Tonight's Game

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Dodgers.com hosts an online chat with Cesar Izturis at 2:30 p.m. Tuesday.

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This post is dedicated to John Fiedler, one of those character actors who could play the common man (or pig) and yet be so unique. His first major film role was as Juror #2 in Twelve Angry Men, which of course you need to see to call yourself a citizen. Perhaps his most memorable role, outside of Piglet, was on The Bob Newhart Show as Mr. Peterson. Anyways, I liked him.

Is there any point in me saying the Dodgers aren't this bad?

Of course, they are this bad. They are what their record is, which is 35-40, a 76-win pace for the season. Their roster looks like this. Humpty Dumpty had an easier put-back.

Strangely, during their 9-14 June, the Dodgers have outhomered the opposition, 27-21. They have outwalked them, and have only three fewer hits. In OPS, they trail their opponents by only .715 to .705.

Nevertheless, the Dodgers have been outscored, 102-80. Almost exactly one run per game. And one run is all it takes for the knife to cut an arm here and a leg there.

A month ago, when allowing home runs was epidemic for Dodger pitchers, I wrote that the team needed to acquire better starting pitching, because the only other solution was to stop allowing home runs. And that seemed too wildly hopeful.

And yet the person who didn't believe this could happen is the same person who has been telling you (in the name of the flawed but talented Hee Seop Choi) that baseball is a game of adjustments. The Dodger pitching staff is not a Hall of Fame staff, but it was a more talented group than it had shown in May. I should have had more faith that the pitchers would find some sort of equilibrium - nothing fancy, to be sure, but something approximating the 4.08 ERA they have shown in June.

It's helped, of course, that Jim Tracy has had the restraint to keep Scott Erickson off the mound for all but 2 2/3 innings. But in general, pitchers have pitched closer to their capabilities, and that has made a difference. A forseeable difference that I did not forsee.

Now, it's the offense that isn't getting the job done. They are getting on base as much as their opponents and they are slugging as much as their opponents, but they're not generating the runs. I'd like to offer that it's forseeable - even likely - that this will change for the better. Which is not to deny that Antonio Perez's average might not fall below .300, and so on, but to accept that 1) players like Cesar Izturis (batting .114 in June) will find their modest levels again and 2) a failure to hit with runners in scoring position is not a permanent condition.

This does not presume, by the way, that Milton Bradley will be playing anytime soon. But if he does come back, that would only help.

In any case, the Dodgers have dug themselves a healthy hole. They are walking around in the cruel shoes. The offensive rebound might come too late to help. Or, it might coincide with another pitching slump, rendering the season completely out of sync. As I wrote last week, the Dodgers' margin for error is gone. For the playoffs to come in 2005, things have to start going right, right now.

So is there any point in me saying the Dodgers aren't this bad? Saying the Dodgers aren't this bad is not the same as saying that they will recover. Two very different things. And only the second one is relevant.

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The theory, which most people have come to know by now, is that the general manager spends the first two months of the season evaluating the team, the second two months trying to improve it, and the final two months in a sprint for the title.

However, because the wild card keeps so many teams alive in the playoff hunt for so long, the reality is that even if you know exactly what your problems are on June 1 (and keep in mind, the Dodger problems have changed since then), there isn't much you can do about it. The reality is that you basically spend four months with the team you take out of Spring Training, and two months with the post-trade-deadline, fuel-injected crew.

The number of trades that have been made since Opening Day in the entire major leagues could probably be counted on one hand, and it figures to remain that way through at least the All-Star break. It's not any kind of defense of DePodesta's or Frank McCourt to say that it's not their fault right now. It just is what it is. No one's dealing. The Dodgers have payroll and prospects to use to salvage 2005 if they want to. But even if they do want to, they're bargain-hunters on Thanksgiving Day - the stores won't even be open until everyone's finished chowing down a long, stupifying meal.

This is the team right now. We don't agree on what the problems are, and we don't agree what the solutions are. But all we can do is spend our time watching them and enjoying what we can and ruing what we must.

I really am at peace with the whole thing. Sure, there are moments and decisions that truly make me furious. But the overall idea that 2005 is slipping away - I can deal. I believe this team has a bright future. I believe that the prospects will start to deliver in 2006 or 2007. I believe that DePodesta will continue to make more good moves than bad.

