The "I don't get appreciation for my charity work so I'm stopping it" thing was probably the straw that broke the camel's back.

When does Gameday, I mean, the game start today?

12:10 p.m. Ish.

2
Was Baez as unimpressive in person last night as he normally is on Gameday™?

Baez left with "flu-like symptoms."

1

agreed.

5

& dizziness.

7 In fairness, the dizziness was likely brought on by watching Padres circle the bases around him.

Mid-summer, mid-week, mid-day. Heat wave seems to have broken. Who's up for playing hooky? (Raises hand).

"I'm not sure the fans want a quick fix," Colletti said. "If we make the playoffs and don't get to the World Series, and then we have to be without some of our young kids next year, I'm not sure of the fans' reaction to that."

Thank God I at least read him say it.

This is fine in theory, but one man's "short run" is another man's 10 game package...Next year sells in places where there is rarely a this year, places such as Kansas City or Pittsburg, nice places where glitz is a day late, and glamour is a dolllar short.

Listen Bill, I have a 12 game package, and I want the dodgers to sell. Period. Get rid of Kenny Lofton, Danys Baez, and Cesar Izturis. These are mediocre veterans who have no future with the dodgers, trade them for some value.

And I don't give a good about glitz or glamour, I don't want to give up future cheap stars for a guy who may get us to 80-83 wins if we're lucky. That doesn't fly with me.

Geez, get a brain Bill.

7 In fairness, the dizziness was likely brought on by watching Padres circle the bases around him.

that or NyQuil...

In my eyes, Odalis is done being a reliable starting pitcher. His fastball, which used to sit between 88-92, now tops out around 87 with less life than it used to have. The only chance he has of thriving is becoming a Moyer-type with pinpoint control to go along with his above-average change-up. Problem is, you have to be a smart, level-headed guy to pull that off and Odalis is almost the opposite of that. For all the talk of him still being young and all, I don't really care because this is one of those times where perception matches up with the numbers.

Steve Physioc's brilliant statwork: "Fossum usually strikes out a batter per inning"

Reality: 53 K's in 100 1/3 IP, approximately 1/2 a K per IP

Rex Hudler's brilliant statwork: "We have Jorge Cantu highlighted in the field here, look at that nice fielding percentage [.976]. He's got good hands over there"

Reality: If he qualified, that would be the worst fielding percentage for a 2B in the AL, right below his best buddy Adam Kennedy.

14 Oh yeah, and Cantu subsequently made an error on a routine play in the 1st inning that ended up costing TB 2 runs.

14 Maybe he meant, "He strikes a batter more innings than not." Of course, even that's not likely to be true depending on whether Casey's Ks are bunched up.

The fact that the Angels are in first (or were as of yesterday) is hard to fathom. Here are the theories:

1. Heck, they do have a real good rotation.
2. They've managed to schedule 30 consecutive games against KC and Tampa.
3. I know they're called the Angels, but I suspect involvement of the occult. After all, the "Devil" Rays have been repeatedly spotted near the scene of the crime.

Since when did price of below average middle relief gone up to average starting pitcher? It is possible baseball managers are misusing starting pitchers and pulling them out too early? Maybe Tommy Lasorda was right about pitch counts.

BTW, Las Vegas 51s score 20 runs last night vs. KC AAA team. Have we scored more than 20 runs since second half started?

17 Are you trying to say Odalis is an average starting pitcher?

If Elmer is free then I guess we traded....

2 minor leaguers and Odalis for Dessens and about 5 million.

I like that. Like one poster said, Odalis is topping out a 87 where it used to be 92. He's a left handed version of one my all time favorites Hideo Nomo. He's toast.

17 It is possible baseball managers are misusing starting pitchers and pulling them out too early? Maybe Tommy Lasorda was right about pitch counts.

he invented the pitch count?? who new!

Old friend alert in Tampa Bay! Edwin Jackson in to relieve Fossum in the second inning. It's 6-4 Angels.

This could be a very long game.

look, old friend Jackson.

"Elmer is free..."

