I hope Lowe can match Liriano tonight, and/or match his performance in his previous start. The Twins are really hot - why do the Dodgers keeping the hottest AL teams when they've done interleague this month. Oh well, we shall see.

Is Hendrickson starting tomorrow or is it still Perez?

1 Presumably Perez, as Hendrickson pitched on Sunday

The Dodgers are facing "hot" interleague teams because the AL teams are beating the tar out of the NL. Everybody in the AL is getting well now. Even the Royals!

Hendrickson pitched Sunday, we probably won't see him until Friday at the earliest (if they want to have him go on 4 days rest). So, most likely it will be Saturday.

Dodger players who attended Washington State:
Ron Cey
Mark Hendrickson
Mike Kinkade
Tom Niedenfuer
Aaron Sele

3 Well, maybe, it is true the AL's kicking the pants off the NL - but the Twins are the hottest team in baseball and didn't the A's win 10 straight when we played them? Also: I'd be fine if LA played the Royals instead of the Twins.

Oh and thanks, I stupidly had forgotten Hendrickson had pitched Sunday so my question should be retracted (if I could retract stupid questions).

I think Liriano K's atleast 11.

Is Gammons out of surgery and in ICU now?

I am going to a Baseball Prospectus event at Petco this Friday and I will ask Joe Sheehan about any slight he feels from the old guard of the Baseball Writers Association.

An aside, I heard Tony Jackson on the pregame show the other day and he gave a very SABR friendly response on one of his pet peeves, the sacrifice bunt and why NL teams use it with the top part of their lineup.

I looked at the stats and found that the Dodgers are tied for second fewest sacrifices (by non-pitchers) with 11 in the NL.

Liriano was traded away by the Giants when Ned Colletti was assistant general manager.

While I'm on the fence regarding Mr. Ned, I don't know if that's entirely fair to him. I don't see anybody making reference to Kim Ng's role in today's trade.

The creator of the Dodger Dog has died...

http://tinyurl.com/fkwyd

10 - Noted earlier today in one of my posts.

9 - I apologize - I put that in because of the coincidental timing, not because I was pinning that on Colletti.

A little different topic, but I haven't seen any comments on this. Wasn't anybody as disturbed as I was when Grady apparently let Tomko stay in in order to qualify for a win when he was running the risk of aggravating a serious injury. An injury that did indeed land him on the disabled list. And yet he pulled Penny in similar circumstances when it was just a question of whether he was losing his stuff.

11 Dang it.. That's what I get for working outside all day.

Nate, come home. You're speaking a strange language over there that none of them understand.

12 - I noticed, but I harp on that kind of thing so much, I didn't have the energy to talk about it.

I hate to see what other deals are in store, after the Dodgers get done playing the Cards 7 times next month.

I consider this deal a panic deal and the team is in 1st at 40-36.
What will happen when things really go bad?

14
Is Nate at the dodgers.com board trying to argue haha?

What's the big deal about facing the Cardinals?

The Cardinals have lost seven straight and with the exception of one game have been lit up.

Are there some great pitchers on the Cardinals that I have been missing this year?

14

I am at a point of no return: argument to the death!

15 Jon was wise enough not to crash into the wall making the catch and lives to fight another day. Is Gagne paying attention? Or Jason Repko? We can all learn something from Amos Otis.

Not happy. Seo for Hendrickson - not much of improvement if any. Navarro for whoever, a potential trade bait of some value for another David Ross-Brent Mayne.

Maybe Odalis will come around tonight?

BTW Ned's comment about a number one starter came in the context of being asked about Willis which he could not comment on, so I think he has an idea of what a number one starter looks like, though I don't really see that many or any being available.

For those who missed it, he said that if he could get a number one, he would deal some prospects, not a boatload but one or two top prospects.

The Cardinals have lost seven straight and with the exception of one game have been lit up.

They were facing the White Sox and Tigers, probably the two best teams in baseball.
I'd rather not face them with Pujols/Edmonds/Rolen in the middle of their lineup.

Their pitching isnt great, but it'll improve with Marquis/Mulder out of the rotation, and some kids in it.

I think the Cards will probably win 5 of 7 against the Dodgers, maybe more.

11 Sorry to misunderstand the intent. Thanks for clearing that up!

Colletti on 710 AM hinted he was looking for a top of the rotation pitcher, and was willing to part with one or two prospects to do it. He wouldn't cop to it being Dontrelle Willis, but that's what Steve Mason threw him.

Re: Statistics. Well, to be fair, Colletti justified the trade on somewhat of a statistical basis. Tropicana Field has a fast fake turf, so they were judging Hendrickson primarily on how he pitched on the road, in conditions more like Dodger Stadium. Colletti said his road numbers were much better than home numbers.

Toronto, his old team, also plays on vinyl, right?

As I predicted, Colletti also suggested Hall was "power off the bench." I wonder if he's going to be such a sweetheart as a backup, since he's started his whole career so far.

Sorry, meant Odalis coming around on Wed. nite.

Nate, do we have to kill it to save it?

Colletti also suggested Hall was "power off the bench."

A Grabowski that catches?
Nice.

21
Maybe Odalis will come around tonight?

That would be typical of Perez to come around tonight...since he's not pitching til tomorrow night.

27

that might be the only way they can be saved.

18 When your second leading HR hitter is Juan Encarnación, you should not be feared.

The Cardinals have been outscored 65-27 in their losing streak.

The Cardinals are pretty much like any other above average team in the NL.

I don't see why it is incessantly drummed into our heads that the Cardinals will beat the Dodgers so much. It's like Cato the Elder talking about Carthage.

28 Acutally, Grabowski did catch. That was one of the justifications for keeping him around, presumably like Sandy Alomar.

The Cardinals are pretty much like any other above average team in the NL

There's only like two above average teams in the Nl. The Mets and Cardinals.

32 - C'mon, quit comparing everything to Cato the Elder.

The Cardinals are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Reds.

So there you go.

I'm having this sense Elbert will not be a Dodger prospect past this season.

Hall has a career slugging percentage of .382 (.120 ISO), how is that "power off the bench?"

I feel a victory today

37

that makes me sad :(

37 If that were true, I hope that means he's rushed to the majors, so that he's a Dodger as opposed to a Dodger prospect.

40
Me too. And I am sure when he is dealt, we get to hear that he was past by Kershaw as the best lefty pitcher in our system. Because for some reason, we only want one left-handed starter.

42

stop. I can't take it anymore.

Does anyone think Jim Tracy gets a chance to coach David Price? Or is he gone by the time Price is in the majors?

(Yes, I am assuming Pirates finish last)

38 As I mentioned in the last thread, Hall is now in second place on the team with 8 home runs, trailing only Drew, who has 9.

Woo hoo! We're gonna run away with this division! I love this team!

(apologies to bluetahoe)

37 I don't see any teams dealing for a High A pitcher as a major cog in a deal, more than likely it will be for some of the guys that have already showed they could play in the majors.

Now that will make more people here sad than someone who is still on the Vero Beach/Jacksonville shuttle.

30 -- But we just purged! How many putsches can we go through? I mean sure, there are as many GM candidates as there are gullible morons in the world, but won't we just do this in perpetuity until Mr. Don't Just Do Something, Stand There! sells the team to Dave Checketts?

46
I think Ethier is the only rookie that could be dealt. Martin is not going anywhere. A riot would break out if Kemp was traded. They can't afford to get rid of Broxton. And for some reason no one seems to think much of Willy Aybar.

Well I am playing dodgers GM on the minorleagueball.com trade deadline game thing.

Hopefully I can do better then Colletti.

What about dealing Saito?

49
Nice. I was wondering who was going to take the Dodgers.

49 Do you have any untouchables?

52

Nah, I'm open to anything.

Nate, if this makes you feel better, as I stated in another thread, I think this trade leads to Alomar, Hall, DeWitt, and Hendrickson for Sal Fasano.

54
Take DeWitt out and that trade is cool with me.

54

Well, prying Sal Fasano away from the Phillies is going to be one of my priorities. So dont you worry, Sal's Pal's will be coming to the Ravine.

Can anyone tell me how long we have hendrickson and hall under control?
And at what price or how many years of arbitration?

57

Hendrickson has two more years of arbitration after this year. Hall is a free agent after this year.

48 Don't forget Guzman.

Hendrickson looks like an elongated Ben Roethlisberger.

Grady what is your opinion of Hendrickson?
"Well, he's tall..."

I posted this at the end of the other thread in response to Jon's argument regarding why Hendrickson is likely to regress to the angry. I'm reposting it here because I'm curious about what input others have on this issue.

"As Hendrickson's line-drive percentage regresses to the angry (the term I'm using because I'm tired of saying "regresses to the mean"), the number of hits he allows will rise, because line drives tend to be converted into hits more often than any other type of ball in play."
I'm wondering how fine-grained this analaysis is. Is it the case that the stat is determined based on something as fine-grained as the Fielding+ statistic that was mentioned several days ago? Or, rather, is the stat based on line drives in general?
I ask because it seems like this would make a difference. If a pitcher gives up a high percentage of line drives, but usually directed at position players, then a poor defense will obviously allow more hits to fall in. If the defense is lucky and/or good, then the pitcher's statistics will reflect this.
If, on the other hand, a pitcher generally gives up lots of line drives in the gap, but hasn't recently, then this would appear to be a bigger problem.

