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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

How To Avoid Getting Your Arm Chopped Off by the Rumor Mill
2007-11-14 08:55
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Or, How To Survive the Hot Stove League Without Getting Burned

(Originally published October 10, 2006)

1) Rumors are not facts.

2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news - whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media has decided).

3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it.

4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless.

5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge.

6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue.

7) Many are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously.

- Your Friendly Hot Stove Curmudgeon

Update: I'm not telling you not to have fun with the Hot Stove. Have fun! I'm just saying that from my experience here, people take the rumors way too seriously, discussion gets heated, and the fun goes away. And that's what I'd like to avoid.

I'm adding:

8) Hometown papers will often inflate the value of their own players, either on their own initative or that of their sources, and print particularly unrealistic trade packages.

Comments (152)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-11-14 09:18:06
1.   Disabled List
This isn't really a rumor, but nor is it hard information. Just another Dodger tidbit I'm passing along. From John Donovan:

General manager Ned Colletti has confirmed that the Dodgers are looking for a centerfielder, with the thought of moving Juan Pierre to left. This comes just one year after Colletti signed Pierre to a five-year, $44 million deal. Either Colletti saw this coming and planned on it all along (unlikely), or he recognized his mistake and is moving quickly to correct it. Either way, that's too much to pay an outfielder with no power (one home run in his last 872 plate appearances) and a miserable on-base percentage (.331 last year).

2007-11-14 09:22:18
2.   fanerman
And Andre Ethier (or Matt Kemp) will be out of a job.
2007-11-14 09:23:11
3.   underdog
What about the rumor woodchipper? Look where it got Steve Buscemi in Fargo.

My favorites are when people quote some Fox Sports or AOL blogger who has no more insider info than we do, basically making up some farfetched rumor and then freaking out about it.
--

Donovan's analysis at the end is right; center or left, he should be a 4th outfielder. It still amazes me how surprised Colletti now seems by Pierre's abilities and lack thereof, when he was exactly what they should've expected, but we've covered that question ad nauseum here already.

2007-11-14 09:28:29
4.   D4P
Either Colletti saw this coming and planned on it all along (unlikely), or he recognized his mistake and is moving quickly to correct it

Possible Explanation #3: He recognized his mistake and is moving quickly to compound it.

2007-11-14 09:28:54
5.   jasonungar07
Ned has said that his biggest failure last offseason was not getting a middle of the order bat..So I think he will do whatever it takes (scary thought) to get one. Of course we all belive in Kemp, Loney etc to be our middle of the order bats but Ned has to see things to belive them...like Pierre.
2007-11-14 09:32:08
6.   Sam DC
For folks interested in Andruw Jones, Chris at Capitol Punishment has written a coupled of detailed posts on Jones' performance and value, looking in particular at the timing and impact of his injuries last year and whether his 2007 performance was a fluke.

http://dcbb.blogspot.com/

2007-11-14 09:36:54
7.   fanerman
I can't believe Colletti doesn't realize the solution to our power bat problem is to replace Pierre and not Ethier/Kemp. I suppose there's still time for me to be proven wrong about him.
2007-11-14 09:39:33
8.   old dodger fan
From ESPN.com

The New York Yankees have been discussing a deal with their former All-Star third baseman Alex Rodriguez -- but the team says a deal can only move forward if his agent, Scott Boras, is not part of the talks, the New York Daily News reported Wednesday.


According to the report, a high-ranking Yankees source said the team is willing to bring back A-Rod on a below-market contract that would make up for the $21 million subsidy from the Texas Rangers that the Yankees lost when A-Rod opted out of the final three years of his contract -- despite team comments indicating he had burned his bridges by opting out.

But any such deal can't take place with Boras at the table, a Yankee source said, according to the report.

"We will not negotiate with Scott Boras," the source told the Daily News. "He cannot be in the room."

2007-11-14 09:43:18
9.   Bob Timmermann
8
Why don't the Yankees just take over the Administration Building at Columbia too and hand over a list of non-negotiable demands?

How can you force a player to negotiate without his paid representative? A man who is authorized by MLBPA to negotiate contracts as an agent.

I wonder if the Yankees front office, if given the chance to operate as judges, would suspend the Fourth, Fifth, and Seventh amendments to the Constitution.

And maybe the Third while they're at it.

2007-11-14 09:49:08
10.   njr
Well,

They may have heard one thing we said at Dodgerthoughts day:

http://www.dailynews.com/ci_7455418

2007-11-14 09:49:48
11.   greenchris
Just read on espn insider that the Padres are contemplating a 3 team deal that would bring them Matt Kemp. Article is in the SD Tribune...does anyone have any additional info.
2007-11-14 09:50:55
12.   Sam DC
8 What children.
2007-11-14 09:52:25
13.   Bumsrap
8 - I assume you are providing examples to support Jon's reminder up top.
2007-11-14 09:52:46
14.   fanerman
9 The Yankees just seem very bitter to me, refusing to speak to someone, much the way kids can be.

