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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
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* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Tony Jackson of the Daily News was the first to say it was a done deal, reporting the contract at $36 million to $40 million for three years, and now the Dodgers have announced that Hiroki Kuroda will be introduced as a Dodger at a 12 noon press conference Sunday.
Esteban Loaiza and Jason Schmidt are now competing to be the team's No. 5 starter. (No, Chad Billingsley cannot go back to the bullpen. He's proven too much that he belongs in the rotation.)
Dylan Hernandez of the Times still has the contract peaking at $36 million. We'll see who's right soon enough.
Previously on Dodger Thoughts: "Mutual of Kuroda". And since most are optimistic about Kuroda's potential impact on the Dodgers, here's a more pessimistic writeup from True Blue L.A.
That would be outstanding!
Here are the starts made by the top 5 pitchers for each NL club in 2007:
Chi - 152 (93.8%)
SD - 143 (87.7%)
Ari - 139 (85.8%)
Mil - 137 (84.6%)
SF - 136 (84.0%)
NY - 133 (82.1%)
Atl - 133 (82.1%)
Hou - 131 (80.9%)
Fla - 131 (80.9%)
Cin - 129 (79.6%)
Pit - 127 (78.4%)
StL - 125 (77.2%)
Phi - 123 (75.9%)
Col - 122 (74.8%)
LA - 118 (72.8%)
Was - 103 (63.6%)
Bob is right (staggering, I know): Kuroda (黒田) means "black field."
Who was the last quality lefty we had?
Odalis
And the Dodgers treated him like a trash. Shame on them. And me.
Fernando
Reuss
Honeycutt
Odalis
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/VgHy
Nice to see that he was able to fill the holes through free agency.
13 Never heard of him.
Hmm. Bonds and Aaron....IN-teresting...
vr, Xei
2007 ERA+ 115
Optimistic: 136
Pessimistic: 92
2009 ERA+ 112
2010 ERA+ 105
vr, Xei
i know, who cares, right? but seriously, ned has to ask for SOMETHING back. maybe a single prospect of middling quality? i just hope we don't end up with joe crede on our hands.
You are right of course. I did a quick search of seasons of 100 IP with 100 ERA+, and Wilson's 2003 had only 95 IP.
Man, that 2003 pitching staff was good.
Lowe
Billingsley
Kuroda
Schmidt/Loaiza/Kershaw
How many times will the 5th starter be skipped in April and May?
Fautino De Los Santos!
Dodgers have 7 off days in the first 62 days of the season, but the off days are scheduled such that the 5th starter should get 7 starts in the first 55 games (with 12 each for the other 4). But it never seems to work out like that.
I haven't read the article yet, but I'm guessing the quote was something like "Kuroda will receive $35.3 million over the next three seasons, and could shift to 3rd base if needed since he's obviously better than Andy LaRoche.
But I'm going to dinner at 7!
I will try to watch some of the volleyball game.
Well, unless we can get rid of that one problem.
I'm not holding my breath, though I'd love it if he turned things back around. Better chance we'll see Elbert and Kershaw within the year.
I'm down with this signing. Now just trade Pierre for the magic beans and it's a nice offseason.
It's almost like Colletti lost a bet. What he has done this off-season has been completely out of character, and as far as I'm concerned, he hasn't made a single mistake ('cept maybe to overpay, but what do I care?).
When the DBax and Rockies knocked out Philly and Chicago last postseason, I was hoping that Colletti would take from that the lesson that talent is more important than PVL. Whether he actually learned that, or, as I say, lost a bet that meant he HAD to keep all the kids for 2008, I don't care. For whatever reason, he has made a series of smart decisions.
Only one more to go.
Perhaps Kuroda has to catch a flight back home. It's not like the LA sports media is busy on Sundays this time of year.
He signed Kuroda, who is by all accounts a middling starter, and veteran (if not proven in MLB). But he's not an injury concern (Wolf, Schmidt) and he's not a proven disaster (Tomko, Hendrickson).
The big news is that he hasn't made (so far) a single trade of even a 2nd tier prospect for veteran garbage.
So, in retrospect, his moves have been brilliant only in comparison with the worst-case scenarios that were rumored, most likely without any basis in truth. Still, I'll take marginally good moves over marginally bad or pointless moves.
It ain't my money...
Newly Signed Dodger Hiroki Kuroda
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 9
ERA: 3.56
Innings: 179.7
Strikeouts: 123
Walks: 42
Homeruns: 20
Mystery Japanese Pitcher
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 12
ERA: 4.19
Innings: 166.7
Strikeouts: 163
Walks: 49
Homeruns: 21
The mystery pitcher is Kaz Ishii.
I hope this doesn't mean anything. Probably it doesn't.
Overall, it's too easy to give a GM credit for signing free agents. It's more about how much budget you have - not skill.
53 The #12 in ERA for 2007 in the Central League was Takayuki Kishi.
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=2147
fyi
Kuroi = black (drop the i)
ta = rice field (changes to da when combined)
Kuroda = black ricefield
the above is according to my wife (she is my informant on things japanese)
On he not-so-dark side, Kaz Ishii as a Dodger, even with the wildness, produced the following in three years:
473 IP, 36-25, 5.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 92 ERA+
Obviously the control was horrible, but if Kuroda can be just a bit better than Ishii (which he was in 2007), I'd be fine with that.
Now we just need to trade Pierre to the Sox, before the Angels trade them Matthews and we are set to start the year. I don't care if we even get a decent reliever for him, although that would be nice. Lets just get rid of the contract.
