Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
* * *
Suspense: Today's Dodger press notes do not have the name of the player that Odalis Perez is replacing on the active roster. The announcement won't come until shortly before game time, apparently.
[Update: Cesar Izturis goes on the disabled list, retroactive to June 30, I believe. This would seem to take him out of the All-Star Game. ... J.D. Drew is not going to have surgery, but is due back in September at the earliest. Four of eight Dodger position starters now occupy injured reserve: Drew, Izturis, Milton Bradley and about half a point each for Jose Valentin and Ricky Ledee.]
However, there is news that second-round 2005 draft pick Josh Wall has signed a contract with the team, passing up a scholarship to Louisiana State. Wall was the Louisiana high school player of the year in 2005.
Also from the press notes: The Dodger active roster has 42 career home runs against Colorado. Jeff Kent has 30 of them. Hee Seop Choi (37 at-bats) and Olmedo Saenz (47 at-bats) have four apiece.
* * *
The message to Choi back in April was to be aggressive, be be aggressive. But it wasn't a message everyone was supposed to hear (perhaps even Choi), and it was a fine thing Monday that it skipped past Oscar Robles.
From Tony Jackson in the Daily News:
In the four games (Cesar) Izturis has missed with his balky right hamstring, Robles has gone 10 for 19 with two doubles and four RBI. And he has done it in a remarkably professional manner, one reminiscent of the first two weeks of the season when the Dodgers bought wholly into hitting coach Tim Wallach's philosophy of methodically massaging the count with every at-bat.
As the club gradually sank further into the abyss after winning 12 of its first 14 games back in April, it also gradually sank further away from Wallach's tried-and-true formula. But since necessity thrust him into the everyday lineup, Robles has singlehandedly brought it back.
The lithe infielder saw a total of 34 pitches in his six at-bats, including nine in his first one alone, when he began the game by singling on a full count off Rockies starter Byung-Hyun Kim.
* * *
Giovanni Carrara picked up his sixth victory of the season Monday, moving within a game of Jeff Weaver in his bid to lead the team in wins this season.
That's right. Giovanni Carrara.
Carrara has allowed no runs in his past four innings and two runs in his past 10 1/3 innings (1.74 ERA).
* * *
As highlighted in the comments - a Washington Post feature on Vin Scully today.
* * *
Happy birthday, Rich Lederer ...
July 5, 1955. My birth announcement in the Long Beach newspaper the following day read as follows:
THIRD CHILD TO LEDERERS
It may be another 20 years or so before it becomes a reality, but the Baltimore Orioles apparently have another future bonus baby in the George Lederer household.
George, night sports deskman on the Independent, announced very sleepily Tuesday that his wife, Pat, gave birth to their third child, Richard Allan, in the wee hours of the morning at St. Mary's Hospital.
Mrs. Lederer and the seven pound, eight-ounce "Little Leaguer" are doing fine as are Richard's brother, Tommy and sister, Janet. George is still fighting the cobwebs. ...
* * *
Update: I missed this earlier, but Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register asked Paul DePodesta the question we've all been pondering ... how do J.D. Drew's injury and the current standings influence the Dodgers' trade posture?
DePodesta hasn't officially closed the door on competing this season - but if you read between the lines of his quotes on Plunkett's article, you can see him fingering his Get Out of 2005 Free Card and leaving himself an out ...
"I think the emotional part of you that is frustrated by the injuries might react that way," DePodesta said of writing 2005 off as a lost cause due to the injuries. "But I can tell you that is not the way we're going to approach this. We will continue to evaluate any potential deal's cost in terms of talent but we're not prepared to give up on this season." ...
DePodesta said trade talks have become more serious but he still sees most teams as reluctant to deal "at least until after the All-Star break."
"We'd love to (add an impact player)," he said. "I'm not sure if that guy is available."
July 5, 1987
Two teams going nowhere faced off at Three Rivers Stadium on a Sunday afternoon, and it was the Dodgers who were the better team, besting the Pirates 6-1 behind five strong innings from Orel Hershiser and then using some good fielding to preserve the lead. The Dodgers were now 37-43 and in fifth place, 8 ½ games behind Cincinnati.
Hershiser held the Pirates to just one hit over five innings, before departing with a sore back. By that time, the Dodgers were already up 6-0 against Pittsburgh starter Brian Fisher.
The Dodgers scored in the top of the first. Dave Anderson led off with a single and went to second when Barry Bonds booted the ball in left. Danny Heep doubled in Anderson. The Dodgers scored again in the second when Mickey Hatcher singled and Mike Scioscia doubled him home.
Franklin Stubbs tripled to lead off the fourth and scored on a sacrifice fly by Scioscia. And in the fifth, Anderson reached second on an error by second baseman Johnny Ray and then scored on Heep's second double of the day. In the sixth, Stubbs singled, scored on a triple by Hatcher, who in turn scored on a Steve Sax sacrifice fly.
In the bottom of the sixth, Alejandro Pena relieved (Hershiser was suffering back spasms) and walked Mike LaValliere and Rafael Belliard to start off the inning. After a strikeout, Pena walked Bonds to load the bases and then Andy Van Slyke to force in a run. Out came Pena and in came lefty reliever Matt Young.
Johnny Ray hit a sharp grounder through the middle, which Anderson dove for and gloved and was able to shovel it to Sax who turned it into an inning-ending double play. Young finished up the game for his seventh save.
The 1987 Dodgers had lots of changes and numerous injuries. The Dodgers waived Jerry Ruess and Bill Madlock early in the season. Tom Niedenfuer was traded to Baltimore. The team also had trouble filling the shortstop position as both Mariano Duncan and Anderson went down with injuries. The Dodgers had to acquire Glenn Hoffman on August 21 to fill the position. Phil Garner even had to fill in at the position once.
Garner earned some respect from his teammates in 1987 for the unusual reason of getting into a fight with injury-plagued outfielder Mike Marshall. Although he didn't say so on the record, it was believed that Garner felt that Marshall was a malingerer. Nevertheless, Garner was granted free agency and Marshall would return in 1988.
