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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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More Perspective on the Jones Signing
2007-12-06 08:59
by Jon Weisman

Though I see plenty of upside if the Dodgers' next moves are solid, I'm not completely rosy on the Andruw Jones signing, because his low on-base percentage provides no safety net if Jones' home-run power, like that of 21st-century Dodgers Shawn Green or Nomar Garciaparra, never returns.

At 6-4-2, Rob McMillin excerpts other reactions and adds his own two cents to the sobering talk:

Oddly enough, Nate Silver called Jones "closer to Hunter in reality than in perception" at the end of the season, which makes sense: low-ish OBP, higher single-season home run totals offset by a precipitous plunge from previous levels.

As to whether the deal stinks: John Beamer at The Hardball Times looked at Jones' 2007, and concluded that

If you allow me to blatantly speculate, what appears to have happened is this: in the early few weeks Andruw was trying be selective but swung hard and fast when he saw a hittable pitch. He walked a ton, got a dash of luck but didn't hit many home runs despite playing well. In an effort to dial up the power he became less selective and more ragged and his production worsened considerably. Since then he has reigned [sic] in the power, focused a little more on contact and seen a corresponding change in his peripherals.
Dave Studeman posted a followup piece that same day, finding that Jones' line drive rate has been falling over the last four years:

As expected, Andruw has lost a lot of oomph on his outfield flies (despite hitting more of them), but his line drive production has also declined; in fact, it's declined each of the past four years. Add in lower production on his groundballs and more strikeouts, and you pretty much have a quadruple whammy.
That is, he's just not hitting the ball hard as he used to, and therefore isn't as valuable. But allow me to back off of this particular brand of pessimism for a moment and look at the bigger picture. The first question has to be, are the Dodgers improved? The only way that can be answered in the affirmative offensively is if you believe Jones is about to have a bounceback year. That could happen, but his 2007 was so bad that it could also belie a fundamental change in his value.

Assuming he does revert to something like his age-adjusted career norms, this gives the Dodgers the unusual situation of having a centerfielder capable of carrying both his weight and Juan Pierre's, who now moves to the traditional power spot in left. The good news there is that Jones can still get it done in center (109 Rate2), so at least the comical trend of baserunners tagging from first on balls hit up the middle can come to an end. This is arguably a desperation move, but it signals something far more important, and ultimately, valuable to the Dodgers: it shows Ned Colletti understands that the Pierre contract is an albatross.

Meanwhile, Dodgers public relations director Josh Rawitch adds this at Inside the Dodgers:

(Colletti) said that this doesn't necessarily mean we'll have to move an outfielder and he likes the depth it creates in the outfield. He also said it allows us to be more focused in our quest for pitching.

He also said this makes him a little bit more comfortable about the in-house options at third base. If something comes up that is a really great option, we would do it, but pitching is the greater priority. …

Ned reached out to Juan Pierre last night to talk about how this affects him, but wasn't able to reach him. And when asked if he regrets signing Pierre, he said he absolutely does not. He can't re-write history, but he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him (only one outfielder with more than a month of experience in the Majors - Ethier). He pointed out that Juan did exactly what we expected him to do and that he has never said that Juan was a franchise player. He's a very good player on a winning team and the reason we didn't win last year was not Juan Pierre's fault.

He continued to say that as a team, we're not of a mind to give up three or four players for one star pitcher or player. He reiterated that we're not going to do something just to do it, but that we've zeroed in on two or three pitchers and will see if anything can happen. Obviously Kuroda remains a viable option. …

Meanwhile, at SportshubLA, Kevin Arnovitz reminds us of the following:

It should also be noted that Kemp is 23, Ethier 25, and Jones 30. Of course, Jones is a defensive gem, and is a huge upgrade over whomever he replaces in the outfield – and certainly over Pierre in centerfield. But, again, Jones doesn't represent any appreciable improvement over Kemp, or even Ethier, both of whose trajectories figure to rise (though Ethier's 2007 season fell a little short of his 2006 campaign), while it's doubtful that Jones will reach the heights of his 2005 totals.

Credit Colletti for securing a short-term deal and not hampering the Dodgers with a 33-year-old's $15M+ salary in 2010. Nevertheless, it's a mistake to conclude that a Dodger outfield composed of Jones in lieu of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier will give them more offense.

Please feel encouraged to add your signature to the Forgiveness Letter to Colletti.

Update: Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus is bullish on the signing - if Jones replaces Pierre:

One year or two, this is a fantastic deal for the Dodgers, who get back-end-of-peak years from a Hall of Fame player without committing to his decline phase. Jones will bounce back in 2008, and he'll be a seven-win player over the two years of the deal. That's an enormous addition for a team that has been shooting itself in the foot for too long. What it means for Ethier or Matt Kemp is something that can be hashed out, but again, the player in the way isn't Jones, it's Pierre, who was a bad signing at the time, and remains so today. The Dodgers have an opportunity to show just how well they understand sunk costs by relegating Pierre to a fourth outfielder's role, to which he'd be reasonably suited. It would also give us a chance to test the whole "character" framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That's leadership, right?

I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

Update 2: Via e-mail, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus commented about Jones' health. He doesn't think Jones has a major issue ahead of him - but then again, Carroll doesn't think Jones had a major issue behind him, either.

"Not much here - very healthy, projects well on health, never had a serious problem, takes his conditioning very seriously," Carroll said. "I wouldn't expect much change. If there's a slight concern, it's with his knees as he's added some weight over the years."