Three years ago, I took a job at a museum where I had no hope for advancement. Today, I'm still at the same job (a longer story than it sounds), but I have much else to celebrate. This website, for one thing. And that's how I feel about the Dodgers. The present has been a disappointment, a dip where progress might have been expected. But the future looks sunny. At the end of the

Update: On Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer writes about Bob Keisser's pro-Tracy, anti-DePodesta column in today's Press-Telegram. Lederer notes that there might be a case to make on both counts, but Keisser fails to do so on either:

For whatever reason, Keisser obviously has an axe to grind here. I think this type of "analysis" is proof that (many of) the oldtimers are uncomfortable with the changing of the guard within the executive suites of major-league baseball. To say it is disappointing in the case of Keisser, a member of the Society for American Baseball Research, is an understatement.

On occasion, Keisser has shown that he "gets it." But, more often than not, he reverts to criticizing DePodesta in a less than objective manner. He uses the cafeteria approach by picking and choosing his spots, pointing out the failures and ignoring successes.

It's hard not to agree with Lederer, especially when one sees that, for example, Keisser's article fails to mention the words "Jeff Kent" once. Didn't like it that Kent sat out most of Sunday's game? How would you feel if he were missing from the 2005 Dodger lineup for 162 games?

One of the many things I've noticed during the Dodgers' slide is the repeated observation that Tracy unfairly takes all the blame, while DePodesta hides from it in his office - during a period in which Tracy has gotten almost no actual blame for the slide in the press and DePodesta has taken all of it. Where, besides Fire Jim Tracy and the spillover onto the comment boards of this site, has Tracy taken any actual hits? And where hasn't DePodesta taken any? Where are the instances of DePodesta hiding, of ducking interviews?

It must simply be the vulnerability factor - that at the end of the season, Tracy would lose his job before DePodesta would. That's what makes it open season on DePodesta, while the mainstream press ignores or explains away Tracy's mistakes. It's not so much that Tracy is a hopeless manager. But he does get a free ride outside of the quarters I've mentioned above.

If Tracy is worth retaining as a manager - and I would sincerely (not sarcastically) like to see that proven, because who likes to see anyone truly be a failure - he should withstand the same scrutiny that DePodesta faces. Scratch that - they should both be held to fair scrutiny, not unfair.

1988 World Series Game 5 Dodger Starting Lineup
October 20, 1988
EQA/Player
.301 Rick Dempsey, C
.265 Franklin Stubbs, 1B
.271 Steve Sax, 2B
.215 Alfredo Griffin, SS
.240 Jeff Hamilton, 3B
.264 Mickey Hatcher, LF
.278 John Shelby, CF
.285 Mike Marshall, RF
.220 Mike Davis, DH
Orel Hershiser, P

Today's Possible Dodger Starting Lineup
June 26, 2005
EQA/Player
.241 Jason Phillips, C
.276 Hee Seop Choi, 1B
.308 Antonio Perez, 2B
.245 Cesar Izturis, SS
.278 Mike Edwards or .189 Oscar Robles, 3B
.222 Jason Grabowski, LF
.254 Jayson Werth, CF
-.094 Cody Ross or .231 Jason Repko, RF
.309 Olmedo Saenz, DH
Derek Lowe, P

EQA courtesy of Baseball Prospectus

Tonight's Game

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Eric Gagne's surprisingly good surgery news gets discussed by Will Carroll in a special newsletter extra from Baseball Prospectus today.

He'll pitch with the same old ligament (nee tendon), but less of the nerve pulling, a similar problem to that which ended Brad Penny's season in 2004, albeit in a different location.

Some might question why Gagne's ligament wasn't replaced or overlayed in the modern technique, especially with an accelerated rehab schedule. It's hard to question Frank Jobe when it comes to a pitcher's elbow, but there could be some second guessing if Gagne is as slow to return as Penny was during the spring of 2005. Gagne's quotes about a replaced UCL having a limited life span will still echo in the heads of many Dodgers fans.

