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The Aybar-for-Izturis Trade
2006-07-29 09:30
Okay, something's nagging at me a little bit about Friday's trade. And it's not the news that the Dodgers are paying the remainder of Danys Baez's contract, though I suppose that's kind of annoying. In Willy Aybar, the Dodgers got rid of a player who displayed a nice grasp of the strike zone (he walked about once every six at-bats, with fewer strikeouts than walks) and an excellent doubles rate (20 doubles in his first 214 major-league at-bats, projecting to roughly 50 for a full season) for an older player (how much older, we're not exactly sure) whose principal advantage, at least for now, is home run power. There are mixed reports on both players' defense. It's not that Wilson Betemit's nine home runs in 199 at-bats this season don't matter to me, but do they outweigh the points against him? I'm splitting hairs a little bit. The trade succeeds in boosting the Dodgers' thin hopes for this year without sacrificing the future in any significant way - in fact, it may help the future as well. The worst possibility is that in a few years, we learn that Aybar is the superior talent. But I woke up this morning feeling a little sad about how much the Dodgers focused on what Aybar lacked instead of what he offered. A couple days ago, when I pointed out the Baseball Prospectus study that Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee each represented just a one-win improvement for the remainder of the season if either replaced Kenny Lofton, I have to admit that it puzzled me. You can imagine Soriano coming in here and hitting a three-run homer that gives the Dodgers a victory - is the idea that putting that aside, Soriano and Lofton would be equal? And then you think about it. Baseball's a tradeoff. On another hypothetical night, Soriano would go 0 for 4 when Lofton might get two hits and stolen base. It goes back and forth like that over 60 games, and somehow the differences minimize. Soriano's still better, but he's not better every game. So I think about how Aybar was benched so that Cesar Izturis could play. Izturis is without a doubt the more spectacular fielder. But in many games, Aybar would make all the plays at third base that Izturis would make. And yes, in a few games, Aybar would make more plays than Izturis, because Izturis isn't perfect. In the end, Izturis comes out ahead. But when you have the reptuation of being a better fielder, people tend to focus on the plays you make and forgive the plays you don't. For Aybar, it was the opposite. The differences get blown out of proportion - just like the differences between Soriano and Lofton, which is why you don't break First Prospect Bank to get Soriano. Meanwhile, at his worst, Aybar hit home runs more often than Izturis, who celebrates them like birthdays. In fact, there isn't a single aspect of using the bat in which Aybar, at age 23, isn't already superior to the 26-year-old Izturis - and that factors in Aybar's summer slump. You don't know offensive slumps until you've seen Izturis. Again, I get what Friday's trade was about. It was an attempt to balance prayers for 2006 with hopes for the future. I'm not complaining about that. But another underlying truth about the trade - unless other moves are made - is that it was a final exchange of Aybar for Izturis. Given that Izturis was contributing almost nothing toward the team's current hopes, and that he realistically has no future with the Dodgers - as soon as Jeff Kent returns, Izturis is supposed to go to the bench if he hasn't already been traded - this is the trade that's bugging me. And I don't even have the raging dislike for Izturis that some others have. I love his glove, and I'm dispassionately bored by his bat. He is who he is. A great-fielding No. 8 hitter. Just like the great-fielding 22-year-old the Dodgers have at AA Jacksonville, Chin-Lung Hu. I don't know if Atlanta would have taken Izturis instead of Aybar, though it does appear that their primary goal was Baez and so the second player in the trade could have been either infielder. I also don't know if Izturis will yield a bigger prize in a few days or months. All I can say is that as I write this, I'd rather Aybar were still in the Dodger organization, for all his flaws, even if he were at AAA, than Izturis. * * * Update: James Loney has been recalled from Las Vegas, according to Inside the Dodgers. Techincally, Loney takes Aybar's spot. Betemit will be held off the active roster until Sunday, at which point another roster opening will have to be made available. Perhaps that will be Izturis? Or someone else whose time as a Dodger has expired? Olmedo Saenz got hit by two pitches Friday - at least one painfully - so that could be a factor as well. * * *
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Nice to see Loney back
So that's Nomar to the DL, or the dumping of Jose Cruz.
