Joe Sheehan says he "loves" the Jones' contract and calls it the best move any team will make this winter.

Also, Sheehan says that Nate Silver has done Jones' 2008 PECOTA as a Dodger: .258/.345/.488, with 29 HR's.

I like the Joe Sheehan take much better.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6977

This was not a day when something this big should have happened. I actually have work to do.

1/2 - Just as I was adding it to my post - we all found it at the same time, I think.

Jones' 2008 PECOTA as a Dodger: .258/.345/.488

Probably no better than Kemp, or Ethier for that matter. And certainly not worthy of the 5th highest salary in MLB history. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like Cody Ross puts up those numbers.

"he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him (only one outfielder with more than a month of experience in the Majors - Ethier)."

We should take a look back. Kenny Lofton was available and everybody knew that this season there was going to be some valueable center fielders hitting free agency.

4 Some allowance needs to be made that he plays CF.

I'm just worried that Pecota is predicting < 840 OPS, so no ToyCannon comments in October 2008.

What exactly is the hope for a "bounce back" year?

Joe Sheehan is a stat oriented guy, and most of the stats suggest that Andruw Jones is in a decline phase right now. Even his periperhals from last year were bad, and backed up his dismal OBP/SLG/OPS line. He's hitting warning track fly balls instead of homers.

I think this deal is full of upside, as its at least possible Andruw Jones can be a difference maker, but to just say "he'll bounce back" which isnt based on anything but hope seems wishful thinking.

A platoon of Werth/Ross likely gets you what Andruw Jones will get at 1/5th price.

If Pierre is dealt, and the OF is Jones/Ethier/Kemp--> then its a great move. Dealing Kemp/Ethier, and sticking with Jones/Pierre is simply re-arranging furniture, with slightly better pitching (assuming something good is bought using Ethier/Kemp).

Does Ned calling up Pierre and not Kemp/Ethier mean anything? Other than that Juan Pierre is a high-priced free agent and Kemp/Ethier are not? Perhaps he's calling to say, "Yup. You're the 4th outfielder now. Gotta take one for the team. Merry Christmas."

From Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com (behind the pay wall I think):

"There are rumblings in Nashville that the $36.2 million deal for Andruw Jones was Scott Boras' way of making sure that Jones' contract exceeds Torii Hunter's contract in average annual value. Jones will make $18.1 million a season compared to Hunter's $18 million per year with the Angels."

Some allowance needs to be made that he plays CF

True. An .833 OPS would have ranked 6th among 15 qualifying centerfielders last season, behind such luminaries as Rowand and Hunter.

In fact, Andruw ranked 10th.

That Hardball Times article on Jones linked above is really worth a look.

4
Sure if he had 100 at bats. Give him 500 at bats and he'd have a sub 300 OBP. Anybody can look special in limited at bats.
You might want to run the numbers on how many centerfielders post an OPS > 833 that play everyday. In 2007 there were 6. If A Jones does hit his Pecota and you throw in his defense he would probably only be behind Beltran/Sizemore/Granderson in overall value.

9
If were Ned, I would have gone no higher than $35.99999999.

Which of these recent free agent outfielder signings would be considered the worst?

Soriano - 8 years, $136 million (17 per) -- career OPS .844
C. Lee - 6 years, $100 million (16.7 per) -- career OPS .841
Hunter - 5 years, $90 million (18 per) -- career OPS .793
A. Jones - 2 years, $36.2 million (18.1 per) -- career OPS .839

Factoring in defense you would have to consider Jones the best overall player out of the four. His yearly salary is barely higher than the other three, so having it be for far less years makes it easily the best contract in my eyes.

You could claim that based on last year's stats he doesn't deserve anything close to $18M a year, but it's not like it has been a long-term downward trend:

2003 - .851 OPS
2004 - .833
2005 - .922
2006 - .894
2007 - .724

last year definitely seems to be the statistical outlier, whether it was because of a nagging injury or him pressing too hard in his walk year.

Will Dodger Stadium let Andruw hit more homers than Turner Field?

