again (though I wouldn't go that far - I'm sure Wells would do okay... just doesn't make me very confident. And, again, Ned, please don't trade any top prospects for him.)

92 I worship at sabre-ball but can't take communion, so I wanted to ask this question again. Is there a sabre-stat that shows runs scored as a percentage of total times reaching base? Obvious flaw is that this is partly dependent on hitters; it's the reverse of the problem with RBI. But if you compared leadoff hitters only, and just used common sense about whose stats should be regarded as inflated/suppressed, you might be able to get at the relative merits of leadoff hitters like Furcal, for whom claims are made about speed, disruptiveness, extra-base-taking-ness, bunt optimization, double-play-aversion, etc.

Why all the fascination with several clubs' reportedly showing "interest" in Milton Bradley.

Showing interest doesn't mean squat.

What matters: The actual offers being made for Milton -- and none of know us what they are. My guess is a whole lot of garbage is being offered.

As for Tracy being interested in Bradley, there's no disconnect there, as some here suggest.

The Pirates have one good positional starter -- Jason Bay.

Nearly everyone else is a role player.

It'd be surprising if JT did NOT want Milton, given the lack of talent on the Pirates roster.

"I think we're just interested in seeing what kind of moves Flanders makes so we can get a read on his philosophy."

I'm interested in these too. However, the moves Colletti makes have nothing to do with false rumors. I see people latch onto a rumor - I think a big part of the thrill is being the first to pass it on - and then 20 comments follow, culminating in "Colletti is an idiot." And it just strikes me as a big fat waste of time - and furthermore, in my opinion, makes Dodger Thoughts as ordinary as every other gathering spot on the Internet.

You know 99 percent of these rumors are false. If I felt like people were having fun with them, that'd be one thing. But people take them so seriously and get so angry, as if they were real. I truly don't get it.

Izzy didn't lose his job, he just had it moved a few feet. Considering he's now the 3rd-best hitting SS and 3rd-best hitting 2b on the team, he should be thankful.

97
Well, I'm the wrong person to ask about stats, but I've wondered of that stat before too. To make it more meaningful, it seems like you could at least partially control for the quality of subsequent hitters and their contribution to you scoring runs.

The Official Do It Yourself Baseball Rumors and Commentary Kit [tm]
------------------------------------
According to [insert unreliable internet source here], the Dodgers are very close to making a deal for [disturbing overvalued player name] and [optional: overrated or washed up minor leaguer] which would involve [veteran, subject of frequent rumors] and [top prospect name most of us don't want to see leave].

I feel this move for [overvalued player name] would be a total [insert negative adjective here] that would completely [counteract/negate/benefit/fulfill] everything that I've been [saying/hoping for]. The Dodgers are on the [right/wrong] track and if this trade happens I will [be tickled pink/become enraged/vomit/apply to become manager].

Meanwhile, I propose the Dodgers [trade/DFA/sign] [player name] who would be [a real bargain/a waste/excrement/less likely to have an affair with a brainless Fox correspondent]. This would fill their biggest need, [1b/3b/OF/SP/RP/manager].

----------------------------------

Free of charge!

97, 101 - This path has been pursued before. I think it's fine to calculate bases, but if you involve runs in the equation, it really does become too dependent on teammates, like RBI. I think once you "just used common sense about whose stats should be regarded as inflated/suppressed," the stat is going to become more and more pointless.

99
Well, I guess I had considered "the 20 comments that follow" to be better and more interesting than "zero comments". But, as the proprietor of this forum, I suppose you have higher standards than I do. I certainly don't mean to degrade and genericize (yes, genericize) your blog.

99 A-men!

To be fair, however, MLB did give a smidgen of credibility to the Bradley to the A's rumor. Unlike Rotoworld or other sites purely devoted to unsubstantiated rumors, MLB tends to point you in a direction with a higher percentage of accuracy.

That said, I think the winter meetings are like LSD for the baseball beat writers generally. It is hard to sort out what's real from what's a figment of the imagination.

the cubs being interested is very interesting.

They do have some players i wouldnt mind in a bradley swap. One of them is corey patterson. Yes i know he sucked last year, but he has that minor league pedigree and everyone thought he was going to be star. He has the speed flanders likes and hes that toolsy player flanders likes also. He obviously needs a change of scenery and if you bat him 6th or 7th, he could be very useful for you. He is never going to be a leadoff guy, but he is a guy that could potentially give you 30/30, but more likely 20hr/30sb over a full season. If he gets his act together, it wouldnt be a bad deal.

another player that might have no use on the cubs is matt murton. He wouldnt have use because dusty doesnt play rookies. Hes basically the oppositte of patterson. high OBP guy, who just has a polished bat and plays a servicable left field.

obviously, i would want rich hill, but the cubs are reluctant to trade him. maybe patterson+pitching prospect for bradley.

97 Fortunately, that stat is really easy to calculate yourself, using just things that MLB.com has avialable. (Runs/(OBP*PA). If you want to start normalizing it gets tricky. I don't have time to get fully into this, but here's the numbers for the first three leadoff guys that popped into my head.

Furcal: 41.6%
Podsednik: 40.2%
Brady Clark: 37.4%

71. Jon Weisman
he certainly is the incumbent. (Choi)

But, he only had approx 350 plate appearances. He may be the incumbent, but his foothold is weak. True, ignoring him is not right.

Corey "I'm killing my team" Patterson? Even Dusty finally gave up on him, didn't he?

104 - Couldn't those 20 comments be spent elsewhere? A lot of energy was put into analyzing deals that had no chance of happening yesterday.

Again, I'm not trying to end people's fun. Fun can be had in other ways. I'm actually trying to curtail the anger and depression.

105 - "MLB tends to point you in a direction with a higher percentage of accuracy."

Yes - as do the major papers. But as you point out, at this time of year, they consider themselves free to report rumors like anyone else. They're big on saying something was "discussed," implying that that's meaningful when it's not.