Good question. There are a number of different ways you can approach worth. The one I have in mind involves calculating some kind of dollars per win share figure. He'll be outperformed by a lot of pitchers making less money, and I think his salary will exceed the dollars per win share figure.
what if the kuroda deal is leverage for another deal? say, lowe, macdonald and, i dunno, dewitt for bedard. i'm not trying to spark a rumor; i'm trying to see the wisdom of a three-year deal for a 32-year old when you've got three potential starters at double A.... or, perhaps they're thinking of a similar offer (subbing ethier or, god love us, pierre, for dewitt) to get jason bay? all i'm suggesting is the acquisition of another mid-level, older ML-ready pitcher could be about flexibility.
Ta (田) just means "field." It's usually used for "rice field," (after all, it's Japan), but not exclusively.
I really think we're just going to have to live with Pierre on the roster in ST; I think a lot depends on whether or not Torre is willing and able to make Pierre be a fairly valuable (if hideously overpriced) 4th OF. As a 4th OF, Pierre actually in my opinion becomes useful; he can play all three OF positions, has the speed to be an effective pinch-runner, and is left-handed. I'd much rather him be the 4th OF than Repko, and unlike Young, he can play CF.
WWSH
This regime's spending habits are truely late 1990's/early 2000s esque.
I thought that was D4P's image.
?
Pierre can stand in the sun in any of the three places in the outfield. He can't play any of them, particularly RF
Of course, you'll have to compare Kuroda with other free agents, or make extrapolations regarding Dodger farmhands. And arguably, the only real apples-to-apples comparisons that could be made is with free agent pitchers available this season--i.e. the likes of Lohse and Silva.
WWSH
Lowe will be gone after 2008, opening a spot for Kershaw/McDonald/Elbert. Schmidt & Penny will be gone after 2009, opening up another two spots.
Plus, odds are that at least one Dodger starter will be hurt or ineffective in 2008, possibly opening up another spot. If a spot doesn't open up in 2008, that will be great for the team.
Who's going to put him in right field?
Sure, he can be a pinch runner. So can a ton of other players.
What does being left handed have to do with anything, if he cant get on base or hit for power?
Pierre acquiring any amount of playing time is bad. There's no redeeming value in Juan Pierre.
would you seriously want to see him in right field, ever?
if pierre was the mets' right fielder in that infamous playoff 2006 playoff game against us, both kent and drew would have scored standing up.
? D4P and JoeyP have been very pessimistic about the signing from the get-go. And Jon's been hardly optimistic. I think Nate's been the only really aggressively optimistic regular poster.
WWSH
I understand the need for controlling for the year. No one (not even Ned) thinks Kuroda will outpitch Penny.
You're fine with a guy making 12+ mils performing a little better than Kaz Ishii?
3 starters (Lowe, Schmidt, Kuroda) now make more than Brad Penny does. Thats just not right.
A lot of 4th OFs have poor defense; Pierre would actually have decent rage in RF--probably better than many regular LFs who are stashed there for a reason. His arm stinks, but if he isn't playing everyday, it's not as much of an issue.
WWSH
However, I tend to start worrying about the money we are wasting given Colletti's history. It would be nice to save some for next year and a big pitcher. This Kuroda signing may be two years too many as it is. I don't want that 4 year albatross of Pierre on us for much longer.
At the risk of not being hip; a better choice of adjectives may be in order.
If the Dodgers signed Brad Penny as a free agent this year, he'd make the most on the team. It happens. It's just an issue of timing.
The baseball free agent market establishes how much a pitcher costs; if Kuroda is better than the likes of Silva, Lohse, or in-house options, then yes, he's worth 12 mil. The comparison isn't Kuroda vs. Ishii, it's Kuroda vs. Loaiza/Schmidt/McDonald/Kershaw/other free agents.
WWSH
i think i see your point - pierre isn't horrific for a 4th outfielder. if i squint, i guess, i can see some value if he's in LF only, and only as a late inning BR replacement. that said, if he's taking ABs from delwyn young... well, that's not a good swap. i'm actually optimistic that young might hit his way into some regular playing time. i'm less upbeat if juan pierre is getting regular ABs after mid-May... unless those ABs are for the white sox.
I believed.
Several players on the Dodgers make more money than Martin and Loney combined too.
Baseball salaries aren't supposed to be an example of a meritocracy.
Having a RF'er with no arm is a huge issue. You are giving up an extra base on every hit to RF with a runner on first or fly ball to right with a runner on second not to mention the runners scoring from second on a single (which is an issue wherever he plays in the OF).
No way will we ever see Pierre in right. I still have my doubts whether we will ever see him there (I certainly hope not).
at some point, penny will be making more than a lot of people on his team when he won't be worth it. a calcified, if weird element of modern pro sports is paying for the echo...
you just have to look at the team as a whole, and put it all in context. do we have a good team? yes. sure, $110 million or whatever is a bit on the high side to field a team, and you'd like a team like the dodgers to make the most of their financial advantages, but considering what was available this offseason, we didn't do too badly.
whoops: i meant that as response to 84. i'll retire to my kids' cookie party now.
LA Times, 1/10/2002.
" In introducing Japanese pitcher Kazuhisa Ishii to fans Wednesday, Dodger pitching Coach Jim Colborn offered an encouraging comparison.
"He's a scaled-down version of Randy Johnson," Colborn said.
Ishii stands 6 feet 2, not 6-10. His fastball tops 90 mph but never hits 100 mph. He does not come equipped with scraggly hair or a Cy Young Award. But he is a left-handed pitcher who does not hide behind breaking balls.
"He's not a touchy-feely pitcher like Tom Glavine," said Colborn, who became familiar with Ishii when he worked in Japan. "He goes after the hitters."
Looking up Ishii's stats, he was worse than I thought.