Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Hi - good to see you all again. The Brett Tomko signing is old news, well-discussed in the holiday chat comments, so I won't give you much more than my two pesos. (The parents of Raffi fans can explain the headline.)
Tomko is a below-average pitcher, with two seasons of above-average, park-adjusted ERA out of nine in his career, and two seasons even within shouting distance of average in his past five:
Year/ERA+ (100 is average, per Baseball-Reference.com)
1997: 125
1998: 97
1999: 92
2000: 98
2001: 81
2002: 85
2003: 79
2004: 110
2005: 92
The main arguments for Tomko are that he's a control pitcher (fewer than three walks per nine innings), that he has pitched well in Dodger Stadium (2.93 career ERA there) and that he's an innings-eater, averaging nearly 200 the past four years. Those arguments are not without relevance, but they should be seen as part of the overall picture.
Just before Thanksgiving, I questioned the value of an innings-eater.
(Jeff) Weaver is valued for his innings-eating skills, but are there other ways to eat those innings? Can they be swallowed more cheaply than Weaver would digest them? The going rate for an innings eater - based on what guys like Weaver, Derek Lowe and Odalis Perez command - is about $8-10 million per year. Instead of spending that kind of money on a pitcher who is going to make a difference every fifth day, maybe it's better to spend that kind of money on a hitter who is going make a difference every day.If you use a 99-Cent Store brand starting pitcher, you would have to ask more from your bullpen. You'd probably end up carrying a seventh reliever to help pick up those middle innings your starter would sometimes miss. But if you have better offense, you're less likely to need that 25th roster spot for a position player anyway.
The Dodgers won half the battle - they got an innings-eater at a discount rate: $8.7 million guaranteed to cover two seasons. In doing so, they have reduced the need to carry 12 pitchers, opening a sixth bench slot for position players.
But I'm not convinced that Tomko is exceptionally suited for Dodger Stadium, based on the sub-100 inning sample size available. Given that Dodger Stadium favors pitchers in general, the probability remains that more often than not when Tomko pitches, the opposing pitcher will be better. More often than not, if Tomko wins, it will be because the Dodger offense was better than the opposing offense.
If this signing has been assigned to the "It's Not My Money" Department, and/or if the money saved in picking Tomko over Weaver was used to help pay for position player depth, it's fine. Tomko will probably be one of the 11 best major league pitchers in the organization on Opening Day, and his presence will help at the outset. It will encourage Chad Billingsley or Edwin Jackson to pick up a major league job through the front door instead of catching a major league job dropped desperately from the third story of a burning building.
But don't be fooled - Tomko was less expensive than Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez or Jeff Weaver because he's just not as good. He might be the best the Dodgers can do right now, and you can evaluate the signing on those merits. But Tomko has not, in the sincere sense, filled a slot in the Dodger starting rotation.
You get what you pay for.
That's why if you can't afford to pay for quality, you'd better have some prospects available and ready to step up.
Yeah, suppose so.
"Tomko has a career 2:1 K/BB ratio, which is decent."
Yes and no. It means the ball is in play a lot, and you have to see what happens there. Which leads us to:
"he doesn't give up an obscene amount of home runs"
I'm thinking park effects play into this. Compare his St. Louis and San Francisco totals.
"Pencil him in for at least 180 innings of slightly below league average ball. "
Fair enough, although didn't the Giants drop him out of the rotation at one point last year? I think Tomko could end up in the Elmer Dessens swingman role sooner than people think.
+16, -2, -10, -3, -8, -5, -26, +3, -1
Looking at Pitching Runs Above Replacement, Tomko has:
+51, + 51, +24, +22, +1, +45, +26, +49, +51
Stats like PRAR do award credit to pitchers like Tomko who throw a lot of "average" innings.
I agree. It would be helpful to evaluate the complete 11 or 12-man staff when deciding which pitchers to sign.
