Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
One hundred and thirteen miles apart as the GPS flies, Dodger executives Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt waxed about the current state of their negotiations with Scott Boras toward a deal with Manny Ramirez, and though much of it was posturing, it did leave me with the feeling that a deal is going to get done.
Speaking at the Bakersfield College Baseball Hot Stove Dinner (which was also attended by Clayton Kershaw and Blake DeWitt), Colletti gave an update on Ramirez without even being asked, according to Zach Ewing of the Bakersfield Californian:
"There's no question we're trying to re-sign Manny (Ramirez). We made the highest offer in the history of the franchise, what would have made him the highest-paid outfielder in the history of baseball. So we didn't start out low. ... All indications are he wants to play here, and hopefully in the next couple weeks we can have some strong dialogue with his representatives and get him in uniform."
At the Professional Baseball Scouts Foundation fete at the Hyatt Century Plaza Hotel, McCourt asserted that the proverbial ball was in Boras' court, and that the Dodgers' last offer to Ramirez wouldn't be their final one, reports Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise.
"Everyone knows we want to have Manny back. We've tried to make it very clear," McCourt said. "I certainly hope that message has been delivered to the player by now."
As for the parameters of the offer, McCourt said, "I always feel there's room for discussion."
For all the impatience that fans might have toward the Dodger approach, the imminent start of Spring Training works in their favor, whether with Ramirez, Adam Dunn or any other outfielder or pitcher they seek to sign. In this game of chicken, the Dodgers have the luxury of being able to move forward as an organization (public relations challenge or not), but the unsigned players on the free agent market are stuck on the sidelines. Unless a New York Yankee suddenly tears an ACL, the opportunities for a player to find a lucrative contract aren't expanding.
And for that matter, with the Manny vs. Dreamfields debacle fading ever so slightly in the past, with few options lining up for Ramirez, the Dodgers are reclaiming a public posture that is valid. There is consensus in the baseball world that a long contract for Ramirez from a National League team is risky if not ludicrous, and no American League team (save for a 11th-hour change-of-heart from an organization like the Angels) seems interested. Boras might say Ramirez deserves five years, but my mother thought I should have started on my eighth-grade flag football team - until someone in power agrees, it ain't reality. Honestly, I doubt Boras has hopes of getting more than four years for Ramirez at this point, which makes three years (or two plus an option) a logical compromise - even shorter than I suggested back in November when questioning why everyone was acting as if the Dodgers were making a mockery of the negotiations.
The Dodgers aren't guaranteed to get Ramirez, but I'd be very surprised if they didn't get someone of value for the outfield. As for pitching, there are some good and not-so-good names still out there, so I would only worry that the Dodgers will make the wrong choice, rather than make no choice at all.
* * *
In New York today, they are mourning Bronx Banter contributor Todd Drew, the sensitive, community-focused writer who passed away from cancer last week at age 41. Alex Belth will read Drew's Yankee Stadium Memory at the service. My sincere condolences to Drew's family and friends.
"Todd was a gentle, compassionate man, but no pushover," Belth wrote. He loved sports writing, loved baseball, and was an unyielding optimist."
Pedro Alvarez says hi.
Pedro Alvarez says hi
Alvarez has yet to play a professional game. I know he has superstar hitting ability (to paraphrase both Baseball America and John Sickels), but it seems a stretch to think Alvarez would be in the big leagues right away.
My guess is he doesn't sniff Pittsburgh until mid-summer at the earliest, and perhaps not even until September.
Plus, the Pirates are now concerned with Alvarez's conditioning, as he showed up to their mini-camp out of shape and with knee problems (related to the extra weight).
I thought this quote was telling:
But the original cause of Alvarez's problems might have been his extended contract dispute last summer. The Pirates were assured all through those three months by Alvarez's side that he was working out, but team officials confirmed this week that he has not been in peak shape since signing the contract -- four years with a $6 million bonus -- in late September
http://tinyurl.com/9kuvzs
I agree that long term Alvarez might be the man at 3B. But he could just as easily move to first if Andy LaRoche finally breaks out this year. Or Andy could move to first (or maybe second) to replace his brother Adam since he'll be a free agent after 2009.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Finally-an-answer-to-Whatever-happened-to-Kevi?urn=ncaab,134910
Seems like a prime candidate for an incentive-based contract, though the Dodgers would no doubt give him 3/50 guaranteed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlhTPNr-_DM
Why was his entire team waiting for him at home plate?
Bob must hate that.
though the Dodgers would no doubt give him 3/50 guaranteed
Yep, no doubt. [is there an emoticon for an eye roll?]
Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady hates each other.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9097924/Sources:-Cubs-trade-CF-Pie-to-Orioles
Poor Ron Artest. Ω
Funny that the team trading the $4 million Fangraphs Value player (in exchange for the negative $300k player) is the one that has to include the extra player.