For now, the prognosis is roughly the same as before, with a bit more certainty that Gagne will be back in spring training. The key now is to make use of the impending six months of rehab to get his mechanics to such a stage that the elbow isn't restressed and that the National League is.

I might add that if Gagne needs an extra few weeks in 2006, as Penny did this past spring, let's not be hasty. Let's give them to him. Perhaps, let's even encourage him to take them, if he can't be trusted not to take risks.

It's funny how players like J.D. Drew and Odalis Perez get such grief for taking time to heal properly, when we so often see the pitfalls of coming back too soon. Of course, sometimes a quick return is successful without any consequences - other times it's successful with consequences. (Curt Schilling, anyone?) But very often, dashing back onto the field is downright foolhardy.

I guess some always have the suspicion that players who take their time with their recoveries are spineless, cowardly and yella, but cowardice sometimes can be a wonderful thing.

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Lesson of the day: A winning clubhouse can be a quiet clubhouse.

From Albert Chen in this week's Sports Illustrated:

... the home locker room has the feel of a university library. A handful of St. Louis Cardinals shuffles across the carpet to their lockers, while a half-dozen others watch video of that night's opposing pitcher on a pair of TVs hanging from the ceiling. First baseman Albert Pujols sits upright in a chair, his eyes hungry for information, his fingers resting on the video controls so he can fast-forward and rewind at will. Ten minutes pass. No one utters a word.

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Meanwhile, SI.com has a wee excerpt from a 1964 article by Robert Creamer on Vin Scully ...

When Vin Scully came to Los Angeles with the transplanted Brooklyn Dodgers, he was a stranger in alien corn. But he soon became as much a part of Southern California as the freeways. ...Out-of-town visitors at ball games in Dodger Stadium have Scully pointed out to them -- as though he were the Empire State Building -- as he sits in his broadcasting booth describing a game, his left hand lightly touching his temple in a characteristic pose that his followers dote on and which, for them, has come to be his trademark.

Thought I'd pass along this article celebrating the upcoming 100th anniversary of Moonlight Graham's only major league appearance. (Thanks, Baseball Primer.)

Since I know where this inevitably leads - we've all had this conversation 100 times - I liked Field of Dreams (there is some real hard emotion amid all the treacle that the film's detractors cite), and the greatest baseball movie of all time is The Bad News Bears.

Tonight's Game

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Very often, Las Vegas gets the news about Dodger minor league callups before Los Angeles does. And so we learn from Nick Christensen of the Las Vegas Sun (in a feature about Dioner Navarro's rapid improvement) that outfielder Cody Ross is officially on his way to the Dodgers.

But there is still suspense ...

"Nobody was immediately sent down," Christensen said.

Could this hesitation mean ...?

Update: No. It's Derek Thompson's 3.50 ERA that goes down, and Scott Erickson's 6.75 ERA that stays.

In 24 days this month, Erickson has faced 15 batters and retired eight. He has been kept on the roster for nearly all of June to get eight outs.

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Tonight's starter, Jeff Weaver, since May 29: 33 innings, 11 earned runs.

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A move of Dodger Stadium to downtown and a transformation of the ballpark's current Chavez Ravine location into an urban green is imagined via photoshop in this David Friedman article in the L.A. Downtown News.

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Reports are spreading that today's operation found Eric Gagne's elbow injury not to be as severe as first thought, and that he would be ready to return by the start of 2006. We'll await further quotes from Dr. Jobe and/or the like.

Before I start talking about the Dodgers, I want to spend a moment in the Padres' sandals. They had a chance to bury the Dodgers, 8 1/2 games deep in the National League West. They let it get away. Will they take this as demoralizing? Or will this just be a blip for them?

I guess history will decide. Chemistry or no chemistry. Faint or strong of heart. It's always discovered in the autopsy, isn't it?

As for the guys in blue ...

Not to gross anyone out here, but there was an episode of Hill Street Blues in which public defender Joyce Davenport was representing a survivalist. He asked her, hypothetically, how she would stay alive in if her car ever broke down deep in the desert. Her reply was something along the lines of 1) sleep in the shade of her car's undercarriage during the day and walk only at night, to avoid sunburn and energy depletion, and 2) to provide herself with sustaining fluids, capture her own urine in a container.

