If the Dodgers can make it through the season with 5 guys making 95% of starts, that would be a successful season

That would be outstanding!

Here are the starts made by the top 5 pitchers for each NL club in 2007:

Chi - 152 (93.8%)
SD - 143 (87.7%)
Ari - 139 (85.8%)
Mil - 137 (84.6%)
SF - 136 (84.0%)
NY - 133 (82.1%)
Atl - 133 (82.1%)
Hou - 131 (80.9%)
Fla - 131 (80.9%)
Cin - 129 (79.6%)
Pit - 127 (78.4%)
StL - 125 (77.2%)
Phi - 123 (75.9%)
Col - 122 (74.8%)
LA - 118 (72.8%)
Was - 103 (63.6%)

2. Totally got LAT'd there. Harumph.

Bob is right (staggering, I know): Kuroda (黒田) means "black field."

No southpaws. I guess that shouldn't really be a bother, but it sort of is.

Who was the last quality lefty we had?

3
Odalis

Odalis Perez!

Can't believe I forgot about the Fat Tub of Goo.

And the Dodgers treated him like a trash. Shame on them. And me.

Not many dope lefties in the last 30 years.

Fernando
Reuss
Honeycutt
Odalis

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/VgHy

Bob Ojeda had a good year. And then a crummy one.

The NLW is going to be ridiculous next year.

So far it seems like the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have gotten better, the Rockies, Gianta and Padres standing pat. Looks like the NL West will be solid again this year. vr, Xei

I have to admit that going into the off season, I was pretty sure that Colletti would burn at least one top young player to bring in a bat or starting pitcher.

Nice to see that he was able to fill the holes through free agency.

I'm a quality lefty.

3 just wait for elbert and the minotaur. and maybe miller.

12 But you bat right. Throw left, bat right. Ouch.

13 Never heard of him.

Everyone knows Matt Kemp could throw 24 shutouts a season left-handed, but he chooses not to just to keep it fair.

10 Aaron Rowand makes the Giants a tiny bit better. And the Padres are stockpiling lefty's as well, though Edmonds isnt that good anymore.

10. The Giants so far have replaced Barry Bonds with Aaron Rowand.

Hmm. Bonds and Aaron....IN-teresting...

So Andy Pettite admits to using HGH in 2002 and thought he got it from Clemen's trainer. Of course, he signed his contract just before the report came out. To be fair he could have just opted in right after the season.

16 i know he's a much better fielder than bonds is at this stage, but bonds can still outhit him.

16. The Giants lose Bonds' production.
vr, Xei

What do people think are the chances Pierre gets traded to the White Sox? It seems like a perfect fit to me, as they claim to need a proven leadoff hitter. I have a feeling Ned is going to do the right thing.

ZIPS has Kuroda with...

2007 ERA+ 115
Optimistic: 136
Pessimistic: 92

2009 ERA+ 112
2010 ERA+ 105

vr, Xei

Will Saito now get paid a recruiting bonus, or will he have to wait, with the bonus being contingent on how well Kuroda pitches?

20 True, I at least know the defense gets better.

I thought Wilson Alveraz gave us some good innings.

21 i've thought about this. what would we get back?

i know, who cares, right? but seriously, ned has to ask for SOMETHING back. maybe a single prospect of middling quality? i just hope we don't end up with joe crede on our hands.

26 I don't know. Do they have any medium level relief prospects or something? I wonder if Ned will be able to resist taking back Crede.

25
You are right of course. I did a quick search of seasons of 100 IP with 100 ERA+, and Wilson's 2003 had only 95 IP.

Man, that 2003 pitching staff was good.

Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Kuroda
Schmidt/Loaiza/Kershaw

How many times will the 5th starter be skipped in April and May?

28 Thank you Paul Lo Duca?

26

Fautino De Los Santos!

Is Sidney Ponson available?

35.3 for 3 years per Gurnick.

29
Dodgers have 7 off days in the first 62 days of the season, but the off days are scheduled such that the 5th starter should get 7 starts in the first 55 games (with 12 each for the other 4). But it never seems to work out like that.

33
I haven't read the article yet, but I'm guessing the quote was something like "Kuroda will receive $35.3 million over the next three seasons, and could shift to 3rd base if needed since he's obviously better than Andy LaRoche.

So, UCLA hoops chat at 5 and Cardinal bump-set-spike chat at 6?

36
But I'm going to dinner at 7!

I'm glad we signed Jones and Kuroda instead of trading away the farm, but for what we spent on both of them, we could have gotten A-Rod. I don't like A-Rod, and I'm glad he's not the face of the franchise, but at least you know what you're going to get.

Andrew makes some nice factual points about Kuroda & it also makes me wonder, maybe Kuroda has a mechanical flaw or maybe he holds the slider a certain way that makes it stay up? I don't right pretty but I know the basics about pitching & maybe Honeycutt can work with him a little bit. It will be interesting watching him in spring training, I can't wait.

I don't get the UCLA game till 11:00, I think. I will be waiting anxiously to see if UCLA can get through the Idaho-State powerhouse.

I will try to watch some of the volleyball game.

This makes it a great off season for the Dodgers, The signing of Andruw Jones who I don't think of as coming off an off year, but a good 26HR and great 94RBI year. Russell Martin wins the Tip O'Neil award right after the Michell Report and now THIS,Without given up a player Who could ask for any thing more? Who could ask for anything more?**not me.----We do have a log jam in the OF, by why spoil the mood.

38 Unfortunately, your scenario requires the actual availability of A-Rod -- something which has been called into question after how things went down.

Now I will be anxiously awaiting to see if Ned makes anymore moves, while hoping we do absolutely nothing.

Well, unless we can get rid of that one problem.

Dude, sometimes the toaster doesn't let me edit my writing & it sends it straight out! I'm sure it was just a glitch though.

13 At this point I feel like waiting for Miller is like waiting for Godot.

I'm not holding my breath, though I'd love it if he turned things back around. Better chance we'll see Elbert and Kershaw within the year.

I'm down with this signing. Now just trade Pierre for the magic beans and it's a nice offseason.

And, it's officially "hoorah!" Well done.

38. I love A-Rod, but I like what Colletti did better. Dodgers needed a CFer and another pitcher. They didn't need a 3bman (despite what Gurnick thinks) or a SS. Obviously signing A-Rod could have led to other things, but I'm happy with this. Hendrickson is already gone. Pierre has been replaced, and could be outta here (or at least on the bench) soon.

It's almost like Colletti lost a bet. What he has done this off-season has been completely out of character, and as far as I'm concerned, he hasn't made a single mistake ('cept maybe to overpay, but what do I care?).

When the DBax and Rockies knocked out Philly and Chicago last postseason, I was hoping that Colletti would take from that the lesson that talent is more important than PVL. Whether he actually learned that, or, as I say, lost a bet that meant he HAD to keep all the kids for 2008, I don't care. For whatever reason, he has made a series of smart decisions.

Only one more to go.

Doesn't it seem strange to have an introductory press conference on a Sunday?

Sweet, found the UCLA game on TV and it is already looking like a cake walk.

48
Perhaps Kuroda has to catch a flight back home. It's not like the LA sports media is busy on Sundays this time of year.