This is the sort of thing that accountants and used car salesmen try to use. Elmer was most certainly not free. $xM are going to KC. Dessens is coming to the Dodgers and has a contract remaining worth about $2.5M. If you want to claim Elmer is free, then you have to account for that salary against the $xM we sent/will send KC. No matter how you cut it, we got Dessens and his contract through 2007 as part of this deal.

Since Dessens is worth about $500k (replacement level) and the credit against him is costing $2.5M, the total deal is worth aproximately $2M less than it appears.

You can put the cash in whatever bucket you like, but you can't change the overall balance.

23 - But Kansas City has agreed to pay Dessens' salary.

Unless I'm mistaken, the Dodgers are either saving $3 million to $4.5 million with a free Dessens, or $5.5 million-$7 million while still having to pay for Dessens - whichever you prefer.

Dodger fans have to be as frustrated as NY Knick fans and probably more so. You live in a big market where money should be and usually is freely spent and the Dodgers and Knicks have relatively little to show for the past 20 yrs. The Dodgers should be contenders and winners in the same way the Yankees are. They are like a forgotten franchise from past generations.

The thing that makes it worse for the Dodgers is they actually have some players they think are decent and can actually win while Knicks fans are resigned to their fate. Switching GMs to mask the problem clearly isnt the answer.

I actually have sympathy for the fans of the Dodgers(but not a lot). What a horribly managed franchise from top to bottom.

I don't want to be the one to get us started, but that Plaschke thing today must have taken him like 10 minutes.

26

Right now, I think Isiah Thomas couldn't help the Dodgers!

26

are you from NY?

26
Presumably he is from "America's Finest City."

I understand that KC is paying Dessen's salary. That does not matter. It is an accounting trick.

Look,
If you have access to marble that I want. It is worth $1, but you have to pay $5 to get to it.

I have access to a marble you want. I have to pay $20 to get to it, but you are only willing to pay $15 for it.

If I send you the marble you want (plus two unpolished stones) and I give you $10 of the cost of retrieval (so you have to pay $10 to get your marble). In exchange you send me the marble I want and agree to pick up the bill to get to it.

In the end I paid $20, you paid $15 and we both have the marbles we want.

If you want to pretend that I got my marble "for free" just because you paid the access fee, then you are misunderstanding the basic economics of the transaction.

In order for the deal to work, I was going to have to pay $20 (and give you a pair of unpolished stones) and you were going to have to pay $15. The deal works exactly the same way if I pay the $5 to get to your marble. In that case, instead of giving you $10, I would give you $5.

How you lable the buckets makes no difference. The balance at the end of te day is the same.

As a result, as part of this deal we paid $2.5M for a $500 value. Labling things differently does not change that fact.

Dodger fans have to be as frustrated as NY Knick fans and probably more so

Um, no, they have salary issues never seen before, and no future. In next year or 2008, we will be a great team. Loney, LaRoche, Kemp, Ethier, Martin, Billinglsey, Kershaw, so on will make us a great team.

What a horribly managed franchise from top to bottom.

In what way? We tried to win this year, but people got hurt, and others are having very subpar years (Drew), so it didn't work. But we're smart in that we're gonna sell, and our young players will make us contenders for years to come.

But the padres have one of the worst farms in all of baseball. Good luck with whoever will catch after this year, or whoever will be in LF, or 3B.

In the second inning, already every Angel batter has reached base on a hit or a walk.

Poor Jackson. Nate, what is his problem?

26 Having a lot of money is worthless unless you have young talent to play key roles for low salary. The reason the Dodgers have been so mediocre since the mid-90's is the failure of the farm system. Now that they finally have some players coming up through the system, it will allow them to splurge on the elite free agents and not have to spend $3+ million at every position to field a serviceable team.

The only exception to this rule, obviously, is the Yankees since they are able to buy elite talent at every position, but unless Bill Gates buys the Dodgers that just isn't going to happen.

Unless I'm mistaken, the Dodgers are either saving $3 million to $4.5 million with a free Dessens, or $5.5 million-$7 million while still having to pay for Dessens - whichever you prefer.

Right. So either way you look at it, the Dodgers pay Dessens' salary. Since that salary is aproximately $2M more than Dessens' worth, the deal (whether viewed as a $3M savings or as a $5.5M savings) is worth aproximately $2M less than it appears on it's face.