Comments (166)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-12-06 09:55:45
1.   CanuckDodger
Joe Sheehan says he "loves" the Jones' contract and calls it the best move any team will make this winter.

Also, Sheehan says that Nate Silver has done Jones' 2008 PECOTA as a Dodger: .258/.345/.488, with 29 HR's.

2007-12-06 09:56:30
2.   ToyCannon
I like the Joe Sheehan take much better.

This was not a day when something this big should have happened. I actually have work to do.

2007-12-06 09:57:36
3.   Jon Weisman
1/2 - Just as I was adding it to my post - we all found it at the same time, I think.
2007-12-06 09:59:17
4.   D4P
Jones' 2008 PECOTA as a Dodger: .258/.345/.488

Probably no better than Kemp, or Ethier for that matter. And certainly not worthy of the 5th highest salary in MLB history. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like Cody Ross puts up those numbers.

2007-12-06 10:04:05
5.   PennyJavy
"he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him (only one outfielder with more than a month of experience in the Majors - Ethier)."

We should take a look back. Kenny Lofton was available and everybody knew that this season there was going to be some valueable center fielders hitting free agency.

2007-12-06 10:04:58
6.   Daniel Zappala
4 Some allowance needs to be made that he plays CF.

I'm just worried that Pecota is predicting < 840 OPS, so no ToyCannon comments in October 2008.

2007-12-06 10:06:42
7.   JoeyP
What exactly is the hope for a "bounce back" year?

Joe Sheehan is a stat oriented guy, and most of the stats suggest that Andruw Jones is in a decline phase right now. Even his periperhals from last year were bad, and backed up his dismal OBP/SLG/OPS line. He's hitting warning track fly balls instead of homers.

I think this deal is full of upside, as its at least possible Andruw Jones can be a difference maker, but to just say "he'll bounce back" which isnt based on anything but hope seems wishful thinking.

A platoon of Werth/Ross likely gets you what Andruw Jones will get at 1/5th price.

If Pierre is dealt, and the OF is Jones/Ethier/Kemp--> then its a great move. Dealing Kemp/Ethier, and sticking with Jones/Pierre is simply re-arranging furniture, with slightly better pitching (assuming something good is bought using Ethier/Kemp).

2007-12-06 10:06:44
8.   fanerman
Does Ned calling up Pierre and not Kemp/Ethier mean anything? Other than that Juan Pierre is a high-priced free agent and Kemp/Ethier are not? Perhaps he's calling to say, "Yup. You're the 4th outfielder now. Gotta take one for the team. Merry Christmas."
2007-12-06 10:07:54
9.   Robert Daeley
From Jerry Crasnick at (behind the pay wall I think):

"There are rumblings in Nashville that the $36.2 million deal for Andruw Jones was Scott Boras' way of making sure that Jones' contract exceeds Torii Hunter's contract in average annual value. Jones will make $18.1 million a season compared to Hunter's $18 million per year with the Angels."

2007-12-06 10:08:55
10.   D4P
Some allowance needs to be made that he plays CF

True. An .833 OPS would have ranked 6th among 15 qualifying centerfielders last season, behind such luminaries as Rowand and Hunter.

In fact, Andruw ranked 10th.

2007-12-06 10:09:14
11.   Jon Weisman
That Hardball Times article on Jones linked above is really worth a look.
2007-12-06 10:09:29
12.   ToyCannon
Sure if he had 100 at bats. Give him 500 at bats and he'd have a sub 300 OBP. Anybody can look special in limited at bats.
You might want to run the numbers on how many centerfielders post an OPS > 833 that play everyday. In 2007 there were 6. If A Jones does hit his Pecota and you throw in his defense he would probably only be behind Beltran/Sizemore/Granderson in overall value.
2007-12-06 10:11:05
13.   D4P
If were Ned, I would have gone no higher than $35.99999999.
2007-12-06 10:11:35
14.   overkill94
Which of these recent free agent outfielder signings would be considered the worst?

Soriano - 8 years, $136 million (17 per) -- career OPS .844
C. Lee - 6 years, $100 million (16.7 per) -- career OPS .841
Hunter - 5 years, $90 million (18 per) -- career OPS .793
A. Jones - 2 years, $36.2 million (18.1 per) -- career OPS .839

Factoring in defense you would have to consider Jones the best overall player out of the four. His yearly salary is barely higher than the other three, so having it be for far less years makes it easily the best contract in my eyes.

You could claim that based on last year's stats he doesn't deserve anything close to $18M a year, but it's not like it has been a long-term downward trend:

2003 - .851 OPS
2004 - .833
2005 - .922
2006 - .894
2007 - .724

last year definitely seems to be the statistical outlier, whether it was because of a nagging injury or him pressing too hard in his walk year.

2007-12-06 10:12:26
15.   JoeyP
Will Dodger Stadium let Andruw hit more homers than Turner Field?
2007-12-06 10:12:37
16.   LogikReader
It's so fitting that all those GMs picked Hunter over Jones. It's interesting to note: I was intrigued to compare Jones and Hunter all year in 2008, and it is remarkably convenient to have them play on teams in the same market!
2007-12-06 10:13:52
17.   JoeyP
last year definitely seems to be the statistical outlier, whether it was because of a nagging injury or him pressing too hard in his walk year

Or his age.
He's an old 30 in terms of MLB years.

I hope Kobe doesnt have a fall off around 28/29.