47. On second thought, maybe his moves haven't been completely out of character. He signed AJ to a huge, short-term contract (cf. Furcal). He didn't do it after a career year, but he paid the guy like 2007 was a career year.

He signed Kuroda, who is by all accounts a middling starter, and veteran (if not proven in MLB). But he's not an injury concern (Wolf, Schmidt) and he's not a proven disaster (Tomko, Hendrickson).

The big news is that he hasn't made (so far) a single trade of even a 2nd tier prospect for veteran garbage.

So, in retrospect, his moves have been brilliant only in comparison with the worst-case scenarios that were rumored, most likely without any basis in truth. Still, I'll take marginally good moves over marginally bad or pointless moves.

('cept maybe to overpay, but what do I care?).

It ain't my money...

A grim comparison:

Newly Signed Dodger Hiroki Kuroda

2007 Central League ERA ranking: 9
ERA: 3.56
Innings: 179.7
Strikeouts: 123
Walks: 42
Homeruns: 20

Mystery Japanese Pitcher

2007 Central League ERA ranking: 12
ERA: 4.19
Innings: 166.7
Strikeouts: 163
Walks: 49
Homeruns: 21

The mystery pitcher is Kaz Ishii.

I hope this doesn't mean anything. Probably it doesn't.

I'm declaring the Kuroda contract a bust. Not that he'll necessarily suck, but he won't be worth the money he's getting paid.

I think A-Rod was pretty available. He had pissed off the Yanks, and no other teams were interested. If anything, we had more leverage than normal.

Overall, it's too easy to give a GM credit for signing free agents. It's more about how much budget you have - not skill.

54 - How do you decide if he's worth the money? Sincere question.

That John Wooden UCLA commercial ("Champions Made Here") is pretty cool, even for a USC fan.

54. You've already established your position that no professional athlete is "worth" the money he is paid, so I'm not thinking this is a particularly bold prediction.

56 Truthiness. He feels it's true, therefore it is.

53 The #12 in ERA for 2007 in the Central League was Takayuki Kishi.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=2147

Bob & Gobears,

fyi

Kuroi = black (drop the i)

ta = rice field (changes to da when combined)

Kuroda = black ricefield

the above is according to my wife (she is my informant on things japanese)

53
On he not-so-dark side, Kaz Ishii as a Dodger, even with the wildness, produced the following in three years:

473 IP, 36-25, 5.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 92 ERA+

Obviously the control was horrible, but if Kuroda can be just a bit better than Ishii (which he was in 2007), I'd be fine with that.

53 59 Actually, strike that, you're right. I was looking at the Pacific League. Zigged when I should have zagged. ;)

We may have overpaid for our free agents, but at least we didn't literally give up the farm. I am comfortable having Loazia and Schmidt battle it out for the 5th spot (god are we paying these two guys a ton of money to battle it out for the 5th spot, but we'll be lucky if one of them has a decent season next year much less counting on both of them).

Now we just need to trade Pierre to the Sox, before the Angels trade them Matthews and we are set to start the year. I don't care if we even get a decent reliever for him, although that would be nice. Lets just get rid of the contract.

63 i don't care if we're still paying the contract. let's just get rid of the player :)

How do you decide if he's worth the money? Sincere question

Good question. There are a number of different ways you can approach worth. The one I have in mind involves calculating some kind of dollars per win share figure. He'll be outperformed by a lot of pitchers making less money, and I think his salary will exceed the dollars per win share figure.

dumb thought:
what if the kuroda deal is leverage for another deal? say, lowe, macdonald and, i dunno, dewitt for bedard. i'm not trying to spark a rumor; i'm trying to see the wisdom of a three-year deal for a 32-year old when you've got three potential starters at double A.... or, perhaps they're thinking of a similar offer (subbing ethier or, god love us, pierre, for dewitt) to get jason bay? all i'm suggesting is the acquisition of another mid-level, older ML-ready pitcher could be about flexibility.

60 Yup. Been there, done that in 2 .

Ta (田) just means "field." It's usually used for "rice field," (after all, it's Japan), but not exclusively.

Weren't the latest rumors out of Chicago casting doubt on the possibility of a trade of JP?

I really think we're just going to have to live with Pierre on the roster in ST; I think a lot depends on whether or not Torre is willing and able to make Pierre be a fairly valuable (if hideously overpriced) 4th OF. As a 4th OF, Pierre actually in my opinion becomes useful; he can play all three OF positions, has the speed to be an effective pinch-runner, and is left-handed. I'd much rather him be the 4th OF than Repko, and unlike Young, he can play CF.

WWSH

How can we already say he's going to be outperformed by a lot of pitchers?

Why does it seem like I'm always the one with the pessimistic view?

Just a terrible use of asset allocation by Dodgers...

This regime's spending habits are truely late 1990's/early 2000s esque.

70
I thought that was D4P's image.

68
?
Pierre can stand in the sun in any of the three places in the outfield. He can't play any of them, particularly RF

65. Ah, well, that's fair. Of course, you have to adjust for the year in which the contract was signed. If the general price level (of baseball players) is going up, then you need to control for that.

The ERA champ in the Central League would have been 8th in the Pacific League. And the Pacific League has the DH. But the Pacific League is also not big on getting good hitters.

Re: 65

Of course, you'll have to compare Kuroda with other free agents, or make extrapolations regarding Dodger farmhands. And arguably, the only real apples-to-apples comparisons that could be made is with free agent pitchers available this season--i.e. the likes of Lohse and Silva.

WWSH

66
Lowe will be gone after 2008, opening a spot for Kershaw/McDonald/Elbert. Schmidt & Penny will be gone after 2009, opening up another two spots.

Plus, odds are that at least one Dodger starter will be hurt or ineffective in 2008, possibly opening up another spot. If a spot doesn't open up in 2008, that will be great for the team.

72 Yeah, but he doesn't have a link right at the top of the page pointing that out. I really do like the Dodgers.

As a 4th OF, Pierre actually in my opinion becomes useful; he can play all three OF positions, has the speed to be an effective pinch-runner, and is left-handed.

Who's going to put him in right field?
Sure, he can be a pinch runner. So can a ton of other players.
What does being left handed have to do with anything, if he cant get on base or hit for power?

Pierre acquiring any amount of playing time is bad. There's no redeeming value in Juan Pierre.

68 he can play all three OF positions

would you seriously want to see him in right field, ever?

if pierre was the mets' right fielder in that infamous playoff 2006 playoff game against us, both kent and drew would have scored standing up.

Re: 70

? D4P and JoeyP have been very pessimistic about the signing from the get-go. And Jon's been hardly optimistic. I think Nate's been the only really aggressively optimistic regular poster.

WWSH

So do GoBears or MJW101 want to take a stab at Fukudome? I think "fuku" means "luck."

74
I understand the need for controlling for the year. No one (not even Ned) thinks Kuroda will outpitch Penny.

Obviously the control was horrible, but if Kuroda can be just a bit better than Ishii (which he was in 2007), I'd be fine with that.

You're fine with a guy making 12+ mils performing a little better than Kaz Ishii?

3 starters (Lowe, Schmidt, Kuroda) now make more than Brad Penny does. Thats just not right.

Re: 80

A lot of 4th OFs have poor defense; Pierre would actually have decent rage in RF--probably better than many regular LFs who are stashed there for a reason. His arm stinks, but if he isn't playing everyday, it's not as much of an issue.