O'Connor is a lefty, so that makes me wonder if Loney still gets the start, as well as whether Repko gets the start in CF.
About Aybar-Betemit, I pretty much said what I felt about it in last night's thread, but it does appear that the Dodgers were trading Baez to the Braves and the Braves required a utility infielder in return to replace him. I don't think the Dodgers were as down on Aybar as it may appear but they'd obviously soured on him as a starter a little.
I do think when you see Betemit play for LA you will see a better all around player than Aybar.
I need breakfast.
Wow, I can't believe it - the game is on Fox here in SF today. Not that they usually do well on Fox telecasts, but hope springs eternal.
Amen to that, jon.
Techincally, Loney takes Aybar's spot. Betemit will be held off the active roster until Sunday, at which point another roster opening will have to be made available. Perhaps that will be Izturis? Or someone else whose time as a Dodger has expired?
That's what i brought up at the end of the last thread.
I think izturis will be out the door to activate betemit, then loney sent down when kent returns (unless another position player is dealt with izturis).
What i would like to know is where does betemit fit in our long term plans:
2b?, what about kent/dewitt?
3b?, what about laroche?
ss?, what about furcal? (this is where i'd like betemit)
Maybe 3b the rest of this season, utility next season assuming kent 2b furcal ss laroche 3b, 2b in 2008 since kent will be gone, then ss in 2009 when furcal is gone and dewitt is ready for 2b.
Also interesting to read the comments about the trade on the MLB Trade Rumors blog:
http://tinyurl.com/rlvm8
Izzy is a shortstop masquerading in any other position he plays. And while his salary is in line for a defensive plus shortstop, there is no such thing as a defense first third basemen.
Furcal, SS
Repko, CF
Drew, RF
Saenz, 1B
Ethier, LF
Martin, C
Izturis, 3B
Martinez, 2B
Lowe, P
Laroche > betemit at 3b
Kent then dewitt > betemit at 2b
Betemit > furcal at ss, plus you dump furcal's contract.
But right now this season anyone is better than izturis at 3b, therefore this season betemit is an upgrade no matter what.
But this season is over as far as i'm concerned.
Salomon Torres, who been mentioned in trade rumors with the Giants, doesn't want to go back to San Francisco.
"If I could beg, I would beg. Send me where you want, but not to San Francisco," he said. Torres added that he hated his last two years with the Giants, and he also doesn't want to again play for Felipe Alou, who managed him while with the Expos in 1997. "By far, that's the worst time I had in my career," Torres said. "It prompted my (temporary) retirement. He didn't treat me the way I felt he should have been treating me. ... He never went straight to me and told me what was going on, and I resent him for that."
he's only gonna be here for a little bit, unless Nomar will go on the D.L. or something.
21 "I really doubt management will let Izzy go to triple-A (they love his glove)" -
I don't think Izturis can be sent down to AAA unless it's for an injury rehab, no? He's probably well out of options as a veteran.
Definitely will be an interesting couple more days. I just hope it's interesting because the Dodgers win more than anything else.
Now first and third with two outs.
One thing that I'm not sure has been mentioned is that by obtaining Betimit we block the Pads from getting him. I think they need a 3b as much as we did.
also, and this is pure speculation on my part, I wonder why izturis isn't mentioned in any possible deals to Toronto. He would be no worse offensively than Adams or McDonald and with GBers like Halladay, AJB, and Janssen, he would be a huge upgrade defensively.
Oh yeah, and I HATE FOX!!!
Martin c
Drew rf
Nomar 1b
Ethier lf
Kent 2b
Kemp cf
Laroche 3b
Betemit ss
Bench: Saenz, guzman, loney, repko, backup catcher, a cheap guy
Looks good to me.
Get some pitching with the money comin off the books.
Exactly.
This trade would have been better if Izturis was going to Atlanta instead of Aybar. The Dodgers gave up a guy that knows the K zone, for a hacker. Hopefully the hacker is having a legit spike in HRs and can play 2b. If not, all this trade accomplished was taking away the dilemma of offering Baez arbitration.
