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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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5) discussing politics
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And They Play in a Pitchers Park ...
2005-05-19 10:16
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Continue nominating T-shirt slogans here. Talk shop below.

Dodger ERA: 4.69, 21st in the majors

Opponent OPS: .768, 23rd in the majors

Dodger runs per game: 5.18, fifth in the majors

Dodger OPS: .783, fifth in the majors

Comments (51)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-05-19 10:33:33
1.   Dodgerkid
I'm going to take a wild guess and say pitching might be our problem.
2005-05-19 10:37:34
2.   Howard Fox
Dodgerkid, you are so insightful, that is why I visit this website
2005-05-19 10:41:28
3.   Eric Enders
I think the insightfulness of DodgerKid is why we all visit this website, isn't it?
2005-05-19 10:41:55
4.   Dodgerkid
I visit because Eric is oh so cute.
2005-05-19 10:46:30
5.   Howard Fox
I can think of no other reason for visiting.
2005-05-19 10:47:23
6.   Howard Fox
After Roger lost to the fish tosser from Seattle, I don't think we have one good arm left at the Stadium.
2005-05-19 10:58:22
7.   Bob Timmermann
The only Dodger reliever who hasn't given up a home run yet is Carrara.

So, who will be the first Angel to homer against Erickson Friday?
No fair picking Guerrero, that's a gimme.

I'm going for Cabrera.

2005-05-19 10:59:59
8.   Dodgerkid
Finley, he still has power is my prediction.
2005-05-19 11:01:21
9.   Icaros
So, who will be the first Angel to homer against Erickson Friday?

Whoever is leading off.

2005-05-19 11:02:03
10.   Loogy
Is it still a pither's park after the Ravine remodel?
2005-05-19 11:05:01
11.   Howard Fox
the better question is how many home runs does Erickson allow before Tracy gets someone up in the bullpen
2005-05-19 11:07:36
12.   champion of choi
wondering if Tracy will give Choi a shot against junk-baller, Washburn, tomorrow night?
2005-05-19 11:08:57
13.   Howard Fox
isn't Washburn a lefty? no chance Choi starts
2005-05-19 11:10:52
14.   Xeifrank
Link for 2005 All-Star Game:

http://tinyurl.com/9n8x8

Let's make it our goal to get Jason Grabowski into the game as a write in candidate.

vr

Xei

2005-05-19 11:16:11
15.   champion of choi
i thought with Washburn, not an over-powering lefty, Choi may get a shot.

Tracy contends that he doesn't want to "stunt" our fair Choi's progress.

That being said, Washburn is hardly an overpowering lefty. I say give Choi his shot.

2005-05-19 11:22:58
16.   Art H Tracy
I'm the (tied for 2nd) biggest Choi fan here, and I'd love to see him play every day, but as long as Olmedo's hitting I'm alright with sitting Hee Seop down against lefties.

I have this fantasy that Depo and Tracy have hatched a scheme to build up Saenz trade value and let him go at the deadline.

2005-05-19 11:24:55
17.   Landonkk
I have this fantasy that Drew will move to the 5 spot.
2005-05-19 11:28:21
18.   Howard Fox
I'd like to see Choi at first and Saenz at third against all comers...and Drew dropped to 6 or 7 in the lineup
2005-05-19 11:35:16
19.   Bob Timmermann
I think Choi will enjoy Saturday more when he gets to tee off against John Lackey. It's going to be close to 100 too for a day game. It's going to be Coors Field-like I fear.

And Sunday will be an epic Paul Byrd-Derek Lowe matchup!

2005-05-19 11:40:23
20.   JT Dutch
#10

... To answer the question "Is it still a pitcher's park after the remodel?"

There have been 40 games played by the Dodgers; 20 at home and 20 on the road, so this works out nicely.

The Dodgers and their opponents have scored 238 runs (11.9 per game) in the 20 games the Dodgers have played on the road -- and only 172 (8.6 per game) in the 20 games at Dodger Stadium.

