Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Today at lunch, after digesting a turkey sandwich on a stale French roll, I was enjoying a bag of krinkle cut barbecue Kettle Chips that struck me as particularly tasty. And by the end, I was doing what I've been doing with a bag of particularly tasty chips ever since I was a child, which was to use my finger to pad out every single delicious crumb I could get. (At my desk at work, no less.)
From time to time, and today was one of those times, I think about how, well, childish a gesture this is. Somehow, it has to be beneath me, right? And I thought to myself, I wonder if I'll ever be the kind of person who, when he gets down to crumb level, is either mature enough to just throw the crumbs away or jolly enough in wallet and gut to march right back over and treat myself to a fresh new bag of wholly formed chips.
All these high-level musings came before J.D. Drew became a free agent tonight, but they're all surprisingly relevant. Because you can't truly evaluate how much you should be willing to spend on a player or a bag of chips without knowing how much money you have to spend to begin with.
And as you may recall, we have no idea what the Dodgers' budget for salaries is.
Is J.D. Drew too expensive for his value? Is Alfonso Soriano? Is Barry Zito? We can make comparisons to what other players are paid - one player may be more worthy of $X million than another - but ultimately they don't tell the whole story. A multi-millionaire with low cholesterol can buy 10 bags of chips for lunch and bask in all the salty ridges like a puppy in the summer grass.
Prior to 2006, we had an idea of what the Dodger budget limit was. I can't say I know now - I don't know if any of us know.
It's just something to keep in mind as the Dodgers pursue fortifications for their roster. Whatever money they put in baseball's vending machine, we don't completely know if it's smart or dumb without knowing how much is left in their wallet.
* * *
I'm probably going to regret saying this, but if Paul DePodesta had been caught off guard by Drew's departure in the exact, exact same fashion as Ned Colletti was, however innocently, however insignificantly, with that month going by without a phone call, we would be hearing all about how rotten a communicator DePodesta was.
"I told [Colletti] there was a strong demand in the marketplace for guys with J.D.'s skills," said Scott Boras, Drew's agent. "They never made any proposals to us. I let them know we would be open to listening."
But I expect Colletti will be let off the hook - which is fine, just different.
Update: Real quote:
"When Scott broached it (opting out) with me, I said, 'Scott, if that's what J.D. wants to do and what you decide to do, I'm finished with him,'" Colletti said. "We want players who want to be here. He wants out. He can have out.
Imaginary quote:
"When Ned broached (buying out Gagne's option) with me, I said, 'Ned, if that's what the Dodgers want to do and what you decide to do, I'm finished with you,'" Boras said. "We want teams who want to be with us. He wants out. He can have out."
Is the imaginary quote any more or less logical?
Drew wanted a raise. He may have come to that decision to ask for one just over the past month, but is that so wrong? Even if you don't think he deserves the raise, is it so despicable for him to seek one? If you think he won't get the raise, then the Dodgers could theoretically sign him for less money? So what's the problem?
btw, kettle chips are incredible.
Book it.
I think Carlos Lee's deal will set the market for the next few years. If a good, but not great player cashes in, the Dodgers would be lucky to get a player even resembling Drew for 11 million a year.
Probably just a column from Tim Brown.
At this point I fail to see how the analogy applies. So I will declare myself to be an artist, having created something with no particular meaning, and perhaps someone will derive some meaning from it.
D4P may not book it either.
While the deal was similar to the Ramirez situation in Chicago, until today, Drew, Boras and the Dodgers had not even hinted that Drew wanted to renegotiate his contract.
Ned was in a situation that he inherited and I can understand why he would not want to give Drew more money or years, given that he had 3/$33M already guaranteed.
So, if Boras wants to say that they gave the Dodgers the chance to pay Drew a little more or risk losing him, so be it, but Boras got this out in Drew's contract and now he is using it to get a better deal and I think it is unfair for him to say that all the Dodgers had to do was pay Drew more money when he already had a contract.
I don't believe you can sell someone else's soul unless you get a waiver from the Intercontinental Soul Arbitrage Collective, which is headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
i hope you mean Andruw Jones
12 You know what's good? BBQ chips inside the sandwich. Having said that, I'm now unexpectedly headed into the kitchen for a sandwich with some sort of chips inside. :)
Colletti chose not to bite. That might've been the wise move, maybe not, but his complaining about it today now seems a little childish.
