The Dodgers are on pace to break the LA team records for both hits and LOB in a season.

bullpen looks Ok headed into the Tomko start. Still have a fresh Saito, Broxton, Beimel and Stults. If Tomko goes 4 innings or less then things could get interesting. Thanks for the pitching count chart.
vr, Xei

If Tomko can last 5 innings and we don't go extra frames we should be ok. If Tomko doesn't last 5 innings, then Stults probably pitches us through the 6th inning. If he can do that, then we are ok. If not, then Hernandez who made 9 pitches may be asked to pitch another inning. vr, Xei

1-X, Tomko
X-6, Stults
7-Beimel
8-Broxton
9-Saito

Saw the game with Toy Cannon, its amazing how many time the Dodgers had the tying run at the plate or on deck during this game.

Hate to say it but I think Nomar should move down to 8th, its the only thing I can think of when I think about the batting order.

Say what you will about Pierre but as long as he is hitting, he needs to be up in the 2 spot. Loney should bat 3rd, followed by Kent, it might be too soon but if Kemp is playing, bat him 5th, followed by Martin or Gonzalez. It wouldn't bother me if Russell batted 7th, if he comes up early in the game, there are men on base, a situation that he does well in, if leads off or bats second in the inning, he could still try to steal a base. But most first innings, he can relax and not worry about going to the plate.

Thoughts?

Although it is extremely early in his carrier, Kemp may be the best No. 8 hitter in the history of the franchise. There is no way he should bat behind Garciaparra.

4- Keeping the guy who, when he's hitting, is OPSing .730 (over the last week, including tonight's 2/5) in the two spot would not be a high priority for me. Good for him is not the same as good. I like:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Kent
Lugo
Kemp
Betemit
Ethier
Pitcher

Gil Hodges batted 8th during stretches of his career in Brooklyn in the early 1950s.

I agree with 6 concerning which 8 should be starting. Don't care too much about the batting order, but it would be nice to see the weakest hitter bat lower in the lineup (perhaps 9th). But this dead horse has already be pummelled, right? vr, Xei

4. I would have moved Loney into the 3rd spot long ago. And I'd like to see Kemp bat no lower than 6th. Tonight when he had two strikes I tried to remember the last time I watched him strike out on a ball out of the strike zone. He seems to me to be showing much better pitch recognition lately.

Question -- is there a stat similar to OPS that takes into account stolen bases?

I figure if a guy hits a single and steals second base, it has the same basic effect as a double (given there's no one else on base who could have further advanced from a double...)

Even though the Dodgers lost, I wish I had been there. It sure sounded like an exciting game. Instead I was at Petco where Chris Young was absolutely dealing. (Actually too much. He made it pretty boring.) 7 combined hits. Go to a Dodger game and you get to see 35 or 40 hits!

But the most interesting phenomenon was the melancholy I felt caused by Trevor Hoffman coming out for the 9th in a 1-0 game. The distinctive music turned up, everyone rising to their feet as the anticipation builds. The jog to the mound while 40,000 cheering people hang on every pitch. I used to have that. Although the Pods are now our official our enemy, we do share one at least one thing with them--we know the thrill of a real closer. I stood there appreciating how much Trevor means to them and jealous that my team didn't have that anymore. I love Sammy as much as the next guy but its not the same and only a Padre or 2002-2004 Dodger knows what I'm talkin' about.

I'd just like to report that I saw no bilingual advertisements on any Dodger Stadium urinals this evening.

Goodnight.

10- Sort of. There's Secondary Average ( http://www.athomeplate.com/secondary.shtml ). There are also numbers like VORP and Runs Created, that factor in base stealing.

When is Grady gonna realize that he needs to play Kemp and Betemit every day? Especially Kemp. I mean, come on. He's part of the Bison class, automatically giving him +10 boosts to strength, dexterity, wisdom, charisma, intelligence, AND constitution. And don't get me started on his Saving Throws....

Anyway, I don't care about the batting order as much as who gets in the line-up. Lead-off with Betemit. Hit Furcal at #4. I don't care. Just get Kemp and Betemit playing every day. Along with LuGo, Ethier, Furcal, Kent, Loney, and Martin.

"Both clubs have changed hitting coaches in recent weeks -- Bill Mueller for the Dodgers and Howard Johnson for the Mets -- and judging by 22 runs on 35 hits, it's working. Nine different Mets scored runs, and seven drove them in. Ten Dodgers had hits." Ken Gurnick/MLB.Com

Now looks like a change is in order for a Pitching Coach? While we're talking about changes, how about a new 3rd base coach to improve on our idiotic base-running!

From the comments at Where Have You Gone Andy van Slyke:

"In a few weeks, [Izturis will] be playing center and batting cleanup. Bank on it."

16
Book it.

14 - Yeah, but what's his THACO?

Don't you have to be chaotic neutral for the Bison class?