59
Oh yeah good point, I forgot about Guzman. Yeah, he will probably be dealt.

I would have no problem adding Guzman to any deal, so long as it nets a legitimate, and I mean legitimate 1 or 2 starter.

61 As I said in the other post, there is zero correllation year to year for line drive percentage, ergo, it's pretty much entirely luck based.

I don't feel either way about this trade--no big deal. The only good thing is that it unloads a lot of our tradable goods and decreases the probability that we will make a stupid blockbuster, including Isturiz and some good prospects.

64 - But if the stat only measures luck, then how useful is it? That is to say, what sorts of predictions can be made on that basis?
This is why I was thinking that it might make sense to make the stat more fine-grained -- i.e., combine with something like Fielding+ in order to determine how hard opposing batters tend to hit the ball against a pitcher, and where the ball tends to be hit. Perhaps making the stat more precise could tell you how much the defense tends to play a role in the pitcher's luck, or lack thereof.

63
I agree. I am willing to part with Guzman over any of our other top prospects.

Though, after seeing Troy Glaus play SS, I am starting to dream about Joel up the middle again haha.

Wow, we had navarro for 4 or 5 more years and he would have been arguably the best backup catcher in baseball, but now we have a guy who as far as career stats go, is absolutely nothing with the bat and under control only for this year.

The hendrickson for seo thing doesn't bother me, its the navarro for hall thing that bothers me, we gave up arguably the best backup catcher in the game for no improvement.

64 I thought you said it was a negative correlation.

69 Very slightly negative. R=-.03

This Izturis at 3rd base thing will last exactly how long?

71 The man has 21 at bats and is hitting .381. What more do you want?

I was more/less looking at his 2,000+ career at bats.

From BA Hot Prospect List:
James Loney, 1b, Dodgers (Triple-A Las Vegas): Seemingly the lone example of a Dodger prospect stuck in the minors, Loney has not slowed since Los Angeles sent him to Triple-A Las Vegas on April 24. In June, the first baseman is hitting .388, and proving there is power in his bat with a .573 slugging percentage for the month.

Career sub .700 OPS shouldnt be starting at 3rd base.

71 Until someone makes an offer for Izzy and they have a better idea about LaRoche's injury.

Note: Just because the ball is inside, doesn't mean you can't hit it.

Given the Dodgers current options, who would you rather start at third?

we gave up arguably the best backup catcher in the game for no improvement

At AAA?

Nomar at 3rd with Saenz at 1st.
Aybar at 3rd
Saenz at 3rd

3 options that are better than Izturis at 3rd.

DodgerSims predicts a 5-3 victory for the Blue Crew this evening. After nailing three sims in a row the last two have been way off. Hopefully tonight's coin toss will be right on.
WP-Lowe, LP-Liriano, H-Broxton, SV:Saito.
vr, Xei

Career sub .700 OPS shouldnt be starting at 3rd base.

Exactly.
Saenz should be playing 3b, cruz should be DHing allowing ethier to start in the outfield and be in the lineup instead of izturis.

Ethier > izturis.
Maximize your assets especially with this pitching staff.

I smell a shutout today.

79. Yeah pretty dumb trade. I can see using Navarro as trade bait as we have a very good young catcher in Martin. If Colleti felt compelled to trade him, instead of getting junk for him, why not atleast trade him for a decent minor league pitcher to help bolster the pitching pipeline??
vr, Xei

Another hit.

80 Okay, given the things the Dodgers will actually do (Saenz is not a full time player, and Aybar, well, I don't know what's wrong with him, but Grady sure doesn't like him), who would you play at third.

I'm not saying Izturis is the best option, but given the choice between him and Ramon Martinez, I'll take Izturis.

Kent has no range.

You have more faith in lefties against Liriano?

Aybar at 3rd is not a better option than Izturis, imho. Certainly not defensively, and it's not even Izturis' natural position (he's looked fine so far though). Saenz is a nice option but can't play 3rd all that often - his delicate body doesn't hold up to starting every day, especially not at the hot corner. The first option wouldn't be too bad, but again, Saenz doesn't start every day and I think defensively Izturis might be better than Nomar at 3rd. Just my two cents.

And Xei - I'm rooting for the Sim. Go Sim!

79

At AAA?

What?
Navarro should be our backup catcher for years to come.
Too late now, and at no improvement.

Izturis shouldn't be playing third everyday.

That would not be a hit in dodger stadium. No wonder Mauer is batting .380.

82
Willy Aybar should be starting a third base. I am not a fan of Saenz at all.

90.

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS? You could pick those off the street for all I care. The point is we got rid of Seo, and got a decent pitcher in return.

Okay, given the things the Dodgers will actually do

Thats usually the heart of the problem.

79-

not only did we give away what could have been a great back up catcher for no improvement, we're also paying Hall a heck of a lot more than Navarro would have made.

TB, didnt you think Seo was a decent pitcher when the Dodgers got him, and alot of other people were saying he wasnt good bc of the peripherals?

This is the same situation. Hendrickson isnt a decent pitcher. Navarro is better than Toby Hall.

Thats basically the crux.

93

Willy Aybar should be starting a third base. I am not a fan of Saenz at all.

Well yes of course, its just he's not on the team right now.
The dodgers should bring back aybar and platoon him with saenz at 3b.
Saenz vs lefties, he kills lefties.

94
Because that "backup" was a vlauble trading asset and we dumped him for a pitcher who has not proven he is better than Seo.

Aybar should be traded for Scott Baker. And in my world, he is going to be.

82 Well David Bell and Nick Punto certainly fall in that range.

Sounds like D. Lowe is on his game, low counts and ground balls.

This is going to be ridiculous. Liriano is going to carve us up.

Who's going to play third base in your world Nate?

94 Should the Phillies have traded Ryan Howard or Jim Thome for nothing then?

92-

what evidence is there that that's not a hit at DS? Mauer is hitting .380 because he's one of the best hitters in the league.

Did you see the movement on that second pitch to kemp? WOW

94

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS? You could pick those off the street for all I care.

Catchers need more days off than anyone else, so i wouldn't want anyone off the streets let alone hall.

The point is we got rid of Seo, and got a decent pitcher in return.

Decent pitcher?, no we didn't.

I consider Aaron Rowand just slightly more than nothing, but your point still stands.

100
If only we lived in your world Nate.

103

well Laroche in the near future.

94-

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS?

I do. Especially when the catcher we're getting in return isn't as good, is owed more money, and is only under control for this year instead of numerous years of Navarro.

Hendrickson isnt a decent pitcher.<<

A 3.81 ERA in the American League is pretty good.

And his road ERA is 2.20, and 2.09 on grass. I'd say that's decent.

109

too add, I would basically bite the bullet on izzy and olmedo manning 3b for the rest of the season. Izturis plays, shows that he is healthy and I think we can get more from him in the winter then at the trade deadline.

112-

that's one half of one season.

Nate's World - yay

Ned's World - shudder

112

ERA this and ERA that.

STOP looking at ERA, START looking at PERIPHERALS.

112
Brett Tomko had a good ERA for awhile too.

Morneau with the 3-0 green light?
Interesting.

112

Just dont get your hopes too high. Danys Baez is an example of just looking at a pitchers era and going "oh look mommy, a good pitcher! can we take him home?"

Yes it is. But it is a pretty good half.

You know he holds hitters to a .241 average right?

FL,JN,BB4AJP

Worlds Where Mark Hendrickson Is Considered Anything But Garbage -- Fantasyland, Wonderland, Ned Colletti's Cobwebbed Brain

113
Interesting.

Am I reading correctly that Clemens just tried to pick off Ramon Santiago 5 straight times?

THinkingBlue you said Tomko/Seo would be good before the year started bc of those same stats you are signing to prop up Hendrickson.

ERA has a meaning, but the periperhals tell you whats inside those numbers, and whether the ERA is meaingfull. I'm surprised you havent learned your lesson, but then again the guy in charge making the decisions hasnt apparently either.

I was wondering where Rueben was.

We can't give up a run because we are not going to score any. I am hoping for a 0-0 tie.

122 and formerly my AL-only fantasy team

Rueben is still playing!!!!

1.28WHIP .369SLUGG .312OBA still decent MB.

I have both Lowe and Liriano in fantasy, one of them needs to get a W.

130

You are not getting it.

I dislike fantasy baseball, and I am continually reminded why.

Lofton lights a fire under Steiner and Lyons causing them to drool all over Kenny.

Last night aside, this team is on a pace to score more runs than any Los Angeles Dodger team since they moved to LA.

This is despite not having a single player with double digit home runs.

Now, this approach works when you can see a pitcher a few times but in close games where you often need a home run to make the difference, this is where they are lacking.

But as we approach the midway point, it can be no longer considered a fluke that this is a pretty good if unconventional offensive team.

132 -- Perhaps you should try a flashing web-site that says .241 BAA

This is the bottom line of the trade:
Hendrickson = seo
Hall < navarro

We gave away navarro to swap the same pitcher and downgraded at catcher.

130-

not to mention you're still looking at ONE HALF OF A SEASON.

133
Yeah, but it is probably the only chance I will get to root for Liriano on my team.

Welp, there goes the game

GAME OVER!!!!

But Midas says that Hendrickson and Hall are LIGHTS OUT.

That is the cheapeast RBI HBP I may have ever seen. If that guy comes up again with no one on I say plunk him for reals.

I suppose calling up Loney and putting Nomar on third (where we should have signed him to play in the first place) makes too much sense to appeal to retards like Little and Colletti...