Your last point is a good one. If one or two of our young pitchers are ready this season, they could push Tomko--especially if another starter is acquired. The Tomko signing may have been an effort to set the bar at a reasonable level for Houlton/EJ/Billingsley.
As I tried to point out, there are multiple threads to the Tomko signing.
Did they overpay?
How much will it help?
The Dodgers might not have overpaid, but that doesn't mean Tomko will help much.
Pitching Runs Above Average:
-4, +13, +11, +16, +3, -21, +1, +1
Pitching Runs Above Replacement:
+42, +68, +74, +48, +23, +18, +60, +59
For their Careers, Weaver is at +22 (PRAA) and +392 (PRAR), while Tomko is -37 and +322. Over the last two years, Weaver is +2 and +119, while Tomko is +2 and +100.
Weaver has pitched more innings the last couple of years than Tomko, mainly due to Tomko's ineffectiveness rather than injury. But it's not clear that Weaver is worth an extra $3-5M per year than Tomko.
Not if you're losing 130 innings from a pitcher with a potentially lower ERA.
Unless I misunderstand ERA+, it is only unfair the same way AVG is unfair to position players when compared to pinch hitters.
And RIP Vincent Schiavelli -- Mr. Vargas from Fast Times among many other roles (including saith the AP article something in Buffy the Vampire Slayer). Also learned reading the article that the voluptuous Mrs. Vargas was played by Lana Clarkson, recently murdered at Phil Spector's home.
I was less shocked that Vincent Schiavelli died than to find he was only 57. I think I loved him most on "Taxi."
Tomko, mediocre as he is, is something of a shield for the kids. Not a good one, clearly. And I'd sign another veteran, say B. Kim, to a low-cost deal to give the rotation another option.
But it goes back to the kids. The LAD simply must get better, much better, at developing their own pitchers, rather than trying to patch together a rotation with veterans every year.
Asking less of Billingsley is the wise move. He needs a changeup and better fastball accuracy. And starting his work-service clock in June, rather than April, could be worth several million dollars down the road.
As for Jackson, the LAD botched his development in 2003. Colletti appears to have learned from the mistakes of others there, although I fear that the damage to EJ is largely irreversible.
And one small asset that Tomko gives you for down the road is flexibility, as I believe he could be a good middle reliever or set-up guy. He's a two-pitch guy whose K rates likely would go up if he moved to the bullpen.
I dislike Tomko as a pitcher. He's stubborn and soft, and he absolutely caved in the Giants' biggest game last year, at SD in Sept. But given the marketplace and the still sketchy status of several pitching prospects, getting him at that price wasn't awful.
Not a huge follower of Dodger prospects, but other than EJack, how have the Dodgers failed in pitching development? The Dodgers' handling of Driefort didn't give him a weak tissue disease (or whatever he has). The Dodgers' handling of Gagne seemed to have worked out. Was it the Dodgers' fault that Miller and Kuo have gotten injured (serious question)?
Maybe they just haven't had as many touted prospects in the recent past as many people assume they have.
We're not one pitcher away from a WS or the NLCS - we're several players away. And the thinking is that those several players are currently in AA and should be left alone until they're ready. Current free agent signings are highly relevant in that regard - we want to make sure we've got enough money available down the road to take care of these players' arbitration years AND enough money to sign that one guy when our young team really is one pitcher/hitter away from the WS. Until that happens, we want to avoid embarrassing ourselves and, possibly, remain competitive in the division.
The Tomko signing seems to further these goals. He's cheap and short term and he's not god awful. Like Mueller, he's insurance against bringing up Billinglsey before he's ready.
Colletti has really done a good job this off-season. He's put together a team that should be able to compete in a very weak division and he' added prospects to an already rich system. Most importantly, he's avoided taking on any long-term liabilities and preserved future flexibility.
osoria
schmoll
kuo
houlton
jackson
choi
aybar
robles
repko
April 18, 2004
Last night in a fit of Tivo boredom I stumbled on this Dodgers/Giants game at Pac Bell. It featured Weaver vs. our very own Brett Tomko. The game was notable on a few counts. Weaver allowed a booming double to Bonds in the 1st, a Bonds solo HR to leadoff the 4th and "for good measure" a 2-run shot by Bonds in the 6th with FIRST BASE OPEN. Weaver had some bizarre quote after the game about not facing Bonds before and wanting to go after him.
