Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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Turns out Takashi Saito was ill and unavailable to pitch today, making the Dodgers that much thinner in the bullpen in Colorado and the pressure on Danys Baez that much greater.
Given that, it surprises me even more now than it did this afternoon that Grady Little removed Jonathan Broxton after a one-two-three seventh inning, even with lefty Todd Helton leading off the eighth. But so it went. Joe Beimel took over in the eighth and got in trouble, but Baez came in and got a double play, than wiggled out of a Vin Scully Deuces Wild special - two on, two out, 2-2 to Helton - to close the game out on a pop fly to right field (in an at-bat in which Helton really was uppercutting his swing).
Here at Dodger Thoughts, we had a long postgame discussion in the comments about the boost today's save would provide Baez. The double play in the eighth "gave me a lot of confidence," Baez told reporters. "It was like I was back in charge." Does that mean anything. Some people said so, but I was more skeptical. Here are some of my responses:
All this talk of the importance of making Baez confident is a little disconcerting. I'm sure he was confident right up to the time his slump began. I'm sure he was just as nervous pitching in San Francisco last weekend as he was today.Baez is what he is - a guy who will sometimes do the job, maybe more often than not. Neither today's game nor the San Francisco collapse are indicative of any trend. It's good that he got the save today because he got the save today. It doesn't make him a better pitcher going forward. ...
Even a confident Baez is completely mediocre, and a Baez lacking in confidence is not much worse. Even a confident Baez will still miss with his pitches, he will still tire. Why do I say this? Because back when Baez was "confident," this was happening. ...
If Baez is really a professional, he understands that sometimes you lose with your best stuff and win without it. Yes, he'll be relieved today that he's not in some Job-like nightmare, but I think that's about as far as that goes.
If Baez faces Vlad Friday night with two on and two out in a one-run game, I don't think his chances of success or failure have been altered significantly by what happened today. He'd still be in deep trouble, and hoping. He'll know he can get Guerrero out, but I absolutely refuse to believe that he pitched to Helton thinking that he could not get Helton out. ...
What I'm saying is that confidence is only of X value, and that all kinds of other human frailties come into play.
I'm not threadjacking though. I think a pitcher's confidence goes up in direct correlation to the drop on his sinker. No drop = no confidence.
Baez' confidence will come back when he starts pitching better. Plain and simple.
Yeah, speaking of bullpen implosions, how about the Padres' Shaun Cassidy, I mean, Scott Cassidy?
Why didn't the Rangers think of that last night?
And Giles has made it 14-10.
"Confidence is very sexy...don't you think?"
8 Ah.
or as my Bollywood-loving friends would say, "Ai yah."
'k, gotta go watch and review a straight to video movie now. Fun!
So much for the D'Backs Yankee-like comeback.
None of you know me so I can admit I'm going back to Idol now.
He looked really good out of the gate (WBC) He's been a huge disapointement for seattle.
Almost never will I call out a writer for an incorrect prediction - God knows my track record over the years. (Like my early-90s touting of Carlos Baerga as a preseason MVP pick.) But Welch was extremely unreasonable over Beltre. He was convinced had Adrian come back for 2005 and beyond, Dodger Stadium's postgame traffic problems would've vanished, among other miracles.
The Golden Calf?
The Austin Kearns Scouting Expedition?
I think you would have plenty of time to prepare.
Must be a side effect of interleague play.
bonus: there's a nice beach towel being given away on sunday the 25th of june. and it's a day game, which may be preferable?
This weekend, teams should be playing their "natural rivals". But the Pirates don't have one. They play Cleveland, but they don't play them a second time. They play just 15 interleague games.
The Dodgers play the Angels 6 times, Oakland and Seattle 3 times each and Minnesota 3 times, 15 games in all.
Some of the other teams play 18 interleague games.
In the Baseball Prospectus 2004 book, there's a long section in the Red Sox article that talks about how poorly Grady handled the 'closer by committee' Sox pen in 2003. Their point was that he would have everybody pitch one inning, with different guys pitching the ninth, eighth, etc. No matter how they were pitching, he would shuttle people in and out, was the critique.
So Broxton threw, I believe, 13 pitches in fanning two guys and otherwise totally shutting the Rox down in the seventh. So we knew he was throwing well. Every time you go to another reliever, you have to ask: does this guy have it today? When that somebody is Joe Beimel, despite his ability to avoid disaster so far, you have to REALLY wonder whether he will have it today.
I just wish Grady and other managers would look at more variables besides (1) the handedness of batter/pitcher and (2) relation to save situation. Broxton misses bats. So does Saito, although I notice Japanese relievers tend to have a short shelf life, once the league sees them a few times (Takatsu, Otsuka). Those guys should be out there in tight games, not Joe Beimel.
I tend to agree with Jon. Confidence isn't going to improve Baez's ability to get outs. It may only change his decision making on the mound.
I think if anyone is gaining confidence from his outing yesterday, it is the faithful dodger fan - not Baez despite his quote about its return.
And if he did truely doubt his ability to get outs and be a utilitarian ML closer due to 2-3 rough outings, then he probably isn't the best guy for the job.
-Mark Twain
And I stumbled upon this, of course:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.asp?sport=MLB&column=94
Granted if you're lousy, you're lousy no matter how much you trust your stuff, but I would rather have a guy out there who has confidence in throwing all of his pitches.
I'm not talking about "I'm the king of the world" confidence, but "Hey, I can throw this pitch where I want it".
I feel I'm getting into the "Does [put c-word here] breed success, or does success breed [c-word]" thing, so I'm just sorta asking.
I heard John Kruk say that the Reds were in it for the long haul because of their improved pitching behind Bronson Arroyo, and their ability to score runs without relying on the long ball.
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