And seeing "Lugo" in someone's lineup brings back bad memories.

That was about as much fun as I've had at a game where the visitors scored 13 runs. At no point did we seem out of it. 2 terrible base running misktakes at 3rd base may have cost us the way we were hitting the ball. Sure we glad we have these veterans around to show the kids how to run the bases.

With the two hits yesterday Nomar's OPS at home is 797, his OPS+ is 112. By the end of the weekend his home OPS will be over 800. I don't think everyone here has grasped that we are looking at two complete different hitters. The man is getting on base at a 400 clip at home. He is not a liability but an asset at that rate.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=garcino01&year=2007

21. He is only an asset at home if he outperforms the person who would be replacing hims. Wilson Betemit is getting on base at nearly the same rate as Nomar at home (.398 vs. .394) and substantially outslugging him (.399 vs. .543) at Dodger stadium.

See update above about Saito having shoulder soreness.

in a way you kind of want some of these guys to implode Stults, Hernandez guys like that so we can see Meloan in Dodger blue sooner rather than later.

24. Not really, no. While I'd like to see Meloan as soon as possible, there is enough risk of injury to someone else (see Saito's shoulder), that even if everyone does well, there is a very strong possibility that we will be seeing Meloan sooner rather than later.

22
Wilson also loves hitting at home. A career OPS of 780 but 870 at home and 710 on the road. He's taken that to a new level this year with his 937. As hot as Wilson has been you won't get any arguement from me that he shouldn't be starting only that Nomar is not the complete cipher that everyone is making him out to be when the games are played at home.

23

i'm sure it's nothing & i'm actually hoping the training staff gives Saito the extra day off. Bump up Broxton see how he handles it i know he hasn't faired to well in the past but it couldn't hurt to test him in the closer roll again.

26

TC you were at the game did Donnelly send Kent & Nomar or did they act alone? i'm almost positive Donnelly sent them.

26. I agree. Personally, I think Nomar could do well as a good utility man, especially if his performance this year is partly due to his previous injuries making his body act like it is 10 years older than it is.

I would lilke Grady to make out a weekly lineup and post it. That way everybody knows when they play and that lineup should rotate Pierre, Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier, Betemit, Nomar giving all equal playing time.

I can see a player getting thrown out trying to tag up from second on a fly ball to center if the throw goes directly to third, but a relay throw? That's like Pierre throwing someone out.

26
I have no idea, I love agressive baserunning just not fond of it when it is being done by guys who get slower with each step they take.

the thing that rubbed me the wrong way was that Donnelly saw Glavine wasn't throwing strikes yet he chose to sent them & TO 3RD BASE NO LESS! one of them was the 3rd out at 3rd base if i remember correctly. This needs to be addressed i'm serious.

I didn't watch one second of the game last night. I was listening to most of it on radio though, as I had to pick someone up at the airport.

I was 100% convinced Kemp would hit a grand slam in the 3rd inning when it was 9-5. It was a cool feeling to have, even if he didn't actually hit a homer. Kemp might as well be Pedro Guerrero circa June 1985; that's how confident I am in him right now.

I thought Betemit should have pinch hit for Lowe instead of Saenz, but I agree with Bob's reasoning from last night's thread that Betemit and Ethier were saved because of their dual value (hitting and fielding flexibility) for later in the game. Saenz has struggled this season, but I still have the feeling he's going to run into one when he's up to bat.

With the bullpen usage of late, we might get to see Meloan's Dodger debut on Saturday!

With Abreu back in the minors I'd like to see Betemit get some starts at 2B when Kent rests, instead of Ramon Martinez. Betemit could also get some games spelling Furcal at SS. As for the OF logjam, I don't see a solution. The one guy who should sit most (Pierre) is the one who Grady sits least, and I don't see that changing. It is possible that LuGo will get more days off as the season goes on, though.

35

i've been told that Pierre has been swinging a hot bat lately & Gonzalez has been a nice bridge for the kids, i really hope Ned doesn't sign him to another year though.

33 - Third base coach doesn't have a ton of influence on sending runs to third, does he? Both those runners should be held accountable for their decisions, and not Donnelly. Those were just moronic baserunning decisions. Nomar's seemed far more egregious, considering it was the 3rd out. Kent was trying to get to 3rd with only 1 out, at least.

I looked up Pedro Guerrero's 1985 splits just to reminisce, and was shocked to find his July was even better than June!

June: 15 HR in 110 PA, .344/.436/.860
July: 4 HR in 80 PA, .460/.563/.794

Guerrero was the real 1985 MVP.

You'd think by now even a brief ancestral-memory would be enough to remind the whole darn team--with or without the encouragement of Rich Donnelly--not to run on the Mets, no?

10 - it would seem to me one could simply take his SBs - CS, then add those points to his total bases, which would be used to calculate SLG.