In the 5th Beltre hit a 3-run shot onto the short RF porch which seemed to indicate he had finally learn how to hit. Vinny said now that Beltre has begun to hit the other way, the league better watch out. Encarnacion followed with a line drive homer and David Ross made it 3 in a row. With Ned Colletti looking on, Tomko was removed after dutifully eating 5.2 innings.
The Giants closed it to 7-6 with Gagne in to save it. He struck out Feliz, walked Durham on a borderline pitch and struck out Snow. With Bonds on deck he froze Grissom with a 70 mph "rainbow curve" on the black to end it. The sweep completed a 9-3 start, the best since 1983 I believe.
Two night earlier was the infamous Gagne vs. Bonds matchup when Bonds pulled one foul into the bay on a 100 mph pitch and then homered to CF on a 101 mph pitch. If anyone has a tape of that one please let me know. Must have that one in the archive.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2032
This might be obvious to many, but I'm relatively new to the more advanced baseball stats.
This means that replacing Tomko with EJ or another minor leaguer will likely result in significantly below average performance. That's why Tomko can get paid his $4M per year. It's not like any old AA/AAA pitcher can put in an average performance.
Viewed in that light, Tomko is acceptable to me as a placeholder until something better comes via trade or the farm.
Dollar for dollar I'll take Nomar, Furcal, and Mueller with our staff over Choi/Seanz, Robles and Aybar with a Kevin Millwood type pitcher and Jeff Weaver back.
Sorry for the vagueness -- I wasn't saying that the development staff, unimpressive though it's been, is solely responsible for the LAD poor results with homegrown starting pitching.
Although I do believe a franchise's development acumen gets hugely undervalued by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and many other minor league analysts who focus so heavily on the individual player, I meant to say that the LAD as an organization simply have done a poor job overall of producing homegrown starting pitchers in the last five years, perhaps longer.
It's such a crucial area, yet it gets overlooked while fans and the media take a micro view in debating the merits of Brett Tomko or Elmer Dessens or other veteran starters the LAD have been forced to shop for in recent years.
Within the NL West, the LAD have shown an amazing ineptitude on this front.
While the LAD were getting almost nothing from their homegrown starting pitchers the last five years -- and yes, Gagne was a marvelous conversion -- the Rockies were producing Cook, Francis, Chacon and Jennings; the Diamondbacks were producing Webb and Capuano (bad move to trade him) shortly after they'd pumped out Patterson (now an ace) and Penny (now a well-paid Dodger).
The Padres came up with Peavy, whose salary was $750,000 when he won the majors ERA title two years ago. They also produced Lawrence, who gave them about 1,000 innings for low dollars; and Tim Stauffer, who as a rookie gave them vital innings last year.
The Giants produced Lowry, Williams, Cain Foppert and the Liriano kid who's creating a lot of buzz for the Twins.
Yes, this stuff goes in cycles, but given their revenues, international reach and pitchers park, the LAD have been incredibly bad on this front in recent years.
Yes, the current batch of LAD pitching prospects get a lot of praise, but I'm not sure Arizona's Nippert/Mock and San Diego's Carrillo/Wells are any less capable.
It'll be interesting to see just how talented these kids are. And it'll be interesting to see if Colletti/Little/pitching coach/Collins can create the optimal environement for Billingsley/Jackson/Orenduff/Elbert to succeed.
http://tinyurl.com/8k9ge
nippert is good, but tires easily going into the 5th inning. It could be due to the first year of coming back from TJ but he needs to work on his stamina. Carrillo is good too, but right now is a two pitch pony- fb and curveball. He is a lot like orenduff, polish college pitcher with a low 90s fb that needs to work on developing a third pitch.
the other two arent that good.
