Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Okay, something's nagging at me a little bit about Friday's trade. And it's not the news that the Dodgers are paying the remainder of Danys Baez's contract, though I suppose that's kind of annoying.
In Willy Aybar, the Dodgers got rid of a player who displayed a nice grasp of the strike zone (he walked about once every six at-bats, with fewer strikeouts than walks) and an excellent doubles rate (20 doubles in his first 214 major-league at-bats, projecting to roughly 50 for a full season) for an older player (how much older, we're not exactly sure) whose principal advantage, at least for now, is home run power. There are mixed reports on both players' defense.
It's not that Wilson Betemit's nine home runs in 199 at-bats this season don't matter to me, but do they outweigh the points against him?
I'm splitting hairs a little bit. The trade succeeds in boosting the Dodgers' thin hopes for this year without sacrificing the future in any significant way - in fact, it may help the future as well. The worst possibility is that in a few years, we learn that Aybar is the superior talent.
But I woke up this morning feeling a little sad about how much the Dodgers focused on what Aybar lacked instead of what he offered.
A couple days ago, when I pointed out the Baseball Prospectus study that Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee each represented just a one-win improvement for the remainder of the season if either replaced Kenny Lofton, I have to admit that it puzzled me. You can imagine Soriano coming in here and hitting a three-run homer that gives the Dodgers a victory - is the idea that putting that aside, Soriano and Lofton would be equal?
And then you think about it. Baseball's a tradeoff. On another hypothetical night, Soriano would go 0 for 4 when Lofton might get two hits and stolen base. It goes back and forth like that over 60 games, and somehow the differences minimize. Soriano's still better, but he's not better every game.
So I think about how Aybar was benched so that Cesar Izturis could play. Izturis is without a doubt the more spectacular fielder. But in many games, Aybar would make all the plays at third base that Izturis would make. And yes, in a few games, Aybar would make more plays than Izturis, because Izturis isn't perfect.
In the end, Izturis comes out ahead. But when you have the reptuation of being a better fielder, people tend to focus on the plays you make and forgive the plays you don't. For Aybar, it was the opposite. The differences get blown out of proportion - just like the differences between Soriano and Lofton, which is why you don't break First Prospect Bank to get Soriano.
Meanwhile, at his worst, Aybar hit home runs more often than Izturis, who celebrates them like birthdays. In fact, there isn't a single aspect of using the bat in which Aybar, at age 23, isn't already superior to the 26-year-old Izturis - and that factors in Aybar's summer slump. You don't know offensive slumps until you've seen Izturis.
Again, I get what Friday's trade was about. It was an attempt to balance prayers for 2006 with hopes for the future. I'm not complaining about that.
But another underlying truth about the trade - unless other moves are made - is that it was a final exchange of Aybar for Izturis. Given that Izturis was contributing almost nothing toward the team's current hopes, and that he realistically has no future with the Dodgers - as soon as Jeff Kent returns, Izturis is supposed to go to the bench if he hasn't already been traded - this is the trade that's bugging me.
And I don't even have the raging dislike for Izturis that some others have. I love his glove, and I'm dispassionately bored by his bat. He is who he is. A great-fielding No. 8 hitter. Just like the great-fielding 22-year-old the Dodgers have at AA Jacksonville, Chin-Lung Hu.
I don't know if Atlanta would have taken Izturis instead of Aybar, though it does appear that their primary goal was Baez and so the second player in the trade could have been either infielder. I also don't know if Izturis will yield a bigger prize in a few days or months. All I can say is that as I write this, I'd rather Aybar were still in the Dodger organization, for all his flaws, even if he were at AAA, than Izturis.
* * *
Update: James Loney has been recalled from Las Vegas, according to Inside the Dodgers. Techincally, Loney takes Aybar's spot. Betemit will be held off the active roster until Sunday, at which point another roster opening will have to be made available. Perhaps that will be Izturis? Or someone else whose time as a Dodger has expired?
Olmedo Saenz got hit by two pitches Friday - at least one painfully - so that could be a factor as well.
* * *
Nice to see Loney back
So that's Nomar to the DL, or the dumping of Jose Cruz.
O'Connor is a lefty, so that makes me wonder if Loney still gets the start, as well as whether Repko gets the start in CF.
About Aybar-Betemit, I pretty much said what I felt about it in last night's thread, but it does appear that the Dodgers were trading Baez to the Braves and the Braves required a utility infielder in return to replace him. I don't think the Dodgers were as down on Aybar as it may appear but they'd obviously soured on him as a starter a little.
I do think when you see Betemit play for LA you will see a better all around player than Aybar.
I need breakfast.
Wow, I can't believe it - the game is on Fox here in SF today. Not that they usually do well on Fox telecasts, but hope springs eternal.
Amen to that, jon.
Techincally, Loney takes Aybar's spot. Betemit will be held off the active roster until Sunday, at which point another roster opening will have to be made available. Perhaps that will be Izturis? Or someone else whose time as a Dodger has expired?
That's what i brought up at the end of the last thread.
I think izturis will be out the door to activate betemit, then loney sent down when kent returns (unless another position player is dealt with izturis).
What i would like to know is where does betemit fit in our long term plans:
2b?, what about kent/dewitt?
3b?, what about laroche?
ss?, what about furcal? (this is where i'd like betemit)
Maybe 3b the rest of this season, utility next season assuming kent 2b furcal ss laroche 3b, 2b in 2008 since kent will be gone, then ss in 2009 when furcal is gone and dewitt is ready for 2b.
Also interesting to read the comments about the trade on the MLB Trade Rumors blog:
http://tinyurl.com/rlvm8
Izzy is a shortstop masquerading in any other position he plays. And while his salary is in line for a defensive plus shortstop, there is no such thing as a defense first third basemen.
Furcal, SS
Repko, CF
Drew, RF
Saenz, 1B
Ethier, LF
Martin, C
Izturis, 3B
Martinez, 2B
Lowe, P
Laroche > betemit at 3b
Kent then dewitt > betemit at 2b
Betemit > furcal at ss, plus you dump furcal's contract.
