Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Though I see plenty of upside if the Dodgers' next moves are solid, I'm not completely rosy on the Andruw Jones signing, because his low on-base percentage provides no safety net if Jones' home-run power, like that of 21st-century Dodgers Shawn Green or Nomar Garciaparra, never returns.
At 6-4-2, Rob McMillin excerpts other reactions and adds his own two cents to the sobering talk:
Oddly enough, Nate Silver called Jones "closer to Hunter in reality than in perception" at the end of the season, which makes sense: low-ish OBP, higher single-season home run totals offset by a precipitous plunge from previous levels.
As to whether the deal stinks: John Beamer at The Hardball Times looked at Jones' 2007, and concluded that
If you allow me to blatantly speculate, what appears to have happened is this: in the early few weeks Andruw was trying be selective but swung hard and fast when he saw a hittable pitch. He walked a ton, got a dash of luck but didn't hit many home runs despite playing well. In an effort to dial up the power he became less selective and more ragged and his production worsened considerably. Since then he has reigned [sic] in the power, focused a little more on contact and seen a corresponding change in his peripherals.Dave Studeman posted a followup piece that same day, finding that Jones' line drive rate has been falling over the last four years:
As expected, Andruw has lost a lot of oomph on his outfield flies (despite hitting more of them), but his line drive production has also declined; in fact, it's declined each of the past four years. Add in lower production on his groundballs and more strikeouts, and you pretty much have a quadruple whammy.That is, he's just not hitting the ball hard as he used to, and therefore isn't as valuable. But allow me to back off of this particular brand of pessimism for a moment and look at the bigger picture. The first question has to be, are the Dodgers improved? The only way that can be answered in the affirmative offensively is if you believe Jones is about to have a bounceback year. That could happen, but his 2007 was so bad that it could also belie a fundamental change in his value.
Assuming he does revert to something like his age-adjusted career norms, this gives the Dodgers the unusual situation of having a centerfielder capable of carrying both his weight and Juan Pierre's, who now moves to the traditional power spot in left. The good news there is that Jones can still get it done in center (109 Rate2), so at least the comical trend of baserunners tagging from first on balls hit up the middle can come to an end. This is arguably a desperation move, but it signals something far more important, and ultimately, valuable to the Dodgers: it shows Ned Colletti understands that the Pierre contract is an albatross.
Meanwhile, Dodgers public relations director Josh Rawitch adds this at Inside the Dodgers:
(Colletti) said that this doesn't necessarily mean we'll have to move an outfielder and he likes the depth it creates in the outfield. He also said it allows us to be more focused in our quest for pitching.
He also said this makes him a little bit more comfortable about the in-house options at third base. If something comes up that is a really great option, we would do it, but pitching is the greater priority. …
Ned reached out to Juan Pierre last night to talk about how this affects him, but wasn't able to reach him. And when asked if he regrets signing Pierre, he said he absolutely does not. He can't re-write history, but he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him (only one outfielder with more than a month of experience in the Majors - Ethier). He pointed out that Juan did exactly what we expected him to do and that he has never said that Juan was a franchise player. He's a very good player on a winning team and the reason we didn't win last year was not Juan Pierre's fault.
He continued to say that as a team, we're not of a mind to give up three or four players for one star pitcher or player. He reiterated that we're not going to do something just to do it, but that we've zeroed in on two or three pitchers and will see if anything can happen. Obviously Kuroda remains a viable option. …
Meanwhile, at SportshubLA, Kevin Arnovitz reminds us of the following:
It should also be noted that Kemp is 23, Ethier 25, and Jones 30. Of course, Jones is a defensive gem, and is a huge upgrade over whomever he replaces in the outfield – and certainly over Pierre in centerfield. But, again, Jones doesn't represent any appreciable improvement over Kemp, or even Ethier, both of whose trajectories figure to rise (though Ethier's 2007 season fell a little short of his 2006 campaign), while it's doubtful that Jones will reach the heights of his 2005 totals.
Credit Colletti for securing a short-term deal and not hampering the Dodgers with a 33-year-old's $15M+ salary in 2010. Nevertheless, it's a mistake to conclude that a Dodger outfield composed of Jones in lieu of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier will give them more offense.
Please feel encouraged to add your signature to the Forgiveness Letter to Colletti.
Update: Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus is bullish on the signing - if Jones replaces Pierre:
One year or two, this is a fantastic deal for the Dodgers, who get back-end-of-peak years from a Hall of Fame player without committing to his decline phase. Jones will bounce back in 2008, and he'll be a seven-win player over the two years of the deal. That's an enormous addition for a team that has been shooting itself in the foot for too long. What it means for Ethier or Matt Kemp is something that can be hashed out, but again, the player in the way isn't Jones, it's Pierre, who was a bad signing at the time, and remains so today. The Dodgers have an opportunity to show just how well they understand sunk costs by relegating Pierre to a fourth outfielder's role, to which he'd be reasonably suited. It would also give us a chance to test the whole "character" framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That's leadership, right?