The key to that article is this:
The Padres wanted Olson as part of a three-team trade for Jake Peavy earlier this off-season, and could ask for him again from the Cubs if those talks revive
If the Cubs' sale goes through in the next month or so, Peavy to the Cubs is going to happen.
Similar perhaps to the Dodgers trading Milton Bradley AND Antonio Perez for Andre Ethier.
I'm trying to figure out how someone with a 6.65 ERA in 132.2 IP was above replacement level.
Still have no idea what Pie did to any of the management in Chicago to convince them to never give him a decent shot.
They wanted, among other things, a pitcher and a hitter that can be impact players. The hitter will be Josh Vitters, and Olson will be the pitcher.
You should probably start by reading through Fangraphs's detailed descriptions of how they calculate value, something I haven't taken the time to do.
The Cubs OF appears to be:
LF - Soriano
CF - Bradley
RF - Fukudome / Reed Johnson
It's not so much that Lou Piniella hates young players, but perhaps he just likes Jake Peavy more than Felix Pie.
I'd rather have Pie-rre.
The reason Olson is above replacement level is because of two things:
1) Fangraphs uses FIP instead of ERA or RA to calculate win value (Olson's 2008 FIP was 5.13)
2) The replacement level FIP for an AL starter was 5.63 in 2008
More explanation as part of a series here:
http://tinyurl.com/8cysz5
Awesome.
Even if that is how teams pay, it's not a good assessment of a player's actual value
For instance, an 8-win player is worth much more than two 4-win players, right?
It brings to mind the classic Buzzie Bavasi quote that he could replace the 16-14 Nolan Ryan with two 8-7 pitchers.
They're trying to isolate what the pitcher is actually responsible for.
From another part of the Fangraphs explanation:
But when confronted with a choice of including way too many non-pitcher inputs or leaving out a few minor actual pitcher inputs, the latter was the better choice. You will get more accurate win values for a pitcher using FIP than you will ERA or RA
http://tinyurl.com/6tkkef
Plus, I think the biggest thing that kills a team is too much mediocrity. If you've filled all your available positions with 3-4 win players, getting an extra win is going to cost what it takes to get a five win player. If you have an 8 and a 0 win player, getting better just takes a one win player.
Sam, who opened the concert? I missed the first 10 minutes or so.
The point is 1-2 win players are easy to find, to replace the 0 win players.
Whereas 5-win players are much more rare and much more expensive to replace the 3-4 win players if we need to improve.
National Anthem by a military baritone. Denzel read. Bruce and Mary J already played. I've given up trying to get it to work alas.
Except that wins themselves are not invaluable. If a win is worth X, an eight win player's value in terms of wins is simply 8X.
Seems to me that this kind of thinking leads people to value stats like Wins and Losses. It's one thing to say that a player's value in a previous season was based on what happened, but if we're going to predict a player's value in the future, we're probably better off using what "should have happened".
Do you have HBO? If not, you can order it today since it will be on again at 10pm EST.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40t_caBnV3c
Take Bimel's FIP and his x-FIP. His x-FIP was a full run higher the past two years over his actual FIP. Is that just luck, or is there something that x-FIP can't pick up about Bimel?
If instead of Kennedy and Pujols you had Prince Fielder and Dan Uggla, to make your team better you'd have to go get someone like Kinsler or Morneau, a far, far more costly investment.
Pujols provides extra value beyond those eight wins with the ability to make easier upgrades elsewhere on the field.
I agree with the point about balance, as we often witnessed the destructive effects of the black holes at the bottom of the Dodger lineup in 2008 with Berroa/Pierre/Bennett, et al.
However, an 8-win player will be an 8-win player regardless of the team he's on. At least that's the point of measuring these win values.
If you have a lineup of eight 4-win players, that's all well and good, but it's expensive to upgrade.
If you have a lineup of four 8-win players and four 0-win players, simply finding four 1 win players (at a cheap cost) would create a 36-win lineup at a cost not much higher than the 32-win lineup.
I think I'm getting lost in the analogies here though. :)
You mean Usher?
And Stevie Wonder is still awesome.
Oops. Yes, Usher.
Although it was nice to see him correct the timeliness of MLK's assassination by changing "early morning" to "early evening." That has bugged me for years.
Well, it is inevitable now.
They aren't going to get rid of Warner if he takes them to a Super Bowl.
http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/08/30/
I assumed it was on a shot or something, so when I finally saw the replays I was stunned that the foul was so far away from the basket, in a tie game.
Horne is not having the smartest year on the basketball court, that's for sure.
Sometimes it's best to wait until the game is over before making absolute proclamations.
Private jets are nice, huh.
Don't underestimate the power of karma in sports.