But thanks for the "A-men."

Here's a question I've had for awhile. Around here, the word "toolsy" seems to be almost as perjorative as "scrappy."

1) What precisely is meant by "toolsy"?
2) Why does it bug people if a player is rated highly in that area.

But, for more compelling evidence that it's about the guys behind you:

Jeter: 41.6%
Damon: 46.4%

It's a flawed stat.

One minor caveat on Patterson: Although he's a minor leaguer, he's either eligible for arbitration or close to it. Could command $2 million or more very soon.

110
Well, I guess I'm relatively immune to the anger and depression. I actually find humor in the rumored bad trades. I'm also new to the "Sabremetric" approach, and I enjoy hearing expert opinions regarding various players in the league rumored to be coming to the Dodgers. I learn quite a bit about why we should or shouldn't want them to come, and what criteria should be used in making that determination.

If the choice is between "20 comments regarding speculation" and "20 comments regarding something more useful", then, yes, the latter is preferred. If the choice is between the former and nothing, well, maybe that's different.

To put the stat to rest, plodding David Dellucci with a good offense behind him: 51.1%

Re 111:

toolsy means athletic and has the 5 "tools" baseball scouts look for.
-defense
-running speed
-hit for power
-hit for average
-arm

generally, "toolsy" players are often regarded as super raw and need times to refine those tools and turn them into "skills" and production. Usually these prospects, the ones with the highest ceilings but are raw, are the most likely o flame out.

Again, I'm not trying to end people's fun. Fun can be had in other ways. I'm actually trying to curtail the anger and depression.

Isn't this how Prohibition got started?

116
If I remember correctly, wasn't one of the "points" of Moneyball that players should be evaluated on their results (e.g. OBP, SLG, etc.) rather than on their tools? In other words, tools are a means, not an end. If tools don't produce results, they're not worth much. And conversely, if results can be produced without tools, then those results are worth something.

111 - Toolsy became a negative because a player having tools (run, field, throw, hit, hit with power) - a player who looked good on the field - would sometimes get overrated. It was assumed for a long time that tools would lead to greatness - but many players have all kinds of tools but still can't make sense of a major league curveball. In contrast, a player who didn't look the part sometimes was underrated. Hence, the reference in Moneyball to the fact that Billy Beane wasn't looking for models to sell blue jeans - he just wanted people to get the job done, no matter how they looked.

Tools are not inherently bad - it's just that they are not an end in and of themselves.

103. BP, Bill James, and the Hardballtimes have all done stuff on baserunning, as in running the bases not just stolen bases. Nate Silver did an article in August where he came up with "SOB" or a speed-adjusted OBP where players that have good speed (like Jose Reyes) get credit for their speed while slow players (like Giambi) get lowered for their lack of speed. It was a very intersting article, most of the top speed players had between 10 and 20 points added to their OPB by SOB.

If tools don't produce results, they're not worth much

thats true. but pattersons tools have produced results before... just not lately lol

As an addendum to what I posted about Dellucci, Buck Showwalter is a great manager. He's the only manager I can think of that doesn't lead off a guy because he's fast, he leads them off because they can get on base.

re 120

i remember that article sanchez. is that still available for reading?

122 Showalter is a pretty good manager as far as strategy and such goes. He also seems to be a pretty fair evaluator of talent.

He seems to come short in the managing personalities department.

110 - Jon, I feel like I've engaged in a heavy amount of speculation over the last week or so. Mostly, it's reporting of things that are rumors that are reported elsewhere, and then speculation on the ramifications on this team.

[Without the slightest tone of defensiveness from me] Did you feel that any of yesterday's conversation regarding Bradley was inappropriate? Your blog, your rules, just trying to be respectful.

117 - Prohibition to curtail the anger and depression? I think that's more how Prohibition ended.

and just when you thought it wouldnt get any worse...

"The Dodgers have emerged as the leading candidate to acquire Rangers power-hitting Alfonso Soriano, according to a Rangers official. The Rangers would receive two top prospects. The move would push All-Star Jeff Kent to first base. …"

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/2005-12-06-winter-meetings-buzz_x.htm

Bob was spot on with that analogy, I thought. Prohibition was mostly a domestic violence issue, or at least it was when it started.

Corey Patterson would be disastrous. He's nothing more than Reggie Abercrombie all grown up. Guys don't suddenly get a clue how to hit at age 26, unless their name is Sosa and they have chemical assistance.

Hey guys.

I looked thru all the posts here but kinda fast and i checked prosportsdaily.com and other sites to find out the new rumors, i just got home from my college classes.

If anyone can help me out and tell me what the new rumors are i'd appreciate it.

Here is what i've seen today:
1 Bradley to oakland isn't a done deal and the cubs and pirates are interested.
But who are being offered to us for bradley?
2 we are interested in trading for wells.
But who are we offering?
3 the dodgers are interested in signing mueller, morris, mark sweeney.
4 the dodgers are willing to trade odalis perez but only if they get a starter in return.
5 colletti is going to meet with boras who represents weaver,millwood,washburn (i didn't know washburn was a boras client),rodgers.
--------------------------------------------

And i just realized something, if we sign mueller to what he wants a 2 year contract, he could play 3b in 2006 and then move to 2b in 2007 when kent is gone and laroche is expected.
--------------------------------------------
If i have missed anything, would someone let me know?

Don't forget the flipside of toolsy - high ceiling. Bonds, Pujols, Abreu, Cabrera, Wright - the great ones are usually pretty toolsy.

That's one of the funny things about Moneyball. In the part covering the draft that year, Lewis was mocking the foolish GMs for picking toolsy high school kids, like BJ Upton and Kazmir and Hermida and Fielder. Don't those GMs feel silly now?

127
That might be a terrific move, depending on who we give up. (I'd rather it be Kent.)

I really don't understand a lot of the Soriano-hatred around here. The guy is a hell of a baseball player.

