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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Gagne Goes Back to the O.R.
2006-04-06 17:45
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Yeah, they didn't get it quite right the first time. Go figure.

From MLB.com:

Dodgers closer Eric Gagne will undergo another operation on his right elbow, this one to remove the nerve that was repositioned in his 2005 surgery, the Dodgers announced Thursday.

Gagne, who pitched in just 14 games last season, will have the operation performed Friday morning at the Kerwin-Jobe Clinic in Los Angeles. Dr. Ralph Gambarella and Dr. Frank Jobe will perform the surgery.

There is no timetable for Gagne's return, a club spokesman said. The Dodgers begin a three-game series at Philadelphia on Friday.

Here's the Dodger Thoughts post from when doctors called an audible on Gagne's 2005 surgery:

Eric Gagne's surprisingly good surgery news gets discussed by Will Carroll in a special newsletter extra from Baseball Prospectus today.

He'll pitch with the same old ligament (nee tendon), but less of the nerve pulling, a similar problem to that which ended Brad Penny's season in 2004, albeit in a different location.

Some might question why Gagne's ligament wasn't replaced or overlayed in the modern technique, especially with an accelerated rehab schedule. It's hard to question Frank Jobe when it comes to a pitcher's elbow, but there could be some second guessing if Gagne is as slow to return as Penny was during the spring of 2005. Gagne's quotes about a replaced UCL having a limited life span will still echo in the heads of many Dodgers fans.

For now, the prognosis is roughly the same as before, with a bit more certainty that Gagne will be back in spring training. The key now is to make use of the impending six months of rehab to get his mechanics to such a stage that the elbow isn't restressed and that the National League is.

I might add that if Gagne needs an extra few weeks in 2006, as Penny did this past spring, let's not be hasty. Let's give them to him. Perhaps, let's even encourage him to take them, if he can't be trusted not to take risks.

It's funny how players like J.D. Drew and Odalis Perez get such grief for taking time to heal properly, when we so often see the pitfalls of coming back too soon. Of course, sometimes a quick return is successful without any consequences - other times it's successful with consequences. (Curt Schilling, anyone?) But very often, dashing back onto the field is downright foolhardy.

I guess some always have the suspicion that players who take their time with their recoveries are spineless, cowardly and yella, but cowardice sometimes can be a wonderful thing.

Does this make us reevaluate the Edwin Jackson/Chuck Tiffany for Danys Baez/Lance Carter trade? Not really. The Baez trade was always more likely to help the team in 2006 but possibly hurt the team down the road. This news doesn't change that.

Mostly, I just feel awful that the Great Gagne era ended with such a crash.

Update: Here's Steve Henson's Times story.

Comments (238)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-04-06 17:50:49
1.   ScoobyGoo
The next time I learn that a pitcher has an "ear infection", I'll know the truth..
2006-04-06 17:50:50
2.   Daniel Zappala
Oh great.
2006-04-06 17:51:27
3.   Uncle Miltie
Steroids? Don't resign him Ned!
2006-04-06 17:54:11
4.   King of the Hobos
This almost guaruntees that Gagne's option will not be picked up, providing the Dodgers with even more money to spend this offseason (assuming Baez doesn't get a BJ Ryan-esque contract from Flanders)
2006-04-06 17:54:31
5.   natepurcell
i doubt ned will give gagne a huge contract.

i doubt anytime will give gagne a long term deal.

2006-04-06 17:56:04
6.   natepurcell
according to henson, saito will be called up.
2006-04-06 17:56:29
7.   trainwreck
Sadly, this looks like the possible end to Game Over. Let the Bull's reign begin!

Yes, I still think the Baez trade was dumb.

2006-04-06 17:57:58
8.   trainwreck
Saito... uggggggggghhh.
2006-04-06 17:59:36
9.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
Quick thoughts:
1. I'm getting really annoyed at the team's medical staff. There never seems to be any certaintly with this bunch, and the team suffers for it. I had a good tirade late in the '03 season about Odalis Perez and how his injury woes were handled - and the rant still applies.
If I'm in upper management I start examining the trainers' work very closely.
2. Good to get this out of the way early. IMO, it damages a team when a key component is in a long injury-caused limbo: He's a week away from returning! He's back! He's hurt! But he'll be better in a week, ad infinitum.
3. I'd much rather have Baez as closer than Duaner Sanchez, so kudos to Ned for planning ahead for exactly this situation.
4. Eric, we'll always have 2003.
2006-04-06 18:00:18
10.   Curtis Lowe
Maybe it's not as bad as it sounds.
2006-04-06 18:02:55
11.   trainwreck
Brilliant move by the Pirates to put Chris Shelton on waivers.
2006-04-06 18:03:24
12.   natepurcell
Maybe it's not as bad as it sounds.

i dunno but removing a nerve from your elbow sounds pretty bad to me.

2006-04-06 18:04:08
13.   Curtis Lowe
12- Maybe they just have to get rid of some scar tissue.
2006-04-06 18:05:37
14.   Steve
Steve Phillips just reported that Gagne is going to have his third Tommy John surgery.
2006-04-06 18:05:52
15.   natepurcell
re 13

lol! ive heard more talk about "oh its just scar tissue" in the last year then i ever have.

2006-04-06 18:06:02
16.   King of the Hobos
11 Shelton was a Rule 5 pick by the Tigers, a reward for their horrific 2003 season, not a waiver claim
2006-04-06 18:06:44
17.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
14 - He is so dumb.
2006-04-06 18:07:27
18.   natepurcell
apparently every kind of elbow surgery to phillips is a tommy john surgery.
2006-04-06 18:08:10
19.   dsfan
I said it at the time: Baez was a hedge against Gagne. And yes it should make you re-evaluate the Baez trade. It's reasonable to assume the LAD had more doubts about Gagne than they could say. Put it this way: You have to like the Baez trade a bit more now than you did a few weeks ago. (And I know there are people here who believe saves are over-rated).
2006-04-06 18:09:18
20.   dsfan
Nate, were you able to get the Jacksonville tv cam? Didn't work for me.
2006-04-06 18:09:35
21.   Curtis Lowe
How much more conditioning does Broxton need?
2006-04-06 18:10:14
22.   Steve
Nope, because Gagne is not replaceable, and Baez is eminently replaceable.
2006-04-06 18:10:17
23.   natepurcell
re 20

no, its not working for some reason. maybe its not even turned on. last year, it was always on regardless if there was a game or not. But i am listening to the audio. you can get it at jaxsuns.com

2006-04-06 18:13:00
24.   King of the Hobos
Adam Dunn just hit a homer really far. Roughly a field goal shot between the "stacks" in center field
2006-04-06 18:13:51
25.   trainwreck
16
Oh yeah, my mistake.