Unless of course Boras is lying.
See the landmark Milhouse Van Houten v. Bart Simpson case for further precident.
20 - $20 Million/yr. Jones may be asking for the same next year.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/10/the-20-million-man/
Unless of course Boras is lying.*
Boras lying!!??? no freaking way!!??
I think some folks are wildy underestimating what it would cost to sign a bat comparable to Drew's. Drew opted out primarily because he can get more money, not because he is unhappy in LA. This means that players of his caliber cost more than $11M per year.
If Nomar isn't back, does anyone think Coletti could join the Giants in pursuit of a guy like Sexson? Not that he would solve much of anything, just that Coletti is the type to be interested in someone like that.
specialy if he pays more money!! ;o)
Sandwiches...Is there anything they can't do?
Van Houten vs. Simpson was just a circuit decision and it is only the law in Springfield. It is not part of U.S. or international law.
There is an international treaty banning the sale of souls. Most countries are signatories with the exceptions of Mauritania and Jamaica.
Not a big fan of mayo nowadays. Sometimes I think it's a wonder I made it to adulthood. :)
Learn something new every day.
One of my favorite sandwich places: Bay Cities Italian Deli & Bakery, 1517 Lincoln Blvd., Santa Monica.
Good stuff I tell ya, good stuff.
My wife loves fried baloney, I like scrambled eggs, fresh bread, mayo and Franks Hot Sauce. Peanut butter and clausen dill pickle slices is better than I would've thought.
Frank's Hot Sauce may be the single most important liquid the world has ever known.
Water is important too, I guess.
40 Beer. Then Frank's. Then water. ;)
So you were east of the Rockies weren't you?
...
"The last time I spoke with him, we had a nice conversation," Colletti said. "I don't really need to (speak to Drew) at this point."
While Colletti refused to say he was angry, his feelings came through during a 30-minute conference call.
"I hang onto my feelings," Colletti said. "You try to use some diplomacy right now."
But the GM also said: "I know J.D. is a spiritual guy and a man of his word. I guess he changed his word. You learn never to be surprised when you're dealing in this arena. People change their minds. People change their word. They move on."
...
Also, I love adding chips to sandwiches but the British, who for very good reason are widely believed to have the worst cuisine in the world, go in an extreme direction on this: the Chip Butty. Take 2 slices of bread, add butter or mayo (or even ketchup), add a pile of "chips" (what we call fries in the US) and that's your sandwich. Up until the government reformed school lunch menus this year, that concoction was served in many school cafeterias.
38. I love scrambled sandwiches. Never had it with hot sauce, will have to give it a try. I never quite got the fried balony thing. I tried and it was ok-just didn't wow me.
That square Oscar-Meyer ham with the yellow cheese spots. Now that was pinnacle of lunch meat.
Thankfully, Rhode Island was 20 short minutes away. But what a shock. And they call sub sandwiches "Grinders."
Beer, regional differences, sandwiches...Yup, that about covers it.
Have they?
"In the end, there's no reason for anger by anyone. Drew was just exercising his rights. Boras is just doing his job. The Dodgers eventually will get what they want. None of this was illegal or unethical."
If Drew/Boras had wanted to stay in LA with the Dodgers, wouldn't the easier way have been to simply say how about a little more coin over the next three years. I also wonder what it is like to lose a star player and then immediately have to negotiate a new contract with a different player but from the same agent.
If there is ever a conflict of interest this is certainily it
I always thought Plaschke was BlueTahoe
On second thought, give DePodesta a standing ovation.
I win! He both insults and backhanded compliments DePo!
also, on his planet, aches are visible. unless he's confusing "hidden soreness" with " hidden sores". i never heard about jd drew having sores, but that's not the kind of thing i need to know about.
in the lack of self-awareness department: "He[Drew] grew weary of media that kept applying the heat." plaschke then goes back to attacking him in the very next sentence.
brilliant.
I've read the Colletti comments a dozen times now, and am struggling to find a way to describe it without resorting to Neanderthalisms. It wasn't very manly, though, was it? Try to picture Tony Soprano saying the things Colletti did.
When I read Colletti's comments the first time, my response was, "Oh butch up, would you?" Fine if he's upset about it; fine that you think, for whatever reason you do, it obvious that Drew's gone back on his word. It's no good being a little cry baby about it. That's the extent of my interest in the matter.