And adding to 129 i just read what nate just posted about soriano.

the snippet says "two top prospects"

no thanks!

also, soriano cant play defense. cant hit outside of arlington. doesnt know how to take a walk. but i guess he adds to neds philosophy of more speed.

"Don't forget the flipside of toolsy - high ceiling. Bonds, Pujols, Abreu, Cabrera, Wright - the great ones are usually pretty toolsy."
----------

Good point, although Pujols as a prospect was the exact antithesis of toolsy, notably lacking three of the five tools.

127. didnt we hear this the other day, i doubt that this is true, it doesnt make sense at all. What happens to izturis if soriano is acquired, why move kent to first for soriano, who is one is an even worse defensive secondbaseman. Im calling shenanigans on this one, seems "a Ranger's offical" is trying to pick up the market for Soriano.

131
I'm certainly no expert, but from what I can tell, Soriano has to be one of the "feast-or-famine"iest hitters in the league. He doesn't reach base often, but when he does, it's on an extra-base hit quite a bit of the time.

soriano, a player in his last yr before free agency, who cant play defense, doesnt seems like a player that would "overwhelm" ned to give up our top prospects for.

131 He had a .309 on base last year, slugged almost three hundred points worse on the road, and was the worst defensive second baseman in baseball.

On the plus side, he is rather fast.

125 - I don't think it was inappropriate. I didn't enjoy it, particularly.

When I think of these things, I tend to think of what a first-time visitor would think upon seeing these comments. While the analysis and debate here is better than you see perhaps anywhere else, I did feel some people were getting too emotional about something that didn't exist. I also feel that if the commenters here give the impression that they think these rumors are real, then we lower the value of Dodger Thoughts, because people will look at it and see a bunch of suckers.

(Of course, there have been first-time visitors this week, so perhaps they should speak for themselves.)

It's the same sort of thing as when Tracy was being grilled here. People on the serious "anyone but Tracy" party line, people who were suggesting replacements for no other fathomable reason than they were not Tracy, ... I think that undermined the site as a think tank, because if you make an obviously bad argument, people are going to be less willing to buy into your good but more complicated argument. Solid analysis is good. Fun is good. Passion is good. Going crazy because someone said we might get Saarloos for Bradley - not so good. It's fine to point out that it wouldn't be a bad deal; it's silly to get angry about a rumor.

[131] yeah, i'm with nate in [133]. soriano is HORRIBLE with the glove, and while he was good as a yankee, the last two years his arlington/road splits are as shocking as blalock's.

i don't want to give up 2 top prospects for him.

131

I like my flippant remarks to be both funny and historically accurate.

Just to put things in perspective, we're talking about a second baseman here with 42 doubles, 36 homers, 30 steals, and 2 caught stealing. And this in a down year.

Sure, the guy's got major flaws. He's also got major positives.

136 - Back when I used to post at scout.com, somebody said DePo had a meeting with his business, giving them his speech about his story with the Indians, through the A's, and then to the Dodgers (he may have already GM at the time). The poster said he got to ask DePo some baseball related questions at the end, one of which was, "Do your models tell you who feasts on bad pitching?" DePo said, "Yes, for example, Alfonso Soriano. It's no surprise he was eaten alive in the playoffs last year."

So no on Soriano. Talk about overrated. I can't see how the other 3 members of the Gang Of 4 would approve of him, unless Ned is being dictator.

do his major positives outweigh his major flaws so much that itd be worth it to deal two top prospects for him?

David Delucci has a speed index of 128. He is neither plodding nor slow. If Depo had his way he would have been a Dodger last year instead of Ledee. Milton Bradley has a 95. The idea that Milton is fleet should be put to rest.

Speed Score Index (SX)

Purpose & Meaning
Normalized speed scores are presented to get a better read on a runner's accomplishment in context of the league.

Benchmarks
A level of 100 equals league average speed skill. Values over 100 indicate above average skill, and over 200 represent the fleet of feet elite.

Formula
(Batter's Spd/League Spd) x 100

Ned seems to value defense as evidenced by the IF in San Francisco. Soriano coming and moving Kent to 1B wouldn't make much defensive sense. It would only make sense if Ned thinks Kent is as good defensively at 1B as Choi.

Wasn't Kent the one who wanted to continue playing 2B for Hall of Fame reasons?

Curious, anyone care to speculate what Kent's defense would be like at 3B?

What bothers me is all the talk about Kent moving to 1st. Last year I was all for it. But after seeing him play 1st, he's not very comfortable there. Maybe not as bad as Piazza there but...

On rumors:

(UnAssociated Press)

Former Dodgers great Sandy Koufax announced today that he was going to spring training with the Dodgers in a comeback attempt.

"I can still go six innings every fifth day," Koufax said.

If Koufax succeeds, he would fill a gaping hole in the Dodgers rotation.

142. what do you think he'd hit in DS?

this is a made up story by either some hack journalist or fabricated by the Rangers to get people talking about soriano again and to get the bidding up

127. natepurcell
and just when you thought it wouldnt get any worse...

"The Dodgers have emerged as the leading candidate to acquire Rangers power-hitting Alfonso Soriano, according to a Rangers official. The Rangers would receive two top prospects. The move would push All-Star Jeff Kent to first base. …"

---

This is kind of what I mean. An unnamed Rangers official, with any kind of potential agenda to boost his team's interests, suggests that Soriano would be traded for two top prospects. Not to pick on Nate, but 1) why on earth would you take this seriously enough to reprint it, and 2) why on earth would you take this seriously enough to get upset about it?

I can understand 1), I guess, if you want to debate the hypothetical. I don't understand 2) at all.

139 - Thanks for the response. Though I'm sure you don't want this place to turn into a gossip rag, rumors are fun to talk about, especially in the offseason (and especially this offseason given the circumstances). That being said, I'll try to keep it classy and grounded in reality.