2007-12-06 10:15:48
18.   underdog
How much of Jones down year last year have to do with his health, or not being 100%? What are the feelings about that? I still really feel like this is a great deal, especially when you look at the list overkill posts above. Anyway, we've all said it - if this relegates Pierre to the bench or another team, it's a particularly fantastic move. I guess even if Pierre's starting occasionally but not always (and I think Joe Torre would lean that way because he's less worried about feelings than Grady was) then even that improves the team. My only disagreement with Sheehan is that I don't think this brings the Dodgers a little bit closer to the DBacks, I think they have to been seen as pretty darned even (and frankly, I thought that before this deal).
2007-12-06 10:16:26
19.   Robert Daeley
As this video shows, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre are not unfamiliar with each other:

2007-12-06 10:16:54
20.   underdog
It's a scary world when 30 is considered old, even in sports terms. Heck, I'm 37 and still playing soccer as well as I ever did. (Which is to say, not all that well. But healthy and still with a quick step!)
2007-12-06 10:19:02
21.   Daniel Zappala
10 The CF who no longer exists was 20th. There is a cost to improving through free agency. I get that you disagree with the cost of the contract, but this does significantly improve the team over other alternatives.
2007-12-06 10:20:04
22.   Zach the Ripper
Juan Pierre + 10 Mil + Meloan



This seems like a good move for both teams. Padilla HR/9 rate would fall away from the unfriendly confines of being in Texas around all those crazy hicks, and the switch to the NL couldn't hurt. He'd be a decent 5th starter for us, at least better then Loiza in my minds eye.

2007-12-06 10:20:05
23.   fanerman
8 Nobody else is reading anything in the "Ned tries to call Juan" comment?
2007-12-06 10:21:00
24.   fiddlestick
FWIW, in Buster Olney's column, he cites a mysterious "National League Executive" as saying the Nomar's not only competing for a position in spring training, but that he's competing for a spot on the roster and that he may be cut.
2007-12-06 10:21:34
25.   Bob Timmermann
I believe Andruw Jones has a flashing red light on his palm and he's headed to Carousel.

Every time he tries to run, a sandman will try to shoot him.

2007-12-06 10:22:43
26.   fiddlestick
23 Juan Pierre is the centerfielder. Coletti just signed a centerfielder. Neither Ethier nor Kemp are centerfielders (of course they could be, blah blah).

If he's calling anyone, who would it be?

2007-12-06 10:22:57
27.   Zach the Ripper
Also Padilla's lefthandedness would balance our rotation.
2007-12-06 10:23:04
28.   LogikReader
Juan Pierre in Texas could boost his home run total to... one.
2007-12-06 10:25:53
29.   blue22
27 - Vincente Padilla is RH, I believe.
2007-12-06 10:25:59
30.   Peanuts in My Shoes
23. Just that Pierre was the CF and no longer is the CF.
2007-12-06 10:26:42
31.   underdog
This was asked in the previous thread, but is anyone tracking Ken Rosenthal's predictions over the past week? Was he right about anything? Anything at all? I really hope the Dodgers are reading his columns - and doing the opposite of everything. "He says we should trade Matt Kemp. So we'll trade Pierre! Check."
2007-12-06 10:28:20
32.   underdog
Padilla does throw righthanded, yep. Still, if he gives us a Pierre Out, I'm for it.
2007-12-06 10:30:35
33.   JoeyP
20--Its not that he's 30, its because he's been in the big leagues since he was 19 and has played just about everyday. Plus, playing a position that requires a great deal of athleticism.
2007-12-06 10:31:00
34.   Jon Weisman
23 - It's interesting, but all we can do is speculate.
2007-12-06 10:31:14
35.   paranoidandroid
24 At the very least, Nomar will take Olmedo's spot on the bench. I can't see us cutting him in spring training. He has an upside too. Let's not forget what he can do if he's healthy and in a groove.
2007-12-06 10:31:22
36.   Jon Weisman
25 - I don't think I ever get tired of Logan's Run references.
2007-12-06 10:32:08
37.   regfairfield
It's hard to judge this signing until we learn what the next move is. If we drop Ethier, we see almost no offensive improvement, two or three runs at most. Drop Kemp, we probably get worse offensively.

If Pierre still has a job, this signing only helps us defensively and by whatever we get for Kemp and Ethier in a trade. Seeing as how our offense was really bad last year, it's not that encouraging.

2007-12-06 10:33:36
38.   ToyCannon
Which is why two years is the perfect compromise. If you had asked me on Oct 1st what I 'd want, this was it.
2007-12-06 10:34:47
39.   oklahomadodger
So first we sign Furcal from Atlanta, then we sign Jones from Atlanta. When is Chipper's contract up, sounds like he's next. Maybe we shoulda tried to hire Bobby Cox instead of Torre.

Personally, I'm excited about the signing of Jones, as long it doesn't result in the trading of Kemp. Even for all the negatives people have been posting about his declining offensive stats, he still brings great defense and that's a huge step up from this year. This also means we won't be signing Rowand, which would have been a bad move IMHO.

2007-12-06 10:35:27
40.   Sam DC
36 "Stay up-to-date with the latest Logan's Run remake news and gossip!"

(SFW, but loud on the eyes)

(No Remake -- I think we might need another letter!)