Everybody else I could take or leave.
All that being said, if Drew gets hurt again, this could actually work out for the Dodgers. He's a great player, but only when he's on the field. It's definitely a blow for our WS chances next year, though.
One sleeper replacement for Drew, depending of course on who Ned signs in the off-season, is the oft-injured Werth, who is supposed to be 100% this spring after some kind of specialized wrist surgery at the Mayo Clinic.
WWSH
WWSH
its the nature of the beast. you have to pay for talent.
if im the dodgers i let drew go. i use his 11 mill and spread it around and sign zito and schmidt
kemp can play rf
73 - Colletti seems to think that Kemp will be in Vegas for at least part of next season, which is probably a good call. (I say "probably" only because it's entirely possible that Kemp could change things dramatically with another good spring.)
I do not favor moving Loney to the outfield. This guy seems to have been born to be a first baseman; why waste that ability when there are corner outfielders to be had elsewhere? I certainly don't condone moving Loney to make room for Garciaparra. If Nomar wants to play the outfield or perhaps 3B, great. But Loney and Saenz (and in a pinch, Kent or Martinez) have 1B more than covered.
That baseball is a business is never more apparent than when Boras is involved. I'd like to see more teams ignore his clients but for one team to do so could be a big disadvantage.
Anywho, my take on Plaschke is the same as GB above: If you want to be upset, be upset at former general manager Paul DePodesta for giving Drew such a misguided quit clause in the first place. On second thought, give DePodesta a standing ovation. Plaschke in a nutshell.
And here's something that really makes me angry. I'm teaching persuasive writing to my seniors and stressing as much as I know how to avoid the passive voice. So please, Bill, think of the kids and just stop it. That is all.
Anyhow, sorry to lose DJ, but it seems to have dragged Jon out of his slump :)
I expect communication could have been better on all sides, but I don't have a lot of patience for the view that Drew or Boras did anything wrong here. I've had to change my mind in an embarrassing and public way before that I'm not ready to hang Drew with his prior statements.
And I've never understood why people feel its so far out of bounds for Boras to be so tough for his clients. I'm not saying he always wins for them, but often he seems to.
Drew will probably sign with the Yankees, and the 2007 Dodgers will end up record wise similar to the 2006 Braves.
I understand why Ned's upset. He knows a big piece of 2007 just left, and with that possibly his job security. He's one bad year from being out of a job, if the McCourts history is any indication.
I'd support a 1 or 2 month vacation for that fellow. His posting style brings down the level of discourse in this blog in my opinion.
same here
i'd forgaten bout him, i read that too.
I don't blame Drew for believing he was going to get more money. He will. My problem is the fact that he's been saying for a while that he had no desire to leave the Dodgers. If money was an issue, he should have said something along the lines of, "Well, I love playing for the Dodgers. I'm not sure what I'm going to decide, but I know I will make the best decision for my family" or something along those lines. Then it wouldn't have been such a shock. I think that's why so many people are mad, just because it contradicts what he said before. But as mentioned by others, this is a business and that's how it goes, right?
I like the idea now, though, of the fact that is now possible to get more young guys with playing exposure. So maybe this is a blessing in disguise?
Drew's durability questions always made me nervous.
Then he needs to sign a good free agent. He's good at that.
If he's not a DH next year, he'll make at least one trip to the DL.
The best sandwich in the world was invented by my brother back in 1965. Peanut butter and bacon on toast.
But that's not what he said...
Y'know, I still say the Dodgers should make a run at signing Frank Catalanotto. I really like him. And no, not someone who will replace Drew's numbers at all, but he's reliable at least, and will not be too expensive.
The Dodgers def. can't count on Werth next year, but he is a wild card in this equation - he has the talent that could make him a Drew at some point. Of course, he also has the brittle, injury prone nature that could also make him a Drew in the negative sense.
The world would be a better place if baseball teams refused to do business with Scott Boras.
just hearinm him talk calms me down.
That's what I call win/win. Okay, maybe just win.
St. Louis at the end of July. Ahh, that's the best time to visit! I remember when we flew out for my niece's Baptism in July and a lot of people had to stay in house that had no air conditioning.
I think the family almost descended into total anarchy because of the heat. I eventually checked into a hotel.