[145] 200? is that a non-linear scale, or are the elite runners literally twice as fast as the league average?

145 Point taken. Thanks. (He is still slower than the other guys I mentioned, right?)

134 Well, yes, but he excells in two tools. I think part of the point was recognizing that strike zone judgement was an unrecognized tool.

145. bradley's just a crappy base stealer, im not sure how you can be a good CF with out being at least an average runner. i can see bradley being a poor baserunner, because of his decision-making, not his raw speed. i think that stat is really measuring speed as a skill, as opposed to running ability.

If Soriano and Kent were to play on the same team, it would make much more sense to play Kent at 2B and move Soriano to 1B or CF.

But then, you defeat the entire purpose of having Soriano if you move him off second base. Bottom line, acquiring Soriano would be insane if there are plans for Jeff Kent to be on the team also.

If Kent is shipped away, Soriano might be a good acquisition unless they want somebody like Martin or Billingsley in return.

re 150

well, because its a rumor that has been picking up steam. a week ago, reports stated we were interested in soriano. now reports say we are leading canidates for soriano. Then just recently gammons was on espnnews from the winter meetings and he stated dodgers are making a big push for soriano.

and i guess when i hear some ridiculous rumor like this that could be true, it just makes me upset because i dont want the dodgers to do something so stupid that it will just upset me for 2 weeks.

re: 143 There are plenty of bad pitchers in the NL West and with Rocket's retirement and the Fish's firesale, the NL in general.

152 If anything, it would probably be twice as fast over someone like Jason Phillips i.e.

Phillips to first: 4.5 seconds
Average to first: 4 seconds
Elite to first: 3.5 seconds.

[150] well, obviouslyl it's pure speculation, but i don't think ANYONE has gotten "upset" about it or is treating it like it's actually happened. at least not the soriano thing for example. analyzing and debating silly rumors is kinda fun if not particularly productive.. isn't that what the hot stove is all about? engaging in idle speculation? as long as people aren't getting inflamed (and i don't think people are really that worked up in reality; though it is a tiny bit disheartening that most of the rumors seem to involve the dodgers in unsavory deals), what's the harm?

i guess it does run a little counter to the "think tank" atmosphere though. i didn't realize you were hoping to cultivate such a high level of discourse :)

my passion for our prospects and hopes of keeping them so they can come up through the systemand be long time dodger stars fuels my emotions over these rumors.

and to add, the majority of these rumors have the dodgers being ripped off in every trade. That, and the uncertainty of what we can expect from Ned if he turns into a dictator, also scares me.

155
Amazing how Choi is a decent 1st baseman because the defensive metrics say so but Bradley is fast because he plays CF even when the speed numbers say otherwise. He was fast when he was young, his speed has dropped every year to the point he is now just an average runner. Jim Edmounds plays CF, do you consider him a fleet runner?

118 Remember that Beane himself was a toolsy outfielder. That was the opening anecdote of Moneyball, how Beane blew everyone away in tryouts but couldn't produce on the field. Lewis attributed that experience to forming Beane's belief that tools are overrated and don't always translate to production.

And I think part of his belief also is that the downfall of most "toolsy" players is lack of plate discipline. Of the names mentioned by Eric (Bonds, Pujols, Abreu, Cabrera, Wright) every one of them has superior plate discipline. Highly touted toolsy failures such as Ruben Rivera, for instance, didn't.

As an aside:

Did folks see this: http://tinyurl.com/b3uoh?

It's a review on Rotowire of the top performers from last year at each position, by WARP (and VORP). Very interesting.

One particularly salient point: the author was struck by the fact that several center fielders received limited ABs (due to injury, etc.) and so extrapolated the numbers for all centerfielders to 600 ABs. The results:

Jim Edmonds 467 11.4
Jason Michaels 289 8.3
Andruw Jones 586 8.1
Milton Bradley 283 8.1

The first column is actual 2005 ABs, the second is the WARP projected over a 600 AB season. It's clear that's a bit unlikely (only four CFs reached 600 ABs, and four more topped 500), so the total WARP projection is pretty useless. What's interesting is the order of the names on that list. (Beltran is 17th, for instance.) Of course, staying healthy might be considered a "skill" that is unaccounted for in such projections. Still, intersting.

Finally, the author has this to say about Bradley:
"I can't rave enough about Milton Bradley. His health and attitude are huge question marks, but when a guy has the potential to be a top five CF, you don't nontender him. Unless he killed someone. Even then, I'd hesitate to nontender him."

161
Dittos.
Except i've lost confidence in jackson.

Except i've lost confidence in jackson.

why? hes only 22 yrs old. and when he didnt have back spasms last year, he pitched well for the dodgers.

[145] molokai, was that 95 milton's score for '05? what was his '04 score? maybe the knee injury had something to do with it being low.

167
I didn't hear about any back spasms, are you sure he had them and when he struggled it was because of this.

I didn't hear about any back spasms, are you sure he had them and when he struggled it was because of this.

he was taken out of the colorado game and the SD game because of them.

9/5/2005, L.A. Times

"The first six Colorado runs came on two-run, two-out hits in the third, fourth and fifth innings against starter Edwin Jackson, who battled back spasms. He was oblivious to the fact that he was one batter away from getting out of all three jams."

160 - Well, I don't know what's happening in reality, I only know (and have any opinion about) what's happening here. And people are getting inflamed. Nate himself says so. Nate is worried that we're getting ripped off in rumors.

I'm not trying to be a snob ... well, maybe I am. Yes, of course I want this comments area to be more thoughtful and intelligent and sane than the chatrooms you find elsewhere. Not less fun. Just more thoughtful. Otherwise, what's the point?

Hearing shouts of "the sky is falling" with every rumor - I can get that on talk radio.