Homer: Marge, since I'm not talking to Lisa, could you please ask her to pass me the syrup?
Marge: (sighs) Please pass your father the syrup, Lisa.
Lisa: Bart, tell Dad I'll only pass the syrup if it won't be used on any meat products…
Bart: You dunking your sausages in that syrup, Homeboy?
Homer: Marge, tell Bart I just want to drink a nice glass of syrup like I do every morning…

And so on and so forth.

2007-11-14 09:54:29
15.   Bob Timmermann
10
From that article:
"Some nights, there were fewer than less than 50 passengers aboard, said Camille Johnston, Dodgers spokeswoman."

I'm hoping Camille Johnston didn't say "fewer than less than" especially since the guy asking the question is a retired English teacher from my high school.

2007-11-14 09:54:44
16.   fanerman
11 Is that another example to support Jon's reminder? I refuse to acknowledge the thought of Matt Kemp in a Padre uniform.
2007-11-14 09:54:47
17.   Kevin Lewis
Thanks for the cool headed thinking, Jon
2007-11-14 09:56:20
18.   Bob Timmermann
11
No details are provided:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20071114-9999-1s14padres.html
2007-11-14 09:59:28
19.   Eric Stephen
Back to the boring old regular font! :)

T.J. Simers actually has a non-horrible article today! It's relatively free of cheap shots and stupid nicknames.

2007-11-14 10:00:21
20.   Robert Daeley
11 I'm contemplating getting a pony for Christmas, but I don't think it's going to happen.
2007-11-14 10:01:16
21.   Xeifrank
11. I believe it was touched upon on the previous thread a little bit.
vr, Xei
2007-11-14 10:02:11
22.   ToyCannon
6
Thanks for the link Sam. I am in the same camp that feels his season was due to health issues and not PED's or declining skills.
The problems as he stated is if the shoulder/elbow will continue to be problems or if rest will take care of them. We all know how Shawn Green's shoulder sapped him of his power and how he was never able to recover the stroke that gave him the Dodger single season home run record.
2007-11-14 10:02:47
23.   Jon Weisman
20 - Exactly.
2007-11-14 10:04:59
24.   Humma Kavula
8 Ridiculous. And possibly should be ignored, with Jon's reminder.

Still, if true -- and that's a very big if -- it's quite insane.

I would be highly insulted if somebody offered to do business with me, but only if my chosen representative -- who had done very well by me -- was not part of the discussion. I would tell them where they could put their offer.

2007-11-14 10:07:17
25.   Bob Timmermann
20
If he gets a pony, then I want TWO ponies.

And a goat.

2007-11-14 10:08:14
26.   Xeifrank
25. How about a create full of peaches and a case of diet pepsi?
vr, Xei
2007-11-14 10:09:03
27.   D4P
I have no problem with the Yankees asking that ARod's agent not be present.

ARod and his agent are free to refuse the request, and I'm sure they will.

2007-11-14 10:10:38
28.   kinbote
i agree with the overall assessment that this offseason has a decidedly bizzaro world feel to it. among the ideas we're potentially being asked to swallow:

1. we need more pitching
2. juan pierre is a solution in leftfield
3. laroche is not ready
4. kemp is the next milton bradley
5. torre is the savior
6. m. cabrera is worth 4 players
7. billingsley is expendable
8. lowe and kent are good clubhouse guys
9. veterans are better than youngsters
10. batting .330 with power and potential to improve is not really worth celebrating

as far as i'm concerned, let's just sign andruw jones and hang it all . . .

2007-11-14 10:10:47
29.   old dodger fan
24 Further down in the article it says AROD approached the Yankees thru a 3rd party.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3109894

2007-11-14 10:11:03
30.   Bob Timmermann
26
I'll drink the Diet Pepsi and take the peaches to a food bank.
2007-11-14 10:11:10
31.   fanerman
26 Airplane tickets to Delaware?
2007-11-14 10:12:03
32.   D4P
In fact, I think it's a brilliant stroke by the Yanks. They get to indicate that they're interested in ARod, knowing full well that their request will be denied.

They have nothing to lose. Boras, on the other hand, will look self-centered and domineering by refusing to allow ARod to talk to the Yanks without him.

Fantastic.

2007-11-14 10:13:32
33.   D4P
Can one of you baseball-researchy types teach me how to look up the following information (so I can do it for myself in the future):

The greatest number of PAs (or ABs) for a leftfielder in a single season with zero HRs.

2007-11-14 10:13:38
34.   Humma Kavula
32 I just harbor ill will against the Steinbrenners because they go by diminuitives of the same name.
2007-11-14 10:15:07
35.   Gr-ool
14 Much as Colletti was bitter with the same agent not so long ago.
2007-11-14 10:15:09
36.   Jon Weisman
33 - I did this once already. You might check the archives.
2007-11-14 10:15:19
37.   Sam DC
They have nothing to lose. Boras, on the other hand, will look self-centered and domineering by refusing to allow ARod to talk to the Yanks without him.

I think it makes the Yankees look insecure and scared.