WWSH

64 Agreed as well.

However, I tend to start worrying about the money we are wasting given Colletti's history. It would be nice to save some for next year and a big pitcher. This Kuroda signing may be two years too many as it is. I don't want that 4 year albatross of Pierre on us for much longer.

#7- We have had a couple of "dope" righthanders recently, Kevin Brown and Gagne.
At the risk of not being hip; a better choice of adjectives may be in order.

I'm guessing Ned and Frank think they're keeping up the Red Sox in the signing Japanese starters department.

84
If the Dodgers signed Brad Penny as a free agent this year, he'd make the most on the team. It happens. It's just an issue of timing.

RE: 84

The baseball free agent market establishes how much a pitcher costs; if Kuroda is better than the likes of Silva, Lohse, or in-house options, then yes, he's worth 12 mil. The comparison isn't Kuroda vs. Ishii, it's Kuroda vs. Loaiza/Schmidt/McDonald/Kershaw/other free agents.

WWSH

85 his arm is only an issue when he's playing. just as his range is only an asset when he's playing.

What's odd to me is that if a free agent doesn't pan out, most blame the free agent. However, if a trade doesn't work out, most blame the GM. People forget about poor free agent signings pretty quickly - but bad trades are remembered forever. A GM should get dinged for both.

85
i think i see your point - pierre isn't horrific for a 4th outfielder. if i squint, i guess, i can see some value if he's in LF only, and only as a late inning BR replacement. that said, if he's taking ABs from delwyn young... well, that's not a good swap. i'm actually optimistic that young might hit his way into some regular playing time. i'm less upbeat if juan pierre is getting regular ABs after mid-May... unless those ABs are for the white sox.

I remember Ishii being described as the Japanese Greg Maddux.

I believed.

89
Several players on the Dodgers make more money than Martin and Loney combined too.

Baseball salaries aren't supposed to be an example of a meritocracy.

Juan Pierre (greater than, less than, equal to) Endy Chavez?

85

Having a RF'er with no arm is a huge issue. You are giving up an extra base on every hit to RF with a runner on first or fly ball to right with a runner on second not to mention the runners scoring from second on a single (which is an issue wherever he plays in the OF).

No way will we ever see Pierre in right. I still have my doubts whether we will ever see him there (I certainly hope not).

89
at some point, penny will be making more than a lot of people on his team when he won't be worth it. a calcified, if weird element of modern pro sports is paying for the echo...

84 yeah, but you can't look at each player's deal individually. free agents are typically overpaid. i mean, compare hanley ramirez' salary to say, david eckstein's. totally out of proportion. that's just how baseball's system is structured.

you just have to look at the team as a whole, and put it all in context. do we have a good team? yes. sure, $110 million or whatever is a bit on the high side to field a team, and you'd like a team like the dodgers to make the most of their financial advantages, but considering what was available this offseason, we didn't do too badly.

98
whoops: i meant that as response to 84. i'll retire to my kids' cookie party now.

Jim Colborn compared Ishii to Randy Johnson.

LA Times, 1/10/2002.

" In introducing Japanese pitcher Kazuhisa Ishii to fans Wednesday, Dodger pitching Coach Jim Colborn offered an encouraging comparison.

"He's a scaled-down version of Randy Johnson," Colborn said.

Ishii stands 6 feet 2, not 6-10. His fastball tops 90 mph but never hits 100 mph. He does not come equipped with scraggly hair or a Cy Young Award. But he is a left-handed pitcher who does not hide behind breaking balls.

"He's not a touchy-feely pitcher like Tom Glavine," said Colborn, who became familiar with Ishii when he worked in Japan. "He goes after the hitters."

94 I remember someone on ESPN saying that he might have the best curveball in the game during his first season.

Looking up Ishii's stats, he was worse than I thought.

What is with the all the wronghanded comparisons today? I've never heard a lefty and righty compared before today.

101 i always thought whenever colborn trotted to the mound that he looked severely constipated. no, seriously.

101
That's awesome. "He goes after the hitters" was the old "He gets on base a lot."

Another reason for keeping Ethier instead of Pierre is that Ethier can play right. Kemp can already play center. If Kemp gets hurt and Ethier has already been traded, we have Repko in right every day. To me that is compelling enough to keep Ethier (if there weren't enough other reasons).

100 mmm, cookie party you say?

Another reason for keeping Ethier instead of Pierre is that Ethier can play right. Kemp can already play center. If Kemp gets hurt and Ethier has already been traded, we have Repko in right every day. To me that is compelling enough to keep Ethier (if there weren't enough other reasons).

Another reason for keeping Ethier instead of Pierre is that Ethier can play right. Kemp can already play center. If Kemp gets hurt and Ethier has already been traded, we have Repko in right every day. To me that is compelling enough to keep Ethier (if there weren't enough other reasons).

90--The comparison should be spending 12 mils on Kuroda, or 12mils on something else, doesnt have to be a pitcher.

The feelign that the Dodgers must spend money isnt right. Extending Penny, buying out the arbitration eligible players, or having money left over to make a run at the A-Rod's or Johan Santana's should be IMO the way to go.

I just think Kuroda's going to prevent the more deserving youngsters from getting a shot. Plus, his money could have been used on something better.

Sorry for the triple post. Not sure what happened there

Re: 97 91

Okay, fine, Pierre probably won't play in RF, because he'd probably play CF or LF, with Ethier or Jones going to RF, if Kemp goes down, or needs a break.

But my impression is that Pierre rates roughly average as a CF--that, and his speed makes him a decent 4th OF in my opinion. CF is the hardest position to fill in the OF, where arm strength is not as much as an issue. The other 4th OF options we have are Repko and Young; the former may never have the bat to hit in the big leagues even as a bench player, and the latter who can't play CF.

WWSH

92 - People forgot about Pierre? :)

84
Not said in this discussion is the fact that we lose both Loaiza and Lowe after this year (If Zito got $18 mil, is out of the realm of possibility that Lowe will get 4/$60 mil from someone?).

Kuroda can continue to be a #3-4 in 2009 when the Elbert/Kershaw/McDonald troika are ready to go. This seems to be a pretty decent gap move to bridge what will be a big turnover in our pitching staff between now and 2010.

Money is also less of a concern to me since we will no longer have Nomar, Loaiza, Kent, Furcal, and Lowe after 2008 ($50 million). So far, we only are on the books for about $35 million for 2010. Long term, we have plenty of money to spend thanks to...gulp...Ned Colletti.

I'm happy about the Kuroda signing because I can only be unhappy about one thing at a time. Currently I'm unhappy that someone swiped my backpack from the ski area today, because it contained my prescription glasses. It's not like the person who took it can use them, or the extra pair of socks, which is all it contained.

112 but we have a center fielder. andruw jones. if he needs a day of, toss kemp out there and put young in right. and i'm okay with at least giving repko a shot. he at least had some pop, from what i remember. we don't need pierre.

I would pay money to see Pierre play right field. Now that would be entertainment.

There's crime-infested Utah for you.

114 We're at a little more than 60 million dollars pre arbitration for 2009.

And Daniel, I'm sorry about the backpack.

