Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
For those who are coming to the site for the first time by way of Steve Henson and the Times, this is the just joshin' post Henson refers to (where it should be noted that I also celebrate Jim Tracy's batting prowess with the bases empty), but here is the meat of the most recent argument for playing Hee Seop Choi ahead of Jason Phillips at first base.
Well, whether or not you believe in clutch hitting, certainly up to now Phillips has delivered with runners on second and/or third.Meanwhile, here is a more comprehensive entry that touches upon who starts for the Dodgers in general.But wait a minute. What if you expand beyond runners in scoring position, and just include any situation with runners on base?
Choi: .336 OBP, .394 slugging
Phillips: .310 OBP, .416 sluggingIt's just about a wash with runners on. And in the more frequent situation of no runners on base - when you need a baserunner to kick things off?
Choi: .325 OBP, .507 slugging
Phillips: .270 OBP, .344 sluggingAnd of course, don't forget their stats against right-handed pitchers:
Choi: .365 OBP, .462 slugging
Phillips: .284 OBP, .362 slugging
But of those six players (with the highest OPS on the current 25-man roster), Tracy has taken to playing only three of them: Kent, Bradley, and Ledee when able. Choi, Perez and Saenz often all sit. The Dodgers have to do better.
Am I ignoring defense? Not that much. Only at third base is there any kind of defensive dropoff between the lineup listed here and the lineup Jim Tracy is making.
This earlier post highlights my understanding of the choice to play Olmedo Saenz ahead of Choi. Not that I agree with it on a full-time basis, but I understand the case.
But as much as I may disagree with Tracy about how much Choi should play, it's not like it's insane or evil to give Saenz at-bats. And it doesn't point to a failing on DePodesta's part that he doesn't order Tracy to do differently.
In any case, good on Henson for putting the case for Choi out there. Certainly, some will continue to dismiss it, but it's nice to see the arguments entertained.
And if you're new to the site - welcome, and don't be shy about saying hello.
Sorry... been reading a lot of souther literature lately.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2125734
Rob Neyer also takes time to point out how rediculous Izzy leading off is.
(Insider required)
Come for the Choi
Stay for the Tracy bashing
Sky is blue
Politicians lie
Jason Phillips shouldn't be playing first base.
Bold conclusion there by Steve Henson. Wake me when he gets around to figuring out how useless Izturis is.
vr, Xei
And it's a good thing the newbies showed up just after the Trade Deadline Civil War.
So that's what's goin' on. It's all about the savvy . . .
That's what the Choi situation is for judging Tracy. It's a spotlight. Seeing how badly Tracy mishandles Choi is enlightening. It explains why the Dodgers have been so frustrating the past few years, close to being good but always falling short, and never seeming to catch a break, especially in the late innings when Tracy's weaknesses are also highlighted. The Dodgers are Jim Tracy's team, and Jim Tracy is not a winner.
Building on what you said- most people here will agree that a manager can only have a minor effect on the win column. Especially since most managers play their best players, pull starters at 100 pitches and make a double switch now and then. The best mgrs may eke out 2-3 extra wins, the worst might cost you a few. So you have to be very patient and observant to catch a instance of a game the mgr frittered away. The 2003 Quantrill/Finley game was one. Maybe Weaver left in to give up the salami to LaRoche in May which we won anyway. Or maybe the "Drew bunt" game, or any close game involving Giovanni Carrara. Personally I didn't catch too many of these in 2002-2004. But this year I'm honestly losing count. Whether this 75 win team could have been an 81 win team may not sound important. But next year it could be a 91 win team that could have won 97. He must be stopped.
...and now for some comic relief:
http://tinyurl.com/e2m93
Maybe just maybe that is why the Dodger have been trying to play Phillips so much?
I'm going with 50/50.... it depends on the angle at which Tracy reads the Henson column....
20 is right, this may not help Choi at all, but maybe it will help DePo justify easing Tracy out. It's nothing personal with Tracy. He just doesn't have the savvy to manage a difficult team.
As Depp's character in 'Pirates of the Carribean' would say: "Sabee?"
This is true as far as STRATEGY goes. The manager can have a very large effect when he decides to bench some of his best players in favor of replacement level players.
Now tracy thinks that Choi isn't baseball savvy. Huh, that's a new one.
While the attention is great, and new and different opinions are welcome. Let's just hope people who come here to challenge our views on Choi, and Tracy etc. come with some evidence to back things up. ;)
Woo hoo!
I have issues with Tracy's handling of Choi, but making this into a question of moral character is as dubious in my view as saying that Choi shouldn't play everyday because he's "soft." One of the powers of sabermetrics is its focus on actual, measurable results, as opposed to vague nonsense like whether or not someone's "baseball savvy."