No offense, because I know some of you are USC fans and all (so I can definitely understand rooting for him), but why talk about Matt Leinart today? He has zero to do with them getting to the SB; Warner has a huge deal to do with it though, and many people, including myself, who thought he was done awhile back should tip our hats to the guy.
Meanwhile, it was fun explaining to my girlfriend, a rare football watcher, how the Cardinals used to play in St Louis (like the baseball team), but then moved to Arizona. And soon after were replaced in St Louis by the Rams. And soon after that those St Louis Rams made the Super Bowl, guided by the same QB who is now guiding the Cardinals, formerly of St Louis, to the Super Bowl. {exhale}
1. Baltimore's players seem to have a hard time catching the ball.
2. Chase Daniel should be a pretty good pro quarterback.
Additional thought:
3. Pittsburgh's secondary doesn't seem to have trouble catching the ball.
There may have been better players, but none with a more heroic story than Kurt Warner's.
Warner threw some passes.
In that case, I'll confine my comment to the "Super Bowl era".
Looks like this will be another super bowl where I don't dislike either team but won't be able to root hard for either of 'em either.
Okay, I'm sending myself to the showers. Nothing like midday soccer under a blazing January sun. Be good, people.
Btw, what did happen to Mike Williams, Eric?
First and foremost, he was lazy. He jumped on the Maurice Clarrett train and came out early even though it was still against the rules. That was some serious bad advice.
But in that year off, it is clear he didn't keep himself in good enough shape to be an NFL player, and his work ethic once he did enter the league left a lot to be desired. Hell, he wasn't good enough to play for the Raiders!!! :)
Mike Williams' failure in the NFL is a sad tale, but one of his own doing.
I didn't realize Seeger is 89! That was a very cool moment, and a pretty neat 90 minutes all around.
From my blog: Seeger: from the blacklist in the Fifties to performing at an Inaugural Concert in 2009. Times change.
That being said, the idea that you have to have won a Super Bowl to become the franchise's most heroic player strikes me as the kind of reasoning that keeps Bert Blyleven out of the Hall of Fame. Even if Warner's the best in the Super Bowl era, I don't think it's fair to confine the discussion to one year of Rams history.
So a Copeland was ousted by the Police?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-PCpRWqXv8
I'll take it under whatever nomenclature they want.
I remember learning
This land is my land,
This land ain't your land.
I got a shotgun,
And you ain't got one.
I'll blow your head off,
If you don't get off.
This land is private prop-er-ty.
These have been two very good Championship games today.
But seeing old Pete Seeger, who we see quite a bit of around the Hudson river and western NE, at an inaugural, was beyond belief. I'm willing to hope for miracles.
Officials of the Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox are crossing their fingers in hopes that the trees will provide enough of a background and block out enough of the desert sunlight.
"That's a no comment right there," said Los Angeles catcher Russell Martin...
http://braves.scout.com/a.z?s=248&p=2&c=831412
(They have a contingency plan in place, which makes you wonder why they don't just cut to the chase and put the fence up, since it's almost guaranteed players won't like it.)
Very cool. Did you run into bhsportsguy? :)
Tommy Lasorda is being farmed out to the junior college hot stove circuit up here in the Seattle area this week (Bellevue actually). I am tempted to go even though I know his short comings.
I didn't know this type of thing still went on. I met the leader of the Big Red Machine at a Hot Stove dinner in the home town of the real (memorable but obscure) John Hale in the mid 70's. This is very near by central valley standards to where Ned and the boys were hanging out for this shindig.
The original performer of that song easily my favorite Don M(a)cLean ever.
So much for my bold predictions, LOL.
At the very least it's a good comp for Billingsley's 2010 contract.
King Felix, after 3 years service time, has 39 wins (Chad has 35 with one fewer year) and a 114 ERA+ (Chad is 132).
Bills will make at least $4m in 2010.
So much for my bold predictions, LOL :)
I had to do it...here are some comments from December 22:
222. silverwidow
Felix Hernandez will make more than Russell Martin this year. That's pretty much his floor ($5M).
223. Eric Stephen
I think $5m is just about Felix's ceiling for 2009. My guess is he has a contract in the $4.5m range, which might still be more than Russell Martin.
So we both overshot :)
Since they settled for $3.8m, there's no way Felix even asked for $5m (because I doubt the Mariners were at $2.6m).
*Paid position
(From Dylan Hernandez, LA Times:)
The Dodgers avoided arbitration with outfielder Jason Repko, signing him to a one-year, $500,000 contract. The deal includes $87,500 in incentives based on plate appearances.
Repko, 28, might figure into the Dodgers' plans if they fail to re-sign Manny Ramirez.
===
That last line made me laugh. Or cry.
I overshot Repko by $100k.
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