This is why the DH sucks. Lowe must have forgotten that the next batter is not the pitcher. I could never love an American League team and the DH is the leading reason why.

Hey, we like Grittle! Usually.

Was it yesterday we had the walk-off homerun in the third? Today we have a walk-off HBP in the second.

Okay well, I might go do something else now.

Nate, who do you think goes no 1 in the NBA draft?

Say Goodnight Gracy!!!

Ummm, I think we can call the sweep now

Guys, it's nothing Mark Hendrickson won't fix.

145 - oh, because watching the pitcher flail weakly at ball four is such a pile of excitement?

The DH is coming to the NL. Maybe not this year, maybe not next, but soon, and for the rest of your life.

Nate, who do you think goes no 1 in the NBA draft?

The crappy Euro.

Well this is the first Derek Lowe blowup since opening day except that was home runs.

There is no one in the bullpen to call in lol.

152 - Steve, you're an evil, evil man.

Meantime, it's humiliation time.

If Gameday were any slower it would acually be moving backwards in time.

Don't go yet, Nate. I haven't told you about the 80 BOMBS Hendrickson has given up in 646.1 career IP.

116 - Well, above I asked a direct question about how one of the peripherals is measured. No one has answered it yet.

Apparently, the strategy in most arguments about the trade here today is to keep repeating the same thing over and over, and hope that makes it true. Then, when that fails, make fun of the people who disagree with you. Sounds like a sound recipe for civil debate to me.

The only sad thing for Minnesota is that they took the first two months off, they will wake up tomorrow and still be double digits out of the division and wild card.

Use cbs.sportsline.com's version, sometimes the pitches update faster than the TV station's ball-strike count does.

When do we play the PIRATES again????

Spot Liriano six runs. There's a different approach.

Yeah, I think they take him.

The chance of Rudy Gay going number 1 is real interesting. Pair him up with Villanueva again. The Raptors won't have a massive front line, but they will have an extremely long one.

There has been an Edwin Jackson sighting in Florida.

So, just tuning in! How's it goin'?

......haw, chees.

Wow, Martin's new mustache is probably the greatest thing ever, too bad it didn't translate into immediate success.

What the heck to Martin do to his face?

Derek Lowe never pitched this bad when Jae Seo was on the club.

Did Colletti undervalue Seo's chem factor?

If Nomar's BA drops at any point from here on out we'll know the reason why.

Can we call Martin Closseau now? lol

Martin is copying Kent with his 'stache.

160 - what was the question?

...and EJax promptly gives up a 2-run homer

Wow, Martin's new mustache is probably the greatest thing ever, too bad it didn't translate into immediate success. ....

unlike beards. If you didn't notice, Martin's beard growth coincided with his recent hot streak.

Yep, its true. Believe in the power of the beard.

173 - See 61 and 66.

...and EJax promptly gives up a 2-run homer

He's lost without David Ross.

*Clouseau

160 - I understand you're upset, but it's starting to bother me that you're making these generalizations about the conduct in here based on the behavior of just a few people.

There has been plenty of civil and evolving discussion in here, but again, you just don't seem to want to see it.

That being said - for the people in here who are taunting other commenters or making incendiary remarks, please stop.

I did not respond to 116 because I did not know how to. That might be the case for others as well.

160

Well, above I asked a direct question about how one of the peripherals is measured. No one has answered it yet.

I don't know what you are asking, but i'll take a shot.

Hendrickson's career peripherals are:
10.83 h/9
1.13 hr/9
2.38 w/9
4.41 k/9

That says to me that he allowes a high number of hits a slightly high amount of homers doesn't walk many and doesn't strikeout many.

179 - Sorry, I meant 61 and 66, not 116.

175 - rally beards?

I can't even begin to think about knowing how to answer that question.

He's lost without David Ross.

Aren't we all.

Steiner just mentioned Clouseau.

I am psychic.

If we start struggling to score runs, don't be shocked if a "ProvenRBIGuy4Kemp" exchange rears its homely head.

Yeah, wasn't 3rd base supposedly bad for Izturis arm? I thought the doctor wanted him to play 2nd.

Is an error by the thirdstop scored "E 5.5"?

I thought the doctor wanted him to play 2nd.

How about you just stop giving them any other bright ideas, m-kay?

If we are going to start both Furcal and Izturis, then make Izturis the SS.

NICE CATCH Cruz!!

160

Line-drive percentage is determined by subjective observation. Stringers differentiate ground balls from flyballs from line drives.

Some analysis of line drive percentages over a broad population of players indicates that the amount of line drives a pitcher allows is not within his control. This is a very controversial proposition, and should in no way be considered as fact, despite the prevailing dogma here.

Before I get flamed, I will allow that there is validity to the hypothesis that line drive percentage is largely attributable to luck. However, these studies have looked at a broad swath of the league, and some people declaring here that the Hendrickson trade is crap because he's nothing but a lucky SOB ignore that luck is not the only factor.

Just because, in general, pitchers who have a drop-off in line drive percentage (like Hendrickson) or an increase in line drive percentage (like Odalis Perez), doesn't necessarily mean that the rule applies to each and every pitcher. It could actually mean that Hendrickson is enjoying a resurgence and that Perez's career is over.

I think Jon wrote about this in relation to Perez a couple weeks back.

189
Believe me, I do not want Izturis at second.

184 -- We once were lost, but now we're found.

How about an infield of Robles (3B), Furcal (SS), Izturis (2B), Martinez (1B)?

193

Thank you.

Nomar with a little extra credit.

What a waste. Nomar's out of homeruns.

Better luck next year, A.

Who is going to be the All-Star for the Royals?

179 - Fair enough. I've been a long-time reader, and decided to start posting today, since I often enjoy the discussions that go on here. Perhaps I picked the wrong day to start. When someone tries to give arguments and information, and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners, then it makes one reconsider why they signed up for the site in the first place.
As for 116, the line drive statistic I thought was the strongest argument that Hendrickson would have trouble in L.A. That said, the stat seems to have a few potential problems, which makes it less clear how Hendrickson's performance will translate to the Dodgers. I was simply trying to offer a suggestion on how to make the stat more refined, is all.

That's not possible...he used up all of his homerun. I guess that means he's going to drive in more than 100 this year.

180 Well, you could opt to try and look on the bright side by using this year's numbers:

8.13 h/9
1.00 hr/9
3.43 w/9
5.12 k/9

looks like he's walking more people this year but giving up considerably less hits with improving K and HR rates. Hard to say if it's true improvement or not, maybe the whole "better on grass" thing will improve his numbers even more.

192 I'd be more inclined to believe that if his line drive percentage wasn't so obscenly low (1.4% lower than second place).

201 Yeah, the problem with the line drive stat is that I'm not an expert, I'm simply quoting what I read in the Hardball Times Annual. I can't go into more depth than what they give me.

BTW does anyone think that the construction of the Red Sox follows any sort of statiscal analysis, with the guru of modern baseball stat analysis in the front office, does the moves that they make more SABR sense or baseball sense?

When someone tries to give arguments and information, and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners, then it makes one reconsider why they signed up for the site in the first place.

It's just a bad day/bad timing. Don't judge the comment section by this one bad day. Most of the time, its really good! :)

...and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners...

We're sorry.

We've read too much Plaschke over the years.

Dangit Nomar, get a rally started. We're down 6 runs! The last thing we need is a solo HR...

It could actually mean that Hendrickson is enjoying a resurgence

If Hendrickson was enjoying a resurgence, then his other rates should noticeably improve. They havent much.

So we're not doing jokes and one liners anymore? If you'll excuse me, Bob, Steve, SamDC and I will be over at The Griddle. But not the Gammons thread. That would be horrible.

208 - Too much Plaschke is definitely not a good thing. :)

200 DeJesus? German? Dessens? Maybe Lance Carter can be the Royals' honorary all star.

To have a resurgence wouldn't Hendrickson need to have had a surge?

Farce begets farce.

you could opt to try and look on the bright side by using this year's numbers

Thats part of the problem.
His peripherals this season, in an obvious career year for Hendrickson, are still below average. He's a 4.50-5.00 ERA level pitcher, not a difference maker. His ERA this season doesnt jive with what his peripherals say it should be. So Hendrickson is basically fluff. An illusion. The distressing thing is Dodger management bought it.

To have a resurgence wouldn't Hendrickson need to have had a surge?

Well, he did have a hell of a growth spurt in high school.

I'm unable to watch the game. Does Liriano look as fantastic as advertised?

I now see why Mauer is leading the league (or majors) in hitting.

Well that's $2MM down the drain for the Astros.

The Dodgers will be happy to get out of Minnesota, the Dome, the Baggie and the Turf.

OCDodgerfan=Los Angeles Dodgers fan of Anaheim?

214 I'm not a stats guru, but I'm pretty sure peripherals don't always have to correlate with success. Some guys just get opposing batters to make weak contact. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but there is a chance for Hendrickson to continue pitching well and maybe even improve. All this talk about peripherals makes it seem like there's no chance of Hendrickson being good at all for the rest of the year.

209 - A solo homer is a good way to start a rally actually. Just ask Odalis Perez . . .

Just to throw this out there, I think it should be said that the Oakland A's are not the real moneyball team, the Florida Marlins are. They're going to keep D-Train, and they're going to be really good in a few years.

221

I'm an OC Dodger fan as well.