Nobody mentioned in the last thread that Idaho State's upset of UCLA occurred in Provo. We likely won't see the tournament there again, since it instead plays up in Salt Lake. This cement's Provo's reputation as the place where dynasties go to die.

Re: 109

I have seen no evidence that Kemp can play center. None. He's got a great arm, and his speed lets him recover from horrible routes as a corner OF, but I don't see him as a competent CF. BPro Rate2 as a RF had him at 96 (4 runs below average) last season.

WWSH

So why do the players say they play "lih-berr-oh", but I've always heard it as "lee-berr-oh"?

my optimism has been crushed 5-fold.

82 Bob,

fuku = blows/wipes
do = how/why
me = eye/bud

make of it what you will

I can only be unhappy about one thing at a time

that must be nice.

Marty, don't be sorry about the backpack. It wasn't worth 10 cents. My glasses, on the other hand. Honestly, who steals prescription glasses? Should I check all the local pawn shops? I'm afraid they're instead sitting in the trash somewhere. A lousy place for a good pair of glasses to end up.

If I was cynical like D4P, I'd probably move someplace even further away from crime, like maybe Delaware.

120
And your prescription for glasses is a lot different from mine too.

122 he's still learning and he is athletic enough to improve.

126 I have a single-track mind. I really can do only one thing at a time. You want to overload my neurons? Have two or three conversations going in the same room at the same time.

130 i have trouble concentrating sometimes. wanna trade?

Bob, you're too tall to be a good thief. Easy to spot in a crowd.

116

If Jones goes down, we move Kemp to center, Ethier to right and then Young plays left (this assumes we do the right thing and trade Pierre instead of Ethier). Repko then backs up any of the positions (one reason I like Repko as a 5th OF if he would stay healthy - he can pinch run too). We don't want Young in right or center from what I know and have seen from him. We also aren't moving Jones to right if Kemp gets hurt even though he could probably play it. That just isn't going to happen to a 10 time gold glover.

Please anyone correct me if anyone disagrees with above.

130
This phenomenon is a constant source of confusion to my wife who somehow can talk to me, watch TV, email her friends, and talk on her cell all at the same time.

124 my optimism has been crushed 5-fold

Keep the faith, Nate! And not in a previously-used Padres' slogan way, either.

RE: 129

The youth leaves room for optimism, but he really does look like Keystone Cops out there sometimes. Serious sample size issues, but BPro had him in 34 games at a 76 in Rate2 as a CF. 76! Kemp to me is the prototypical RF--power arm, decent range. But not good enough to be a true CF.

And if he doesn't pick the ball off the bat well now, is there really that much hope he'll improve that much over time?

WWSH

131 Yours is easily corrected by some Adderall.

RE: 133

I'm not sure why I'm spending so much time on who gets to be 4th or 5th OF, but I'm unpersuaded Young will really stick in the majors. And because I see Repko as a perpetual 232 hitter, then no, I don't want him even as the 5th OF.

Listen, I'd love to trade Pierre. I just don't see any reason that'll happen due to the contract, and with our weak OF depth in the minors, I think we could actually get something useful out of him.

WWSH

136 they had him at 160 in CF for 6 games!! one sixty!

seriously though, i'm not worried. how long has kemp been playing baseball full time again? i'm not worried about him being a centerfielder long term. we have jones for a couple of years and by then he'll have actually been playing complete seasons in the majors and we will have a better basis upon which to judge. and if he's a RF at that point, so be it. i don't see the harm in tossing him out at center every now and then to spell andruw though.

136

If Jones went down, it wouldn't a great defense with Ethier in Right, Kemp in Center, and Young in Left, but it would be a bit better than Pierre in Center, Young in Left and Kemp in Right not to mention the offensive difference.

137 i don't like to medicate unless absolutely necessary.

I'm glad Hiroki Kuroda signed on with the Dodgers, but talks of his average salary being between $12 to $13.3 million per season have me disappointed in the organization's continued habit of overspending. Yeah, we're not at the Yankees' level, our young players' salary allow us to get away with this behavior to an extent, and baseball is making money hand-over-fist nowadays, but I still don't like the idea that Ng and company caved during negotiations in Kuroda's extended decision-making contemplation.

Still, I'm glad we haven't traded away any key prospects (yet) and that the back end of our rotation looks to be solidified in the short term. I don't have much faith in our new acquisition's effectiveness beyond this upcoming season, but it allows for the franchise's youth movement a decent opportunity to establish itself.

So lets set some parameters.

What constitutes as success? Failure? Even? Lets do it in terms of IP and ERA+...

138

I don't disagree per say on paper, but you are talking about a guy who has started 162 games a year at Center and lead off and now you are asking him to be a 4th OF and play LF occasionally and pinch run. He seems like a team player, but that is not going to be ideal as he is going to be bitter at some point and wonder why this team signed him for 5 years only to bench him after year 1. If Pierre has value as a 4th OFer then he certainly has more as a CFer and a leadoff hitter (which means a team like the White Sox would be interested in a trade for him). Pierre may even demand a trade or his release at some point.

142--Thats a good point. I always ask myself, "Would the Red Sox make a deal like this". I cant see that they would.

I dont see them giving Tim Wakefield 3/36 just because they have the money available to do it if they so choose.

145
Wakefield is not a free agent. They did give Julio Lugo 4/36 though, which in this year's market might be 4/40 or so.

145 WWTED?

53 - Didn't Ishii depend on his breaking ball, which went to hell depending on his control (or more often, lack of?). From everything I've read, Kuroda is more of a control pitcher. Then again, we haven't seen Kuroda pitch yet. Let's hope that's not the case.

Anyways, just got home from working at the record shop and this is fantastic news!!! Now all I need is an Arsenal win tomorrow morning and this may be the best weekend of recent memory.

105 - I don't get the comparison. OBP is obvious and discoverable. "Going after hitters" is a judgment call about a pitcher's approach on the mound.

For whatever it's worth, I was present at one of Ishii's two career complete games:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200404250.shtml

failure
150IP ERA+ 106

does that work for everyone?

149 i was at that game too! i took my dad for his birthday, which is the 26th.

Okay thats weird, I wrote a whole comment dealio....

failure
< 125IP ERA+ 96

break even
125IP-150IP ERA+ 96-106

success
150+IP ERA+ 106+

150
That's too high for a failure. I'd say 150 IP, 90 ERA+ (5.08 ERA in 2007 Dodger Stadium).

98 "...a calcified, if weird element of modern pro sports is paying for the echo..."

That's a very good way of putting it, immouch. Bravo.

From the letter to the Dodger Season Ticket Holder

"...we saw the first fruits of our revitalized farm system, an area of substantial investment"

Didn't we see some of the "first fruits" in the 2006 season?

Oh well, the mini plans went up again. Top Deck went from $4 a game to $7 a game. With a kid on the way that might make me think twice (I know it is a small amount, but priorities change).

153
I should have hit refresh. I'd say those are good parameters.

Stupid greater than / less than symbols.

Thank god I have the NFL Network....I don't know what I would have don if i missed the Niners-Bengals game....pfft. I am a Steelers fan living in Niner/Raider territory...I don't think I could care any less about the game.

they could at least have had decent teams though.

148 You have fine taste in football as well. So far agreed on King Khan and Arsenal. What record shop do you work at if you dont mind me asking?