170
Man the announcers on mlb gameday are poor at passing on the news to the listeners.

171 That's a bizzare quote. Did Jackson literally not realize there were two outs?

158 - It adds more to the "overrated" column. And if DePo knew about it, then Roy Smith and Kim Ng should, too right? He's going to cost a lot of prospects and it's not worth it and it doesn't take any advanced models to know it. I'm just saying I have a hard time believing that rumor, unless it's Ned who wants Soriano.

So when is it okay to get emotional over a rumor? if rosenthal reports it? if gurnick or henson reports it? when the deal actually happens?

Since there is no actual baseball to take my mind off them, its hard not to get emotional over rumors, especially ones that would make the dodgers worse off.

"In the Hot Stove League, truth is the always first casualty."

Winston Rickey, 1946

[172] okay, i'll try not to perpetuate any rumor-mill feeding frenzies myself. though i haven't actually been finding and posting any anyway. i certainly refuse to get worked up until something actually happens. but i'll definitely be commiserating with nate if something stupid goes down :)

soo... how them vikes eh? 7-5, we are going to the playoffs! :)

172
Jon - To clarify, which of the following are you saying:

1. It doesn't make sense to get upset over rumors, but it's fine to get upset (and express your discontent here on DT) over actual bad deals.

2. Baseball isn't important enough to get upset over.

172 Well, what constitutes going too far?

Level 1: Hey here's a rumor
Level 2: If that happened, it would not be a good thing.
Level 3: Burn in hell, Colletti.

Or somewhere in between?

176. my guess would be when two somewhat respectable journalists report similar details without sourcing each other, their like lawyers, they love to do that.

is gammons a respectable journalist?

139 - Hi Jon,

As a new visitor and recent refugee from the music business (and the blogs and boards in that world), I've gotta tell ya: I find the tone and level of discussion here to be refreshingly friendly, fun, and informative. You should see the kind of nastiness in which musicians will engage - it's brutal!

I agree with you that it's too early for the "Coletti is an idiot" talk, and as someone else said, there is just as much reason to be optimistic as pessimistic about the Dodgers - and I'm choosing to be optimistic.

But I just wanted to weigh in and let you all know how much I enjoy DT and how much I am learning (and how much my work is suffering!).

131 My sense on Soriano is that there is a belief that he could be a poster child for the conflict between the old school and the new school. He's toolsy and put up huge power and steal numbers (especially for a second baseman). But he's terrible at getting on base, and plays in a hitter's park. In addition, but harder to quantify, most seem to think he's brutal with the leather. Looking back to the WARP rankings from last year, Soriano was 19th among second basemen (3.7), behind Rich Aurilia, Ryan Freel and Mark Grudzielanek, and way behind the league leaders (Brian Robert, 8.9, Chase Utley, and Marcus Giles 7.8, Jeff Kent, 7.4). I guess it may in part come down to how much stock you are willing to put in a metric like WARP (which includes defense). But even by the more standard OPS+, Kent has a decided edge.

176 - Maybe try to use "when the deal actually happens" as a guideline, for starters.

It's actually quite easy not to get emotional over rumors if you treat them as rumors. I really think you must not be accepting the fact that they are almost all falsehoods, sometimes gross falsehoods.

[183] no :)

187 - That's harsh, in the same calendar year as his induction into the HOF. When does he earn credibility? :-)

How about saving our vitriol for when a trade becomes reality? Or becomes clearly something that is about to happen, and not just a rumor? I think that's what Jon is suggesting and I'd agree with it. It can certainly be fun for some to talk about rumors, but I guess the freaking out about them, when 99% of them turn out to be just unfulfilled gossip, could be simmered down a bit.

Or does getting upset in advance make people less so when/if something actually comes to fruition? If that were true, I could sort of understand it, but doesn't seem to usually work that way with most of us.

anyone feel, with the way the orioles are losing out on all the FAs they want,they are going to give weaver a 5 yr 55 mil deal?

185. i dont think their is split along party lines when it comes to soriano, both sides think he's overrated, saber-guys dont like him because of low-OBP's and scouts dislike him because of poor defense. I think both sides see Soriano as overrated, and Texas is hoping that they can find someone that still believes that Soriano is the superstar many thought he was when they traded ARod for him. Even dumbass sports writers know that soriano is terribly overrated. The real question is, if everyone thinks Soriano is overrated, is he really overrated anymore?

Again, why can't we have good rumors, like Chad Billingsley and Joel Guzman for Chase Utley. At least we would get something good coming back.

I could see Weaver joining the Orioles - but that may only be because I associate Earl Weaver with them (no relation). ;-) Him going to the Angels makes more sense: location, and his brother.

190. id rather weaver go to someone with a winning record last year. for some reason ive always thought weaver would end up in Baltimore, i dont know why.

the A's fan in me wants to see Zito traded to Baltimore for Markakis and Penn. That would be sweet.

180 -

1) I agree with this.

2) I get upset over baseball. You just keep it in perspective.

181 - LOL

184 - Thanks.

185

Welcome aboard, Paul!

I welcomed the wrong person. I meant 184, although I have no animus toward 185.

I agree with Jon to a certain extent. I get upset over people getting upset about rumors because not only do we not know who we would have to give up, but we don't know if there's much truth to them at all. If it was Soriano for Orenduff and Aybar, would everyone still be up in arms? We can't always assume Bills, Guzman, etc. are part of any deal.

As for Soriano, I think he has become underrated to an extent. You can look at his texas home/road splits and freak out, or you can look back to when he was hitting in a park unfriendly to righthanders and see that he put up his best stats over there. With both he and Blalock posting similar splits, is it possible that their home park is actually bad for them? Kinda like the Coors effect where they're so used to hitting a certain way at home that it affects their road approach. Hopefully these players would realize they're going to less friendly parks and concentrate on just making good contact and not lofting fly balls that can only be homers in their home stadium.