My friend who follows Japanese baseball told me that Saito was not even good in Japan. What is he doing in our pen?

2006-04-06 18:15:02
26.   dsfan
23 thanks
2006-04-06 18:17:10
27.   Steve
I amend. Gagne is replaceable, but not by the likes of middle relievers like Baez.
2006-04-06 18:17:25
28.   DaveP
25 - Saito's stats from Japan:

http://tinyurl.com/lv4lv

2006-04-06 18:17:36
29.   King of the Hobos
Joel Guzman is playing 1B for Vegas tonight. Unless they really don't like Ethier in CF (Duncan's there), I sense something might have happened regarding Saenz, Kent, or Loney
2006-04-06 18:21:13
30.   Linkmeister
27 Baez had what, 41 saves last year? Whatever else he is, he's proven he can close, so calling him a middle reliever is inaccurate.
2006-04-06 18:21:33
31.   Jon Weisman
19 - No, I feel the same way about the trade. If I bring an umbrella because of threat of rain, whether it rains or not does not affect the quality of my decision.
2006-04-06 18:22:47
32.   trainwreck
I do not care what you call Baez, he is nothing special. I would be fine with Kuo as our closer.
2006-04-06 18:24:09
33.   Steve
Bill Plaschke writes sentences, but one wouldn't call him a "journalist."
2006-04-06 18:24:52
34.   Bob Timmermann
I suppose the absence of Eric Gagne on one of the two big posters on Dodger Stadium was a good idea.

Kent and Furcal got those spots this year.

2006-04-06 18:26:17
35.   Marty
31 You should have added a "grasshopper" on the end of that :)
2006-04-06 18:27:22
36.   Uncle Miltie
At least we don't have Tracy anymore. He'd probably make Brazoban the closer again.
2006-04-06 18:27:22
37.   alnyden
Another season without Gange. The news coming the day after five Dodgers are injured in one game. Which happened two days after two starters are placed on the DL. So we have a new manager, a new GM, and half a team of new players, but in the end, we are going to relive 2005. Devistating.
2006-04-06 18:28:38
38.   trainwreck
Mark Hendrickson closing for the Rays. No wonder Baez was their closer.
2006-04-06 18:29:05
39.   King of the Hobos
Reports on the homer from 24 say that the ball hit a car, albeit on a bounce
2006-04-06 18:29:19
40.   DodgerHobbit
I think it's just that they don't have anyone to play 1B at AAA.
I'd suspect that if Loney were to have gotten injured in Vegas Guzman would be switched over to 1B and a reserve outfielder put in Guzman's place.
2006-04-06 18:30:29
41.   Bob Timmermann
I was talking today to a coworker about Kenny Lofton. Does he exist as a Dodger? I never saw him play in spring training. I've just read interviews with him. Are there photos of him in a Dodgers uniform extant or is that like finding a photo of that mysterious woodpecker in the Appalachians?
2006-04-06 18:30:46
42.   King of the Hobos
38 Hendrickson shut down the Orioles? Wow. They may have Mazzone, but who said they can hit?
2006-04-06 18:30:49
43.   al bundy
So what's Frank Jobe's BA these days?
2006-04-06 18:31:21
44.   Uncle Miltie
38- ? He's going for a CG shutout.
2006-04-06 18:31:45
45.   natepurcell
duaner is in for the mets.
2006-04-06 18:31:49
46.   ScoobyGoo
37

The sad thing is..it might end up being worse than 2005...

2006-04-06 18:32:05
47.   King of the Hobos
40 Truby and Alvarez are both capable of playing 1B, and both are riding the bench. It's not like Duncan is worth ABs over those two. And why play Guzman at 1B when you're specifically trying to get him familiar with a new position?
2006-04-06 18:32:10
48.   trainwreck
37
We did a lot, but in the end really did nothing. I said in the off-season that this team looked like it had more injury problems than last year's team.
2006-04-06 18:32:19
49.   Linkmeister
Duaner in for the Mets.
2006-04-06 18:32:54
50.   Steve
Tampa Bay's closer is Dan Miceli.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-04-06 18:32:58
51.   Bob Timmermann
"Old Friend" Duaner Sanchez just K'd Jose Guillen in the 7th in New York. Guillen had tried to charge the mound to fight "old friend" Pedro Martinez who hit him twice with pitches.

Poor Jose Guillen. No one loves him.

2006-04-06 18:33:07
52.   Linkmeister
45 Phoo. I should have refreshed before I noted that Sanchez came in.
2006-04-06 18:33:37
53.   MartinBillingsley31
Well there goes what i was calling "an above average bullpen", now its average, to go along with average starting pitching plus average starting offense.

Plus who knows if nomar is really healthy to where he can produce 18-20 hrs.

This team has obp but that's it, everything else is average.

The funny thing is, if the top prospects get called up for injuries, we will stay afloat, and end up with a little better record than last season and NOBODY in the mainstream media will say that ned put together a fragile team and call for his head on a platter, like they did with depodesta.

2006-04-06 18:34:38
54.   D4P
So what's Frank Jobe's BA these days?

Bank account...?

2006-04-06 18:35:15
55.   Bob Timmermann
Does Nomar Garciaparra actually exist as a Dodger?
2006-04-06 18:35:49
56.   trainwreck
44
I saw Hendrickson and could not fathom he was put in to close. Baltimore has offensive issues.
2006-04-06 18:35:52
57.   jasonungar05
yeah, this is rough. At this point I am afraid if we bring prospects up they will get hurt as well.
2006-04-06 18:36:16
58.   natepurcell
duaners in trouble!
2006-04-06 18:36:27
59.   Bob Timmermann
56

Didn't Baltimore score 16 runs yesterday?

2006-04-06 18:36:36
60.   trainwreck
*was in the game before coming in to close
2006-04-06 18:37:17
61.   natepurcell
terrible AB by zimmerman, bad night all at the plate for him.
2006-04-06 18:37:41
62.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
This team has obp but that's it, everything else is average.
If your offense must be one-dimensional, OBP is the dimension you want above all.
2006-04-06 18:38:05
63.   trainwreck
59
Yeah, but there offensive production went down a lot last season and I heard that basically Tejada does not look good at all. I would be worried if I was an Orioles fan, especially if Hendrickson just show you down for an entire game.
2006-04-06 18:38:28
64.   Blu2
Can Repko close or play first?
2006-04-06 18:38:29
65.   sanchez101
Its nice to have Baez now with Gagne gone, you cant really have too many bullpen arms. But now Im afraid of the potential for Ned to give Baez a stupid contract after this season. We really need to hope that Kuo and/or Broxton can impress enough to prevent that from happening.
2006-04-06 18:38:36
66.   bigcpa
Bradley and Gagne were the two players I most looked forward to seeing play the last few years. Playoffs or not, this team will not have swagger.

