Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
I really have not written much about Casey Blake. There's something about him that I find completely resistible. I find his bat resistible, his glove resistible, his beard resistible. But with the Dodgers perhaps signing him as early as today, I should probably say something about him.
Here's a link to the Baseball Prospectus leaders in Value Over Replacement Player for third basemen. Blake's 2008 stints with Cleveland and Los Angeles are divided, so here's the top 10 if you add them together.
1) Chipper Jones
2) David Wright
3) Alex Rodriguez
4) Aramis Ramirez
5) Troy Glaus
6) Evan Longoria
7) Jorge Cannot Cantu
8) Casey Blake
9) Melvin Mora
10) Adrian Beltre
Pretty incredible, huh? On the level just before bonafide All-Stars, you find unlikely standout Cantu, and then Blake.
However, though except for one disastrous ninth inning in San Francisco he looks fairly solid in the field, Blake doesn't fare as well on defensive measurements, particularly the Ultimate Zone Ratings that were recently published on Fangraphs, where he finishes near the bottom of the pack. Beltre, for example, ranks high. But Beltre would cost players in trade. For the 2009 season, Blake is probably the better pickup.
Even though Blake is 35 years old, which means that his production should be tapering as time passes, his ability to play three infield positions without embarrassing himself at the plate should help him remain a useful contributor over the next two or three years. If Chin-Lung Hu or Tony Abreu can step up in the coming year, so much the better. But if they don't, the Dodgers have a decent stopgap.
The main qualm I have about a Blake signing is by passing on him and saving a few million here, it could make a CC Sabathia or Manny Ramirez deal more tenable. Because if you add one of those two guys to the roster, you'll be better off even with a $400,000 man at third base, or for that matter Blake DeWitt at third and a Mark Loretta-led combo at second.
But even though he doesn't excite me, Blake won't be a bad guy to have around if the Dodgers bring him back.
* * *
The Dodgers added another body for Spring Training, reports Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise: Hector Luna, 29 in February with a career 84 OPS+ in 771 plate appearances. Luna has played every position but pitcher and catcher in the bigs.
* * *
Update: Ken Gurnick of MLB.com writes that "Blake played most of the month of September with a badly bruised biceps muscle that hampered him hitting and throwing."
vr, Xei
No worries. He can always transition into Mueller's old job.
I like the way things are shaping up. Putting Blake in the lineup while keeping prospects is great. I also like te Loretta signing quite a bit. We fill two holes for just over $7 million and get a ton of versatility (if not range) in the meantime.
All that is left is CC. Go with him and forget Manny. Delwyn Young, Jones, and Pierre can go after the last OF spot.
Or better yet, trade Pierre and let Young beat out Andruw Jones' carcass for the remaining OF spot.
Links are nice.
http://tinyurl.com/6o5m5h
Other kind of "fare".
What a bunch of crap. Seriously, they wanted BILLINGSLEY or KERSHAW???
Home: 1.75
Away: 4.28
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2008/12/08/derrick-rose-cut-himself-badly-while-slicing-an-apple-in-bed-or/
Bucholz/Lester/Kennedy/Hughes - They might be happy at this point they didn't trade for Bucholz or Kennedy or Hughes.
Why aren't the Dodgers in the mix for
a) Sheets?
b) Lowe?
Sabathia -- that would be a prize. But I don't like the length combined with the IP already. And no matter what Tommy Lasorda says, the Dodgers will have to match or come close to the Yankees' offer. I say, let the Yanks have him. They don't play in our division.
Sheets or Lowe could be had for a shorter span, thus lesser risk profile. Lowe doesn't seem to get hurt. Sheets is more of a risk that way, but the potential reward is huge.
We've all been there.
Peavy's ERA in 2007
Home: 2.51
Away: 2.57
You are valuing him based on his 211 Dodger at bats. Historically he's been better then the median 3rd baseman. What is your alternative for 3rd or 2nd base? Are any of the premium 3rd baseman currently under contract all of the sudden going to become Dodgers? Just not many fish available right now so plug the hole with an adequate solution and look to improve elsewhere where talent abounds.