Base hit + Stolen base = Double = 2.000 SLG

Base hit + Caught Stealing = Out = 0.000 SLG

JP currently has 138 total bases in 403 ABs for a SLG of .342 (B-R). If we add his 38 SBs, then subtract his 9 CS, we get a new "Total Bases" equal to 167, which yields an SLG of .414.

They look at Donnelly for guidance let's not pretend he doesn't boch (sp) some calls.

40 Except it's not a true SLG, as a "normal" .414 SLG would advance more runners than slappy has.

41 - It was Kent and Nomar, both old, slow veterans; they have to both know better. Rounding third, yeah, you have to trust your coach. Rounding second, you need to have game situation in mind and recognize the play in front of you, and make a better decision.

i'm listing to fantasy411 there talking to the Cardinals beat writer & wow what a nightmare season the Red Birds are having.

42 - good point!

EQA factors in stolen bases.

As do win shares.

Albert better enjoy his WS ring, it will be the last one he gets while with the Cardinals.

Since I started working again I forgot how much I love Friday's. Tomko will pitch the best game of the week tonight.

as does linear weights.
vr, Xei

49 - "Since I started working again I forgot how much I love Friday's."

What will you be having? Perhaps the Parmesan-Crusted Sicilian Quesadillas?

http://www.fridays.com/menu/index.htm

Sorry, but there is no such thing as a Sicilian Quesadilla, nor a bruschetta salsa. Friday's is off their rocker.

49,51 I always liked Flingers better.

I just wanted to echo what TC said earlier. That game was so much fun, it really didn't even sting that we lost. And since my pal is almost 0-life when he goes to see his Mets at DS, it was nice for him.

He thought the scoreboard was messed up when he saw Nomar's robust .332 slugging pct. Alas, it was not broken (sigh).

I wish Matt kemp would just be penciled in daily the way Pierre is. Kemp is so fun to watch. Are you all comfortable with a Pierre/Kemp Ethier OF for next year? (I am on the Kemp/Ethier part) If not (and I am being realistic) then maybe we move Ethier for a Starter and worry about LF in the offseason?

I don't condone Kent's baserunning, but it did take a perfect throw from Green, and an even better step towards the throw and tag by Wright to get him. If that throw was even slightly off, he was safe.

That relay throw play was awesome. Beltran caught it, hosed up, and threw a bullet home. But the plan all along appeared to be to cut it and go to third. Baiting the runner to go third and then cutting it. Anyway, it was a nice play by the Mets.

The Dodgers team OPS+ finally hit the 100 mark after last night's game (league average). Combined with their 111 ERA+, they are one of four teams average or above in both OPS and ERA:

Dodgers 100 / 111
Mets 107 / 106
Brewers 112 / 106
Braves 107 / 101

51 "So can I get you gentlemen something more to drink? Or maybe something to nibble on? Some Pizza Shooters, Shrimp Poppers, or Extreme Fajitas?"

I have always wondered what a Pizza Shooter would look like.

42 Pierre's slappy .414 slug is probably more valuable than a normal slugging percentage. Since slug rates extra base hits too highly (four singles is worth a lot more than home run, according to linear weights, it means the difference of about one whole run), collecting lots of singles to build up your slug means more than the occasional big blast.

61 - (four singles is worth a lot more than home run, according to linear weights, it means the difference of about one whole run)

That's a really under-discussed point. That certainly tilts some of the discussion in Pierre's favor.

{56}

yeah Green made a pretty sick throw i kind of admired it for a second or two.

55 Are you all comfortable with a Pierre/Kemp Ethier OF for next year?

I would actually be OK with that THIS year. I don't think we would lose much by trading Gonzo and installing Ethier in his place. You might lose a little on offense, but you might not, and any less offense could be mitigated by the improved defense. And it would clear the way for Kemp to own RF.

No chance we'll do this, but I wish they'd consider it.

four singles is worth a lot more than home run

True, but you're comparing four PAs vs. one. One HR is worth more than one single. If you mean four singles in four PAs are worth more than one HR and three outs in 4 PAs, then I guess that might be true, but that seems to be where OBP comes into play.

Sometimes I feel about DT like Todd Rungren feels about his drum.

I dont want to work
I want to bang on the drum all day
I dont want to play
I just want to bang on the drum all day

But alas work calls

Hi Ho Hi Ho it is off to work we go

http://www.laetusinpraesens.org/docs/workreen.php

Wow

65 Yeah, I meant that four singles is worth more than a home run and three outs. However, one home run without the outs is still worth less than the four singles by about .25 runs.

67
one home run without the outs is still worth less than the four singles by about .25 runs

Do you mean a solo home run...?

68 I mean the average home run, which is worth about 1.3 runs.

Yeah me too 64 although there should be something said for Gonzo's leadership. I know, I know it's subjective again but from quotes and from what I see he seems like a real good guy to have around the young guys as long as he continues to produce reasonably well. But him as our fourth OF is fine if JP has to be one of the top 3.