I also like how after the error Izturis' fielding percentage is still higher than Furcal's.

Can someone please forward a different scouting report on Mauer to the Dodger dugout? Anytime before his next at bat would be nice.

Here are seo and hendrickson career peripherals, as you can see seo has better and neither are anything to brag about (which says alot about ned and pitching)
seo 9.29 h/9 1.00 hr/9 2.54 w/9 5.07 k/9
Hend. 10.83 h/9 1.13 hr/9 2.38 w/9 4.41 k/9

Seo's career has slightly been better than hendrickson.
I haven't looked at seo's peripherals so far this season, but i'm hearing hendrickson is having a better year.
But is hendrickson vs seo this season the difference between winning the world series and not?
If the answer to the above is no, then why did we give away navarro?

And its obvious navarro is better than hall.

So:
Hendrickson = seo (maybe hendrickson slightly better this season)
Hall < navarro

I just don't see anything else.

I'm done.

224

I know, but aren't you a Los Angeles Dodgers fan of El Toro, or something?

221 - of Irvine, actually.

Just to throw this out there, I think it should be said that the Oakland A's are not the real moneyball team, the Florida Marlins are. They're going to keep D-Train

If the Marlins are a moneyball team, wouldnt they trade D-Train in a similar way that Beane traded Mulder/Hudson?

wouldnt they trade D-Train in a similar way that Beane traded Mulder/Hudson?

Marlins have a 4 more years until Dtrain is a free agent. So they still might... in 3 years.

228

Rancho Santa Margarita. But EL Toro is close enough.

The Marlins are going to continue to proclaim that the D-Train is not available, and watch the price skyrocket up. If they're bowled over at the deadline, I believe they deal him. If not, he's gone in the offseason.

Liriano is filthy.
The Dodgers best lineup is against LHP, and he's working them all tonite.

232

Did I tell you about the time I waited in line for four hours at Tower Records in El Toro to get Slayer's autographs?

234 Thanks for the report. I've only seen him once before, and that was the general outcome.

I will be in Irvine on Thursday, before I head to Vegas. Sadly, none of my friends are willing to go to a 51's game :(

235
Nice.

Man, rough night for Izzy. Heck, for anyone not named Mauer or Liriano.

238

Very cool at the time. Not something I'd do today.

Gaffy's defense hasn't been nearly as good as I was led to believe it would be.

I think tonite's thread is the product of today's trade and the probability and realization of a tough night against the Twins and Liriano.

On the one hand, when a pitcher is on like Liriano, there isn't much you can do except hope that the AL trend continues and Zito beats up on the Padres. (BTW the A's are throwing out Zito, Blanton and Haren so they are not exactly facing an easy task either)

Can someone help me decide whether that play by Furcal was scrappy?

Gaffy's defense hasn't been nearly as good as I was led to believe it would be.

You'll love Gigantor II then.

The mustache lasted a logn time...

Now Martin name is Mach3 or Mach4.

Man, I didn't get a chance to see Martin's stache.

Sounded like that Furcal had no chance on that play, its one of those plays he could have just eaten ball.

Martin shaved the 'stache and got a hit. I feel a rally coming on.

Monday just said that Martin is now clean-shaven.

208 ...and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners...

Yes. Magical, isn't it?

I've been looking around other sites on this trade, and feel a little better about it. It seems more than likely that Hendrickson will

a) outperform our low expectations and

b) outperform Jae Seo.

The D-Rays definitely come out ahead on the Navarro for Hall part of it, but the Dodgers did need someone fitting the Toby Hall profile. Navarro's not a backup and Alomar's barely alive.

It's not a great trade, but it's not worth all the agita. SO let's sit back, and enjoy tonight's game... d'oh!

250
Oh, never mind.

Way to take a pitch Furcal.

Martin's mom must've called the clubhouse and told him grandma was watching the game.

Whether his play was good or not, he gets no points for making an out on the first pitch.

The best thing we can say about this game is that at least the Giants don't have Liriano.

251
Navarro's not a backup

Do you mean

1. he's too good to be a backup, and that we should do him a favor by giving him a chance to start somewhere else, or
2. he's not even good enough to be a backup?

For the record, I've been dropping the "The jury's out on Mauer/Prior" since the draft, only to be mocked by, well, everyone.

Vindication, thy name is arm trouble.

227
And its obvious navarro is better than hall.

Where it is the obvious part?

258

Where it is the obvious part?

Stats.

Mauer is absolutely ridiculous.

Maurer's on an unbelieable hot streak. He's hitting .442 over his last 86 ABs.

258
Navarro for his career is hitting .279/.361/.380 and this year is hitting .280/.372/.387. He is 22 years old.

Toby Hall for his career is hitting .262/.298/.382 and this year is hitting .231/.261/.398. He is 30 years old.

I don't know about Toby Hall's defense. Navarro hasn't been very good at throwing baserunners out (my memory, can't find exact numbers). If Hall can do that, that's something. But at the plate, Navarro is clearly better.

I told my friend to draft Mauer last year. This year I told him to do it again and he did not trust me because of what happened last year. Oops.

The joke is that this like an exact replay of the baez trade. The punchline finally comes when somebody actually tries to explain how "this time" its going to be different, and puts away the tired wheezes about Tampa bay being in the AL East.

260 He had 4 hits total last week.

Okay, Navarro is 0 for 16 on catching runners this year. Hall is 11 for 33 this year. So Hall has that going for him.

Catchers don't hit like this. Not even Bench hit like this.

Yo, Martin. You need a hitting role model? Look across the field to the other dugout.

Man.. those D-Rays are doing okay with the trades.

Tim Kurkjian has an article on ESPN about players with intangibles. Our Sandy Alomar topped his list.

264
Yep. If nothing else, this trade suggests that Ned learned nothing from the Carter trade.

Lowe gets to 100 pitches, comes out (not to say he's pitched a whale of a game tonight).

Somebody refresh my memory: when did pitch counts become such a big measuring stick?

264 - I wish I could see the bottom line as clearly as you always seem to. I wiggle around it but I can never hit it dead on.

Tampa's GM knows how to sell high.
And ned falls for it.

271
I think Lowe got hit in the foot by a ground ball.

Is Varitek still the leader in all-star balloting for AL cathcer?

http://tinyurl.com/olkpn
by Beimel

The Best left handed reliever in baseball is in. Our troubles are over.

271 Wasn't he removed because he was hit by the ball? I'll admit I've stopped paying full attention, so I could have missed what actually happened.

Bad nite for Derek Lowe fantasy baseball owners.

275 Updated Today:

1. Jason Varitek, Red Sox 1,090,102
2. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers 1,047,987
3. Joe Mauer, Twins 769,284

279
Yeah, I am pretty sure this start alone will cause me to lose this week.

274, 278 Ah. Gameday didn't mention that. "XXX grounded out sharply to Lowe", but no mention of it hitting him.

Thanks.

THe Buccos will be going for lucky #13 tomorrow. Congrats to Jim Tracy.

I really hate fan voting in all sports.

284
Democracy sucks.

Tampa bay's pitching staff is bad. Other than kazmir. Kazmir will always best random distribution. No one else on that staff will. Ergo, someone will always be at the top of the bell curve. Hendrickson wins this month's lottery. Peripherals, schmeriferals. Same as baez.

Braden Webb getting the webbing kicked out of him. Even Beltre got in on the action.

Who the heck is Braden. Let's try Brandon

288 Don't sweat it. You just got him confused with Brandon Looper is all.

Kent giving his best Shawn Green impersonation.

The second I click on Gamecast, Kent hits one out. If you'll excuse me, I'm going to close and reopen Gamecast seven or eight more times.

Kent with a home run of the Shawn Green variety.

His trade value may be going up, but if Colletti is orchestrating the deal I wouldn't expect more than a guy like Craig Biggio or Adam Kennedy. Or maybe a scrappy veteran like Tony Womack.

290- barely beat me!

18 yr old Steven Johnson pitching a good game down in Odgen. I really like him. The Odgen staff has a ton of potential this year.

I'm just gonna go ahead and assume Kemp was completely baffled in that AB.

I just realized that Colletti is helping to increase the probability that Jeff Kent never wins a WS ring.

Well done, sir.

296- like nate said, Kent is here until he dies. I can see Kent playing 3+ years (if he can stay healthy). I really don't want to have to wait that long until I see the Dodgers win a WS.

273 I guess he should be happy with Edwin's lackluster performance, Tiffany's poor pitching before he got hurt, a catcher who hit less than .200 in a hitter's AAA league and now apparently the greatest thing since sliced bread or did he fail to Seo's stock had dropped to mop-up status.

I know this is a dying argument here and I raise only to be heard again, there was nothing based on what those guys were doing at the time of the deals were made that they were going to be good major league players. Sure Jackson, Tiffany, and Navarro are all young and maybe one of them will make it but the odds are that they won't.

Who are Ricardo Rodriquez, Ben Diggens, Franklin Gutierrez and now Edwin Jackson, they are now former No. 1 prospects of the Dodgers since 2000. Only James Loney, Guzman and Chad Billingsley remain in the system.

I think fans and certain GMs often hold on to prospects because they have a sense of ownership and these players are not making the big money.

Colletti did give Kent 11.5 mils though.
Thats not a bad parting gift.

296
lol

Navarro already has 278ABs at the big league level as a 21/22 yr old catcher.

I dont think the odds are "long" that he'll make it.

