In posting my 2009 payroll worksheet, I neglected to account for the fact that Russell Martin and Andre Ethier would probably be eligible for salary arbitration even though they have less than three years of service, per the MLB Players Association contract.

A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard took this path to earning a $10 million salary this year, something that Andrew Grant of True Blue L.A warned back in February would have implications for the Dodgers.

Because of (Howard), there's no reason for Russell Martin, or any of our young players who are nearing arbitration, to accept a long term deal at any type of discount. Martin can easily point to Howard's deal and ask for six million or so in arbitration. With four years of arbitration coming up, how much does Martin stand to make for 2009-2012?

And again in March:

Players just a year away from arbitration realize that they're about to get paid, and have no reason to provide the team any type of discount. The more these stories come out, the sooner the Dodgers are going to have to wrap up their arbitration eligible players so we don't end up bleeding money by 2011. The Dodgers don't just have to worry about Martin and Broxton now. They need to look into wrapping up guys like (Chad) Billingsley, (Matt) Kemp, and even (James) Loney who we're pretty sure will be part of the team for years to come before they come close to their arbitration paydays. Again, we can thank Tal Smith and the Phillies for this whole mess.

No Dodger third-year player will get Howard's $10 million, but if eligible, Martin, Ethier and Broxton will definitely get seven figures. Mark Teahen, who had a 98 OPS+ in 2007 as a first baseman/rightfielder, ended up settling before his winter 2008 hearing for $2,337,500. He had two years and 155 days of service. Martin is at 2:150, Ethier 2:153.

On the other hand, Casey Kotchman only got $1.45 million from the Angels despite a 119 OPS+ in 137 games. Mets outfielder Ryan Church ended up with a $2 million deal coming off a 114 OPS+ season.

Though Martin is in many ways the backbone of the Dodger youth movement, Los Angeles might derive a short-term benefit this offseason thanks to his decline from 2007 to 2008: his slugging percentage falling from .469 to .396 and his defense becoming less impressive. On the other hand, Ethier emerged as the team's best non-Manny hitter.

Don't hold me to these numbers, but it seems to me that both these players will earn at least $2 million next year, whether they go to arbitration or make a deal before their hearing.

As for Broxton, who passed the three-year mark this season, he can look at the 2008 contract of lesser talent Scott Proctor, worth $1,150,000, and realize that's the worst he can do.

Interestingly, Kim Ng is reportedly an expert at handling arbitration hearings, but she might not be around to do so this winter.