The survivalist immediately asked Joyce to marry him.

I'm guessing you know where I'm going with this. Over the past 24 hours, the Dodgers have been surviving not on champagne, but another kind of bubbly altogether. And they'll travel through cover of darkness, toward home, much in need of a Velamint but otherwise enduring for at least one more day.

The thing is, they are drinking of themselves ... even though there's a fresh bottle of water or two right in front of them.

My Dad hated the Dodgers' trade with Florida last July. Didn't like it then, doesn't like it now. Thought Hee Seop Choi was worthless then, and doesn't have much higher of an opinion of him today.

Even he is stunned by what Jim Tracy is doing with Choi.

What are the arguments for playing Jason Phillips at first base today instead of Choi? Phillips' nifty defensive experience at the position? His history of mashing right-handed pitching?

No matter. Tracy will come up with some explanation. None of this will change his obvious hostility toward giving the team's most frequent home run hitter any serious playing time.

I'm putting this sentence in bold: Choi is a flawed player. We get it, okay?

But on the 2005 Dodgers, who isn't?

The manager who supposedly aims to puts Choi in a position to succeed has saved him to hit against Padres closer Trevor Hoffman and lefty reliever Chris Hammond, while sitting him against league-average righthanders like Woody Williams and Brian Lawrence.

In four games against the division leader, Choi had only seven at-bats. And yes, he went 0 for 7. But does that make him a worse bet than Jason Grabowski or Jason Repko? One week, Choi goes hitless. The next week, he hits seven homers in four days. Out here in the Mojave, Jim Tracy should not be turning his nose up at bottled Choi.

I swear, it makes me laugh now how transparent this all is.

Just in passing, we are also presented today with the latest fun-for-all bunt attempt. Down by three runs with six outs remaining, with a leadoff hitter who has grounded into 30 double plays in 2,230 career plate appearances, Cesar Izturis bunts.

In 2,230 career plate appearances to that point, Izturis had grounded into 30 double plays. And it's not like he's been a leadoff hitter all that time.

There's more to discuss, but I'm short of time.

Look, the Dodgers don't have a stellar crew out there these days. This seems mostly the fault of injuries, along with Paul DePodesta perhaps coming a player or so short in his offseason makeover of the team, since most of the moves to construct the current roster have turned out favorably.

DePodesta has his job to do - making sure that Derek Thompson, who provided three critical innings of shutout relief in his latest yeoman peformance - stays on the roster and Scott Erickson goes, for openers.

But Tracy has got to get out of the funk he is in. Because as resistant as I am to conspiracy theories, this one by Dodger Thoughts commenter GoBears is starting to seem bizarrely viable.

I imagine a sick game of chicken between Depo and Tracy. JT is daring Depo to fire him by deliberately minimizing the team's chances of winning. Depo is waiting for the media to turn on JT so that the firing is not seen as "unfair." Meanwhile, the team circles the bowl...

If Jim Tracy had made a habit in previous years of having leadoff hitters bunting while down by three in the eighth inning, and regularly benching one of his top power hitters, I think I would have remembered.

Update: Can I just say that despite the above complaints, winning feels so much better than losing.

Update 2: Steve Henson writes in the Times that Tracy disavowed Izturis' bunt ...

Izturis popped up trying to bunt for a hit — something Tracy told him wasn't smart with the team down three runs —and the runners advanced on Mike Edwards' groundout.

... and that Choi sat against Brian Lawrence today because of Lawrence's "repertoire of pitches he throws and his arm angles."

And ... Bill Shaikin has an entire feature exploring Tracy and Mike Scioscia's use of the bunt!

"The one thing that does get overlooked is to assume that, by putting the bunt on, it's going to be successful," DePodesta said. "That's not nearly the case. In those situations, you give up an out and don't advance the baserunner."

Under that standard, the Dodgers' execution has been poor this season. Click's analysis reveals a bunt play succeeds — runner moves up, batter out — about 60% of the time. The play fails — runner out, batter safe at first —about 25% of the time, with such outcomes as errors and double plays accounting for the other 15%.