2007-11-14 10:15:37
38.   Jon Weisman
34 - "This is my brother Darryl, and this is my other brother Darryl."
2007-11-14 10:16:08
39.   Bob Timmermann
33
Spike Shannon had 589 ABs in 1906 while playing left for St. Louis and New York (both NL) with nary a homer.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/shannsp01.shtml

2007-11-14 10:16:57
40.   Humma Kavula
38 Absolutely. They should be on a situation comedy -- "Selig" -- about a lonely, befuddled baseball commissioner and the crazy kooks that surround him.
2007-11-14 10:17:11
41.   Sam DC
39 But at least his name was Spike.
2007-11-14 10:17:25
42.   D4P
39
I asked you to teach me how to fish, but you just gave me the fish instead.
2007-11-14 10:17:28
43.   regfairfield
33 Spike Shannon, 1906 - 684 PA

You can get the all time leader free using Baseball Reference's play index.

2007-11-14 10:19:29
44.   D4P
I think it makes the Yankees look insecure and scared

I think it makes the Yankees look like they're calling the shots and can leave ARod if he won't play by their rules.

They've got hand. (Whether they're gonna need it or not remains to be seen)

2007-11-14 10:19:31
45.   Bob Timmermann
37
As I said above, it makes the Yankees look like they are trying to cheat Alex Rodriguez.

Alex Rodriguez is a professional baseball player. He is very good at hitting home runs and stuff like that.

Scott Boras is a professional negotiator. He knows the ins and outs of contracts worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

I'm not letting a guy who has a high school education negotiate a contract when I can get someone who knows what's he doing to do it for me.

If Sam invited me to DC by handing me a subpoena, I'd certainly get an attorney no matter what the topic was.

2007-11-14 10:20:27
46.   Bob Timmermann
42
Was it a good fish?
2007-11-14 10:21:59
47.   Jon Weisman
42 - Actually, I just gave you the bait and the pole, and neither taught you how to fish nor gave you the fish.
2007-11-14 10:22:27
48.   Kevin Lewis
The San Diego article just offers a little blip about the Matt Kemp thing with no support or any details on how that would even happen.

Jon,

I doubly apologize for my comment earlier, and I make a new commitment to read the rumor junk first hand before I comment.

2007-11-14 10:22:45
49.   old dodger fan
33 Of the 10 NL left fielders who qualified for the batting title in 2007 the lowest number of HR's was 15 which was a tie between our own LuGo and Ryan Church. I know that is not what you asked but I thought it was interesting.
2007-11-14 10:22:57
50.   Kevin Lewis
Bob just threw the fish at him
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-11-14 10:23:12
51.   D4P
43
"The full report is visible only to Baseball-Reference PI subscribers"

it makes the Yankees look like they are trying to cheat Alex Rodriguez

Except that he is fully capable of refusing their offer. They can't "cheat" him without his complete approval and knowledge, in which case he wouldn't be getting cheated.

2007-11-14 10:23:12
52.   Humma Kavula
45 I like the new Bob!
2007-11-14 10:25:44
53.   fanerman
Good strategy or not, I find the Yankees move to be rather petty.

If Pierre ended up moving to LF, it would be a little sadistically fun to watch him "chase" history.

2007-11-14 10:25:56
54.   DodgerBakers
19 Hooray for Arial! A close relative of Helvetica which is celebrating 50 years of glory!
2007-11-14 10:25:57
55.   Bob Timmermann
I believe that the Yankees could only negotiate with Alex Rodriguez without Scott Boras in the room. They can't deny him the right to have his agent with him under the terms of the CBA.

Players went on strike for the right to have representation. This isn't the 1950s where Walter O'Malley or Buzzie Bavasi would refuse to even acknowledge a player's agent.

2007-11-14 10:26:20
56.   D4P
The other aspect of the Yankee story is that it shows that they're (predictably) concerned about replacing ARod's production in the lineup and/or finding a better option at 3B than Betemit.

If they're gonna break their word and come groveling back to ARod, I don't blame them for not wanting to have to face Boras after promising they wouldn't. Not that I respect their flip-flopping.

2007-11-14 10:26:26
57.   fanerman
53 That should be Yankees' (unless it's supposed to be Yankees's).
2007-11-14 10:30:48
58.   jasonungar07
http://tinyurl.com/2pkgwq

good stuff for a change

2007-11-14 10:31:58
59.   regfairfield
51 You still get number one and number 134 to the end.
2007-11-14 10:32:33
60.   fanerman
58 Is that what the Minotaur really looks like? Or is that just an artist's depiction?
2007-11-14 10:33:01
61.   Robert Daeley
Even assuming this alleged John Le Carré-esque communication between A-Rod and the Yankees is for real, I imagine A-Rod could and would bring representation with him. It just couldn't be Boras.
2007-11-14 10:35:33
62.   Bob Timmermann
61
True, Boras has a lot of staff and he obviously represents more players than he can physically be present for negotiations.