By the way, did anyone see Bradley's triple last night to setup the winning run? He and Swisher were doing the dugout patty-cake. So sad.

2006-04-06 18:38:40
67.   trainwreck
*shot
2006-04-06 18:39:41
68.   MartinBillingsley31
If your offense must be one-dimensional, OBP is the dimension you want above all.

Very true, but the overall team picture is bad.

2006-04-06 18:40:17
69.   King of the Hobos
Akin pitch the last 3 innings in relief of Elbert, giving up a run in the process. Vero loses 1-0 in its opener
2006-04-06 18:41:43
70.   gvette
53-- I wouldn't say that NOBODY in the mainstream media will say that Ned put together a fragile team,etc.

In today's paper Simers went after Lofton and all the other injured Dodgers, and that's even before the news about Gagne.

Baez may be Jeff Shaw revisited, but with help from Kuo,Brazobahn and Broxton (when they call him up); the bullpen can at least be functional.

The problem is still going to be the starting pitching.

2006-04-06 18:41:46
71.   xaphor
Did Gange's suspension count as games played or more precisely can the Dodgers claim insurance (if available) on Gange and would it carry over from last year?
2006-04-06 18:42:28
72.   Vishal
gosh, how depressing.
2006-04-06 18:44:27
73.   Bob Timmermann
And people scoffed at me picking the Padres to win the division.
2006-04-06 18:44:50
74.   Humma Kavula
Talk me down, Jon, and tell me about the half-full glass, 'cause I'm starting to think it's gonna be a looooooooooong season.
2006-04-06 18:45:48
75.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
So, in the same 24-hour span in which the Dodgers shelve Gagne, the Giants lose Lowry and the Pads might lose Klesko.
Who knew the season-opening series could hold such importance for the Snakes and Rox?
2006-04-06 18:46:27
76.   dsfan
What's the medical staff's batting average the last few years?

For allowing Gagne to pitch last spring on a bad knee, they started out 0-for-40 in 2005.

2006-04-06 18:47:23
77.   dsfan
So much for all the dross about how the LAD couldn't possible be as unlucky, in terms of injuries, as they were last year.
2006-04-06 18:47:23
78.   Steve
Bruce Froemming is at it again.
2006-04-06 18:48:40
79.   dsfan
Losing Klesko is a positive for the Padres.
2006-04-06 18:48:58
80.   ScoobyGoo
53

I actually expect the opposite..we all think they won't say anything about Ned cause we think the media had it in for DePo all along (which alot of them did), but two straight years of an injury-riddled roster is still two years of an injury-riddled roster no matter what your biases are..atleast to journalists not with the name B. Plaschke, oh wait maybe that gave it away, how about Bill P.

2006-04-06 18:49:40
81.   trainwreck
Goodbye Jim.
2006-04-06 18:50:43
82.   trainwreck
Tracy gets thrown out of the game. After arguing an obvious call, that was a mistake by the umpires.
2006-04-06 18:50:46
83.   Jon Weisman
77 - Yeah, that was never true. Not sure I expected it to be disproved in the first week, though.
2006-04-06 18:51:27
84.   Bob Timmermann
79
I agree. The Padres are hoping to find some excuse to get rid of Klesko.
2006-04-06 18:51:30
85.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
79 - Klesko, last season, had 38 XBH and 75 BB in 443 ABs. And that was a bad year.
He can hit.
2006-04-06 18:52:32
86.   sanchez101
What do you mean by "medical staff's batting average"? How often players came back in their expected time frame?
2006-04-06 18:52:56
87.   dsfan
I love young players as much as the next guy, but it's funny how so many people put Baez on the same level as Kuo, Broxton and Osoria, as if the latter three have done anything.

Baez has a legitimate track record of major league success. Kuo has a ticking bomb for an elbow. Broxton didn't even bother to get in shape, and Osoria's pitches are chum for a typical MLB lefty. It would be neat to see them blossom like Bobby Jenks did.

2006-04-06 18:54:11
88.   Curtis Lowe
At least Jose Cruz Jr. is set to have a good year.
2006-04-06 18:54:26
89.   Humma Kavula
[86] I think he's implying that part of the job of the medical staff, in addition to curing injuries, is preventing injuries.
2006-04-06 18:55:47
90.   Steve
I see that Tracy has the kind of leadoff hitter he's comfortable with.
2006-04-06 18:56:56
91.   ROC
75 LOL you're right GSfRB, and as much as I want to see the Dodgers in the playoffs I'd give that up for AZ & COL battling down to the wire.

And a Zaboni-aided 1-game playoff at Coors w/20+ runs be memorable and likely ensure whoever survived would go 3 'n out afterwards.

2006-04-06 18:57:41
92.   dsfan
86

Klesko used to be a good hitter. His body's falling apart now. In the first half of 2004, he had no power. In the second half of 2005, he again fell apart, batting .211 with four home runs. He cannot be counted on from day to day because of all the ailments. He's a terrible fielder. The Padres are better off with Gonzalez.

2006-04-06 18:59:27
93.   sanchez101
88. They have accopmlished a lot, the minors count as well. In particular, Osoria has succeeded in Las Vegas, where no other young pitcher has. The best part about those guys is that they make a fraction of Baez's salary.
2006-04-06 18:59:33
94.   natepurcell
you can listen to the 51s game here

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/multimedia/audio.jsp

2006-04-06 18:59:49
95.   Steve
And the kind of #2 hitter Tracy is comfortable with.
2006-04-06 19:01:21
96.   Curtis Lowe
I dont understand all the "The Sky is Falling" talk. Gagne's injury is left over from last season, which the Dodgers now have Baez to look to instead of an unproven Sanchez or Yhency. All injuries suffered yesterday are minor and we wont be seeing any players on the DL as a result. Nomar and Lofton aren't exactly being missed as Repko and Loney are filling in just fine for them.

The Dodgers have a healthy Drew a productive Cruz and a more solid starting rotation and bullpen.
What exactly is the problem here?

2006-04-06 19:01:31
97.   dsfan
80

Seems to me, Simers is saying a lot of things about Ned -- not very nice things, either.