It's so fitting that all those GMs picked Hunter over Jones. It's interesting to note: I was intrigued to compare Jones and Hunter all year in 2008, and it is remarkably convenient to have them play on teams in the same market!

last year definitely seems to be the statistical outlier, whether it was because of a nagging injury or him pressing too hard in his walk year

Or his age.
He's an old 30 in terms of MLB years.

I hope Kobe doesnt have a fall off around 28/29.

How much of Jones down year last year have to do with his health, or not being 100%? What are the feelings about that? I still really feel like this is a great deal, especially when you look at the list overkill posts above. Anyway, we've all said it - if this relegates Pierre to the bench or another team, it's a particularly fantastic move. I guess even if Pierre's starting occasionally but not always (and I think Joe Torre would lean that way because he's less worried about feelings than Grady was) then even that improves the team. My only disagreement with Sheehan is that I don't think this brings the Dodgers a little bit closer to the DBacks, I think they have to been seen as pretty darned even (and frankly, I thought that before this deal).

As this video shows, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre are not unfamiliar with each other:

http://www.trolleydodger.com/2007/12/06/oh-the-irony/

It's a scary world when 30 is considered old, even in sports terms. Heck, I'm 37 and still playing soccer as well as I ever did. (Which is to say, not all that well. But healthy and still with a quick step!)

10 The CF who no longer exists was 20th. There is a cost to improving through free agency. I get that you disagree with the cost of the contract, but this does significantly improve the team over other alternatives.

Juan Pierre + 10 Mil + Meloan

for

Padilla

This seems like a good move for both teams. Padilla HR/9 rate would fall away from the unfriendly confines of being in Texas around all those crazy hicks, and the switch to the NL couldn't hurt. He'd be a decent 5th starter for us, at least better then Loiza in my minds eye.

8 Nobody else is reading anything in the "Ned tries to call Juan" comment?

FWIW, in Buster Olney's column, he cites a mysterious "National League Executive" as saying the Nomar's not only competing for a position in spring training, but that he's competing for a spot on the roster and that he may be cut.

I believe Andruw Jones has a flashing red light on his palm and he's headed to Carousel.

Every time he tries to run, a sandman will try to shoot him.

23 Juan Pierre is the centerfielder. Coletti just signed a centerfielder. Neither Ethier nor Kemp are centerfielders (of course they could be, blah blah).

If he's calling anyone, who would it be?

Also Padilla's lefthandedness would balance our rotation.

Juan Pierre in Texas could boost his home run total to... one.

27 - Vincente Padilla is RH, I believe.

23. Just that Pierre was the CF and no longer is the CF.

This was asked in the previous thread, but is anyone tracking Ken Rosenthal's predictions over the past week? Was he right about anything? Anything at all? I really hope the Dodgers are reading his columns - and doing the opposite of everything. "He says we should trade Matt Kemp. So we'll trade Pierre! Check."

Padilla does throw righthanded, yep. Still, if he gives us a Pierre Out, I'm for it.

20--Its not that he's 30, its because he's been in the big leagues since he was 19 and has played just about everyday. Plus, playing a position that requires a great deal of athleticism.

23 - It's interesting, but all we can do is speculate.

24 At the very least, Nomar will take Olmedo's spot on the bench. I can't see us cutting him in spring training. He has an upside too. Let's not forget what he can do if he's healthy and in a groove.

25 - I don't think I ever get tired of Logan's Run references.

It's hard to judge this signing until we learn what the next move is. If we drop Ethier, we see almost no offensive improvement, two or three runs at most. Drop Kemp, we probably get worse offensively.

If Pierre still has a job, this signing only helps us defensively and by whatever we get for Kemp and Ethier in a trade. Seeing as how our offense was really bad last year, it's not that encouraging.

33
Which is why two years is the perfect compromise. If you had asked me on Oct 1st what I 'd want, this was it.

So first we sign Furcal from Atlanta, then we sign Jones from Atlanta. When is Chipper's contract up, sounds like he's next. Maybe we shoulda tried to hire Bobby Cox instead of Torre.

Personally, I'm excited about the signing of Jones, as long it doesn't result in the trading of Kemp. Even for all the negatives people have been posting about his declining offensive stats, he still brings great defense and that's a huge step up from this year. This also means we won't be signing Rowand, which would have been a bad move IMHO.