Does anyone see Kuroda having an ERA under 4?

145
I don't get that logic after they have signed:
Lugo
JD Drew
Lowell
Varitek

To questionable contracts. If Ned had done any of those contracts each of his limbs would already be missing.

146---It doesnt really matter that he's not a free agent. Its more, would the Red Sox pay 12/13 mils a year for a starting pitcher that would almost for sure be back of the rotation, or would they reallocate that money to other parts of the club and instead give that starting spot to a high ceiling youngster.

How is signing Kuroda, any different than the Giants signing a guy like Matt Morris?

Would everyone that is happy with the Kuroda signing, be happy if the Dodgers had signed a Matt Morris or a Tim Wakefield?

Guaranteeing years/money into pitchers that have little upside at all is very bad business.

We should have a community vote.

The difference between Ned paying Hiroki $12-13M and Penny making $9.5M is admittedly large, however, Penny, while being a much better pitcher, is NOT a free agent. When his contract is up in 2010 Penny, as a free agent, will probably command $18-20M a year.

Ned may be an habitual over spender (see JP), but, in this case he was probably justified.

160
ZiPS does (3.92, 115 ERA+)

26
27
i picture Colletti refusing Crede in any deal and the Sox refusing Pierre in any deal, an the two sides arguing back and forth until they realize the only reason they are trying to do a deal is to get rid of those players....

82 Sorry - I was out walkin' the dog.

福 (Fuku) means luck, fortune, blessing, wealth
留 (Dome) is from the verb tomaru (or tomeru) which means "to stop"

Fukudome is an unusual name- it's the first time I've ever seen it.

162

I believe Kuroda has more upside than you give him credit for. I think he will be a "success" for us next year and perfectly acceptable pitcher for any rotation.

penn state appears to be leading in the volleyball thing. is it on tv at all?

Does anyone see Kuroda having an ERA under 4?

Do you agree to those terms?

161--
Drew, Lowell, Varitek at least have some semblance of being a quality player. They've proven it at the MLB level. There is a known upside with each player.

Lugo--I didnt get that one, but it could be that the Red Sox just had no other options they could throw in at SS. The Dodgers on the other hand, have plenty of 4th/5th starters that they could go to (some with higher upsides than Kuroda)

159 - Fingerprints in Long Beach. Today was my last day, though. i played in an RFTC cover band around Halloween and i forgot how much i love playing...so i want to start another band.

but between a full time job, dj'ing, and a rock band, i can't work a second job and leave the wyf at home all the time. the lady deserves to see me now and then...

sorry for all the off topic talk. i'm off for beers (time to celebrate Kuroda!!!).

170--I agree.

If Kuroda's ERA is under 4.00, its a success.

If its over 4.50, its a failure.

If its between 4-4.50, its really just inconsequential, so I'd still go with a failing grade.

I'll accept nothing less then 175 innings and a ERA+ > 105.

The terms were in 153

You can't fail when if breaks even! come on! Thats like getting a C in a class and still getting an F on the report card.

168 I agree, and I like your scale too. Kuroda will likely prove many quite pessimistic. But then, they already know they're being pessimistic. Great signing, I'm with you on this one.

175--Those are university-level rules.

Anything less than a C, you dont get credit for the class towards your major.

Joey

The Dodger do not have a lot of options to throw in the back end of the rotation this year unless you count Hendrickson, Loaiza etc. Kershaw, Elbert, McDonald all are still 1 year away. And we didn't sign Kuroda because of his ceiling. We signed him to be the our #4 pitcher for 3 years. You just could not count on Schmidt and Loaiza being your #4 and #5 guys this year, especially after we witnessed watch Hendrickson and Tomko did to the team last year.

172 i like fingerprints! it's a good store. i too want to start a band. i was never much into RFTC though.

171 i was fine with the in-house options, myself, but whatever. this signing isn't an outrage or anything. they could've spent the money better probably, but oh well.

The scale needs to be on the sidebar :)

The Kuroda Accord should be more fun to follow than the Pierre Out watch.

124 To temporarily suspend my self-imposed exile for purposes of restoring your optimism, well, put him in white and blue and make it game 4 of the 2008 WS:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cekkzbHot_I

With that, back to exile.

125 is not right. All those stinkin' homonyms...

177

actuallllyyyyy, if you get a D, you get credit for the class. :)

173 If its between 4-4.50, its really just inconsequential, so I'd still go with a failing grade

There were only 28 pitchers in the NL last season with an ERA better than 4.00, less than two per team. Were there that many "failures"?

I like mind the Kuroda signing because it keeps Kemp a Dodger, and I don't think it matters what his ERA is so long as he stays healthy, starts 30 games, and wins at least 12 (remember, he'll be going up against other teams' number 4 pitchers).

And given that Nomar, Kent, Lowe and Furcal come off the payroll next year with Kershaw, McDonald, Hu and Abreu coming in to fill those holes, I don't mind the money being spent. However, I do find it perverse that the 1-3 pitchers get 17.8mil and the 4-6 pitchers get 29mil.

125 - Fukudome is not translated like you wrote it. It is two characters (not three).

Fuku - wealth/blessing/fortune/luck
dome - comes from the root of the verb tomeru (which has several meanings). But the applicable ones to his name are: to concentrate on; to pay attention to; to remember; to bear in mind.

The earlier translation of Kuroda's name was fine.

180 The Kuroda Accord

that's an indie rock band name if ever i saw one.

185 remember, he'll be going up against other teams' number 4 pitchers

After the first week or so of the season, matchups tend not to line up like this, due to many factors, one of which is differing schedules.

184
I used 100 IP minimum for my search.

188 -- True, but generally (probably 20 starts) he will be facing the backend of the opposition's rotation.

190

You can't really control wins so it would be hard to measure him for something he really can't control.

191 -- What does that even mean? That pitchers can't control run support? Well, duh.

I'm not saying you can "control wins," but you can give quality outings and battle through tough starts to keep your team in the game.

191 -- For example, not having efforts like Tomko and Hendrickson where they'd give up five runs in the first inning and immediately take the team out of the game.

192 but you can give quality outings and battle through tough starts to keep your team in the game

The best way you can keep your team in the game by giving up fewer runs. That's why it would be better to use ERA, FIP, VORP, or something other than wins as a measurement.

Japanese starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda spurned the Mariners and agreed to a contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday shortly after noon, agreeing to a three-year deal worth about $36 million.

The Mariners had offered Kuroda more money, and the Kansas City Royals offered as much money on a per-year basis in addition to an extra year -- a total of four years at $48 million.

http://tinyurl.com/2wnn9k

A positive way to look at Kuroda's signing is to realize he makes less than Schmidt, but can actually pitch.

195

He should be D4P's favorite player already. He didn't sell his soul for just the money.

195
That article listed Randy Wolf as another available free agent pitcher, even though he already signed with the Padres.

---dont want to jinx anything...dont want to jinx anything...vish, it's on ESPN2...but dont jinx it!!---

I know Saito went and visited Kuroda, and I know the salary bar on the side says 1.75, but do we actually have Saito under contract for next year?

I understand the clamoring for a college football playoff, but I'm really, really tired of people saying, "BCS has one too many letters" or something to that effect.