2006-04-06 19:01:50
98.   Steve
[cackle, cackle]
2006-04-06 19:02:52
99.   natepurcell
the minor league affliates have been dissapointing today with their offensive output. hopefully LV can turn that around. they are going against the giants Brad Hennessey.
2006-04-06 19:04:44
100.   Bob Timmermann
Kim Ng is probably telling people "I told you I wasn't being too hard on Gagne during the arbitration hearing!"
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-04-06 19:04:47
101.   dsfan
93

Like I said, I love following prospects and realize that minor league stats can be predictive -- but I also accommodate the view that until you've done it in the majors, you haven't done anything. There are pretty strong question marks about each of those guys.

2006-04-06 19:06:20
102.   King of the Hobos
Lima gave up 4 runs in 5 innings today in AAA. Schmoll gave up 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning in relief of Lima. Needless to say, Norfolk didn't win
2006-04-06 19:07:05
103.   Uncle Miltie
Brandon Watson's godfather is Eric Davis. Davis is also Jordan Farmar's godfather. He is like the Shawn Kemp of godfathers.
2006-04-06 19:07:31
104.   dsfan
Sanchez four Ks in two innings, just struck out the side, up to 95 mph, trusting his offspeed stuff, too.
2006-04-06 19:11:54
105.   Uncle Miltie
I really like Fred Lewis. Is his arm really so weak that he can't play CF?
2006-04-06 19:13:04
106.   Fallout
96. Curtis Lowe
I dont understand all the "The Sky is Falling" talk.

If Kent and Drew go down, then I'll worry.

2006-04-06 19:13:25
107.   dsfan
Doesn't Fred Lewis swing a glass bat?
2006-04-06 19:14:45
108.   Bob Timmermann
Say goodnight Frank Robinson.
2006-04-06 19:14:46
109.   natepurcell
walking lewis isnt a good way to start a game.
2006-04-06 19:15:52
110.   natepurcell
its cool. billz strikes out ortmeier on a "high 90s" fb.
2006-04-06 19:16:22
111.   MartinBillingsley31
Without gagne, in my opinion the baez trade is looking unnecessary considering what we gave up.

Think about it, subract gagne from the bullpen, then nomar wasn't hitting the ball hard in spring training, which is making me wonder if he has lost his power, so our power consists of drew kent cruz period.
Our bench is pathetic.
Our starting pitching is average.

Its looking like baez might be the difference between 75 wins and 78 wins, not 84 wins and 87 wins.

2006-04-06 19:17:08
112.   Bob Timmermann
Watching Frank Robinson get angry (and also get screwed by the umpires) makes me happy. I will go to hell for such things.
2006-04-06 19:18:02
113.   Daniel Zappala
Remember that storm that hit LA earlier in the week? It finally got here to Utah and then stalled, so it snowed literally all day and we got nearly a foot of snow, on opening day for our minor league team. Thankfully, the Salt Lake Bees are opening on the road in Tucson.
2006-04-06 19:18:45
114.   natepurcell
no offense, but you are like a broken record MB.
2006-04-06 19:19:02
115.   Daniel Zappala
112 See your confessor and maybe you can get a relatively light sentence of purgatory.
2006-04-06 19:19:41
116.   Bob Timmermann
Keith Hernandez said when he started playing, players didn't charge the mound.

He has a very selective memory. There have been fights in baseball since ... forever.

2006-04-06 19:20:49
117.   Steve
108 - [cackle, cackle]
2006-04-06 19:20:55
118.   Bob Timmermann
112

I know someone who has a personal confessor.

2006-04-06 19:22:41
119.   Bob Timmermann
Six Nationals had been hit the last two games. One of them was AFTER the teams had been warned, but Sanchez wasn't ejected. Then Felix Rodriguez came in and hit Lo Duca.

He was ejected.

Justice is not always just.

2006-04-06 19:23:45
120.   MartinBillingsley31
114

Sorry, i was just giving the reason why i think the baez trade is now looking unnecessary, i guess i should have just said the baez trade was unnecessary in my opinion, without giving a reason why.

2006-04-06 19:31:48
121.   overkill94
114 I've been wanting to say that for a while too.

You can't bring up Nomar's ineffectiveness since the trade was made before spring training. Plus, it's questionable whether EJ or Tiffany will ever contribute to any wins in their career, so any contribution could be called a plus, especially if the team gets it together and makes a run at it this year.

2006-04-06 19:32:43
122.   Daniel Zappala
118 Can't you just find out when your favorite priest is giving confessions and show up at that time? Or do you mean the priest will make a house call?

Personally (and once upon a time), I found the idea of a face-to-face confession (rather than the behind-the-screen style they show in movies) rather uncomfortable.

2006-04-06 19:36:29
123.   natepurcell
guzman works the count to 3-2 but hits it back to the pitcher.

billingsley has gone 2 so far, 1 infield hit (should have been an error on aybar), 2bb, 2k.

2006-04-06 19:41:31
124.   trainwreck
What is the lineup for the 51's?
2006-04-06 19:42:28
125.   dsfan
Nate, are you watching the Vegas game? Why should it have been an error on Aybar? Radio commentary?
2006-04-06 19:43:45
126.   dsfan
Jon,

How do you get wind of those reports so quickly, such as the Gagne one?

You were ahead of ESPN, no?

2006-04-06 19:46:10
127.   Jon Weisman
I posted a Gameday link for the Vegas game below, so I don't think we need play by play.
2006-04-06 19:46:19
128.   natepurcell
re 125

radio commentary. it was a grounder to his right that bounced off his glove because he tried to backhand it.

51s lineup.
duncan
aybar
ethier
guzman
young
robles
martin
valdez
billingsley

there is a gameday available if you go to milb.com

2006-04-06 19:47:30
129.   natepurcell
billingsley hasnt given up a FB yet. thats how you succeed in vegas. good job chad.
2006-04-06 19:47:43
130.   King of the Hobos
124
Duncan CF
Aybar 3B
Ethier RF
Guzman 1B
Young LF
Robles 2B
Martin C
Valdez SS
Billingsley P
2006-04-06 19:48:53
131.   King of the Hobos
I really should have refreshed, as I was expecting nate would probably beat me if he hadn't left for the moment, so sorry about 130
2006-04-06 19:49:36
132.   D4P
Which number will be greater in 2006:

1. Gagne's saves
2. Nomar's homeruns

2006-04-06 19:49:47
133.   natepurcell
your lineup is better anyways king. you took the time to put their positions next to the name :)
2006-04-06 19:50:15
134.   Jon Weisman
126 - No, I didn't get advanced on this. MLB.com posted it.
2006-04-06 19:55:07
135.   jujibee
What happened to Laroche?
2006-04-06 19:56:02
136.   natepurcell
aybar starts off the vegas fireworks with a double, scores first LV run. yay.
2006-04-06 19:56:25
137.   natepurcell
re 135

laroche is starting the season in AA.