The Angels have succeeded at a 75% rate last season and 72% this season, but the Dodgers have fallen from 77% to 57%. They rank sixth in the National League in attempts but 13th in successes.

But even DePodesta, who has not emphasized bunting ability in assembling his roster, does not discount the value of the sacrifice.

"If I play my home games in Coors Field, I'm probably not going to be doing a whole lot of bunting," he said. "If I play my home games in Petco Park or Dodger Stadium, it's probably going to be a more valuable tool."

Today's 12:35 p.m. Game

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ESPN.com has a nice little head-to-head player comparison feature that I never noticed before.

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What's wrong with Hee Seop Choi?

Righthander on the mound for San Diego. Right-handed batters Mike Edwards, Jayson Werth, Olmedo Saenz, Jason Phillips (at first base) and Jason Repko in the lineup. Choi on the bench.

Unless Choi is hurt, Jim Tracy has declared a police action against him.

Would you agree with this characterization of the acquisitions the Dodgers have made to help form their current 40-man roster (including the disabled list), along with prominent other minor leaguers?

Most of these are obvious, but a few are debatable. In any case, between Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta, the balance sheets seem solidly in their favor. Of course, the only things this list doesn't include are transactions that weren't made but should have.

Anyway, let me know your thoughts ...

Worth the Investment

Wilson Alvarez, signed as free agent

Milton Bradley, acquired for Franklin Gutierrez and Andrew Brown

Yhency Brazoban and Jeff Weaver (and Brandon Weeden), acquired for Kevin Brown and cash

Giovanni Carrara, signed as minor league free agent

Hee Seop Choi and Brad Penny (and Bill Murphy), acquired for Juan Encarnacion, Guillermo Mota and Paul Lo Duca

Elmer Dessens, acquired with cash for Jerome Milons

Mike Edwards, signed as free agent

Jason Grabowski, acquired for cash

D.J. Houlton, acquired for cash

Cesar Izturis, acquired with Paul Quantrill for Luke Prokopec and Chad Ricketts

Jeff Kent, signed as free agent

Ricky Ledee, signed as free agent

Antonio Perez, acquired for Jason Romano

Jason Phillips, acquired for Kazuhisa Ishii

Duaner Sanchez, claimed off waivers

Derek Thompson, acquired for cash

Kelly Wunsch, signed as free agent

Low Risk, Low Reward

Paul Bako, signed as free agent

Oscar Robles, signed as free agent

Maybe Not

Brian Myrow, acquired for Tanyon Sturtze

Odalis Perez (and Brian Jordan and Andrew Brown), acquired for Gary Sheffield

Jose Valentin, signed as free agent

Henri Stanley, acquired for Dave Roberts

Can't Tell Yet

J.D. Drew, signed as free agent

Ryan Ketchner and Aaron Looper, acquired for Jolbert Cabrera

Derek Lowe, signed as free agent

Dioner Navarro, Dan Muegge, Beltran Perez and William Juarez, acquired for Shawn Green and cash

Cody Ross, acquired for Steve Colyer and cash

Jayson Werth, acquired for Jason Frasor (really tempted to put this in the win column based on 2004)

Low Risk, Negative Consequences

Scott Erickson, signed as free agent (the paralysis here, keeping Erickson as a 12th pitcher, is the single most frustrating aspect of DePodesta's tenure)

Norihiro Nakamura, signed as free agent

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Recent Costly Departures

?

Recent Not-So-Costly Departures

Adrian Beltre

Alex Cora

Brian Falkenborg

Steve Finley

Jose Hernandez

Masao Kida

Jose Lima

Tom Martin

Hideo Nomo

Dave Ross

Tonight's Game

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According to ESPN.com, the three Southern California ballparks are side-by-side-by-side in limiting runs this season.

What's remarkable about this is that Dodger Stadium continues to be almost neutral on home runs, while Petco Park and Angel Stadium reduce them significantly. The latter parks make up much of the difference in being more generous with doubles.

Still, something tells me that somehow, a greater percentage of home runs at Dodger Stadium are solo shots than in Anaheim and San Diego.

Update: In the brief period that I published this post and checked the link, the numbers changed, with Dodger Stadium dropping to 27th place and Petco to dead last.