Pedro Guerrero was the only steady player on offense. He batted .338 with a .416 OBP and slugged 27 homers. The Dodgers tried a rookie named Mike Ramsey in center field, who would have an obscure, yet memorable career. John Shelby eventually took over the position.
Hershiser went 16-16 with a 3.06 ERA and led the NL with 264 2/3 innings pitched. Local hero Fernando Valenzuela showed signs of wearing down. He led the league in hits allowed and walks and went 14-14 with a 3.98 ERA.
But overall it was a dismal year. The Dodgers finished 73-89 and 17 games behind division-winning San Francisco in fourth place. There would be help in the off-season, but most of it came from an arbitrator who ruled that baseball's owners had colluded earlier to keep some free agents from signing. Some players were made free agents again, including Detroit outfielder Kirk Gibson.
The Dodgers new general manager, Fred Claire, who had replaced longtime GM Al Campanis after a disastrous interview on "Nightline" in April where he set a record for most inappropriate comments made in a 10-minute period, would be investigating the "second look" free agents.
Thanks to the Los Angeles Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet
Johnny Ray batted third and "old friend" Sid Bream was the cleanup hitter.
He will have to wait until July 16.
I think the "This is L.A. Baseball" TV spots are somewhat stupid and more than a little creepy, but the one thing that I love about them is the fact that Vin Scully's voice can be heard through the whole thing. When he's telling me that this is L.A. baseball, I don't mind so much.
Vin Scully is L.A. baseball.
But, we keep losing and the turnstiles keep turning. We are the Cubs.
I guess Jason Choi will be on the bench for the rest of the series since were facing Francis/Kennedy.
First, based on the top 2004 - 2005 offseason signings, teams have paid on average $1.87 million / offensive WARP.
Prior to the season, Adam Dunn was projected by Baseball Prospectus at 6.5 WARP for 2005, 6.5 WARP for 2006, and 5.9 WARP for 2007. So far this season, Dunn has accumulated a 4.0 WARP in half a season, thus he's on pace to beat the 6.5 WARP estimate by 21.5%. Increasing the 2006 and 2007 WARP estimates correspondingly by 21.5% leads to 7.9 WARP and 7.2 WARP projections respectively. These are likely optimistic seeing as I've implicitly weighted his 2005 half season performance much higher than his previous seasons, which were accounted for in the original estimates.
My conservative assumptions are that Dunn will make $10 million in 2006 and $11 million in 2007 based on arbitration. Thus, beyond 2005, we'd be paying $22 million for 15.1 WARP, which is $1.46 million / WARP. Thus, Dunn saves the team $6.1 million for his 15.1 WARP ($0.41 million / WARP) vs. going rate on the free agent market.
Second, based on the top 2004 - 2005 offseason signings, teams have paid on average $2.16 million / pitching WARP.
Assuming that the reported Astros offer is accurate, the Dodgers would have to part with three top pitching prospects to obtain Dunn. For instance, Derek Thompson, Chad Billingsley, and Chuck Tiffany. Also, let's assume that just one of those pitchers would contribute significantly to the Dodgers pitching staff as a 4th / 5th starter. For the purpose of simplicity, we'll just take into account pre-arbitration years of 2006, 2007, and 2007. I think a fair projection for WARP contribution is 2.5 in 2006, 3.0 in 2007, and 3.5 in 2008 for approximately $0.35 million / year (pre-arbitration). That's 9.0 WARP for $1.05 million, which is $0.12 million / WARP. That saves the team $18.4 million for the 9.0 WARP ($2.04 million / WARP) vs. the going rate on the free agent market.
Looking just at 2006 and 2007, the Dodgers would pay $22 milion for 15.1 WARP for Dunn or $0.70 million for 5.5 WARP from their pitching prospects. If the Dodgers stick with the prospects, they'll have $21.3 million available in 2006 and 2007, which would obtain ~11.4 WARP on the free agent market. Thus, with the pitching prospects, the Dodgers would get about 16.9 WARP from their $22 million, whereas with Adam Dunn, the Dodgers would get about 15.1 WARP from their $22 million. Adam Dunn is obviously more of a sure thing, but the upside from the pitching prospects is much higher and the impact goes beyond 2006 and 2007.
If I felt like the Dodgers were one piece away from seriously competing this season, I would definitely go for Adam Dunn. Players are typically more expensive to trade for mid-season because there is a premium placed on that "one last piece". But, this isn't the position the Dodgers are in. Instead, I believe they should be looking primarily to 2006 and 2007. If this is the case, they would be better off either a) making a trade in the offseason when the premium on established players is not so high, or b) signing a free agent such as Brian Giles at the market rate.
I think Choi will be riding the pine the remainder of the season except for giving occasional rests to the others.
Of course it seems his greatest role now, as revealed last night, is "announced pinch hitter to make them change their reliever"
Adam Dunn fun fact:
.246/.390/.560 - 87 k's
.950 OPS - 15th in MLB
Turn 10 k's into singles:
.284/.420/.597
1.017 OPS - 4th in MLB
10 k's in 333 PA's and you've got Albert Pujols. 10 k's to turn all the batting average witches into fairies.
So signability aside, I hereby request that all Dunn-naysayers also explain why they would prefer X prospect over Albert Pujols.
vr,
bigcpa
yes, but what makes Dunn so good...
This peeing match (I don't know where the profanity line is here) has gone on long enough. If Choi doesn't get a chance to play, and DePo won't fire the manager that won't give him a chance to play, why not trade him now? I like Choi as much as anybody, but how much deadweight do we need on this roster? Also one would figure he'd have pretty good value, for all the reasons that we like him (homers, walks, contract status).
Again, not advocating a trade, just saying that something's gotta give here.
.282/.361/.510 (.871 OPS)
I doubt he'd be sitting on the bench.
Unfortunately, Adam Dunn isn't Albert Pujols and Hee Seop Choi isn't Mark Texeira.
Vin, can I get one for 2005?
That does NOT mean we trade our ALL-FUTURE franchise-making SHORTSTOP for him.
Tiffany, Braz, and Werth. Throw in Izturis. Pisses off Plaschke, gets us Adam Dunn. It's all good.