2006-04-06 19:58:28
138.   jujibee
That sucks. I was hoping to see him next week when the 51s battle the rivercats up here in Sac. At least we'll get to watch him play on southernguide.
2006-04-06 19:58:54
139.   Louis in SF
For those who were against the Bayez trade, I don't see your logic, especially now, Bayez is a proven closer and now he is going to have that role for the Dodgers this year and who knows after that.

What I don't understand is why bring up Saito, rather than bringing up Tiffany and say you are the man who will spot start but most likely give us 3 innings of quality relief.

Rick Sutcliff on opening day pointed out that Bob Welch came up pitching long relief and short relief, before he became a starter. This is what the Dodgers need now Bayez may not be Gagne, but he is a reasonable replacement, we have plenty of 1 inning wonders, Brazabon, Orsina etc, but what maybe more important are the bridge pitchers.

2006-04-06 19:59:30
140.   Vishal
[132] all nomar has to do is hit one, i think.
2006-04-06 20:00:08
141.   D4P
139
What do you mean by "proven closer"?
2006-04-06 20:00:16
142.   jujibee
Tiffany was traded to get Baez.
2006-04-06 20:00:56
143.   D4P
140
That order might be taller than it sounds.
2006-04-06 20:03:16
144.   ToyCannon
If all it took was skill to be a closer then David Riske, Arthur Rhodes, LaTroy Hawkins and countless other high skilled middle relief pitchers would not have failed when given the chance. The idea that you can take any high skilled pitcher and turn him into a closer is a myth just as clutch hitting is a myth. Some can do it, some can't. Baez has, the real question is can he still do it as his skills decline. Time will tell but I don't see how anyone can say the trade isn't more important now then when it was made. If Ned was going to trade for a closer today he'd be giving up a heck of a lot more then a single A pitcher and a twice failed prospect. You'd be seeing the real prospects being tossed to the wind. Kuo couldn't even get 3 outs without walking two guys and someone said they would be happy with him as the closer. I'd like to actually see him pitch a major league inning without incident one time at least before I annoint him as a closer.
2006-04-06 20:09:56
145.   Jon Weisman
Clearly, some relievers are better than others. The question is, do you want to limit your best reliever - whether it's Baez or whoever - to only pitching the ninth, when a key situation might come sooner. I say no.
2006-04-06 20:14:45
146.   Steve
The idea that Arthur Rhodes and LaTroy Hawkins are highly skilled pitchers is a myth.
2006-04-06 20:17:15
147.   sie0174
Quick question: How many Double letter rows are there in the reserved section? AA is the first row, and I know theres BB, is there a CC also?
2006-04-06 20:21:42
148.   natepurcell
dah, 2-run hr to fred lewis.
2006-04-06 20:22:24
149.   King of the Hobos
Billingsley got his first taste of vegas...a 2 run homer from the leadoff man after allowing a hit to the pitcher
2006-04-06 20:24:05
150.   trainwreck
144
Kuo pitched 5 innings last year and had 10 strikeouts. So Kuo has pitched an inning in the bigs.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-04-06 20:24:16
151.   natepurcell
radio guy said it didnt seem lewis got all of that.
2006-04-06 20:24:26
152.   ToyCannon
146
That is just because you don't understand what makes up a highly skilled pitchers toolset and it is easier for you to make pithy TJ Simers comments then to take the time to understand something that is beyond your scope.

I guess that will be my last comment for a week.

2006-04-06 20:26:00
153.   King of the Hobos
151 If the wind's blowing right, you don't need to get all of it. Billingsley has done fine tonight, it's not his fault the Dodgers are pitching him in Vegas.
2006-04-06 20:27:04
154.   Bob Timmermann
147

They've renumbered and releterred the rows.

What section are you sitting in? The bottom part of the reserved section shouldn't have double lettered rows.

The upper part does. And those sections all got distinct aisle numbers this year.

2006-04-06 20:27:57
155.   natepurcell
the 3ks are low. everything else i dont mind.
2006-04-06 20:30:33
156.   sie0174
Actually, I'm looking at for tickets for friday night's game on the ticket exchange right now. Found section 4RS, Row B tickets....should be good right? There are some tix that say 12RS, row BB...those are the ones im confused about.
2006-04-06 20:31:06
157.   King of the Hobos
At least the 51s decided to try to give Chad the win, even after the homer tied it. Men on the corners with Ethier up, one run in (Valdez, Duncan, and Alvarez have done the damage in this inning, no prospects)
2006-04-06 20:33:19
158.   dsfan
Toy Cannon,

I know this hurts your case, but I agree. Well said.

2006-04-06 20:34:05
159.   Steve
That is just because you don't understand what makes up a highly skilled pitchers toolset

I'm learning. Apparently, the first tool in any highly skilled pitcher's toolkit is an enormous WHIP.

2006-04-06 20:35:09
160.   dsfan
Nate,

So much for my hope that Aybar would be the leadoff man in Vegas. I believe that's the spot that's most conducive to his development. It's like last September did not exist.

2006-04-06 20:36:50
161.   sanchez101
They are just teeing off on Hennessey
2006-04-06 20:38:00
162.   natepurcell
leadoff and hitting 2nd isnt that much different. hes at the top of the order setting the table still.
2006-04-06 20:38:46
163.   natepurcell
They are just teeing off on Hennessey

and he only gets charged with 1ER. he leaves the game with an era of 1.93. lol

2006-04-06 20:39:43
164.   JeffShawCanClose
I have both Baez and Gagne in my fantasy league; is it yet safe to say that I can release the latter and pick someone else up? Who will be the new setup man? Yhency? Carter? Help!
2006-04-06 20:44:25
165.   Bob Timmermann
156

Section 12 is the part of the Reserved level ABOVE the concourse. Those rows have double letters.

12 is the first section like that just to the first base side of the stadium.

2006-04-06 20:44:43
166.   Andrew Shimmin
Baez had a career year, last year. It seems more likely luck than a break out, since his peripherals remained the same. Maybe he really is a poor man's Gagne (he'd have to have another breakout, this year, to match any of Gagne's big three; looks like we'll have a chance to find out), but I suspect he's a rich man's Paul Quantrill.
2006-04-06 20:49:08
167.   Andrew Shimmin
158- Can you explain what makes a closer special? Why it doesn't follow that a good closer is just a good relief pitcher who happens to be used in the way he is?