Anyways, no one is opposed to trading anything. Its never what you trade away, its always what you get back thats important.

So far, Colletti hasnt gotten back anything but the DRays garbage.

Shawn Green pulls the Diamondbacks within one on a home run.

Where would the Twins be if they hadnt earlier in the season wasted time on Rondell White, Juan Castro, and Tony Batista?

I doubt they have enough time to catch the White Sox/Tigers, but they do have a bright future.

Couldn't sanchez, schmoll, tiffany, jackson, navarro gotten us a lowe/penny clone starting pitcher?

303

Twins have a ton of pitching coming up through the ranks but are really short in terms of quality bats. But they probably have the best pitching depth in the minors

Adding to 304:

Didn't loduca, mota, encarnacion get us penny and choi?

The train station here in town -- Union Station -- has a public shopping area with restaurants and stuff. It also has some nice spaces where events/fundraisers are held. We were having dinner there tonight, and my 15 month year old was wandering around close by, and then he zipped over to a table that had a bunch of nametags for some event on it. He grabbed a tag and proudly brought it over to us. I glanced at it as I was walking it back -- "Wendy Selig".

Probably a different Wendy Selig, though. Isn't Bud's daughter named "Probst-Selig."

The Twins version of Lance Carter is in.
I thought they sent him to the minors earlier?

298 -- Gutierrez was never a #1 prospect of the Dodgers. He was rated #3 when he was traded, and #3 is the highest he was ever rated. The book is not closed on him, and he is up with the Indians right now. But I agree with your point that not every young prospect is worth hanging on to. Dan Evans, the GM whose enemies -- like JoeyP (formerly OldBear) -- derided as inflexible about dealing prospects, traded away Ricardo Rodriguez, Ben Diggins, Victor Diaz and many Dodger minor leaguers, without any of those players coming back to haunt us, and I wasn't choked up about losing them to begin with. I think Navarro is going to go in the same category. Jackson I think will put things together, just not this year.

"There was obviously interest, deservedly so," Devil Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "I tip my hat to Ned. He made a bold move early."

translation: Keep on coming back please!

310

lol.
I agree with your translation.

310
Yeah, really. I have never heard a GM in baseball congratulate another after a trade haha.

310 It's a shame that falling over and laughing doesn't translate on to the written page.

Mauer Power! Mauer Power!

If you think Mark Hendrickson's 2006 performance is bound to regress and you think the same of Sele, don't you have to fairly assume Odalis ver. 2006 will improve?

(. . .and now I duck)

I can imagine how the today's deal came to fruition.

Devil Rays GM(S): Hello Ned. I really wanted to tell you how sorry I am about the last trade we made.
Ned: Huh?
DR: The trade really didn't work out for both sides. I feel really guilty about it.
Ned: That's just part of this business.
DR: Yea, but I want to make it up to you. I see that you need some help in the starting rotation. How about I trade you this lefty I have in my rotation. Even though he's our best pitcher I'm willing to make it up to you...
Ned: You'd really Mark Hendrickson? But he leads your staff in WHIP
DR: Ned, I was talking about....
Ned: Don't say another word, I'm interested.
DR: Well, I supposed [puts phone down and chuckles] I think we can work something out.
Ned: Alright, who are you interested in?
DR: Well, I'm trying to make up for that last trade. How about Jae Seo? You guys have demoted him to the bullpen so it doesn't look like you are very high on him.
Ned: It sounds like we have something here. But I really want a veteran catcher to back up Russell Martin. Would you mind swapping Toby Hall for Dioner Navarro.
DR: silence [covers phone with his hand] He wants to throw in Navarro too!
Ned: Are you still there?
DR: [cough cough] Yes I am...I got something in my throat. So you want really want to trade Navarro and Seo for Hendrickson and Hall.
Ned: Yes. Absolutely.
DR: [trying to contain his excitement] I think we have another deal Ned..
Ned: Nice doing business with you again.

I just realized that you can't spell Hendrickson without Erickson….creepy.

315 Yes (same with Seo)

I'm still trying to figure out how Canuck loves James Loney so much, but doesnt think much of Dionner Navarro.

That doesnt make much sense at all.

So who here lives close to Odgen Utah?

318

What about it doesn't make sense?

318 - In part, doesn't it have to do with defense?

That Navarro is 22, plays catcher, and has a .740 OPS with 258ABs in the big leagues.

James Loney, who doesnt hit for enough power to play his given position, and has done nothing so far either at the MLB level. It just doesnt make any logical sense. You have one guy, that even if you dont like him, has the numbers to back up that he's a reasonable option at his position. You have another guy, that even if you really like, doesnt have the numbers to back up his reasonable position. They both are about the same age.

How one guy can be discarded into the trash heap, while the other is esteemed so higly by Canuck (and he'll admit this), is baffling to me.

It'd just seem to me if you like Loney, that you have to like Navarro too. Its possible to not like either. Its also possible to like Navarro, and not Loney. But to like Loney, but not Navarro seems illogical.

But to like Loney, but not Navarro seems illogical.

Not to someone who values defense its not illogical.

319 -- D4P is moving there next week with his beer can collection.

Really, that has to be something that will gnaw at Minnesota, they are now 16-2 and remain 11.5 out of first and 9 games out of the wild card.

The D-Backs, if they lose today will be 3-18 and will be 3 games out of the first and 3.5 behind in the wild card.

re: hendrickson being "better on grass"

hendrickson's career ERA, WHIP, BAA on grass, according to yahoo: 4.95, 1.44, .296 in 51 games.

hendrickson's career ERA, WHIP, BAA on turf:
5.06, 1.43, .286 in 71 games.

oh yeah, it's that nasty astroturf all right. that's his problem.

[rolls eyes]

maybe the whole "better on grass" thing will improve his numbers even more.
Jeff Weaver's no longer a Dodger. He's going to have to find a new supplier.

324
...which numbers slightly fewer than 70,000.

Once again, this was a pointless trade, with the D'Rays getting the edge on age alone.

In the long run, I doubt the trade will make much of a differenct to either club.

I do not and did not expect the Dodgers to be serious play-off threats this year, next year, or the year after. This team is a long way from a Championship run.

That being said, I love watching the kids play and it dissapoints me that Ned made such a pointless move. What the heck is Hendrickson going to do for us?

R.

Steven Johnson after tonights game, has a 17:1 k:bb ratio in 10.1IP at Odgen this year. For an 18 yr old, that is HELLA promising.

Well, at least we didn't trade for Weaver, he threw up another stinker tonight - 2+ IP, 6 ER (possibly 7), 9 H, 1 K.

318, 321 -- Jon is right: if Loney's defense at first were as bad as Navarro's defense behind the plate, I wouldn't be an advocate for Loney, and the Dodgers wouldn't hold Loney in the esteem they do. And Navarro wasn't hitting .370 in Vegas before the trade either (though I admit that Navarro's lack of hitting right now shouldn't be held against him, given that he is coming back from so much time lost to injury).

Would anyone care to take a guess at who was the minor league catcher "equivalent" of Loney, if such a thing there be? Joe Mauer. High batting averages, great defense, rarely struck out, showed very little power. Mauer hit a total of 9 HR's in three in the minors. The big difference in their relative prospect status is accounted for by the fact that nobody really expects a catcher to hit for power, while some people really can't stand the idea of a first baseman not having a lot of power, no matter what other virtues he may boast.

Did I miss much, sorry I missed the game on Friday.

Well those scouts in Anaheim are not going to like what they see. 6 runs and 9 hits in 2 innings plus thus far for the other Weaver.

After I hit post, aside from noticing grammatical and spelling errors, I thought one thing...

Have the Dodgers EVER made a trade which brought them an impact player mid-season in the last 20 years? All we ever get are the John Tudor and Roberto Kelly's of the World.

Television for Tomorrow:
NBA Draft
Johan Santana killing the Dodgers
UFC Fight Night
South Park
Man Bites Dog

I am not getting up off the couch after I get back from class.

318, 321 -- Jon is right: if Loney's defense at first were as bad as Navarro's defense behind the plate, I wouldn't be an advocate for Loney, and the Dodgers wouldn't hold Loney in the esteem they do. And Navarro wasn't hitting .370 in Vegas before the trade either (though I admit that Navarro's lack of hitting right now shouldn't be held against him, given that he is coming back from so much time lost to injury).

Would anyone care to take a guess at who was the minor league catcher "equivalent" of Loney, if such a thing there be? Joe Mauer. High batting averages, great defense, rarely struck out, showed very little power. Mauer hit a total of 9 HR's in three in the minors. The big difference in their relative prospect status is accounted for by the fact that nobody really expects a catcher to hit for power, while some people really can't stand the idea of a first baseman not having a lot of power, no matter what other virtues he may boast.

That dope Hudler could turn a natural disaster into something positive, he just lauded Weaver for not having his head in a towel after his shellacking.

335

Who do you want for the Lakers?

332 Mauer and Loney? Wow, that is a bit of a stretch, with all the respect you deserve.

I think Adrian Gonzalez is a good equivalent, and if Loney makes it to the majors under his current profile...Mark Grace.

332 Not to mention Loney's body seems to allow him to put on more power in the future while Navarro's is already maxed out. I know that sounds like one of those stupid scout comments, but it's also the same comment they said about Alexis Rios coming up and look how he turned out. Not to say Loney will follow the same path, but he at least has the ability for physical growth.

I swear the A's are on MLB Extra Innings the least.