The Angels have gone double digits in the second inning and lead 12-4.

And our Old Friend is out of the game.

33

thanks for the update Bob, my girl just beat me in a game of rock, hand scissors & guess who won?

"$2.5M for a $500 value"

Oh, sure, that may be true.

But here, we assume, are the choices the Dodgers had Tuesday morning.

1) Do nothing, and owe Perez $16.5 million

2) DFA Perez, and owe Perez $16.5 million

3) Make yesterday's trade, and owe Perez a maximum of $13.5 million.

Dessens himself may be a bad investment, but regardless of Dessens, that's what it boils down to. Did the Dodgers think it was worth giving up $3 million in savings to keep Perez? And this is certainly debatable.

It's not "hand"; it's "paper."

And rock won. Rock always wins.

36 So, your argument is dependent on the assumption that Dessens is a balance-sheet asset worth $0.5M yet the Royals are paying him $2.5M over two years? And also that a pitcher can be readily found to perform at a level equal to Dessens for $0.5M TODAY?

And that the money the Royals are including for Dessens doesn't matter because it's $2M more than Dessens is worth?

Over this 13 game skid anyone know the Dodgers pythageron record? And to those who think the Dodgers should sign both Zito and Schmidt to free agent contracts during the offseason that is just "very" wishful thinking. If you are "very" lucky, you may get one but not a snowballs chance in Saugus that you'll get both. Quality starting pitching is in short supply, every team in the NL has a need to sign one of the two. Then you got the Yankees and their deep pockets in the AL. vr, Xei

36 - It appears to me you're making a distinction between Dessens' negotiated salary vs. his actual worth, which is fine, except you're not making the same distinction with Perez.

36 Well, to Dessens' mother, I'm sure he's priceless, so in that case we got a heck of a deal.

Nate, let's talk about your golf clubs.

Old Friend Dioner Navarro singles in a 9-pitch AB against Kevin Gregg.

12 runs in two innings without a triple or home run. Home runs are overrated and are nothing but rally killers!!! :)
vr, Xei

44 But that brings into play all sorts of questions about Odalis' mother. She's sick, but I'm sure she loves her son as much as Dessens' mother.

Angels - 12 runs, 0 home runs
Devil Rays - 4 runs, 2 home runs

You do the math.

Wow -- I take 15 hours off Dodger Thoughts and you guys are still hashing out the math of Odalis Perez.

I think it's pretty clear what's going on here but there's got to be an easier way to convince Danica McKellar to do a guest post.

40

well atleast you got what I said.

Perhaps we should change the punch line to the joke to be "Let Danica do the math."

Baez has been trash. But I think many fail to realize we didn't give up anything for him. And Jackson's trade value sinks every passing day.

If that dang blasted Baez only pitched the way he had the previous 3 seasons everything would have been A OK.

I had a boss who had never seen anyone play "Rock, paper, scissors" before and she was in her 50s and had grown up in the U.S. We had to explain the rules to her. And she was serious.

Although not as seriously as these guys:
http://www.worldrps.com/

39 - Choice 2 is not a net of owing Perez $16.5M.

If we DFA him, three things can happen:

1. Someone bites. /cheer us - we save $16.5M.

2. No one bites, but some folks call us about a trade - probably/possibly better than the one we made.

3. No one bites. No one calls about a trade. We have options, including unconditional release.

In the case of unconditional release, if someone else then signs Perez, they owe us MLB minimum for the duration, so we recover at least $500k.

This last scenario I view as the floor, so any savings we got must be discounted by at least $500k, plus some amount (x) that represents the sum of the value*probablity of options 1 and 2. Additionally, we have some number (y) that represents the difference in value of OP-Dessens.

From there we look at the rest of the trade.

The question simply becomes is ($3M savings - $500K - x - y) worth giving up two prospects.

I feel strongly that it was not.

36 - It appears to me you're making a distinction between Dessens' negotiated salary vs. his actual worth, which is fine, except you're not making the same distinction with Perez.

Because that is only relevant from the perspective of KC. OP's salary is a sunk cost to the Dodgers.

55.

Those pitchers aren't really big "prospects".