Thanks for clearing that up, Bob. And even though you didn't mean it, I will nonetheless apply your welcome retroactively to when I actually did post for the first time. :)

And Paul B's name used to be right after that of Russ Ortiz.

196, 197 - Thanks, Bob! Doug Minnick

198. Yeah, if Soriano for Orenduff and Aybar happened, I wouldn't be very happy about that at all, but that's just me.

194
You make a great point. Even the great Teixeira only posted an 800 OPS on the road compared to the 1100 at home. Does anyone really think Teixeira is only a 800 OPS player? Soriano did produce in Yankee stadium, a tough stadium for RHH. He is a butcher in the field which negates alot of his offensive production especially his lack of OBP but his extra base hit power is impressive and I think will play in any park.

I meant to reference 198

Jon, your constant self appraisal, and appraisals of the quality of content and conduct on DT make it the great place that it is. I appreciate the way you challenge us, and invite us to participate in the evaluation process.

In a therapeutic group setting anything which provokes emotion; be it, rumors, hypothetical, or fact, are worthy of expression and exploration. And as such, are all part of "dealing psychologically" with anything, including the Dodgers. When we are able to react to the issue, rather than the emotion that may be inspired in us, we are able to be more objective and issue centric.

I love the talk about rumors but I don't like anyone taking them seriously. Is that incompatible?

As a TV aside, ABC shows "A Charlie Brown Christmas" tonight at 8 PM (7 Central/Mountain).

I learned how to dance from watching this show!

This show first aired on TV one day before I was born.

And for our younger set, when we were kids the show would be on TV once. And if you weren't home or you forgot to tune in or the TV was broken, you were out of luck for the whole year.

Of course, I'm recording it this year as I have to work.
ABC is budgeting an hour for it so I assume there will be a lot of commercials and maybe something about the making of the cartoon.

oh yea, I forgot to say easier said than done.

207
You will also get to hear the sad "Christmas Time is Here" song that was used so brilliantly on Arrested Development.

209 - Last night's episode was finally a disappointment for me.

I don't remember, but was Milton Bradley ejected from any games in 2005?

Bob, were you mimicking the kid who was just bobbing his head left and right?

I remember seeing the first broadcast of A Charlie Brown Christmas. Linus gives the same narration of the wise men coming to Bethlehem (or wherever that was supposed to have happened), that I had to give at my 6th grade Christmas play.

210-
I liked the whole last segment with the marriage party. "Why am I not sinking!"

AN is saying Gammons said the A's are close to signing Frank Thomas and trading for David Wells. I do not care what anyone says if the A's trade for Wells, Zito is gone.

210
Unfortunately, I agree. There were some fun moments, but overall, that episode ranked toward the bottom. I have to say that the Rita storyline was ultimately a failure. I never really got into, but held out hope that it would pay off in the end. It didn't.

212

That's exactly what I do. I have absolutely no ability to dance in any other style.

Linus's talk at the end ("Lights please") is actually the Nativity story from Luke. The Wise Men appear in Matthew.

For a 22 or 23-minute show, they packed in a lot of themes: holiday depression, commercialization of Christmas, religion, peer pressure.

I would also point out that in California, first cousins are already allowed to marry each other, so George Michael's initiative campaign is not necessary.

213-
Of course Beane could be using Gammons again to spread false information.

Does anyone else think Bavasi gets fired after this coming season as Seattle's GM?

I always loved the Kids in the Hall sketch referencing the Charle Brown Christmas, where the guys are mimicking the dancing the kids do at the XMas pageant. Vince Guaraldi's score has never been topped either. I still tear up at the end, too.

I also love, for different reasons, Futurama's "X-Mas" episode.

Meanwhile, back to baseball...

Rickey Henderson has officially retired.

I knew it was from the Bible, but I would not have the first clue which book, so thanks.

One of my favorite stories is of a friend of mine who was a copy editor in Illinois and had to write a caption for an Easter picture. In it he referred to the "alleged" resurrection. His paper got a lot of angry calls and mail.

Pay Rickey's pension!

212,215 To get the dance right, you need to swivel your feet from extreme pigeon toe to extreme out-toe in time with the head bob.

119 Could it be that we're just measuring the wrong tools?

The 5-tool list itself seems to compare apples with oranges. Running speed and arm (strength/accuracy) are tools. A player can show you what he's got outside of a game context if you have a stopwatch and some measuring tape. But 'hit for power,' 'hit for average,' and arguably 'defense,' are results, measured statistically, unconnected to some inherent attribute of the player.

I wonder if--hypothetically--you could come up with a list of the actual tools that matter, whose measurement could predict a player's ultimate production:

eyesight
reflexes
spatial judgement
foot speed at several distances
time to reach top speed
bat speed
ability to adjust
memory
durability (bone mass? muscle flexibility?)

A guy with great eyesight who can judge the flight of the ball, can both run the bases quickly and pursue batted balls quickly, who can get his bat thru the strike zone quickly, who remembers pitching and hitting patterns, who can change their own patterns as needed, and whose bones are less prone to breaking and muscles and tendons less prone to tearing--that's a toolsy guy. Power, average and good defense would probably be predictable from these, or other tools like them.

218. was that the one with the evil mechanical santa?

223. scouts can tell things like bat speed, power, and plate coverage from watching a player take BP. thats why they get paid for watching lots of baseball games. thats why, for example, we heard that jeremy hermida had power for the last couple years even though he was slugging around .400 before 2005, scouts said he had a lot of power in his swing.

Here is what I find interesting. Dusty Baker and Jim Tracy, two guys who have managed Jeff Kent recently are willing to bring on Milton Bradley.

It can't be just due to talent, can it? Maybe both men realize that KENT may be at the very least as big a problem or am I just reading into it to much?

223 Interesting point. The thing about the 5 tools is that they purport to cover the skillsets that will project a player's position or style of play. One problem is that "hit for average" has been found to be a misleading skill. Strike zone judgement combined with bat speed should is more accurate. Power is definitely an valuable skill. Arm strength and glove together are valuable in assessing player's potential position. Speed also, and speed may have more value on the basepaths than we know yet.