I'm not sure how many years prospects have of minimums + arbitration years (little help?), but as far as I understand it, if we had Dunn, we'd have him at our disposal for next year and that's it. Is a year and a half of Dunn wise when your best years are ahead of you?
The players used to aquire Dunn in 2005 might be more wisely spent or USED in game in 2006 or 2007, depending on the prospects.
It's not a matter of player for player, so what's the point of explaining "why they would prefer X prospect over Albert Pujols."
It also might mean that DePodesta is finding that the Reds are asking for too much for Adam Dunn.
The Dodgers are second in the NL in HBPs now with 40, 1 behind Washington. Toronto has 44.
The LA Dodgers record is 72, set in 2003. The Dodgers are on pace for 79. The Brooklyn team record is 125 set in 1899.
However breaking the 2003 record could be iffy since two of the most "hittable" batters are JD Drew and Hee-Seop Choi. They both have five, the same number as Scrappy Repko.
I don't know if this is luck or design, but Jayson Werth has no HBPs in the regular season.
Sorry, I watched The Godfather last night for the first time since I was about six-years-old.
Made a lot more sense this time around.
Except my week has gone Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Tuesday.
The first place Nationals are batting Carlos Baerga cleanup.
Doesn't hurt so much.
Who knows...
That said, I draw the line at Guzman. When he's 42, has broken Rose's hits record, won 17 Gold Gloves at shortstop, and is closing in on A-Rod's record of 822 home runs, I'm not going to be the guy who advocated trading him for Adam Dunn.
That's why I like trades where Braz is involved. When your upside is Guillermo Mota, that's limited.
This stuff must go on everyday. The Tim Hudson trade & sign being the prime suspect.
travis denker leads the sally league in walks. impressive for a 19 yr old.
We'll see how long Robles keeps it up.
279/404/471
blake dewitt, a 28th overall pick in the 2004 draft at 19 yrs old as a 3b
265/313/417
.280/.340/.335 (.675 OPS)
Assuming Izturis' true OPS is in the range of .675 - .715, the main difference would be defense. Izturis is an above average shortstop, whereas Robles is right around average or slightly below (his Rate2 is 100 in 9 games). Overall, the difference between the two of them probably amounts to about 1 - 1.5 WARP over the course of a season.
Tiffany, Brazoban, and Orenduff would probabaly be the equivalent of the Astros offer.
Maybe Aubrey Huff makes more sense financially and prospect-wise.
And I still don't see why some people think 2007/8 is the "target" year for a run at the world series instead of next season. I know some of those prospects should be up by then, but some of our current pitchers might not look as solid three years from now. Drew might not be around. Kent will likely not be around. Bradley may or may not still be here. Who's to say that future team will have a better shot than next year's? At least we KNOW we have a solid nucleus for next season.
I remember when we had Russell and Lopes converted to infielders. I would think that it might be easier to convert to outfielder.
Should we convert Guzman to OF?
Cesar Izturis, who is on the DL.
Drew's wrist will not need surgery and he should return in two months.
Which means he's gone until May 2006 I assume.
By my count that would be 27.
I've got no problem trading some pitching for hitting as prospect pitching is a crap shoot. A choice between Broxton/Billingsly, add in D Thompson, and Navarro or Martin might do the trick.
delwyn was 21 in the sally. denkers 19.
at this moment, the radio announcer for the catfish is reading my email. woohooo :)
How many emails does this guy get?
i dunno, he said whoever was listening online to email in.
so i did, i asked a question about dewitts streakiness and how denkers plate discipline is only second in the system to russ martin.
Add Choi to your short list of Unbreakables. Course he's destined for a Russ Ortiz-type phantom DL stint.
is it just me, or does 'Denkers' sound like an obnoxious name for a housecat?
Let's hope that if Travis makes it to the Majors, they don't call him 'Denkers' or 'Denky' a la Belly, Greenie, and Dukie.
Erickson is going to last the year.
The last time Alvarez was allegedly going to be "back," it didn't quite work out that way.
And finally, I would change the news about J.D. Drew to "He's not going to need surgery...now."
Frankly, if Erickson is DFAd too soon, what would we have left to root for? Other than, say, Drew comes back in September, OPSes 1800 for the month, and leads us to the division crown, at, say, 80-82.
On the other hand, if you haven't gotten a cup of coffee with the Dodgers this year, what's wrong with you?
Cup of coffee
Mmmm....
Jet laggy goodness....
LAN
Robles
Repko (!!!)
Kent
Saenz (1B)
Werth
Phillips
Edwards (3B)
Chen (LF)
O Perez
COL
Garabito (!)
Gonzalez
Helton
Wilson
Atkins
Mohr
Hawpe
Closser
Francis
Dodgers:
Robles (SS)
Repko (CF)
Kent (2B)
Saenz (1B)
Werth (RF)
Phillips (C)
Edwards (3B)
Chen (LF)
Perez (P)
Rockies:
Garabito (2B)
Gonzalez (SS)
Helton (1B)
Wilson (CF)
Atkins (3B)
Mohr (LF)
Hawpe (RF)
Closser (C)
Francis (P)
Molokai, you suggested that the Reds need a 2B. How about Perez? His value is probably peaking right about now.
results?
2 bbs, and a 2 run homerun.
No one has a higher average than Chin-Feng Chen this year.
On a larger scale, it's sort of the same thing with the minor leagues. I want to some writing about the system, but there are updates coming like every 15 minutes about every level.
"If we get Adam Dunn, we can pull this out."
Some are in the fifth stage: acceptance.
"Well, let's wait for the prospects."
I don't think anyone is in denial or anger now.
Lefty starter.
SS - Izturis
2B - A. Perez
CF - Bradley
RF - Drew
3B - Valentin
LF - Ledee
1B - Werth
C - Bako
Seriously, I really wonder how much this is mucking with Choi's head. I'm beyond thinking about the team here; I just don't see this as a way to treat a player who supposedly has so much promise. He's in, what, his third ML year now? Play him for three months and see what he can do when he doesn't worry about sitting down after one bad AB.
"Yeah, Dave, it appears to be the lineups for tonight's Dodger/Rockies game out in Denver."
"I think I can speak for Paul when I say that those aren't anything."