I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.
Update 2: Via e-mail, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus commented about Jones' health. He doesn't think Jones has a major issue ahead of him - but then again, Carroll doesn't think Jones had a major issue behind him, either.
"Not much here - very healthy, projects well on health, never had a serious problem, takes his conditioning very seriously," Carroll said. "I wouldn't expect much change. If there's a slight concern, it's with his knees as he's added some weight over the years."
Also, Sheehan says that Nate Silver has done Jones' 2008 PECOTA as a Dodger: .258/.345/.488, with 29 HR's.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6977
This was not a day when something this big should have happened. I actually have work to do.
Probably no better than Kemp, or Ethier for that matter. And certainly not worthy of the 5th highest salary in MLB history. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like Cody Ross puts up those numbers.
We should take a look back. Kenny Lofton was available and everybody knew that this season there was going to be some valueable center fielders hitting free agency.
I'm just worried that Pecota is predicting < 840 OPS, so no ToyCannon comments in October 2008.
Joe Sheehan is a stat oriented guy, and most of the stats suggest that Andruw Jones is in a decline phase right now. Even his periperhals from last year were bad, and backed up his dismal OBP/SLG/OPS line. He's hitting warning track fly balls instead of homers.
I think this deal is full of upside, as its at least possible Andruw Jones can be a difference maker, but to just say "he'll bounce back" which isnt based on anything but hope seems wishful thinking.
A platoon of Werth/Ross likely gets you what Andruw Jones will get at 1/5th price.
If Pierre is dealt, and the OF is Jones/Ethier/Kemp--> then its a great move. Dealing Kemp/Ethier, and sticking with Jones/Pierre is simply re-arranging furniture, with slightly better pitching (assuming something good is bought using Ethier/Kemp).
"There are rumblings in Nashville that the $36.2 million deal for Andruw Jones was Scott Boras' way of making sure that Jones' contract exceeds Torii Hunter's contract in average annual value. Jones will make $18.1 million a season compared to Hunter's $18 million per year with the Angels."
True. An .833 OPS would have ranked 6th among 15 qualifying centerfielders last season, behind such luminaries as Rowand and Hunter.
In fact, Andruw ranked 10th.
Sure if he had 100 at bats. Give him 500 at bats and he'd have a sub 300 OBP. Anybody can look special in limited at bats.
You might want to run the numbers on how many centerfielders post an OPS > 833 that play everyday. In 2007 there were 6. If A Jones does hit his Pecota and you throw in his defense he would probably only be behind Beltran/Sizemore/Granderson in overall value.
If were Ned, I would have gone no higher than $35.99999999.
Soriano - 8 years, $136 million (17 per) -- career OPS .844
C. Lee - 6 years, $100 million (16.7 per) -- career OPS .841
Hunter - 5 years, $90 million (18 per) -- career OPS .793
A. Jones - 2 years, $36.2 million (18.1 per) -- career OPS .839
Factoring in defense you would have to consider Jones the best overall player out of the four. His yearly salary is barely higher than the other three, so having it be for far less years makes it easily the best contract in my eyes.
You could claim that based on last year's stats he doesn't deserve anything close to $18M a year, but it's not like it has been a long-term downward trend:
2003 - .851 OPS
2004 - .833
2005 - .922
2006 - .894
2007 - .724
last year definitely seems to be the statistical outlier, whether it was because of a nagging injury or him pressing too hard in his walk year.
Or his age.
He's an old 30 in terms of MLB years.
I hope Kobe doesnt have a fall off around 28/29.
http://www.trolleydodger.com/2007/12/06/oh-the-irony/
for
Padilla
This seems like a good move for both teams. Padilla HR/9 rate would fall away from the unfriendly confines of being in Texas around all those crazy hicks, and the switch to the NL couldn't hurt. He'd be a decent 5th starter for us, at least better then Loiza in my minds eye.
Every time he tries to run, a sandman will try to shoot him.
If he's calling anyone, who would it be?
If Pierre still has a job, this signing only helps us defensively and by whatever we get for Kemp and Ethier in a trade. Seeing as how our offense was really bad last year, it's not that encouraging.
Which is why two years is the perfect compromise. If you had asked me on Oct 1st what I 'd want, this was it.
Personally, I'm excited about the signing of Jones, as long it doesn't result in the trading of Kemp. Even for all the negatives people have been posting about his declining offensive stats, he still brings great defense and that's a huge step up from this year. This also means we won't be signing Rowand, which would have been a bad move IMHO.
http://tinyurl.com/2faryu
(SFW, but loud on the eyes)
(No Remake -- I think we might need another letter!)
