Boras' arguments for signing Manny to a $20 million plus deal are dwindling...

YEAH!!! First time I got the initial comment in on a post.

2

So close. Yet so far.

Reallocating Druw's salary in order to sign Trevor Hoffman just isnt right.

From last thread...

323. 68elcamino427
The home run stat from last season is not anomalous -
it's no more "fast" on the fastball.

Per Fangraphs:

Average Speed of Hoffman's Fastball
2005: 85.4
2006: 84.6
2007: 85.1
2008: 86.0

Hoffman's fastball last season was the fastest it's been in the last four years.

If there's anything to his decline (whether real or not) a better gauge might be the difference between his fastball and changeup:

2005: 11.4
2006: 11.2
2007: 11.3
2008: 11.5

Looks about the same to me. Just about the only thing I can see different from Hoffman's 2008 in terms of pitch selection was his increased use of the slider last year:

% of Pitches That Were Sliders
2005: 3.4%
2006: 5.6%
2007: 6.0%
2008: 9.7%

I'm not sure I would sign Hoffman, but I'm not totally opposed to it either. He's still an effective pitcher.

Among HRs given up by Hoffman, do we know which were on fastballs, sliders, changeups, etc.?

For some reason i thought the first post was from CanuckDodger...

Oops

There is no way to know how Saito is pitching these days before the Dodgers sign him? No such thing as try before you buy?

I confuse Cajun with Canuck often if I'm not being careful.

No such thing as try before you buy?

I'm pretty sure the player's union frowns upon such a thing. They prefer a "pay now, ask questions later" approach.

6
I found pitches for 6 of the 8 HR given up by Hoffman:

April 2
Fastball (Lance Berkman)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=280402125

April 23
Changeup (Bengie Molina)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=280423125

May 23
Fastball (Adam Dunn)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=280523125

June 24
Fastball (Brendan Harris)
Fastball (Brian Buscher)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=280624125

July 5
Fastball (Stephen Drew)
http://tinyurl.com/83g5a6

I searched game stories for the other 2 HR and couldn't find any mention of the pitch.

11
So I guess it's not really possible to determine whether or not he gave up more HRs last year because of throwing different pitches than in the past...

I don't buy this. 90% of people have already renewed in this economy, 3 days before the due date?

Would the last 2,000 season seats available average out to $30/game seats? I don't know.
I would think that they would. The median price might be far lower but the average price can spike pretty quickly with many season seats costing $90 and some costing $400. With Season seats generally being better than the others, I would guess that the $29.66 figure is for single game and not season tickets.

14
From the Team Marketing Report:

Average ticket price represents a weighted average of season ticket prices for general seating categories, determined by factoring the tickets in each price range as a percentage of the total number of seats in each venue. Premium seating (tickets that come with at least one added amenity or is classified by team as premium) are not included in the survey to calculate average ticket price. Luxury suites are also excluded from the survey. Season ticket pricing is used for any team that offers some or all tickets at lower prices for customers who buy season seats. Teams have say in what seats are considered general or premium

http://tinyurl.com/a4js4f (this is a PDF with 2008 data for each team)

Some Hoffman esoterica:

Career runs: 1 (1995)

Career hits: 5

Career doubles: 2

Career RBI: 5

The last time he appears to have batted was 2001.

16 Make that 4 hits. (BTW, his pitching numbers during his best years are absolutely remarkable.)

13

I just renewed yesterday

ESPN played the "LA Fans Leave Early" card in the first sentence of its Hoffman story:

Los Angeles Dodgers fans could have a new reason to stick around for the ninth inning

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3815497

I'd like to go on the record right now and say that if the Dodgers give Trevor Hoffman millions of dollars to pitch a baseball in 2009, I will not be happy. At all.

20
Molly, have you had any bad experiences from Hoffman while reporting, or is your ire more of the "Hoffman isn't worth the money" variety?

13 - First, many of the renewals came during the height of Manny fever, when the no-increase offer was first made.

Secondly, while the economy is bad, many of those who would renew still have enough money to afford it.

And if you don't renew, you lose your seat location for X number of years.

It just doesn't surprise me that out of the entire population of Los Angeles, 24,000 season tickets for the Dodgers will still get sold.

20

I think I won't be happy, but I am not sure yet. I need to see the total figure and to know if it will keep us from signing better or cheaper talent

13

To be fair, I reduced my number of tickets from 8 to 5. So, I renewed, but there are less of us coming to the games.

It's interesting to think about what a player is "worth" to a team. So Manny is worth, say, $5M in extra revenue. But, Casey Blake adds nearly $0 in extra revenue, so what's his value? You have to field a team and in the long run, it needs to be competitive if you're going to maintain fans (customers) and a business. And the team isn't going to be made up of equal players making equal money. So it's easy to see that a baseball team costs $40M to $120M to be competitive. But boy is it hard to see how you place a value of the components of something that only works when placed together. If you are in your car in freezing temperatures by the side of a road, how much is your engine worth? How much is the ignition worth? How much is your key worth? I think being a GM is more like being that driver than it is like being in the plant before the car is made. Because these players are worth nothing until placed in context and the context is different for each team. I think the answer is that it's probably impossible to do much more than guess what a player is worth to you, even in you could be sure what his performance would be. Sure, his cost is set by the (semi) open market but his value to your own team is a tough one. I guess that's why they do it backwards in a way that seems kinda stupid... we have $100M to spend (because that's what other competitive teams have spent). How can we make up a team that costs that much?

If the Dodgers need a closer that throws in the low 80's with a good changeup, I'll throw my hat into the mix and play for roughly 10x less than Hoffman. I have several friends that are Friar fans and they have already called me up and given me the Nelson "HA HA" laugh. This signing will be an absolute joke.

I really want Kershaw to start the home opener. Not sure how it'll play out, but that would be awesome.

26

I am willing to be the bullpen catcher for cheap.

15. Thanks. So TMR doesn't count premium seats but I bet the Dodgers accountants sure do!

I would much rather the Dodgers take a chance on Chad Cordero, frankly, than bring in Hoffman. Higher upside (although injury risk). I've also already said I don't think Hoffman is as done as some people here think. But the idea of him being the closer is laughable at this point.

This signing will be an absolute joke

You'd think the Dodgers were close to signing Todd Jones or Joe Borowski or something. Hoffman is still an effective pitcher.

Would I sign him? No.

Is his signing a bad thing? Not necessarily.

I think the most annoying thing about Ned's pursuit of Hoffman is Ned's annoying belief that (1) there is such a thing as a Closer™, who (2) does such a thing as Save™ games, and who (3) is needed by Championship Teams™.

30 Didn't Chad Cordero have a torn labrum?

It'll be interesting what Saito signs for. The Dodgers are basically using the money Saito was budgeted for if he wasn't non-tendered for Hoffman.

Today we have a few rumors from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus. The Braves "will likely sign Andruw Jones" if the Dodgers end up releasing him. Perrotto also believes the Braves are in the lead for Kenshin Kawakami.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/perrotto-on-and.html

I would rather have Kuo, Broxton, and McDonald share the "closing" role

The problem isn't Hoffman's effectiveness per se, it's that we can get pretty much the same effectiveness more cheaply out of a younger reliever without a big name, either someone like Cruz or Reyes, or maybe even someone in house. This is just Ned showing his infatuation with another PVL.

35

So, Druw gets his money and gets to go back to where he wants to be.

I think a 42yr old Hoffman is equilavlent to signing Jones/Borowski, especially when you consider that Hoffman would be moving from one of the best parks to pitch in, to DS.

Just seems like a waste of money.
Plus, it'll be really surreal to see Hoffman closing out games for the Dodgers. I dont think I want to see it just as a fan.

Be almost as surreal as Barry in LF.

28 Can you throw the ball back to the pitcher? Oh wait, nevermind, that doesn't matter in Nedworld.

So, Druw gets his money and gets to go back to where he wants to be

Yep. And the Boras/Jones victory over the Dodgers is complete.

39 Dodgers Stadium was an extreme pitchers park in 2008. Not to the extent Petco is, but its not a hitters paradise, or even neutral like it was for several years.

30
Cordero seems like more of an injury risk than Saito.

From MLB.com:

Cordero carries very high risk, but could deliver a nice reward to the team that signs him. He underwent surgery on July 8 to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, a significant procedure that can require 9-12 months of rehabilitation, but a source close to Cordero said he is on a course to be pitching off a mound in February and is aiming to be pitching competitively by Opening Day

I wouldn't expect anything out of Cordero until June at the earliest. If the Dodgers weren't willing to pay to wait for Saito, they probably won't do the same for Cordero.

I am willing to be the bullpen catcher for cheap.

You're going to cheat Tanyon Sturtze out of a job?

39 - Hoffman home-away splits last year

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=hoffmtr01&year=2008#locat-hmvis

Home: 29 2/3 IP, 28 H+W, 29 K, 7 HR, 4.25 ERA, .656 OPS, .208 BABIP

Away: 15 2/3 IP, 19 H+W, 19 K, 1 HR, 2.87 ERA, .658 OPS, .359 BABIP

Braves may bring to spring training, but I doubt he makes their team.

39
I think a 42yr old Hoffman is equilavlent to signing Jones/Borowski

Good thing we aren't signing him for 2010 then (when he's 42). :)

Boy, I sure don't want this to happen. Colletti up to his old tricks again - throwing good money after has-beens. Even if Hoffman is still somewhat effective, he's overpriced. I agree that the bullpen is the least of the team's worries, that Hoffman is likely to be about the 4th or 5th best arm in that bullpen, and that Colletti wants him for all the wrong reasons. Heck, even the MLB Hot Stove guys last night said that Hoffman needs to hang them up.

So I'm with wronghanded and Molly. Bad idea. GoBears not happy.

The only upside I can see is the one that Jon alluded to and that Bob Hendley mentioned near the end of the comments to the last post: That IF Torre insists that Hoffman is the 9th-inning save guy, that might optimize the use of the better pitchers. The Tigers did this a couple years ago, with the "closer" (Todd Jones)the worst of the three pitchers slotted for innings 7-8-9, and the better guys (I think it was Rodney and Zumaya) pitching the highest-leverage innings most of the time.

So, if Colletti's mistaken signing is followed by Torre making the correct usage decision for the wrong reasons (proven closers close), this might work out OK. Of course, for that to be true, the Dodgers would also have to get to the 9th inning with 3-run leads instead of 1-run leads. So they still would be better off spending that money on offense.

21-Nope. No bad personal experiences with Hoffman. It just feels like a sad nostalgia act. The Padres didn't bring him back because he's just not as good as he used to be. I'd rather give Broxton the ball in the ninth and spend that money on a starter or a hitter. Closers are overrated.

31 I believe you are my fellow DT San Diegan, right? You can't honestly feel confident with Hoffman coming into a tight game in the ninth. We've both probably watched enough games on channel 4 to see that the man has been done for at least 3 years. His K rate last year was an anomaly IMO. 34 Is another reason why I'm upset about this news, I would have rather rolled the dice with Saito.

Given our collective aversion to Proven Veterans, and given our collective willingness to embrace the youngsters, why isn't there more enthusiasm in here for giving Kuo an opportunity as a closer? Is it health related?

43 I guess that's true, if they wouldn't risk bringing Saito back they wouldn't bring a similar risk in Cordero. But I'd been reading about how he was much closer to ready than expected, and know what a good pitcher he is when healthy. But yeah, very unlikely the Dodgers would chance it.

Ah well... Anyway... what's new on the Manny front?

The Braves outfield is pretty bad. Jeff Francouer, and Gergor Blanco posted a 72 and 81 OPS+ respectively. Its not as if Andruw Jones has to beat out an outfield of Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, and Manny Rameriez.