"Right, Dave."
"Thanks for playing Is This Anything! We'll be right back with Drew Barrymore!"
(musical coda)
He plays in center field for Bobby Valentine. Matt Franco plays left field.
Fortunately, the outfields aren't all that big in Japan.
You're grading on a curve of course. :)
It's time to stop wondering why Tracy is doing what he's doing with Choi. The simplest explanation is the clearest. He considers him a second-stringer.
Whatever belief anyone has that Choi should be playing regularly, Tracy does not share it.
Dodgers offense
.260/.332/.410
NL Avg
.263/.332/.418
OPS:
NL .750
SD .743
LA .742
SF .742
I guess all 3 of these teams have reason to scream BUT WHAT IF!!
The more Repko is put in that #2 spot, or played at all, is beyond sense.
My question: Would Beane force Tracy to play Choi? It seems that the Dodgers are not being managed from the top down.
Namely, that I'm turning 40.
As far as the minor league updates, I think we are all paying more attention since they are more exciting than the majors.
Jayson Werth 29.2%
Jason Repko 26.2%
[Adam Dunn 26.1%]
Jason Grabowski 24.5%
Ricky Ledee 23.8%
Antonio Perez 21.3%
Hee-Seop Choi 20.7%
Olmedo Saenz 16.7%
J.D. Drew 16.1%
M. Bradley 14.6%
Jeff Kent 13.0%
J. Phillips 10.8%
Cesar Izturis 10.3%
Mike Edwards 8.3%
Garabito got them because, well, I thought he had a funny name that I didn't recognize.
Garabito!
Honestly, I checked Gameday and saw the lineups were out, so I checked to see if they had been posted. They hadn't, so I did. I've never posted lineups before and I probably never will again. A perceived "Race to Post Lineups" is an amusing, though. I can see where it comes from.
In retrospect, Kent should have bunted, right?
because our system is just that deep :)
George Frazier is talking about how good it will be for Todd Helton to miss the All-Star Game. George Frazier would know.
x 5.
Hate is a strong word I save only for anyone in a Giants uniform and, fairly recently, Jim Tracy.
I'd have no problem with Repko as the 25th man on the roster and/or guy who warms up the left fielder in between innings.
Just for you Icaros
Now we've got a race to report the Vin Scully Comment 500 in addition to the Lineup Grand Prix.
so for the day, hes 3-3 2hrs and 2bbs
Dennys Reyes is still pitching.
Lots of "Old Friends" playing for the Padres tonight: Reyes, Falkenborg, Roberts, and Young.
Rudy Seanez is also available to relieve.
I hope not.
Yeah, that Brian Fuentes.
I may get started earlier than planned.
The Rockies' "announcers" (MLBEI robs me of Vin tonight) just listed Reds, Twins, White Sox & "two other ballclubs" as having scouts at tonight's game for trade research.
Does Junior sing? He has a great voice.
Here's the breakdown of what happens in Choi's plate appearances:
K: 20.7%
BB: 9.1%
HR: 5.6%
BIP: 64.6%
Here's the breakdown of his balls-in-play (based on Hardball Times):
LD: 28.4%
FB: 36.1%
GB: 35.5%
Choi's BABIP is currently at .241, but his LD% is second-highest on the team amongst players with over 100 ABs. Ledee is first at 29.0% and Phillips is third at 23.8%.
David Studeman of The Hardball Times an used a linear regression model to compute BABIP based on Line Drive %, Fly Ball %, and K-Rate (K/AB). The formula is BABIP = .245 + .52 x LD% - .16 x FB% + .11 x K-Rate. See http://tinyurl.com/br6go for more details.
For Choi, those figures are LD% = 28.4%, FB% = 36.1%, and K-rate = 23.8%. Based on Studeman's formula, Choi's BABIP should be .361. That BABIP would raise his overall batting average to .318. Among players with more than 100 PAs, Choi's .120 difference between his actual BABIP and calculated BABIP is the largest on the team. With a .139 difference, Grabowski has also been extremely unlucky, but in a much smaller sample size (only 88 plate appearances). The two luckiest members of the team have been Jayson Werth (.348 actual vs. .294 calculated) and Antonio Perez (.398 actual vs. .348 calculated). I'll post the numbers for the whole team once I figure out a good format.
The conclusion is that other than Choi's balls in play, especially line drives, not falling in at an expected rate, it's not clear that there's anything wrong.
It's rare, though, for sure.
BB: 9.1%
HR: 5.6%
BIP: 64.6%
that K rate is perfectly fine for a power hitter. in fact, i am suprised it wasnt more.
He does not sing in the Godfather II and I don't think he says much. But he gets a cool-looking orange seat.
another:
Empire Strikes Back
I won't say any more. Just wanted to whet Icaros' appitite.
The Dodgers have 11 LOB? What a clutch team. What is the opposite of situational hitting? I guess its just general suckiness.
To explain the discrepancy, I'm going to go with my gut feeling which is that Choi hits his line drives so hard they make it all the way to the outfielders. Thus, he's getting more than the expected share of outs on line drives.
I do think the Jim Tracy factor affects him somewhat, but mostly I was trying to explain the .233 batting average in the games he has played.
Anyone have recommendations? I'm especially fond of good food (not super-expensive, though) and attractive women.
205 - I agree.
206 - Consider me whet.
Plate Appearances:
K%: 26.1%
BB%: 17.4%
HR%: 6.3%
BIP%: 50.2%
Balls in Play:
LD%: 18.10%
FB%: 39.8%
GB%: 42.1%
Actual BABIP: .281
Calculated BABIP: .311
Difference: .030
Adam Dunn does not hit as many line drives as Choi, but he takes more walks and hits homeruns a slightly higher percentage of the time. How much slack will Tracy give Dunn when he hits .235 - .240 in Dodger Stadium?
*Spiderman 2
*Star Trek 2: Wrath of Khan
*A Shot in the Dark
*The Road Warrior
*Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Well, it's even more depressing in all due honesty to see that Choi may also be suffering from some bad luck. The kid really deserves a break--I used to be such a big Tracy fan and defender--now, the only thing that keeps me from truly hating Tracy with a passion is that it's really quite unreasonable to despise someone over baseball of all things. The defective bullpen management I can forgive for various reasons I won't go into here, and if Milton Bradley becomes both the player and the man we hope he will become, I think Tracy will deserve a lot of credit for it, but Tracy's misuse of Choi is just, just, so outrageous.
