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At Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer has a post analyzing "All Things Boston," including his thoughts about the J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo signings. Among other things, it elaborates on Nate Silver's negative projection in Baseball Prospectus for Drew.
Drew and Lugo figure to be major upgrades over Trot Nixon and Alex Gonzalez. Whether using Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) or Win Shares, it appears as if the newly acquired duo could be worth as many as five or six additional wins next year. Although Drew and Lugo are on the wrong side of 30 (both turned 31 in November), they are actually ever so slightly younger on a combined basis than their predecessors.
Peter Gammons likened Drew to former Boston All-Star Fred Lynn in his ESPN Insider column last Saturday. I'm on board with that comparison. Lefthanded-hitting outfielders both, talented, laid back, and injury prone. While neither fulfilled the huge expectations placed upon them after their outstanding college careers and sizzling debuts in the majors, Lynn was one of the more valuable players in his day and Drew has been a productive force as well. ...
As Silver points out, the move to the AL could also have a negative impact on Drew's homers in 2007. Perhaps, but it is important to point out that three of the four competitor ballparks in the AL East are friendly to LHB in terms of HR. Yankee Stadium had a LHB-HR park index of 118 from 2004-06, Rogers Centre (Toronto) 116, and Tropicana Field (Tampa Bay) 105. Only Oriole Park at Camden Yards (96) suppresses home runs for LHB. The NL West, on the other hand, is more balanced with Bank One Ballpark (Arizona) and Coors Park (Colorado) heavily favoring HR by LHB and AT&T Park (San Francisco) and Petco Park (San Diego) hurting LHB-HR by a similar degree.
It really is about expectations with Drew. I can't say it enough. He is not the most valuable player, just a valuable player.
1. It's only for three years. I really like Ned's philosophy with Furcal and Schmidt of overpaying a bit to get them to sign shorter contracts.
2. It probably eliminates a Manny transaction, which means all the kids stay here.
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