I was at the game last night with 20 co-workers and many were impressed that Pierre led the team in hits. All I could come up with on the spot was "yeah but..."

71 The immediate reply needs to be "and he leads the majors in outs."

If you say it like Dolph Lundgren in the movie "I Come in Peace", even better! ("...and you go in pieces")

71 72 Ah! My work ain't been in vain for nothin'!

73 It's hard enough explaining OBP to the average beachball whacker, let alone its inverse outs/PA. But I do admire your populist efforts.

[ongoing]

So we can kinda sorta consider Pierre's slugging to be .414 once we add his stolen bases and subtract his caught stealings. And because all his hits are singles, we can, strangely enough, consider that .414 SLG to be more valuable than an "average" .414 SLG, if I'm putting that right.

Question: does that make Pierre a valuable player? Does he hit enough singles to deserve to keep his job?

New to the blog, love the insight that gets tossed around here.

Pitching has seemingly become the liability on our team.
My questions are: Who is our best possible trade deadline pick-up without compromising any of our "untouchables" (Martin, Broxton, Loney, Kemp, maybe Ethier) and will that pick-up be enough to make us a legitimate threat if we make the postseason?

I seem to think Jason Jennings would be our best possibility, I think the guy has gotten a pretty bad wrap as he has pitched extensively as a #1 and in 2 launching pads. Plus sinkerballers have a pretty good track record at Chavez. Any thoughts?

75
Among other things, one problem with what you're doing is that you're adjusting Pierre's stats while holding other players' stats constant. If you're gonna adjust one player's stats, you gotta adjust them all.

75 According to linear weights, Pierre was only slight below average last year (two runs below average) which probably puts him close to the average center fielder offensively. Depending on what you think of his defense, he ranges from an average player to a below average one. He'll have to get his on base percentage into the .340s to get to his "almost average" status, but if he does, he's not a terrible player if you ignore his contract.

76 For a sinker ball pitcher, he doesn't get many ground balls. His ground ball percentage is only 38.7% this year which gives him a ground ball to fly ball ratio under one.

76 I like Jennings, but I'm interested to see what kind of salary he gets. He's not having a great year, he's had some injury issues, and there was word that Houston would balk at offering him more than the $10 mil a year or so he was projected to get (also, it was widely known that the Texas boy preferred to stay in the Lone Star State).

76 Jennings road numbers haven't been so hot either. He still appears to have shoulder problems and appears regularly in Will Carroll's under the knife column.

76 More about Jennings - in his last 7 starts his ERA is 6.3 and his WHIP is a horrid 1.75. My guess would be that he's hurt, and I'd stay away for now.

I think batting average has shifted from the most overrated stat in the game to underrated, at least in some circles. Slugging percentage is a strange mutant stat that gives the illusion being descriptive but is fairly arbitary at its core. OBP does what it says, and what it does is very important, but it overvalues walks. Put them together and you can usually get a good idea of total hitting value, but I think OPS does a poor job of accounting for a player like Pierre, whose value is all singles and speed. For a player batting second on an NL team I think batting average might be the single best conventional stat to measure offensive value.

Speaking of sinkerballers and injuries. Is anyone concerned with Lowe or did he just 'not have it' last night? I guess his velocity and everything was fine, he was just getting hit like crazy. Maybe he partied a bit too much the night before.

78, 79, 80, 81 Thats good stuff there, I knew he DLed earlier this year, but it looks as if he never fully recovered. So is there a good solution for us out there or are we just damned to having Hendrickson as our #5?

84- Best case (for me), we have Schmidt, Lowe, Penny, Wolf, Billingsley, so I think there are options.

85 Unfortunately, I don't see how Schmidt can be included on that list (at least for '07)... which leaves us -- best case -- with 4 starters, one of whom has had injury concerns. Stults/Houlton/Hendrickson/Tomko have not given any indication that they can be a solid #5. (Maybe Tomko gets in one of his rare crazy grooves, but I wouldn't want to bet on it).

Who throws tomorrow? I think I'm going to be at the game.

86 yeah, I had '08 on the brain.

87 Penny, making up 1/2 of the marquee fox game match up.

84 The Twins seem like the ideal trade partner. Their DH & 3B are both slugging <.350. Also Luis Castillo at 2b is a FA this fall. So they could use Betemit and/or Abreu. They have a lot of young starting pitching. The guy I like a lot is Scott Baker.

87 Brad Penny v. Jorge Sosa

76 also, I don't really think a new #5 pitcher will really be a factor in the playoffs (when rotations shorten), except out of the bullpen.

90 A rumored deal last year was Aybar for Baker, FWIW. I don't suppose they'd give up Garza. :)

'08 looks good if Schmitty can bounce back but if we don't find a decent solution for #5 this year, I'm afraid our bullpen is gonna start getting too worn down and we need them if we're going to go anywhere in the postseason.