We get it! You don't like the BCS. You think it's "BS". It's just not funny. I have a rule: if the phrase is said by local television news anchors during their witty banter portion of the newscast, it's dead.

194 -- I feel like you are intentionally missing my point. If Kuroda goes 12-8 with a 4.78 ERA in 30 starts, for example, I will consider Kurdoa's signing a moderate success. If he goes 6-10 with a 3.90 ERA in 20 starts, then his signing is disappointing even though the ERA is "desirable."

My point is that I will evaluate Kuroda's signing on his ability to be a reliable starter who gives the team a chance to win almost every time out and doesn't put undue stress on the bullpen.

Besides, ERA can be a poor way to evaluate a pitcher's entire season. A pitcher can get bombed for 10 runs in a third of an inning in one game, and yet be solid the rest of the season. And yet his ERA will be skewed because of that one bad outing.

200
Saito is technically under team control, and they can renew him but his salary has not been determined yet.

Saito has leverage in that he can return to Japan, but he can't sign with another major league team. I would imagine he'll get a one or two year deal this offseason, especially given his role in Kuroda's recruitment.

183 - The rules I go by are that you can only take 6 credit hours of D for your major.

If he goes 6-10 with a 3.90 ERA in 20 starts,then his signing is disappointing even though the ERA is "desirable."

If the dodgers averages around 3 runs per game in his starts, how does he have any control over that? He pitched the best he could but the offense couldn't supply him with enough support to win games.

I don't think you can hold that against him.

I would pay money to see Pierre play right field. Now that would be entertainment.

For the Giants, yes.

How healthy is Otsuka? I wouldn't mind if Colletti hits the Japanese trifecta and brings Otsuka on board for a year.

202
A pitcher is more likely to have a better record with a 3.90 ERA than a 4.78 ERA.

Over time, with enough innings, the outliers (such as giving up 10 runs in 1/3 of an inning) become less significant and don't actually skew the numbers.

Besides, a win total can also be skewed by an outing in which a pitcher gives up 8 runs over 5 IP, but the team wins 9-8.

Batters bat. Pitchers pitch. Fielders field. Teams win games.

205 -- Okay, now I know you're intentionally missing my point.

Let me ask you a question: If Kuroda starts 30 games this year, and in each and every one of them goes 6 innings and gives up 3 runs, would you consider that a good season?

209 Let me ask you a question: If Kuroda starts 30 games this year, and in each and every one of them goes 6 innings and gives up 3 runs, would you consider that a good season?

I know you were asking Nate, but yes, I would consider that a good season.

I will take the pitcher with the 3.9 ERA over the one with 4.78 ERA.

I will take the team that allowed the lousier pitcher to win 12 games over the team that wasted the good pitcher's efforts.

205 - But if we revert to the dead ball era, or even the 1960s, that's awful.

209

180IP 4.5 era....

That would be "break even" :)

210 -- Well, that's a 4.50 ERA, which is a number that a lot of commentators here have described as a "failure." And if we were talking about our "ace", then I would agree. But Kuroda has been signed to be the No. 4.

And, by the way, a pitcher that goes 180 IP with a 3.90 ERA and a pitcher that goes 180 IP with a 4.80 ERA is 18 runs, so one or two really bad outings can have a significant impact on a pitcher's ERA for the season.

210 - I think that 180 innings of 100 ERA+ ball is alright.

And another thing, none of this is to suggest that I believe that Kuroda will be a successful pitcher or that I think he can attain the goals I just laid out. I have no idea what he's capable of. I'm just talking about the expectations for a No. 4 pitcher.

Sam NYC, I think I can state with confidence that no one is intentionally missing your point. I think they are intentionally disagreeing with you.

You say: "I will evaluate Kuroda's signing on his ability to be a reliable starter who gives the team a chance to win almost every time out and doesn't put undue stress on the bullpen"

There is not a shred of doubt that ERA, however flawed that statistic might be, is a better indicator of progress toward this goal then a W-L record.

The only wild card in your example in 202 is that you have a pitcher with an ERA of nearly 5.00 making 10 more starts than a pitcher with an ERA of nearly 4.00. The only possible explanation of this you're hypothesizing an injury. And yes, health is important. But that doesn't have much to do with how you've been arguing wins vs. ERA.

214 - There's no reason to assume that a pitcher with a lower ERA didn't also have one very lousy outing that skewed his ERA, just like the higher ERA pitcher did.

I have two campaigns left for the offseason:

1) Move Pierre away from the Dodger starting lineup

2) LaRoche for leadoff man

219 2) LaRoche for leadoff man

I'll be ecstatic if we are at the point in the discussion where we can campaign for such a thing! :)

220 - I've been a believer in this since his Dodgers.com chat:

bradalban: What adjustments are you going to make for next season?

LaRoche: I'd say probably my approach at the plate. I can't be quite as aggressive, because they have scouting reports, so I'll probably have to be a little more patient or selective at the plate.

http://tinyurl.com/2vomcz

We now have 10 of the 14 AL starting rotations detailed.

Red Sox - Benaiah
Yankees - TheBigGrabowski
Blue Jays - RobP

Tigers - TheBigGrabowski
Indians - MCSafety
Twins - TheBigGrabowski
Royals - Eric Stephen

Angels - Scareduck
Mariners - TheBigGrabowski
Athletics - TheBigGrabowski

Any volunteers for the remaining four?

Rays -
Orioles -
White Sox -
Rangers -

If you're willing, please put your results with the others in this thread:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/881690.html

199 hey man, my bad on the volleyball. i tuned in as i was making dinner with penn state up 2-0 and it's been downhill ever since. i shut it off after the cardinal tied the game.

I'd be willing to take the Rays.

This 6 IP, 3 ER talk had me thinking about the "quality start" definition, and how it sometimes gets denounced because of the lower limit of the definition.

Since I've been looking at Baseball-Reference.com all day anyway, I figured I'd look up all the quality starts in the NL in 2007 to see how the pitchers and teams fared. Here's what I found:

2007 NL Quality Starts
Starts: 1,224
Pitcher Record: 659-187 (.779 winning pct), 378 no-decisions
Team Record: 835-389 (.682 winning pct)
IP/start: 6.70
H/9: 7.11
BB/9: 2.38
K/9: 6.48
HR/9: 0.64
ERA: 2.15
WHIP: 1.05

Also, there were 148 outings of exactly 6 IP & 3 ER, 12% of the total.

Godfather II is on right now, and I feel like an idiot because I've seen the movie probably 30 times but I didn't realize until last week that Johnny Ola and "Uncle Junior" Soprano were the same person (Dominic Chianese).

225 i like eric stephen guy. he actually goes and looks up the numbers that the rest of us are too lazy to crunch.

i trust that your figures are accurate, right? :)

er, *this eric stephen guy.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2007 season National Leauge

49 pitchers threw 150 Innings or more
5 pitchers threw 140-149 innings
3 pitchers threw 130-139 innings
5 pitchers threw 120-129 innings
8 pitchers threw 110-119 innings
9 pitchers threw 100-109 innings

Been listening to that YouTube Memorex lady a lot. She's the only girl I got tonight. What a voice on her. Most commercial girls now have a striving-for-teen intonation, with an LA nasal perk. That woman was total Seventies sensual. A voice deepish and rich (almost gooey). And sexual, but not ludicrous about it. Her diction approaches mannerism, (most amusingly with her overly buttered pronunciation of "good" about 5 seconds in...gewwwd.) but more intriguing than annoying. And that hairstyle is just about 6 months from being cool again. I can feel it.