Now somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but if he's traded, doesn't that mean that he can demand a trade from his new club at the end of the season? (Or does he have the right to opt out of his contract?) I imagine that would make him quite untradeable, or at least would give him serious veto power over any deal.
I doubt very much that Furcal gets dealt anywhere.
Saying Betemit>Izturis would need a good bit of actual proving.
If we trade Iz, which isn't ness. bad, we don't need to undermine his value with venom. He is among the best D ss's available, should get a good player straight up.
In otherwords, I think it would be the height of stupidity to make a trade that undervalues him, just to save a few people irritation.
I'd take Jason Frasor back for Izzy. He's probably the best of the big-league ready pitchers they have.
I'd be afraid what the add-on's would be in such a trade. Baltimore would certainly want pitching with Furcal, or cash to supplement his salary (making Tejada's reasonable contract not so reasonable anymore).
I think Tejada rumors mostly center around the Astros and Angels right now. I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to be in on that action, most likely.
Btw, I wouldn't be averse to a Frasor for Izturis trade. Did we send them Frasor in the Jayson Werth trade or was thath another one?
Figgins has 10 outfield putouts in 5 innings, easily on the way to breaking the record of 12.
If the Dodgers are paying for Baez, I for sure would have wanted a A or AA arm from Atlanta to be added to the deal that could project into the Dodger bullpen in the future.
Count me as one who likes Izzy at shortstop. The really bad move I think Ned made this past offseason was signing Furcal for 13 million. Izzy at 3 would leave at lot more room to pay for what the Dodgers have needed for the past few years: starting pitching.
Stan from Tacoma
Izzy at 2B improves this pitching staff, which needs all the help it can get.
Full-time SS.
who cares...it gets rid of the guy and gives us 3 mill for next year.
You know, this is one Ned trade I wasn't going to rail...then I read we're paying ALL of Baez's contract. Ugh. There's always some little detail that feels like we're getting backhanded.
Agree, but the mob has spoken.
his market value is never going to go up. Izzy is Izzy...everyone knows what he brings. Might as well cash in and see if someone team is willing to give us ANYTHING back so we have his contract off the books.
What?
Izzy at 2B improves this pitching staff,
I don't subscribe to that philosophy, that defense helps pitching, and on top of that izturis can't hit the side of a barn.
Sorry for being straight forward but i've been waiting for izturis to get traded for many years, so many years that i can't remember how many years.
Tell that to Brandon Webb's ERA since they acquired Orlando Hudson's GG 2nd base glove
Exactly, i don't buy into veterans increasing their trade value, they are veterans you know what they have done in the past.
Prospects on the otherhand can increase their trade value.
eh.
Meaning if you need "cesar i'm god on defense izturis" instead of a regular defensive shortstop then you might not be a very good pitcher.
Are there any numbers you can show us that say Orlando Hudson is responsible for Webb's low ERA?
I don't think another million bucks or so is gonna kill us
Im talking about next year. If we're paying this guy 3 mill next year to be a utility player then something is wrong. Would we be saying we should keep Royce Clayton for 3 mill next year? No...and they're essentially the same player.
It's a shame those undesirables aren't as intellectually honest as you and I are, isn't it?
There isn't any true evidence that Hudson has helped, but in the fantasy world Webb was a breakout candidate due to the fact that an improved defensive infield would be huge for his extreme groundball tendencies. I'm not saying great infield defense will help all pitchers that much, but it only makes sense that having a fielder who gets to more balls - whether it be better outfielders for a flyball pitcher or better infielders for a sinkerballer - will be beneficial to the starting pitcher.
His great year is due to a slashed walk rate mostly (1.57 BB/9, easily the best of his career so far) -- his OAV is .254, right in line with 2005 (.265) and 2004 (.248).
Of course you could make the argument that having O-Dawg behind him gives him more confidence to simply pound the strike zone and let the batter try to hit it...
the problem I have is that it was phrased as if Hudson is responsible for Webb's success. Does he help? Sure. But is it to a degree that's even noticeable? probably not.