Then all the employee has to do is just get on his cell phone and say, "Hey, Scott, the Yankees offered X dollars for Y years?"

2007-11-14 10:36:30
63.   LAT
Add another quality 3B to the growing supply. Arod may have picked the wrong year to opt out.

http://tinyurl.com/24u8fu

2007-11-14 10:38:21
64.   LAT
To the extent we need a 3B I'm glad its a good market for them. I would hate to be looking for a starting catcher this year. Just ask the Mets who will over pay for whatever they get.
2007-11-14 10:40:33
65.   Sam DC
63 It is an enormously complicated environment for 3B deals this year, with so many different sorts of teams and players out there. Really fascinating.
2007-11-14 10:40:45
66.   regfairfield
63 We may have actually found fair value for Juan Pierre. .265/.331/.398 last year, still owed 39 million dollars until 2010.
2007-11-14 10:43:54
67.   Humma Kavula
66 Here's a question for somebody who has been paying more attention than I have:

Is this statement true or false: Scott Rolen hits well when he's healthy, but lately, isn't often healthy.

2007-11-14 10:44:41
68.   Jon Weisman
48 - You guys don't need to apologize - I'm just trying to look out for you so you don't get overanxious. :)
2007-11-14 10:47:05
69.   Kevin Lewis
63

See! At least STL is saying positive things about Rolen in the article. This is what Ned needs to be doing about anyone who is possibly on the trading block.

2007-11-14 10:47:41
70.   MMSMikey
Please Ned, dont do it.

Cabrera to L.A.?
Nov 14 - It's looking more and more like Miguel Cabrera will be playing in Southern California next year, with the Dodgers and Angels as the front-runners to land the third baseman in a trade, The Palm Beach Post reports.

Florida's goal is to complete a trade at baseball's winter meetings in early December, the newspaper reports.

The Marlins are believed to be asking the Angels for second baseman Howie Kendrick and pitching prospect Nick Adenhart along with another pitcher and an outfielder.

The Dodgers reportedly would have to give up four players from a group that includes pitcher Chad Billingsley, pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, third baseman Andy LaLoche, first baseman James Loney and outfielder Matt Kemp.

2007-11-14 10:50:25
71.   Sam DC
69 I find that really frustrating too.
2007-11-14 10:50:38
72.   Kevin Lewis
70

Another example for the original post?

2007-11-14 10:51:20
73.   Terry A
66 The difference: Scott Rolen is a good baseball player who's rarely healthy. Juan Pierre is, well, always healthy.
2007-11-14 10:51:27
74.   Bob Timmermann
This is from the Article IV of the Collective Bargaining Agreement for MLB.

If the Association has notified the Office of the Commissioner that a
Player has designated a certified Player Agent or Agents to act on his
behalf for the purposes described in this Article IV, no Club may negotiate
or attempt to negotiate an individual salary and/or Special
Covenants to be included in a Uniform Player's Contract with any
Player Agent(s) other than such Player Agent(s).
A Club may require a Player's physical presence only once during contract
negotiations. This limitation shall not apply to telephone conference
calls, at reasonable times, with a Player and his certified Player
Agent. A Player required to be physically present during negotiations
shall be entitled to be paid by the Club for round-trip first-class transportation
and first-class hotel costs.

I'm not a lawyer nor do I play one on TV.

2007-11-14 10:55:32
75.   Humma Kavula
When McCourt decides to sell, maybe we should just buy the Dodgers:

http://www.salon.com/sports/col/kaufman/2007/11/14/wednesday/

2007-11-14 10:56:41
76.   SG6
Maybe Boras will ask Tom Cruise to act on his behalf? Tom certainly knows the drill: Show Me The Money!
2007-11-14 10:57:32
77.   fanerman
75 If "we" = Dodger Thoughts, I'm in (provided I win the lotto). If "we" = entire Dodger fanbase, no way. I shudder to think all those internet message board Dodger fans would do if they had control of the team.
2007-11-14 10:57:37
78.   regfairfield
73 Scott Rolen was a good ball player. Now, not so much.
2007-11-14 11:00:16
79.   LAT
I believe the Yanks offered A-Rod $234M. Now they say they would bring him back but require a $21M discount to off set the Texas subsidy. That means its $213M. I don't know how many years we're talking about but assuming its 8-10, Frank should jump at matching that offer. Andruw Jones or Tori Hunter will cost you $17M per. Arod is worth $5M per year more than those two. He is worth it in terms of on the field production and people in the seats production. Jones nor Hunter will bring more people out the the Ravine.
2007-11-14 11:00:43
80.   D4P
74
So, Boras needn't be present, and the Yankees can only require ARod to present once.
2007-11-14 11:01:18
81.   Humma Kavula
77 I'm pretty sure that Jon doesn't want that kind of responsibility, but yes, I meant we-as-in-DT.
2007-11-14 11:02:20
82.   Terry A
Another little-known passage found in the CBA:

"Before beginning real work, every man should take mild doses of physic to work on the bowels."