[82] my irony committee vote is for "somewhat ironic"
[82] my irony committee vote is for "somewhat ironic"
1. He wasn't a troublemaker, but IMHO he lacked "passion" for the game;
2. He led our team in OB%, HR and RBI, but seemed "soft" in the process (if there is such a thing as a "soft" 100 RBI guy;
3. He made "only" $11 mil but he was not a guy I wanted at bat with the game on the line - even though he did well in September (stats don't always tell the whole story).
Bottom line: I don't think Ned cared if JD stayed or left. I sure didn't! I also think we could do better than JD Drew (of course, we could also do worse).
Finally, there is a BIG HUGE difference between failing to communicate with a player you say you want to re-sign and not communicating with a guy who IS ALREADY SIGNED (whom you may just as soon loose)!
Never, Never set a precident of offering to re-negiotiate with a guy who is already signed and is represented by Bora$$$$!
Interesting theory, but it seems to me that the 30 GMs each are looking out just for themselves.
Why do guys like Jose Guillen keep finding jobs after all?
Now Ned re-signs Nomar, Loney plays right, problem solved. Any thoughts on this?
No other answer than selective memory. You're choosing to emphasize the negative in Drew's case.
Garciaparra, just to pick an example, also had good stats in clutch situations. And because he pumps his fist and flings his helmet when he crosses the plate on a home run, people tend to remember him better. I'm not saying that doesn't make him a more fun player than Drew, but I don't see how it makes him more valuable.
According to ESPN.com, in close and late situations, J.D. Drew's OPS of .931 ranked 28th in all of baseball (min. 75 PA). That means if you were distrubting the top performers in this category among all MLB teams, Drew would go in the first round.
And the bottom line: Clearly, Ned cared whether J.D. stayed or left.
I think what people are reacting to, at least in part, is the fear that Ned will make a really stupid move in order to fill the hole left by JD.
1. A long-term deal for Gary Matthews Jr.
2. Sending a truckload of prospects for one year of Vernon Wells.
Like I said on the last thread, there is hardly room to argue that the Dodgers in '07 will be weakened by Drew's move. For what he gave us offensively, $11 mil was a bargain in 2007 dollars. It might cost the Dodgers $15 million to replace it. So, either we'll do that, and be $4 million farther away from signing a Schmidt or an additional power hitter; or we won't and our offensive production will depend on someone like Loney or Kemp having a breakthrough season. We were in a much better position before yesterday.
The question is: If Boras told Colletti with time to spare that Drew was going to test the waters, but would not exercise the option if the Dodgers upped the contract to, say, $13.5 million, shouldn't Colletti have taken that deal?
"I once thought I had mono for an entire year. It turned out I was just really bored."
Also, Depo should be criticized, not credited, for the JD deal. The Dodgers took all the risk on that deal--if Drew broke down, the Dodgers were stuck with a significant contract. If Drew performed well, he could opt out, which he did.
Finally, I'm not impressed with Ned's sniveling, especially if as reported he got a heads up from Boras earlier this week.
As Jon said, if the club opts out it's okay, but if the player does, he's the bad guy?
Grow up, Ned. It's a business. And quit making yourself look bad to potential free agents.
I don't know, that's a good question. 11M for Drew's 2006 production is a very good deal. The most likely way to replace the production is to offer Bonds 16M (which is way more than the Gnats want to pay), but then you spend an extra 5M and lose out on defense.
But--and I know this sheer speculation--I don't think Drew himself will replicate his 2006 production because he's not playing for a contract next year. Extending Drew's contract past age 33 given his injury history probably would have been ill advised.
What Depo did was allowed JD to opt out before his contract became a drain on the team. I just wish he'd given it after the 3rd year, not the 2nd.
If you are interested in the "playing for a contract" theory of performance, you may wish to take a look at Phil Birnbaum's presentation from the last SABR convention about that subject.
http://tinyurl.com/y5blnj
It's in PowerPoint, so don't click on the link unless you have that installed.
To cut to the chase, Phil could not find any correlation between a player's "walk" year and increased performance. His study focused on the bigger free agents, not the roster filler type players who are free agents just about every year.
Any player that is signed to a multiyear contract can ruin that deal by getting hurt - that's nothing new. The fact that Drew could opt out of his just minimizes the risk of years 3-5 of the contract - which are the riskier years anyway.