Webb's struck out 121 batters this year. Meanwhile he's only walked 28 and only given up 11 HR. That doesn't have much to do with Orlando Hudson.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Hudson is an amazing defender. He is God-like with the glove. He is so far ahead of other players defensively at his position that they should just hand him the gold glove if he plays 120 games.
I hope that Loney being called up means that he won't be traded.
Nate can you please kidnap Greg Miller and Delwyn Young? I don't want them being traded for Greg Maddux!
how does this somehow justify paying Izturis?
We weren't going to ditch Odalis no matter what without paying for some of his deal.
As far as Baez, I can't believe we're paying it but at least it's only for this year.
Meanwhile, Izturis is on the hook for 3 mill next year. For the life of me I can't see why this guy gets such a pass around here. He's a utility infielder/defensive replacement. That's what he is. Yet everyone seems to think he's so valuable. Trade him, and use that 3 mill towards Zito or Schmidt.
There are possibly times when the DT commenting community could have an influence on front-office thinking. But the crediblity of commments laced with venom is automatically destroyed, regardless of their merits.
Especially when what is supposed to be logic is laced with unprovable biases of its own. The best/worst example is the idea that good defense doesn't help pitching, e.g. has no effect on runs scored by the opposition. Someone who does baseball for a living immediately moves you to the children's table when you say things like that, and everything good you bring to the discussion will be ignored.
From listening to everyone here, the more accurate statement is: "No statistical model yet exists to reliably quantify the impact of good defense. So we don't know."
The fact that you can't measure it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It means you need a new instrument of measurement.
no disrespect but we're paying a guy 13,000,000.00 & he seems totally cluess to what his job is!. You know the guy that swings for the fences & makes a ton of errors.
At least on our payroll.
That's not what i meant.
I think i've made myself clear about what i think of defense many times here, and i don't think defense is irrelevant as you put it.
Better defense = more balls caught = less hits = lower ERA.
Really? So did the Tigers staff's K-rate, did they spend the offseason getting the best shamrocks and rabbit's feet money can buy?
I'm guilty of being a bad commenter but it's only because I'm very passionate (sp?) I totally see & respect you're point.
we're not many teams with a moderate payroll. There is no place for him now with Betemit here.
His trade value should be treated accordingly.
how much trade value is there for a guy who can't hit? Honestly, I disagree with you because I don't think he'd start on most teams. His trade value lies in simply getting his contract off the books. He has no place here, no need to keep him. Trade him for a mid level prospect.
I mean, how is Izturis any different from JT Snow? Neither can hit, both can field great. Yet JT Snow is a defensive replacement but everyone around here thinks Izturis is the cat's meow. Classic example of fans over-valuing their own players.
I actually don't see you're point here because Izzy plays a premium position were as J.T. plays first base, again I don't see you're point.
please explain to me how SS is more "premium" than first base.
well if Furcal could aim the ball better Nomar wouldn't have to save him have the time, I don't consider 1st & SS the same type postion sorry.
and thank you Dodgers for playing firestorm...(ugh)
I don't buy that you can just throw anyone at first base.
I still haven't seen one person successfully justify keeping Izturis.
There's no place for him on this team
He's a utility infielders making 3 mill
He can't hit water if he jumped out of a boat.
If you guys are dying to have someone that can't hit but is great defensively then we might as well just bring up Hu...at least he only costs the league minimum.
BOOYAH indeed.
You said it.
Wow. You might pull a hamstring from stretching your side of the argument.
Okay, you can't throw anyone at first, but you could put anyone who's even decent at any other position, and they'd be a good first baseman. Why do you think teams stash their immobile power hitters there? It minimizes the damage they can do.
Izzy has major pop (did you see he's blast yesterday)
Most people just don't want to give Izturis away because there's at least some market for him. Toronto would be a great fit because they already have a good enough offense that putting Izzy in the 9-hole wouldn't kill them.
Runs Gloved In. :)
I thought Betemit was 26?
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love it.
Lowe - 51 through 2
O'Connor - 27 through 1
I went to his game about 3 weeks ago, & he really wasn't on his game.
That's my whole argument.
And how much more important is izturis god like defense with no hitting over a player with good or average defense with way better hitting ?
when can get .500 pitchers for 2 years at 4.5 million per? (Tomko)
I like it.