I'm also somewhat upset at DePo in all due honesty. He's the GM--it's his job to deal with problems like this. He's a good diplomat--can't he gently prod Tracy into playing Choi more? And if that doesn't work, he's the guy who got a five-year contract from McCourt, not Tracy. DePo is already despised by Simers and Plaschke--so he fires Tracy, he'll be despised some more by the same folks. So what?
And it was also DePo's job to prevent the fiasco of allowing Gagne to pitch on a bad knee with fouled up mechanics. The whole coaching staff shares the blame, but DePo is supposed to be their boss. Forgot all the nonsense about chemistry, blah, blah, blah, that's a place to criticize DePo ON.
I dunno--I used to think 2003 was more frustrating, because we squandered such tremendous pitching. But seeing Choi ride the pine and Tracy tell A. Perez to bunt is just making me uncharacteristically angry--that, and the fact that thIS whole day has been a pain. And the DirecTV feed keeps on dying on me--I probably need to call those chaps tomorrow. And now we're down 4-0 and we still can't score runs in frigg'n Colorado.
And Jason Repko is still batting no. 2. Repko! I'm starting to acquire this irrational dislike for the poor kid, even though he's done nothing to me. He symbolizes all the worst parts of how Tracy plays favorites, and I just can't stand it!
ARGHHHHHH!!!!
WWSH
WWSH
Stupid Extra Innings isn't working for me tonight. Good thing it's after hours--I'm so upset I might lose my temper with DirecTV customer support.
The season wasn't over yet--with Kent, we might have still had a chance with some breaks, and even with the sort of conservative trade deal I would prefer. But we really are done if Kent's out for any period of time.
WWSH
The Road Warriors are also my favorite wrestling tag team ever.
What's A Shot in the Dark?
219 - Thanks again, LAT.
Actually, I think DePo's just being gutless on this issue. He feels the need to defer to his on-field manager, and this is the result. The BoSox had similar issues when Grady Little managed with Theo running a sabermetric front office.
There's something to be said for trying to integrate old and new school stuff in the organization. The best example is Logan White's drafting of prep school kids. But a heavier hand is better sometimes, and this is the place for it.
Perhaps DePo feels so burned by the hostile media reaction he's too skittish about taking on Tracy full-bore. Maybe the issue is McCourt feels too much pressure, which is relayed to DePo. Maybe the scenario mentioned around here of an elaborate game of chicken really is going on, with DePo counting on his ability to outlast Tracy. I don't know what it is, but it looks badly mishandled to me.
DePo has such a harsh image in the media as the soulless computer boy breaking hearts right and left. He's actually struck me as a pretty nice guy, although he does have a ruthless streak. Maybe this is a spot where his easygoing demeanor, as opposed to Beane's brashness, is a real disadvantage?
WWSH
I may as well just get it all in at once:
- trade for Dunn if reasonable, but like Steve, I think I'd hang on to Guzman if possible. I'd be opening to trading LaRoche though
- no Choi = stupid
- Robles leading off = stupid
- Repko 2nd = stupid
- 8 hits and no runs??? we must not be clutch enough, better go get Sean Casey or someone
That'll get me by for a while, I think.
It's almost certainly an injury--even Tracy wouldn't think this is some sort of weird form of in-game strategy. The question is how serious the injury is.
I'd like to see Fearing update the numbers on lost WARP to injury with Kent out. Ridiculous....
WWSH
Alan Arkin played Inspector Clouseau in a movie in 1968. The movie was called...Inspector Clouseau.
I used to be such a happy and optimistic Dodger fan, who thought that those who got overly upset over baseball needed to relax.
Thank heavens I'm home alone--I'm such foul company right now.
WWSH
Ridiculous.
WWSH
"Jeff Kent left tonight's game in the sixth inning with an undisclosed injury.
We assume it's an injury. Kent was having a lousy night, going 0-for-3 with an error, but it's still very unlikely manager Jim Tracy would have removed him in a double-switch unless something was wrong"
This is fun...
Maybe he underestimated the media hostility he would encounter? It's possible he's more skittish about it now than before. Or the issue might really be McCourt, who might not have DePo's brass tacks. Or maybe DePo feels he needs to wait until the end of the season before he puts the knife in--that might fit his style more. Or maybe he genuninely likes other aspects of Tracy's managerial style. Who knows? I just don't see any excuse for Tracy trotting out Jason Phillips to play 1B instead of Choi. Or Grabowski--remember that idiotic move!?
WWSH
On top of that, the wife and kid want to watch Gilmore Girls. In the new place, the computer and the television are next to each other pardon my bold letters.
I'm out. See ya later in the evening...
Also, it was OP's first start. Not horrible. And if we had a offense with some punch, we might have scored enough runs to win anyways. Instead, we lose Kent to an injury.
WWSH
The Dodgers don't have any walks.
Kent probably wants to take few days off instead playing with minor leaguers.
Thanks for the info. Makes me feel somewhat better. Sorta. As we saw with Izzy, though, those injuries linger, and Kent's no spring chicken.
WWSH
They are close to the record for most total bases without a run. That's 16 total bases. The Dodgers have 14.
Awwhh, hell, they should just have him get surgery and be done with it. At this point, they're risking him trying to come back in desperation and more seriously injuring the finger.
WWSH
I actually agree with you on that point LAT. I hold DePo responsible in the final analysis for Choi not playing, because he's the GM and is higher on the organizational chart. I just don't think think that there's some secret injury of Choi the team is hiding, or that DePo has actually lost faith in Choi's actual abilities--I just think he's deferring to his field manager for reasons of his own, and I don't see any reasonable rationale for it, as we try to get by with a punchless offense.
I still like DePo as a GM--I think he's made more good moves than bad, which is all one can really expect, but I think his willingness to allow Tracy to misuse Choi is one of the bad moves.