2007-12-06 10:37:09
41.   fiddlestick
35-- I agree. There's zero chance someone wouldn't pick him up and we'd be paying him to play somewhere else.
2007-12-06 10:38:05
42.   StolenMonkey86
13 - Logan White would have done $36,000,000.02.
2007-12-06 10:38:43
43.   Bumsrap
Like McCourt said, Pierre's contract will look better as salaries continue to go up. Who might the dodgers package with Pierre to get a pitcher assuming they no longer feel a need to get a third baseman?
2007-12-06 10:39:02
44.   Jon Weisman
Headline on Deadspin:

Woman Knocks Out Husband With Potato;
Dodgers Sign Her for $25 Million Over Two Years

2007-12-06 10:40:00
45.   Andrew Shimmin
but he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him

This is the part I can't stand. No absolution without penance.

2007-12-06 10:42:12
46.   Ben P
What I've enjoyed in reading the press coverage is seeing that the recognition that Pierre is a bad offensive player is seeping into even the mainstream press, not just the blogs and "stat" publications. The AP story matter-of-factly references "light-hitting Juan Pierre." Not long ago it would have been "proven leadoff man Juan Pierre."
2007-12-06 10:43:23
47.   Bumsrap
44 - And dieticians continue to try to tell us that it isn't the patato but the stuff we put on the patato that hurts us.
2007-12-06 10:43:49
48.   fanerman
46 That's because we didn't win last season. If we made it to the playoffs, it would have been "proven leadoff man."
2007-12-06 10:44:46
49.   Bumsrap
proven leadoff man hitting second
2007-12-06 10:47:53
50.   MJW101
The current 2008 Dodger salary is at about $108.321 plus $3.15M in non-roster salary owed for a total of about $111.471M which is about &8.7M less than the final 2007 salary total.

The $8.7M margin is not enough to sign a quality FA pitcher, such as Kuroda, so I would assume a high salaried player would have to be moved.

Kemp, Ethier and LaRoche would not make much of a dent in the salary picture. Pierre $8M/Loaiza $7M, on the other hand, would free a nice chunck of change to finance a quality FA pitcher, plus some fancy backup PVL.

Of course, this is based upon the assumption that Frank does not open his wallet a little wider.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-12-06 10:49:48
51.   Kevin Lewis

Doesn't that hurt his trade value?

2007-12-06 10:52:45
52.   Jon Weisman
46 - And yet Dylan Hernandez in the Times passed along the idea of Pierre batting in front of Jones as a positive thing.
2007-12-06 10:53:57
53.   D Money
I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

weren't the Dodgers better than the D-Backs and Rocks for about 9/10 of the season?

2007-12-06 10:54:16
54.   bhsportsguy
37 I would agree with that, I think we will learn more next week when we have the press conference.

It will be interesting to see when Joe becomes more and more the face of the club, right now it is Ned's show and thus far, the kids are still here and the Winter meetings are over.

Only one more key date remains, next Wednesday, December 12th, the last day to tender contracts.

Here are the Dodgers who can be non-tendered (with their 2007 salary) that day:
1. Joe Beimel (912K)
2. Yhency Brazoban (395K)
3. Mark Hendrickson (2.9M)
4. Scott Proctor (412K)
5. Jason Repko (395K)

My hunch is that the Dodgers will try to work a deal with Repko (especially given the Jones deal and Delwyn's option situation (he is out of them) like they tried with Jayson Werth. Beimel, Brazoban and Proctor will get contracts.

The question is Hendrickson, given that Ned is on record on not giving a lot of money for middle relievers and if they can sign Kuroda, they will have in camp, Penny, Lowe, Billingsly, Loiaza, Schmidt, Kuo, Orenduff, McDonald, Elbert, Kershaw, Stults, and Hull. Do they need another 3+ million dollar insurance plan in Hendrickson?

2007-12-06 10:55:01
55.   ToyCannon
How are you handling the bonus? Are you spreading it over two years or putting it all into 2008?
2007-12-06 10:55:08
56.   Bob Timmermann
Jenny Agutter turns 55 in two weeks.
2007-12-06 10:56:58
57.   KG16
If the reports are true that Jones played last year with a hyper-extended elbow, without telling anyone, then I would expect a big bounce back year from him.

Of course, as I said last night, I'm not making any judgments until I see what happens with Pierre.

2007-12-06 10:57:44
58.   StolenMonkey86
24 - Nomar for backup catcher?
2007-12-06 10:57:53
59.   D4P
And yet Dylan Hernandez in the Times passed along the idea of Pierre batting in front of Jones as a positive thing

Didn't Hernandez say that Jones said it was a positive thing?

2007-12-06 10:58:07
60.   bhsportsguy
Can you imagine this board if we were rumored to deal Chad for Alex Rios?
2007-12-06 10:58:26
61.   Eric Enders
"he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him"

Okay, Ned. You got it. Actually, we've been looking at the circumstances all along. And the circumstances were that you already had a young stud centerfielder who would put up a 125 OPS+ and relegated him to spending much of the year in AAA and on the bench.