329

I do not and did not expect the Dodgers to be serious play-off threats this year, next year, or the year after. This team is a long way from a Championship run.

I agree with this year, but disagree with the rest, but if ned continues to give away our youngsters i might start agreeing with you about the next 2 years.

338 If I may interject, I would like Mitch K.'s out of the G.M. spot..... No matter who they pick, it will be a flop. He is a horrible talent evaluator.

I want James White, or Douby, or Farmar.

342 I am questionable about the next three years, because you cannot win on internal youth alone. You need some impact veterans.

As good as J.D. Drew is, he is not the type of veteran addition this team needs. We need a true power bat, high OPS guy, and a true Ace.

You cannot just put together some rag tag home grown team anymore.

I love the young guys, I just hope they get some help from Ned.

343
I agree.

I couldn't care less about losing Navarro and his 750 career OPS which will be substantially lower by the end of this season. What ticks me off is the fact we've made two trades with Tampa Bay and instead of coming away with Upton or D Young or Dukes or Huff or Baldelli or Wade we've gotten an overpaid bad set up man, an all-star pitching badly in AAA, a backup catcher, and a basketball player.

328-
...which numbers slightly fewer than 70,000.

Where I come from, that's called being a packrat.

i want james white too!

and I agree with Toycannon in 347. That is my basically my opinion.

Yeah, James White could jump over Chase Budinger, while Chase Budinger is jumping.

well one of the reasons why i want White is because I want a Laker in (and win) another NBA dunk contest. heh.

You guys would want some malcontents like Dukes or Uptown on the team? Imagine the social experiment that would become with Jeff Kent's sparkling "leadership".

Not that I like the cartoon, but wasn't one of the Dilbert books called "Don't Step in the Leadership"?

Based on the articles we keep seeing, that's what Kent's leadership reminds me of.

I am waiting for the Kemp v. Kent explosion......

345

I just hope they get some help from Ned.

That's my problem with the present and future of this team.
The only trade ned has made that i agree with is the trade for ethier, the rest of his trades have been garbage.
And on top of that, other than nomar who was a no-brainer, ned overdoes it with mediocre veteran free agents.
If saito was a free agent then include him with nomar, but wasn't he just a spring training invitee, anyways saito is good.

355Ned will not be able to get a quality player via the trade market with out giving up some youth. I think the free agent market will be the place, but the club already spent dollars on Drew and Furcal. Also, who is out there this year or next year, who can really help.

If we can keep Nomar and he keeps playing how he is playing and Kent keeps up one more year, our offense might be okay. Also the rookies need to keep up their production.

If all that falls into place, we are a #1 and a few relievers away.

That is a lot of ifs...

Also excuse me, English is not my first language and I think you can tell...

Canuck, calm down with the expectations for Loney. He does not have star potential like Mauer, he has never been nearly as productive as Mauer, and at the same age, Mauer was one of the better catchers in baseball. Loney doesn't have Mauer's plate discipline.

I want the Lakers to draft Kevin Pittsnogle. I think he'll be out of the league in a few years (if he ever makes it). :)

James White would be a bad pick. He's almost 24 years old. He's a great athlete, but his numbers really haven't been eye-popping considering his age. His defense is ok, but not great. His jumpshot is inconsistent and he's really skinny.

Rajon Rondo would be a great pick for the Lakers. He's the best defensive PG in the draft, is coming from a solid program in Kentucky, and has good quickness. He's a big time sleeper. I don't think the Lakers are smart enough to target him and I'm not sure if he would fall to them. I don't see them trading up either unless they part with Odom or Mihm (a possibility). Quincy Douby is another guy who would be a great pick for the Lakers. He's one of the best shooters in the draft. He's not a true PG, but the Lakers don't need one with Kobe being the primary ball handler.

356 No need for excuse me's. Nothing wrong with that writing.

357
James White is only that old because he transferred and had to sit out a year. White does not have to be a star for the Lakers, he just needs to be the right complimentary player. I think White is one of those guys that will be a better NBA player, like Richard Jefferson.

I don't think Rondo will be there near the Lakers. I like him a lot, but he is more suited to a transition team that runs a lot. He needs to improve his shooting, but I would be happy if he dropped to us.

You gentlemen seem well versed in the game of baseball, so I want to pose this question..

The Angel's Howie Kendrick, is a minor league hitting machine. Yet, having watched him play a little bit, something tells me he will not be the star many expect. One thing that worries me and most of you are aware of, is his ability to draw walks.

What do you guys think?

If he pans out, I am thinking, Tony Gwynn in terms of his offensive game, with a little more power.

If he pans out, I am thinking, Tony Gwynn in terms of his offensive game, with a little more power.

I basically see a Nomar Garciaparra clone in Kendrick.

357 -- Let me clarify what I was getting at in comaparing Mauer and Loney. I have never said that Loney will be a star. I have argued here and elsewhere that he will be a good major league player, and not garbage. Loney and Mauer, scouting wise, are the same "type" of player. The diffrence in position does make a big difference in how valuable they are each considered, and I am not saying that is wrong. But Loney and Mauer are alike in the exact respects that I mentioned: they are both high-average hitting, great defensive players who are very difficult to strike out and neither hits for much power. Those are four separate attributes each man shares and I would like somebody to tell me which one or more of those artributes I am wrong in saying applies to both Loney and Mauer.

360 To have 9 walks with 250 plate appearances suggest a player with little patience but he has always shown the ability to hit the ball. He takes deep counts because he strikes out about 16% of the time so when he hits the ball anywhere its a got a good chance to be a hit.

Will his plate coverage continue in the majors, that remains to be seen but this has been issue, not only for Kendrick but for the Angels and their hitting philosophy as a whole.

Garciaparra is an interesting example.

Kendrick draws less walks than Nomar did, when looking at both men's minor league statistics at similar stages.

I think some analysts are too excited with Howie. I believe he will be a solid player, but not a year in and year out all-star many envision.

Here, here to 347.

361 Aside of his first MLB season, Nomar has always kept his strikeouts under control, while he doesn't walk a lot, he did walk more in the minors and through his career, walks about 3 times for every 4 strikeouts.

Geez, Andrew and Nate went over there. Nice Aaron Small rip.

"Hopefully, we'll be able to keep shoring up the pitching, either at the beginning of the game or at the end of the game."

I guess Ned's happy with the current status of our middle relief.

But Loney and Mauer are alike in the exact respects that I mentioned: they are both high-average hitting, great defensive players who are very difficult to strike out and neither hits for much power.
Take out the defense and you could be talking about A.J. Pierzynski, a guy that Loney is much more likely to become like when it comes to offense. Adrian Gonzalez is probably the best comparison, and even he showed more home run power than Loney ever has. Loney would have to hit .320 to be a valuable because he doesn't walk very much.

What could we have gotten Kyle Lohse for? The last Fernando bobblehead in the stadium?

Ironic that the conversation should turn to Colletti icon AJ Pierzynski.

I'm trying to imagine the type of player(s) we'll get in return for Odalis. Upon thinking, I shudder.

368- so we need a closer and another starter?

Kuo and Greg Miller for Todd Jones (former all star, proven closer)

For starting pitching Ned has a bunch of options.
1. Sign Kirk Rueter out of retirement
2. Sign Shawn Estes (did he retire)
3. Sign Russ Ortiz (just for Bob)
4. Trade Elbert and Guzman for Livan Hernandez

371 -- You're kidding. After today, I think we're looking at least at Ervin Santana. We might get him and Kendrick.

If I may interject, I would like Mitch K.'s out of the G.M. spot.....

If there's a bright side to any of this, its that Kupchak is 1,000,000 times worse than Ned Colletti could ever be.

Colletti traded Navarro for garbage.
Kupchak traded Shaq for garbage.

THis puts today into perspective.

372 I think the Orioles picked Ortiz's carcass off the highway out of Phoenix. ;)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5954

373
After today, I think Ervin Johnson is more likely.

375- we could always trade a top prospect for him. Do you think they would accept Dewitt?

Rajon Rondo would be a great pick for the Lakers.

I agree.
The last time I wanted a guy to fall to the Lakers that bad was Tayshaun Prince. Of course he did, but then they picked Kareem Rush instead. Rondo would improve the team quite a bit at the PG and defensively.

I'd love to see the Lakers trade Odom/1st to a team in the top 5 and pick Brandon Roy also. I think Roy's the most ready NBA player in the draft. I'm honestly not sure when the Lakers will be championship caliber again bc all the star players are signing max extensions with their original teams.

I just hope the pick isnt of the athletic quality of Cook, Sasha, or Walton. But since Phil Kupchak is drafting, I'm not expecting much.

378- by the way I'm a Clippers fan. If the Lakers draft James White, the Clippers 2nd round pick may end up being a better player. The Lakers are very poorly run organization who have a history of draft junky 4 year college players. NBAdraft.net has the Lakers taking Mardy Collins, who looks like a fringe NBA player at best. Sounds exactly like the type of pick that the Lakers would make. From everything I've read though, they seem to be locked in on James White.

I'm honestly not sure when the Lakers will be championship caliber

And I think it's gonna be a long long time

378 Actually the Lakers acquired Rush in a draft day trade after the first round where they exchange some players and the rights to Rush and Jeffries. The Lakers actually drafted next to last that year while Detroit picked up Prince a few picks after Toronto selected Rush. Whether or not they could have asked Toronto to draft Prince we will never know but they would not have had a chance to draft Prince where they were picking.

