When the GM this year gets re-assigned to Media Director. Could be worthwhile :-)

Repeat after me, fellas. There is only one game tonight. Win the one game. There is only one.

Two of those prospects -- Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen -- ended up being key cogs in a 116-win team just three years later.

* Interim GM Lee Pelekoudas is in the running. But as Bavasi's former righthand man and assistant GM, he'd be an odd choice.
* Tigers assistant GM Al Avila was considered for the Mariners' job back in '03 and would love the opportunity.
* Keep in mind that the long-term GM will probably not be hired until after the season. Ken Rosenthal speculates on Brian Cashman, Kevin Towers, A's assistant GM David Forst, and D'Backs director of player personnel Jerry Dipoto.
* Statistically Speaking discusses the Chris Antonetti possibility (he's Cleveland's assistant GM).
* Larry Stone has all sorts of ideas. Aside from those already mentioned here, he tosses out Pat Gillick (unlikely), Gerry Hunsicker, Kim Ng, Dan Evans, Bob Watson, Peter Woodfork, A.J. Hinch, Tony LaCava, Jed Hoyer, Ben Cherington, Jim Duquette, and Paul DePodesta.

Hu alone can't bring down the "everyone is decent" offense, but combined with Pierre and potentially someone else, it's a problem.

It appears to me that Cano's a guy that hasnt developed any plate discipline, the pitchers have figured him out. Therefore they dont throw him anything near the strike zone, and he likewise wont take a walk and when he does put it in play, he has very little power since the pitches he's hitting are probably bad pitches.

I dont think I'd trade for Cano. The lack of plate discipline is very concerning, something he's getting worse at as his career progresses.

Cano was slightly lucky on batted balls the last two years, and this year he's been amazingly unlucky. That pretty much explains the discrepancy.

http://tinyurl.com/5huoez

Sometimes BABIP is a fluke and sometimes it's indicative of just failing to hit the ball hard. In Cano's case, his LD% isn't actually that far below last year's numbers, but the consistent decline makes me think his BABIP is actually catching up to his low LD%.

Plus his defense has greatly improved over the last couple years. The Yankees would be insane to trade him for Lowe.

That's like having your stock upgraded from "Sell" to "Don't buy".

Even Willis hasn't been given enough opportunity to suck to make up the gap.

The fact that the press sometimes get the story wrong is another matter.

I have a strange attachment to the Marlins right now. For some reason I find the team very likeable, even though technically its boring to watch. Of all the Marlins teams I've seen, this year's team is the one that has potential to stay together. They're mostly home grown, to boot, if we count prospects via trade as home grown (i.e. Ethier and Hanley).

As of right now, I dont know how much of an impact the traded prospects have on the Marlins, but at worst, you could call it "addition by subtraction." Hanley is amazing!

Cabrera isn't doing too well right now, I agree, but he's starting to heat up and could still finish the year with great numbers. It was an entirely stupid deal still.

Juan wept.

Josh Beckett trade, 2005

The Sox, the sources said, will send to Florida two of the organization's top prospects, Double A shortstop Hanley Ramírez and Double A righthander Anibal Sánchez, as well as another lesser prospect...

Who got the better end of that deal?? Hanley Ramirez is easily one of the top five players in the game. He is phenomenal with the bat.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/11/22/sox_agree_on_trade_for_beckett/

Anyway, last season Pierre was a +9 in CF, good enough for 9th among MLB CF, but he ranked 30th in the "Throwing" category. Runners took an extra base 99 out of 146 times (67.8% of the time), and he had 2 "kills".

This year in LF, Pierre is a 0 in LF, but that's still good enough for 14th in MLB. And his throwing stats have improved. Opponents have advanced an extra base 19 of 53 times, only 35.8%. That's good enough for 11th place.

Jon asked about laughingstocks. Everyone was laughing at the Mets when they traded Kazmir. The only way you can count that as working out is if Zambrano had done well and Kazmir flopped.