2007-12-06 10:58:42
62.   Connector
Hi everybody -
You boys talk the numbers talk really well. What I'm interested in is the question of chemistry: will the addition of Andrew Jones make the clubhouse more relaxed, or less? Is he a team player or an individualist? Is he good friends already with anyone of the Dodgers organization, players or managers?
From Ken G's article on , and got the impression that Jones and Furcal are good buddies from their time together with the Braves. Furcal, according to Ken's article, played a key role in smoozing up the Dodgers at crucial times in the negotiating process.
Everyone talks about the Kids. IMHO one of the most impressive aspects of Martin-Kemp-Ethier-Loney's game over and above their impressive numbers) is the Fun Factor. They have fun playing baseball, and it shows, and I love it.
Add to this Andruw Jones and Furcal's friendship and it looks like the Dodgers in 2008 will be much improved, in more ways than mere performance figures.
2007-12-06 10:59:05
63.   still bevens
53 And the D-Backs are losing Livan Hernandez too boot!@ Nowhere to go but down for the snakes. Haw.
2007-12-06 11:00:20
64.   regfairfield
60 That would certainly give us a nice outfield defense. I love Alex Rios. Not enough to give up Chad, but he's a mighty fine player.
2007-12-06 11:00:59
65.   hart01
I agree with most of the posts.The Jones signing has many positive ramifications in that none of our young talent was sacrificed to add some power and defense to a club that needed both elements.I do agree that Jones talents are on the wane and he probably wont put up the numbers he had in earlier years.I can live with the club not doing much else.Every club needs a good 4th outfielder and Pierre can fit this role well.Look around the league.You will find other good teams with players of lesser ability than Pierre as 4th outfielders/pinch hitters.
That being said,Kemp is probably still trade fodder for a Bedard,a trade that would help the Dodgers even though most of us would hate to lose him.
2007-12-06 11:01:04
66.   Ricardo
"Jones is still one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, and up until 2007 -- when he allegedly played with a hyper-extended elbow -- was good for an OBP near .350 and 30-40 homers every year"

I didn´t know that Andruw was hurt.

2007-12-06 11:02:36
67.   Eric Stephen
50 ,55
ESPN in their story reported the following for Andruw's payout:

2008: $9m salary + $5.1m bonus
2009: $15m salary + $2.1m bonus
2010: $5m bonus

2007-12-06 11:02:39
68.   D4P
What evidence do we have that Andruw's elbow is back to an acceptable extension level?
2007-12-06 11:03:23
69.   D Money
Kobe is already passed that age.
2007-12-06 11:04:06
70.   Eric Stephen
He reported no pain when signing the contract.
2007-12-06 11:04:14
71.   trojanmansaki
1:44 p.m., from Jerry Crasnick
• The Dodgers' signing of Andruw Jones sparked talk Thursday that they were going to turn around and include Matt Kemp in a big offer for Johan Santana. Checked that out and couldn't find any evidence the Dodgers are in on Santana or plan to be. There are rumblings that they actually have more interest in Erik Bedard. That deal would probably be a 4-for-1 swap centered around their best pitching prospect, Clayton Kershaw, and either Kemp or Andre Ethier. But it appears the Dodgers prefer to explore less pricey options first, such as free agent Hiroki Kuroda or a deal for Oakland's Joe Blanton.

2007-12-06 11:05:25
72.   D4P
Works for me!
2007-12-06 11:05:46
73.   natepurcell

The only thing you have to know is that Andruw Jones has two years to put up monster numbers so he can get his huge contract.

That should be motivation enough.

2007-12-06 11:07:39
74.   Jon Weisman
59 - hence, "passed along the idea"
2007-12-06 11:08:02
75.   Jon Weisman
73 - A lot of good that motivation did him in '07.
2007-12-06 11:08:36
76.   regfairfield
73 Didn't work too well this year.
2007-12-06 11:08:40
77.   D4P
But 2007 was a contract year too, and he sucked.

Granted, his penalty for said sucking was the 5th highest salary in MLB history, but still...

2007-12-06 11:09:45
78.   ryu
46 On the flip side, we have to hope his value doesn't completely crash in the eyes of the media and GMs. Else he becomes an overpaid player that's not tradable.
2007-12-06 11:10:12
79.   natepurcell
He was hurt.

Just don't let him play hurt.

2007-12-06 11:13:13
80.   Eric Enders
One side benefit of all this is that we give up no draft picks, since Andruw wasn't offered arbitration (and I believe may have been a Type B FA anyway), and when he leaves, assuming he plays his way back to Type A status, we'll get two first-round picks for him.
2007-12-06 11:14:42
81.   bhsportsguy
80 Atlanta did offer him arbitration but he is only a Type B FA.
2007-12-06 11:16:19
82.   Bob Timmermann
Here's Phil Birnbaum's PowerPoint presentation about whether or not players outperform expectations in a contract year.

The conclusion: there's no correlation between player ability and quality of play in the "contract" year.

2007-12-06 11:17:35
83.   Ben P
52 - Assuming the worst -- that we trade or bench Ethier or Kemp and Pierre plays 162 games in LF -- do we have any educated guesses on where Torre would bat Pierre? Nothing from his time with the Yankees tells me that he would want to put Mr. Speed-but-no-Power into the No. 2 slot. Hopefully Joe sees the wisdom of putting Russell Martin into that slot instead of just valuing speed there.
2007-12-06 11:18:40
84.   Nagman
Padres appear to be keeping up with the Joneses. reportedly on the verge of re-signing Bradley.
2007-12-06 11:19:17
85.   Eric Enders
81 They did not offer him arbitration.

2007-12-06 11:19:23
86.   regfairfield
83 First or second, just like Tony Womack until he completely fell apart (i.e. much worse than Pierre).
2007-12-06 11:19:39
87.   bhsportsguy
70 Eric can you email me at thanks.
2007-12-06 11:21:36
88.   D Money
i wish i could remember where i read it but i read an article showing Jones' offensive production last year.
his stats through the season looked like a rollercoaster.
he had a 2 or 3 cortizone injections and after each shot his stats were peaked, and would stay good for a while then tail off to terrible before he would get another shot.
so basically, painless her was very good, and in pain he was very bad.
it also said he actually had 2 injuries, elbow and knee or shoulder...i forget.
2007-12-06 11:21:52
89.   natepurcell
Like many people have said before, Andruw Jones is a rare baseball talent that was on a HOF pace before last year.