Let's take a step back for a moment and wonder this: What if the Dodgers have enough in their budget to sign their targeted outfielder and targeted starting pitcher, in addition to Hoffman?

If signing Hoffman doesn't preclude the club from addressing it's other needs, does that change anyone's opinion of the signing?

Just wondering. I don't necessarily want Hoffman either, but I seem stuck in the bhsportsguy zone of defending something because I think the counter arguments are weak.

51 - Did anyone come out against Kuo? I just think Kuo hasn't been the thrust of the conversation.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/MLB_Didnt_Want_Romero_in_World_Series.html

49 - If closers are overrated why put Brox there? And this is what is going to happen unless they bring in someone (a PVL) that Ned and Torre are comfortable with. Pads are trying to unload everybody, including there best pitcher (Peavy) and one of ther few good everyday players (Giles). Getting ride of Hoffman is a money move. Its not like they have someone all that much better than him.

Did anyone come out against Kuo?

Technically, yes, but I don't think he's allowed to guo there, er, go there, anymore...

37

Cruz costs a first round pick..i don't think Hoffman costs a draft pick.

The current concept of closing is overrated. And I don't care much what role Broxton is in, as long as he's warming up and pitching on the same day. Torre had a bad habit of warming Broxton up, and then not using him due to a blown lead by another reliever, or the offense not taking the lead.

I don't think Hoffman was offered arbitration.

54 - I'm in the same boat as you. I look at the Dodger roster and see the bullpen as the least of their needs. They have several arms, even before they go through the round table of spring training invitees that always yields somebody. They don't need to spend big bucks on Hoffman. And if they do, he's not the Hoffman of old. I wouldn't do it.

But comparisons to Andruw Jones just don't fly.

54 If the signing doesn't hamper a Manny and Sheets pursuit, then I'll be less upset about it. But lets face it McCourt has been crying poor, he traded prospects for salary last season, deferred payment on a busted contract and still hasn't signed Manny or a starting pitcher. Other than that, I just hate Hoffman.

45
Those numbers are just plain weird...

A 4.25 ERA with a .208 BABIP at home and a 2.87 ERA with a .359 BABIP away. Just bizarre.

I'd pass on Hoffman. He's not worth what he wants, imo. Especially in today's world of 30 million dollar players vs. 50 youth ballparks.

It ain't a Dodger offseason without Ned Colletti lustily drooling after a PVL.

Hoffman may still be very effective. Great. But the millions that are going to be spent him could have instead been spent on Manny and a SP.

What makes this even more aggravating is that the Dodgers have proven in recent years that they're quite adept at finding hidden bullpen gems for next to nothing, like Saito, Beimel, Wade, Troncoso, etc.

What if the Dodgers have enough in their budget to sign their targeted outfielder and targeted starting pitcher, in addition to Hoffman?

I dont think they can make that determination at this time - bc they dont know what Manny or a Starting Pitcher will cost.

64 - Look at the homers. 7 out of 8 allowed at Petco.

45 Good lord, I can't figure out those splits at all, unless it can all be explained with "small sample size." Can it?

I think Hoffman is fine in the sense that bullpens are important, and a bullpen core of Wade, Kup, Brox, and Hoffman is pretty formidable.

That being said, I really want Stults to be on the team, and I really hope that J-Mac gets a look at the back end of the 'pen, because as much as I like him as a starter, I was really, really impressed by his relief work in the playoffs.

66 I doubt the Hoffman money would have anything to do with preventing a Manny/SP combo.

54 As long as we can still sign a bat and a SP, it could work out to be a decent move. It won't cost us a draft pick, and will probably save us a couple million in next year's arbitration with Broxton. Perhaps at the least, Hoffman could exert some sort of "Greg Maddux" effect on our younger pitchers. Over the last few years, SD did have a propensity to get a lot more out of their average relievers than expected and the SD Union Tribune often alluded to a "Hoffman effect" helping them out and making the whole bullpen better.

According to the always chatty "Sources" (dude is VERY plugged into the MLB loop), all this chatter about Manny Ramirez and the Hated Ones in negotiations is, well, poppycock. Balderdash.

http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/2009/01/manny-ramirez-t.html

72
I think it was much more of a Petco effect than a Hoffman effect, but point taken.

Any additional money spent can have detrimental effects to the Dodgers as the Santana deal showed.

The Dodgers didnt even want to offer Beimel arbitration bc they feared they may have to pay 4mils to him instead of 2mils.

Its the mid-level PVL salaries that can add up fast and prevent the team from pursuing better targets, or forcing them to deal prospects.

What if the Dodgers have enough in their budget to sign their targeted outfielder and targeted starting pitcher, in addition to Hoffman?

But we had enough money to give Andruw Jones $18 million a year, and then, all of a sudden, less than a year later, we're trading Carlos Santana to save $2 million.

71 - This Andruw arrangement really loosens up the payroll, the $12M saved potentially allowing for a SP and a Hoffman signing. I believe that there's always been a secret slush fund to sign Manny.

71 It could prevent a Manny/Good SP combo, and instead facilitate a Manny/Mediocre SP combo.

Trevor Hoffman is a past-his-prime PVL who may still be good, but may not be either. He has a recognizable name and his signing will cause a splash with the local media.

A bigger piece of Ned-bait, I've never seen.

77 Wonder if Manny would want to live in Malibu, the McCourts can always give up a mansion or two.

70 Why waste talent like that in the bullpen? Jimmy Mac's arsenal of pitches is better suited to starting, imo.

54
I am not much for signing a "winner" just because he happened to be on a good team a few times. I also think that the Dodgers stink at signing veteran leaders (see Gonzalez, Luis).

However, having Kuo, Broxton, McDonald, Stults, Wade, etc. in the bullpen with no decent veteran guys out there could be a bad idea. Hoffman may not be the answer, but the effect of a knowledgable veteran in the clubhouse who is a decent guy can sometimes be understated. Almost every young pitcher who ever came in contact with Greg Maddux raves about the experience.

I am not convinced that Hoffman is the answer to this supposed dilemma, but confidence among a group of youths is a funny and fragile thing. Someone like Hoffman on a one year deal, provided it does not screw around with any other signings could be a very good thing after Broxton and Wade have a couple of bad games in a row sometime in August.

51 - it's not an aversion to Proven Veterans (Manny is a Proven Veteran), it's an aversion to Proven Veteran Leaders which are usually players who have been around a long time but aren't (relatively speaking) very good. As for Kuo, I think there's more than a few of us around here that are hoping against hope that Kuo ends up being Starter #5...

Let us dream: Billingsly, Kershaw, Kuroda, McDonald, Kuo.

C'est là qu'il passe ses nuits, mon grand ami Hoffmann.

Cette ardente flamme qui d'Hoffmann jadis embrasa les sens!

[sings soprano]

Kavula Industries, LLC is officially tabling its position on the potential Hoffman signing.

If it occurs, and does not stand in the way of a quality SP & LF signing, Kavula Industries will rate the signing as a positive.

If, say, no left fielder is signed, and the reaction of the front office is something like, "Sure, we didn't get Manny, but hey look everybody we're playing Hell's Bells," then Kavula Industries will take a dim view.

This comment contains forward-looking statements and should not be reviewed by anyone or his financial advisors.

Broxton, Stults, and Kuo are veterans. Broxton is the longest tenured Dodger, and Stults and Kuo are closer to 30 than they are to 20. Having veteran leadership is overblown, I would much rather have guys who know they can pitch.

If Hoffman can teach Kershaw how to effectively use a changeup, I'm all for his signing.

Just imagine the arm action that looks like 96 MPH but comes out as 83. Unstoppable.

71 How does anyone know what it would or wouldn't do? No one has a clue as to what our budget is.

This Andruw deal, to me, says we're trying to scrape up every dollar we can get right now.

And If we're scraping up money, I'd rather not throw 7-8 million at Hoffman.

I just read that Hoffman has three young boys. I think this thing has Colletti slam dunk written all over it. At this point, I'll be surprised if he doesn't sign with us. And yes, the veteran presence in the bullpen will be much written about. We're likely to have a very young group.

What do folks think about Reyes? The ESPN article mentions that an offer was made Tuesday night for Reyes, as well as Hoffman.

Personally, I'd take Reyes over Hoffman. We'd still be bringing in a veteran arm to the pen, but we could still close by committee.

To see Hoffy in a Dodger uniform would make me sick. I just see it as revenge for Steve Garvey. Ultimately its good karma for the Dodgers. If they blow money on Jones, Pierre, and Schmidt, then what is 4-5 mil on Hoffman to help an iffy pen if you are supposed to be a contending team.

From a nostalgia standpoint, I dont want Hoffman playing anywhere else, but his value to us is not worth what he wants because an old closer is not of real value to us, even if an old Brian Giles supposedly is, which I dont get. He has more value to the Dodgers. I just dont get why we continue to do nothing to improve our team.

Can you see Hoffman closing out the final LCS or World Series game for the Dodgers. Its kind of like us Kings fans watching Luc Robitaille hoist the Stanley Cup in Detroit. Mixed feelings.

More on that "Manny to SF = poppycock" chatter, from TSN's Gerry Fraley:

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=504461

>>This is not to suggest that Boras planted the Ramirez-to-San Francisco item with a compliant media lackey to help his negotiating position. But at the very least, the timing was odd.

The Dodgers are the only team known to have made an offer to Ramirez. With that offer off the table, the Dodgers began to consider other hitters, such as Dunn. A couple weeks earlier, Angels general manager Tony Reagins changed the dynamics of the Manny sweepstakes by announcing his club would not pursue the outfielder.

So, Ramirez stands on the outside, waiting for attention that is not coming.

Suddenly, the Giants reportedly crash into the picture.

If form had held, the next step would have been the Dodgers leaping into action, repenting for their ways and making a bigger offer that would enable them to bring back Ramirez.

Not this time.<<

83 Fed to Yahoo! Babel Fish:

It spends its nights, my large friend Hoffmann. This burning flame which d' Hoffmann formerly set ablaze the directions.

89 - I'd take Jose Reyes but the Bums already have a shortstop.

What? Oh, you mean Denny Reyes? He's still in baseball?

89
Haven't said it, but you have my favorite name on the site :)

90 The odds are more likely he'll be blowing a save in September than clinching in October, but it's possible and I see your point. It's like when we saw Orel Hershiser in a Giants uniform, or, yes Garvey... Does. Not. Compute. {tilt}

I can't imagine that Broxton is happy with this Hoffman news. I'm sure he thought he was in line to be the #1 closer with Saito gone. So Ned would be getting a PVL who's not only expensive and old, but blocks one of our young stars.

At this point, I'll be stunned if this signing doesn't happen.

95 - I'm sorry, Orel Hershiser never played for the Giants and Steve Garvey never played for the Padres. Nor did Cey play for the Cubs.

93 Thanks :)

94 Believe it or not, Reyes is only 31. Seems like so long ago that we traded him, but he got his start with us at age 21.

96 Isn't "blocking" a term used when a guy is prevented from playing? Brox will still pitch his one inning.

92 Heh heh. Google translate is a little more accurate. But it's from the libretto for Tales of Hoffman, the classic opera, also made into a Michael Powell film, about a veteran relief pitcher and his many romances in Nuremberg.

Reyes:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3686

90 Iffy bullpen? Learn your enemy's strengths.

99 Right, as Jon said above, Broxton's role will be no less important.

86 I'd like to see Hoffman teach that changeup to Broxton

90 That's the thing, our pen was in no way shape or form "iffy" by any stretch of the imagination. It was actually quite successful, and as Disabled List pointed out, we have had some success plucking guys off the scrap heap.