It's still early, of course. But all evidence seems to say that Dodger Stadium is as much a pitcher's park now as it ever was.

2005-05-19 11:40:35
21.   Xeifrank
18.

Yep, as long as Old Maid Saenz can play 3B I'd do the same. I might sit Choi against a top tier LHP if after given a fair chance to hit lefties he doesn't do very well, and then put Perez or Edwards at 3B and Old Maid over to 1B.

vr

Xei

2005-05-19 11:44:32
22.   Xeifrank
81 predicted high for LA on saturday, with a RealFeel of 92.

Source: accuweather

So it will be a warm one. Bring your sunscreen. I'll be at a one year olds birthday party (yay!).

vr

Xei

2005-05-19 11:45:43
23.   the OZ
This should be mandatory reading for those who haven't seen it already:

http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~28569~2876856,00.html

All about Weaver, being left in too long, having a tired shoulder, Tracy willing him to be the Staff Ace™ despite knowing that he has a tired shoulder (which renders the 119-pitch outing inexcusable).

See, LA Times? This is what sports reporters do - write stories about the team and its players beyond in-game accounts, instead of focusing on the owner.

2005-05-19 12:00:05
24.   JT Dutch
... As for Drew, I would bat him second until his slugging percentage rose higher than Cesar Izturis'.
2005-05-19 12:23:54
25.   bigcpa
Quite a bizarre split on Opponent OPS:

Starters 11th (13th in 2004)
Relievers 25th (3rd in 2004)

Houlton, Carlyle and Schmoll have accounted for 35% of our reliever IP. Correction around the bend.

Nomo/Lima started 25% of games in 2004. Erickson + injury concerns kind of wash. Still the overall pitching should approximate 2004- 6th in OPS, 4th ERA.

2005-05-19 12:27:07
26.   Howard Fox
the way Drew is hitting, you can't have hi in the middle of a rally...I put him with Bako or Edwards for now
2005-05-19 12:44:38
27.   Steve
Agree with 24.

On the Daily News article, also agree that it's better than what's in the Times, but the author fails to note that the reason we're paying Jeff Weaver 9 million a year is because that's the contract we took on to get rid of Kevin Brown. Such is the price of getting out of those kinds of contracts (as the Mariners are soon to find out).

2005-05-19 12:52:31
28.   ElysianPark62
Weaver seems to be proving his reputation as a head case. Serves up two-strike HR's to people. Those are sure to kill you.

Normally with a Boras client in his walk year, you expect him to post big numbers. If Weaver doesn't turn it around, he'll be pissing away a big payday.

2005-05-19 12:59:15
29.   JT Dutch
... Among Dodger regulars, Drew is third in OBP (fourth if you count the Saenz-Choi platoon), so I wouldn't term Drew a rally killer -- and at this point, he's not enough of an RBI man to bat low in the order. Drew takes a lot of pitches (enabling Izturis to steal second if he so desired) and tends to put the ball in the air (limiting the dreaded DP), so I don't think 2nd's a bad option at all.

My lineups would be:

Izzy, Drew, Kent, Choi, Bradley, Ledee, Phillips, Edwards, pitcher ... vs R

Izzy, Drew, Kent, Bradley, Saenz, Repko, Phillips, Edwards, pitcher ... vs L

2005-05-19 13:00:34
30.   Paul in AZ
Up is down and down is up...

Can the Apocalypse be far behind?