Instincts/intelligence (are they related?) are big too, but I bet scouts look for that and note it in their reports.

207 ABC stretched it out that way last year, too. Yeah, lots more commercials, ironically, and some filler about the making-of that's only so-so. But it was inevitable. As the LA Times story today (front page) says, the ad time is among the priciest you can buy now.

Like Marty, I'm old enough to remember the very first broadcast of A Charlie Brown Christmas. It was a big water cooler show at Roxbury Elementary School in Stamford, Connecticut. It's funny how much we kids loved Peanuts back then--a strip all about disappointment and feeling awkward. Kids today role-play themselves as omnipotent superheroes or megathugs. But 40 years ago we identified with a kid nobody liked, with no identifiable talents.

When that show first ran, the idea of Peanuts on TV was HUGE.

224 Yep. Although I think there were two episodes with the evil robot Santa... and Bender helps save the day. I just liked how Fry was depressed by the whole idea, and implores everyone, "Can we just not talk about XMas?" And then the Jamaican guy walks in, "Merry XMas everyone! Merry Xmas! Xmas!" etc

223 It's a great point, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more work done on these indicia of human performance.

I recently spoke with a psychologist who is a respected clinician and researcher. While it's not his professional bailiwick, he's interested in the subject. He seemed nonplussed about the resistance to embrace objective measures of athletes. For instance, he believed that it would be possible to measure an individual's ability to focus and screen extraneous information/stimuli and to use that as a predictor of certain athletic prowess. It's all very interesting.

But wow, if you thought the oldtimers resisted OPS/VORP/WARP. . .

Gammons just said on ESPN that Zito to LA is done and Zito may be very hard to trade now because he is going to want big money (more than Burnett) to sign an extension with a team.

Can't...help it...must post...rumors....

http://tinyurl.com/dcf49

highlights: Pittsburgh has made a 1-year offer (no financial terms disclosed) to JT Snow.

Pittsburgh might also make a play for Jason Michaels, offering Mark Redman, if Philly keeps Abreu.

232 - Wild speculation, beware. A Bradley package for Zito and acquisition of Soriano may mean Soriano to left field? This could mean Kent stays at 2B and Choi still has a job, but means Soriano's numbers are less valuable as an outfielder (though admittedly, his defense may be less of a burden to the team).

232 That statement was a bit ambiguous. When he says a Zito deal is done, he means it is not happening rather than completed, correct?

232 Done as in dead or done as in complete?

235 - Okay that makes more sense.

I just read the LA Times review of "A Charlie Brown Christmas" which ran on December 10, 1965.

The headline was:
"Wet Blanket for Peanut Fans"

..."It was not a bad show, but many of the strip's purist fans probably experienced a letdown. Somehow, even though the script and storyboard were prepared by Schulz, something was lost in the translation from the printed page to the tube."

Done as in its dead.

JP decided to do as DePo did, although slightly different. He gave his injured signee an opt out year after 3 years, rather than 2.

240 "Injured signee" should be injury prone, $55 mil signee

240. depo wasnt responsible for drew's out clause, boras was

One way to torment long-departed critics is to cite their original reviews of movies/TV shows/music that has, with time, become regarded as "classic."

Rolling Stone, for example, was very negative about both the Stones' "Sticky Fingers" and Neil Young's "After the Goldrush." If I'm not mistaken, the supposedly great writer James Agee gave a negative review to "Casablanca," and, more recently, the NY Times originally despised "Dr. Strangelove." I remember as a kid being very mad that all the newspaper critics disliked "Gilligan's Island," and I blamed the critics for the show's unwarranted cancellation.

That would never happen now, however, since we live in a time when most 9-year-olds neither know nor care what's in the newspaper.

243 - That was my original plan with Plaschke's criticisms of DePo after they started to win... oh the best laid plans.

226 No.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2141482

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051206&content_id=1277102&vkey=hotstove2005&fext=.jsp

It was Baker that really saw the potential in Kent and put him in behind Bonds. It's also probably one reason why Kent went to Houston (Baker was gone). I can't find it on the net, but I recall Baker defended Kent shortly after Bradley's media outburst.

244 Eh, Plaschke was wrong about pretty much every major move the Dodgers made, off the top of my head:

Supported the Piazza trade
Supported the Brown and Green signings
Wanted to give Charles Johnson a lot of money so some kid LoDuca wouldn't have to handle the pitching staff.
And so on.

245 I thought it was the other way around. Kent cited his good relationship with Baker as proof that Bradley's depiction of Kent's racial attitudes were off-base.

232 - So I guess ol' Ned wouldn't part with the prospects. That's a good sign. Wonder who Beane was holding out for. Billingsley didn't make a whole lot of sense, considering the A's young rotation. And Billingsley was a HS pitcher, correct?. Does that matter this far along in a pitcher's development?

I could see him wanting Russell Martin real bad. He seems like the quintessential A's player, and I don't think the A's have a lot coming at catcher.

The A's drafted a bunch of high school pitchers this year and no a player being from high school really does not matter to the A's. It's what the player is or will be not where they came from.

245 yeah, Kent did do that in one of the URLs I posted (sorry, no tinyURL), along with others. But I'm pretty sure Baker said something, too. Although, I've had wrong memories before.

249 - From Moneyball, was it just college hitters they preferred? No preference on pitchers? I thought that was a reason they traded Bonderman.

No other major paper reviewed a "Charlie Brown Christmas" as far as I can tell. I would assume that the N.Y. Times wouldn't have sullied themselves at the time to review a children's program. The Chicago Tribune had a lot of stories previewing it.

One issue that people were worried about was what would the characters sound like. They had only been voiced in a few commercials and in tiny animated intros to the Tennessee Ernie Ford Show.