2007-11-14 11:02:49
83.   Bob Timmermann
80
The Yankees either want Rodriguez to fire Boras or have one of Boras's representatives come.

Or they just want to drive up the price.

2007-11-14 11:03:36
84.   fanerman
82 I thought I heard that line in Sports Night.
2007-11-14 11:04:29
85.   D4P
83
Nothing wrong with that. Again, ARod is free to reject their terms and look elsewhere, just as he did when he decided to opt out.
2007-11-14 11:07:20
86.   Terry A
84 - That's where Don Fehr got it.
2007-11-14 11:20:42
87.   RobertoBaly
I know some of you want Pierre out. But seriously, is it possible ? With a huge contract, who is going to want Pierre ? I'm afraid that we are stuck with him. Unless we trade him and agree to pay some of his money.
2007-11-14 11:22:45
88.   old dodger fan
87 Just because you keep him does not mean you have to start him.
2007-11-14 11:23:10
89.   fanerman
87 We want Pierre out the way the Padres want Matt Kemp and the way Bob wants a pony.
2007-11-14 11:24:49
90.   Penarol1916
85. Actually, there is something wrong with that. What the Yankees are alleged to have done is illegal tampering in trying to get ARod have different representation. I also don't understand how you read 74. as allowing Boras to not be present, it specifically states that the club can only negotiate with the player's specified agent. I never would have thought that D4P would be an apologist for management and denigrate labor.
2007-11-14 11:25:59
91.   old dodger fan
Eric Wedge and Bob Melvin are Managers of the Year
2007-11-14 11:31:23
92.   D4P
90
no Club may negotiate or attempt to negotiate an individual salary and/or Special Covenants to be included in a Uniform Player's Contract with any Player Agent(s) other than such Player Agent(s).

This does not say that the player's agent has to be present, it just says that if you're gonna negotiate with an agent, it has to be the player's agent. This does not preclude negotiating directly with the player.

Plus, I'm not an apologist for management in general. Baseball is different from "the real world" in at least two important ways.

1. The Little Guy in baseball makes 300 hundred something thousand a year, and once you've been around a while, you make a lot more than that, even if you suck (e.g. Brett Tomko, etc.). The Little Guy in the real world makes significantly less money, sometimes in the 4 figures.

2. In baseball, we root for the team. It's nice if the individuals do well, but that's a secondary concern. In the real world, we care about individuals, not so much the corporations and businesses they work for.

2007-11-14 11:31:28
93.   tsundstrom
Does anyone else find the whole hot stove season a horrible and frightening experience? I just hope other fans of teams are constanly worrying and cringing in fear like most of us are at the sounds of some of these reports. Thanks for keeping me entertained during this day long training session at work!

Thomas

2007-11-14 11:34:21
94.   goofus
I think this is maybe how we ended up with Pierre: Flanders was feeling his oats (after all, he's a big boy GM now) and got in a friendly game of 'chicken' with his ex-boss, Sabean. Sabean flinched first; accident or by design, he screwed the Dodgers. I'm sure this is on his personal victory list.
2007-11-14 11:36:20
95.   LAT
83. I think by requiring the discount they are trying to drive the price down.
2007-11-14 11:36:37
96.   RobertoBaly
88 Oh yeah right, we are going to keep a $ 44 million dollar contract on the bench. The Dodgers won't do that.
2007-11-14 11:36:38
97.   old dodger fan
93 I feel like I own a truck that has a lot of very valuable stuff in it and it is being driven by someone I fear does not know how to drive. I hope I am wrong and he is actually a good driver but he had an accident last year (JP) that still makes me nervous. It makes what should be an enjoyable time a nerve wracking experience. If he can just deliver my cargo to Vero Beach next Spring intact I will be ever so happy.
2007-11-14 11:36:40
98.   Penarol1916
92. The way I read it, it does, as long as the player has already designated an agent. And what the Yankees are doing is still tampering. Once you start with this encouraging mostly poorly educated guys to negotiate their own contract, you start down a very slippery slope where those that produce the income are severely exploited.
2007-11-14 11:36:59
99.   fanerman
93 It's frightening when you trust your (and DT's) player evaluating skills more than you trust your GM's.
2007-11-14 11:37:33
100.   Marty
If D4P uses his fish wisely, he could end up with some tasty corn.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-11-14 11:38:46
101.   old dodger fan
96 If Ned feels his job is on the line and he needs to win now and Torre knows the expectations that came with his hiring and his contract and he had nothing to do with the JP signing maybe we can put the best 8 on the field.
2007-11-14 11:40:40
102.   D4P
98
I guess we read it differently.

There's pretty much no way ARod will negotiate without Boras, and I'm sure the Yankees know that. Plus, even if he did, it's not like he'd be dumb enough to sign for a million bucks a year or something.

2007-11-14 11:40:46
103.   tsundstrom
99. Absolutely. Although honestly, as Jon has pointed out, so much of it is speculation on the part of other teams and their beat writers...it doesn't necessarily mean anything is happening with Kemp for example. I think we get it more than other teams because we have so much talent on the farm.