WWSH
http://www2.dailynews.com/sports/ci_2922130
Ghame Over can do no wrong.
http://tinyurl.com/ct2x7
If Tracy can make these kind of lame excuses for troubled players when there are good players behind them (Schmoll), why should we be surprised that he would prefer a statistically inferior player (Phillips) over a better player (Choi)?
I think it's Tracy's quixoticness that makes him so luvable :)
BTW: The above is dripping with sarcasm. I ABSOLUTELY hate Jim Tracy >:~<
You know what? On second thought, Tracy doesn't leave much to nuance.
besides, Choi traditionally does not hit well against pitchers taller than 6'2"
Bringing the problem front and center (or closer to there anyway) forces Tracy to make a choice. If Choi starts more, then we're all better for it. If Choi continues to ride the bench, people "should" notice the problem more and that should make it easier to actually let go of Tracy. If Tracy stays and Choi still doesn't play, well, we don't know what would have happened without the article, but there's been no indication that anything would have changed about Choi's playing time anyway.
Did Tracy give a reason for Choi's playing? Rest Saenz? Maybe he heard of the article beforehand and already reacted...
What's Grabowski hitting at Vegas again?
Life in the NL West.
40 - and they are in the race...
I find the whole Choi discussion fascinating, but what really bothers me about Tracy are his in-game tactical decisions. His strategic positions (e.g. not playing Choi, constantly shuffling the line up) are bad enough, but add his apparent blindness to pitcher ineffectiveness is, well, just completely incompetent.
if comments by a bunch of bloggers or even by a writer on the beat is going to influence Tracy's methods, then he is in the wrong business
I must apologize for all of my recent JT bashing. It's easy to slam the guy via the blogosphere, but I am convinced he needs to go.
50 - wasn't he the bench coach giving Tracy advice...
Again, that's not what I meant. DePo has repeatedly shown he's not influenced by writer's opinions. Regardless of that, it's probably a better idea to have popular support on your side. To this point, Tracy has generally had the media (and most of the public) on his side while DePo has had neither. Since I disagree with many of Tracy's decisions, I don't think it's a bad idea for people to start coming away from him. And if Henson can convince people to do that, I would think that that has to be a good thing.
I don't think many fans are enthralled with Tracy. I go to most of the games, and the comments and mood toward Tracy is, to say the least, not positive. That hasn't affected him, he still has no idea when to pull a pitcher...
If the media and fan mood affected DePo in the least, he'd probably go and shoot himself. After hearing ESPN refer to him as Stupidesta, you would have to hope that he doesn't give any weight to us.
we dispense opinions freely here, many backing them up with multitudes of "facts" and "statistics" proving ourselves right...
we feel good about ourselves when we do this, and that provides some solice when frustrations over the poor product on the field gets to us...that's great, and that, at least to me, is what this site is all about...
but to think we have influence with Tracy and DePo is overselling ourselves and our opinions just a bit...IMHO
and again, who's to say whether our advice is good or not, but rather than dismiss us for being nobodies, shouldn't one rather evaluate our conclusions based on the "'facts' and 'statistics'" that support them?
But on the other hand, healthy organizations in specific industries get advice from outsiders all the time, and pay a lot for it. Consultants aren't always long-time veterans of the industry in question. Sometimes, an outsider's perspective is what's sought.
To whatever extent DT is representative of serious Dodger fans, this is like a focus group. Surely the Dodgers do focus groups with respect to marketing. Why not focus group the baseball side, too?
In short: a) The Dodgers' management, including Tracy and DePodesta should be required to read Dodger Thoughts; b) We should all be getting paid.
but let's say our esteemed dodger manager saw steve henson's article in the paper this morning, questioning his use of phillips over choi. were he a stubborn man, he would hard-headedly entrench himself in his anti-choi position and refuse to play him, just because. after all, how dare he permit some silly beat writer to influence HIS lineup??
however, if he was a wise and enlightened fellow, he would at least CONSIDER the argument presented before him, weigh its merits, and do a little self-analysis. "why am i benching choi? is his production that bad? is phillips a better alternative?" it's possible that he could come up with the same conclusion he's had, and not change his mind(in which case i would argue that he's not very smart, but that's another issue). but to say that outside opinions shouldn't influence him no matter what just doesn't make sense to me. decision-makers should be open-minded.
But I meant 12.
What was the post and what did Tracy say?
Was that intentional? Was he trying to give props to DT, but at the same time undermine the credibility of this site (and blogs in general)?
JT will probably not change his mind after reading the article. However, with more of the spotlight being pointed towards the subject, maybe the arguement that Choi should be starting will become the mainstream one. I don't think it is now, but I can see the momentum shifting towards that opinion.