Who knows, though. Maybe Hoffman signs on and magically starts throwing 94 like Chan Ho.

103 I'm not sure Broxton will feel that way about it.

Broxton's agent wo uld be more pissed off than Broxton would.

63.
Hate is a strong word..for instance: I hate Barry Bonds.

I just merely 'dislike' Hoffman. Although reading all the dialogue here has tilted me a bit toward being ok with the signing as long as Hoffman has a Maddux-esque role as teacher.

100 I saw Tales of Hoffmann in Vienna in the standing room only area (price of admission: three euro!).

From the very beginning, when he sings of the dwarf Kleinzach, I was enchanted.

Tales of Hoffmann is my favorite opera.

Anytime you are compromising potential gain to a professional athlete, you can assume that you're pissing him off. It's not like Broxton has made a ton of money yet in his career.

8 million for a bullpen teacher, huh?

I guess that's better than paying a non-player 4 million to teach our clubhouse how to get along.

108 Dude, I grew up in SD county surrounded by annoying Padre fans that did nothing but talk trash about our Dodgers, I HATE Hoffman even more than Bonds.

111 8 Million? Huh?

re 19
Besides the laziness of playing the "LA fans leave early" card, anybody that thinks Hoffman is going to keep butts in the seats is delusional.

People want excitement from their closer. The only excitement Hoffman will give us is the kind generated from allowing a constant stream of baserunners in the 9th inning. Admittedly, we have been lucky in the last few years, with the buzz that Gagne (juiced up or not he provided the biggest sense of anticipation I have ever experienced at a baseball game) and Saito generated.

Simply having a good entry song isn't going to make us magically forget that our "closer" is tossing batting practice junk.

109
See people use the double N for that, but for my name, no!

112
One of my wishes is for Ryan Leaf to somehow improbably come out of retirement and lead the Raiders to the Super Bowl. The double gut punch for San Diego fans would be something to savor.

According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Dodgers made an offer to free agent lefty Dennys Reyes. He says they also want a right-handed setup man - Guillermo Mota or Juan Cruz are possibilities (Cruz would cost a draft pick).

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3815497

114 - Who are these baserunners you refer to? His WHIP has been around 1.00 the last 4 years. He also struck out over 1 per inning last year. He may throw "junk", but it still appears to be rather effective.

115 Perhaps you just need to commission an opera to be written about you. "Tales of Timmermann!" It could take place in Cleveland. Or maybe St. Louis, among the best fans in baseball.

Too bad Offenbach is dead. John Adams is available, though.

113 He rejected and publicly whined about a 4 million dollar offer. And I believe Eric pointed out he was worth 7.5-8.5 upthread. Isn't that about how much he's looking for/worth?

114
The only excitement Hoffman will give us is the kind generated from allowing a constant stream of baserunners in the 9th inning

Trevor Hoffman, 2008
IP: 45.1
Baserunners: 47

116 Thats classic...c'mon Ryan you can do it.

the Dodgers made an offer to free agent lefty Dennys Reyes

I am opposed to Dodger relievers whose first names start "D-vowel-n" and end in "nys".

120 - I saw somewhere it was around $4.5M or so. Probably just speculation, but I don't think it was significantly more than SD's offer. It seems to be personal against SD now. Milwaukee will probably offer more, as they have to buy him out of Southern California.

123 The name does make me hungry for a Lumberjack Slam though...

123
Only Rhys Darby saves the whole "name that ends in YS" group from complete scorn.

120
That was before Rodriguez and Fuentes signed for not too much more than that per year and are more than 10 years younger.

I think that $5M will be the figure that Ned goes for.

127
Stated poorly: What I meant was that his perceived value may be in the $8M range, but his actual contract will be much lower IMO.

Who would have thought that none of the Bradley/Ibanez/Burrell triumverate would get more than $11M annually?

I'm at a PBS press session dedicated to Ian McKellen talking for an hour on theater and King Lear in particular. He's mesmerizing.

128 - I'm really interested to see what Adam Dunn ends up with. He brings the best package of age, health, and performance to the table of any of the those OF/DH types. I would've assumed going into the offseason that someone would fork out a 4/$50M or 5/$60M deal for him. Looks like only the Nationals may go to that extent now, overpaying to lure someone to play in DC.

129
Can you ask Magneto his opinion of a potential Trevor Hoffman signing so we can settle this thing?

118 That makes him sound like Harris from Major League. When the umpires are watching him real close he just rubs a little jalapeno up his nose!

re 118 and 121
The statistics back you up, but I am going to continue on my somewhat irrational campaign against Hoffman. I think if you Babel translate Hoffman back and forth from Swahili a few times, it ends up spelling Jeff Shaw (whose WHIP was also pretty solid but that doesn't prevent me from trying to purge all memory of him as a Dodger closer).

131 I believe Gandalf follows baseball more closely than Magneto so maybe the wizards opinion would be more informed. Plus Magneto is a bad guy.

129 Is he going to draw you a graph of his acting process, of his method?

It would be something like this: Sir Ian, Sir Ian, Sir Ian, action, wizard "You shall not pass!", cut. Sir Ian, Sir Ian, Sir Ian.

115. Bob, do you get annoyed when people mis-spell your name and or pronounce it wrong? Or do you just politely correct them, even if it is over and over again? It's a tough spelling with that extra n.
vr, Xei

129 Admiring from afar, I consider Sir Ian to be one of the coolest cats on the planet.

What did Chan Ho sign for? Wouldn't that have been a good idea for us to do for him as a 5th starter?

I am prepared to be corrected.

136
People usually don't mispronounce my name. I really only get irritated about it when they copy it down wrong after they see it in print.

For example, I will email someone and my name will be in the signature. Then they will reply and leave the extra N off.

When I've gone to Germany, no one has ever asked me how to spell my name there. They just write it down. And it's never been misspelled when I've gone to Japan, which I assume is because people there wouldn't know how to misspell it.

Magneto is probably a Shawn Green fan.

136 - I think the last "n" is silent, no?

141
No: the second to the last "n" is silent.

If Ned signs Hoffmann, Reyes, and Mota or Cruz, is it possible that they've decided to go with McDonald and Elbert or Troncoso in the rotation rather than Randy Wolf?

The Hoffman Institute, which is obviously where one goes to undergo the world famous Hoffman Process, recommends packing the following items for your healing retreat:

Clothing: comfortable, casual, loose; enough for 9 days (no washer/dryer); some exercise clothing; one outfit for a casual festive occasion; jackets/sweaters for evening. Alarm clock. Warm clothes, an umbrella and rubber-soled shoes as the season dictates.

143 Yep, entirely possible, actually.
Though I still smell one more veteran SP signing before all is said and done.

Though we do have Vargas waiting in the wings!

Now there's a clip from Ken Burns' upcoming National Parks doc that talks all about bison.

146 Gandalf and Matt Kemp--quite a day!

143 They might be loading up on relievers because Elbert & Troncoso could have big upside in the rotation later on and need to be stretched out in AA/AAA.

138 Park signed for $2.5 Million with another $2.5 million in possible incentives.

146 It's just Doris Kearns Goodwin talking about bison, though, the bison they had in NY before they moved west.

80 - excellent use of the word "arsenal"

135 - genius moment, maybe only rivaled by Patrick Stewart's upcoming movie.

142
The T, I, second M, E, and R are all silent, but the first M is pronounced as "TIM" and the final "MANN" is pronounced as "MERMAN"

150
Every day a young Doris Kearns would hurry from school to tell her father that the bison had moved further east on Long Island. But it turns out that her father already worked in bison control for the county of Nassau and was just humoring her.

could the Ds be loading up on RP because the Pads want young pitching in return for Pevy?

145 - I think Vargas may have to be counted on from day one if no one else is signed. As 148 notes, Elbert and Troncoso might not be rotation-ready on Opening Day. Schmidt won't be, I don't think.

Right now, I predict an OD rotation of: Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Vargas, McDonald, with Stults as the 6th.

Over/under on Kershaw's innings next season - 150?

Count the Diamondbacks among teams interested in Chad Cordero.

http://tinyurl.com/a55zuc

I found this note interesting:

As is often the case with guys like this, we'll have to see if the club's policy against performance bonuses will prove to be a hurdle in negotiations

As far as I can tell, the only D-Back with a performance bonus in his contract is Brandon Webb, whose 2010 buyout increased by $500k for each Top 5 CYA finish from 2006-2009. It probably won't increase his overall payout though, since his $8.5m 2010 option is certain to be exercised.

155 He threw almost 170 last year, so I'd expect a little over that (185-190).

155 157 Yeah, doesn't seem a need to skip Kershaw's starts in 2009 unless Kershaw seems physically tired.

The thought of Vargas in our starting rotation makes me ill

159 Vargas is long relief material.

Vargas is comic relief material.

Vargas may not be minor league relief material

161

Circus Vargas?

163
Nice. BTW: I've been wondering about circuses lately. IIRC, when I was a kid, my town was visited annually by no fewer than 3 different circi (Vargas, Ringling Brothers, and Barnum & Bailey). I somehow always knew when the circus was coming to town.

But as an adult, I never see any advertisements for the circus, and never actually see one set up or anything.

Did they go out of favor, or am I just out of the loop?

They've been replaced by Cirque du Soleil!

Which is, Patton Oswalt says, "catnip for old people!"

164
The French Canadians have taken over the circus industry.

I say: let them have it.

every so often I catch a commercial for a circus coming to town. usually ringling bros, who merged with barnum & bailey to become "Ringling Brothers, Barnum & Bailey". Circus Vargas (circus vargas, circus vargas) I don't remember seeing anything for in a very long time.

159 When you look at Vargas' K rate and BB rate it doesn't look too bad. But than when you glance at his HR rate and realize he gives up 34.4 HR per 200 IP, that's the problem.

I wonder if Vargas could be a leage average SP at Dodger stadium. The last 3 years he K's 6.64 per 9 IP and BB+HBP-IBB 3.3 per 9 IP. Reduce his 1.54 HR per 9 IP maybe to 1.1 and his FIP ERA is about 4.35.

164

Circuses have come under fire for animal cruelty over the years, and they aren't as exciting as video/computer games.

When I think about those bears I saw as a boy, chained to scooters, riding in a circle, it does seem a bit unnatural.

I think Ringling Bros/Barnum and Bailey is still around, though, like the Globetrotters.

168 Assuming DS kills some of his HR's given up.

http://www.ringling.com/TourSchedule.aspx

http://www.circusvargas.org/showtimesN.html

I heard Hoffman on ESPN Radio a few years ago, some fairly recent season wherein the Dodgers were in a playoff race and the Padres weren't, and he said he was openly rooting for the other team because "I just really hate the Dodgers."

Here's hoping he signs with the Brewers, for a number of reasons.

170 - If we're hoping DS cuts down his homers, I probably shouldn't put any hope in him at all then.

Signing Hoffman is not going to change what the Dodgers do in terms of Manny or a starting pitcher.

I guess I am one of the few here who don't buy into what players say about hating this team or that team, in the end they play for whomever is paying them and they don't really get into the rivalry as much as fans do.

I believe Doris Kearns Goodwin is another thing that Bob and Greg Brock wholeheartily agree on.

Derrick (Tulsa, OK): Can you rank the 5 NL West farm systems?

*SportsNation Jim Callis : Sure. From best to worst: Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres. The Giants have an elite system, while all the rest are in the 20-30 range for me.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=24443

PBS announced a Circus docuseries for 2010. No joke, but no word if Claudio is in on it.