Thomas

2007-11-14 11:44:57
104.   bhsportsguy
93 I really don't because, one, there is nothing I can do about it, two, more importantly, especially now, anyone can write anything and get out there as a rumor so until actual names for both sides (the three team deal with the Padres is a perfect example), you really can't get concerned and three, it keeps baseball in the forefront for the next few months until pitchers and catchers report.
2007-11-14 11:53:08
105.   LogikReader
70

Thats seems outrageous. I'll become a Giant fan before I ever see that deal come to fruition.

2007-11-14 11:58:41
106.   goofus
63. LAT
Add another quality 3B to the growing supply. Arod may have picked the wrong year to opt out.

No problem; Pierre and Nomar. That just might fly...

2007-11-14 12:04:24
107.   regfairfield
105 My source within the Dodger organization says that the Dodgers will get Cabrera for Justin Orenduff and a player to be named later.
2007-11-14 12:06:00
108.   old dodger fan
107 Wow-I just read the same thing on ESPN not 5 seconds after you posted it.
2007-11-14 12:06:16
109.   Kevin Lewis
105

See 0

Point 7

2007-11-14 12:06:32
110.   regfairfield
108 Two sources makes it a fact.
2007-11-14 12:10:24
111.   Humma Kavula
107 and a player to be named later

I heard it was to be a play*a* to be named later, and it's rumored that the Dodgers will have to throw in Jay-Z.

2007-11-14 12:11:42
112.   fanerman
110 111 I'm totally pumped by that deal! Can't wait til it's official.
2007-11-14 12:12:20
113.   dzzrtRatt
58 Flip down the story linked there and there's link to an alleged video of the Minotaur, not just pitching, but actually talking.

It's like that film clip of Sasquatch!

Minotaur is a humble creature. Talks about the inspiration he gets from Scott Elbert, and that Billingsley is the "role model" for all the minor league Dodger pitchers.

He also looks like a kid in my son's drama class -- except younger.

2007-11-14 12:14:52
114.   bigcpa
Fun with Bill James 2008 projections:

LaRoche .275/.367/.458 19 HR
Lowell    .282/.349/.459 17 HR

2007-11-14 12:20:43
115.   Xeifrank
114. I have all the Dodger hitters Bill James and CHONE projections up over at DodgerSims. Still waiting for Zips, Marcel and PECOTA. BJ projections are all higher than CHONE projections are. vr, Xei
2007-11-14 12:21:45
116.   LAT
108. Link? I could'nt find on ESPN
2007-11-14 12:22:48
117.   D4P
115
First of all, I don't know what "CHONE" is.

Second of all, why are its predictions consistently pessimisticker than those of Bill James?

2007-11-14 12:23:55
118.   fanerman
Do you think if Ned saw the projections for these players, he'd believe them?
2007-11-14 12:24:27
119.   fanerman
115 Is CHONE in some way related to Mr. Figgy?
2007-11-14 12:24:35
120.   old dodger fan
116 Sorry. Complete sarcasm and a clear rule 7 violation. Won't happen again.
2007-11-14 12:25:29
121.   dzzrtRatt
Hopeful hypothesis on Pierre:

In the Grady Little years, Colletti could say, "I want to see that little speed demon out there 162 games. He's the catalyst!"

And Grady would say, "Yes, boss." No matter what he thought.

Next season, assuming we haven't traded away every other possible outfielder, Torre might not go along with the idea of Pierre in left field every game. If he's got Kemp, Young, Ethier, Pierre and, say, Andruw Jones to pick from, I don't know how Ned can force him to play the least capable player day in and day out. Torre has benched players earning 50 percent more than Pierre and not blinked an eye.

Wouldn't it be somewhat unusual for a guy of Colletti's relatively insecure status in baseball's upper echelon to force a guy with Torre's credentials to play someone just because of money or an inexplicable affection for him? Colletti might be a GM for one more year of his life. Torre's going to the Hall of Fame.

If Torre falls in love with Pierre like Colletti has, my scenario won't occur. But I don't think Torre's succeeded to the degree he has by squinting his eyes and pretending a bad player is a good player.

Colletti might have set a PVL trap...for himself!

2007-11-14 12:28:23
122.   natepurcell
CHONE is one pessimistic projection system.

The ZIPs should be up any day now. The last team he did was Minn Twins and that was on Monday and he is going in reverse ABC order.

2007-11-14 12:28:36
123.   regfairfield
121 Left fielder Tony Womack. First baseman Miguel Cairo. It's worked out fine for him.
2007-11-14 12:30:41
124.   Humma Kavula
115

Interesting stuff. Some questions:

1. James Loney, 778 OPS? When he hast OPSed over 900 in a full season's worth of ML at-bats? Okay.

2. Both James and CHONE figure Furcal to have an OBP roughly around what he usually does, but slugging closer to his career average than what he's done the last three of the past five years. Is this likely -- that his power will come back somewhat but not entirely?