It was never an ideal contract, but in a negotiation with a top free agent, you aren't going to get an ideal contract. The point is, the contract got the job done.
stats don't always tell the whole story
Depends on the story. If the story is performance on the field, well then yes, stats do tell the whole story. You just have to look at the most appropriate stats. On the other hand, if the story is "likeability" or "excitement," then mm is right: stats not only don't tell the whole story - they don't tell any of it. That's how awful players with consistently dirty jerseys can be loved while terrific players who are quiet and businesslike can be disdained. And that's a matter of taste - there's no point in arguing about who should be more popular. If you love Darin Erstad, great! Just admit that he's a below-average performer on the field. If you like JD Drew, fine! Just admit that he's about as exciting to watch as a box score.
As pennance Boras should be made to eat a hundred of these.
i like it.
So sayeth the WWL. Of course, "may have posted" is not exactly the Pentagon Papers, but hey, it's something.
Keith Law ranks Drew and Lugo among the top 10 free agents available. Interestingly, he ranks Zito 15th because he feels he is more of a 3rd or 4th starter.
I shall now go watch twenty minutes of Karl Dorrell marching up and down the sidelines as penance.
Don't worry about it. I'm used to it.
Also was looking at Ryan Church's stats. Is he availible? For a young CF he looks great on paper. But I stress the 'on paper' part since I've never seen him play.
It appears that the Hanshin Tigers will not allow lefthander Kei Igawa to use the posting system, Sports Nippon reported Thursday.
I should be more tolerant of people changing their mind because I am changing mine.
I have no problem with the opt out. My issue was whether Drew/Boras gave Ned advance notice that he had changed his mind. When the initial reports of the opt out broke, it appeared Ned had not been given a warning or a chance to retain Drew. It now appears that Boras approached Ned gave him a chance to renegotiate and Ned turned him down outright. Ned should not be mad. He had a good player at an under market price. He was given the opportunity to keep the player by paying him market price and chose not to. He is mad he lost out on a good deal. I'd be disappointed too but I wouldn't feel I got cheated.
As for Drew, if someone told me I could earn an additional $15 million, money that would take care of my kids, grandkids and great grandkids, money I could give to charity, money I could help my in-laws with, I'd do it too. The money will still be there long after the bitterness of this little controversy has died down.
Final point. Have to give Boras credit for seeing Drew's future. It was brilliant to insist on the opt-out 2 1/2 years ago which makes all this possible for JD. (Don't get me wrong I wouldn't mind seeing Boras take early retirement but you have to give credit where its due, even if grudgingly).
LF: Church
CF: Nook Logan
RF: I haven't a clue. Brandon Watson maybe?
That report is in direct contradiction to this report from the Mainichi Daily News.
http://tinyurl.com/v5qrn
The Dodgers got a great player for under market value 2/22. Drew/Boras get to enter free agency twice in the prime of Drew's career.
Thats good business for both sides.
Good for baseball.
one of the 4 is not like the other 3.
you do the math.
Theo sure knows how to spend money.
i agree that in the long run, this is the best for the dodgers. but it is a detriment to the teams 2007 success.
I personally think the Dodgers got the bad end of the deal. Drew had a good year last year, but was a non-factor the year before. That's 22 million for 35 home runs and 136 rbi. Which would be fine if it was during one season but it was over two.
I think that is one part of the equation that has been overlooked. If it was just a question of Drew wanting $3-5 million more per year for the next THREE years, than that is something the Dodgers should consider. However, I doubt that Boras/Drew want just a three-year deal--I am sure they are looking for another five-year deal, and frankly, as much as I think Drew is a fine player, I would not want him signed for five more years at $13-$15M per.
Richie Sexson
Carlos Beltran
Pedro Martinez
Adrian Beltre
Magglio Ordonez
Drew has been signifigantly better than Ordonez and Beltre, better than Martinez in terms of Wins Over Replacement, and made much less than Beltran. The only person who was clearly better was Sexson, but his back loaded contract will decrease his value in the coming years.
You can't just look at Drew's production in terms of home runs and RBI, you need to look at his on base percentage, his OPS, and his defense to get his real value.