People always see me and think "Bob." Some also think "Hugh Jackman." An easy mistake to make, I think.
Peavy - 134 ERA+ / 173.2 IP in 2007
Zambrano - 114/188.2
Harden - 206/148
Dempster - 151/206.2
Lilly - 109/204.2
That's pretty darned good. It's going to be fun crushing their spirit in the 2009 NLCS.
1B: Loney
2B: DeWitt/Loretta
SS: ???
3B: Blake
LF: Ethier
CF: Jones/Pierre
RF: Kemp
Just need a SS and a power hitting OF.
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Loney
Kemp
Blake
DeWitt/Lorretta
Jones/Pierre
That lineup isn't going to be the best but it should be above average. That being said, I still think we'd need an additional good SP.
Scott Boras met with the Dodgers late Monday might to discuss the return of Manny Ramirez. Boras told the Dodgers delegation that Ramirez is open to coming back to L.A., but sources familiar with the meeting told ESPN.com that the Dodgers did not put their two-year, $45-million contract offer back on the table.
I know that it is premature, but how great would a Furcal/Loretta/Blake/CC offseason be? Fill in Young in the OF in case Jones can't lay off the KFC, sign a bullpen arm (Chan Ho?) and this offseason would beat every expectation that I had for Nedders.
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Kemp
Loney
Jones :)
Blake
Dewitt
Lowe has disputed this, on the record. He says it's a myth. He came to believe the Dodgers had no interest in his return.
Yup, I would hate that Cub trade. As Eric pointed out that could be a killer rotation. Not bad for a team in chap 11.
http://tinyurl.com/5fbb32
They probably don't based on the fact he wants a four year deal. I'm sure they would be interested in a shorter term deal but he wouldn't be so that means he has no interest unless the market falls out from underneath him and he has to take lesser years.
I refuse to think that they are going to let both of these FA's go by. But they could...
I am still in awe that we get a platoon infielder who can really hit lefties and play three positions and an average 3B for $8 million combined. Finding an even average 3B for that much is hard if you look at the deal Melvin Mora got.
http://tinyurl.com/55r56v
"Blake played most of the month of September with a badly bruised biceps muscle that hampered him hitting and throwing."
The oval of success!
Coach Wooden sounds amazing for 98 years old I must say.
I wonder what this means for CC and/or Manny?
This previous ex-Indian acquisition by the Dodgers was 16th in MLB in ERA+ for his career up to that point (http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/sC7F) with a 115 ERA+.
Sabathia is 15th in MLB in ERA+ for his career (http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/PYtA) with a 121 ERA+.
This previous Dodger acquisition proceeded to go 87-42 (a .674 winning %) for LA for 6 of the next 7 seasons, with a 118 ERA+ (13th best in MLB over that time frame; http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/8FuN). However, despite his success this pitcher is more known for the season he missed (and subsequent surgery that bears his name) than the 6 seasons he pitched (quite effectively). He was also 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 postseason starts with the Dodgers.
*Point of note: Future Dodger Rudy Seanez also debuted with the Indians at age 20, but he wasn't a starter.
>>Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti denied reports that CC Sabathia told him, "I want to be a Dodger." But the two of them did speak casually and joked with one another in a chance meeting on Sunday night, Colletti said. The Dodgers do fit Sabathia's profile of a prospective employer: a National League team on the west coast. But Dodgers owner Frank McCourt has not yet authorized Colletti to get into the Sabathia sweepstakes, even to see what that NL West discount might be.
I always thought of TJ as a White Sox.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3756550
http://tinyurl.com/6c9xlv
My first real memory of TJ was as an Angel.
Also as much as I liked TJ, I would rather they kept Dick Allen.