Who knows, maybe by the time that JT gets fired people will point to not starting Choi as his downfall. Now wouldn't that be something.
I saw it more of a way for steve henson oletting his opinion be known without being to opinionated. Seing as how he doesn't get to write his regular column yet. Which really is a shame.
oletting = letting :0
It's great to get a mention, but I thought it was kind of back handed. Jon vouches for him though, so that's good enough for me.
Come for the Choi
Stay for the Suns
There's only one late West Coast game tonight and that is Minnesota at Seattle. Seattle seems to have a monopoly on Monday nights. Seattle is so boring to watch too.
I went to a CFL game last Monday. I've put in my time for weird football.
But I did find out that R. Jay Soward is still employed.
We're assuming that Choi hasn't been playing despite his relatively high OPS.
Maybe his OPS is as high as it is because Tracy keeps him on the bench against left-handers, good pitchers, and pitchers with "arm angle" issues.
Maybe he's only been successful against triple-A level pitchers like the guy the Pirates started yesterday.
Anyone have any evidence, statistical or anecdotal, to refute this theory?
Ask Brad Radke about Hee Seop Choi. Tell Radke he's a AAA pitcher.
The only evidence is that he was pretty successful for the Marlins last year for 4 months before being traded to us and that he's young so there's not much evidence either way (if he's successful because of limited playing time or if he's successful in spite of it) so we feel he should at least get the benefit of the doubt.
What many of us want is just to give him a chance (because he's young and he's showed the potential) so we know exactly what we have. We can't judge him on his inconsistent playing time so we really don't know how good/bad or consistent/inconsistent he is. If we were grading him, he'd get an incomplete. Sort of the same way DePo would get one because of the freak injuries that have happened this season and that sort of thing.
Russ Ortiz
David Weathers
Paul Wilson
Jason Jennings
Runelvys Hernandez
Joe Mays
Terry Mulholland
Brad Radke (x3)
Carlos Silva
Brett Tomko
Kevin Jarvis
Hector Carrasco
But ultimately, it's a chicken and egg thing. Choi doesn't often face the great pitchers, so he has little chance to build up success against them.
Javier Vazquez - 0 for 9, 3 Ks
Paul Byrd - 0 for 6
Jason Schmidt - 0 for 5, 4 Ks
In Houston, Choi went a combined 3 for 6 against Oswalt and Clemens.
Wonder if Tracy was considered a "savvy" ballplayer in his days.
Since, Phillips is catcher, he might be considered "savvy" according to Tracy.
We now replace scrappy with savvy (Repko, Robles,Izturis,Phillips) players.
Choi: Catch-22? What's that?
Tracy: In order to be in my lineup, you need to prove you're an everyday player. In order to prove you're an everyday player, you need to be in the lineup.
Choi: Wow, that's some catch, that Catch-22
Tracy: It's the best there is.
http://www.answers.com/topic/al-campanis
I don't know what savvy means in baseball, where movement is more restricted. You have to run to 1st base. You have to tag the runner out. Blah blah. You know where you're supposed to be and where you're supposed to go. Or maybe Choi is unsavvy because he got in the way in that play near 1st base. But didn't Phillips do that, too?
Not sure if this adds to the discussion. But "scrappy" seems to be more a physical attribute (hustle, bunting, etc.). "savvy" seems to be more the mental equivalent of "scrappy."
Laroche isn't in the line up once again
That's scrappy? That would make me scrappy. This word. I do not think it means what they think it means.
If "Tracy won't speak at length on the record", then how is it that we know that "he believes the 26-year-old South Korean is a defensive liability who lacks baseball savvy and doesn't hit well with runners in scoring position"?
Has Tracy actually said these things "off the record"?
Scrappy meaning something like "to use 'energy' to exceed normal player output."
Savvy meaning something like "to use 'smarts' and 'instinct' to exceed normal player output."
Savvy. Adj. See "Intangible"
Buck Showalter is a savvy manager. Tony LaRussa. Bobby Cox. Jim Leyland. Felipe Alou, maybe. Jim Tracy has never been, and will never be, savvy. Nor will he ever be "crafty," another quality attributed to good managers. Nor will he "a motivator," like the great Lasorda. Nor will anyone call him "a player's manager" like Dusty Baker.
Jim Tracy is just sort of there. He has no outstanding features at all. He mostly manages defensively, with the alibi firmly in mind before he proceeds. He manages like an insurance actuary.
No Fortune 500 company will ever invite Jim Tracy to a weekend at Hilton Head to tell its executives the secrets of great management.