This is a perfectly earnest request; not that I'm above being glib, but if there's something to this that I can't see, I'm happy to have it shown to me.

2006-04-06 20:49:31
168.   Fallout
145. Jon Weisman

Saving your best one inning pitcher to pitch in the 9th doesn't make sense to me either. Maybe teams should have a closer for the 9th inning and a "terminator" for situations with runners on with no one out for innings 6,7 or 8. :)

2006-04-06 20:50:46
169.   natepurcell
martins looked pretty bad this game. 2ks is reallh unmartin like
2006-04-06 20:54:27
170.   Uncle Miltie
I love the A's announcers because they refuse to call the Angels the "LA Angels". Instead, they call them the "Angels of Anaheim".
2006-04-06 20:54:39
171.   Jon Weisman
168 - We call them "smokejumpers."
2006-04-06 21:05:27
172.   Fallout
171. Jon Weisman

I had to google that one.

smokejumpers -- their job is to attack small wildland fires in remote areas before they grow too large.

Appropriate name but it doesn't roll off the tongue very well.

2006-04-06 21:10:30
173.   natepurcell
great AB by ethier. falling behind to a big lefty 0-2, battles back to 3-2 and on the 11th pitch, lines a single into CF.
2006-04-06 21:12:56
174.   MollyKnight
This is so upseting. Really. I just have nothing to say.
2006-04-06 21:17:17
175.   Bob Timmermann
From CBS Sportsline:
Dodgers trainer Stan Johnston said on a conference call Thursday night there was no immediate timetable for the return of Gagne, who saved 152 games from 2002-04 and was a near-unanimous winner of the NL Cy Young Award in 2003.

"I wouldn't say that," Johnston replied when asked if Gagne might miss the entire season. "After the surgeons get finished, there will be a timetable."

2006-04-06 21:19:42
176.   Louis in SF
141, my definition of a proven closer is Bayez in that he has done it with a reasonable amount of success-41 saves last year. To john's point about using your best pitcher even if a closer at the most crucial time, is an argument that makes much sense, but sadley is not used by most teams.

My point is that given the structure of the exisitng team and the reserves at Las Vegas and the "real politic" of our current management and major league baseball-I think it makes the most sense to bring up the best arm who can contribute the most innings. Brining up just another releaver to replace one-doesn't make sense to me.

2006-04-06 21:24:31
177.   Bob Timmermann
Louis,
I'm not being critical, but are you deliberately misspelling Baez?
2006-04-06 21:28:01
178.   natepurcell
kobes had like a million turnovers. he needs to stop trying to go one on one
2006-04-06 21:32:45
179.   Daniel Zappala
178 Yahoo's box score says he has 2.
2006-04-06 21:35:11
180.   oldbear
And people scoffed at me picking the Padres to win the division

You arent the only one. I picked them too.

Bradley and Gagne were the two players I most looked forward to seeing play the last few years. Playoffs or not, this team will not have swagger.

Its boring cheering for players with little upside whom arent good enough currently to be of any relevance in making the playoffs.

according to henson, saito will be called up

From Gagne to Saito.

Everything that was worth rooting for the last few years, has basically just left in one winter.

Wake me in 3 years.

2006-04-06 21:36:19
181.   dzzrtRatt
167 I part company with many on this site in believing there is a difference between a "closer" and a merely good relief pitcher that has to do with a combination of physical and extra-physical skills. A few factors that make one a closer:

-Confidence in more than one pitch.
-Confidence in situations where the margin for error is minuscule.
-The ability to intimidate batters, and make them feel their chances of success are slight, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
-A certain theatrical ability, which produces favorable changes in the level of emotion among the fans. The "10th man" as an incremental factor only matters occasionally, but they way fans respond to the arrival of a notably successful closer is one of those moments.

I think the simple reason relief pitchers with these characteristics have evolved into one-inning "closers" was probably to allow them to be used more frequently during the season, since their effect on game outcomes was so positive. And for all the discussion of "smokejumpers," the fact is the ninth inning is often the most decisive inning.

The downside, however, is that a team's best relief pitcher begins to look at the 9th inning save as a kind of career entitlement, and that's dumb. Not all 9th innings are created equally. It's true that in some games, and against some teams, it might be better to use that pitcher against the 3-4-5 part of the lineup late in a game, regardless of which inning. Conversely, holding a three run lead against a lousy team with the bottom of the order coming to bat in the 9th shouldn't count in the save statistics.

But all in all, I think the closer is no Easter Bunny, he's real. Gagne was a classic. I just don't know enough about Baez to be able to say whether he could fill that role even half as well as Gagne did. However, I liked the way he pitched Tuesday night, so I'll choose for now to be hopeful that while Gagne recuperates, Baez will make good.

2006-04-06 21:37:04
182.   Fallout
177. Bob Timmermann

y Bobb Timerman did you ask?

2006-04-06 21:37:21
183.   Louis in SF
Bob, thank you for the correction, I think my Passover logistics are getting the best of me-if we could I would love to have spell check..Please Jon don't ban me after that statement, in an earlier life I was a radio journalist and my sister still is very much involved in the trade
2006-04-06 21:39:12
184.   Fallout
Are MartinBillingsley31 and oldbear related?
2006-04-06 21:41:19
185.   natepurcell
Are MartinBillingsley31 and oldbear related?

i dont think so, but their opinions do seem to intertwine with one another.

2006-04-06 21:45:53
186.   Bob Timmermann
183
Louis,
Some people (like me) make deliberate misspelling to make a joke and I thought I was missing out.

Since Vin Scully pronounces Baez's first name as "Danny", that may be what we go with, but I still think that in Cuba, the "s" in Danys wasn't silent.

2006-04-06 21:48:53
187.   ScoobyGoo
Baez's first name is actually Denis, and his last name is actually Gonzalez...
2006-04-06 21:50:40
188.   Andrew Shimmin
181- So, there is such a thing as a closer, but save counts are the way to find one. Of your four criteria, it seems like one and three would be universal to good pitchers. Two and four are different; intangible, right? Was there anything about Gagne, in 2001, that made him look like he had either?

Baez's saves/blown saves over the last three years:

2003: 25/10
2004: 30/3
2005: 41/8

Over his career, Baez has blown about 20% of his total Save Opportunities.

2006-04-06 21:51:15
189.   Bob Timmermann
Bbref says "Denis Baez Gonzalez"
Dodgers.com says "Danys Joseph Baez"

I need to get a look at his passport sometime.

2006-04-06 21:52:38
190.   Andrew Shimmin
Save counts ARE NOT the way to find one. I recast the sentence, but forgot that I'd changed the. . .Yeah, never mind. Sorry.
2006-04-06 21:52:45
191.   natepurcell
the AP story has been updated. this is disturbing.