Unfortunately, the Los Angeles Dodgers will enter the 2009 regular season with a pitiful pitching-staff. Although Clayton Kershaw may have been compared to Sandy Koufax, he's truly a mediocre pitcher who needs to focus on his control. He's not yet ready to lead a Major League Baseball organization through the regular season.

http://www.crookedpitch.com/439/the-fantasy-five-dodger-questions-with-marc-hershberg/

178 Clayton Kershaw is freaking 21. TWENTY-ONE!

M. Bison looks so lame in the new Street Fighter movie.

Should have just used Kemp.

178 For fantasy purposes, outside of Chad and perhaps in a later round Kuroda, I could see their point.

However, as we know, life does not always conform with fantasy. Or vice versa.

Is it too late to talk Al Davis and the Raiders?

Al Davis missed the last Raiders game in Tampa, presumably due to his failing bones. he is, after all, 958 years old

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8996778/Davis-misses-his-first-Raiders-game-since-%2779-

--but listen to this... What I didn't know is that Davis had a Chick Hearn streak going... observe:

Herrera said he believes the only time Davis ever missed a game was when his wife, Carole, was hospitalized in 1979 after a heart attack. Davis moved into the hospital for more than two weeks until she came out of a coma and recovered.

Other than that, Davis is not believed to have missed a Raiders game since joining the organization in 1963.

He's not kidding when he says "Commitment to Excellence". Of course, now, Davis is simply committed.

What is CrookedPitch.com? A place wherein junior high students get school credit for making a web site and posting stuff on it?

Whatever.

181 They lost me at Kershaw is "a truly mediocre pitcher," fantasy or no, my Dodgers bias or no, that's utter nonsense.

183 Probably similar to some Northern California-based dvd rental website trying to horn in on Netflix.

:)

180

How does Chun-Li look?

184 My comment was based on fantasy value not their "analysis."

"This idear that Kershaw is a mediocre player is uttah nohnsense!"

-- forgive me, fellas...

186
Pretty much just showed her as a ninja or in street clothes flipping around.

Kershaw ERA-plussed 100 last year.

186
No original Chun Li clothing or cool moves in preview. Everyone in the preview just wore regular clothes and fought in them.

189

Wait, the movie is called "The Legend of Chun Li"? I still think it would work better as an adult film.

And are there any soundbites of the actress saying "Spinning Star Kick!" and "Ya-ta!"?

Or an adult anime you could find at GreenCine.com : )

193
No, nothing cool. M. Bison just fits in his suit and looks absolutely nothing like M. Bison.

Still can't be worse than the Dragonball movie though.

*fights

I always liked E-Honda. He had really quick hands.

194

Only if they have old titles starring Lynn Minmay.

Still perplexed on why people are so against Hoffman on a 1 year, 4-5 million dollar deal. Being old does not make you not good (see Randy Johnson). Hoffman is projected to be much more valuable than Dennys Reyes, and Juan Cruz will probably get a multiyear deal and cost a first round pick. Our bullpen was awesome last year but we've lost Saito, Beimel, Park, and Proctor and replaced them with Vargas. Elbert is projected to be near replacement level next year, and McDonald will likely be a starter for much of the year.

Forget the name, Hoffman had a 9.9 K/G ratio last year, he is still effective. Would signing him be some great thing, no. Does signing him make our team better at low risk/cost, yes. 5 million is not overpaying him and keeps Broxton's arb numbers down, while adding a leader in the bullpen if you value that. I just don't see the rational arguement against getting him on a cheap one year deal unless it keeps us from getting Manny or a SP.

199
HELLS BELLS!!! THAT'S WHY!!!

185 Tee hee. Except we generally know what we're talking about when it comes to film. :-P And we have hentai!

Ah, Street Fighter Thoughts. My arcade stick is supposed to arrive today. So excited.

198
I remember when Robotech was on PBS.

198 (wondering how I can gently break the news to Icaros that Robotech isn't, uh, real.)

200 Still trying to justify spending some money to go to Galen Center and watch the game on Sunday. What do you think?

204

Lynn Minmay was my second cartoon character crush. First was Penny from Inspector Gadget.

205
I vote yes.

205
What the heck is up with a 7:30pm Sunday start?

I think my first crush ever was Jem the cartoon character.

208
Presumably the Lakers aren't playing Sunday night.

Because Hoffman is a ballplayer and Ned likes ballplayers.

I'm not married to the idea of Broxton as a closer. But like so many others have said, I'd rather give the ball to Broxton/Kuo/McDonald, or whoever else matches up well in a specific situation than pay millions of dollars to an over-the-hill pitcher who used to be a dominant closer.

Anyone who has ever played fantasy baseball knows closers are made, not born. Our throwing this kind of money at Hoffman when we've been reluctant to loosen the purse strings on other free agents (lately) is confusing. If we sign Hoffman for anywhere near the amount the Rays signed Burrell I will cry.

203 Surest way to troll a Macross fan is to constantly refer the series to Robotech. =P

212

Does that mean I have to refer to Voltron as Lionbot?

212
Never saw the original series.

When my friend and I got into anime we just wanted to see the most violent stuff possible.

213 There isn't the same sense of fandom with Voltron.

211 Well he still saved about 90% of the games which is about par for the course. And the Dodgers allotment of payroll to their bullpen is around the bottom in all of baseball (the total amountwill probably be less than 10% of their overall payroll and certainly less than what top closers make.)

Managers and GMs like closers because it makes life much easier. The Red Sox tried to go with a committee when Theo took over and partly because of managerial usage (Grady) but somewhat due to the players available (Theo), it did not work. Then they got Foulke and later Pappelton (sp.) to fill that closer role.

Also Brian Fuentes signed for little more than Burrell makes and I can't see the Dodgers paying that much to Hoffman.

Finally, I think for whatever reason, managers and GMs view a closer more important than a player like Pat Burrell.

208 They wanted to allow for campus celebration of the football national title.

Seriously, probably more to do with TV time slots and that the women's team plays at Pauley earlier that day.

managers and GMs view a closer more important than a player like Pat Burrell.

Dodgers need to find a GM/manager that doesnt think like that then.

179 actually he is FREAKIN 20 years old (assuming no birth certificate tampering has taken place).

I am surprised Bob didn't catch that.

I gave the Dodgers some credit for letting Saito (5mils) & Beimel (4mils possible) go, thinking they'd apply that $9mils towards something useful (like a Pat Burrell, Abreu, etc).

But if they throw most of it for 1yr of Trevor Hoffman, I have to question what they are thinking.

Would there be a worse way to spend $6mils, than on an old closer?

Martin/Ethier/Broxton/Repko have until 1/15 to submit their arbitration request. How long until that number is revealed to the public?

219 Find one who does first.

Really, I'm serious here, its not as if the Dodgers do anything really that different in terms of player personnel than the vast majority of teams. Even teams that have so-called advanced thinking still operate with this mentality otherwise you would see teams use their bullpen on the basis of the situation rather than the inning that pitcher is being used in.

My point about Burrell is rather flip, there is no doubt that an everyday player can affect more games than a pitcher who may pitch in 45% of the games. But in the last 25 years (thanks Tony LaRussa), there is no doubt that a manager's best friend is the guy who pitches the 9th inning.

It will take someone with a lot of guts and vision to change that but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

222 Well, it really never has to be released and they can certainly try to settle before that date.

I just watched the first half of "Man on Wire" during my lunch break. Holy Cow it is interesting!

Martin/Ethier/Broxton/Repko

They could reasonably ask for: 6M, 4M, 2.5M, .75M

I think they'll settle for roughly 80% of those figures.

209 The voice of Jem is my cousin:)

225 Isn't it!

227 Your Cousin is in Luna? Sweet!

"Man On Wire" was amazing. Even though you know how it ends, it's still riveting as well as emotionally inspirational.

229 It's funny because I've never actually listened to her music, I'm assuming they are good?

Both offers from the Dodgers and Brewers are for one year with a club option, and both exceed $4MM. Hoffman's agent (Rick Thurman) expects to have a deal within 48 hours. A requirement of Hoffman signing is that he is the closer

230

Talk about a charismatic guy to have for a documentary

232

If our offer is close to the Brewers, than he will be coming our way. It will be interesting to watch him come out to close a game in SD

231 It and it's predecessor (G-500, which she was not in) were some pretty great/influential Indie Pop. Haven't heard much of her latest efforts, at least what Wiki is telling me they are.

226 I predict Ethier signs for 87.5% of that figure.

Robotech and Voltron were probably my favorite cartoons as a kid. or at least very high on the list.

I don't remember who my first famous crush was. Probably Princess Leia circa Return of the Jedi.

Is there a way to cut and paste on an iPhone?

231
There is apparently a band named after the television show. I was talking about the cartoon, but I am listening to their music now it is pretty cool.

238
You need to use an iExacto and iGlue.

238 - not that i've been able to figure out.

240
iThankyou

238 I wish.

Waiting for Tommy to come on 570 at 2p. I do not remember Hartman being this wild and loud back on the Loose Cannons. Wow, he is almost as irritating as Vic.

232 I'm surprised it doesnt say "a requirement of Hoffman signing is that Hell's Bells be played"

A requirement of Hoffman signing is that he is the closer

What are we paying Joe Torre all that money for when the GMs and agents can do his job for him?

I assume Heath Bell will replace Hoffman as the closer. He always looked like more of a Hell's Bell guy then Trevor.

To bad Trevor Bell the ex high draft pick of the Angels didn't get traded to the Padres. You could have had
Trevor Hoffman
Heath Bell
Trevor Bell

Hoffman has a better chance of keeping the closer job all year if he picks the Brewers. If the money is the same but he wants to be the guy in the 9th, the Brewers should be his pick.

Those who are arguing for Hoffman, I can understand your point except for the money. As Joey says, it would be pointless to restructure A Jones contract to create some flexibility, and then blow that flexibility on Trevor Hoffman. I have no doubt he'll be effective in 2009 but we don't need him. It would be wasted money unless he's signed for two million or less and that is not going to happen.

Reportedly both the Dodgers and Brewers have offered him just over $4 MM. The Dodgers have the edge with the SoCal address. If he winds up with the Brewers its probably safe to say it was because we wouldnt guarantee him the closer role.

The main thing I knew about the cartoon Jem, which I never actually watched, was that there was a character who has the same name as my real name. I always thought that was odd. A coworker of mine once sent me a picture of a doll with my name on it, that was part of the Jem line of dolls. She thought it was funny that I was a glam rocker with purple hair. I thought it was just plain disturbing.

I would actually like to see a real life Roger Dorn moment. Imagine Trevor Hoffman at practice one morning after an 8th inning appearance, coming to Joe Torre with his contract in hand, saying, "My contract explicitly states I am to be the closer!"

Joe than takes the contract and proceeds to...well, you know the rest.

I would also like later in the season, after a series of righty-lefty matchups with Hoffman & Kuo switching between LF and P, Hoffman calls timeout and runs in to the mound from LF to talk to Kuo. "I only got one thing to say to you, Kuo. Strike this [guy (said in a different voice)] out."

Those would be my 2nd & 3rd favorite moments of the year, topped only by the moment in spring training when Juan Pierre mutters "we should have gotten a live chicken," then looks over to see a grease-covered Andruw Jones sitting over a now-empty bucket of KFC.

250 Apparently "Major League" is to Eric like "Animal House" is to me.

250

Wow...that had me laughing at the end. Especially seeing Pierre as Serrano

249

Your real name never struck me as a glam rocker name. Maybe the manager of a glam rocker...

I once made a girl fall for me by singing the Jem theme, from memory, on a first date.

"Glamor and glitter, fashion and fame...Jem!"