We at Humma Industries neither approve nor disapprove. Too bad about the third year, but 17.1 is remarkably low, low enough that even the worst case scenario -- that he needs to be DFAd in 2011 -- isn't so horrible.
We acknowledge the Blake signing, and with the exception of the two sentences above, we stand mute.
If we sign Furcal, it means we have made an effort to shore up our offense, even if we go with Jones/Pierre at the third outfield position. This could free up some money for CC.
Any way you look at it, CC's a perfect fit for us. If the front office is in any way debating between Manny & CC, the answer has to be becoming clearer. If it's more a matter of payroll, I'm sure we'll find out in the end.
My guess is that Colletti is excited about the prospect of CC, but he's hedging his bets by not committing all his energy/focus into the pursuit. If McCourt says no, expect some Vlad-like vengeance from the fans.
Assuming a $110M payroll, Blake's deal would make up about 5.5% of that with almost 35% coming off of the payroll after 2009 (Jones/Schmidt) and Kuroda's 11% coming off at the end of 2011. Given that, Blake's deal may be annoying, but it still will be a very small fraction of the Dodger payroll.
Think of it as not having to sign a backup corner OF/IF for the next three seasons at $2-3M per year. In that light, the last two years will be akin to only having $3 million in overpayment.
All of this is also based on the assumption that his production will fall off of a cliff. Being optimistic, I think that he will outperform that contract in 2009, be roughly equal to his contract in 2010 and slightly underperform it in 2011.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Would you pay 5 years and 60 million for Young?
Heck no.
I could see him being a better fit for the Twins or Orioles.
The problem with not signing Furcal is Ned is likely to sign someone who is not even an upgrade over DeJesus's current capabilities -- for more years and more money.
No, not a big Young fan.
78
Blake might be pricey in 2010/2011 as a bench piece but it will be nice having a guy who can play all corners of the diamond and give you some punch off the bench while doing so. I fully doubt he will be our starting 3rd baseman for more then 1/2 the contract. As Bob Barker said the "price is right".
I endorse these baby steps. By mid 2010 we will know more about Bell/Gallagher/Baez.
The club could still sign Saito, but it would be as a free agent so they'd have to possibly compete with other clubs for his services.
The Dodgers have already come out as uninterested in Orlando Cabrera/Jack Wilson.
I am not worried about years and money as much as I am prospects for someone like Bartlett or Michael Young.
I fully doubt (player signed by Ned) will be our starting (position) for more than 1/2 the contract.
Brazoban
Repko
Proctor?
Saito?
Berroa?
2009: 1.5 WAR
2010: 1.0 WAR
2011: 0.5 WAR
2009 estimated value of 1 WAR is $5mil.
2009: $5Mil
2010: $5.5Mil
2011: $6.0Mil
Gives us (1.5 5) (1 5.5) + (0.5 * 6)
which comes to $16Mil. Maybe dock it down to $15Mil for the security of the 3 year deal. If I am a little low on my 1.5 WAR then the deal is probably spot on.
vr, Xei
I don't see Ned offering any of the available free agent SS anymore then two years. With these deals I bet he does not go after Cabrera which was my biggest worry. He knows he'd be better off overpaying a little for Rafy and saving his number one pick then losing it for Orlando.
I'm with Canuck, at this point the only A free agent I'm' willing to give up our number one pick for is CC.
Hate to be the team who signs Varitek, or Juan Cruz and loses their pick for them. I like Cruz but the draft picks make him a pricey proposition.
Periodically resting Loney, DeWitt, and/or Ethier against tougher left-handers in favor of Blake and his favorable splits can really give a boost to the offense.
It is an education initiative that will provide college scholarships and character development curriculum to students in four cities: Anaheim, Pine Bluff, Ark., Las Vegas and Minneapolis.
http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/
Some people say they're going to build 50 fields, others just give out scholarships, and send out a press release.