I think the Tigers were roundly laughed at when they signed Pudge and Magglio. I think we'd be happy to have Magglio right now but if we had given him that contract the pitchforks would have been out in force.

6
Pierre is not part of my plan. My plan looks like this:
Martin, Loney, DeWitt/Abreu, Furcal Or DeJesus/Hu, LaRoche, Kemp, Jones, Ethier
or
Martin, Loney, Hudson or Ellis, Furcal or Hu/DeJesus, DeWitt, Ethier, Kemp, LaRoche

No superstars but only one offensive weakness in either scenario. Assuming A Jones comes back, which he will just to deflate Scareduck.

I wouldn't have to try to make a case that we could have a succesful team with a group of average to above average offensive players if Miggy was on the team. If I was to bet on who will have the biggest 2nd half in baseball, my bet would be placed squarely on his shoulder.

32 I agree that if we get rid of Pierre somehow, we're looking good in the future.

Sob.

In his other games, he has a 3.39 ERA.

Thats true.

2006: 18bbs in 482 Abs
2007: 39bbs in 617 Abs
2008: 14 bbs in 258 Abs

I did love the Carlos Quentin trade at the time. Still shocked the Diamondback GM gave him up so easily. It was like our Navarro deal except they got more but it was still the idea of making room for a more talented player but not getting enough for the guy your giving up on. I'm still worried that is what will happen with LaRoche but BH tells me that is not going to happen.

Only 31 more business days until I quit...

The hardest hit ball I have ever seen in person was on the third base line of a Sacramento Rivercats Game (AAA). I got a lot of flack from my Mother-in-law, since I ducked for survival rather than trying to protect her.

I had no glove!

C- Martin
2b-LaRoche
RF-Kemp
1b-Teixeira
LF-Dunn
CF-Druw
3b-Dewitt
SS-DeJesus

Ship Loney/Ethier for prospects to fill the upper levels--preferably 3rd base/SS prospects. Ship Juan for anything. If he cant get traded, then keep him on the team but force the manager to keep him as 4th OF'er for his last 3 years in LA.

Sign Dunn/Teixeira.

Starting Staff:
Billingsley
Kershaw
Penny
Kuroda
McDonald/Kuo etc.

I wouldnt mind signing Sabathia, but I think signing Dunn/Teixeira both are much more pressing concerns. Seems the Dodgers turn out more quality pitchers than true power hitters these days.

1. Andruw Jones having a rebirth
2. Andruw Jones giving birth

56 that's cold, but funny.

Or, is her name Sarah? (Sorry, but I couldn't resist. So sue me.)

Mark Sweeney was playing in the Cape Cod summer league when he hit a check-swing foul ball into the seats near the plate, hitting a woman in the arm.

"I'll never forget it. She was wailing and screaming," said Sweeney, who was ordered back in the batter's box, where he feebly struck out.

Maybe Sweeney is still playing with pent-up trauma from this incident.

Look, your lecture about the warning flags about Jones has just about become the ultimate rule 8 violation here. We have all seen the evidence. That doesn't mean it was an iron-clad guarantee that Jones was going to tank. Nevertheless, if there was a lesson to be learned, it's that Colletti should have looked at the kind of evidence the Hardball Times article offered. I tend to doubt that Colletti will learn that lesson, regardless of whether Jones OPSes .500 or 1.000. So you might as well have him OPS 1.000 - because, you know, if he did, we might actually win something.

AND THAT'S...WHY...YOU...READ..HARDBALL...TIMES!

Apparently were not the only NL West team who does dumb moves to placate the media.

For the Dodgers to win 86 games, [they must finish] 55-38, a .591 winning percentage.

Four teams have done that well thus far, and the Dodgers would have to do it for about one-third more games.

~sigh~ (if I may borrow from underdog.)