I'm not sure we have someone with average defense who is a WAY better hitter.
But I don't really disagree with you that much.
I'd at least wait to see if he can settle down in the third.
That wasn't a very good bunt
We should be blaming Martinez for not running on that play.
lol.
Stop. Just stop. Stop thinking that, stop saying that, stop believing that. Players go to the team that offers them the most money over the most years. Union rules.
bunt better (did you see that week bunt attempt)
there is a fine line between hope and fantasyland.
I'm not seeing why Lowe is taking the blame when that would have been a fine bunt if Ramon Martinez wouldn't have stopped running.
yeah that was another thing. your right.
Tuesday August 1
Odalis Perez vs Mark Buehrle
Odalis' first start as a Royal
Aybar's peripherals showed him to be a better hitter than izturis. Also, his "ineptness" on defense was overhyped. There is no reason Izturis should play ahead of him.
Izturis's bat is not worth having in the lineup just for one or two nice plays every three games or so.
Will he get through 5 innings on less than 120 pitches?
"What!"
"Just kidding. But give me the ball. You're pretty crappy out there today."
IMO, he just dons't hold runners well. he's like 6'5.
Furcal 732 ops
Lofton 726 ops
So now our starting catcher (martin) and our starting ss (furcal) are both opsing higher than our starting cf (lofton) and our starting 3b (izturis).
That right there shows how bad lofton and izturis are.
There is no reason that your ss and catcher should be opsing higher than your cf and 3b.
I swear, you really have to feel for the situation Ned was brought into. All the nonsense contracts he inherited.....Izzy, Odalis, Drew, Lowe, Gagne. How can you win with that?
And don't forget Kim Ng plays GM for a week and lands us Jose Cruz. Thank God we're stuck with Cruz for only this season.
I see that shift against Bonds and Ortiz but with runners on base, is it a wise move?
If Burnett got 5/55 mil, Zito's getting 5/75 mil. I don't care if we trade for him, but that's what he's going to get on the market. Be prepared for that.
Buehrle? right.
I agree, depodesta should have traded izturis.
You gotta look at the big picture with odalis perez, and why depodesta signed him.
Drew?, what's the complaint here?
Lowe?, again what's the complaint here?
Gagne, well, that one is complicated and i don't want to get into it.
And by the way depodesta had way more "nonsense contracts" to deal with.
So do you or did you "feel for the situation depodesta was brought into"?
ps sorry if i left somebody out.
5IP 2H 1ER 3bb 10k 1.29era
I think this should have been his last start in the GCL.
Honestly, why can't the cardinals beat the cubs? It's pathetic. The cubs are up again today.
http://tinyurl.com/k6km9
Probably Odgen and hopefully Vero Beach next year just like Billingsley.
Anyone know who the biggest studs are at Columbus?
LOL!!!!!!
I love it.
Actually, I wouldn't mind that at all. It would be a nice challenge for him.
Morris, Wall, Castillo and Johnson. I would think one of these guys would have to get promoted if Kershaw came here.
He's a good speedster, and the Nats don't really have a better leadoff guy, though. Frank Robinson said he wasn't as productive in other spots of the lineup (go figure), so they have him at leadoff.
From a fantasy point of view, leadoff is awesome because he can deliver homers and steals, and still quite a few RBI
275. Are you talking to yourself? LOL...
I feel like I've seen that a few times
I just looove the Nationals bullpen so far this series.
Honestly, the tone in here gets so nasty with all the bickering, it's amazing to me that anyone ever thinks there's a unanimous viewpoint here.
How can I get people to stop taking shots at each other? Really. Help me out.
Impose martial law on Dodgerthoughts!
Nate, check out Chad's numbers in Ogden and compare them to Kershaw's, maybe Clayton could go straight to Vero Beach
Pioneer League is completely different from GCL. Better hitters park, older, more advanced hitters. So its hard to really compare them with each other straight up.
I think Kershaw should get a taste of Columbus. Or stay where he is. How ridiculous is a move to Ogden. Do you realize how far out that is, and how similiar to the GCL.