379 When the Clips hang any banner up in Staples, then they can start talking about poorly run franchises. This will be the first non-lottery party for the Clippers in how many years.

382- I'm talking about since Jerry Buss left, you didn't need to go on the offensive...

LOL, make that Jerry West

And Elgin all of sudden became a genius, no seriously I like the Clips, I just don't get the added emphasis on how the Lakers are doing in comparison to the Clippers, this town is big enough for both and the Clippers have a chance to make this a legitimate two team city.

I think there is always some sort of hate/envy when you root for the second team in a city. If you are a Laker fan, the Clippers are a pleasant enough sort but I guess that attitude could come off as arrogance while if you are a Clipper fan, all those years with lottery picks and especially the past four/five years with the Lakers winning titles and getting all the publicity had to get to you.

So I guess, anytime a Clipper fan can hold something over the Lakers they will take that opportunity but I think it would be better if they just stayed positive about their team. But I understand the urge to talk trash at this time.

Calling the Lakers a "very poorly run organization" isn't trash-talking. Many Laker fans (including myself) agree with that assessment. In fact, all of my favorite teams (Lakers, Rams, Dodgers) are poorly run.

385- you took my comment too personally. D4P is exactly right in that I thought I was stating the obvious. The Dodgers are poorly run team too. The Clippers were too up until a few years ago (that's when they started drafting better players). It had nothing to do with Elgin Baylor either. He's the GM in name only. Mike Dunleavy is the GM/coach and he has turned around the way the franchise is run.

Mitch Kupchak is a poor GM. His trades have been bad, his drafts have been worse, and his free agent pickups have a lot to be desired. Some of this may be due to the fact that it doesn't look like he's as willing to spend money as he was in the past. The Lakers have the best player in basketball, but the way the team is currently constructed and way the organization has been run recently, I don't see a championship in the near future.

369 -- You say that offensively Loney is more likely to become like A.J. Pierzynski than Mauer. I'm curious, did you actually bother looking up Pierzynski's minor league record? I assume you pulled Pierzynski's name out of you know where, but it is actually fortuitous that you chose him, because he played in the Triple A PCL at exactly the same age that Loney is playing in that league now, making a statistical comparison very easy:

PCL, Age 22, A.J.: .259/.312/.316

PCL, Age 22, J-Lo: .371/.411/.516

So, yeah, apart from the 300 points difference in OPS, Loney offensively is sizing up to be the spitting image of Pierzynski.

Of course, you say that you prefer an Adrian Gonzalez comparison. Fortunately, Gonzalez also played in the PCL at age 22:

PCL, Age 22, Gonzo: .304/.364/.457

PCL, Age 22, Loney: .371/.411/.516

You can say that Loney, like Gonzalez, is a slick-fielding first baseman without a prototypical first baseman's power, but what separates the two is that Gonzalez does NOT have Loney's pure hitting ability, the ability to compensate for his lack of power with a batting average that is far above the norm.

Your final statement is the assertion that Loney would have to hit .320 in the majors to be valuable. Again, fortuitous. According to a Kevin Goldstein column at Baseball Prospectus about a month ago, a scout who watched Loney in Vegas identified Loney as a guy he thinks will hit .320 in the majors. So I guess I can mark you down now as member of the James Loney fan club.LOL

In fact, all of my favorite teams (Lakers, Rams, Dodgers) are poorly run.

I agree, although I think the Rams have been ran effectively the last 7-8 yrs. Its a long ways since the days of trading Eric Dickerson.

I'll always be a Laker fan, but I've got no qualms saying the organization has been lost since Jerry West left.

389
Mike Martz should have been fired a long time ago, no later than immediately following the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots.

The Lakers have the best player in basketball, but the way the team is currently constructed and way the organization has been run recently, I don't see a championship in the near future.

Thats true but the problem is the Lakers have drafted Shaq-centric role players (stand still shooters, passers), rather than guys Kobe can mesh with. Part of the problem is they probably thought Shaq would still be there, so drafting a Cook/Walton/Rush to spread the floor was seen as the right thing to do. Plus, those 3 are bad defensive players, but since the Lakers thought they'd still have the big fella back protecting the basket, their deficiencies wouldnt be exposed.

I agree the team had to build around Kobe, cuz he has more years left in him than Shaq. The problem was not having someone to smoothe over that final season. Someone that could resign Kobe, and at the same time make it clear to Shaq that 04-05 would be his last year in LA. Instead, Kupchak makes a panic trade and the Lakers are stuck paying 15.5 mils for Brian Grant to play for the Suns.

347. TC you are right on the money. Adding to it, even if people don't care we lost Jackson and Tiff, now we have lost Duaner for virtually nothing (and I do care about that.)

I guess I take exception when absolutes are used but then if we always qualified things, there would be no room for any discussion.

"Poorly run" must only be applied to some player personnel decisions because the Lakers have not suffered in ticket sales since the Shaq deal and their "value" remains as high as ever not that the Buss family would ever sell them.

As for the Dodgers, the McCourts must be the greatest salespeople because their product continues to draw fans at record numbers so if any backlash was going to be felt, it was not felt there.

Now do those fans care about a lot about what is written in forums like these, probably not, but since Josh R. obviously peruses this site, you can't say that this forum goes without notice.

So sorry if I took any comment too personally but sometimes I let my fingers speak before I can think it through.

371. I am prepared to see the season through with Odalis as a starter. He can't get any worse. We know he is capable of better. His carrer numbers say so. He should get better and with that contract we will not get any value for him so let's keep him and hope for the best.

394
I understand what you're saying, but I think it's inevitable that Ned will try to trade him. But you're right: his contract is a potential stumbling block. Maybe he'll just go the Choi/Ross route.

Your final statement is the assertion that Loney would have to hit .320 in the majors to be valuable. Again, fortuitous. According to a Kevin Goldstein column at Baseball Prospectus about a month ago, a scout who watched Loney in Vegas identified Loney as a guy he thinks will hit .320 in the majors. So I guess I can mark you down now as member of the James Loney fan club.LOL
If Loney consistently hits .320 in the majors (not counting his first 3 years in the majors), then I will be driving the James Loney bandwagon. :)

I don't hate Loney, I'm just not confident that he'll hit enough (or walk enough) to warrant being an everyday player in the majors. I am not one of those people who thinks you need to have huge power hitters at the corners, especially if you have power at other positions such as CF (with Kemp). But if you don't hit for power, you better be able to walk a lot or hit for very high average.

393- if you define success by monetary gains only then you would have to consider the Clippers to be one of the successful franchises in all of sports. Since moving to Staples Center, (I believe) the Clippers have been the most profittable team in the NBA. I'd much rather have a team that is winning championships, but making a smaller profit.

The Dodgers have great ticket sales, but I'm pretty sure that they are still losing money. McCourt's plan is probably to mix in a few high priced veterans (Drew, Furcal) with a bunch of a young cheap players and have a payroll in the $70-80 million range. This is when McCourt will really start raking in the dough, but the team also has to be winning.

If the Yankees wanted Hendrickson, why wouldn't they take an interest in Odalis? Likewise, the Mets.

I agree with LAT. Of the three misfit toys Perez, Tomko and Sele, Perez is the one Little should stay with. Perez's periodic demotions to the bullpen are motivational, I figure. Tomko can be a spot starter and long reliever. Sele can be a country squire, enjoying a lovely retirement.

We can trade Hendrickson to the Lakers . . .

Do we have any of the "minor leaguers we received in the Shawn Green trade" left? If so, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them be the PTBNL in the Hendrickson deal...

396 McCourt's plan is probably to mix in a few high priced veterans (Drew, Furcal) with a bunch of a young cheap players and have a payroll in the $70-80 million range. This is when McCourt will really start raking in the dough, but the team also has to be winning.

Here's something to worry about. McCourt might be watching the magical debuts of players like Martin, Ethier and especially Kemp, and figures it will always be that easy, that once a good prospect has matriculated from the minor leagues, he can step into a major league job at the major league minimum and help the team get into first place.

It's not that easy. The Dodgers are extremely fortunate that this particular round of young guys have all worked out at the same time. There are a lot of teams with crappy records who counted on highly touted AAA players to step right into the majors.

There usually aren't this many Rookie of the Year candidates in the entire league, nevermind one team. But McCourt probably doesn't understand that.

399 Both William Juarez and Danny Muegge are still around.

398- Hendrickson and Kenny Lofton for Smush Parker.

Smush is a very good athlete. He's quick and tall and could probably play CF. I think he may have deceptive power.

Hendrickson gives the Lakers another big stiff.

Kenny Lofton was a PG at Arizona and is probably a better pure PG than anyone else on the roster.

I just noticed: The Dodgers got $1 million from the Rays to offset the salaries of Hall and Hendrickson.

The Dodgers taking a million bucks from the Devil Rays. That's like stealing money from the blind man's tin cup.

396 Its not that I equate sucess with making money per se but when you come in and you the team continues to draw they must be doing something because it is now over a 3 year period.

While you would think that is the plan regarding the payroll, there still is no evidence on that front, with these deals the payroll is well over $100 MM and this is not a Florida situation where you will have so many rookies and young players on the team at one time. Sure its possible that 4-6 will make an impact but I don't think there will be a Dodger lineup of 5-6 guys from the system at one time.