36 "Stay up-to-date with the latest Logan's Run remake news and gossip!"

http://tinyurl.com/2faryu

(SFW, but loud on the eyes)

(No Remake -- I think we might need another letter!)

35-- I agree. There's zero chance someone wouldn't pick him up and we'd be paying him to play somewhere else.

13 - Logan White would have done $36,000,000.02.

Like McCourt said, Pierre's contract will look better as salaries continue to go up. Who might the dodgers package with Pierre to get a pitcher assuming they no longer feel a need to get a third baseman?

Headline on Deadspin:

Woman Knocks Out Husband With Potato;
Dodgers Sign Her for $25 Million Over Two Years

but he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him

This is the part I can't stand. No absolution without penance.

What I've enjoyed in reading the press coverage is seeing that the recognition that Pierre is a bad offensive player is seeping into even the mainstream press, not just the blogs and "stat" publications. The AP story matter-of-factly references "light-hitting Juan Pierre." Not long ago it would have been "proven leadoff man Juan Pierre."

44 - And dieticians continue to try to tell us that it isn't the patato but the stuff we put on the patato that hurts us.

46 That's because we didn't win last season. If we made it to the playoffs, it would have been "proven leadoff man."

proven leadoff man hitting second

The current 2008 Dodger salary is at about $108.321 plus $3.15M in non-roster salary owed for a total of about $111.471M which is about &8.7M less than the final 2007 salary total.

The $8.7M margin is not enough to sign a quality FA pitcher, such as Kuroda, so I would assume a high salaried player would have to be moved.

Kemp, Ethier and LaRoche would not make much of a dent in the salary picture. Pierre $8M/Loaiza $7M, on the other hand, would free a nice chunck of change to finance a quality FA pitcher, plus some fancy backup PVL.

Of course, this is based upon the assumption that Frank does not open his wallet a little wider.

46

Doesn't that hurt his trade value?

46 - And yet Dylan Hernandez in the Times passed along the idea of Pierre batting in front of Jones as a positive thing.

I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

weren't the Dodgers better than the D-Backs and Rocks for about 9/10 of the season?

37 I would agree with that, I think we will learn more next week when we have the press conference.

It will be interesting to see when Joe becomes more and more the face of the club, right now it is Ned's show and thus far, the kids are still here and the Winter meetings are over.

Only one more key date remains, next Wednesday, December 12th, the last day to tender contracts.

Here are the Dodgers who can be non-tendered (with their 2007 salary) that day:
1. Joe Beimel (912K)
2. Yhency Brazoban (395K)
3. Mark Hendrickson (2.9M)
4. Scott Proctor (412K)
5. Jason Repko (395K)

My hunch is that the Dodgers will try to work a deal with Repko (especially given the Jones deal and Delwyn's option situation (he is out of them) like they tried with Jayson Werth. Beimel, Brazoban and Proctor will get contracts.

The question is Hendrickson, given that Ned is on record on not giving a lot of money for middle relievers and if they can sign Kuroda, they will have in camp, Penny, Lowe, Billingsly, Loiaza, Schmidt, Kuo, Orenduff, McDonald, Elbert, Kershaw, Stults, and Hull. Do they need another 3+ million dollar insurance plan in Hendrickson?

50
How are you handling the bonus? Are you spreading it over two years or putting it all into 2008?

40
Jenny Agutter turns 55 in two weeks.

If the reports are true that Jones played last year with a hyper-extended elbow, without telling anyone, then I would expect a big bounce back year from him.

Of course, as I said last night, I'm not making any judgments until I see what happens with Pierre.

24 - Nomar for backup catcher?

And yet Dylan Hernandez in the Times passed along the idea of Pierre batting in front of Jones as a positive thing

Didn't Hernandez say that Jones said it was a positive thing?

Can you imagine this board if we were rumored to deal Chad for Alex Rios?

"he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him"

Okay, Ned. You got it. Actually, we've been looking at the circumstances all along. And the circumstances were that you already had a young stud centerfielder who would put up a 125 OPS+ and relegated him to spending much of the year in AAA and on the bench.