D. Young Minor league OPS
888,923,875,845,836,783,994
J. Loney Minor League OPS
1081,744,737,641,776,972
M. Kemp Minor League OPS
644,829,973,918,927,978 (Wow)

Why isn't D.Young rated higher as a prospect? Toycannon has been mentioning how well he is doing this year. He has a solid track record in the minors, hitting-wise. He has been a better hitter than Loney. Is he a terrible outfielder? I understand he was a bad 2cnd baseman. I saw him play in Sacramento and he smoked the ball more than a few times (as did John Lindsey).

I don't see his name mentioned much as a future starting outfielder and I am wondering why.

83

He goes threw stretches of sucketude & this month seems to be the month were he ain't very good, no worries he'll be back on track.

90 Baker would be a good option, but are the Twinkies willing to part ways? If so, we should pull the trigger on that one.

93 Hmmm missed that one. I found a post Nate made on Sickel's site a year ago. Just replace Aybar with Betemit and it still makes a lot of sense.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/6/27/2500/63716

95 Isn't his K/BB ratio in Vegas something atrocious? Last time I checked it was in the 5:1 territory.

95

you'd think part of the problem is he plays in a hitter friendly ball park & ins't a 25+ projectable homerun power hitter.

95 Strikes out too much, was pretty bad last year, and 25 year olds in AAA don't get too much respect.

Baker's minor league numbers are sweet:
439ip, 367k, 93bb, 2.97era, 1.11whip, 29HR

His FIP era this year is 4.10 vs. 5.32 actual which would a) make him come cheaper and b) make for an entertaining Josh Rawitch press release (8th best road righthander under 30 in the AL).

95 if he'd stayed in 2nd base & had a decent enough glove it would have increased his value, ToyCannon knows more about the kid i think.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6477

Jennings was in Will Carroll's column today:

"He's done," the source told me after watching Jason Jennings pitch. A very knowledgeable man that I trust on pitching, he thinks that Jennings' shoulder is "catching," reducing his velocity and changing his mechanics enough to reduce movement. He also doesn't believe that Jennings made any improvement after a DL stint, implying that there's more going on inside the arm. Jennings' results back up this assertion, and point to perhaps another period on the DL in the near future. With Jennings' impending free agency, it will be curious how the Astros handle this. Will they acknowledge their trade for Jennings didn't work, or will they try to get whatever they can from him in a season that's lost?

82 - Why is batting average more useful than slugging percentage, or a combination of slugging percentage and on-base percentage? I'm not following the argument.

Maybe it's been mentioned, but shouldn't you subtract two bases for every caught stealing to figure out some sort of adjusted slging percentage for pierre, or even three if, say, he is caught stealing third after a bunt double? Anyhow, glad to have found this site. I'm starved for dodger food and stuck in sacramento.

106 Stats like EQA and linear weights already perform this adjustment.

TOAST OF THE TOWN: 51s' home run continues

>>> Leadoff batter Wilson Valdez extended his hitting streak to 14 games with the first of six straight two-out hits in the second inning, Chin-Lung Hu and Delwyn Young teamed to go 6-for-9 with seven runs scored, and Marshall McDougall finished a triple shy of hitting for the cycle.

"We've got some guys going, and it's contagious right now," Las Vegas manager Lorenzo Bundy said. "Everybody's swinging the bat extremely well." <<<

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/8620417.html

I still want to know why we haven't called up Meloan yet, especially now with the pen being gassed and needing all the help it can get. It makes a lot of sense to me to see if we can solve our problems internally before giving up some talent and a couple million dollars potentially getting it outside the organization. Especially since we've had great success recently filling holes from within the organization.

Dodgers are unsettled on Wolf's return

>>> Although it is extremely tentative, the target date for injured left-hander Randy Wolf to return to the Dodgers' starting rotation appears to be Aug. 1. <<<

http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6419506

So, Harry Potter fans...
Since this is an open forum with non-threaded topics, I think we should agree that we shouldn't post spoilers in our comments, unless we can somehow hide them so virgin eyes will not be... you know.

Scott Baker is due to pitch Tuesday, so he can go Weds in Tomko's spot. The Google spider should now have enough occurences of this rumor here to spread it like wildfire.

Jon, did you know that "Where Have You Gone AVS?" is having a ballpark get-together the same day as DT?

Serendipity, of a sort.

95 101
Thanks for the info. I noticed he doesn't walk much and that he strikes out a fair amount too (last year 100ish SO/40ish BB). 25 is pretty old to be in AAA. I remember comparisons to one of the older Snakes' OF prospects earlier this year.

Still, is it fair to say he has potential to hit 300+ and slug 475 in the majors? He has hit every year and at every level except last year when he was learning a new position. This year he is hitting 347 and slugging 603 in 363 ABs. Couldn't he at least match what LuGo is doing in left while playing better defense?