252
You mean Pierre as Willie Mays Hays! Andruw was playing the role of Cerrano.

251
Apparently "Major League" is to Eric like "Animal House" is to me

Do you cry at the end of Animal House?

Remember Preston Mattingly?

Well, he was interviewed on an Indiana TV station There's a recap here, though I can't find a link to the video itself.

http://www.14wfie.com/Global/story.asp?S=9633433&nav=menu54_4

255 Yes because of the demise of Kevin Bacon's character.

253 I know, that's what's so odd about it. How random. Oh well. Hopefully that won't be the most interesting thing in my obituary.

253
I got a new strategy.

256 I never see rule violations before they get deleted! Then part of me always wonders which rule got violated, and how, and why...

261 The deleted posts are never all that exciting.

258
"The Indians win it, the Indians win it, oh my God, the Indians win it" gets me every time. Cue the Randy Newman music and Rene Russo holding up a ringless finger and it's all over!

262 Oh, I guessed that. But there's something magical about things you can't have.

Ted Green seeing red.
http://www.sportshubla.com/2009/01/03/dodgers-hit-a-home-run-in-real-estate/

I don't think Ted understands the The McCourts have to keep up with the Buss's, Moreno's, and Sterlings who are not your normal wealthy LA patron.

If only Warren Buffet had been a Dodger fan. A classy investor who doesn't flaunt being one of the wealthiest people on earth.
http://tinyurl.com/9lwe5v

261 I don't even know if that is a violation or if it will be deleted, so I am as curious as you...

Maybe we can get Jimmy Buffett.

Cheeseburger in paradise...

266
Be curious no more.

Oh, of course it is Willie Mays Hays. "about 90 feet"

267

[Frank McCourt, reading DT:]

Buffet? Sure, we can lay out a buffet. All the Dodger Dogs you can eat! All the Coke you can drink!

But that'll come with a cost. Dodger fans have to ask themselves whether they want a free agent left fielder or a Dodger Dog.

265 I know the McCourt's ownership has been heavily debated here, so not to stir too much up, but that article sums up every problem I have with the McCourt's with the line, "What hysterical hypocrisy"

Jon's deleted posts should go to the island of misfit posts and be distributed to this clowns blog.
http://tinyurl.com/7ykwvl
Lots of rule 1 violations.

272
After only reading a few paragraphs, I can say that guy needs a therapist.

268 Touche... Sorry for the violation, but given the context of the Pierre as Willie Mays Hays references, that line could not be left out.

272 Not to mention rules 4 through 8, if you glance at a couple of other rants.

Per Jon Heyman - The Brewers appear to be making a strong push to try to lure alltime saves leader Trevor Hoffman, with the Dodgers still believed to be in the mix.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38741

How long until Rule 14 is No Jon Heyman? Dude seems to define Dart-Thrower.

272 That made me laugh.

Jon Daly earned $6.2 million in 2008.

279
Forgot the link...http://tinyurl.com/7k3kuw

279
That is how he is able to spend so much time at a fine establishment like Hooters.

I remember reading somewhere once that John Daly had lost something like $100 million in gambling over the years.

If Hoffman demands to be the closer that might actually make more baseball sense than I originally thought. If Torre is "forced" to use Hoffman in the 9th than he will also be "forced" to use Kuo, Broxton etc. in higher leverage situations earlier in the game.

Does this logic make sense to anyone else?

Regarding Hoffman's demand that he be the closer:

Will there be some kind of enforcement mechanism written into his contract that could guarantee such a thing?

265 I think the article is sort of stupid. Its true the McCourts are hypocrites, but for none of the reasons mentioned in the article-- thought the article vaguely alluded to the Jamie McCourt "50 baseball fields" statement.

I don't get particularly annoyed when rich people buy expensive and over the top things. Also, the claim that the Dodgers can't afford Manny and CC because they bought these properties is completely baseless.

If Hoffman can demand being the closer than I say we demand he has to come out to the song Push th' Little Daises by Ween.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kkJPiTIyZ8

286
Or maybe a counter balance to his hellish Padre days, Trevor could come out to "Just Like Heaven."

265 - if Warren Buffett* owned the Dodgers, they would be run like the Twins, with a slightly larger payroll. And Buffett would dwell in a modest, six-bedroom house somewhere in the Hollywood Hills a short commute from the team.

*This is an idealized, theoretical sort of Buffett, because we all know he's not leaving Omaha.

Cowboys cut Pac-man.

if Warren Buffett owned the Dodgers

They could rename the rightfield pavilion the "Warren Buffet".

290
Excellent.

291
I am surprised they ever make money.

289 It's Adam to me and you.

286 I love that song! That would be classic.

291 got deleted faster than a post by Icaros.

Sorry, Jon.

283. Not a hole lot, because as poorly as most managers use their closers (best relief pitchers on team usually), they still tend to have a higher pLi (average leverage index) than setup men have. Broxton's got quite an uptick last year due to Saito's injury. Your closer should still be your best relief pitcher, but they should be used more efficiently than they currently are imo.
vr, Xei

Dodgers are on Hot Stove Report on Sportscenter.

Well that was pointless.

I always get the feeling like the McCourt family is like the Bluth family, except without the funny.

300 Did it consist of John Kruk saying the Dodgers should sign Hoffman because looking at the roster he doesn't know who any of these players are?

301
Also without a Michael.

Frank=George
Jamie=Gangee
various McCourt sons=Gob and Buster
Ned Colletti= definitely Barry Zuckercorn

But there's something magical about things you can't have.

And thus the foundation of 95% of all parenting crises in 9 simple words.

302
All of this great analysis comes from Buster Olney:

Dodgers need a starter. Must count on Martin, Kemp, and Ethier. Must find a closer whether Broxton or Hoffman. Must count on Bills and Kershaw who are good but very young. Joe Torre could reach record 14th post season in a row.

That seems spot on.

306 Yankee Analysis:

CC, Teix, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada and Rivera must justify salaries with great years. Burnett, Matsuda and Damon have to remain injury free. Wang and Cano must bounce back. Girardi could win Yanks first World Series in the 21st century or be fired for failing to do so.

Wow, Joe Pos's blog sent me on an infomercial viewing bonanza. I loved the "Wunder Boner"

298 If that pitcher is your closer and thus pitches in the 9th inning, how much more effectively could he be used?

309 - Ronco now sells Viagra?

298 thanks for the wisdom

310
He could be used in ties or down 1 in the late innings, or earlier than the 9th in a tough spot facing for example the 3-4-5 hitters rather than waiting for 7-8-9 or something like that in the 9th. He could be used less with a 3-run lead to start the 9th.

Did anyone else catch Tim Kurkijan's (spelling?) take on Outside the Lines' bit on Manny and Hoffman today?

I don't know if it had been discussed here, but Timmy basically said the same old song about how he didn't believe there was another bidder for Manny besides the Dodgers. He did sound fairly confident that Hoffman was going to stay West with the Dodgers.

Take everything with a grain of salt, but Kurkijan is a little better than the rest I like to believe

283 meet 48 and, for that matter, 0

311

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQAT2rKugIs

313 Or as Jon said, if you're willing to use a guy when you're up X runs, you should be willing to use them down X runs.

313 No, I agree but I thought what xeifrank said is that your best relief pitcher should be the closer.

314 He also is a very nice person who took 30 seconds to chat with me in Las Vegas when he didn't have to do that.

Since people mentioned Street Fighter, if you own a PS3 or an X-Box 360, you can download the newest iteration of the series for fifteen bucks. It has the same old-school gameplay and characters, but with re-drawn sprites and easy online functionality. Now you can get whupped by Sagat and his annoying TIGER shots by people on the internet!

Also, Hoffman would be a completely uninspiring signing.

319
In semi-3-D!

Bomberman Live is awesome

I know the players' association was strongly advising agents not to take arbitration. They felt that teams were trying to control players for one year at a lesser amount than they'd have to pay down the line. But again, if you're Jon Garland or Ben Sheets or Orlando Cabrera or Jason Varitek, it cost you a lot of money.

You gotta be kidding me. Don Fehr should be fired for this alone.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/01/gammonss_take.html

318
I don't want to put words in Xeifrank's mouth, but maybe he meant that if one is to use the bullpen roles as currently constructed, in general the 9th inning "closer" role is more optimal than the setup role in total, even though there are certainly times when bringing in the "relief ace" earlier would be more prudent.

Who have the Dodgers signed since 2000 that was inspiring at the moment of the deal? Not trades just free agents including NRI's.

322
Shades of Richie Phillips and the great umpire mass resignation backfire?

Jeff Kent was kind of cool at the time.

324

Wow... that is a GOOD question. You know what though? You could ask this of a lot of MLB teams these days.

What was the last big free agent Baltimore, Minnesota, or St. Louis signed (not counting the home growns like Albert Pujols) since 2000?

324
I was pretty pumped about the J.D. Drew deal, but I would not call the general fan reaction inspiring.

Frank H. McCourt, Jr.
Owner, Los Angeles Dodgers, "Dodger Stadium: The Next 50 Years"

Thursday, March 19, 2009
Noon Luncheon Program with Q&A

Millennium Biltmore Hotel

http://tinyurl.com/9v9u2v

That article in 265 is over the top. My favorite line was the following:

Who is Jamie's role model, Saddam Hussein?

Wow...

323. Yes, that is pretty much what I meant. Sorry if there was some confusion #318, #313 was as good a response as I could give. Of course, I would've thrown in a food or movie analogy, packaging my response to the DT demographic.
vr, Xei

I would think a Manny's signing would be aspiring.

new Rosenthal article on why Dunn is better for LA

http://tinyurl.com/7zchz8

333

or to use exact phrasing, "not a bad alternative"

331
Of course, I would've thrown in a food or movie analogy, packaging my response to the DT demographic

I often use focus groups to test out my posts before hitting submit. :)

yikes nevermind that article is very old.

I think i'll slither away now

335 I thought that was what he meant but I have learned its dangerous to read between the lines.

324 In all seriousness for me:

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Andruw Jones
3. Jeff Kent
4. J.D. Drew

I don't know, for one thing, the low number of players accepting arbitration is not unusual. But what happened to throw everything off, the Yankees stepped in and did something they have not done in a couple of years, sign the best players at the top price.

By doing that, they did two things, eliminated themselves from paying more money for lesser players and then caused other teams to just sit back and say, well Derek Lowe is not CC so I am not spending my money on him.

Add the facta that teams that would have gladly given up picks in the past like the Giants are more hesitant to do so (Manny will be a test for them) and that after CC and Teixeira, the market was just not that great.

324 -

Rafael Furcal
Andruw Jones
J.D. Drew

http://www.slate.com/id/2208108/pagenum/all/

Bill James wants you to boycott the BCS.

Jeff Kent
Odalis Perez
Andruw Jones

I, for one, have not given up on Preston Mattingly. I think everyone else has though. Seeing him in person makes him look much better than he has really been. He has tools and I think one day he will actually use them productively.

324 I'll bend the rules a little bit: Mr Grumpy, in '99.

Then, the first time I saw him pitch, he gave up two HR's in the first inning...to the Pirates. Then threw to first base on a comebacker. With the bases loaded. And no outs.

That was the end of the night for him...

Yay! One of my favorite basketball movies (not that there are many) is finally coming to DVD (Feb 3): Inside Moves!

324 I was pretty excited about Jeff Kent, especially after I believe his first or second at bat when he slid headfirst into 1st base trying to beat out a grounder to the hole.