Hi everybody -
You boys talk the numbers talk really well. What I'm interested in is the question of chemistry: will the addition of Andrew Jones make the clubhouse more relaxed, or less? Is he a team player or an individualist? Is he good friends already with anyone of the Dodgers organization, players or managers?
From Ken G's article on Dodgers.com , and got the impression that Jones and Furcal are good buddies from their time together with the Braves. Furcal, according to Ken's article, played a key role in smoozing up the Dodgers at crucial times in the negotiating process.
Everyone talks about the Kids. IMHO one of the most impressive aspects of Martin-Kemp-Ethier-Loney's game over and above their impressive numbers) is the Fun Factor. They have fun playing baseball, and it shows, and I love it.
Add to this Andruw Jones and Furcal's friendship and it looks like the Dodgers in 2008 will be much improved, in more ways than mere performance figures.

53 And the D-Backs are losing Livan Hernandez too boot!@ Nowhere to go but down for the snakes. Haw.

60 That would certainly give us a nice outfield defense. I love Alex Rios. Not enough to give up Chad, but he's a mighty fine player.

I agree with most of the posts.The Jones signing has many positive ramifications in that none of our young talent was sacrificed to add some power and defense to a club that needed both elements.I do agree that Jones talents are on the wane and he probably wont put up the numbers he had in earlier years.I can live with the club not doing much else.Every club needs a good 4th outfielder and Pierre can fit this role well.Look around the league.You will find other good teams with players of lesser ability than Pierre as 4th outfielders/pinch hitters.
That being said,Kemp is probably still trade fodder for a Bedard,a trade that would help the Dodgers even though most of us would hate to lose him.

"Jones is still one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, and up until 2007 -- when he allegedly played with a hyper-extended elbow -- was good for an OBP near .350 and 30-40 homers every year"

I didn´t know that Andruw was hurt.

50 ,55
ESPN in their story reported the following for Andruw's payout:

2008: $9m salary + $5.1m bonus
2009: $15m salary + $2.1m bonus
2010: $5m bonus

What evidence do we have that Andruw's elbow is back to an acceptable extension level?

17
Kobe is already passed that age.

68
He reported no pain when signing the contract.

1:44 p.m., from Jerry Crasnick
• The Dodgers' signing of Andruw Jones sparked talk Thursday that they were going to turn around and include Matt Kemp in a big offer for Johan Santana. Checked that out and couldn't find any evidence the Dodgers are in on Santana or plan to be. There are rumblings that they actually have more interest in Erik Bedard. That deal would probably be a 4-for-1 swap centered around their best pitching prospect, Clayton Kershaw, and either Kemp or Andre Ethier. But it appears the Dodgers prefer to explore less pricey options first, such as free agent Hiroki Kuroda or a deal for Oakland's Joe Blanton.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=winter_meetings

70
Works for me!

68

The only thing you have to know is that Andruw Jones has two years to put up monster numbers so he can get his huge contract.

That should be motivation enough.

59 - hence, "passed along the idea"

73 - A lot of good that motivation did him in '07.

73 Didn't work too well this year.

73
But 2007 was a contract year too, and he sucked.

Granted, his penalty for said sucking was the 5th highest salary in MLB history, but still...

46 On the flip side, we have to hope his value doesn't completely crash in the eyes of the media and GMs. Else he becomes an overpaid player that's not tradable.

He was hurt.

Just don't let him play hurt.

One side benefit of all this is that we give up no draft picks, since Andruw wasn't offered arbitration (and I believe may have been a Type B FA anyway), and when he leaves, assuming he plays his way back to Type A status, we'll get two first-round picks for him.

80 Atlanta did offer him arbitration but he is only a Type B FA.

Here's Phil Birnbaum's PowerPoint presentation about whether or not players outperform expectations in a contract year.

http://tinyurl.com/qtys9

The conclusion: there's no correlation between player ability and quality of play in the "contract" year.

52 - Assuming the worst -- that we trade or bench Ethier or Kemp and Pierre plays 162 games in LF -- do we have any educated guesses on where Torre would bat Pierre? Nothing from his time with the Yankees tells me that he would want to put Mr. Speed-but-no-Power into the No. 2 slot. Hopefully Joe sees the wisdom of putting Russell Martin into that slot instead of just valuing speed there.