But right now this season anyone is better than izturis at 3b, therefore this season betemit is an upgrade no matter what.
But this season is over as far as i'm concerned.
Salomon Torres, who been mentioned in trade rumors with the Giants, doesn't want to go back to San Francisco.
"If I could beg, I would beg. Send me where you want, but not to San Francisco," he said. Torres added that he hated his last two years with the Giants, and he also doesn't want to again play for Felipe Alou, who managed him while with the Expos in 1997. "By far, that's the worst time I had in my career," Torres said. "It prompted my (temporary) retirement. He didn't treat me the way I felt he should have been treating me. ... He never went straight to me and told me what was going on, and I resent him for that."
he's only gonna be here for a little bit, unless Nomar will go on the D.L. or something.
21 "I really doubt management will let Izzy go to triple-A (they love his glove)" -
I don't think Izturis can be sent down to AAA unless it's for an injury rehab, no? He's probably well out of options as a veteran.
Definitely will be an interesting couple more days. I just hope it's interesting because the Dodgers win more than anything else.
Now first and third with two outs.
One thing that I'm not sure has been mentioned is that by obtaining Betimit we block the Pads from getting him. I think they need a 3b as much as we did.
also, and this is pure speculation on my part, I wonder why izturis isn't mentioned in any possible deals to Toronto. He would be no worse offensively than Adams or McDonald and with GBers like Halladay, AJB, and Janssen, he would be a huge upgrade defensively.
Oh yeah, and I HATE FOX!!!
Martin c
Drew rf
Nomar 1b
Ethier lf
Kent 2b
Kemp cf
Laroche 3b
Betemit ss
Bench: Saenz, guzman, loney, repko, backup catcher, a cheap guy
Looks good to me.
Get some pitching with the money comin off the books.
Exactly.
This trade would have been better if Izturis was going to Atlanta instead of Aybar. The Dodgers gave up a guy that knows the K zone, for a hacker. Hopefully the hacker is having a legit spike in HRs and can play 2b. If not, all this trade accomplished was taking away the dilemma of offering Baez arbitration.
Now somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but if he's traded, doesn't that mean that he can demand a trade from his new club at the end of the season? (Or does he have the right to opt out of his contract?) I imagine that would make him quite untradeable, or at least would give him serious veto power over any deal.
I doubt very much that Furcal gets dealt anywhere.
Saying Betemit>Izturis would need a good bit of actual proving.
If we trade Iz, which isn't ness. bad, we don't need to undermine his value with venom. He is among the best D ss's available, should get a good player straight up.
In otherwords, I think it would be the height of stupidity to make a trade that undervalues him, just to save a few people irritation.
I'd take Jason Frasor back for Izzy. He's probably the best of the big-league ready pitchers they have.
I'd be afraid what the add-on's would be in such a trade. Baltimore would certainly want pitching with Furcal, or cash to supplement his salary (making Tejada's reasonable contract not so reasonable anymore).
I think Tejada rumors mostly center around the Astros and Angels right now. I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to be in on that action, most likely.
Btw, I wouldn't be averse to a Frasor for Izturis trade. Did we send them Frasor in the Jayson Werth trade or was thath another one?
Figgins has 10 outfield putouts in 5 innings, easily on the way to breaking the record of 12.
If the Dodgers are paying for Baez, I for sure would have wanted a A or AA arm from Atlanta to be added to the deal that could project into the Dodger bullpen in the future.
Count me as one who likes Izzy at shortstop. The really bad move I think Ned made this past offseason was signing Furcal for 13 million. Izzy at 3 would leave at lot more room to pay for what the Dodgers have needed for the past few years: starting pitching.
Stan from Tacoma
Izzy at 2B improves this pitching staff, which needs all the help it can get.
Full-time SS.
who cares...it gets rid of the guy and gives us 3 mill for next year.
You know, this is one Ned trade I wasn't going to rail...then I read we're paying ALL of Baez's contract. Ugh. There's always some little detail that feels like we're getting backhanded.
Agree, but the mob has spoken.
his market value is never going to go up. Izzy is Izzy...everyone knows what he brings. Might as well cash in and see if someone team is willing to give us ANYTHING back so we have his contract off the books.
What?
Izzy at 2B improves this pitching staff,
I don't subscribe to that philosophy, that defense helps pitching, and on top of that izturis can't hit the side of a barn.
Sorry for being straight forward but i've been waiting for izturis to get traded for many years, so many years that i can't remember how many years.
Tell that to Brandon Webb's ERA since they acquired Orlando Hudson's GG 2nd base glove
Exactly, i don't buy into veterans increasing their trade value, they are veterans you know what they have done in the past.
Prospects on the otherhand can increase their trade value.
eh.
Meaning if you need "cesar i'm god on defense izturis" instead of a regular defensive shortstop then you might not be a very good pitcher.
Are there any numbers you can show us that say Orlando Hudson is responsible for Webb's low ERA?
I don't think another million bucks or so is gonna kill us
Im talking about next year. If we're paying this guy 3 mill next year to be a utility player then something is wrong. Would we be saying we should keep Royce Clayton for 3 mill next year? No...and they're essentially the same player.
It's a shame those undesirables aren't as intellectually honest as you and I are, isn't it?
There isn't any true evidence that Hudson has helped, but in the fantasy world Webb was a breakout candidate due to the fact that an improved defensive infield would be huge for his extreme groundball tendencies. I'm not saying great infield defense will help all pitchers that much, but it only makes sense that having a fielder who gets to more balls - whether it be better outfielders for a flyball pitcher or better infielders for a sinkerballer - will be beneficial to the starting pitcher.
His great year is due to a slashed walk rate mostly (1.57 BB/9, easily the best of his career so far) -- his OAV is .254, right in line with 2005 (.265) and 2004 (.248).
Of course you could make the argument that having O-Dawg behind him gives him more confidence to simply pound the strike zone and let the batter try to hit it...
the problem I have is that it was phrased as if Hudson is responsible for Webb's success. Does he help? Sure. But is it to a degree that's even noticeable? probably not.