I would like to see him get a shot next year when LuGo is let go and Pierre is moved to the bench (I know this is wishful thinking but he could at least platoon a bit in right and left field).

105 If you're looking for one stat to measure offense for all players OPS is obviously superior. OPS is still a pretty awkward cobbled together stat though. SLG is significantly overrated in the calculation, especially for hitter at the top of an NL lineup, who won't have many runners to drive in, and especially for a basestealer who can advance himself on singles. OBP alone might be more useful measure than OPS for a leadoff hitter, but OBP doesn't give any credit for the extra value of hits over walks. As you move up the order the hits have more value. My (admitedly unscientific) theory is that the 2 hole in an NL lineup represents a balance where the power of SLG isn't yet important enough to justify it's shortcomings, and the value of singles over walks starts to undermine the use of OBP alone.

Hence, I think BA is as useful as OPS or OBP for measuring Pierre. If you believe regfairfield that linear weights found Pierre to be close to an average hitter last season despite a pitiful OPS you have to be open to the idea Pierre slips through the cracks of that measure somehow.

111 Greystach dies at the end.

113 Maybe we can subtitle our DT day, "Why didn't Lasorda pitch to Andy Van Slyke?"

115 Lofton had a .272 EQA last year to Pierre's .249. There would have to be a lot of crack slipping to explain that big of a gap. In Pierre's case his OBP is essentially (singles + walks)/PA. Even if a lot of his would be walks become singles, the end result is still well below avg OBP. His .280-ish AVG just tells me that he puts the ball in play a lot and beats out close plays. He's still jogging back to the dugout 68% of the time.

113 - Not the same place, I take it.

118
I don't recall Pierre get an inordinate amount of infield hits. Most of his grounders are to the right side, which are tough for anyone except for the 1979 Willie Wilson or Ichiro to beat out.

118 There would have to be a lot of crack slipping to explain that big of a gap.

If this site turns into Plumber Thoughts, I'm leaving.

118 Would you agree that the average homerun or double hit by a 4th or 5th spot hitter has more value than the average homerun or double hit by a 1st or 2nd spot NL hitter? If so, then maybe a .249 EQA doens't have the same meaning throughout the order, let alone OPS which already overrates SLG.

121 I am impressed by Mike Diamond's good-smelling plumber guarantee.

120 Bob Timmermann

How about Herb Washington? Oh, that's right. He has 33 life time runs scored and no at bats. But, if he could hit the ball...

Need a plumber?
Call Jack Stephanovich.
Stephen. Jaaaack Stephen.

118 By the way, I'm not disputing that .280ish BA Pierre falls short of acceptable. He needs to be closer to .300, which historically is where he is. But even at .280 I don't think he's quite the vortex of suck that others believe he is.

NL West cornering market on pitching, talent

>>> You can make the argument that the best young talent in the NL West is in Los Angeles, where James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton play key roles, and Russell Martin is an All-Star at age 24. <<<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19859875

Maybe the Dodgers are planning to do with Meloan what the Angels did with F. Rodriguez in 2002.

126 Would you prefer .280/.310/.350 to .250/.350/.350? Guy #2 will have fewer singles and more XBH, but I'm going with that guy in the #2 hole or any hole.

7. Memory says that was rare, especially
'53 and later. Campy, in his off years ('52 and '54) during MVP run, more frequently.
22. Great example of need for choosing stat-mix carefully, and honoring all surrounding features of landscape.
73. Great phrase from Sports Journaliers'
NNNever TTToo FFFat BBBible. Send to T. Jackson, et al, and a certain guy at SI:-).
82. Thoughtful little snacker. Some day, when I have time....
83. Wrote a few days ago that D's have to find guys to make winning contris in face of almost necessary declines of Penny/Lowe/
Saito/Martin/Gonzales after great impacts in first half. Kids have to come faster and harder than I had predicted/hoped.
On the other hand, this looks like another year for an Accidental Run (sorry, 'Drew) -
like Cardinals' last.

Steve Dilbeck has a nice piece on Andre today, but includes the too-soon-shopworn
notion that the D's are ready to dominate as an org in the near future. For that to happen, either some miracles from aging group (the great young hopes of April are now, at different levels, very much head-scratchers), or the acquisition, by Ned and Company, of two or three VERY GOOD ARMS from outside (in keeping with my skepticism about Marzano and Friend's enthusiasm for the "best starting staff in league"
back then) in the next season or two. What, in the sum of their dealings to date, would give an unbiased observer any confidence it will happen?

Chris Young has allowed 5 earned runs in 62 innings at Petco (0.73 ERA). That's disgusting.

129 I'd go with #2. A .310 OBP with no power is never acceptable. Maybe I should clarify that when I'm judging Pierre based on his history I'm expecting a .340 OBP that's heavy in batting avereage, which is pretty good. I've been using that as a basis since the begining of the season, but I guess enough of this season has passed that I need to revise that. I guess .330 is a more realistic projection now, which is getting pretty marginal. Still, I stick to my assertion that OPS is a poor way to judge him, and OBP has to taken with his batting average in mind.