3. That is a wide range between Ethier and James on both Kemp (70 points of OPS!) and Ethier (60 points!). To what is this wide range attributed? Why is it easier to get agreement on a player like Martin, who has similar service time, than on Kemp/Ethier?

2007-11-14 12:31:21
125.   ToyCannon
I've always found the BJ projections to be a tad bit optimistic when it comes to players with little major league history.

Until Pecota and Baseball HQ chip in I don't pay much attention to the projections.

I only use the BJ projections when they help me make a point I'm trying to make:)

2007-11-14 12:33:05
126.   natepurcell
Anyone have a link handy to BJ's 2007 predictions for the Dodgers?
2007-11-14 12:38:55
127.   Bluebleeder87
people take the rumors way too seriously

I'm guilty of that, specially if you don't like the rumor.

2007-11-14 12:42:21
128.   old dodger fan
Does anyone do a post-season analysis of the various projections to see who is most accurate?
2007-11-14 12:43:25
129.   ssjames
126 As 115 stated he has the Bill James projections on his Dodgers Sims website. After looking them over for a second, the one that completely shocks me is that both BJ and CHONE is Nomar, who both project to have a relatively decent bounce back year, and to post a mid to high .700s OPS. I just can't see that happening with his clearly declining skill set.
2007-11-14 12:46:31
130.   natepurcell
129

He has 2008 projections up. I want to see the 2007 ones to compare to what actually happened in reality.

2007-11-14 12:48:56
131.   Wilbert Robinson
129 I think Nomar's goal is to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award every other year.
2007-11-14 12:52:05
132.   ssjames
Googling it brought up a Toycannon post from last year, which including the following projections for Dodgers hitters:

Bill James Hitting projections. He loves our kids but history has shown that BJ's projections for kids with < one year of service are rosy.
HR/AVG/OB/Slug/OPS
M Anderson 6/261/320/400/720
Betemit 14/268/331/443/774
Ethier 17//306/355/466/833
Furcal 13/287/356/418/774
Nomar 17/304/364/504/868
Kemp 20/311/365/503/868
Kent 23/286/366/487/853
LaRoche 18/287/373/462/835
Loney 11/305/360/460/820
Martin 9/288/375/425/799
Pierre 2/299/346/373/719
Werth 12/249/336/427/763

2007-11-14 12:54:34
133.   dzzrtRatt
123 Womack played 108 games in his only Yankee season, then got traded. Evidently, he was the designated fill-in for a bunch of old outfielders who needed rest.

Cairo played 81 games in '06 and was released. He was resigned and played 54 games and was released again.

If Torre uses Pierre like that, that would work for me.

2007-11-14 13:06:21
134.   ToyCannon
129
Just want to get this straight.
In the 1st half of 2006, Nomar carried the team and was everything anyone could have hoped for from 1st base including his defense.
In the 2nd half of 2006, Nomar was terrible and other then a few memorable home runs in September everyone would agree that he hurt the team more then helped.
A lot of people pointed to the 2nd half numbers as the reason why Ned should not have signed Nomar. Plus Loney seemed to have already put his stamp on the position.
1st half of 2007 was very bad and now everyone pointed to a full season worth of stats to prove that Nomar was done.
Then Nomar had a bounce back 2nd half in 2007 and even hit at home all year long. Why are these numbers completely ignored when declaring Nomar is kaput?
2007-11-14 13:08:34
135.   ToyCannon
133
Okay, now other then 2007 explain Luis Soto to me.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sojolu01.shtml
2007-11-14 13:10:28
136.   Xeifrank
Regarding the projection systems, CHONE is made by Chone Smith who runs this very good Angels blog, http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/

Here is a study done on comparing accuracies of such projection systems.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564

vr, Xei

2007-11-14 13:11:42
137.   fanerman
134 Just to throw some numbers in the mix:
Nomar pre-all-star: .276/.319/.334/.653
Nomar post-all-star: .301/.351/.463/.814

Though, Nomar had a .567 OPS in June, a .706 OPS in August and an .832 OPS in September. So he really only had one "good" month.

2007-11-14 13:14:44
138.   blue22
137 - He OPS'd .805 in July last year, in 78 at-bats. September only represented 34 at-bats.

Not to be forgotten, he is a dreadful fielder as well which will be even more exposed at third base.

2007-11-14 13:15:42
139.   ToyCannon
135
That should say year 2000.
2007-11-14 13:16:43
140.   ToyCannon
137
Did July just disappear off the calendar?
2007-11-14 13:20:53
141.   das411
If I may suggest:

"8) Hometown papers AND BLOGS will often inflate the value of their own players..."

Waaaaaay too many Phillies bloggers were convinced Mike Bourn (and yes, before him Bobby Abreu) darn near walked on water before they learned those players' actual market value. Kemp-Loney-LaRoche could well be the next Edmonds-Pujols-Rolen, but it is just as likely if not more so that they will be more like Hollandsworth-Karros-Beltre...