2005-05-19 13:35:33
31.   Eric Enders
Question for the day: Has there ever been a Gold Glove shortstop who batted .340 and didn't win the MVP award? (This is not to say that I think Cesar will finish at .340, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts.)
2005-05-19 13:36:08
32.   Xeifrank
Colorado leading the Giants 1-0 in the bottom of the 5th. Win shares from that game so far:

J.Francis 0.245
D.Cruz 0.101
R.Durham 0.083
M.Alou 0.075
L.Gonzalez 0.069
C.Sullivan 0.051
D.Relaford 0.044
B.Hawpe 0.033
B.Tomko 0.014
L.Niekro 0.012
JD.Closser -0.036
T.Helton -0.043
E.Alfonzo -0.066
Y.Torrealba -0.079
G.Atkins -0.087
J.Ellison -0.100
D.Mohr -0.103
P.Feliz -0.214

2005-05-19 13:52:52
33.   Jon Weisman
Dodger Thoughts: Can the Apocalypse be far behind?
2005-05-19 13:55:52
34.   Landonkk
Hey Xeifrank -

just eondering where you get your win expectancey and in game win share numbers from? Intersting stuff..

2005-05-19 13:56:08
35.   heato
Tracy is leaving Weaver in games longer than he should so that Jeff can learn how to pitch out of tough situations (according to the Daily News). If I remember correctly, that's what he did with Gagne during a game against the Giants before Gagne was GAME OVER. It would be great if it works again (and Weaver transforms into a dominant pitcher), but how many big innings is it going to take before Tracy decides that he needs to pull Weaver?
2005-05-19 13:57:21
36.   Landonkk
ok.. lets try that again.
wondering.... expectancy.... Interesting

caffine, I tell ya...

2005-05-19 14:13:41
37.   Xeifrank
34.

I wrote a program (VB) that reads the expectancy data from the expectancy calculator then I input the play by play data using my program and it calculates each players win share for that game. There is still a little bit of fine tuning left and some subjectiveness when it comes to who you assign a negative value to on a play besides the pitcher.

Program works this way:

Before and after each discrete event (hit, so, bb etc...) each team has a certain percent chance of winning. If the Dodgers win expectancy is 55% when Choi comes to the plate with a runner on 2nd with 2 outs and tie game in the bottom of the 4th inning and he gets a single to drive in the run and the win expectancy goes up to 65%, then Choi is credited with a 0.1 win share and the pitcher -0.1 This is done until the game is over. All win shares added up should equal 0 and no win share can be greater than 1.0 or less than -1.0

This is just my program and the way I calculate it. There may be different or better ways. But it's fun to keep track of nonetheless.

vr

Xei

2005-05-19 14:18:46
38.   Icaros
#29 - Your lineups aren't bad, but why does Choi only get to face righthanders while career-minor-leaguer Mike Edwards faces both right and lefthanders? I don't think I'm ready to see that guy play everyday yet, and did you forget about Antonio Perez?

Normally with a Boras client in his walk year, you expect him to post big numbers. If Weaver doesn't turn it around, he'll be pissing away a big payday.

That's what we thought about Derek Lowe and his 5.42 ERA in 2004.

2005-05-19 14:55:34
39.   Bob Timmermann
Giants lose 3-1. The last two games at Coors were 3-2 and 3-1.
Weird.
2005-05-19 15:04:20
40.   Fearing Blue
#37: Hi Xei,

Your process is similar to one described in the book "Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game" by Jim Albert and Jay Bennet. It's known as Player Game Percentage (PGP). If you look it up on Google, there are some interesting references. One is a web page where they use the process to calculate MVP contributions in the World Series. The only difference I can see is that PGP calculates expected win percentage based on probabilistic run distributions, whereas you use historicals, right? Also, the book has some thoughts on how to attribute value to the defense. Nice work.

2005-05-19 15:17:19
41.   Fearing Blue
#39: I was watching the game on TV here in Colorado. Francis pitched very well, though he still looks like he's in high school.
2005-05-19 15:33:18
42.   Fearing Blue
#31: In 1999, Vizquel batted .333 and won the Gold Glove, while Nomar batted .357, but the MVP went to Pudge. So, not quite a .340 with a Gold Glove, but close.
2005-05-19 15:44:17
43.   Bob Timmermann
Jeff Francis looks younger because he's Canadian. It's a pact they made with Satan.
2005-05-19 16:20:33
44.   JT Dutch
#29 - Your lineups aren't bad, but why does Choi only get to face righthanders while career-minor-leaguer Mike Edwards faces both right and lefthanders? I don't think I'm ready to see that guy play everyday yet, and did you forget about Antonio Perez?