1. Signing Manny pushes Pierre/Jones to the bench, or even -- dare to dream! -- off the roster; and
2. Manny's deal would be for three years only; and
3. Signing Sabathia would push Stults or whoever into AAA; and
4. Sabathia would sign for six years and cost the Dodgers their draft picks;
Does that change anyone's preference as to which of the two they would prefer to see on the team?
The Torii Hunter project
Last 30 seconds of this: Torii Hunter standing at The Big A, back to home plate, staring, staring, staring at the right field fence.
Personally I think 6 years of CC is a better bet than 3 years of Manny.
Signing CC means that Pierre/Jones are starting, as I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe that anyone short of Manny Ramirez (Burrell, Dunn, Abreu, etc) will regulate that duo to the bench permanently.
Therefore, I'll take (if this is an option):
Manny, Furcal, and "veteran starter"
over
CC, Furcal, and Jones/Pierre hitting 8th.
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Ethier
Kemp
Blake
DeWitt
Billz, Kuroda, Kershaw, McDonald, "Unit-like" substance
OVER
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Ethier
Kemp
Blake
DeWitt
Pierre/Jones
CC, Billz, Kuroda, Kershaw, McDonald
Would it be wise for the Dodgers to acquire two more pitchers who can perform at or above the level of Kiroda?
But aren't the Dodgers getting picks for losing Lowe? And wouldn't they also get picks if Manny signs elswhere?
I realize it would be nice to have the 4 picks for Manny & Lowe plus their own pick, but signing CC only costs them their own 1st round pick. Not picks. Or am I missing something?
After the 2009 season is over, I would be in favor of offering Kuroda an extension if he can produce a similar or better year, next year.
If he is to be a Dodger, I definitely see the argument for the second set. The pitching would be so strong that we could carry Pierre/Jones and (likely) DeWitt as below-average contributors. The other spots would be average or better. I can root for that team.
But if Furcal is not a Dodger and instead we have Hu or DeJesus... if the rotation is CC/Billingsley/Kuroda/Kershaw/McDonald but the bottom of the lineup is Blake/DeWitt/Pierre-Jones/Hu-DeJesus, well, I think that would be a frustrating lineup in 2009.
vr, Xei
There are 30 teams in the league and every one of them has fans that are demanding that their team sign one or both of those two guys.
The only reasons we have to believe that either one might like to sign with us is that:
1. Manny ended last season as a Dodger and
2. CC has reportedly said that he wants to be a Dodger.
Both of those are fairly weak tea.
While I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with neither, I'm holding out a realistic hope that we end up with one. I mean, we're the Dodgers. We're in a better position than most, our current situation and all.
City News Service
LOS ANGELES (CNS) - The Los Angeles Dodgers today sued an insurance
company in Los Angeles federal court over starting pitcher Jason Schmidt's
debilitating 2007 shoulder injury that kept him from pitching for the team in
2008.
According to the complaint for breach of contract, Ace American
Insurance Company has failed to pay the team more than $9.2 million owed as a
result of a policy insuring the Dodgers against the risk of Schmidt becoming
unable to play.
Can't link to it because you would need a password to get through.
Such suits aren't that uncommon. The Dodgers were in litigation over Paul Shuey's injury too.
http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_11176249
New post coming up top.
In the immortal words of Deion Sanders in a commercial meeting with Jerry Jones ($15 million or $20 million?), "both."
Starter- 9-1
Reliever- 6-1
For what it's worth, The odds of the Giants going after Manny seem very, very weak. I think they've said as much.
Like Kavula, I am more than prepared for a CC/Mannyless winter. But it's fun to dream.
123 The Dodgers have competitive edges with regards to signing CC and/or Manny that other teams don't have. Specifically: CC has indicated that he wants to play in LA, while Manny has already played here and seemed to have a positive experience.
These two factors would mean that not acquiring either would represent a complete failure on the part of Colletti and McCourt from a PR perspective at the least, and likely from a competitive perspective as well.
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