Special players like him can't be looked at from the perspective of a regular major league player.

Its possible he won't bounce back and have a precipitous decline but I honestly don't think that is the case.

He is 30 years old and in relatively good health. He got off to a bad start last year and then his elbow started bothering him but he played through it. If he rested it and played healthy, his numbers could have ended up a lot differently.

We'll see how this plays out in real life but on paper, this is a good buy low gamble...Buy low in the sense that if he had a normal year last year, it would have been at least 100mil over 5 yrs instead of 2/36

2007-12-06 11:22:03
90.   Eric Enders
It's hard to speculate on what Torre will do with Pierre because after spending nearly his entire Yankees career without a prototypical leadoff hitter, he now has two. I wouldn't be suprised to see Pierre 2nd, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him 8th either. After all, Torre doesn't have A-Rod to bat 8th anymore.
2007-12-06 11:22:48
91.   StolenMonkey86
84 - reports it's done. The last paragraph of the story is sure to bring joy to english majors everywhere:

The Padres declined to offer Bradley arbitration last week, though they have a better idea now, medically, where he's at.

2007-12-06 11:24:21
92.   StolenMonkey86
I apologize for the potential rule 7 violation in 91 .
2007-12-06 11:24:32
93.   Eric Enders
One year, $3.5 million. That's a steal for SD.
2007-12-06 11:25:38
94.   Bob Timmermann
I'm offended that you thought I would be offended.

And I didn't major in English.

2007-12-06 11:26:55
95.   Sam DC
Rumor warning: Folks in Natsland are buzzing after someone in Houston heard a report on the local sportsradio that a Tejada for Everett, Burke, plus an unnamed young pitcher was about to go down.

Must be some unnamed young pitcher.

2007-12-06 11:27:37
96.   Andrew Shimmin
How much of the season is Bradley expected to play, assuming the injury he's coming back from is the only one he suffers in 2008?
2007-12-06 11:27:51
97.   natepurcell

They don't have any decent young pitchers besides Troy Patton.

2007-12-06 11:29:29
98.   Jim Hitchcock
56 Don't care. She's still a babe.
2007-12-06 11:29:40
99.   Dark Horse
96-I'd put the over/under, rather generously, at 80 games.
2007-12-06 11:30:18
100.   Eric Enders
95 Why on earth would Baltimore want to make that deal? I know Tejada's on the decline, but trading him for basically nothing seems like an overreaction.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-12-06 11:30:20
101.   wave of mutilation
I am basically with Joe Sheehan on this signing. I am optimistic about Pierre moving though. I think any team would require Kemp and Kershaw in a deal for a front line pitcher which I think Ned will balk at. Hopefully we get Pierre out of the lineup before June.
2007-12-06 11:31:13
102.   Sam DC
98 I think it's been established before that Jenny Agutter is pretty high up on the DT pantheon.
2007-12-06 11:31:27
103.   dzzrtRatt
An angle on trading for Bedard from the Sporting News' Sean Deveney (

"In Baltimore's case, teams seeking Bedard would also have to take on one of the team's albatross contracts, especially that of Melvin Mora. No one wants to do that."

Also in the Oakland Tribune, Beane says he won't trade Haren or Blanton unless the other team is "extremely generous."

Could Ned make a case for trading Kemp for anything less than Bedard, Haren or Santana? No. But Kemp's availability is not the only obstacle to obtaining those pitchers.

I think Kemp's staying. I don't think we're getting any of those pitchers.

(cross posted from the forgiveness thread)

2007-12-06 11:32:16
104.   Sam DC
Just to repeat -- this is something that was reported as news, apparently with no sourcing, on a Houston sports radio station.

I leave to you where on the rumor food chain that lies.

2007-12-06 11:33:22
105.   Eric Enders
I'm one of the few, the misguided, who have never seen Logan's Run. But Jenny Agutter was great in Walkabout.
2007-12-06 11:36:27
106.   Jim Hitchcock
Walkabout! Very good movie!
2007-12-06 11:38:31
107.   D4P
I've never seen Logan's Run, and I have never heard of Jenny Agutter.
2007-12-06 11:39:39
108.   fanerman
107 Neither have I. (hides in shame)
2007-12-06 11:41:52
109.   Dark Horse
103-I find that tremendously reassuring. I just hope that Ned doesn't sell on Ethier, and that Young makes the squad. And that Hendrickson is non-tendered, though I can imagine if we don't sign Kuroda we'll make him an offer.

Fingers crossed, but this is a nice offseason so far.

2007-12-06 11:41:59
110.   Bob Timmermann
"Logan's Run" made awful looking 1970s style shopping malls look like the coolest place to live.

The movie is fun to watch.

2007-12-06 11:44:03
111.   dzzrtRatt
It would also give us a chance to test the whole "character" framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That's leadership, right?

Everyone talks about Juan Pierre as if he writes the lineup and you have to negotiate with him on his playing time. Starting players lose their jobs in baseball all the time. Why is Pierre different?

Is it because managers just hate to see the lil' fella cry?