Johnston said Gagne told him Wednesday he had been pitching in pain all spring

why not let the club know sooner gagne? quit trying to be mr. tough guy and try and get healthy.

2006-04-06 21:54:25
192.   D4P
188
I think I've asked about this before, but does anyone know where to find stats on save percentage? It would be nice to know what the average is, and what a "good" percentage is.
2006-04-06 21:54:41
193.   Bob Timmermann
Some Spanish language sites that have pages from before the time Baez defected have his name as "Denis Baez".

So, he must have made some changes when he changed citizenship. I believe he's a Costa Rican citizen. That's where he went after he defected.

2006-04-06 21:57:00
194.   Fallout
188. Andrew Shimmin
Over his career, Baez has blown about 20% of his total Save Opportunities.

That ain't good.

2006-04-06 21:57:47
195.   oldbear
Actually, I agree with pretty much everything Miltie, MB31, GoBears, D4P, and BigCPA post.

This team is being ran backwards, and the only ones that seem to be 100% still optimistic are those that take Baseball America's word as the gospel that there are superstars in the minor leagues.

Nevermind the Dodgers mess up the youngsters before they even get here.

--Moving Broxton
==Moving Guzman
--Moving Denker

Even the minor league stuff is messed up.

If one were to not be optimistic about the minor leaguers, what from the 25-man roster would be worth watching? They've cut, traded, or demoted every high upside young player.

Honestly, its ridiculous.

You can only look the other way for so long.

2006-04-06 21:58:15
196.   Bob Timmermann
To be precise, the last name is Báez.
2006-04-06 22:01:17
197.   ScoobyGoo
LOL Joseph..there is no way a Cuban is named Joseph...Josef perhaps?

When people argue about stuff about if a team should or shouldn't have a closer..it makes me wonder about every other concept that's been ingrained to us by every team..

With so many offensive statistics these days I think most people have figured out that the traditional roles are useless...all you need are players that get on base or that bring them home..preferably with all hitters doing both...pitching however has so many different roles that it gets ridiculous..

Why have a 5man rotation if there's a pitcher that can throw 400 innings a season like back in the day? Or maybe you expand the micromanaging of a single game towards a whole season..you have your "closer" starter pitching once or twice in a big series against a rival/good team and use your crapper starters (Tomko comes to mind) against your Rockies/Nats...

I'm not saying that would work..it would probably fail miserably..but there are enough ridiculous ideas that anyone can come up with that I really have no idea what does or doesn't work in baseball..you could fill your staff with a bunch of 3 inning pitchers and who knows that would work too..i've been rambling for much too long...

2006-04-06 22:02:01
198.   natepurcell
This team is being ran backwards, and the only ones that seem to be 100% still optimistic are those that take Baseball America's word as the gospel that there are superstars in the minor leagues.

thats an uncalled for jab.

2006-04-06 22:02:10
199.   Sam DC
Well, I don't know about the rest of you, but little things like my life and my job are making it rather hard to keep up with in-season Dodger Thoughts and are just in general interfering with my desire to park on the internet all day and watch and talk about baseball. Alas.

Thought I would pass along that in the Post article about tonight's Nationals' game the writer calls both Pedro and Guillen "drama queens." The two teams next meet at the Nationals' home opener; surely tonight's brawl ought to see a few thousand tickets, no?

It's just sad about Gagne. When he was so locked in a couple of years ago, he was really something amazing to watch. It's pretty hard to imagine he'll ever get there again at this point.

2006-04-06 22:02:31
200.   King of the Hobos
If Cleveland had used Betancourt exclusively in save situations, and used Wickman otherwise in close situations, would they have been nearly as successful? Betancourt was clearly their best reliever and took care of all the close situations that didn't involve a "narrow" lead in the 9th inning. Wickman was an above average reliever with a bit of a lucky ERA, who took care of the 3 run saves and the few truly tough saves. Wickamn was used in 14 games where he didn't have a save opportunity, compared to the likes of Mariano and Lidge, who had 24 games which they played in without a save situation. I don't have a rundown of the game situations, but I'm guessing Betancourt had much tougher situations than Wickman did on average.

It seems to me this is the best set up, don't use your best reliever as the closer, which I believe is essentially what Jon has said previously. Now that I think about it, this doesn't really seem to aid the argument of the importance of a closer, and the ability to close, but I'll post it anyways.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-04-06 22:04:36
201.   Fallout
195. oldbear
You can only look the other way for so long.

lol So, you are looking down?

2006-04-06 22:04:49
202.   Steve
When people argue about stuff about if a team should or shouldn't have a closer..it makes me wonder about every other concept that's been ingrained to us by every team

And that's the sweet spot.

2006-04-06 22:05:55
203.   D4P
195,198
I'm pretty sure Nate is Tommy Lasorda's grandson.
2006-04-06 22:07:00
204.   King of the Hobos
197 If there's a Cuban named Leslie Anderson, then why not Joseph? It's not like there's never been a communist named Joseph.

Although I'm still amused over Anderson's name, he stuck out like a sore thumb on Cuba's WBC roster

2006-04-06 22:08:53
205.   ScoobyGoo
It's not that there's a problem with Joseph, its just that..well..Denis Joseph Baez Gonzalez...something looks out of place..
2006-04-06 22:10:22
206.   Louis in SF
Bob, appreciate your thoughts on my spelling, but is anyone on my wave length regarding the more pressing issue of why we are bringing up a pitcher who most think is average at best, replacing a pitcher who however, miss used was exceptional, when we could be bringing up a pitcher who in Billingsly everyone seems to think has the most potential?
2006-04-06 22:11:28
207.   Sam DC
Is Derek Lowe still scheduled to start on Sunday?
2006-04-06 22:14:41
208.   Bob Timmermann
Tomko Friday, Lowe Saturday, Penny Sunday.
2006-04-06 22:17:06
209.   Steve
Sam breathes a sigh of relief.
2006-04-06 22:17:32
210.   natepurcell
so... loss, loss, win?

im assuming the sat game is during the day.

2006-04-06 22:20:40
211.   Andrew Shimmin
It'd be relatively easy to make a Save% and then run a regression to find out what's good, but I'm not sure it'd be worth it. The trouble with Saves, as dzzrtRatt (not alone, but most recently) pointed out is that they don't mean anything specific, so it's like trying to figure out if a player is good using only his BA. Unless dzzrtRatt is also right that there's more to closing than meets the eye. In which case it might be an indication of an intangible quality?