(Sigh)

I tried the demo, but it had a lot of bugs, so I reinstalled version 2. I will wait a few more months to make the switch

I'm sure Joe Sheehan was aware of the same evidence when he called the Jones signing "far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter." For those (like me) that wish Colletti had someone of the Baseball Prospectus ilk on staff- how can the Jones signing be cited as an example of Colletti's lack of statistical savvy?

{tumbleweed}

Plenty of people raised eyebrows at Joe Sheehan's assessment of Andruw Jones. He seemed to have totally downplayed Jones' age, wear & tear, and peripherals from 2007.

Just stating a guy had a down year, and not stating why he'll bounce back but that he "just will"---->is old school baseball media 101. Surprised that Sheehan fell victim to it.

{tumbleweed}

The Yankees hiring Casey Stengel was considered a laughingstock move at the time. He was considered too much of a clown to be a successful manager, and had failed miserably in two prior managerial stints.

When you look a bit more closely at Jones' season, though, you find that many of his indicators were stable. His walk and strikeout rates were slightly worse, but within the bounds of fluctuation. In total, 2007 was a typical Andruw Jones season less 15 homers, five singles, and some intentional walks. His fly-ball rate was unchanged, it's just that the balls didn't go as far. Given Jones' age and the stability of so many elements to his performance, I'm certain that he's going to bounce back to his established level, which in a neutral park would look like .265/.330/.500, with plus defense in center. He's the player people suddenly think Torii Hunter is. [Ed. note: Nate Silver adds that a PECOTA for Jones as a Dodger yields up .258/.345/.488 with 29 home runs and a 28.5 VORP. Tasty.]

When you look a bit more closely at Jones' season, though, you find that many of his indicators were stable. His walk and strikeout rates were slightly worse, but within the bounds of fluctuation. In total, 2007 was a typical Andruw Jones season less 15 homers, five singles, and some intentional walks. His fly-ball rate was unchanged, it's just that the balls didn't go as far.

Keith Law also endorsed the signing and chalked up '07 to the balky elbow:

In a vacuum, this is an outstanding signing for the Dodgers. Had Andruw Jones had a season closer to his 2006 or 2005 performances, he would have been in line for a five- or six-year deal in the $100 million area... Jones is still one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, and up until 2007 -- when he allegedly played with a hyper-extended elbow -- was good for an OBP near .350 and 30-40 homers every year. He's also about to turn 31, so he's still in or close to his prime as a hitter. And the Dodgers get the advantage of two of his peak or near-peak years without having to sign him into his mid- or late 30s.

The mileage argument sounds like hindsight to me. If Kent can OPS .850 until 39, I'm not going to start worrying about guys who debuted at 19.

Yes. This is one of the reasons why BABIP isn't strictly an issue of "luck".

And I am certainly guilty of using their writings as additional backup to support my position in a discussion.

No publication gave higher praise than they did for the Schmidt and Jones signings.

But they are not perfect (nor do they claim to be) and certainly they cannot predict injuries or other things can affect performance.

Let's just say that BP and Hardball Times had legitimate arguments to make on Jones and so far HT is looking right.

Pierre
Jones
Schmidt

With plenty of supporting cast like Loiza, Nomar, Wolf, etc…

NedCo is batting below the Mendoza line.

No bugs in the new version for me so far.

I consider those pushes at this point. Too early to tell if either will be worth it in the end.

John Beamer: I like this deal. Colletti has made short term, high priced deals his signature of recent years, what with the signing of Jason Schmidt and Rafael Furcal to short but over-priced deals. I argued here that Jones is worth three-years and $53 million (on a short contract), which is in line with what he has been given. It is a canny move. Jones is likely to recovery form and be a power bat for the Dodgers next year and if he doesn't LA isn't saddled with a six-year mammoth contract.

Dodgers DL Penny

As expected, Brad Penny was placed on the disabled list today and Eric Stults has been recalled.