Webb's struck out 121 batters this year. Meanwhile he's only walked 28 and only given up 11 HR. That doesn't have much to do with Orlando Hudson.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Hudson is an amazing defender. He is God-like with the glove. He is so far ahead of other players defensively at his position that they should just hand him the gold glove if he plays 120 games.
I hope that Loney being called up means that he won't be traded.
Nate can you please kidnap Greg Miller and Delwyn Young? I don't want them being traded for Greg Maddux!
how does this somehow justify paying Izturis?
We weren't going to ditch Odalis no matter what without paying for some of his deal.
As far as Baez, I can't believe we're paying it but at least it's only for this year.
Meanwhile, Izturis is on the hook for 3 mill next year. For the life of me I can't see why this guy gets such a pass around here. He's a utility infielder/defensive replacement. That's what he is. Yet everyone seems to think he's so valuable. Trade him, and use that 3 mill towards Zito or Schmidt.
There are possibly times when the DT commenting community could have an influence on front-office thinking. But the crediblity of commments laced with venom is automatically destroyed, regardless of their merits.
Especially when what is supposed to be logic is laced with unprovable biases of its own. The best/worst example is the idea that good defense doesn't help pitching, e.g. has no effect on runs scored by the opposition. Someone who does baseball for a living immediately moves you to the children's table when you say things like that, and everything good you bring to the discussion will be ignored.
From listening to everyone here, the more accurate statement is: "No statistical model yet exists to reliably quantify the impact of good defense. So we don't know."
The fact that you can't measure it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It means you need a new instrument of measurement.
no disrespect but we're paying a guy 13,000,000.00 & he seems totally cluess to what his job is!. You know the guy that swings for the fences & makes a ton of errors.
At least on our payroll.
That's not what i meant.
I think i've made myself clear about what i think of defense many times here, and i don't think defense is irrelevant as you put it.
Better defense = more balls caught = less hits = lower ERA.
Really? So did the Tigers staff's K-rate, did they spend the offseason getting the best shamrocks and rabbit's feet money can buy?
I'm guilty of being a bad commenter but it's only because I'm very passionate (sp?) I totally see & respect you're point.
we're not many teams with a moderate payroll. There is no place for him now with Betemit here.
His trade value should be treated accordingly.
how much trade value is there for a guy who can't hit? Honestly, I disagree with you because I don't think he'd start on most teams. His trade value lies in simply getting his contract off the books. He has no place here, no need to keep him. Trade him for a mid level prospect.
I mean, how is Izturis any different from JT Snow? Neither can hit, both can field great. Yet JT Snow is a defensive replacement but everyone around here thinks Izturis is the cat's meow. Classic example of fans over-valuing their own players.
I actually don't see you're point here because Izzy plays a premium position were as J.T. plays first base, again I don't see you're point.
please explain to me how SS is more "premium" than first base.
well if Furcal could aim the ball better Nomar wouldn't have to save him have the time, I don't consider 1st & SS the same type postion sorry.
and thank you Dodgers for playing firestorm...(ugh)
I don't buy that you can just throw anyone at first base.
I still haven't seen one person successfully justify keeping Izturis.
There's no place for him on this team
He's a utility infielders making 3 mill
He can't hit water if he jumped out of a boat.
If you guys are dying to have someone that can't hit but is great defensively then we might as well just bring up Hu...at least he only costs the league minimum.
BOOYAH indeed.
You said it.
Wow. You might pull a hamstring from stretching your side of the argument.
Okay, you can't throw anyone at first, but you could put anyone who's even decent at any other position, and they'd be a good first baseman. Why do you think teams stash their immobile power hitters there? It minimizes the damage they can do.
Izzy has major pop (did you see he's blast yesterday)
Most people just don't want to give Izturis away because there's at least some market for him. Toronto would be a great fit because they already have a good enough offense that putting Izzy in the 9-hole wouldn't kill them.
Runs Gloved In. :)
I thought Betemit was 26?
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love it.
Lowe - 51 through 2
O'Connor - 27 through 1
I went to his game about 3 weeks ago, & he really wasn't on his game.
That's my whole argument.
And how much more important is izturis god like defense with no hitting over a player with good or average defense with way better hitting ?
when can get .500 pitchers for 2 years at 4.5 million per? (Tomko)
I like it.
I'm not sure we have someone with average defense who is a WAY better hitter.
But I don't really disagree with you that much.
I'd at least wait to see if he can settle down in the third.
That wasn't a very good bunt
We should be blaming Martinez for not running on that play.
lol.
Stop. Just stop. Stop thinking that, stop saying that, stop believing that. Players go to the team that offers them the most money over the most years. Union rules.
bunt better (did you see that week bunt attempt)
there is a fine line between hope and fantasyland.
I'm not seeing why Lowe is taking the blame when that would have been a fine bunt if Ramon Martinez wouldn't have stopped running.
yeah that was another thing. your right.
Tuesday August 1
Odalis Perez vs Mark Buehrle
Odalis' first start as a Royal
Aybar's peripherals showed him to be a better hitter than izturis. Also, his "ineptness" on defense was overhyped. There is no reason Izturis should play ahead of him.
Izturis's bat is not worth having in the lineup just for one or two nice plays every three games or so.
Will he get through 5 innings on less than 120 pitches?
"What!"
"Just kidding. But give me the ball. You're pretty crappy out there today."
IMO, he just dons't hold runners well. he's like 6'5.
Furcal 732 ops
Lofton 726 ops
So now our starting catcher (martin) and our starting ss (furcal) are both opsing higher than our starting cf (lofton) and our starting 3b (izturis).
That right there shows how bad lofton and izturis are.
There is no reason that your ss and catcher should be opsing higher than your cf and 3b.
I swear, you really have to feel for the situation Ned was brought into. All the nonsense contracts he inherited.....Izzy, Odalis, Drew, Lowe, Gagne. How can you win with that?