WWSH
Among the 14 hits, he allowed were a double and a triple and he walked two. Cleveland stranded 14 runners.
The game stories said that Gaston "was effective with runners on base" and "benefitted from good fielding".
Old Milt Gaston apparently was a lucky guy. He lived to be 100 years old.
I think Saenz just has a stiff back. I had no real DirecTV feed so I was relying on a post at Choicentral. Tracy will still probably trot him out there, and perhaps even cause a more serious injury, just to avoid playing Choi.
WWSH
Steve's ancestors screamed about that.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
There is a case for Saenz to be the first-string first baseman. I wouldn't make that case, but it's there. A lot of people who read this site would subscribe to it, I'm guessing.
Could DePodesta order Tracy from on high to play Choi? I suppose.
But it's not like DePodesta is watching Tracy play Joe Shlabotnik at first over Choi. We know that DePodesta is not an inconoclast, that he works with people like Logan White. In a world where you pick your battles, it's understandable that DePodesta is willing to let this one go.
After the season, of course, perhaps that will factor into the future of Tracy and Choi as Dodgers.
It is something of a fluke that the Dodgers are deep at first base and thin in the outfield (at least until Saenz gets hurt). Personally, I would move an infielder to the outfield to adjust that.
But as much as I may disagree with Tracy about how much Choi should play, it's not like it's insane or evil to give Saenz at-bats. And it doesn't point to a failing on DePodesta's part that he doesn't order Tracy to do differently.
vr, Xei
The Rakuten Eagles have three mascots. A male and female eagle called Clutch and Clutchina and a crow that rides a motorcycle and is named Mr. Carrasco.
I'm not making this up.
If Kent could walk he would knock him off the mound.
Meanwhile, if Jeff Kent is DLed (and he certainly going to sit for a few days, if not DLed), what do we do? Is there anyone left on the 40 man? I fear the answer is Jose Flores.
vr, Xei
then he goes off and says the farm consists of derek thompson and edwin jackson.
if thats the farm then adam dunn come to la please.
lawton would be cheap in terms of prospects and would give an illusion to casual dodger fans that they are buyers. so id do it.
vr, Xei
Thanks Jon for your usual level head. I'll think on that thought tonight. I do admit that I'm just so angry and frustrated right now that I may not actually have all my wits about me.
I'm not sure anyone can defend allowing Gagne to pitch on a bad knee, though, which you yourself worried about from the get-go, along with a lot of other Dodger fans I'm sure when we first saw him in that televised ST game.
Anyhow, it's late out here back east--good night!
WWSH
vr, Xei
There's a standard to match.
I'm weakening. I'm starting to embrace the idea of Preston Wilson. Somebody slap me.
But, the most important factor is that Lawton would only require mid-tier prospects, because he'd be a salary dump. Additionally, we'd get a compensation pick for him if we don't resign him.
Also, Lawton would be a legitimate leadoff or #2 hitter. Of course, that means Tracy would bat him 7th.
Jon I can understand the case for Saenz playing against LHP when were in a pennant race. I cannot make a case for a 35 year old journyman getting the most ab's in his career while the player we shipped our all-star catcher for sits on the pine. If Choi had been a complete failure then we could have some rationale but other then the low BA, I think Choi has done just fine. Fearing Blue brokedown the Choi numbers. I use a roto site called HQ that shows that based on his 1st half stats his XBA(Expected Batting Average) would be around 290 showing that he is hitting in tough luck. This XBA is very useufull as most players given time will climb or fall to the XBA.
Also, I asked this earlier, but you might not have been around. Do you think the Reds would be interested in Antonio Perez? He's another guy I would be willing to part with while his value is high.
Lawton is starting to look like not a bad play, as long as he is cheap to get. The Pirates have already paid most of that salary - it would end up being $3 million for us, without committing for the long term (this year's Roberto Kelly). He's not going to win us a pennant, but no one is. It would keep us sane, and save us from having to see two of the aforementioned every night flailing away scrappily.
If I were the Red's I'd only be looking for pitching and as much as possible.
XBA
Saenz - 296 right in line with his actual
A Perez - 247 a good 70 points below his actual. He is hitting in incredible good luck with a hit% of 42% when it should be more like 27%.
If we were still in the pennant race then Lawton would make a nice grab but since he's a FA at the end of the year, Depo would have to be playing for this year.
which in translation: sell high on antonio perez.
or give the illusion to play for this year knowing he didnt have to part with his crown jewels.
also, if lawton continues to play well, someone will offer him a multi yr deal this offseason, so we will get draft picks.
and i agree with molokai #325. i mean, saenz is injured and worn out anyway. why is choi marooned on the bench? and if saenz is healthy enough to play, why are choi's at-bats coming at the expense of putting edwards and repko in the starting lineup? put saenz at third.
so we will get a first rounder and first round supp for him.
which would be highaway robbery but it is what it is. but if we do offer arby, we risk him accepting it...
Hey, C Wilson is just about to come back from the DL, maybe he's an option.
A type players fetch the 1st-round draft pick of teams in the top half of W-L record or a 2nd-round draft pick of teams in the bottom half of W-L record and an additional pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. B types don't get the sandwich pick and C type players fetch a sandwich between the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The higher the player's ranking in the compensation formula, the higher priority the old team gets in acquiring draft picks. *
thats the definition i found on FAs. is it top 30% in the FA class or in the entire majors? i assume entire majors. either way hes probably up there.
Of course, we could always extend the deal to include Kip Wells, but then we'd have to kick in some really good stuff.
"Why don't you just kick my dog while you're at it?"
It's sad I've had to use that twice this season, and the first time was prior to Drew and Kent going down.
Making a rough guess as to the pre-season rank of our best hitters, here's our season:
1-Drew - probably done for the year
2-Kent - out, who knows how long
3-Bradley - missed tons of time so far, with no end in sight
4-Choi - healthy, we presume, but not playing
5-Werth - broken hand, still not playing 100%
6-Valentin - out for at least half a season total
7-Izturis - at least 15 days
8-Phillips/Bako - at least Phillips is healthy, right?
This about that, pretend for a second that Bako is our starting catcher, and you realize that all 8 postition players have been or currently are hurt. I've never seen anything like it.