2007 projected lineup
1B - Nomar Garciaparra(replaces Gagne as face of the team)
2B - Jeff Kent
SS - Raffy Furcal
3B - Andy LaRoche (as long as shoulder checks out)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Matt Kemp
RF - J.D. Drew
C - Russell Martin

The pitching staff will be in flux but I think you will see Lowe, Penny, Chad still in Blue and Broxton and Saito in the BP, after that, who knows.

Sad thing is that it will probably take a deal with one or two of the big six (though I'm sure Guzman would be the least missed) to get any pitching talent but I don't think that kind of deal will be made unless it is in the Willis category.

I don't think Nomar is a Dodger past this season, because of Loney. McCourt might want to make Nomar "the brand" but it'll cost him a lot, and require him to commit so much money that Loney will end up being traded, and I think McCourt will back off from taking such an expensive course when a cheaper option is available. I know that breaks only some hearts, but it's worth keeping in mind that Nomar is "injury prone."

The new face of the franchise slot could go to Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton or...Cesar Izturis.

Mark Hendrickson won't be the face of the franchise until you can find his face.

Burnett's an injury risk but that guy can flat deal when he's on.

I sort of wish the riff-raff (Lofton, Mueller, Tomko) could have bought Burnett. Sure its a risk, but rather risk a long term deal on a guy with talent, rather than just fill the roster with average players incapable of winning the big one.

Whats ironic, is that KLoft, Mueller, and Tomko have all spent time on the DL. Similar to Burnett.

405 Right now, Nomar is the most popular Dodger at least based on what I have seen at the Stadium and that started even before he started hitting.

And really how much more could he cost, with the incentives in his contract, he will make anywhere from 6 MM to 10 MM this year, I can see a raise to 8 for 1-2 years with smaller incentives. Will that mean Loney is done, maybe not, he is still young, just turned 22, so some confidence building in AAA is not a bad thing.

391 Don't take this the wrong way because I don't think that Kupchak is very good GM.

I don't think that Kupchak had the opportunity to tell Shaq that '04-'05 was going to be his last year in LaLa land. After the crap that Shaq pulled during the pre-season with Buss, I think his ticket was pretty much punched out of town.

I think that Buss pretty much wanted to keep Kobe and get rid of Shaq. When that kind of business happens (broadcasting a trade) you get a scenario when everyone else in the league knows that you have to trade a guy for pennies on the dollar.

Once again, this doesn't excuse the Lakers for passing on far better players (Tony Parker, Prince, etc) when they had the opportunity to. This isn't the Jerry West run Lakers anymore. That being said, the great Jerry missed a few times too.

Well, Kupchak didn't exactly get Andre Ethier in return. He had to make a trade, he had to make a somewhat disadvantageous trade, but he didn't have to make a bad trade.

Let's see next month what we think of Gagne. I'm optimistic he can play out the rest of the year from Nomar's birthday on, which means he'll come back in about 4 weeks but he'll stay. I'm not worried about his ability to dominate. How about an incentive loaded contract from about $2 million to $10 million if he pitches 75 innings? I will proudly fly a Canadian flag if he drops Scott Boras.

408 I second that emotion. I was thinking about Ethier when I made that post.

Trading in the MLB and the NBA are different beasts though (at least at the time of the Shaq trade). NBA trades had to be equal in terms of money.

Given that, the Dodgers might have had to take on Joe Kennedy and another crappy player instead of Ethier.

409 Phil Jackson made a comment last week on the Dan Patrick radio show where he agreed that the deal had to be made.

He also said that in the history of the league, the trades of Wilt, Kareem and Shaq, the team that trades them never gets equal return. All of the teams that traded them did get a championship or two before dealing them and each of teams that got the center won a title or more after the deal. Also, the Lakers were involved in all three deals.

An aside, if you have the Insider account, take a listen to that interview because it is very incisive to how the NBA works.

Phil said that the game has become more perimeter oriented and the 3-point line is more important than ever before.

He also said that the calls for physical play indicates that the league wants to have scorers have the opportunity to score.

Phil says that Mark Cuban may have hurt his team by his antics (he said there are no unbiased people, except hopefully our Supreme Court justices) so the refs could have been influenced by Cuban's rants.

He talked about how Riley was able to get his players to front Dirk without getting a foul called, he said the by the time series ended, the rules were changed and that Miami was able to get all the calls.

It's nice that JD Drew is healthy, but could he give Gagne some of his health? We could get by with Ethier and Kemp everyday, but not Danys Baez.

Speaking of Dodgers trades with Tampa Bay, does anyone know the PTBNL the Dodgers received to complete the E.Jackson/Tiffany for Baez/Carter deal?

Thanks

Phil's just jealous of Riles bc Pat got Shaq to play defense on the Pick/Roll, whereas Phil could never get him to do that.

I agree with most of his other points though. But implying Miami won bc of biased officiating I disagree with. Its particularly disingenious of him, as he coached the most protected player in league history (Jordan).

414 Ryder Mathias, a 24 year old catcher who is very good at getting hit by pitches, but almost nothing else.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Ryder-Mathias.shtml

Speaking of bias, does anyone know what ever happened to the guy who killed Len Bias' brother Jay? I've searched on yahoo and can't find anything.

417 A Prince George's County jury today convicted two men of charges they killed James Stanley (Jay) Bias 3d, the younger brother of the late University of Maryland basketball star Len Bias.

After more than four hours of deliberation, the jury convicted Jerry Tyler, 20, of Temple Hills, Md., of premeditated first-degree murder in Jay Bias's Dec. 4 shooting death outside a Hyattsville, Md., shopping center. Gerald Eiland, 25, of Washington was convicted of second-degree murder.

417 Published: May 1, 1991

408-

I think that Buss pretty much wanted to keep Kobe and get rid of Shaq. When that kind of business happens (broadcasting a trade) you get a scenario when everyone else in the league knows that you have to trade a guy for pennies on the dollar.

couldn't disagree more. The problem is the way the salary cap works is that it's IMPOSSIBLE to get equal value for a star player. Getting Brian Grant was the epitome of stupid since he's paid so much and still had a number of years left on his deal. What he should have done is taken Lamar, Butler, and a bunch of expiring contracts. That way at least we get two good players, and a TON of caproom the next season. NBA gm's don't seem to understand that. Instead they do what Isaiah did in NY by trading Davis for Rose....would you rather have rose next year, or 16 mill to spend?

415-

c'mon, the officiating was horrendous...actually, that's the reason I really don't even care about basketball anymore. The refs ruin EVERY game...not to mention I get sick of players flopping on the ground every four seconds.

418- thanks

406 You realize Burnett has made 4 starts this year right? I'm not sure Lofton or Tomko's 15 days on the DL equates to that amount of missed time.

Plus, while Burnett is signed for five years, we're only stuck with our current batch of "injury-prone" guys for a max of 2 years. I will not - nor never will advocate - a long-term deal for AJ Burnett. Have you seen his pitching motion? It hurts me just watching it.

c'mon, the officiating was horrendous...actually, that's the reason I really don't even care about basketball anymore.

The NBA is trying to clean up its game. They want to increase scoring, but the players still cant shoot. So they do the next best thing: Call Fouls.

Plus, while Burnett is signed for five years, we're only stuck with our current batch of "injury-prone" guys for a max of 2 years.

I'd rather have great injury prone players than average gamers.
Burnett's deal wouldnt have been a killer in 3-4 years bc not much money is tied up then. I guess I dont have a problem acquiring anyone that has great talent, even if they have injury concerns.

404

*2007 projected lineup
1B - Nomar Garciaparra(replaces Gagne as face of the team)
2B - Jeff Kent
SS - Raffy Furcal
3B - Andy LaRoche (as long as shoulder checks out)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Matt Kemp
RF - J.D. Drew
C - Russell Martin*

I think the same, and we add zito to the rotation, after that i don't know what to say.

Pet peeve, please ignore.

http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/fortuitous.html

To whom was that "pet peeve" addressed, Mr. Shimmin?

428 I know, but I'm not saying...

I will say that lately I've been drawing a great deal of enjoyment by reading some of the longer prospect-glorifying posts here with the inner monologue voice of Dwight K. Schrute.

So, Joe Mauer goes 100 for 100 against us and he's dating Miss USA?

http://tinyurl.com/fkd3u

I can't believe that word guy doesn't have gauntlet/gantlet.

BTW, Bob, yesterday I head Buster Olney give a short lecture about Cow v. Bull v. Steer. There is good in us all.

Buster Olney grew up on a dairy farm so he should know.

430. AND he's making up for Lowe's night on my fantasy team. :-)

I can't see the McCourt's spending on Nomar, and I am not sure that's a good idea, but maybe they plan on shopping Loney. I agree with the we should have kept Duaner sentiment (and signed Hochevar, all though I wouldn't have signed him either).

Does anyone know where infielders are supposed to play on 'turf? It looked like our guys weren't far enough back to me-- read they are older and slower to react. Also, it was slightly amusing to see all of them pretty much refusing to dive to stop a ball. I'm inclined to give them all a pass given their recent health histories.

Sort of related to 433, I thought Lowe did OK last night considering. There were some defensive lapses and the Dome clearly didn't help him. Unlike how I feel about Oh, Dallas, I actually liked what I saw out of Lowe until he got hit. I guess I can see some logic in the idea that Hendrickson might perform better outside of Tropicana.

By the way, 435 comments late, great post (and great title) Jon. It's really a very important point that you've been flogging, and you do it very gracefully and reasonably.

Thanks, Sam.