229 yes? (i stopped watching)

One of my favorite parts---where Fredo, who has denied knowing Johnny Ola crows "Johnny Ola showed me", and Mickey justs hangs his head and gives that awful palid look.
"I'm Smart" really I am.

232 - YES!!

Sorry Jon, but man alive did Stanford put up a good fight!

226 Eric, Eric.

One by one, our old friends are gone. Death, natural or not, prison, deported. Hyman Roth is the only one left, because he always made money for his partners.

So do you guys think McCourt will hike up the parking fees this year? I park out side most of the time so it doesn't really matter to me.

Nate, how can you stand communicating with that crowd at Orioles Hangout? Some people there are unobjectionable, but there are an awful lot of people there who think the Dodgers have/had an obligation to just bend over and let them rape us nine ways from Sunday in a Bedard trade. And now that we have Kuroda, their sour grapes over not getting Kemp/Kershaw/LaRoche and MORE is just disgusting.

234 roll on you nittany lions :)

I'm not arguing wins versus ERA; those who think that I am are putting Plaschke-esque words in my mouth. The only reason I have pointed to the number of wins as being important is to emphasize that a pitcher should be evaluated on a number of different factors, not just ERA. ERA can be skewed because a few bad outings. When a pitcher has a higher ERA, but a good win total, there can be a couple explanations: (a) great run support (in which case the pitcher is clearly of less value) or (b) a couple of really bad outings.

My only point is that judging a pitcher entirely upon his ERA, as some have done here, is wrong, and saying that the success of Kuroda's signing should be judged on whether he has an ERA above or below 4.50 is silly. I prefer to look at a pitcher's game log than to look at a single number.

I had to rework the numbers because I had to change all the .1 & .2 IP to get the numbers right. Here are the updated numbers:

2007 NL Quality Starts
Starts: 1,224
Pitcher Record: 659-187 (.779 winning pct), 378 no-decisions
Team Record: 835-389 (.682 winning pct)
IP/start: 6.75
H/9: 7.05
BB/9: 2.36
K/9: 6.42
HR/9: 0.64
ERA: 2.13
WHIP: 1.05

235
I feel ashamed, Marty. I know! Even funnier is that I own the movies on DVD and I tend to watch them more on TV for some reason. Maybe it's the spontaneity of the movie being on when I didn't expect it.

207 How healthy is Otsuka? I wouldn't mind if Colletti hits the Japanese trifecta and brings Otsuka on board for a year.

>> Daniels said that, while Otsuka has sent good rehab reports this winter, the club had too much uncertainty to meet the pitcher's salary and contractual-length demands. That uncertainly also deterred other teams from consummating trade proposals for Otsuka.

"We went through all of our options," Daniels said, "and ultimately decided the risk was more than we felt comfortable with for what it would have cost to retain him."

Otsuka successfully converted 36 of 43 save opportunities during his two seasons in Texas, and he proved a stalwart replacement for struggling closer Francisco Cordero in 2006 and as a place-holder for Gagne early last season. Daniels said he appreciated the pitcher's contributions but could not overlook the arm trouble that spoiled the second half of last season.

"We haven't been able to see him up on a mound in a couple of months now," Daniels said. "The bottom line is he hadn't thrown for a couple of months and we had real concerns."

http://tinyurl.com/2rhb5f

[230 cont.]2007 National Leauge

For pitcher who threw 100 innings or more.

7 pitchers era of 3.00-3.49
17 pitchers era of 3.50-3.99
12 pitchers era of 4.00-4.49
16 pitchers era of 4.50-4.99
13 pitchers era of 5.00-5.49
5 pitchers era of 5.50-5.99
3 pitchers era of 6.00+

some of you people are unbelievable.

you dont want to give up prospects yet, when we sign a player to whatever amount the market dictates, you call it overspending...we are the Dodgers. we dont need to worry about money.

Canuck-- where is the Oriole hangout?

MLB could break down because this year teams with young, under control talent like the D's, Dbacks, Rockies, Sox etc., have realized it is not worth trading for overpriced long contract Vets. This could doom small msrket teams that develop a few
pricey stars and dump them for prospects!

The reason I feel the D's will improve is that while I don't expect Loney, Kemp, Martin and LaRoche to improve their rate statistics, just by getting more AB's they will improve their counting stats. I feel Hu, Ethier, and Young are somewhat underated, and could contibute more than expected as opposed to Abreu.

238 and De La Salle Spartans

244 -- After people talked about it here, I just Googled "Orioles Hangout." That did the trick.

245
I miss the days when De La Salle would beat my football by 70 points with their second and third stringers.

*football team

I hate this keyboard.

240 Do you know what is the average number of innings pitched and era for the number four starters in the National Leauge in 2007?

249
Depends how you define #4.

Do you mean the pitcher on each team with the 4th most IP? Based on what I looked up today, the average number of starts made by the #4 starters in the NL was 21.7.

Unfortunately I didn't look up any other data other than starts. But, what I did was go to each team's 2007 page on Baseball-Reference.com and click on the pitching splits category. From there, you can click on the "As Starter" (in red) to get a breakdown of each pitcher that made a start.

249
I do have the NL West numbers.

NL West #4 Starters
LA (Wolf): 102.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 97 ERA+
SD (Germano): 128.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 91 ERA+
Col (Hirsh): 112.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 100 ERA+
Ari (Owings): 150 IP, 4.32 ERA, 109 ERA+
SF (Lincecum): 146.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 111 ERA+
Avg NL West: 128 IP, 4.45 ERA, 102 ERA+

I used a weighted average for the ERA+ for the NL West as a whole.

So much for De La Salle cruising to victory. Game is tied up.

I wish Ryan Bass could have academically qualified for UCLA.

251 Thanks!
Owings' and Linecum's numbers are similar to what Jon was reccomending as parameters for Kuroda to be considered as successful this season in the previous thread.

truebluela gets a shout out from the LAtimes dodgers blog.

172 Hilarious. I was born and raised in Long Beach. I love what Nobody's doing right now. Im friends with Johnny from Crystal Antlers, who you probably know through Ikey.

252 Last team with the ball wins this game?

240
We had a choice between Godfather II or Galaxy Quest. We own both but never watch the DVD, but if Galaxy Quest is on TV it always trumps, even the GodFather series.

256
Terrible call by refs on celebration penalty.

All I care is that maybe Ned will be less likely to trade Kemp or LaRoche and/or the pitcher who we can not name. Also, Karoda in the #4 slot will still probably make us better off than the 2nd half of last year when we had too many starts of "Tomrickson" once Wolf went down. A rotation of Penny, Lowe, Bills, Karoda, Loaiza/Schmidt is much more palatable than what we were force fed much of the year last year once the injury wave hit. With McDonald, The Pitcher who we can not name and Elbert very near to breaking down the door, we should be fine now. Message to Ned, "Relax, Ned, Breathe, You have Starting pitching, keep the power. Say no to giving up Kemp, Laroche, "PWWNN". If you have to trade someone, trade Pierre to the White sox for B prospects".
Otherwise, I'm beginning to like the middle of the lineup if they construct some manner of Kemp-Jones-Loney or Kemp-Loney-Jones. Starting pitching looking a little more balanced, not dominant but effective, bullpen solid not spectacular.