And don't forget Kim Ng plays GM for a week and lands us Jose Cruz. Thank God we're stuck with Cruz for only this season.
I see that shift against Bonds and Ortiz but with runners on base, is it a wise move?
If Burnett got 5/55 mil, Zito's getting 5/75 mil. I don't care if we trade for him, but that's what he's going to get on the market. Be prepared for that.
Buehrle? right.
I agree, depodesta should have traded izturis.
You gotta look at the big picture with odalis perez, and why depodesta signed him.
Drew?, what's the complaint here?
Lowe?, again what's the complaint here?
Gagne, well, that one is complicated and i don't want to get into it.
And by the way depodesta had way more "nonsense contracts" to deal with.
So do you or did you "feel for the situation depodesta was brought into"?
ps sorry if i left somebody out.
5IP 2H 1ER 3bb 10k 1.29era
I think this should have been his last start in the GCL.
Honestly, why can't the cardinals beat the cubs? It's pathetic. The cubs are up again today.
http://tinyurl.com/k6km9
Probably Odgen and hopefully Vero Beach next year just like Billingsley.
Anyone know who the biggest studs are at Columbus?
LOL!!!!!!
I love it.
Actually, I wouldn't mind that at all. It would be a nice challenge for him.
Morris, Wall, Castillo and Johnson. I would think one of these guys would have to get promoted if Kershaw came here.
He's a good speedster, and the Nats don't really have a better leadoff guy, though. Frank Robinson said he wasn't as productive in other spots of the lineup (go figure), so they have him at leadoff.
From a fantasy point of view, leadoff is awesome because he can deliver homers and steals, and still quite a few RBI
275. Are you talking to yourself? LOL...
I feel like I've seen that a few times
I just looove the Nationals bullpen so far this series.
Honestly, the tone in here gets so nasty with all the bickering, it's amazing to me that anyone ever thinks there's a unanimous viewpoint here.
How can I get people to stop taking shots at each other? Really. Help me out.
Impose martial law on Dodgerthoughts!
Nate, check out Chad's numbers in Ogden and compare them to Kershaw's, maybe Clayton could go straight to Vero Beach
Pioneer League is completely different from GCL. Better hitters park, older, more advanced hitters. So its hard to really compare them with each other straight up.
I think Kershaw should get a taste of Columbus. Or stay where he is. How ridiculous is a move to Ogden. Do you realize how far out that is, and how similiar to the GCL.
And if that doesn't work, sic Brad Penny on them?
Just keep the "Preview comment before saving" box checked.
And bluetahoe, you put it in brackets [ ]. Now be nice.
But there will always be a regular who comes in with a sour attitude and says something sharper than intended. Or a troll enters and exhibits the equivalent behavior of a house guest setting fire to the drapes while insulting the hostess's looks.
Ninety-nine percent of the time, DT is informative and fun while maintaining civility. That 1 percent happens, though.
Hey we're winning! (So far.)
That is impossible.
Maddux throwing his best game in 2 months against the Cards today.
I love Grady Little's sense of humor.
I appreciate that 99 percent or so of the comments here range from harmless to fun. But that nasty 1 percent has a disproportionate impact.
I actually thinks it starts with all the shots taken at the Dodger players and management. This is permitted here, but the language becomes so over-the-top that I'm not sure everyone knows how to dial it back down when they directly address each other.
Smugness isn't a bannable offense, but there is a level of smugness here that is just too high, for reasons not limited to the following:
1) We don't know everything - none of us do.
2) Reasonable, intelligent people can disagree.
3) Certain truths are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Most of us could use a little more humility, I feel.
Translates to: Stop smelling your own farts!!
I feel much more comfortable with 2 outs pitching to Felipe Lopez.
Didn't GoBears (or was it OldBear? I get my bears confused from time to time.) do a really nice post about that sort of thing a while back?
Very good point.
If this blog allowed signatures, this would be mine:
107ABs-.243/.293/.308
OPS-.601
RATE2 at 3b: 96
Susan Powter-- "Stop the Insanity"
lol
Horrible AB right there.
I'm also very glad he just popped out to right.
LOL
As far as izturis sucking (sorry about that word but someone else used it) all you gotta do is look at his career ops of 633 and his season ops of 632 and realize he's consistent (what kind of consistent i'll leave it to the imagination).
regfairfield- do you have Orlando Hudson's fielding numbers from the fielding bible? Some people here don't seem to think that defense is important. I remember reading a few years ago that Hudson was more valuable than Soriano because his defense was so much better.
I'm on my 6th beer sorry.
And for the record, I don't smell my own farts, at least not intentionally, sometimes you can't help it.
I am saving my drinking for tonight.
One of the dirty little serets is that this one person likes the smell of his poop. That being said, I don't mind the smell of my poop or farts, but the smell of others poop and farts gags me.
Btw, Repko was clearly safe, but whatever.
And gpell, I think also you just opened the floodgates for a broader conversation here, don't think all this should be just about one snarky comment.
I like the smell of victory?
I use to eat that cereal when i was young. LOL
I also believe that in today's culture, if you are not on my side, then you must be the enemy. No one ever wants to take the time to understand the other point of view.
I go to DodgerThoughts to escape that but lately, there has been a tendency to launch into sides regarding the GM or a player.
But at least for 2 days, the Dodgers are scoring and I have not checked but maybe Jon knows, did they finally hit enough homers to go over the low for the month of July?
WARP sucks because it doesnt show izzy as a terrible player :)
Hudson has been around a seven win player even though he can't hit thanks to his defense. Soriano was around 5.5 wins in 2004 and 2005.
I've heard Buehrle's competivie nature is in question.JMO.(in the past)
MMMMMM.. Phillipe's!
I heard a D.T. commenter say rate2 is dead to him
Well, Jae Seo will get a W in Tampa
my trade:
Baez and Lofton to the Astros for 3 pitching prospects, paul estrada, matt albers, and juan gutierrez.
neds trade:
Baez and Aybar for Betemit
which trade was better?
Bingo!