Also Furcal and Schmidt

345 That was a good flick...Savage and Morse are terrific actors. And a year later Scarwid was in Mommie Dearest.

Where Manny Ramirez will end up in '09 is still an offseason mystery

>> The smart money remains on Ramirez staying with the Dodgers, maybe getting less than the $40 million over two years from the options that he demanded be dropped when he was traded. But L.A. might be able to win the NL West again while spending less money on Adam Dunn, letting its young players develop and using some leftover money for pitching. Remember that Dodgers owner Frank McCourt has a reputation among his team's fans for being cheap, and that Ramirez didn't cost him a dime for the two months he spent at Chavez Ravine. <<

## "Gas is up, and so am I," Ramirez said in October. But now gas is down, and apparently so is he. The longer he stays on the market, the more it seems that Ramirez might be the greatest $16-18 million-per-year bargain in the history of, well, $16-18 million-per-year bargains. ##

http://tinyurl.com/75u74r

I was excited about Kevin Brown, JD Drew, Rafael Furcal, and sorta by Jeff Kent.

I thought the Drew deal was terrific (still do). For Furcal and Brown, I thought they might have been too expensive, but I certainly loved the additions to the team. For Kent, I had a hard time getting past his Giant-ness, but couldn't argue with his bat.

I thought the signings of Perez, Valentin, and Jones were risky but worth it, and I was wrong in all three cases.

316 - "My wife would like that!"

Uh... if you say so ...

Eric Mangini is the new Browns coach.

Grizzlies trade draft pick for Miami's Livingston

>> The Memphis Grizzlies have traded a 2012 conditional second-round draft pick to the Miami Heat in exchange for guard Shaun Livingston and cash. <<

http://tinyurl.com/9sxsey

346
Diving into first base (and, to a lesser extent, any base) is probably the single dumbest thing any baseball player can do in the ordinary course of a game.

If Raul Mondesi's rant about Kevin Malone, however, had come during a game, that would have been...

No, wait. That would have been way smarter. In fact, way, way smarter.

I feel a contest coming on. Dumber for me would be a batter leaving the donut on.

Farewell, Steven Gilborn. A character actor I really enjoyed. He was Kevin's math teacher on The Wonder Years.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117998166.html

317 The stated premise is rather erroneous. For why, think "risk of loss". Risk of loss changes with both quality of pitching and runs ahead or behind. Then consider the finite nature of thing, i.e., you're only going to get X innings pitched from this particular soul over the course of the year. Do you really wish to use the best of your finite innings pitched in the lower win expectancy circumstance?

Dumb for me is what Ned Yost did that finally got him fired. Forcing his LOOGY to walk Ryan Howard with an IBB.

BTW, Top Chef is tonight!

He was Kevin's math teacher on The Wonder Years

Mr. Collins, I believe. One of the most memorable characters on the show. His episodes were among the best.

354
No, I'll give you that one. Also, I'll concede Psycho dropping his pants. What I meant was, a thing that a player might actually do, without prompting Vinny to injure himself laughing, or Joe Torre to lose control of his bladder.

Come to think of it, I may need to re-think my parameters. But this is the smartest baseball place on the WEB; you guys know what I meant. Don't you?

356 - You're not factoring the fact that if you only use a pitcher when you're winning, you're going to end up using him on innings that are wasted innings, when win expectancy is so high that he's not needed? Do you really wish to use the best of your finite innings pitched in low-leverage, extreme win expectancy circumstances?

329 This part seems appropriate:
Valet Parking $18

361
Don't you hate it when you try to provoke an interesting (or at least comical) discussion and the boss intervenes with important business that requires intelligent discussion?

362. Does Ned Colletti own a red vest?

Dumbest for me has to be tearing up your knee arguing a call at first base.

Ending the game by not tagging up on a foul ball?

355
I saw him at the old version of Gus's Bar-B-Q the first time I went there. I also saw Robert Reed there that day.

The latter looked unwell.

Catching a ball with one hand. ;)

353 - I would posit that the Pete Rose Superman slide would be rather effective sliding into second or third. First base is a toss up as it has unique rules regarding running down the line that don't apply to other bases. Also, sliding is quite necessary because you have to stop on the base, so you need a way to slow down in the most effective way possible (meaning over the shortest distance).

So why don't we see more people trying to steal 2nd to 3rd?

Easier throw for the catcher plus the old "don't make the first or third out at third" saying is very true.

370. I don't understand the question. Stealing 2nd or 3rd is HARDER than getting to first because you have to slow down to stop in time. For 1st base, you can and should sprint through the base.

If your question is about stealing 3rd as often as 2nd, I guess the usual answer is that it's a shorter throw for the catcher, so the runner has less time. Morgan (or someone) is always going on about how stealing 3rd is easier than 2nd, either because you can get a bigger lead or because a RH batter can help out (I forget which), but it would be a HUGE unexploited market inefficiency if that were generally true (which makes me think that it isn't true).

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3817433 Rocco Badelli is a red sox

Oh yeah, and the added benefit of moving from 2nd to 3rd is lower than from 1st to second and the opportunity cost of getting caught is higher.

365 You mean tearing up your knee after getting baited by an umpire.

375. And yanked down by your manager?

Didn't someone post a study here a couple of months ago suggesting that the head first dive into first might actually be a quicker way of getting there?

358 You don't mean Top Scallop?

377. I think that was "quicker than a feet-first slide." Which makes sense, since we run leaning forward, not backward. But it's not faster than just sprinting and not sliding at all.

373
I'm always worried about whether to type "Red Sock" or "Red Sox" in the singular.

379 Yeah, that must have been it. Thanks.

378 Only if Jamie doesn't get offed tonight. (That's not a spoiler, just speculation.)

380 I am always worried that I will pronounce it wrong.

378 Or Top Fauxhawk.

$500,000 question on Millionaire (Meredith Viera edition):

"The motto 'And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free' is inscribed in the lobby of what agency's headquarters?"

A. FBI
B. CIA
C. Dep't of Education
D. Library of Congress

(million dollar question coming right up . . .)

Baldelli, 27, has been limited to 155 games the last three years because of a mitochondrian disorder

On the bright side, he's strong in The Force.

The contestant is from LA, guy named Kevin Smith, big white Karl Marx beard.

His phone a friend gave the wrong answer and that question and he decided to go with his own gut and got it right . . .

"The US icon Uncle Sam was based on Samuel Wilson who worked during the War of 1812 as a what?"

A. Meat Inspector
B. Mail deliverer
C. Historian
D. Weapons Mechanic

He won $1,000,000.

Congratulations Kevin Smith.

Meredith is giddy. It's the first million dollar winner on her show.

i may be being dense here, but i don't understand the whole "i get a certain roster spot" clause of these contracts. suppose pavano is totally ineffective as a starter or hoffman blows his first eight saves. does the team have to either (a) keep running them out there in that role or (b) waive them? i guess my question is: what is a team to do if the player's performance does not warrant the contractually agreed upon role on the team?

Who wants to be a millionaire is still running?

Rockets and Celtics in a good one.

Houston up by 2 with 43.8 left in the 4th.

386
The word is mitrochondrial, not mitochondrian and it turned out that Baldelli didn't have a mitochondrial disorder after all.
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1189143.html

390 I don't think its a contractual agreement, more like an understanding with the front office and GM that a player is being brought in to do a certain role.

Sure, Hoffman can demand the closer role, the Dodgers give it to him without an audition, and then season starts, and the circumstances takes it from there. Its not as if players like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones could put that they had to be the starting center fielder in their contract.

Trevor Hoffman to make his decision Thursday

>> The Dodgers will learn Thursday whether Trevor Hoffman will be their closer this year.

Rick Thurman, the agent for Hoffman, said via text message this afternoon that the pitcher "will be making [his] decision tomorrow." <<

http://tinyurl.com/8kq45h

390 - This would actually be a clause in a contract and not just Ned and Joe telling, in this case, Trevor that they are getting him to be the closer?

Kevin Smith is a retired truck driver.

He's calling his mom now.

Celtics are going to lose again. This time at home.

2-6 in their last 8.

In one of the latest Geico ads, in which an exec presents the gecko with a miniature suit, the gecko reponds with some grunts and then "what's the word". I think he mouths "gauche". Any opinions. This is obviously one of the most important events on TV.

394 - The Braves should have kept their mouths shut!

398
I remember the Bill Simmons pre-Christmas podcast (Celts were 26-2) in which he decided they were a lock to beat the '96 Bulls record of 72-10. Awesome.

If the Dodgers sign Hoffman, it will give me relief, as at one point I was afraid they didn't have much money to spend. But they need a slugging left fielder and a SP so much more than a relief pitcher, that they must have "scads" of money still available.

394 post #232 made it seem like it was a condition of the contract. and i heard reports that pavano's signing was conditioned on him being slotted as a starter. if it's what you say, that makes a lot more sense. thanks.

I'm watching Top Chef in HD for the first time. San Diego must rank above South Pasadena in the pecking order for adding channels.

There are no product placements as ham-handed and clunky as those of Top Chef.

402 this talk about signing hoffman feels eerily to the offseason when it was clear that the dodgers needed a big bat, and when they couldn't get one, they signed pierre and schmidt instead. it's like running out of milk, going out to buy some, and coming home with vaseline and a blow torch instead.

Padma in HD would be excellent.

I am not sure if I could handle it actually.

405 You haven't seen a Project Runway ep then.

395 If the Dodgers offerred 3 mil, Hoffman would jump at the chance. Nobodies going to give him much money, but he would love to get a chance to get career totals and he is definitely a competitor, who would love to get into the play-offs. Heck, he would have come to the Dodgers for 2 mil in a second.

408 That's true.

Millionaire answers:

385 B
388 A

402 - I am guessing that they were prepared to go much higher for Manny, so there is that money, as well as the Druw "savings". I think that both Ned and Joe want a frontline SP, so that must be under the mattress, as well.

409
That seems highly speculative at best. It has been reported that the Dodgers (and the Brewers) offered Hoffman over $4 million, yet he didn't immediately accept their offer.

412 I expect he will after careful deliberation, unfortunately accept some deal near five mil.

I vote 406 analogy of the thread.

Traditionally, does "closer by committee work? I've always thought it didn't but I could be wrong.

361 Already factored in, and so we see that the "closer" usually only comes in when up by 3 or less. But let me take another approach. If you're losing, do you need to rely on some run scoring to win? So the pitcher's effectiveness is of lesser import in that circumstance since even if he pitches perfect, you can still lose with no runs scored by your batters. In contrast, if you've the lead, and he's perfect, that's all that you need to win. So why do you want to handcuff your best pitching to the hoped-for hitting [especially when it is more probable than not that our hoped-for hitting will fail to materialize]?

The only circumstance where this doesn't hold true is the circumstance of waste [and by waste, I mean a wasted chance to pitch that we can't and won't get back]. Such explains why, even when there's no hold/save situation, we bring in the dominant reliever when there's an off day following [and so, fine, not his maximized use, but better lesser use than no use at all].

Why can't we have a closer like the old days were they closed 4-5 innings?

417 I believe they call them starters, and they start the start of the game.

401 Von Wafer beats the Celtics. Really, really.

Chris Paul and David West have great games okay, I can live with that.

But Von Wafer.

Now watch the Warriors beat the Lakers.

With the right parts, just about anything should work. Is that what the Reds had with Dibble, Carlton and whatshisname? Way back further, before they had the "closer" as we know it today, isn't that what they did?

418

in the early to mid 80's they had 3-4 innings closers didn't they? I heard Jon talk about it.

To quote Tommy "what are you a smart guy!!" :o)

419
That is not happening. The Warriors are terrible.

415 Traditionally, does "closer by committee work? I've always thought it didn't but I could be wrong.

The Rays basically did this for the playoffs. You need multiple relievers that can pitch multiple innings, an understanding that there is no set roles, only situations where your skill set can help the team, and also apprently, relying on David Pryce.