Woman Knocks Out Husband With Potato;
Dodgers Sign Her for $25 Million Over Two Years
This is the part I can't stand. No absolution without penance.
The $8.7M margin is not enough to sign a quality FA pitcher, such as Kuroda, so I would assume a high salaried player would have to be moved.
Kemp, Ethier and LaRoche would not make much of a dent in the salary picture. Pierre $8M/Loaiza $7M, on the other hand, would free a nice chunck of change to finance a quality FA pitcher, plus some fancy backup PVL.
Of course, this is based upon the assumption that Frank does not open his wallet a little wider.
Doesn't that hurt his trade value?
weren't the Dodgers better than the D-Backs and Rocks for about 9/10 of the season?
It will be interesting to see when Joe becomes more and more the face of the club, right now it is Ned's show and thus far, the kids are still here and the Winter meetings are over.
Only one more key date remains, next Wednesday, December 12th, the last day to tender contracts.
Here are the Dodgers who can be non-tendered (with their 2007 salary) that day:
1. Joe Beimel (912K)
2. Yhency Brazoban (395K)
3. Mark Hendrickson (2.9M)
4. Scott Proctor (412K)
5. Jason Repko (395K)
My hunch is that the Dodgers will try to work a deal with Repko (especially given the Jones deal and Delwyn's option situation (he is out of them) like they tried with Jayson Werth. Beimel, Brazoban and Proctor will get contracts.
The question is Hendrickson, given that Ned is on record on not giving a lot of money for middle relievers and if they can sign Kuroda, they will have in camp, Penny, Lowe, Billingsly, Loiaza, Schmidt, Kuo, Orenduff, McDonald, Elbert, Kershaw, Stults, and Hull. Do they need another 3+ million dollar insurance plan in Hendrickson?
How are you handling the bonus? Are you spreading it over two years or putting it all into 2008?
Jenny Agutter turns 55 in two weeks.
Of course, as I said last night, I'm not making any judgments until I see what happens with Pierre.
Didn't Hernandez say that Jones said it was a positive thing?
Okay, Ned. You got it. Actually, we've been looking at the circumstances all along. And the circumstances were that you already had a young stud centerfielder who would put up a 125 OPS+ and relegated him to spending much of the year in AAA and on the bench.
You boys talk the numbers talk really well. What I'm interested in is the question of chemistry: will the addition of Andrew Jones make the clubhouse more relaxed, or less? Is he a team player or an individualist? Is he good friends already with anyone of the Dodgers organization, players or managers?
From Ken G's article on Dodgers.com , and got the impression that Jones and Furcal are good buddies from their time together with the Braves. Furcal, according to Ken's article, played a key role in smoozing up the Dodgers at crucial times in the negotiating process.
Everyone talks about the Kids. IMHO one of the most impressive aspects of Martin-Kemp-Ethier-Loney's game over and above their impressive numbers) is the Fun Factor. They have fun playing baseball, and it shows, and I love it.
Add to this Andruw Jones and Furcal's friendship and it looks like the Dodgers in 2008 will be much improved, in more ways than mere performance figures.
That being said,Kemp is probably still trade fodder for a Bedard,a trade that would help the Dodgers even though most of us would hate to lose him.
I didn´t know that Andruw was hurt.
ESPN in their story reported the following for Andruw's payout:
2008: $9m salary + $5.1m bonus
2009: $15m salary + $2.1m bonus
2010: $5m bonus
Kobe is already passed that age.
He reported no pain when signing the contract.
• The Dodgers' signing of Andruw Jones sparked talk Thursday that they were going to turn around and include Matt Kemp in a big offer for Johan Santana. Checked that out and couldn't find any evidence the Dodgers are in on Santana or plan to be. There are rumblings that they actually have more interest in Erik Bedard. That deal would probably be a 4-for-1 swap centered around their best pitching prospect, Clayton Kershaw, and either Kemp or Andre Ethier. But it appears the Dodgers prefer to explore less pricey options first, such as free agent Hiroki Kuroda or a deal for Oakland's Joe Blanton.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=winter_meetings
Works for me!
The only thing you have to know is that Andruw Jones has two years to put up monster numbers so he can get his huge contract.
That should be motivation enough.
But 2007 was a contract year too, and he sucked.
Granted, his penalty for said sucking was the 5th highest salary in MLB history, but still...
Just don't let him play hurt.
http://tinyurl.com/qtys9
The conclusion: there's no correlation between player ability and quality of play in the "contract" year.
http://tinyurl.com/22n7mt
http://tinyurl.com/yolgnx
i wish i could remember where i read it but i read an article showing Jones' offensive production last year.
his stats through the season looked like a rollercoaster.
he had a 2 or 3 cortizone injections and after each shot his stats were peaked, and would stay good for a while then tail off to terrible before he would get another shot.
so basically, painless her was very good, and in pain he was very bad.
it also said he actually had 2 injuries, elbow and knee or shoulder...i forget.