In my opinion and its only my opinion anyone arguing that this player is better defensively than that player is only an opinion, in my opinion.
Its different with offense and pitching, there are valid (maybe a better word than valid) stats for offense and pitching, but in my opinion there isn't for defense and that's why i don't put stock in defense.
It was accepted! Just not in real life, just in the GM Simulation thing.
Pretty good. Alot of the GMs for the other teams sort of lost interest so it was hard to get things going in the last week because no one would respond back. I wanted to do a bit more but its a two way street and the other end wasnt doing their part.
Yanks 5
Bottom 7
Seems that every year, the Yankees absorb a beating like this, which totally screws with the Pythag projections. End result: It will appear as if the NYY outperformed their stats. In '04, when Cleveland beat them something like 22-0, that game led to an extra win - a whole win - above the projection based on RS/RA.
Then, Yankees fans crow about how the team did better than could be expected, when the real truth is the back end of the bullpen is terrible.
I hate that.
Seo's game score: 30
Johnson's game score: 15
Seo had 1 K
Johnson had 0
So you want Broxton to blow the save? ;)
Phill Hughes of Yankee farm system fame?
Yep, him.
What's Broxton throwing today?
If only Ned pulled that one off....
95-98 with the fb
Let's all clap for the Bull's first save
Booyah broxton!
427 I know you are a reasonable fellow who doesn't undervalue Iz. Shortstop is an expensive place to look for your offense esp. in the NL recently. I'm old, and have seen times where defense and pitching have contributed to pride and together been more val. than offense.
Where does Soriano go?
We play the Pirates in September!
I guess I'm not against getting Maddux, but if we give up anything good then we're being fleeced.
Hopefully the Cubs see it as a salary dump.
That's what I'm thinking. If Ned sells high on Saito I'll be ecstatic.
Dodgers have 17 games vs Reds, Mets, and Padres left.
Cubs asked for Ethier (according to ESPN Insider), so clearly this is not a salary dump for them.
I will offer them Houlton for Maddux.
Dodgers get immediate 3B upgrade
posted: Saturday, July 29, 2006 | Print Entry
The Dodgers used Danys Baez to upgrade their third baseman of the immediate future. Wilson Betemit, 26, is a four-tool player whose speed has been lost as he has filled out over the past few years.
The switch-hitter crushes right-handers, can play third, second or short in a pinch, and has slightly above-average power to all fields. He's a significant improvement over Willy Aybar, who is three years younger but has stagnated at the plate since he was signed at age 16 in 1999. For the Dodgers, this amounts to trading Edwin Jackson, Chuck Tiffany and Aybar for Betemit, and that's a clear win.
In exchange for Betemit, the Braves get Baez, who like Bob Wickman is known more for his save totals than his ability to miss bats. Baez has a solid-average fastball but no real out pitch, and only this year has he shown even average control.
That said, the Braves' bullpen was their biggest weakness -- well, other than Jeff Francoeur -- and Baez immediately becomes their best late-game option from the right side.
guh. I didn't think of it that way.
471-
Agreed...a lower level pitcher like a Houlton is about all I'd give up.
I like the trade, but still can't believe we're paying Baez.
I do not like the idea of saying Edwin, Tiffany, and Aybar for Betemit is a clear win. All of these players are young and they can not be evaluated till a few years from now, especially Edwin and Tiffany, who have very good stuff and need to harness it.
Then don't say it.
Betemit-495 Career AB's- .281/.341/.432
How can Aybar be 'stagnant', when it took Betemit like 10 years to reach the major leagues?
I really think Aybar's is being undervalued. A kid that young that has command of the K zone, is an important tribute.
Betemit is a hacker. He is. Hopefully he hits enough homers to justify his trade, but he's a major league hacker.
Yes, improved run prevention, excellent to see, give Hendrickson as much help as possible. Loney, Izturis, Martin and Drew give Hendrickson four good defenders. And Izzy at 2B can only help Furcal -- but in fairness, Izzy has played very little 2B since his early days in Toronto, so allowances should be made.
Here is Dewan on Orlando Hudson:
The best defensie second baseman in the game. He has great range, especially into the second base hole to his left and is particularly adept at going back on popups. He is very tough and will stay in on the doubelplay and take contact....Using Bill James' new relative range system, Hudson is off the charts with total of plus-64, plus-96 and plus-89 over the last three years compare to Bret Boones plus-30, minus-29 and minus-15.
VS RHP: 363ABs- .292/.360/.455
VS LHP: 132ABs- .250/.289/.371
Aybar's career:
VS RHP: 170ABs- .306/.413/.471
VS LHP: 44ABs- .182/.321/.273
I'm not sure what exactly Keith Law is looking at when he says that Betemit is a significant improvement over Aybar. He's more proven, but I'm not sure if he's an improvement.
Guess we'll see how it plays out.
You just said yesterday that Izzy was a GG 2nd basemen.
Now he gets "allowances"?
Strange.
My evaluation of EJ, sad to say, is he actually does more harm than good, because the "potential" and velocity get him premature opportunities that end up hurting your major league club and hurt your bullpen and his confidence. It's a shame, because I believe he was mishandled in 2003, but it appear he peaked in 2003 at age 19-20.
Tiffany had yellow flags sticking out of his body last winter. Now, several of those flags are red. Sad to say, there's little reason to think he'll be a major league contributor. Rotator cuff injuries of that magnitude to a young power pitcher....it's a shame but just not a lot of cause for optimism.
This year is his first season of hitting for power. He's 3yrs older than Aybar. Look at Betemit's entire career, not just this year. Do the same with Aybar. When you're dealing with youngsters, you have to look at as much data as possible, since neither have distinguishable minor league track records.
Willie will OPS below 725 the rest of the season in Atlanta. Just like Perez was overvalued here, so is Willie.
Well, I'll file this under your Brett Tomko, Mark Hendrickson, and Danys Baez predictions.
Rejoinders such as yours bring to mind Emerson's comments about hobgoblins....