206- My question is why they're bothering to bring up another pitcher, when Cody Ross has already gotten two PH appearences.

2006-04-06 22:20:49
212.   GIDP
from John Sickels 2006 predictions:
Biggest One-Month Surprise: Brett Tomko goes 4-0, 1.25 in April and wins Pitcher of the Month award.

Don't shoot the messenger.

2006-04-06 22:22:35
213.   natepurcell
holy cow kobe...
2006-04-06 22:24:01
214.   D4P
211
You may be right, though I think Save % should at least be mentioned anytime # of saves is mentioned. I mean, is a guy who saves 40 out of 50 games a better "closer" than a guy who saves 20 out of 20?
2006-04-06 22:24:20
215.   Sam DC
That really is such great news.
2006-04-06 22:24:56
216.   dzzrtRatt
Why are they bringing up a pitcher at all? Don't we have too many already? We have a replacement for Gagne in Baez. By design, Baez was Gagne-in-waiting, so by definition he didn't need to be replaced. I think with all the Gagne-grieviing, Neddy panicked and his brain cramped with that move.
2006-04-06 22:25:48
217.   oldbear
I didnt mean that as a personal shot at you Nate. I mean the "minor leaguers will save us all" attitude that alot of Dodger fans have. It just eerily reminds me of 2003 when all everyone could talk about was how Edwin Jackson/Greg Miller were gonna be the next Drysdale/Koufax, all the while ignoring what was going on at the MLB level.

Its a bleak time when everything about an organization goes against your core beliefs about what makes a team win. I find myself at odds with the Dodgers.

2006-04-06 22:27:51
218.   MartinBillingsley31
195

Actually, I agree with pretty much everything Miltie, MB31, GoBears, D4P, and BigCPA post.

Thanks oldbear, i got an uncalled for jab from nate, then a follow up by overkill94.
Its good to see someone appreciates my posts.
Maybe i'll take some time off from this site.

2006-04-06 22:33:57
219.   natepurcell
will Lawler's Law prevail tonight? lakers first one to 100...
2006-04-06 22:34:23
220.   Steve
D4P you've come a long way when Oldbear agrees with everything you say. Now all you have to do is stop watching baseball and make all of your baseball judgments based on the game with the spinning disks, and you'll be just like the rest of us.
2006-04-06 22:37:03
221.   D4P
220
That's the first time anyone has ever said anything like that about me. I was shocked. For one thing, I don't even know what I'm talking about most of the time...
2006-04-06 22:38:40
222.   Strike4
When the home team is ready to start the top of the sixth tied or with a small lead, how does the manager determine his most critical time to use his best reliever? We only know the most critical time after the game is over. I would hold him until the estimated final 25 or so pitches to "close" the game.
2006-04-06 22:46:17
223.   Andrew Shimmin
Using the top save getters from last year:

Player/ Career Blown Save%

Chad Cordero/12.7
Bob Wickman/21.2%
K-Rod/ 21.1%
Trevor Hoffman/10.5%
Mariano Rivera/12.1%
Joe Nathan/12%
Brad Lidge/14.9%
Danys Baez/18.9%
Todd Jones/21.0%
Jason Isringhausen/13.9%
Derrick Turnbow/08.7%

Maybe if I tied it to something, instead of just throwing it out there, there would be a way to tell if it correlated to anything. Just for fun:

Gagne/3.6%

2006-04-06 22:46:21
224.   natepurcell
Carmelo with the dagger!
2006-04-06 22:49:23
225.   regfairfield
Late, and horn tooting, but I did some research into our friend Takashi.

http://dodgermath.com/?p=262

2006-04-06 22:49:42
226.   trainwreck
Not Luke Walton! Anybody but him.
2006-04-06 22:50:49
227.   Eric L
221 Most of us don't know what we are talking about, but we do a good job of pretending like we do.

222 I'll pretend to know what I'm talking about right now (just throwing it out there).

I think the idea would be more like this - pitcher A (for argument, the starter) walks a couple of guys, the heart of the order is coming up, etc. You have a thin lead or the game is still within reach in the later innings.

Of course, someone can argue the later innings part. Heck, there might even be a more crucial part of the game later on. But at that moment, it's the most important pitching "moment" of the game.

2006-04-06 22:51:13
228.   Bob Timmermann
Gagne was the only one in the bunch that never served time as a setup man.
2006-04-06 22:51:39
229.   D4P
223
I'm not so concerned with whether it correlates with anything as whether or not it helps tell more than just # of saves alone. Looking at those figures, I see that Baez blows quite a few saves. Should I be impressed with his high number of saves if he also has a high number of blown saves? Or, should I be more impressed with a guy who has fewer saves, but a higher save percentage?
2006-04-06 22:51:46
230.   natepurcell
darn. not really a good day for my respective sports teams.
2006-04-06 22:52:57
231.   Andrew Shimmin
I'm watching Crash. It's unpleasant.
2006-04-06 22:53:00
232.   trainwreck
230
You still got Budinger.
2006-04-06 22:58:26
233.   natepurcell
thats true trainwreck. i still have the great white hope and national championship aspirations for the wildcats next year.

and... i still have my prospects....(even though i know 3/4ths of them will fail to live up to expectations)

2006-04-06 22:58:46
234.   Bob Timmermann
231
I could have warned you about that.

I've seen Yokohama pitch a bunch of times and according to my scorebooks, Saito never pitched in one. Nor did Saitoh!

2006-04-06 23:01:50
235.   D4P
I guess what I'm trying to say about the "Save" stat is that it would seemingly be more meaningful if it were a ratio than just a count. For example, how meaningful is it to talk about the number of earned runs a pitcher gave up last year? If I were to say "Pitcher X gave up 50 runs last year," you would have no idea whether that was good or bad unless you also knew how many innings that pitcher pitched. Thus, we use ERA rather than just # of ERs.

I see Saves the same way. How can I know whether 30 saves is good or bad unless I also know how many opportunities it took to get those 30 saves? I feel confident saying that every pitcher in the league could have 30 saves if given enough opportunities. Some might only need 30 opportunities to get 30 saves, while others might need all 162 games. But just knowing that they got to 30 doesn't mean much unless we know how many opportunities it took to get there.

All that being said, I don't mean to imply that getting to 30 saves (or even getting to one save) is necessarily any kind of accomplishment.

2006-04-06 23:02:52
236.   Andrew Shimmin
234- You did; possibly in exactly those words. But I figured I was probably much hipper than you. 8^) Guess not.
2006-04-06 23:03:46
237.   D4P
236
Much hipper than a guy who has a collection of "scorebooks"...?
2006-04-06 23:07:55
238.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.

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