Remember, the recent Dodger drafts have only been regarded highly since late 2003, when skepticism about the June 2003 draft gave way to optimism.
one reason for this is scott boras. Jackson's agent is the devil himself. 2 years ago, after many were labeling jackson as the next doc gooden, boras was probably already preparing the 7 year 120 mil offersheet for any team that want to sign jackson during his yr 26 free agent year. Now, after a year and a half of struggles, boras is see that contract vanishing. Before the 2004 season, remember when boras had that long "talk" with beltre and what was at stake for his future? I probably think the same has happened for jackson. Who set up this winters training at gagnes house... two boras clients.. maybe boras? who knows.
might be alittle conspiracy theory here but i boras is going to do everything in his power to get jackson back on track for the sole reason of that huge contract in his free agent year. hes going to hire the best sports pyschologists for jackson, hes going to make him work harder and harder and his going to turn him around.
wow, do i have more trust in boras' greed then in the dodgers ability to develop pitchers!?!? i dunno, i think my scenario might be a little be looney tunes!
The A's rotation is even better than when Peterson was in charge. Young has done more with Harden then Peterson ever did. Curt Young also helped Zito to rebound, not to mention helping Blanton and Haren blossom in their first full seasons. Peterson was overrated, look at the Mets he has not done a ton with that team. I heard he was the one that said he could turn Zambrano around, ooopps. These pitchers are more products of the entire A's system, every pitching coach at each level is on the same page. Young worked with all of these guys and they all have been successful (he was a minor league pitching coach). The A's draft the right talent and they know how to work with them.
Narnia is actually very good. I thought it would be really cheezy but I was pleasently suprised. My kids, 10 and 11 yrs loved it. In the begining you think to youself this is absurd, beavers don't really talk (softball joke potential here) and a few minutes later you think its completly natural that the animals speak. The story is pretty good but predictable, the movie is beautiful and sentimental.
One of the things I got for the holidays was HDTV service and a DVR.
Any of you live here in Orange County, CA?
Basically what I need to know is..can I see Dodger games on HDTV?
COX is my cable company. It appears that they do not offer Fox Sports west, just Fox. I am wondering (without doing more research) if there is a "baseball package" or something i can buy
48. I would take Raffi over the Wiggles any day but my kids were growing out of that kind of music about the time the Wiggles were just becoming big-they were little more than a video on the Disney channel when my kids were real small. When they were toddlers Raffi gave them (and us) lots of happy times.
Now we stand at the entrance of that long dark tunnel known as female adolescence. I am told they have yet to invent a flashlight or any kind of lighting device that works in the dreaded Tunnel of Female Adolesence.
I have Cox in SB and there is no HD and I do not get HD Dodger games. The baseball package is all FSN channels so there is no high definition there (unless your pakcage has a FSN high def channel). Basically only the high def channels are in real high definition, the basic channels just look nicer, but are not high def. The high definition channels are just the basic cable ones, TNT, Discovery channel, HBO, and two HD specific channels.
caveat: Tivo works with HD if you have Direct TV but the Direct TV-HD-Tivo box is $600 (I think they are now offering $200 rebate).
More info than you probably wanted.
Which teams will have HD games on Fox Sports Net HD in their respective regions?
In the NBA, the Spurs, Mavericks, Lakers, Timberwolves, Magic, Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks. In the NHL, the Kings*, Stars*, Coyotes*, Wild*, Lightning* and Carolina Hurricanes*. In the MLB, the Astros, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Twins.
--
The most troubling aspect of this deal is the thought the money spent on Tomko, could have nabbed us Brian Giles.
If you add 8.6mils to Giles' offer, I think we have a great chance to sign him.
Houlton and Bills in the 4/5, with Brian Giles in LF, is more appealing to me than Brett Tomko.
I'll be the grinch (somewhat)....