It's not mutually exclusive for a player to be very good at something yet require some sort of transitionary period to regain his feel for the task, to knock off some rust, to reorient himself to another side of the field. The move from 3B to 2B requires several adjustments -- an entirely different perspective on the pivot and popups, etc.
As part of evaluating performance, such things should be taken into account, that is, if one's interested in being fair about it.
The contextual truth is Izturis missed an entire year and has seldom played 2B in the last few years.
Seems entirely reasonable to grant him some sort of allowance to acclimate.
And yes, given a fair transitional period and regular work, he should be an excellent 2B. However, with Hudson in the NL, I won't rate him GG-caliber in this league. Excellent suffices.
I wouldn't be averse to reading a philosophical treatise on whether it's possible for any given player to hurt the Devil Rays.
I would advise, however, refraining from a Mel Gibson style rant against Jews. Just a suggestion.
elaborate on the Dontrelle rumors.
I think this is fair:
Izturis is a horrible hitter. You've offered no evidence as to why Izzy will be the .730-.760 OPS player that you projected to him be. Secondly, you've been touting the Izturis for 2nd base GG approach for awhile now. However, now it appears you've changed your mind. Thats fine, but dont act like you didnt just say a couple weeks ago that Izturis would be GG at 2nd. And I believe my response was that Izturis hadnt played 2nd base in 5 years, and it was unrealistic to put him there.
Its one thing to argue statistics that are apparent for everyone to see. Its another to argue conjecture and projection, without any evidence to back it up.
The problem with arguing defense is that its never a clear argument. One person can point to Rate2, and then someone else says to just disregard it. Another person can say, "We'll, Izzy might not be great, but give him time...I'm left wondering how long, and how many days of .620 OPS should the team have to suffer with"... So, you're back to just saying "I like what I see from this guy". We'll thats great, but pardon me if I tend to place 90% of evalutation into what I know to be true (Offensive statistics).
Its a lot easier to dismiss players when there are statistics to back them up. Its alot harder to buy into the stuff that defensive minded people say "just bc it cant be measured doesnt mean its not real".
Well, just bc it cant be measured doesnt mean you can place some high value on it either, and have it accepted as truth.
Izzy cant prevent pitchers from walking guys, giving up HRs. Izzy cant force pitchers to strike out batters. Thats where preventing runs (defense) all starts. Having 1 good defensive player at 2nd base, I'm sorry I just cant see it making a difference when the guy cant hit.
He's 26.
The Braves would have thought higher of him if he was 24.
Very well said.
I totally agree 100%.
put it this way "I feel god like" quoting a galegher brother (Oasis lead singer)
Laroche > betemit at 3b
Kent/dewitt > betemit at 2b
Betemit = furcal, but a salary dump is a good thing, so we can get some pitching.
That was so hilarious when he said that. A very good quote to use.
LOL!
We agree a lot.
And we really agree a lot if i think joeyp is who i think he is.
One way to look at it is that there weren't any Aybar for Linebrink rumors floating around out there.
I give up, I'm gonna go get some Subway
This leaves aside judging whether the trade is important. I'm not at all convinced that it is. It looks like an average, give or take, middle reliever plus a reserve IF plus cash for a reserve IF. It seems like if this trade makes a difference of two wins over the next three years, it'll be because something went very wrong, or one of the players got a whole lot better than could reasonably be expected.
That being said he does have some colossal meltdowns. seven run outings, etc.
no, it's not.
And when is he ever going well?
I don't want to give up the players it will take to get him, other than that i'd take him, but lets just sign a couple top notch free agent pitchers instead of giving up prospects and then having to sign mediocre veterans to fill the holes created by trading for willis or signing carlos lee for example at an outragious price.
I'd rather spend money on pitching since we are thin on starting pitching in the minors/prospects.
We have all the offense we need for the immediate future with our prospects, why give it up for willis and then make mistakes with free agent position players.
nothing but improve? He's gotten worse since last year. He's already given up more HR than he did all of last year, his Whip is 30 points higher, and his K/BB is not well over 2 to 1. It's 1.96...I don't know where you got well over 2:1.
He is 24. The majority of pitchers do not peak at 24. If you want to just look at his stats for this year and deny what he has done throughout his career I'm not going to debate with you.
umm..I have no idea what you're referring to.
523-
I thought you were referring to this year's numbers. I'm sorry, but I'm not giving up top notch prospects for a guy who has had one single good year. 2004 was average, 2005 great, now average again. I'm more inclinded to believe that this is the real Willis and not the one we saw last year.
Just throwing it out there, not saying it necessarily matters.
Can someone post the list of players he's most compared to...forget where I saw it, but it isn't good. Willis is an average pitcher. He's one of the most overrated players in the game right now...I'd much rather go after Schmidt/Zito.
Bingo!
And those 2 will not cost us prospects.
Win Win.
I'd rather spend money than prospects.
Hey Link (or anybody else who reads trashy paperbacks), have you read this one?
http://tinyurl.com/k8dem
A 2006 version might be fun, with COLE HAMELS as the Phillies-starter-turned-secret-agent, no?
The good: Jim Kaat
The bad: Steve Avery, Ismael Valdez, Jim Abbott. Guys who had amazing starts to their careers, then flamed out by 27.
I'm not backing off on Izturis being Gold Glove caliber or excellent at 2B -- but as I spelled out, it's only fair to grant him a transitional period to acclimate.
If you inferred that I believe he shouldn't be at 2B as a result, or that he'll subpar there as he adjust, nothing could be further from the truth.
Even as he acclimates, Izturis is still so good defensively that he should be better than average at 2B -- better there than anyone presently on the 40-man roster.
And that's a good thing for this pitching staff.
By the way, you conveniently and habitually omit context from my posts.
If you want to parse the difference between excellent and Gold Glove-caliber, knock yourself out. My later acknowledgement there was that Hudson is so good, the Gold Glove standard in the NL is higher than I first realized.
We agree that Izturis' value dilutes once he moves off SS.