2007-12-06 11:44:48
112.   Jon Weisman
105 - I wasn't sure it would hold up today, but I liked it as a kid.
2007-12-06 11:47:43
113.   Bob Timmermann
Doing the math and working back to the time when the film came out, I would think Jon, Sam, and I would like "Logan's Run" a lot.

Although I don't think we were appreciating the screenplay.

2007-12-06 11:48:12
114.   Eric Stephen
I can't wait for FSN's new series, "After the Bigs", with JP as their first subject.
2007-12-06 11:50:59
115.   regfairfield
111 Because we still owe him 36 million dollars.
2007-12-06 11:52:51
116.   wireroom
Hopefully Ned sees it as he already has a team that is contending in their division and if he goes with what he has now, he can make a move during the season to aquire a pitcher if he needs it. By then, other teams may be willing to part with a pitcher for less of a price, if the Dodgers need that.
I am not too big on the Jones signing merely because I would rather see Kemp, Etheir and Young in the outfield next year.
2007-12-06 11:53:15
117.   bigcpa
Pierre/LaRoche/Kershaw for Santana with extension? For discussion purposes only.
2007-12-06 11:53:19
118.   Penarol1916
107. Yet another two things D4P you add this to our admiration for neo-institutionalist sociologists and I have wonder if maybe I'm supposed to enjoy unknown acronyms.
2007-12-06 11:54:11
119.   Jon Weisman
111 -

This is the toughest job a manager has ...
(deep breath)
But the organization has decided to make a change ...

2007-12-06 11:54:39
120.   Marty
Watch it for Peter Ustinov if nothing else.
2007-12-06 11:55:22
121.   Kevin Lewis

Except Pierre was signed to do exactly what he did last year. I would be annoyed if I was him to be relegated to the 4th OF spot. Of course, it would be nice to have the contract, but if you don't love or at least enjoy what you do for a living, it is tough to be happy.

2007-12-06 11:55:28
122.   Jon Weisman
I came to Logan's Run more interested in seeing Farrah on the big screen than anything else. But the whole experience was super.
2007-12-06 11:55:30
123.   regfairfield
117 Twins can't afford a dead contract like Pierre's.
2007-12-06 11:57:23
124.   StolenMonkey86
94 - My fiance is taking an editing class from a guy who runs a small publishing company. Periodically he'll hand out letters from rejected authors, and often they have terrible grammar. I find it hillarious, personally.
2007-12-06 11:58:08
125.   Jim Hitchcock
107 D4P, you've never seen `An American Werewolf in London'?
2007-12-06 11:59:11
126.   Peanuts in My Shoes
121. Any chance JP gets upset enough about his relegation to 4th OF to make a stink and demand to be traded?
2007-12-06 12:00:25
127.   D4P
No, but I've heard the Warren Zevon song along those lines.
2007-12-06 12:00:28
128.   regfairfield
If Gary Matthews gets to keep his job, Pierre certainly deserves his.
2007-12-06 12:02:37
129.   Jim Hitchcock
127 Go. To. Blockbuster. Rat now!
2007-12-06 12:03:58
130.   Jon Weisman
Keith Law also likes the signing if it displaces Pierre.
2007-12-06 12:04:16
131.   DougS
105 A lot of '70's sci-fi will just not age well because of advances in special effects since then. But Logan's Run was definitely a good 'un. And it's hard to beat Jenny Agutter in her prime.
2007-12-06 12:04:35
132.   dzzrtRatt
121 Right. He'll be unhappy. This happens in America! Everybody in this discussion has been told by someone that they aren't going to get something they believed they were entitled to. And yet, we're all still functioning. Juan Pierre's happiness does not reflect in the standings.

Let's bring in Alec Baldwin:

"Your name is "you're wanting", and you can't play the man's game, you can't close them, and then tell your wife your troubles. 'Cause only one thing counts in this world: get them to sign on the line which is dotted."

2007-12-06 12:09:11
133.   Jon Weisman
June 2008 draft preview: Bryan Smith's top 10.

2007-12-06 12:09:29
134.   wireroom
130 I don't take much credence in anything Keith Law says. To me, he is another Steve Phillips, a guy who couldn't make it in the real job so he is an analyst.
2007-12-06 12:10:44
135.   bigcpa
134 What has Law said that you quibble with? He strikes me as the smartest guy they've got over there.
2007-12-06 12:11:29
136.   natepurcell

Gerrit Cole going 6 to the Marlins would make me sad...I like him a lot.

2007-12-06 12:13:09
137.   MJW101
55 ToyCannon
What 67 said.

Again, trading one of the youngsters does not free up enough $$$$ to sign a high value SP.

Nomar has a no trade contract and Kent might retire if traded. That leaves JP and Loaiza as the most dispensable high salaried Dodgers.

A trade to the Rangers or Whitesox would not be out of the question. In return take on one poor contract like Crede or Blalock that could be moved later to someone needing a warm body at 3B (Philadelphia?). This not intended in any way to be an excuse for trading LaRoche, whom I really like.