Just for fun, players from that free agent class who have out performed Drew in terms of WARP, regardless of salary:
Beltran
Sexson
Jeff Kent
Carlos Delgado
Jermaine Dye
Derek Lowe
Let's say Drew gets $13 million a year in his next contract. That's an 18 percent raise. If you decided over the past month that you might be able to get an 18 percent raise if you left your job, would you turn it down?
Also, in the midst of Plaschke's expected column today, there was this: the Dodgers have let slip that they have grown tired of coddling Drew. If you felt the work atmosphere was turning sour on you, wouldn't that encourage you to leave?
Drew career .286/.393/.512 (plus defense)
Soriano career .280/.325/.510 (minus defense)
Plus Soriano gives you the sexy 41 SB's with the invisible but deadly 17 CS. So Drew's value is tied up in peripherals and Soriano's is in plain view on baseball cards and ESPN graphics. Soriano's downside is Beltre 2005/2006. Drew's downside if he plays is essentially his 2006 numbers.
Looking at his on base percentage and his OPS is fine but can we also place that in context of his games played?
What good is a high OPS if he only averaged 373 at bats per full season?
JD Drew is a good player. I've never argued that. But I will argue that he's "great".
:)
At least this job promises to have personal days.
And the library is closed tomorrow.
I'm crushed.
Considering the topic of discussion, shouldn't you instead be crunched?
Could DT pull strings and arrange for Boras to go hunting with VP Dick Cheney?
http://tinyurl.com/ygup9v
To assume that Drew wanted to leave the team rather than wanting more money was an assumption made to quickly.
In fact, IMO it sealed the deal for him leaving.
I realized Drew made comments that he wouldn't opt out however it should come as no suprise to the GM that this was a possibility. It appears to me that Colletti had no plan in place should this happen.
A lack of a plan is what continues to concern me with Ned Colletti and the Dodgers.
I've been thinking about this and now I'm not even sure I blame him for that. What's he supposed to say, in the middle of a pennant race, when asked if he's coming back? What's the answer to that, other than, "yes I'm absolutely coming back," that doesn't cause a major headache for everybody involved? Would that have been better for the team? If he gave Colletti a direct, additional, private assurance that he wouldn't opt out, then what he did is in any way morally suspicious. If he didn't, I don't think it is.
To me, it's less a test of moral fiber than an I.Q. test. You don't set yourself on fire for the entertainment of Bill Plaschke on grounds of principle.
If nothing was said privately between Colletti and Drew than, IMO, you can't hold Drew accountable for toeing the company line.
I tend to think he was worth a whole less than $11 million to the Dodgers, simply because he missed so many games. When you are counting a guy to be one of your best players and he misses as many games as he did, seems to me the extended effect on one's team is fairly large
My guess is that a strong OPS he posted in '05 doesn't come close to offsetting the negative impact of him being out of the lineup to the extent he was. Something to think about if one wants to evaluate his VORP/salaries for 2005-06 relative to those of other frontline or well-paid players.
In shorthand, I thought he was a subpar value for $11 million in 2005 and a good value for $11 miilion in 2006 (one small factor that I include in the evaulation for this year is that defensively, in the first half, it was clear that the surgical shoulder wasn't up to full strength).
I was dead wrong in year's past saying that Drew probably won't leave -- my premise was that the market wouldn't be enticing enough. Obviously Boras has good info. that Drew has generated value beyond $33 million.
I had predicted that the second year of his contract would be his best. We shall see.
Getting Drew 7-12 ABs in minor-league games across a mere 2-4 innings so that he didn't have to stand in the outfield was a pretty pro-active move -- the sort of thinking outside of the box that probably isn't typical among managers.
And even when the pressures were strong to keep playing Drew, Little was disciplined enough to buy him extra rest, piggybacking team travel dates with planned off day for Drew, even when the media was pushing for Little to cave.
I cannot prove that Little's usage factored into Drew playing as many games as it did, but that's what I believe. I think Little was good for Drew.
It's possible that Drew's next manager will be similarly protective, but I would be surprised if he is as protective.
Of course, if Drew goes to an AL club, which might be the better fit, performing as a DH could reduce the season's attrition.
Drew almost certainly will be better as a result of departing -- he'll get more money and perhaps won't encounter some of the resentment that appeared to be growing at the L.A. workplace. Although it won't surprise me to see Drew stay in the NL, going to the AL, where he could spell the team's regular DH, would serve him well.