I have to recall I believe 2007 when the Snakes exceeded their pythag to the extreme, and allowed more runs than they scored. Sites like THT and BP felt they used their best RP's in games they could win, and trash in games they were likely to lose. It worked that year. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything, but I will resent spending 5 mill on a 40+ reliever.

Is it weird to watch Top Chef while eating Rubios' fish tacos?

423 And how did that work out for them? :0)

"I think it tasted a bit like cat food."

I guess that's not a good thing . . . ?

424 - Not sure about cause and effect in that situation, but as I recall, when they lost they lost big, which accounted for their doing better that pythag.

426 hey, they still only as effective as their manager. Madden didn't treat game 5.5 as an extended game, and got beat over with. Could have put Shields or another starter, but chose not to.

They really should say "I think it tasted a bit like I imagine cat food tastes." Otherwise I get the wrong impression.

428 That seems to put us in agreement.
426 Very true.

426=429

425 hey Eric, just to add to the list, I met Padma last year.

433
Did you become momentarily incapacitated?

433
Now you've invaded my dreams!!! ;)

If I met Padma, I would either pass out or ask her to marry me.

435 sometimes when you meet people in person, it's a let down because they're not as nice as you thought they'd be or that they'd look different or not as good. Let's just say I experienced no such disappointment.

Or unsuccessfully try to hit on her using my limited knowledge of my Indian background.

435 But I met Kevin Goldstein and Will Carroll. And I could have sworn Amy Nelson was in pie throwing range.

438 she apparently has a thing for much older and much richer men. although i think she has a crush on anthony bourdain.

440
She admits she has daddy issues.

If only I had the good looks of Salman Rushdie.

436 If you don't have a price on your head then you would be an improvement over her last boyfriend.

435
People I have met who were not a disappointment:
1. Kristi Yamaguchi
2. Mike Haynes
3. Tim Kurkijan
4. Several Dodgers I met last year at the luncheons including Steve Garvey, Bobby Welch, Rick Monday, Jerry Reuss, Mike Davis and Rudy Law.

People who apparently had a bad day before I bumped into them:

1. James Worthy (to be fair he was probably all of 22-23 at that time).

442
You didn't run into Worthy right after the ill-fated pass to Gerald Henderson, did you?

Nooooooooo . . . . .

443 I am pretty sure this was during his first two years before that playoff series.

444
Well, I know they kicked off at least one person Sam likes.

I already have my assumptions.

Obviously not after the ill-fated Freddie Brown pass.

444 Was it something I said or are you upset JJ42 did not get a picture of Padma.

448 Somebody just got knifed on Top Chef. I suppose Sam DC was a fan of said knifed contestant.

448 Oh but I did, not with me though - she took a picture with my girlfriend. It would have been kind of awkward if I had my girlfriend take a picture of me with Padma.

Two people get kicked off Top Chef tonight.

High chance of me being disappointed.

Is anyone else thrown off by watching Dick Vitale announce an NBA game on espn tonight?

I didn't know Top Chef had come to that.
But when you have competitive people and loose knives, it was bound to happen.

Indeed I was reacting to a fave getting the axe.

Huh, Jaymee Sire is quite cute, as pointless Comcast Sports sideline reporters go.

Glad to see the Lakers stormed back (granted it's early).

455
Haha pretty much same quote my friend said last week when he saw her.

Oakland, where sports go to die.

456 - Cute and pointless, what's not to like?

Hm, when did Sun Yue start getting playing time? I must've missed that trend.

Tonight I've run into my first real problem on the Mac. I was moving some mp3s on my external hard drive, which was created in windows, to the trash. When I got them there, I couldn't empty the trash because several of the files were locked. I managed to get them unlocked and emptied the trash again. It then removed all the mp3s, but left empty folders which I can't get rid of. I did some online searches and found a few suggestions, including a few programs that remove files for you and going to the command line and typing in a certain string to remove them. Nothing has worked. Anyone have a suggestion?

Why does Comcast need so many people working on Warriors games? Do not really need a crew of five people to cover the Warriors.

458 Nevermind, I've just made some progress.

Smoltz "on verge of" Red Sox deal saith Olney.

$5M plus $5M more in incentives.

http://tinyurl.com/76tlmr

So the Red Sox are going to bet that either Brad Penny turns it around this year, or that Smoltz will stay healthy.

Also, if you asked me to bet if an elite college program like Florida or OU could beat the 2008 Lions. I would have to think long and hard about it.

Hm, when did Sun Yue start getting playing time? I must've missed that trend.

Farmar, Odom, and Walton are all hurt.

Lakers/Warriors

Nice try, SF, but I don't care if the Lakers lose by 50 to the Warriors tonight. The Celtics still got beat by Von Wafer, the same guy that missed a dunk.

Ah, I love it!

462
Well, Smoltz is only going to be playing probably half the year. I think he is definitely worth the risk. The Red Sox have the depth to take these risks with their pitching.

I wish we got Smoltz. Darnit it. Understand why we don't, blah blah..but darn it.

It looks like the Lakers will lose to the awful Warriors tonight. The Warriors can say they beat the Celtics and Lakers this year as their championship. Their only goal is to get one win against the Cavs and they can say their season was a success.

468
No, they won't.

469 - I seriously hope you are right, I hate losing to the Warriors. I hate Nor Cal more than anything.

Why?

There are people who comment from Northern California who post on Dodgers Thoughts. I am not one of them.

471 - I am a diehard So cal guy if you didn't notice. I have family and friends (sadly) from Nor Cal and none of them ever respected the city of Los Angeles as a place or sportstown. I am the type where if you don't like me I will hate you twice as hard.

Therefore I hate the Giants (Obviously), Warriors, Kings, Sharks, 49ers, and whatever else they got up there.

Well, I am born and raised in the Bay Area and have been a fan of LA sports my whole life.

Sources: Hoffman appears headed to Milwaukee

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9044754/Sources:-Hoffman-appears-headed-to-Milwaukee

476 - Good

475 - Good job..keep in mind I never said everyone in Nor Cal. There are plenty of Dodgers and Lakers fans up in the Bay Area. But they also have a lot of haters.

I thought Smoltz was to busy playing golf these days.

470

It's really not a big deal, even if the Lakers lose to the Warriors tonight. They're pretty far ahead in the division standings. At worse they drop to a 3rd seed. Besides, this Lakers/Warriors thing isn't close to the Dodgers/Giants rivalry.

And as I say that Sasha hits a 3 to put the Lakers ahead :-)

Its amazing that the Red Sox spent $10 million with the potentiality of spending $20 million with incentives on two pitchers they can't really count on being healthy. If the Dodgers did that, we'd be screaming bloody murder.

Are oft injured pitchers the new market inefficiency?

473

I wouldn't wanna run into you in a dark alley, do you have gold gloves or a black belt?

I would not be screaming murder if we signed Smoltz.

Why I never ripped the Schmidt deal. Of course, after we found out that the team knew his shoulder was shot, I may rip on it now.

481

Brad Penny looked totally lost out there this year, I'm thinking he'll be a total bust this year but Smotlzy is fierce & very competitive from what I've read so I'm thinking he is a dark horse.

482 - Actually I am only a yellow belt so I do not want to run into anybody in a dark alley.

481 It's hard to get mad at a one year deal with upside, especially if you can easily afford it.

480 - Well I mean its no big deal in the sense that life goes on and the Lakers are still beyond better but I still don't ever want to lose to the Warriors. Of course Lakers/Warriors is not even in the same book as Dodgers/Giants. It is just the So Cal pride in me. I will always always root for failure upon Nor Cal.

Red Sox are also pursuing Saito.

They might as well sign Sheets too and have "Team Comeback From Injury."

Belinelli with one of the most embarrassing air balls i've seen in a while...great stretch for the lakes there

Sometimes I think Sasha just chucks 3 point shot just to make himself happy. He doesn't care if they go in or not, as long as he gets to launch it he is happy.

487 I imagine more A's fans sitting in the Oracle than I do Giants, so they don't seem to bother me as much. Now the Queens are different story.

I hate the Giants and Sharks though quite a bit. 49rs aren't as high on my hate list because I never got a chance do develop real Raider loyalty because I was bit too young.

reading the The Times, it says Trevor Hoffman will make his decision tomorrow.

I'm blind, i'm deaf, i wanna be a ref...even though he does flail a bit, Kobe is getting massacred under the hoop.

Warrior fans hate for LA is much worse than Giants fans hate for Dodgers, I swear.

One, there is only one team for everyone in the area to root for.

Two, basketball is a real big deal in the Bay Area.

Three, the Lakers are a model franchise that wins, while the Warriors are the Warriors.

Its easy to hate the Lakers. They're the Yankees of the NBA.

494 - Exactly. Very true.

495 - Also true. Warriors fans, Kings fans, Clippers fans, Suns fans, Blazers fans, obviously Celtics fans, I can go on and on with this hate list.

Good win for the Lakers tonight.

476 - Not that I want to listen to Rosenthal but I won't be upset if Hoffman signs with Milwaukee. Hoffman as a Dodger just would've felt icky. 4 million dollars can be better spent.

11:27pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers have emerged as the frontrunner for Hoffman. [mlbtraderumors]

11:31pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Dodgers have pulled even and are now--according to sources--a little bit ahead.

11:37pm: Ken Rosenthal takes a power nap.

1:54am: Ken Rosenthal wakes with the cold sweats realizing Milwaukee and LA are dead even for Hoffman's services.

2:01am: Ken Rosenthal flips over his pillow, searching in vain for the perfect spot on which to lay his weary head.

2:15am: Ken Rosenthal mumbles in his sleep something about Milwaukee moving slightly into the lead again.

469
See. Screwing things up is what the Warriors do.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2009/01/sources_crennel_wont_be_on_man.html

Eric Mangini hired Rob Ryan of the Raiders as his defensive coordinator. I guess Ryan knew what the writing on the wall was, and got out of dodge as soon as he could.

49ers also hired our RBs coach as their OC and Seattle hired our OC as their OC.

Why teams are poaching staff from the Raiders is beyond me.

I just want to know what the Raiders will do with stud defensive back Nnamdi Asomugha

503

are any words silent in that name?

Boy, Boston College doesn't mess around.

Nnamdi will be tagged. We will then trade him or try to sign him long-term. He may holdout and then Al will just let him sit and not play, because Al is crazy.

She is doing scallops again!!!

482 - begs the question, am I the only black belt in these parts?

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

My fav is gone, but I knew that was inevitable.

Ok, I am gonna try again to make an arguement for Hoffman. I find most of the arguements against him are not really focusing on the important part, which is his performance on the field. Here are some of the arguements in this thread against signing Hoffman.

200 "HELLS BELLS!!! THAT'S WHY!!!"
Probably tongue-in-cheek, but has nothing to d owith whether we should sign him or not.

211 "Because Hoffman is a ballplayer and Ned likes ballplayers."
Again, irrelevant to the arguement. Hoffman is a good "ballplayer" so I don't see why Ned shouldn't like him.

"If we sign Hoffman for anywhere near the amount the Rays signed Burrell I will cry."
Well it sounds like we offered him just a bit over 4 million, which is only 25% of Burrell's contract, so I doubt that will be the case. Although, really, they probably are near in value for our team. Burrell was worth 2.8 wins last season, and projections have him near that value again, maybe a bit less. Dodger Sims has Pierre worth 0.83 wins, next year, which I personally think is low, but we'll stick with that. That makes Burrell a two win upgrade over Pierre, plus a small amount for Pierre replacing a bench OF'er. But Hoffman is projected to be worth 1.75-1.95 wins if you look here at Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-a-relievers

And would probably be replacing a near replacement level reliever in the bullpen (Elbert maybe? He's projected for 0.21 WAR). So he's probably around a 1.5 win upgrade for us. So, really, what's the difference between the two, 0.5 to 0.75 wins? Not much considering the howling Ned will get here if we do sign Hoffman.