Narnia is Tomko: blandly mediocre (
Kong is Odalis Perez: staggeringly mediocre (when it's great, it's GREAT, and when it's bad, it's BAD.)
Definitely interested in seeing Munich and The New World. Hopefully they're better than the rest of the Dodger staff right now. :)
I didn't specify the causes of why the LAD have done such a poor job of producing homegrown pitching the last five years, if not longer, because it's impossible to pinpoint cause and effect.
Poor amateur drafting? Poor international signings? Poor instruction? Poor organizational planning? Incoherent pitching policies and philosophies? Bad luck?
All of the above to various degrees, I suspect. It's clear to me that other NL West teams, even those who play in hitters parks, have done a much better job on this front in that time span.
I do believe EJ was poorly handled by the organization. Jackson would've been better off coming up with Oakland, Minnesota, Atlanta, San Diego, perhaps even Boston.
Yes, Logan White's drafts are encouraging, but how many of his pitchers have yielded even decent returns in the majors?
I know several of Logan's pitching prospects were taken out of high school. I know it's early, but the SDP won the NL West last year in part because a starting pitcher drafted just two years earlier,
Tim Stauffer, gave them vital innings that veteran No. 5 starters failed to provide. Major league production is sexier to me than minor league rankings.
Indeed White's pitchers are showing more promise in the minors than many of the other draftees of recent LAD regime(s), but that's a pretty low bar to touch.
Does Terry Collins know what he's doing?
Who were the people that so thoroughly botched Edwin Jackson situation in 2003?
Why is Lasorda allowed to mess with Jackson, teaching him curveballs one day after the kid finally has a good game for Vegas?
Let's just say the LAD are overdue to get their act together.
I was really disappointed with "The Thin Red Line". Not because Malick didn't make a good movie, but because he changed it so much from what I was expecting afte reading the book. My father was at Guadalcanal in the first invasion wave and I was looking forward to a more historical movie on the campaign.
I would be happy if Tomko turned out to be Narnia--an unexpected and pleasant performance without too many sad or gory parts.
However, to put things in perspective Blazing Saddles, the Godfather and probably Chasing Amy would make my top three favorites.
Sorry Xei.
As for "The New World" I like the idea and it sounds great to me but I can't get into Colin Farell. I think he is way over rated.
He was really good in Minority Report and I enjoyed Harts War but they make these guys stars when they arent great actors, at least thats what I think. I look at Orlando Bloom the same way. Kingdom of Heaven would have been a much, much better movie if say Russell Crowe was the lead as oppossed to Bloom. And don't get me started on Farell as Sonny Crockett...
I passed on watching Polar Express on the way back as I was sleeping the sleep that cold medicine brings.
http://www.drmikemarshall.com/ChapterThirty-Six.html
he teaches you to throw:
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Maxline True Screwball
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Maxline Fastball
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Maxline Fastball Sinker
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Maxline Pronation Curve
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Torque Fastball
-Baseball Grip, Release and Spin Axis of my Torque Fastball Slider
and a bunch of other stuff. needless to say, marshalls theories on pitching are interesting.
Marty, I thought you paid closer attention. ;-)
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/308329.html
That's what I loved about it.
Seriously though, the plot line raises some interesting issues. Why is it that no matter how much we may love someone, eventually curiosity or jealousy makes us need to know how many other partners they have had. Why do men need to believe their girlfriend is sexually inexperienced. Why is lipstick lesbianism sexy but male homosexuality is not (unless, of course, you area gay man). Do people choose to be gay. No need to answer these here but I thought the movie raised some interesting social issues.
I particularly like the scene at the comic book convention. ("What's a Nubian?")
I just sat through the entire Champ Sports Bowl and am now ready for the Insight Bowl.
I'm a little pessimistic about the Tomko signing, although I doubt it'll make or break the franchise's chances one way or another - but the thing that annoys me is that I had to spend Christmas with a Giants fan who couldn't stop snickering about the Giants offloading Tomko onto the Dodgers. There's definitely no love lost for Tomko up here in SF.