122 No. That only matters for the FIRST inning, where the lead-off hitter is no. 1 in the batting order. Later innings depend entirely on who (which absolute number in the start-off order) leads off an inning.

Perhaps someone has done the number-crunching that shows that no.1 (absolute) is leadoff more times than a statistical average 1/9, but without that, absolute batting order really doesn't matter. (And you're only going to get no. 1 starting off the 4th inning again when there have been 3 innings of 3 up-and-down or caught stealing/double play, etc. meaning no score, so it doesn't matter in these cases anyway.)

Relative order - the sequence of who comes after whom - does matter, except when leading off an inning (i.e. it doesn't matter who came "before" you in the previous inning) which, again, should more or less average out.

Cubbies winning 3-2 in the 8th against the D-Backs another nice start from Jason Marquis it seems like the Cubbies rolled the dice on him & it's paid off so far, good for them.

Just up at LAT:

Patience pays off for Dodgers hitters

>>> They're taking more pitches under Mueller, who doesn't take credit for offensive surge. <<<

http://tinyurl.com/2frp2j

111
Who is Keyser Soze?

I don't understand why a .340 OBP with a .300 avg is any different than a .340 OBP with a .200 Avg when were talking about guys who hit singles.

Why must we post the same articles that Jon posted on the main post (along with a comment) last night?

According to a study by Dave Smith of games from 1957-2005, the #2 and #3 hitters will lead off an inning less than any other slot in the order. Which does make sense since (barring someone batting out of order and getting away with) they are the only two batters who CANNOT lead off one inning, i.e. the first.

The most common leadoff hitters in each inning as identified by slot goes this way.
#1
#4
#8
#3
#8
#1
#7
#1
#6

Innings 7-9 are almost a random distribution.

If you want a real math-oriented approach, you can try this study by Tom Ruane and Mark Pankin.

http://retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/lineup_art.htm

the #2 and #3 hitters will lead off an inning less than any other slot in the order. Which does make sense since (barring someone batting out of order and getting away with) they are the only two batters who CANNOT lead off one inning, i.e. the first

This makes it sound as if other slots (e.g. 4-9) can lead off the first inning...

138. That's kind of a snotty way of pointing out that an article has already been posted. Was that really necessary?

ToyCannon becomes a blogger!

http://www.truebluela.com/story/2007/7/20/134824/101

137 A single is about .1 runs more valuable than a walk since they can advance runners.

[135] what doesn't make sense to me is the part about the dodgers taking more first pitch strikes. isn't that a BAD thing? doesn't that mean you let a pitch go by that was likely hittable, and you're now down in the count 0-1?

The 2 and 3 hitters cannot lead off the FIRST inning and only very rarely lead off the SECOND inning.

Does that meet with your approval?

In 137 I am not being smug I really don't understand. I guess the single has more value if there are runners on base but thats it right?

141 I was just writing and apology. No it wasnt necessary. Sorry about that Dodgers49. The tone of the post dosen't come across right at all. It was not neccesary.

woo, congrats toy cannon! i think you'll make a good ying to reg's yang. you two tend to have differing perspectives from what i can recall.

145
But the 4-9 hitters cannot lead off the FIRST inning either. Am I crazy here?

[147] er, that should be "yin", not ying.

148 I think the spirit of the idea is that 2-3 hitters cannot lead off an inning the first time through the order, while everyone else can.

142

i'm sure he'll do a dandy job, Andrew didn't mention when his 1st post was gonna be though?

I'm surprised nobody with a BP subscription has passed on this information yet. Kevin Goldstein has talked to some scouts about Chin-Lung Hu and Greg Miller. One scout said of Hu:

"He's definitely an everyday shortstop in the big leagues for me. I think he's going to hit .290 or so with around 15 home runs a year, and he does it all defensively. At very least he will be solid, but he might be an All-Star as well."

A second scout said of Hu:

"He's just really come on this year. He's bigger and stronger and he's always had good hitting instincts, but now he's driving balls."

A scout said of Miller:

"I've seen him up to 95-97 MPH, but depending on when you see him, he either has it or he doesn't -- not just game-to-game but inning-to-inning. He could be a great lefty set-up guy -- hell, he could close with that stuff -- but there's no way you can put him in right now with the game on the line."

Another scout said of Miller:

"I've seen the 94-97 MPH, and I've seen the command issues, but he's still really interesting to me because he's still left-handed, and even though it seems like he has been around forever, he's still only 22. What I wonder about is where he stands in the organization; he used to be great, but he's never been healthy or good under the current regime."

The remark about the "current regime" at the end -- Logan White is of course part of that regime, so whatever Colletti thinks about Miller is likely to be heavily influenced by White.