221 "I gave the Dodgers some credit for letting Saito (5mils) & Beimel (4mils possible) go, thinking they'd apply that $9mils towards something useful (like a Pat Burrell, Abreu, etc). But if they throw most of it for 1yr of Trevor Hoffman, I have to question what they are thinking."

They saved 12 million on Andruw's restructure, so its unfair to call 4-5 million most of that, its not even half.

"Would there be a worse way to spend $6mils, than on an old closer?"

Sure, they could do what you suggested and sign Abreu. And yes, I'm saying I would sign Hoffman over Abreu, with equal contracts, which I'm sure many will think absurd but look at the numbers. Here's Abreu's wins above replacement the last 7 years:

2002: 7.2
2003: 6.2
2004: 5.8
2005: 4.0
2006: 3.3
2007: 2.2
2008: 1.1

Because of his horrific defense, Abreu isn't even an average player anymore. He is projected to be worth 1.46 wins above replacement next year, or only half the value of Hoffman (considering he'd replacing Pierre), yet he is likely to get a bigger contract! It's interesting that while Colletti is criticized heavily in this thread many here would make similiarly bad moves as Ned has.

247 "I have no doubt he'll be effective in 2009 but we don't need him."
Need is relative, we don't NEED him, but we don't NEED a starting pitcher either, its just more likely we'll win with them. But we should try to replace Saito's lost innings (and Beimel and Park's) with another reliever if we can, because it makes our team better. We didn't need those guys last year, but it certainly helped.

"It would be wasted money unless he's signed for two million or less and that is not going to happen."

I don't see how it could possibly be wasted if we get a good player. Maybe we overpay but its not a waste and 4 million is not overpaying at all, it's a bargain. Hoffman's fair market value is 8.5-9.5 million at his projections.

"As Joey says, it would be pointless to restructure A Jones contract to create some flexibility, and then blow that flexibility on Trevor Hoffman."

As noted earlier, the flexibility would not be nearly blown. But I just don't buy this point in general. Our payroll right now is 77 million. If we gave Hoffman 5M then we're at 82M. How on Earth could that keep us from getting Manny? We could give him 23M and still only be at 105M, leaving 10M or so for a starting pitcher. The only way this doesn't work is if payroll is dropping significantly, but frankly there's no reason to believe that other than fan speculation. Otherwise we should be able to still afford Manny and just about any FA starter left in this market (including my choice Pettitte).

Anyway, I just don't see much of an arguement against the signing as is. There will be at least one Dodger fan a bit disappointed if we don't get him. Oh, and apologies in advance for the length of this post. :)

511 - I'm impressed.

OK, I got to see my DVR recordings of the last couple days:

1) I liked the first episode of Ken Burns Baseball. Yes, a bit heavy on the elegiac and tinkly sound track, but i really like the leisurely pace - time to get into things. It sure beats the frenetic pace of "Epic Moments" - breathless highlights of 5-second peaks: without buildup, they become meaningless. Lots of details of 19th-c baseball I had no idea of. If there were factual errors (?), I guess that's too bad.

2) If Bob is feeling content not to have MLB network due to his dislike of Ken Burns typified by short shrift to Cardinals 13 episodes from now, note the fact that the very next program after Ken Burns was 1946 World Series featuring the Cardinals beating the Red Sox. A bit too fast for me - just snippets, but nice ones of Stan Musial and esp. Enos Slaughter. Eat your heart out, Bob. They'll be doing all WS 1943-48 during January, including 1947 Dodgers vs. Yankees, first appearance of proto-Boys of Summer. I really hope they get eventually to 1941 - pre-Boys of Summer (though springtime of Pee Wee Reese): I want to see Pete Reiser. In the first-day nearly complete 1956 WS, I really liked seeing the grace of Duke Snider, though he didn't quite make it on that occasion. MLB network is a Good Thing.

3) Top Chef OK. Much better on DVR without the 150 ads. Glad they got rid of Eugene, very annoying guy.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090108&content_id=3736591&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

Career saves leader Trevor Hoffman is closing in on a deal with the Brewers.

Friday Night Lights ruled tonight. I'm thinking about getting in on a Damages backlash - I thought tonight's premiere was dull in long stretches - but I'll give it more time.

511 "If we sign Hoffman for anywhere near the amount the Rays signed Burrell I will cry."
Well it sounds like we offered him just a bit over 4 million, which is only 25% of Burrell's contract, so I doubt that will be the case.

I suspect that person was referring to Burrell's per/year salary ($8M) and not the entire two-year contract.

511
But can he cook scallops?

515
Funny, I was thinking of watching that show. I guess I will put that off.

Woah My Cowboys releases Packan Jones!!

511
Very nice! That excellent post just took point/counterpoint to whole new level.

518 - I like Damages fine - I watched every episode last season - but I think some of the praise I've seen for it has gotten out of control, especially compared to what they delivered tonight.

How is WARP calculated? Sometimes I see players with terrible numbers, but a decent WARP and it just does not make sense to me how that is possible.

519 - Pacman Jones released. Stupid iPhone spelling.

Anyone have any suggestions on little seen shows that are good? Or older shows?

524
I sort of like Testees on FX, but I have a warped sense of humor.

512,
Thanks a lot Jon. This may sound silly, but being a college student who kind of aspires to write, that's pretty much an honor coming from you, even if you weren't exactly talking about what I wrote.

Although it sounds as though my post will be for naught, assuming 514 is correct. Kind of have to laugh at the timing. Too bad.

526
By the way, I'm warming to your idea of Pettitte instead of Sheets, despite what I wrote last week.

My DVR has TWICE refused tonight to record "Damages."

528
On which side of the pro/con T-chart with Time Warner does this transgression fall?

516 The AAV of Burrell's contract is still near double what we offered Hoffman.

520 Thanks.

522 http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Wins_Above_Replacement_Player

If their batting numbers are bad, then they are probably good fielders and play a premium defensive position because there are penalties depending on position.

529
I don't know. Time Warner recently changed its software on its DVR to "improve" it. It is an unusual use of the word "improve" as its performance is worse. It often doesn't pick the correct shows to tape. The old software never messed up.

I'm relieved Hoffman isn't coming here.

Just hope Ned doesn't panic and sign Juan Cruz. That would ruin the entire offseason.

Pete Carroll promotes Rocky Seto to defensive coordinator

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/01/pete-carroll-pr.html

519 523
Nah, it was funnier that way.

527
Nice, coming over to the light side of the force. :)

528
That's actually pretty hilarious. I've never had that happen before.

531
I had a similar software "upgrade" in the last few months, and I lost some of the functionality in recording items. I also lost the guide ability to search for keywords in the description of shows.

Not a big fan.

533
And Norton got a promotion (to assistant head coach) too. Sweet.

Ok, I had to DVR the Laker game because I was at school. I couldn't get it to start recoding until a bit of the way in. COuld someone answer why is Sun Yue playing in the middle of second quarter?? I've only seen him play in 4th quarer blowouts. And please don't spoil the game!!

531
I came close to switching to AT&T U-Verse a few months back, but I decided I couldn't live without the MLB Extra Innings package. I didn't want to watch games on my computer, so that killed the deal for me.

537
The bench is thin without Odom and Walton. The two guys who didn't play were Mihm & Mbenga (I don't think that was enough of a spoiler).

539
No, not a spoiler, thanks. I didn't even know Odom was out (haven't been following closely lately), what happened? Right now the Lakers are blowing their big lead and I'm being subjected to Jim Barnett, the Warriors color commentator, a truly awful announcer if you ask me. This is not entertaining.

I have seen Powell play on the Warriors and Mavericks and I think he deserves more playing time. He can fit the Turiaf role.

540
I have met Jim Barnett on several occasions. At the movies, at the game, at a bar, he is a nice guy.

540
Bone bruise suffered trying to help on Chris Paul last night. Timetable for Odom's return is unknown. Could be days, could be weeks. I'd link to the LA Times article, but there are sidebar references to tonight's result.

The Warriors commentators are not as homerish as they used to be. That is pretty much the theme with Bay Area commentators.

We are homers, but not as bad as we used to be.

542 544
Oh nothing against him personally, I just don't think he is very good at his job. You're right though, he doesn't seem quite as homerish. Still, I find the Warriors guys near as bad as the D-backs announcers, which is to say, mute worthy.
I actually kind of like Kruk and Kuip though. For some reason they're homerism is more entertaining.

543
Ah, I see. Yeah, I didn't check because i figured I would see the score.

Bill Plaschke chimes in:

Dodgers are playing the Manny Ramirez game perfectly

http://tinyurl.com/9jhf9b

Bill Plaschke sucks at life.

I gladly wait for the day when everyone just ignores his existence.

Lakers win!! Not pretty but they got it done. I thought for sure they would lose for a while.

"Damages" is a B+ show. It's a little too overheated, the characters don't always behave like humans do, the writing is inconsistent. If you watch it not expecting it to be much better than a good episode of a network show -- the Mentalist, say -- it's satisfying. But up against this decade's instant-classic cable sagas like The Wire, Mad Men, Sopranos or even underappreciated shows like Brotherhood or Breaking Bad, it falls short. It's not fascinating, largely because it doesn't feel very real. It's plot-heavy, but character-light. It's a beach novel show. In fact, they should be running it in the summer.

I have to admit, though: I love it when actors like William Hurt and Ted Danson reach this age, when every performance is sheer hambonery.

547 Yeah, but today must be Plaschke's stuck-clock day. I don't disagree with his main points. Including: I think it would behoove Ned to get back in touch with Derek Lowe. He's feeling kind of vulnerable right now. He might decide the gritty Northeast isn't how he remembered it, especially now that we're slipping into a new Ice Age.

550
I guess I will have to watch and judge for myself, but when people say it is equal to a network show, I take that as a bad sign. Rose Byrne is the number one reason why I want to check the show out.

551
I do not read what he writes. A diseased retarded squirrel can find a nut every now and then.

I was not entirely disappointed with the season premier of "Scrubs". Courtney Cox won't be able to fill Kelso's shoes and Elliot's character is still kinda pointless, but I laughed out loud quite a few times. I'm also glad they brought Keith back.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are currently 1st in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, and 1st in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency.

I assume Hoffman is Wisconsin bound--the official Dodger site this morning has dropped the "pursuing Hoffman" story, his photo, and indeed all mention of him.

I always find it kinda surprising when the official Dodger site announces that the Dodgers are interested in a particular player.

Next they'll drop the photo with Andruw Jones next to Stalin.

I guess if we can't reach a deal with Manny Ramirez, I'm warming to the idea of Adam Dunn [http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9041644/Dunn-would-be-smart-alternative-for-Dodgers]

Lowe to the Braves might happen, pending their meeting today.

Very good news for our draft pick! They'd give us a much better 2nd rounder than the Mets.

Ha! Gibby's WS HR was a Double Jeopardy answer
last night. Thought that was pretty cool.

Bloom and McCalvy say the Brewers faxed a term sheet to Hoffman's agent

That settles it: Hoffman's a Dodger.

561 Afraid you are right.

NPUT

561 - Hah hah, I was just thinking the same thing.

Time to swoop in at the last minute and steal him away! {cackle}

Or not.