My belief is that the Dodgers should keep him for the remainder of this season because his value at 2B and his offseason trade value combine to exceed what you can get from him in a trade this month. (I'm not assuming Kent will be OK and even if he is Izzy covers you at three spots)
But that assumes the Blue Jays don't succumb to irrational exuberance and that contenders' shortstops stay healthy. Perhaps the ante will rise in the next 48 hours or so.
And as you probably know, I think Izturis at 2B is a boon to this pitching staff, even as he acclimates to a position that he hasn't played regularly in several years.
Ned and his mustache will be on ESPN at 9:00 tonight.
his value at 2B and his offseason trade value combine to exceed what you can get from him in a trade this month
We don't know what his trade value is because we are not privy to the phone calls that the GMs are exchanging. So we have no way of knowing whether he will be worth more in the offseason than he is now.
Perhaps the ante will rise in the next 48 hours or so.
We have no way of determining what the ante is now nor whether it will be rising. We have no idea whether Colletti would even consider trading him, given his ability at several positions, nor do we know if anyone is even asking for him.
Whence that list of comps to Dontrelle? On Baseball-reference.com I find this (through age 23):
Ramon Martinez (973)
Britt Burns (971)
Ross Grimsley (964)
Nig Cuppy (961)
Wally Bunker (960)
Dave McNally (960)
Bob Moose (958)
Lefty Gomez (955) *
Robin Roberts (955) *
Ismael Valdez (954)
Seems to me a fair chance of a decent career, and I'd go for him if he's not too expensive in terms of prospects. Ditto for Zito. I'd pass on Schmidt.
See that I cursed Zimmerman by talking him up yesterday. Figures.
Skimming the game story, this seems like sort of the best version of what Nationals fans can expect this year and next. If the team fights, scores some runs, and stays in games, even if they only win 70-75 of them, the season can be endured. If things run more like yesterday, then obviously that's just grim.
Please no, don't do it ned.
However, if the team were to sign Zito and Schmidt, they'd also need to recoup the picks that they lose from that scenario. Sorianio/Nomar leaving would probably do the trick.
-The Dodgers are offering Kenny Lofton around, not because Alyssa Milano's boyfriend (a.k.a. Brad Penny) yelled at him for alleged lack of hustle but maybe because he doesn't make plays like he used to.
-Shawn Green has told folks he expects to be traded.
SI.com
Ned is my hero if he trades Lofton and gets anything of value in return.
I'd offer Guzman and possibly some other B prospects. I wouldnt trade any pitchers.
Considering the already tight budget (I think 84 mils already committed to 2007), the left over money needs to be going to signing high end pitching.
If the Dodgers, after signing those difference making pitchers, still have room in their budget then I'd make Soriano an offer. But Soriano would be like 3rd on my priority list...
L.A. Finds Third Baseman In Betemit
By Jim Callis
"Betemit, who was traded on his 26th birthday, was pursued by several teams looking for an upgrade at the hot corner. With Chipper Jones at third base in Atlanta, Betemit served as a utilityman and hit .281/.344/.497 with nine homers and 29 RBIs in 88 games this season. A switch-hitter, he's much more effective from the left side, showing the ability to hit for average with at least gap power. His speed and range are just so-so, but he has good hands and a strong arm. Betemit likely won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2008 season. He's a career .281/.341/.432 hitter with 13 homers and 52 RBIs in 233 games."
"Aybar, 23, set a then-record for Dominicans when he signed for $1.4 million in 2000. He batted .326 in a September callup last year, but didn't hit well enough to keep the third-base job after Mueller got hurt. Aybar has hit .250/.356/.414 with three homers and 22 RBIs in 43 games this season. The older brother of prime Angels shortstop prospect Erick Aybar, Willy is an offensive-minded player who doesn't profile perfectly at any position. He has a line-drive bat, strong arm and sound hands, but he lacks the range for second base and the home run power for third. Likely to fill Betemit's former utility role in Atlanta, Aybar won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2008 season at the earliest. He has hit .280/.394/.430 with four homers and 32 RBIs in 69 big league games. "
Then Little gave the ball to Jonathan Broxton for the ninth. Which means he didn't give the ball to Takashi Saito, who has been the closer for the past month. The explanations on Saito were murky.
Little said Saito "overloaded a circuit" while making 37 pitches in a relief appearance Wednesday night and was not available Saturday. In that game, Saito allowed three runs to the Padres. Through an interpreter, Saito first said he was "a little bit tired" from that game, then said he had "a little discomfort," but added that he would be available Sunday.
Little also had Brett Tomko available. Tomko, who moved into the late-inning role Danys Baez had until his Friday trade, made his first relief appearance as a Dodger Friday night, and Little chose not to subject him to an immediate acid test, instead going with Broxton.
So I don't think they were shopping him, but at the same time, Saito is 36
If Izzy does get dealt, I'm really hoping Flanders will hold out for something of decent value in return instead of dumping him like so much flotsam a la Navarro.
Lofton is always on the trading block at this time of the year.
Besides, that one's 432 pages long; by definition a trashy paperback can't be more than 200.
I think Toronto would be good. Who do they have in their minor league system?
As for Phillips, I saw him strike out in Richmond a couple of months ago, and that was not a pretty swing.
I thought it was the Phillies that threw batteries . . .
Davis Romero is 23 and in AAA. He DOB is listed 3/30/83, and he's a 5'10" lefty. He got promoted from AA to AAA a month and a half ago. In AA, his K/9 was 8.55 and he had a 3.68 K/BB. He had 12 stars there. In AAA, he apparently had 3 starts and 9 relief appearances, and the numbers he put up there were 6.41 K/9, but with a 3.83 K/BB.
Out of AA, Jesse Litsch has a really nice K/BB, and good K numbers from single A, but he's getting hit a bit much (bad defense?). He's only 21 (DOB 3-9-85), and he's a 6'1" right hander.
vr, Xei
Kyle Yates, another AA pitcher that I apparently omitted, was rated as having the best curveball in the system. In 17 games (15 starts), he has a 2.52 K/BB and a 7.24 K/9. He's a 5-11 right-hander born 1-8-83. He was a 13th round pick in 2004 out of University of Texas.