142. Great news for Toy Cannon and True Blue LA. I guess I am too late with my counter offer and will have to go after a lesser name like CanuckDodger. vr, Xei

150
Oh. I get it now.

111)

Once I pick up the book, I will not be looking up anything online until I complete the book.

125)

I actually saw a Jack Stephan van this week.

151 His first post is up

152
Thanks Canuck you just killed my 2nd story which was just about to go up. Man you have to be fast around here.

Not that I'm trolling but Regfairfield has graciously asked me to help out over at http://www.truebluela.com/ and so I've put out my first ever post. I think Jon asked Andrew if there was a way to get rid of my wordy comments and this was the plan they came up with. Anyway if you have time, check it out and remember it was a virgin post from a man who flunked English in college and only graduated because he was able to hack the simple college systems back in the day when punch cards were still being used. Not that most of you have any clue what a punch card is.

157 I think we learned about punch cards in our "Ancient Civilizations" class.

157 - LOL, I had nothing to do with pushing you over there - I only wish I could claim credit.

I thought punch cards were for the bus.

I was just thinking about something that I wanted to pose as a question to everyone here.

It seems like all year long we (or at least many of you) have been ahead of Grady and Ned and the Dodgers as far as decisions go. It seems like they often follow advice weeks to months after it's given by Jon or other blogs or commenters here. For the most part, they have all turned out to be successes.

My question is, is it possible that the reason for the successes may have been a result of the waiting in the first place? Maybe Kemp and Loney benefited from some additional time in AAA. Particularly pertinent right now, couldn't it only help Meloan if he gets a little time in AAA? I'm not sure I've formed an opinion on this one yet, but I'm curious what people think.

161
Pretty much impossible to answer that question, but I do not think their extra time really matters. Dominating AA is a great sign that a prospect may be ready. I think the reason we want Meloan in there is the fact that the front office is clearly looking for bullpen help, but the answer may be right in front of them so why are we wasting time, money, and potentially players.

Kemp was ready, because he made the team out of spring training, but got hurt. I do not think Loney's time in AAA helped him at all. He dominated the league to the point that it was just pointless for him to be there. In addition, we were not getting good production from the first base spot.

So in my opinion the additional time did not help, but I can't prove it.

Out of respect and appreciation for the Dodgers' uniform tailor, I think we should avoid Jennings at all costs, regardless of his stealth status. The poor guy already has to custom make pants for Billingsley and Broxton, it we add another guy with abnormally large hips I think that might push his workload beyond a reasonable level.

162 Pretty much impossible to answer that question

Yeah it is...but I've seen DT commenters answer the impossible before...which is why I asked. :)

I am sure this has been done much more rigorously elsewhere, but I once estimated the average expected runs to score numbers once for walks vs. singles, based on Average number of runs scored statistics that one can relatively easily find:

Walk Single
Bases empty 0.6 0.6
Man on 1st 1.01 1.18
Man on 2nd 1.01 1.51
Man on 3rd 1.23 1.6
Man on 1+2 1.63 2.04
Man on 2+3 1.63 2.51
Bases loaded 2.63 3.04

The rough assumption was 75% chance a runner already on base advances two bases on a single, 25% only one. This is probably fine for 2nd, but obviously wrong for 1st, but it is too much trouble to go back and fix now. Still, I think it has only a minor effect on the results.

As I said, rough, but I thought I would share as the subject came up...

The Diamondbacks won again. Is it safe to call them done (as a threat for the divison) at this point?

166 No.

152 So what is the opinion of Hu? I've read that he's a gold glove no hit short stop but he has ripped the cover off the ball at Jacksonville and Vegas this year. So who does he project as:
A. Cesar Izturis
B. Omar Vizquel
C. Barry Larkin

Sorry, I meant the D'backs lost again and have been starting to drift away.

What are the chances Hu plays second next year and then moves over to short after Furcal leaves?

168
A little from column A, a little from column B.

If the argument is that Pierre is underrated in the slugging department because of his speed, that you are claiming his singles get turned into doubles because of his stolen bases that still has a problem. He can do that with a walk, which he doesn't do very often. He can turn walks into doubles too. I realize this is anecdotal but it sure looks like a decent chunk of his singles are not the kind that would score somebody from second. If he's an asset on the bases because of his speed that means he needs to be on base more, no matter how he gets there.

New post on top.

166 Not according to all the publications who keep touting them as the sleeper team in the NL West.

I'm all for pimping prospects, but I think the D-Backs were deluding themselves if they thought they could count on THAT many youngsters and still compete for the division. All this playing time will really help for years to come, but just because a bunch of guys on the field have the potential to be great doesn't mean they'll all achieve that greatness immediately (if ever).

138. Why must we post the same articles that Jon posted on the main post

That was a mistake on my part. Sorry. I actually check every comment on DT (even the 600+ comment threads) but went by that link in Jon's heading while reading. You're right. It shouldn't have happened.