Robles SS
Perez 2B
Saenz 1B
Werth RF
Grabowski LF
Phillips C
Edwards 3B
Repko CF
Penny P
I just replayed Choi's 6 HR weekend off the Tivo. Pardon my stating the obvious but we were 33-29, 2.5 back of SD and heading to KC. SD would get swept the next 3 days. If we went 11-10 since then we'd be 44-39 and .5 game out. That was 3 lousy weeks ago. Unreal.
1. If McCourt really means to cheap out, drafting Hochever was a weird way to do it.
2. If Lawton really can be gotten so cheaply as others on this board think he will be, he sounds like a steal.
3. Lawton and Dunn wouldn't seem to be mutually exclusive. Even if Drew and Bradley come back late in the year, Lawton and Werth could platoon, and Dunn could replace whatever devil-sent Saenz/Edwards/Grabowski firstbase platoon Tracy dreams up.
4. Choi is going to have a big season for somebody, and it doesn't look like it's going to be L.A. And it doesn't look like they're going to get much of anything for him when he goes.
5. Saenz looked bad tonight. He went 2-4, but Vin was absolutely right: he looked like his back was bothering him. Phillips could've beat him in a foot race.
Yeah, I just know Beane's gonna wind up with him.
to qualify for the batting title. As for pitchers - egad!
No really, who?! Antonio Perez? Saenz? That would crack me up.
If the Dodgers bring up some of the kids now they can get valuable experience and in the long run help the team as much this year than any lawton or Dunn move.
Unless Olmedo Saenz is called healthy ... do we even have any position player that isn't (temporarily) broken that's being paid more than 500K? ack.
without the pitching staff ... we really read like a AAA club... and we're scoring like one as well... in Coors of all places...
navarro, tiffany and jackson. take the deal obrien.
"I want that hillbilly!"
http://tinyurl.com/8cvoy
By the way, I'm not a drug addict; I'm just on vacation this week and Inland Empire summers are more tolerable after dark.
Maybe MLB will broker a 1-day trade of Jeter to the Dodgers, so that the face of baseball can be in the game, and the Dodgers can say they were represented. Yuck, maybe not.
Bokonon is Vonnegut something right? I almost know it, but not quite all the way. And wasn't there a Kilgore Trout here for a while?
Re POW (title of this post) -- Does anyone remember a kids TV show from the 70s called POW! A kid would call in from home, then they'd show a videogame type screen on the tv with some sort of falling targets, and then the kid would shout "pow pow pow" into the phone in the deluded belief that when s/he yelled "pow," a little video game gun would shoot at the targets.
I really believe I saw this show, but I've never met anybody in my life who also saw it (and my old friends deny it just to spite me for moving away from CA).
Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s beat Fresno 4 - 3.
In the first of a chain of a moves, Todd Donovan was brought up from Jacksonville to replace Chin-Feng Chen in the outfield. At 26-years old, Todd Donovan is not a prospect. In his first game with the 51s, Donovan was brought in as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the 9th inning. All of the damage in the game came by way of solo shots, two by Henri Stanley (27-years old), one by Joe Thurston (25-years old), and one by Tony Schrager (28-years old). Stanley was obtained from Boston in the Dave Roberts trade, but the fact that Repko, Ross, and Chen were all called up before him makes his prospect status clear. Thurston used to be a Dodgers top prospect, but his upside now is a utility infielder / pinch-runner. Thurston is effectively blocked by Willy Aybar, who is younger (22), stronger defensively at two positions (2B & 3B), a better hitter, and has starting potential. On the night, third baseman Aybar went 0 for 3 with a walk. Catcher Dioner Navarro went 2 for 3 with a walk, but was not involved in any of the scoring.
In his first rehab appearance, Wilson Alvarez pitched one scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit while striking out 2. Harold Eckert and Pat Mahomes finished off the night. Mahomes was credited with the win after pitching 3 perfect innings with 5 strikeouts.
Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns game against Mobile was suspended after 5 innings with the game tied 4 - 4.
In the second part of the chain, Justin Ruggiano was promoted from Vero Beach to replace Todd Donovan. At 23-years old, Ruggiano is one of the few outfield prospects in our system. Prior to being promoted, Ruggiano was crushing the ball in Vero Beach to the tune of .307/.394/.510. He's a little old to be getting his first taste of AA-ball, but if he continues to succeed, he'll likely pop up on the Dodgers radar. Ruggiano did not play in the game. It was a good game for the Dodgers position prospects, as 6 of the 7 hits came from catcher Russell Martin, second baseman Delwyn Young, third baseman Andy LaRoche, and first baseman James Loney. Martin went 1 for 2 with a walk and 2 runs scored. Young went 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs. LaRoche went 1 for 3 with a double. Loney went 2 for 2 with a double and a sacrifice fly. Joel Guzman was the only prospect held hitless on the night, going 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
Justin Orenduff continued his struggles in AA. He pitched 5 innings allowing 4 runs (all earned) on 5 hits (1 homerun and 1 double) and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts. The outing dropped his ERA to 9.45 in 13.1 innings pitched.
Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers lost 4 - 3 to St. Lucie.
In the third part of the chain, Jamie Hoffman was promoted from Columbus to Vero Beach. At 20-years old, Hoffman was having a decent season in Columbus (.308/.383/.414). He'll need to develop significantly more power to be a legitimate outfield prospect. Hoffman made it to Vero Beach in time to start the game, going 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts. It was a good night for Dodgers prospects in Vero Beach as well. Second baseman Tony Abreu went 3 for 5. Right-fielder Matt Kemp went 1 for 4 with a run scored and and an RBI. Cory Dunlap went 2 for 3 with a walk. Shorstop Chin-lung Hu went 1 for 5 with a run scored and an RBI. Hu has had a disappointing season overall, batting .269/.313/.395. Hu has strong defensive tools, but will need to develop offensively to have a shot. Designated-hitter Anthony Raglani had the best night, going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles, 2 walks, and 2 RBIs, raising his average to .293. Raglanie was the Dodgers 5th round draft pick in the 2004 draft out of George Washington University in DC. At 22 years old, Raglani like Ruggiano is a little old, but he's having a good season with a .293/.399/.444 batting line. Raglani leads the team in walks with 42 in 232 ABs, but he needs to cut down on the strikeouts (59) and increase his power (.151 ISO).