A classic bit of "Rock, Paper, Scissors" artwork:

http://tinyurl.com/mabtd

57 - they better not be, given what we got for them.

55 -

Option 1 - no chance

Option 2 - how would the trade be better? Having DFAed Odalis puts us at a greater disadvantage - and it's not like we're switching general managers during the 10-day period to make a better trade.

Option 3 - pretty much brings us back to where we were/are

Basically, I see the $3M-$500K part, but x in your equation is pretty much zero. The y is obviously subject to debate, as is the whole question at the end.

Mark Prior's pitching pretty well against the Mets.

61
Yeah. Interesting performance thus far.

Joe Sheehan doesn't like the trade ...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5345

... taking that compelling but familiar path - better to hold on to even suspect prospects than trade them for known mediocrities.

Today's lineup, courtesy of Mr. Rawitch:

Furcal
Lofton
Drew
Saenz
Ethier
Martin
Aybar
Izturis
Penny

61 - Too bad he's at 85 pitches through 5.

58

brings back memories of elemantary.

I'm past caring about this trade, I'm more concerned about Morris's walk rate and WHIP in the Pioneer League than anything else.

64

nice line up (better than yesterday's) am I crazy for thinking Martin would look good in the 2 slot?.

x is not quite 0, but I agree it's close. It is likely that the %chance of someone biting is small, but non-zero.

y is "debatable", sure. But I think the debate is fairly one-sided. OP has clearly suffered from bad luck - high BABIP and high HR/FB%. What I concede exists, but that I cannot measure, is the "mental" aspects. OP on the Dodgers may have almost no value simply because of psycological reasons. I really have no idea - maybe all of OP was bad luck, maybe some of it was bad luck combined with Little's short rope combined with OP's mental make up. I won't pretend it does not exist, I just know I can't quantify it, where as I know I can quantify OP's bad luck so far this year.

Josh's take on Plaschke today is pretty good.

The World RPS society also describes the eight gambits (strategies) to use in a best of three.

The top two are:
1) The avalanche, where you throw rock three straight times

2) The bureaucrat, where you throw paper three straight times

Perez dosn't realize how much of an impact this trade has ment to DT'ers.

65 Aw, it's Dusty we're talking about here.

71

the world Avalanche sounds cooler, I'll use that term next time I play (I Avalanched you!!, take that!)

61- yeah really, a 4 walk no hitter through 5.

Runners on first and second with one out, and Maine K's Aramis Ramirez.

Jacque Jones tries to deliver

69 - Well, I threw myself on the "Odalis is having bad luck" sword earlier this year, so while it did look to me that his stuff had disappeared, however temporarily, I won't argue with you there.

The Avalanche was popular in tournament play in the 1890s, but it has since been surpassed by more sophisticated strategies in competitive Rock, Paper, Scissors tournaments.

I don't want to feel bad about the Perez trade being discussed this much. It might not be the most significant deal in the world, but it doesn't mean it had no interesting elements (much less the math mystery).

71
Where does "The Seamstress" rank?

75 Just an FYI from the DT archives. http://tinyurl.com/htnxg

78 Well, I was funning on this but certainly you're right.

79 Judging by its name...very low

79
I don't know about "The Seamstress", but there is "The Toolbox" which is three straight scissors, and "Paper Dolls" which is paper, scissors, scissors.

82
Oh. I had envisioned "The Seamstress" as three straight scissors.

80 - I know you were, but I was worried others were annoyed.

Also, that's one thing people here forget - I never banned the term "no-no."

83
There's so much you need to learn about RPS (as we insiders call Rock, Paper, Scissors).

Three straight scissors is dangerous against beginners because they like to throw rock.

Skilled players can tell when someone is going to throw scissors by watching the tendons in the opponent's hands flex differently.

84 I'd like to hear a Mexican soccer announcer give the call at the end of a no-no. "NOOOOOOO! NOOOOOOO! NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NOOOO hitter"

85
I came here to learn about OPS, and ended up learning about RPS. What a country!

You never want to take me on in a game of RPS when death is on the line.

I know it's critical for Josh to maintain good relationships with all member of the media, but I think it's funny that when Plaschke writes about the Dodgers, Josh responds with something akin to:

"Plaschke's wrong and I don't understand his point. He's one of America's great writers. But he's retarded."