.249/.344/.503, 34 HR, 110 RBI

"While $18 million per looks like a lot, the years make it a good risk. Now, I'm not sure if Jones (or Hunter and definitely not Pierre) is the right player for the Dodgers, but they're determined to buy the NL West, no matter what the team's strengths and weaknesses are. At least there's a slim chance that Juan Pierre will end up riding the pine, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I do think the odds are that Andruw Jones is a better player than Hunter."

--------------

I think at this point I'm ready to say to the I-told-you-so folks: Fine. You're brilliant, and you were right. This time. But if the same situation came up again, it would still be a good move, and I'd still make it. I still feel this is a move that was bad only in hindsight.

Either that, or I need to learn whatever sort of voodoo enables one to know which 30-year-old players have enough "mileage" that their careers are essentially over.

I think NedCo is batting over the Mendoza line, but not by much. He's kind of the Luis Maza of GMs.

By the Pigeonhole Principle (yes, I actually did learn something in combinatorics!) Juan Pierre plus Andre Ethier plus Matt Kemp plus Andruw Jones equals four starting outfielders, but major league baseball is played with only three starting outfield slots. Therefore, the Dodgers had a congested outfield. And as expected, Pierre is playing half time.

Also --

Look, your lecture about the warning flags about Jones has just about become the ultimate rule 8 violation here.

Wow, I didn't know you found it so very offensive. I won't bring it up again, but people keep talking about the signing and it's not the same ones every time.

Why would signing a non-elite power hitter not past his prime dissuade Colletti from signing an elite power hitter in his prime?

Pierre is playing because Jones and Furcal are hurt, not because of congetstion.

We were all gleeful that the team had finally made a baseball decision for baseball reasons, and were willing to make Pierre a part-time player despite the embarassment and wasted funds.

Jones let us down, and opened the door for Pierre to return to fulltime status. But really, it was Furcal's injury that guaranteed Pierre a daily spot, since Joe thinks he needs a runny guy. With Furcal in the lineup, I suspect Young would've gotten some of Pierre's starts.

Furcal-Jones-Pierre is the Bermuda Triangle of the Dodgers 2008 season.

Is it your opinion then that if Jones and Furcal came off the DL tomorrow, Pierre heads back to the bench? I would be really surprised if he doesn't still play a majority of the time, regardless of Ethier "winning" the LF job at the beginning of the year.

Pierre is not playing as well as Kemp and Ethier.

I do think Joe would weasel a few "platoon" starts for Pierre and if Kemp had a couple bad days in a row, he might "give him a break." And surely Jones will need rest. Pierre would start maybe 1/4th of the games using those dodges.

LOL! I'm imagining Pierre as a couple of sunny-side-up eggs.

125 - If Jones and Furcal were 100 percent and Jones, Ethier and Kemp were hitting, then I believe Pierre would once again become a fourth outfielder, and there really isn't much reason to think otherwise.

131 But yes, you're not alone there, bud.

Are you assuming he plays well when he comes back from his bulging back? I'm assuming he doesn't. He would do well to sign a one year deal with the Dodgers while he's re-habbing his back and using next year to spring board to his next big deal. It will give us another year to look at Hu/Dejesus and if Furcal can't stay healthy next year, we have to hope that Abreu/Hu/DeJesus will be ready to help more then the Belanger trio that we have going right now.

Actually I'm looking forward to watching Nomar play SS in a sick kind of way. As Underdog has said before, he's not blocking anyone for the 1st time and we really need some offense. It is a silly dream but it would be cool if Nomar could hit like he did in the 2nd half last year as a SS and not kill us in the field.

If my math is right, that means he's actually so bad that he's causing a hole in the space time continuum.

But seriously, he's 102% worse than average player. Mind-blowing.