2007-12-06 12:18:19
138.   wireroom
135 he makes general statements to the effect of how certain players are only talented enough to pitch or play in the National League. To me, that goes along with the whole PVL argument and good character argument. utter nonsense.
2007-12-06 12:20:20
139.   sweepstakes
91-- There are some things up with which I will not put.
2007-12-06 12:21:07
140.   Jon Weisman
137 - There isn't a person here that knows what the Dodger budget ceiling is.
2007-12-06 12:21:14
141.   underdog
I actually rented Logan's Run not that long and it certainly, as I'd feared, does not hold up all that well in certain respects. (Not surprisingly, the effects and sets are cheesy. I do know someone who is familiar with the mall they shot it in and can't watch it and take it seriously.) But it's still a great story, has some very scary parts, has some good people in the cast (like Agutter) and is still fun, yeah, worth a watch, with a perspective check. My fantasy a few years ago was to write the remake, thinking no one else cared or had the same idea. Well, of course the remake's been in the works for years, though it keeps stopping and starting and stopping... And if 40's the new 30, would the remake be about people who die when they turn 40?

Anyway, at least Andruw doesn't live in the world of Logan's Run.

2007-12-06 12:21:26
142.   Jon Weisman
140 - I mean, unless someone in the front office is commenting here.
2007-12-06 12:21:47
143.   underdog
So White Sox and Rangers, what will you give us for Pierre if we pay a good portion of his salary?
2007-12-06 12:22:35
144.   bhsportsguy
I usually never propose deals but how about this one again.

Pierre + 9 million dollars to White Sox for Jose Contreras.

The White Sox end up paying Pierre 28.5M for 4 years vs. 20M to Contreras for 2. The Dodgers are paying a lot for Contreras but he is probably tradeable down the road if he can pitch well in the NL.

2007-12-06 12:23:26
145.   bhsportsguy
143 I thought of 144 before seeing your post.
2007-12-06 12:23:34
146.   D4P
Can't we just trade Pierre for Henri Stanley?
2007-12-06 12:25:32
147.   bhsportsguy
144 Pierre fits better in the AL with the DH, you can bat him 1st, 8th or 9th without damaging your lineup, he does stay healthy and he already spent some time in Chicago so he knows the area.
2007-12-06 12:26:26
148.   Eric Stephen
To complete the Dave Roberts cycle?
2007-12-06 12:28:52
149.   Bob Timmermann
Is the Dave Roberts cycle similar to the Krebs cycle?
2007-12-06 12:30:15
150.   D4P
Or as Penarol and I like to call it, the DRC.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-12-06 12:35:25
151.   MC Safety
144 Wasnt that on the table a few weeks back? Thats seems like too much of a dump though, and wasnt Contreras pretty scary last year?
2007-12-06 12:38:23
152.   ToyCannon
That would be the general idea about how to flip JP. We flip our bad contract for yours but each team fills a void. Jose doesn't really fill a void but he could be insurance for Schmidt and we would have 2/5 of the 2004 White Sox rotation. I think I'll peruse the league and find out what others teams match up with bad contracts. The league is full of them.
2007-12-06 12:39:32
153.   natepurcell
Colletti quote...

"I don't want to use what I may have to use for pitching to take care of [third base]," Colletti said.

2007-12-06 12:40:36
154.   bhsportsguy
152 I agree, that is what it would take, I think you have either take on a bad contract or pay a lot of his salary.
2007-12-06 12:40:54
155.   bhsportsguy
152 I agree, that is what it would take, I think you have either take on a bad contract or pay a lot of his salary.
2007-12-06 12:41:35
156.   bhsportsguy
152 Browser froze.
2007-12-06 12:43:55
157.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2007-12-06 12:44:08
158.   Penarol1916
150. Maybe in a different thread, but here it is jus two posts away. That makes it far too easy for anyone to FOWIM.
2007-12-06 12:44:54
159.   driches
i'm sure this has been done to death, but does anyone know/remember what the talk around Pierre was when we signed him? It seems to me that other teams must have been in the running and offering similar contracts--how else do you get to 5 years? Were any other teams involved?

My question is, SOMETHING must have justified the contract, other than fear-based spending by Ned (I can't imagine he was getting "3 years/$28 mil" offers and out of nowhere, we offer 5). At the time, did the rest of the majors feel Pierre had SOME value at least kind of justifying the contract? I can't fathom how a guy could go from meriting 5 years/$40mil to having to beg people to take him, when, after one year, he essentially did what he's done every year...

2007-12-06 12:44:55
160.   dzzrtRatt
156 Wasn't that the name of the villain in "The Usual Suspects?"
2007-12-06 12:45:52
161.   D4P

I can't figure out what it means...

2007-12-06 12:50:13
162.   Fallout
By the start of the season I expect that either Garciaparra and/or Pierre will be traded. (I know that at this point that sounds far removed...)
2007-12-06 13:00:07
163.   trainwreck
I hope you are all ready for Freakanomics the movie!
2007-12-06 13:12:12
164.   Benaiah
Andruw had an OPS over 900 in March, April and July last year and an OPS under 700 in May, June and Sept. Feast or famine for sure. If he is healthy, and the fan in me says he will be, then the Dodgers could be above average offensively at every position (assuming Laroche plays and Pierre doesn't). Ethier is only average compared to his position, but still above average compared to all positions. Further, every position besides SS would probably OPS over .800. Even without a huge breakout from one of Loney, Kemp or Laroche that should be enough to be in the top 5 of the NL in hitting.

In short, great move Ned and I hope that it is a sign of positive things to come.

2007-12-06 14:41:52
165.   sweepstakes
164 Do you mean Nomar? Why would it be Pierre vs. Laroche?
2007-12-06 15:11:39
166.   Benaiah
165 - Pierre not playing would mean Ethier playing and Laroche playing would mean Nomar doesn't play. In other words if Laroche plays and Pierre doesn't then the Dodgers will be (in my inexpert opinion) the favorites to win the NL in 2008.

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