64. Did I miss something about Repko? I thought he was going to bring a spark to the team, and now he's out of the line-up two games in a row?

I think the Dodgers house blog is a good way for the team to face its criticism. Companies in other fields do it as well.

I think the Dodgers can live without Plaschke, but not the other way around.

Mark Prior leaves an interesting game in the sixth for a pinch-hitter, having thrown 103 pitches and only 56 strikes.

Prior walks Betran and comes out at 103 pitches before facing Delgado.

77

in the words of Wayne (waynes world) "I did not no that"

90 - I was thinking the same thing. I'm suspicious that he was taken out the other night because of an injury (why else have Jose Cruz PH?), maybe his ankle got worse or something.

Did Vin say anything about that?

93 - and he still had a no-hitter going

90 How can you hold Lofton out of the line-up now that he's on a season-best home run streak?

Seriously though, his ankle's still not 100% and he's only supposed to be a platoon-mate anyway.

I got the sense that despite all the sparkplug press, Repko is still viewed as a platoon player.

NM, he was relived and not pinch-hit for. Micah Ohman pitching now for the Cubs.

Prior walked 5.

I guess Kenny Lofton is such a dangerous power hitter that Grady is willing to play him again

Is it just me, or do starting pitchers seem to be throwing a lot more pitches/inning these days?

Unless you're operating a lawn mower, you need more than one spark plug.

92/93 - So he was actually lifted mid-inning during a "no no". I'll bet that doesn't happen often, especially by a team managed by Dusty Baker.

Did Vin say anything about that?

He seemed like he was about to when he caught sight of a baby. However, after talking about the baby for 3 minutes then telling us about the time when Greene's great aunt gave him a baseball mit, he never got back to Repko's injury.

"We're not operating lawn mowers here, people!"

88 You're the last person I'd challenge. But I'll tell you that site reminds me a lot of Juche-tendency communism. Oh the good old days of being taught Juche thought by homeless men who called me "comrade" and "mr. chairman".

103 - yes, but this is a guy that makes JD Drew look like Cal Ripken

When the Astros threw their multiple pitcher no-hitter against the Yankees, starter Roy Oswalt left mid-inning with a groin injury. But that was in the second.

Later in the game, Kirk Saarloos replaced Pete Munro with two outs in the fourth.

So, if you're rooting for the team being no-hit, do you talk about it excessively to jinx it, or does talking about it increase the chances of your own team's being no-hit?

Milt Pappas opens up a bottle of champagne!

How many walks can you have before a no-hitter doesn't mean anything anymore?

111 A.J. Burnett knows the answer, but defers to Andy Hawkins.

A.J. Burnett had nine walks in his no-hitter.

He's not throwing it back.

Ha: Here's the Post Nationals beat writer responding to a question about the new Stuffed President's Race at RFK:

Barry Svrluga: My idea: Have a 10-foot tall John Wilkes Booth in the stands ready to take Lincoln out one evening.

Didn't really go over well with team officials.

In of Nolan Ryan's no-hitters, he had 8 walks.

And 15 strikeouts.

In the 8-inning no-hitter Andy Hawkins lost, he had just five walks. Three errors were his undoing.

116 Yeah, I was just trying to be funny. Maybe I wasn't.

Burnett also hit a batter.

117
Hey, I know funny! And you sir, are funny!

Game thread is open.

Think about it; Using Ethier and Martin, we can bring up players from Las Vegas that can equal the output of all the rest of our starting position players, without a drop-off in production. And at a savings of enough salary to buy two or three starting pitchers. Part of the reason is that too many of what should be our premium players are not producing or spend half the time or more injured. At their age this is NOT going to change. As great players they are finished. The only sensible thing is to realize that and sell them off or more correctly trade them for coin of the realm (top prospects). Kent will not equal last years numbers in this year and next combined; Drew won't equal even Kent's numbers. Nomar is a different story. I think he will be productive this year and for several years to come, but we can replace his production with a kid making $340K a year instead of $10M. That's enough money to buy another good pitcher. Pitching is the one thing our farm system cannot supply at this time.