As for the Dodgers, it's harder to see this providing immediate gratification, and the market being what it is, easy to see it being harmful, but I see potential benefits
This probably increases the chances the Dodgers will do all they can to develop/nurture Kemp, which pleases me.
The Dodgers also lose a Boras client. This has its advantages, and I am mindful that some teams have won World Series with a handful of Boras clients.
I also doubt that Drew would have given good returns on 3 years/$33 million in this situation. The injury cascade troubled me. I like how Little rested him, but I tend to think that when a star player is that high maintenance, it can create resenment within a clubhouse. Not a major factor over 1-2 years, but over 3-5, could have erroded some of Little's power within the clubhouse.
I fail to see how it's fallacious to take into account Drew's long injury history--injuries which are, btw, obviously chronic, and not only limited to the "freak" wrist injury. Sure, if Drew gets hurt for another team in the future, those circumstances are different, but that's like saying that past performance with regards to things like OBP is irrelevant to predicting future performance, simply because each situation is different. Surely we can make educated guesses about a baseball player's injury prospects based on past experience, and Drew's past experience can hardly be seen as a positive.
Is he worth 11 mil/yr IMHO for this season? Yes, because if he's on the field, the production is that solid. In this market, he probably will get more than the 33 mil remaining on the Dodger contract. But these are all calculated risks, risks that increase with age, and Drew might very well crater very, very fast, to such a degree that this might very well end up a blessing in disguise. I for one am not so sure Drew is going to be worth 11 mil/yr in 08 and 09, so him choosing to dump that obligation is no skin of my teeth.
BTW, I actually think Drew's injury problems can be decoupled from the whole debate over his moral qualities. The guy gets injured a lot--he's missed many games--that's a simple fact. He's missed those games in large part due to chronic knee problems. Last winter, he had shoulder surgery that inhibited his throwing for much of the season. He's not getting any younger. I for one don't know if Drew is an honorable man or not; I don't think I really care; I do know, though, that his achilles heel as a baseball player is his injury history.
WWSH
I hope you are right however there is a chance that Drew leaving will hurt our farm system. Colletti may trade away some prospects (like Kemp) for a bat to replace Drew. In addition, he may now feel even more inclined to sign Ramirez (which would block Laroche) or sign Nomar (which would block Loney).
I guess what I am saying is that this puts the Dodgers as major buyers this offseason. Colletti has already shown that he "overpays" with prospects in trades.
I think Little did probably help Drew out by resting him consistently, but with JD's chronic knee problems and then some, in the long view, it may just not matter much. Drew is about to turn 31; if he was banged up as he was in his prime, why should anyone think his health would actually improve? Yes, the wrist injury in 05 was a fluke, but his knees are a chronic problem, and he had shoulder surgery last winter. Big bats are scarce enough that teams will take a flier on him, but when should any team blindly follow the market rate?
WWSH
JD has amazing power - he routinely hits upper deck shots in batting practice and appears effortless in the process. He is a 5-tool player and there ain't many of those! He is also (as I have said before) devoid of passion about the game, or so it appears. He's a GOOD guy, doesn't get in trouble, doesn't stir things up and goes about his business, but give me a David Eckstien in a tight situation (i.e, a guy who playes the game with ALL he has).
Part of the problem I have with JD Drew is that the reality never lives up to the expecations. He has Mickey Mantle ability-but he is JD Drew!
He also misses a lot of games - his stats depict him as the #5 RF in baseball, but that's when he plays. He missed a lot of games and I don't see that getting any better as he gets older.
He is soul-less IMHO! Give me a guy who cares.... or at least looks like he cares!
I think Ned and his staff had planned the offseason WITH JD Drew being part of the team and then were thrown a curve at the last minute.
Give me Luis Gonzalez at $20 mil for 2 years any day over JD Drew at $33 mil for 3 years!
I was excited when we first got JD, but his lack of passion for the game is not a good thing for a team.
Does anyone here think James Loney could put up very similar stats in RF for about $10.5 mil less?
Jon, You are the Stats King, but the STATS certainly didn't support the 1988 Dodgers winning the World Series or for that matter, the 2006 Cardinals. A computer-generated game would have had several other teams beating them. That's the problem with "STATS" - they cannot measure the power of the human spirit!
David Eckstien - MVP? Go figure that!
Wait, what was the question?
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