#38

... Choi and Saenz platoon in my lineup as long as Saenz is murdering the ball. A guy with an OPS of over eleven hundred against LHP just HAS to be placed in the lineup somewhere -- and I'd rather Olmedo play first than third.

I didn't forget about Antonio Perez; actually, you could substitute "third baseman" in place of "Edwards" in that 8th spot. Edwards is doing OK at bat and is adequate in the field, so I would presume he'll see the majority of work at third until he starts to hurt the team (because, ideally, you can't really "platoon" two guys that hit from the same side of the plate).

I like Perez, and I'm pretty confident he'll get his shot before the season is over. But he's not going to get that shot at 2B as long as Kent owns the position.

2005-05-19 17:08:23
45.   Fearing Blue
#31: No.

Though the reason is not what I was expecting. No Gold Glove shortstop has ever batted .340. The six highest AVG's for a Gold Glove shortstop were:

1) .333 for Vizquel in 1999 (AL)
2) .331 for Yount in 1982 (AL)
3) .330 for Renteria in 2003 (NL)
4) .323 for Ripken in 1991 (AL)
5) .319 for Larkin in 1995 (NL)
6) .319 for Trammel in 1983 (AL)

Of the six, three (Yount, Ripken, and Larkin) also won the MVP award. All of the MVP award winners hit at least 15 HRs (29 for Yount, 34 for Ripken, 15 for Larkin), which bodes poorly for Little Cesar.

The other SSs to win the Gold Glove and the MVP in the same year are:

Wills who hit .299 with 6HR in 1962 (NL)
Versalles who hit .273 with 19HR in 1965 (AL)
Rodriguez who hit .298 with 47HR in 2003 (AL)

Wills may be the best comparison for Izzy, but I don't expect Cesar to steal 104 as Wills did in 1962. If he does, his current pace would have him get caught stealing 208 times :). At that point we'd need to find Steve a pretty white jacket.

Thanks to BaseballReference.com for the assist.

2005-05-19 17:09:15
46.   GoBears
Normally with a Boras client in his walk year, you expect him to post big numbers. If Weaver doesn't turn it around, he'll be pissing away a big payday.

Well, players can't just will themselves to a great season. They can work a little harder, prepare a little more, party a little less. But whether or not they have a big year is largely out of their control. We remember the big "walk years" but I bet there've been just as many busts or at least "no different than usual" FA years.

2005-05-19 17:16:16
47.   Icaros
I like Perez, and I'm pretty confident he'll get his shot before the season is over. But he's not going to get that shot at 2B as long as Kent owns the position.

I wasn't meaning second base. I think he'll be seeing a lot more action at third than Edwards will, was my earlier point.

2005-05-19 17:18:57
48.   Steve
John Astin in Night Court:

"I'm feeling MUCH better now..."

2005-05-19 17:24:57
49.   Bob Timmermann
The never say die DBacks scored 3 in the first off of Clemens helped by two Houston errors, one by Clemens.
2005-05-20 07:59:58
50.   Jeromy
Another interesting stat to throw into the mix: When the Dodgers score at least 4 runs: 20-2, When the Dodgers score 3 or less: 2-16. I would say that divide is pretty dramatic.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-05-20 09:50:47
51.   bigcpa
Also the Dodgers are one of 3 teams that haven't been shut out. But they've scored exactly 2 runs 9 times- 3rd most in the majors. That's 23% of the time good for a 1-8 record. Last year's team scored 2 runs only 9% of the time. Maybe they're scratching 1 or 2 runs across to spoil would-be shutouts.

And last year we went 10-9 when scoring exactly 3 runs. This year 1-5. It's the pitching stupid!

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