It was sort of a Jeremy Guthrie pick, and will probably turn out about as well.
Big deal possibly in works
It once appeared that Monday's non-waiver trading deadline would pass without the Dodgers making a significant move. But with the club already having acquired reliever Elmer Dessens and infielder Wilson Betemit in the past week, it now appears that a more significant trade - or perhaps even two - could be on the way.
The Dodgers are believed to be among the primary suitors for two of the game's elite players in Baltimore shortstop Miguel Tejada and Washington left fielder Alfonso Soriano, as well as one of its all-time greats in Chicago Cubs pitcher Greg Maddux.
Tejada appears to be the most likely acquisition of the three, but he probably would cost the Dodgers a significant young player or two. He also is in just the third season of a six-year, $72 million contract that is heavily backloaded, with Tejada due to receive $38 million over the next three seasons.
Any deal for Tejada would involve either him or Rafael Furcal changing positions, probably to second base, and create a logjam of middle- and left-side infielders with Betemit and Cesar Izturis. Izturis, a former Gold Glove shortstop, probably would be included in a package of players going to the Orioles.
Tejada would be better than Soriano since he's not a rental, but I'd still be weary of trading for him. While he's a great hitter, his defense at SS is attrocious and he's not willing to move to another position. There's also the age factor. It's kind of hard to believe that Tejada is only 30. He's a great hitter and I love his durability, but his defense bothers me. Then there is the issue of what we would have to give up. I'm guessing that the Orioles will be asking for Billingsley, Guzman, Izturis, and another prospect. To get it done, Ned is going to have to trade Elbert. I'd rather not see this deal go down even though Tejada is one of my favorite players, going back to his days with the A's.
Tony Jackson seems to have pretty good "inside sources", but I think it's much more likely that we'll acquire Maddux than Tejada or Soriano.
I doubt it happens, but Furcal's making about the same amount of money as Tejada is the next couple years. This would be a very good deal.
If Tejada comes on board, and Furcal stays..That would not be good unless the McCourts plan to up payroll to 125 mils for 2007. There must be money left over for high end starting pitching.
Tejada for Furcal would be awesome.
However, Tejada probably represents an even greater improvement over Furcal. It'll never happen, but Tejada for Furcal/Billingsley I would do in a heart beat, as long as the Dodgers dont have to pay any of Furcal's salary. Thats the deal Ned needs to get done.
#1. Trade Furcal/Billingsley for Tejada
#2. Trade Lofton, Cruz,Izturis,Ledee, Saito for anything he can get.
#3. Demote Jonathon Broxton to AA and put him in the rotation. Get him ready for next year. This year is done.
Offseason:
#1. Sign Schmidt/Zito both.
Next year's rotation:
#1. Penny
#2. Zito
#3. Schmidt
#4. Lowe
#5. Elbert or Broxton
Lineup:
C- Martin
RF- Drew
SS- Tejada
2b- Kent
CF- Kemp
LF- Ethier
3b- LaRoche/Betemit
1b- Loney (1st basemen bats 8th, y not)
Any deal that gives up a significant pitcher should be a non-starter for the Dodgers.
Betemitt for Aybar/Baez: Aybar and Betemitt are so close in stats that it will be years (if ever) before anyone can really prove one is better than the other. I'm not in love with either one of them so I wouldn't bet a stick of chewing gum on the outcome. Baez; basically we DFAd him since we paid his salary too. All that we got for him was an open space on the roster! If your purpose was to get that opening, (you could get it by DFAing him), and your mug before the cameras, then the trade was a success. But in the real world, nothing happened; the team was neither hurt nor improved.
I'll say this for Cesar. It's nice that he overcame his early reluctance to change positions and is now willing to play anywhere they ask him. It's not often anymore that players will do that.
I'm in the camp that likes a good balance of offense and defense because it's very rare that you'll ever get an offense so overwhelming that you can ignore defense. I think you'll have long dry spells with that philosophy. Of course you can have long dry spells anyway as we've seen with this team.
That said, it still won't bother that much me if he is traded. I really do value Izzy for his defense, but his offense is really bad, especially since he hurt himself last year. If Cesar could just hit some more doubles he'd be incredibly valuable.
607 - But what about removing the negative value that is Danys Baez?
It occurred to me that perhaps, like dominant pitching, very strong defense is most crucial during the playoffs and the last few weeks run towards the playoffs. Errors are much more costly when more is at stake. You can blow off a loss caused by an error earlier in the season, but if one costs you a playoff game, it's devastating. Likewise if your ace gets beaten in the playoffs it's devastating.
Teams like to acquire good pitching later in the season. Boston did it with Schilling, right? But teams never try to shore up their defense for a pennant run. Obviously, one good defender is not as important as a good pitcher, but I wonder if it might not be something to consider.
Defense is critical, because it takes away hits. Especially if you have a groundball pitcher, he needs his defense in order to get outs.
Sam, you will be happy to know they love Ryan Zimmerman. They are trying to sign him to a long term deal although he seems to think he is worth Furcal money. They are also big fans of Brian Schneider.
I will write more later but owed Sam at least this much.
Also got to spend a few minutes with Frank and Jamie.
Furcal, SS
Lofton, CF
Drew, RF
Ethier, LF
Betemit, 3B
Loney, 1B
Izturis, 2B
Hall, C
Hendrickson, P
From insidethedodgers.com
Still a move to be made before first pitch to make room for betemit?
And consider my 2 favorite candidates for a trade are in the lineup (izturis and lofton).
Something tells me i'm gonna be very dissapointed with ned pretty soon.
Furcal, SS
Lofton, CF
Drew, RF
Ethier, LF
Betemit, 3B
Loney, 1B
Izturis, 2B
Hall, C
Hendrickson, P
I hope so, because i don't want to lose any of our prospects that have a strong chance of being on the team next year or elbert and dewitt.
the last couple of days have been very awkward we have so much talent in the minors, I just hope Ned's Brain dosn't have a hik up.
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