Schulz and producer Lee Mendelson opted to use children of approximately the same age as the characters (6 to 9) and to use the trumpet sound for the adult, a decision that worked out very well.

In other TV news from 1965, CBS announced that it would show Walter Cronkite's newscast in color to keep up with the Huntley-Brinkley Report.

219 - Can we get a link on Rickey?

I think they prefered only college players in the moneyball draft. From what I recall, Beane had someone who put up ridiculous numbers in college in mind, then the scouts picked Bonderman who they liked because he threw hard and had a good frame.

At the time they preferred college pitchers because they were more polished and could contribute quicker. Bonderman was not someone Beane wanted to pick and he had value so the A's traded him pretty quickly.

College pitchers were also undervalued at the time. Now high school pitchers are so the A's draft them this year, plus a lot of the talent in their farm system is in the higher levels and they wanted to get some talent in the lower levels.

The A's drafted two catchers in the first round in 2004, the kid from South Carolina, Landon Powell, and Maui built Kurt Suzuki from Fullerton and CWS fame. Powell was hurt all year, I think, and though it looked like he didn't play all that much, Suzuki seems to have had a decent AFL season for Phoenix playing behind Atlanta's super prospect Saltalamaccia.
So I would guess that there might not be too much interest in Martin/Navarro from the A's, even though they are more advanced prospects.

252
FYI - The commercial-free version is 25:42 in length.

FOXSport.com reports that a deal is close, Dave Williams for Sean Casey. I'm sure Tracy will love a 1B like Casey. Could be a rumor at this point. If this is true, the chances of getting Dunn, or any Cincinnati OF is more or less gone (unless we want Denorfia)

A Casey/Saenz platoon at first base perhaps for the Bucs? That's a professional hitter's dream!

259 - May we have a moment of silence to honor the passing of all Adam Dunn trade rumors.

252 As you know, "A Charlie Brown Christmas" led to many other Charlie Brown specials and a couple of movies. My son was really into them for awhile--so much so that he occasionally adopted the same speaking style as the child actors who voiced the characters. What's amusing on TV isn't so amusing when you're trying to find out if your son did his homework.

I wonder in how many other households was "Stop talking like Linus!" a frequent parental nag.

The movie "Snoopy Come Home" makes me cry everytime I watch it.

252 That makes me remember how big a deal it was when your favorite programs went from B&W to Color. Shows like Gilligans Island, Beverly Hillbillies, Green Acres, Andy Griffith, etc.

Sometimes it was like that's when a given show jumped the shark.

Icaros! Where you been?

264 - "Home Improvement" certainly was in trouble the moment it appeared in color.

I almost did an entire post about this. Who knows the connection between Reggie Smith and "The Andy Griffith Show?"

I reiterate, I HATED Home Improvement

Hi.

I've been learning the ropes at my new job and slowly moving into an apartment in San Francisco. I have very limited computer access right now.

I was also on a sabbatical of silence in protest of the firing of my lord and savior Paul DePodesta.

When the conversation turned to Charlie Brown, I had to return. I love the Peanuts.

263
You're not alone, Icaros. You're not alone.

Now I just cry when people tell me that Juan Pierre is a disruptive force at the top of the order.

The "Andy Griffith Show" question stumps me. Did Reggie Smith have a cameo as "The One Black Guy Who Happened to Live in Mayberry?"

268
Icaros it's just "Peanuts". It's just like "Staples Center".

270 I didn't want to write, "I love Peanuts."

I love "Peanuts".

There you go. Punctuation Man to the rescue!

271 what, you allergic? :-)

Was Reggie actually on The Andy Griffith Show?

Grady Little it is. Good choice I think.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5143766

Grady Little is the manager of the Dodgers.

Juan Pierre hits like The Little Red-Haired Girl.

Blast it! Foiled again by that meddling Punctuation Man...

Hopefully the in game mistakes are kept to a minimum. Now time to fill the coaching staff

I guess we can assume Fregosi/Acta were not used to get Furcal here

Little is an ok choice--not inspiring, but not Fregosi! What was he like as Red Sox manager, besides the Pedro mistake?

273 I prefer Cashews. Or is it The Cashews?

Now that we have a manager and a general manager, maybe McCourt can fire them both and start the search all over again!

The guys on ESPN 710 are reporting that Grady Little is being signed to manage the Dodgers. Then in the next breathe they complained that they wanted Bowden and Fregosi and are stuck with Coletti and Little.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2250256

8:00 press conference

The team that didn't know what they had in Pedro just hired the guy who didn't know how to handle Pedro...talk about coming full circle.

279 - He was a success - just as the last flight of the Hindenberg was a success, save for the mooring.

So NOW we can say "Burn in Hell, Coletti."

I'm happy with Little and now we have a manager.

Since we're moving on to Grady talk in the new post above, I'll give the trivia answer here.

Reggie Smith was the propmaster of "The Andy Griffith Show" throughout it's run. This Reggie Smith did not have the same DNA as the Reggie Smith who played Major League Baseball.

But every time I have seen the closing credits of the show for the past 28 years, I have been reminded of the ballplayer.

I've said it before, but Little scares me. That blunder with Pedro was biblical. Not just the context, but the magnitude of stupidity. I've rarely seen someone choke that bad. I hope he's learned from that.

we should've hired Fregosi
that way we would've had both

I'm just glad it's over. Any chance Little will be able to influence them signing Nomar? (Please don't say "Little chance")...

278, 282 -
From a July 2004 Boston Globe article:

"Little, an old-school manager not overly enamored with the statistical nuances of the Sox organization (though he used them at management's urging), is gaining popularity because of his style. One of his best friends is Jack McKeon, who has won a championship with the Marlins and has Florida in position to make the postseason once again."

Not sure what "old school" means but I guess we will find out in about an hour.

284LOL...I wouldn't post anymore if I were you. You will never top that one. That's classic.