The Dodgers starting pitcher, Glenn Bott, took the loss, allowing 3 runs (all earned) in 4.2 innings on 4 hits and 5 walks, striking out 8. Bott is a 23-year old left-hander, and not considered a prospect. He was recently demoted from Jacksonville. Since his demotion, he's pitched 8.2 innings, allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits and 9 walks, while striking out 13. The pitching performance was rounded out by Alvis Ojeda (21), Justin Simmons (23), and Casey Hoorelbeke (25). Ojeda allowed the 4th run (earned) in 2.1 innings of work. Ojeda, Simmons, and Hoorelbeke are not considered prospects. Simmons was drafted in the 21st round in the 2004 draft from the University of Texas.
Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
The Catfish beat Hickory 12 - 6.
In the fourth part of the chain, Jeremy Brown, a draft-and-follow from the 2004 draft, was promoted from the GCL Dodgers. Brown was drafted in the 37th round of the 2004 draft out of Pratt Community College in Kansas. In 21 at-bats with the GCL Dodgers, Brown was batting .286/.423/.286. As Nate reported earlier, the best performance of the evening was by designated-hitter Travis Denker. Denker went 3 for 3, with 2 homeruns, 2 walks, 4 runs scored and 3 RBIs. His overall batting line of .287/.412/.498 is extremely impressive for a second baseman. Denker's 60 walks in 279 at-bats leads the Sally League, which I'm sure DePodesta has noticed. Denker is making a claim for top second base prospect in the Dodgers organization, as Delwyn Young will likely move to the outfield and Tony Abreu is not hitting for power. Including Antonio Perez and Willy Aybar, second base is one of the deepest position in the Dodgers organization. Third baseman Blake Dewitt had a good night, going 2 for 4 with a double and walk, scoring once and driving in another. Moneyball favorite, and last year's 6th round draft pick, Daniel Batz, also had a good night, going 3 for 5 with a double, a run scored and 4 RBIs. Backup shortstop Dominique Laurin hit a solo homerun for the second day in a row.
Blake Johnson started the game and got the win, but his performance was poor. Johnson pitched 6 innings, allowing 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits (1 homerun), while striking out 3. Johnson was the Dodgers 2nd round draft pick in last year's draft out of Parkview Baptist High School in Louisiana.
Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors lost 6 - 5 to Idaho Falls.
Every night I feel like I'm raving about right fielder Sergio Pedroza, but he just keeps hitting. In the game, Pedroza went 3 for 5, keeping his batting average right around .600 (.593 to be exact). 18-year old second baseman Jesus Soto went 2 for 5 with a solo homerun and a double, scoring twice. 18-year old shortstop Juan Rivera went 2 for 4 with a double and a walk, scoring once. In 10 games with Ogden, Rivera hasn't shown much power with a .318/.412/.364 batting line. Third baseman Russell Mitchell hit a homerun for the second night in a row (a 2-run shot in the 3rd, his 5th HR of the season). Overall, Mitchell went 2 for 5, and now leads the Pioneer League in homeruns. Left fielder B.J. Richmond had a great night, going 2 for 2 with a double and 2 walks, but only scored once. Richmond was the Dodgers 7th round draft pick in the 2004 draft out of Spartanburg Methodist Junior College in South Carolina. Richmond, a 21-year old left-handed outfielder, has a batting line of .333/.388/.467 in 12 games for Ogden, and is not much of a prospect.
Starting pitcher David Pfeiffer (19 years old) only pitched 2.2 innings to record the loss, allowing 5 runs (all earned) on 7 hits and a walk, while striking out 1. Jordan Pratt, a 20-year old right-hander, and Ramon Troncoso, a 22-year old right-hander, both pitched well in relief. Pratt pitched 3.1 innings of scoreless relief, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out 5. In 10.2 innings for Ogden, Pratt has yet to allow a run, while striking out 13. Pratt was a 5th round draft pick in the 2003 draft, and this is his third time through the Pioneer League. Troncoso pitched a perfect inning of relief, striking out 2. Troncoso was demoted from Columbus to join the Raptors and is not a prospect.
GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers lost 5 - 4 to the GCL Nationals.
The Dodgers 18-year old designated hitter, Josh Bell, had a good night, going 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored, but striking out twice. Bell was the Dodgers fourth round pick in the 2005 draft from Santaluces High School in Florida. His batting line of .314/.314/.343 in 9 games is not impressive. Second round pick, Ivan DeJesus, started the game at shorstop and went 0 for 5 with a walk. His batting line of .222/.276/.222 in 7 games has not been good. With 2 doubles on the night, the GCL Dodgers passed the GCL Mets to move into second-to-last place in extra-base-hits.
The Dodgers pitching was consistently mediocre, as the team went through 5 pitchers on the night (Steven Johson, Chris Hobdy, Wilfredo Diaz, Kalen Gearheart, and Miguel Ramirez). Ramirez, a 21-year old right-hander, took the loss allowing one run (earned) in 2 innings pitched. Johnson (13th round), Hobdy (7th round), and Diaz (15th round) were all selected in the 2005 draft.
I remember the "POW" game. It was on KHJ, channel 9, I believe, just after Richard Blade's Video One show. Anyway, it was laughable--I'd love to see a tape of it now.
http://tinyurl.com/8ha63
Continuing my am tour of Baseball Toaster, for those feeling a bit, um, bearish about the Dodgers these days, the Cubs post that's up is a pretty good look at life on another side of the fence. As you can see from the link above, it's titled: "That's Not a Mouldering Corpse. That's My Team!"
http://tinyurl.com/876cb
Here's a brief excerpt:
Despite the strong showing, Jackson will now spend some time in the bullpen as part of a new concept that Dodgers pitching coordinator Rick Honeycutt has carved out for all of the organization's minor-league starters. The plan is for them to take a couple turns in the bullpen on a rotating basis before returning to their role as a starter.
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