Special players like him can't be looked at from the perspective of a regular major league player.
Its possible he won't bounce back and have a precipitous decline but I honestly don't think that is the case.
He is 30 years old and in relatively good health. He got off to a bad start last year and then his elbow started bothering him but he played through it. If he rested it and played healthy, his numbers could have ended up a lot differently.
We'll see how this plays out in real life but on paper, this is a good buy low gamble...Buy low in the sense that if he had a normal year last year, it would have been at least 100mil over 5 yrs instead of 2/36
The Padres declined to offer Bradley arbitration last week, though they have a better idea now, medically, where he's at.
I'm offended that you thought I would be offended.
And I didn't major in English.
Must be some unnamed young pitcher.
They don't have any decent young pitchers besides Troy Patton.
"In Baltimore's case, teams seeking Bedard would also have to take on one of the team's albatross contracts, especially that of Melvin Mora. No one wants to do that."
Also in the Oakland Tribune, Beane says he won't trade Haren or Blanton unless the other team is "extremely generous."
Could Ned make a case for trading Kemp for anything less than Bedard, Haren or Santana? No. But Kemp's availability is not the only obstacle to obtaining those pitchers.
I think Kemp's staying. I don't think we're getting any of those pitchers.
(cross posted from the forgiveness thread)
I leave to you where on the rumor food chain that lies.
Fingers crossed, but this is a nice offseason so far.
"Logan's Run" made awful looking 1970s style shopping malls look like the coolest place to live.
The movie is fun to watch.
Everyone talks about Juan Pierre as if he writes the lineup and you have to negotiate with him on his playing time. Starting players lose their jobs in baseball all the time. Why is Pierre different?
Is it because managers just hate to see the lil' fella cry?
Doing the math and working back to the time when the film came out, I would think Jon, Sam, and I would like "Logan's Run" a lot.
Although I don't think we were appreciating the screenplay.
I am not too big on the Jones signing merely because I would rather see Kemp, Etheir and Young in the outfield next year.
SKIP
This is the toughest job a manager has ...
(deep breath)
But the organization has decided to make a change ...
Except Pierre was signed to do exactly what he did last year. I would be annoyed if I was him to be relegated to the 4th OF spot. Of course, it would be nice to have the contract, but if you don't love or at least enjoy what you do for a living, it is tough to be happy.
No, but I've heard the Warren Zevon song along those lines.
Let's bring in Alec Baldwin:
"Your name is "you're wanting", and you can't play the man's game, you can't close them, and then tell your wife your troubles. 'Cause only one thing counts in this world: get them to sign on the line which is dotted."
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=695
Gerrit Cole going 6 to the Marlins would make me sad...I like him a lot.
What 67 said.
Again, trading one of the youngsters does not free up enough $$$$ to sign a high value SP.
Nomar has a no trade contract and Kent might retire if traded. That leaves JP and Loaiza as the most dispensable high salaried Dodgers.
A trade to the Rangers or Whitesox would not be out of the question. In return take on one poor contract like Crede or Blalock that could be moved later to someone needing a warm body at 3B (Philadelphia?). This not intended in any way to be an excuse for trading LaRoche, whom I really like.
Anyway, at least Andruw doesn't live in the world of Logan's Run.
Pierre + 9 million dollars to White Sox for Jose Contreras.
The White Sox end up paying Pierre 28.5M for 4 years vs. 20M to Contreras for 2. The Dodgers are paying a lot for Contreras but he is probably tradeable down the road if he can pitch well in the NL.
To complete the Dave Roberts cycle?
Is the Dave Roberts cycle similar to the Krebs cycle?
Or as Penarol and I like to call it, the DRC.
That would be the general idea about how to flip JP. We flip our bad contract for yours but each team fills a void. Jose doesn't really fill a void but he could be insurance for Schmidt and we would have 2/5 of the 2004 White Sox rotation. I think I'll peruse the league and find out what others teams match up with bad contracts. The league is full of them.
"I don't want to use what I may have to use for pitching to take care of [third base]," Colletti said.
My question is, SOMETHING must have justified the contract, other than fear-based spending by Ned (I can't imagine he was getting "3 years/$28 mil" offers and out of nowhere, we offer 5). At the time, did the rest of the majors feel Pierre had SOME value at least kind of justifying the contract? I can't fathom how a guy could go from meriting 5 years/$40mil to having to beg people to take him, when, after one year, he essentially did what he's done every year...
I can't figure out what it means...
In short, great move Ned and I hope that it is a sign of positive things to come.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.