Older "moneyball players" like Saenz, Drew, and maybe Kent or whoever are vets and therefore have a "professionalism" younger guys like Choi may lack. Other guys like Bradley have speed and look good on defense so they don't fit the stereotype as well.
Choi seems like the closest Dodger there is to the ESPN stereotype moneyball player.
greg miller, healthy and dominating like he was in 2003 would be a great present.
wow go edwin go!
How does he look on the mound, mechanics-wise?
he looks like the jackson of 2003. fluid, easy motion. he looks great basically.
No. It's impressive. I wish I could do that. I couldn't recognize LaRoche, Guzman, Martin, Billingsley, etc. in a crowd.
beltran perez and kuo have been closing.
Jackson was his own enemy in the 6th, an infield single off his glove, then 6-2 DP, then Loney made a great stop, flipped to Jackson, who dropped the ball for an error. Pop up to Loney to end the inning though
5 pitch inning for Jackson
his line is
7IP 3H 0ER 1bb 6k
184 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB, 6 Ks
no way, miller= highest cieling in our system of pitchers. we wouldnt waste that on a loogy.
Unlike Jason or Zach, Edwin is not a very common baseball name, so let's just call him Edwin.
And if we brought in a Mike Sweeney right now for Edwin Jackson - well, I'm not sure what kind of reaction that would get.
Nate - maybe you could put that reaction into words for us?
those words would not bode well with jon's no cussing policy.
in 2003, he was a twig!
tiffany
miller
hochevar
pimental
megrew
they plan on him going in 50 pitch spurts for the rest of the year.
he talked about edwin saying the same thing about finding that consistent release point and if he can do that, he will come back strong.
probably around 2.5-3.5 mil
How about Hanrahan?
hanrahan might be traded or lost in the rule 5. but if he is still with the org, he would probably have to move up to vegas as well.
with hochevar, he might start at AA. he is incredibly polished. But i would think if he starts off at very, it would only be one month at vero then move up to AA.
megrew, should be ready to throw from the mound by november/december ish.
right now, he is throwing, just doing long toss and stuff. no mound work yet.
That is good to hear about Megrew.
WWSH
sort of. his old delivery was pinching a never in his shoulder blade. He had surgery to shave down the blade to not disturb the nerve and the change in delivery was a future caution to not distrupt the nerve.
Thanks Nate--that does sound like what I remember. It was a pleasant surprise to see that he's back in AA--I thought they would be more cautious with him and keep him down in A ball. I'm a little worried about any change to his delivery, but he's so young that he has plenty of time to iron out the kinks. And it sounds like he's still throwing mid-90s.
WWSH
"Something that aggravates General Manager Paul DePodesta is the subpar Dodger on-base percentage, perhaps the statistic he values most."
Hmmm, .294 OBP in over 300 AB's...a storm's a brewin'?
vr, Xei
http://www2.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_2923442
That doesn't even count the four players on the disabled list J.D. Drew, Jose Valentin, Paul Bako and Kelly Wunsch whom DePodesta signed as free agents from other clubs.
Jose Valentin is currently on the DL?
That jumps to six if you count Adrian Beltre and Steve Finley, who have been disappointments for Seattle and the Angels, respectively.
...is followed by...
Finley was allowed to walk after the season.
...and...
The Dodgers this season have been about what they would have been last year without Beltre in the middle of the order.
So DePo should've manufactured a Beltre V 2004? I can see that...
Hee-Seop Choi, whom DePodesta acquired from Florida to be the Dodgers' power-hitting first baseman of the future, is maddeningly inconsistent and has been largely relegated to a pinch-hitting role.
A little brainstorming might lead to the possibility that his inconsistency stems from his role... hmmm!
Derek Lowe, despite a 3.95 ERA, has shown a tendency to crumble in difficult situations, a big reason why he is 8-11.
Ahh but earlier he said...
...Penny has a sub-.500 record, due mostly to a lack of run support.
Well according to ESPN, Lowe actually does have more run support... by 0.01 run per game. Penny 5.08, Lowe 5.09
The biggest bust of all, though, has been Drew, who has missed the past month with a broken left wrist.
Wonder if the Daily News would call Jackson a bust if he got hit on the wrist by a ball and couldn't write his columns?
Even before that, he was far too passive at the plate for a No. 3 hitter.
He had/has the highest OPS on the team.
It is worth noting Boras never could have wrangled such a generous contract for Drew anywhere else, and he couldn't have gotten it from the Dodgers had Beltre, also a Boras client, re-signed with the club.
Is that anything more than speculation?
Anyone else enjoy the article as much as I did? Thanks for posting it.
I won't bring up what Kingsley Amis wrote of the usage of aggravate you're condoning (because I can't find the book) but he would have questioned your manhood.
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