Cnt Player G From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+
1 Andruw Jones 1761 1996 2007
2 Al Kaline 1720 1953 1965
3 Vada Pinson 1697 1958 1969
4 Ty Cobb 1694 1905 1917
5 Ken Griffey 1680 1989 2000
6 Mickey Mantle 1675 1951 1962
7 Hank Aaron 1656 1954 1964

Needless to say, this is not a list of slackers and early flameouts, although granted, Jones does have the most games played in the group. Going through them one-by-one:

- Kaline endured a bad year at age 25, but rebounded strongly. Got to 3,000 hits and the HOF. He turned in the best OPS+ of his career at age 32 and the third-best at age 31. (Which, of course, are the two ages we signed Andruw for.)

- Pinson was a player who peaked early and was already well into the decline phase of his career by age 28 or 29. He did rebound to have an excellent season at 31. His last excellent season came at age 33; he was average for a couple of years after that and then retired at 36.

- Ty Cobb collected 1800 hits after age 30. Posted averages of .382 at age 31 and .384 at age 32. Started to decline at age 36 but was still an above-average hitter until his retirement at age 41.

- Griffey is basically the one player on this list who can be seen as a cautionary tale. He began to decline at age 28 and has been on a gradual downward slide ever since. He OPS+ed 124 at age 31 and 103 at age 32. He was, however, far from finished, posting an excellent full season as late as age 37.

- Mantle was already hampered by injuries by age 30, but was nonetheless the best hitter in the AL at age 30, age 31, and age 32. He started to decline at age 33, falling all the way to a 137 OPS+. The next year he rebounded to 170. He was a superb hitter until the day he retired.

- Hank Aaron played more games after age 31 than all but two outfielders in history, during which time he had 1686 hits and 389 home runs. His yearly OPS+ numbers during this time were 160, 142, 168, 163, 177, 148, 194, 147, 177, 128. That 142 at age 32 is the closest he ever came to having a bad year, but he rebounded with a vengeance.
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+

So, to sum up, none of these guys was remotely done by age 30. Every one of them had multiple outstanding seasons at age 31 or later. Every one of them played until his late thirties. Every one of them is a player who would have paid off in spades if you signed him to a two-year contract just after he turned 30.

Pierre, LF
DeWitt, 3B
Kent, 2B
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
Ethier, RF
Berroa, SS
Billingsley, P

Pierre: 24 G, 6 late-innings substitutions
Jones: 31 G, 3 late-innings substitutions
Ethier: 28 G, 1 late-innings substitution
Kemp: 30 G, 7 late-innings substitutions

That's a lot of playing time for a fourth outfielder. Looking at the Dodgers lineup page over that span, it appears that Pierre started over Kemp nine times, over Ethier five times, and over Jones four times.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2008_lu.shtml

BTW, on 135 you ought to note that Furcal wasn't even available for most of May, being he only played through May 5.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kershcl01.shtml

146
DeWitt has Torre under his spell. Maybe it will pay off with a splashball.

.196/.260/.217

LaRoche has 6 ABs...why?

Jay Bruce is coming back to earth after his Braun like debut. An outfield of Dunn/Hamilton/Bruce would get me to buy a ticket.

Nice job! I always like it when someone mentions Al Kaline. :)

I am not sure why anyone believes that Pierre will be relegated to the bench if and when Jones returns. From May 1st to May 18th (the last start that Jones made) the at bats for our outfielders were distributed as such:

Pierre 63 (this includes starting all 5 games in May that Furcal started in)
Kemp 55
Jones 44
Ethier 40

I can see no reason to expect that Jones return would greatly change this distribution. Also it is worth noting that Pierre is OPSing .662 to Ethier's .648 in June.

Likely HOF outfielder. Debuted at 19.

Age 27 42 HR (161 gms)
Age 28 21 HR (135 gms)
Age 29 22 HR (130 gms)

Joined Dodgers at Age 29.

Age 30 34 HR (152 gms)
Age 31 43 HR (141 gms)
Age 32 36 HR (143 gms)

that's what wikipedia has, is this correct

http://tinyurl.com/3gyuk6

I've probably purchased the P-E twice in my life, both times at a Denny's. But he's getting them page views from all over the country. I hope his ad dept. knows how to monetize that (they probably don't.)