As for movie talk - I loved Chasing Amy, too. I especially like the beautifully layered speech Amy has after listening to Holden's ridiculous plan to fix the group dynamics - she's understanding of Holden's insecurities, tells him she loves him, and then slaps him for insulting her. I like Silent Bob's monologue, and I also like the way the film treats sexual orientation. Still, my favorite Kevin Smith film is, now and forever, Dogma.
As for Polar Express - Bob, you were smart to miss it. It's a nice children's book, but they should never have tried to make a 90-minute movie out of it. 30 minutes might've worked. I was sucked in by the IMAX 3-D version, along with a friend, and we were fighting sleep very early on and checking our watches. 90 minutes, but felt like 3 hours.
Doubt any movie (including the heralded opening sequence of Private Ryan) could ever adequately depict the horror witnessed, and the sacrifices made by these guys.
That was far and away one of the funniest things I've seen on SNL in forever. It's almost entirely garbage these days but out of loyalty I still watch, hoping for something funny.
I too loved Chasing Amy, but this was during its theatrical run. I think I liked it by default, having just been thoroughly amused with Clerks.
Looking back, and having watched it again recently, I'd have to now agree with Jon's "insipid" appraisal of the movie.
My friend says that those Magnolia Bakery cupcakes are very very good.
No, just stop listening to Brent Musburger. ESPN has sent their Big 10 and Big XII booster club announcers to this game.
However well an injury-riddled, flu-ridden Arizona State team fares against Rutgers won't mean much to how well USC will fare against Texas.
Saw some free hockey -- Bruins won 4-3 in OT. Caps phenom Alexander Ovechkin scored the most incredible goal on a breakaway. There was just no possible angle for him to get the puck into the net and yet he bounced it in off the upper crossbar corner. Wow.
The guy sitting behind us got called to the ice for a between-periods promotion and won two free plane tix anywhere in the US for hitting a puck from the goal line and getting it to stop in the face-off circle at center ice. Then he called his wife/girlfriend/mom?? ("Hi honey") on his cellphone when he got back to his seat and said he had won one free ticket.
Thanks for listening.
In the mediocre catagory, there's Memoirs Of A Geisha, The White Countess, Casanova, Mrs. Henderson Presents and Narnia.
But I quite liked King Kong, Brokeback Mountain, Munich and (for the artier crowd) Cache.
And I absolutely loved the new Woody Allen film, Match Point.
Like I said, I've been on a movie binge the last few days.
I despised that movie so much it made my teeth hurt.
But then again, I have friends who loved it.
Furthermore, Gone Fishin with Danny Glover and Joe Peschi is the worst movie of all time followed closely by Return to OZ.
I have not seen Billingsly, but if he has a major league arm and major league command, I see no reason why he should not be in the rotation. It is not like putting him into the rotation would displace a pitcher like Koufax, Drysdale, Osteen or Sutton.
Stan from Tacoma
I Heart Huckabees was a wrist turner for me. I must have checked my watch about 50 times seeing that wondering how much longer I had to sit through it.
95
I saw "Toys" in Luxembourg where films have two sets of subtitles, one in Dutch (actually the Luxembourg dialect of it) and another in French.
Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/boetl
and dollar for dollar, I'll take Choi/Saenz, Bradley, and Aybar over Nomar, Lofton and Mueller.
All the Dodgers have done is rearrange the furniture, and at best added depth. But with all the money they've spent, we should've got more than this. The division is very very weak. The current team is probably a slight favorite to win the NL West. The team Depo had headed into 2006, plus the extra money to spend would've also been a slight favorite to win the NL West too imho. vr, Xei
Garden State is still my favorite movie of the last couple years. My guilty pleasure was In Good Company.
Just don't get me started... better head off to bed. vr, Xei
haha i've had mr. pibb and red vines, but not together. i can't say for sure whether they are indeed "crazy delicious". that was a great bit though. they've got the old school vibe down. there was a great piece on slate about it.
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