For some interesting Writers' Strike Thoughts, i just stumbled across this:

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016003.php

...and Jon, is the upcoming Larry Bowa Rule going to be #13 or #14? ;)

2007-11-14 13:22:31
142.   alex 7
Not sure that most are saying Nomar's "done", but many feel LaRoche can duplicate or surpass what Nomar will likely do in another up-and-down season at his age. Giving LaRoche the chance to do this would benefit this team this coming season as well as down the road, and allow Nomar to stay healthy and either be a + reserve or trade-bait.

If it's Nomar that starts and produces similar numbers, LaRoche's development is stunted and he's either in the minors or traded.

2007-11-14 13:24:35
143.   fanerman
140 Oh how utterly confusing. I got my numbers from ESPN. I thought he just missed all of July (just had a big lunch). But, as it turns out, July is listed before April. ESPN lists it as:

July
Last 7 Days
April
May
etc

http://tinyurl.com/yp8r4o

Nomar hit .308/.382/.423/.805 in July. So, definitely a good month for him, but crazy-high OBP. His other months have more reasonable OBP/SLG numbers, based on his BA.

2007-11-14 13:26:44
144.   alex 7
re: 141 seriously? Karros has a lifetime .325 on base %. Loney, based on both minor and major league numbers, will likely have a .325 batting average on some of his better years. Not much of a comparison there.
2007-11-14 13:26:55
145.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2007-11-14 13:27:55
146.   D4P
In a statement released by Rodriguez he said he and his wife Cynthia have spoken directly with Hank and Hal Steinbrenner.

It is absolutely clear, however, that the negotiations -- which never really got started last month -- are now on-going, and agent Scott Boras is not part of the dialogue.

"Alex reached out to the Yankees, and he made it clear he wants to be a Yankee," said one source. "He understands what has to be done."

Rodriguez released the following statement on his Web site.

"After spending time with Cynthia and my family over these last few weeks, it became clear to me that I needed to make an attempt to engage the Yankees regarding my future with the organization.

Meanwhile, friends of Rodriguez say he has been embarrassed by what has taken place. Last week, one high-ranking official with an AL team made this prediction: "I think A-Rod will go back to the Yankees himself and make a deal without Scott involved," said the executive. "This way, he can get back into the good graces of the fans, and still get the biggest contract he can get."

2007-11-14 13:29:11
147.   Jon Weisman
141 - #13 is already taken. It was broken twice today, in fact.
2007-11-14 13:32:47
148.   Xeifrank
The latest McCovey Chronicles blog entry is probably of interest to most of you. They are debating the possible MCAB trade rumors to the Dodgers and what effect it would have on the division long term. It's interesting to see how frightened they are of our young players and how they want us to give them all up in a trade for MCAB. And a few good jabs at making Pierre a LFer. vr, Xei
2007-11-14 13:38:01
149.   dzzrtRatt
139 I'm not sure if I'm getting your point. Sojo was another bench player. His busiest season for Torre, he only played 77 games, and though I don't follow the Yankees close enough to know, I assume some of those games he was a pinch-something or late-inning defensive replacement.

What did Torre do when his GM handed him a starting player who didn't produce? If he kept playing him regardless, then he's just like Little. But my sense is Torre doesn't do that.

As a manager, I could see Torre taking the position that you can't motivate your players to improve if one guy gets to start every game no matter how little he contributes.

I mean... If Luis Gonzalez had complained about why he had to sit while Pierre plays, he'd have had a legitimate point.

Anyway, it's just a "hopeful hypothesis." Maybe Torre is from the old school that sees Pierre as a great on-base guy, a sparkplug, a catalyst, a great distracter of pitchers, a guy who "creates" runs, plus a good American and a soul bound for glory. Maybe he'll think 162 games isn't even enough of a reward for a player of Pierre's superlative merits. If so, I'll be grumpy. But, to me, the Dodgers have needed a manager who doesn't suffer fools gladly, and I see Torre-Mattingly-Bowa as a tough-minded trio.

2007-11-14 15:44:49
150.   Gen3Blue
In keeping with the theme that rumours are just that, I don't think even Colletti would fall for a Cabrera for Kemp, LaRoche,-------, whoever deal. Baseball Analysts had a good piece in the last few days on deals based on a concept called Lease equity, that I think almost any sentient being would grasp intuitively. Why am I still anxious?
At any rate, they have to trade Cabrera or pay him, which they won't, so his value is diminished. If you want to get into a deal based on fear, ie., someone else will get him, your negotiating style will destroy you in the long run anyway
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-11-14 15:54:44
151.   Gen3Blue
And, while I'm venting, I have to point out that JP's weaknesses make him a worse corner outfielder than a centerfielder---an indisputable fact. So a team that would play him in a corner would look twice as stupid as one that would play him in center.......
2007-11-15 10:28:30
152.   derek22
i fail too see why everyone hates on JP. i agree he may be overpaid, and that if we do move one of our outfielder's it should be him, but the guy is a run producer. when its all said and done that is the stat that matters. and in left field he is not going to hurt us as much defensively. he may not hit for power or have a high OBP but his SB's put him in scoring position far more than guys with higher OBP's.

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