And then I hit refresh, and the numbers changed again.

My whole world is shaken ...

We got three years, and maybe that's all. We got eight-inning wins and one-inning parties. And while Gagne waited for the rest of the franchise to become anywhere near as capable, his elbow went, and so he's blown nearly as many ligaments in his life (two) as he has save opportunities (six).

The organization wore a hard, sad expression on Tuesday. Gagne was what made them all special, even when they were mediocre. He was what made them contenders, even as they fell to the middle of the division.

As they'd just taken to opening their eyes every morning hoping for good news — an at-bat out of Milton Bradley perhaps, a start out of Odalis Perez, a double out of Jayson Werth — the worst came in a telephone call from Jobe himself.

"It hurts," Jeff Kent said. "It hurts because of who he is."

In a sport in which the games pile up so fast perspective can hardly keep up, Gagne kept the bullpen grounded, which in turn settled the pitching staff, which kept the Dodgers competitive. Most years. San Francisco had Bonds. New York had Jeter. Chicago had Sosa.

Los Angeles had Gagne, and the strain of getting to him, and the thrill of handing him the baseball.

- Tim Brown in the Times

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And so the Dodgers beat on, boats against the current ... forced to compete in 2005 without Eric Gagne, Mike Piazza, Orel Hershiser, Pedro Guerrero, Fernando Valenzuela, Steve Garvey, Sandy Koufax, Duke Snider, Roy Campanella, Zack Wheat and everyone else.

The Dodgers have taken to losing like Jenny Craig. They have lost 35 of their past 56 games, matching the fifth-worst stretch in Los Angeles history:

1979: 17-39 (66-40 in other games, finished 83-79)
1992: 17-39 (46-60 in other games, finished 63-99)
1968: 18-38 (58-48 in other games, finished 76-86)
1987: 20-36 (53-53 in other games, finished 73-89)
1999: 20-36 (57-49 in other games, finished 77-85)
1967: 21-35 (52-54 in other games, finished 73-89)

The 1979 season presents the most interesting case, and the only faintly optimistic one in nearly half a century: a team that played .303 ball for approximately a third of the season played .623 ball for the other two-thirds. The '79ers started 19-18, stumbled by going 17-39, then went 47-22 over the second half of the year. This nearly best-case scenario recovery landed the Dodgers 83 total victories - a Renaldo Nehemiah-like sprint to third place.

In 1979, the Dodger offense was a mature, productive unit - like an Everybody Loves Raymond in season five. Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Ron Cey and Dusty Baker had some of their finest seasons. Bill Russell, Derrel Thomas and Steve Yeager didn't embarrass anyone. They all remained healthy. In part-time roles, Reggie Smith, Joe Ferguson and Gary Thomasson made us feel warm and fuzzy. (After a slow start, Smith was OPSing .825 with 10 homers in 68 games when he suffered a season-ending injury in July - and the Dodgers performed significantly better without him.)

On the mound, the Dodgers had three above-average starters in Jerry Reuss, Burt Hooton and Rookie of the Year Rick Sutcliffe and an average starter in Don Sutton. Where the team got slammed was in the rest of the pitching staff. They got absolutely nothing in the No. 5 slot from swingmen-by-necessity Doug Rau, Andy Messersmith and Charlie Hough, and little from the bullpen outside of the 1.11 ERA from future Valenzuela tutor Bobby Castillo.

Overall, 1979 was a bedrock team, using only 18 position players and 17 pitchers all year. (The 2005 Dodgers have used the exact same numbers, and it's only June 22.) The 1979 team, coming off consecutive National League pennants and managed by one of the game's most renowned motivators, had a great many pieces in place, but a lot of things went wrong before a lot of things went right.

Here in the middle of 2005, so much has gone wrong, the whole season feels like a torn elbow ligament.

The Dodger team ERA in June is 4.12; in May, it was 5.23. The Dodger team runs per game in June is 3.63; in May, it was 4.29. If the Dodgers had gotten their June pitching in May, they would have continued to be considered an elite team, and the current month of bad pitching and bad hitting easily summed up as an injury-induced rough spot.