258 Agreed. But the stop on 4th and one made sure it wouldn't come back to bite them. Congrats to De La Salle even though I was hoping for another So Cal sweep.

252 "I wish Ryan Bass could have academically qualified for UCLA.'

As a person who went to the High School up the street from Centennial, I'd be surprised if anybody from that High School qualified for UCLA.

The lineup that I'd like to see most of the time ...
Furcal
Martin
Kemp
Jones
Loney
Kent
Ethier
LaRoche
P

On the matter of Kershaw and Santana and forecasting what the odds are that Kershaw will be as good as Santana, let's take a look at comparative stats, when the players were at the same level.

Kershaw pitched in low A (Midwest League) at age 19 before advancing to Double A, and his low A stat line was as follows:

97.1 IP, 72 H's, 5 HR's, 50 BB's, 134 K's, 2.77 ERA

Santana spent most of his age 19 season below low A, then got into a couple of games in low A (Midwest League) before the end of the season. In that brief time in low A this was his line:

6.2 IP, 14 H's, 1 HR, 3 BB's, 6 K's, 9.45 ERA

Too little of a sample size, so we have to look at Santana's age 20 season, when Santana put in a full season in low A and produced the following stats:

160.1 IP, 162 H's, 14 HR's, 55 BB's, 150 K's, 4.66 ERA

So while a year older than Kershaw, Santana was not nearly as dominating in the K department, he was far more hittable, and more likely to give up home runs, and earned runs period. Only a better walk rate saves Santana from being handily beaten across the board by a younger left-handed pitcher.

I think injury is the only thing that could trip up Kershaw as he makes progress toward becoming just as good a pitcher as Santana has been in recent years, and Santana could be derailed by injury too in the future, so it is not like that risk lies only with the prospect.

263 That is an excellent presentation.
It's going to be fun to watch and see what Kershaw is able to do this spring.
If Kuroda does well and the other three starters stay healthy, Kershaw and the others can have time to develop properly.

263. Will be interesting to see how their 23-year old seasons compare. vr, Xei

236 I received my invoice for the up coming season and parking has stayed the same. ticket prices have gone up again this year, so much that I am considering giving up my seats. For the first 4 years I had my seats they were $5/seat times 4 seats=$20 a game. Last year it went to $28 a game. This year it will be $40 a game. Tickets have gone up 100% in 2 years, not to mention parking increasing 50%! If I do end up getting the tickets most of them will end up ebay. I went to over 60 games last season and at times the time, effort, and cost of driving from Riverside wasn't worth it. With an additional 40% on tickets and the ever rising gas prices, I doubt I will attend more than a handful of games this year. All of this after a 4th place finish. I shutter to think how much it will cost to go to a ball game if we ever win a playoff series.

263
The variability of these statistics at such early ages may render them useless if we look at Santana's age 20 statistical season and what he's done after a couple of years in the bigs, no?

I say we overpaid for the Japanese hurler because of the weak $$...

(joking...kinda)

253
I went through every team's starters in the 2007 NL, in an attempt to define the starting slots one through five.

Using Baseball-Reference.com, I used each team's top 5 IP as a starter and averaged each slot out. I used the league 4.43 ERA to calculate the cumulative ERA+, so they may be a bit off. Here are the numbers:

#1 Starter
33.3 GS, 210 IP, 6.31 IP/start
9.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9
3.84 ERA, 115 ERA+

#2 Starter
30.9 GS, 187 IP, 6.06 IP/start
9.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9
4.32 ERA, 103 ERA+

#3 Starter
27.9 GS, 160 IP, 5.75 IP/start
9.4 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9
4.53 ERA, 98 ERA+

#4 Starter
21.7 GS, 124 IP, 5.73 IP/start
9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9
4.59 ERA, 96 ERA+

#5 Starter
16.4 GS, 89 IP, 5.43 IP/start
10.2 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9
5.07 ERA, 87 ERA+

#6 Starter
11.3 GS, 60 IP, 5.37 IP/start
10.2 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 6.2 K/9
5.26 ERA, 84 ERA+

From the LA Times:

>> Hilliard said each of the final four teams vying for Kuroda's services offered four-year contracts, including the Dodgers.

"It was his decision," Hilliard said of Kuroda taking a shorter deal. "In the end, he was more comfortable with a three-year contract." <<

## Hilliard confirmed that Saito has received an offer from the Dodgers and that they remain in negotiations. Saito doesn't have a 2008 contract but is under the Dodgers' control.

He earned $1 million last season when he had 39 saves. ##

http://tinyurl.com/yosot3

268 Great job! This provides a wonderful perspective. Thanks.

269 Maybe Saito really will get a recruiting bonus. If Kuroda can produce the numbers of the leauge average #3 Starter as cited in 268 , I'd say that Saito certainly deserves it.

I don't know if it'll be the same out there, but from 5 to 5:30 out this way, Animal Planet has been running a fine show of scorpions fighting spiders and a few other things.

Wow.

Kudos to Eric Stephen for his outstanding effort and statistical analysis in the last few threads. Thank you!

If the Dodgers had any sense, they would come to this site and gather up about 10 of the best and brightest to be hired as special consultants to Frank McCourt — with the stipulation that they would have the prerogative of overruling any of Ned Colletti's potentially disastrous moves.

As always, thank you Jon Weisman for creating this haven and keeping it alive for all the truest of true Dodger fans.

vr, Ben

Good comment, Ben, and I will add to it. Thanks to all of the posters who make this a terrific site. Thanks to Jon for making it happen.

Ooh my wealthy pitching one, pitching one.
When you gonna throw the shuuto, Kuroda?
Ooh you make Colletti stop, Colletti stop.
Don't need to trade away the farm, Kuroda
Never gonna trade, give Matt Kemp up.
Such a pitching staff.
Always get kids from Logan of the younger kind.
My my my i yi woo.
M M M My Kuroda

Regarding the lineup:

Furkle shouldn't be automatically handed the leadoff spot at the beginning of the year. He should be put at the bottom until he proves that he is healthy and can hit again.

One of Grittle's most egregious (yet least talked about) lineup mistakes last year involved his refusal to drop Furkle down in the lineup despite the fact he was obviously hurt and unable to perform at an acceptable level for a leadoff hitter.

If the Dodgers had any sense, they would come to this site and gather up about 10 of the best and brightest to be hired as special consultants to Frank McCourt — with the stipulation that they would have the prerogative of overruling any of Ned Colletti's potentially disastrous moves

As I've said before: I have no doubt (none!) that plenty of people around here could do a better job evaluating players than Colletti does.

277 Think about it, no Roberto Hernandez, no 2-11 record for Tomko....I could go on and on.

The sad and ridiculous thing is that a person need only spend a few days looking into recent baseball stat research to know more than Ned does. OBP and SLG are not rocket science, and yet Ned refuses to acknowledge their importance (and apparently, their existence).

275: Pretty good.

I love his top notch observation of Kemp the other day. It was something along the lines of " You dont hit .340 magically". I think that was it.

New post up top.

275 - brilliant!

280 283 Thank you. Thank you very much.