But that's not the way it is. There's been poor execution (a word you need to be careful tossing around, given the prevailing mood), but there has been plenty of execution of the good kind. However, as far as luck and timing - there hasn't been much of the good kind at all.

The starting pitching has been born again, sort of - to no effect. It shows that underperforming players get better - and how that's not always enough. In July, Jayson Werth and Cesar Izturis might easily find the adqeuacy that Jeff Weaver and D.J. Houlton have displayed in June. The injuries, which seem to hit like wads of wet toilet paper on Halloween night, could be wiped away. But what will it all mean?

No matter what you think of the construction of the Dodger organization, some of the misfortune this season really is misfortune. But misfortune earns you no free rides. The Dodgers have to start doing things right if they want to win. Players have to find the answers to their slumps. The manager has to make smarter decisions. The general manager has to make the right moves. And the luck and timing have to decide for their own part that they want to correct themselves.

The season isn't over. But the margin for error is.

It's not about being optimistic or pessimistic. It's fairly clear what the odds are for the Dodgers. The game is just seeing how those odds will play out.

The fun part of the games is the winning. Right now, the fun part is only in our dreams.

* * *

Update: Some key Dodger Thoughts posts regarding Gagne:

April 23, 2003: Eric Gagne Is So Good
October 1, 2004: No Proof That Mota Trade Hurt Gagne
March 24, 2005: Mechanical Failure for Gagne?
May 23, 2005: Eric Gagne: Beyond the Saves

Tonight's Game

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So I had this idea for the off day next week - June 30. We would gather at 9 p.m. (after my kids are in bed) for a Dodger game chat, for a game entirely of my fictional creation. I would post the play-by-play in this space, and you would just keep hitting refresh to see what happened. Kind of like an all-text Gameday.

The game would start later than a real game but have few commericial interruptions, to say the least, allowing it to end approximately at the normal time.

Anyone interested in going along for this ride, or do you only want the real magilla? (Fair warning: Sadly, Bob Timmermann will be out of the country!)

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Here, the Score Bard smilefully addresses the managerial tumult in Zinzinnati.

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Update: On KFWB this hour, Jim Tracy said something extraordinary in explaining his decision to bench Hee Seop Choi against San Diego righthander Woody Williams.

"The history is not 0 for 3," Tracy said. "It's 0 for 11. That's a fairly significant number."

I find this explanation absolutely appalling.

You are going to bench the player who hits home runs more frequently than anyone else in your offense-deprived lineup, because he had the equivalent of three bad games against a pitcher over the life of his entire career, so that you can play Jason Repko? (In case you were wondering, Antonio Perez could play the outfield about as well as he can play third base.)

There isn't a rationalization Tracy won't plunder to keep Choi on the bench. Absolutely appalling.

* * *

The sad Eric Gagne news, we'll address later in a separate post.

Some sharp commentary on the Dodgers today from Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus:

See, it's not Gagne's injury that has been most devastating to the Dodgers. It's the loss of Milton Bradley that has crippled them. The switch-hitting center fielder was having a terrific season when a torn ligament in his right ring finger forced him to the DL in late May with him hitting .298/.345/.511. Up to that point, the Dodgers had scored 242 runs in 49 games, or 4.9 per. Since then - 72 runs in 20 games, down to 3.6 per. That's the difference between an offense that can win and one that can't.

The Dodgers simply haven't been able to replace Bradley's bat. Consider that last night against Jake Peavy, as nasty a right-hander as there is in baseball, Jim Tracy had Jason Repko batting second, Olmedo Saenz in the five spot, and Jayson Werth batting sixth. Repko is barely a major leaguer, and he sports a .308 OBP (albeit with a "backwards" OBP split in a small sample). Saenz and Werth are platoon players, capable of contributing by smashing left-handers, but out of their element when asked to play a significant role against righties. Tracy's few remaining left-handed options, Jason Grabowski and Oscar Robles, have been awful and have little hope of improving. Like Repko, each is a marginal major leaguer. ...

The Dodgers' rotation has been a disappointment as well, due to both injuries and unrealistic expectations. Or do you have another term for employing Scott Erickson? D.J. Houlton has now taken Erickson's spot and been a serviceable six-inning guy, which was his upside in March and remains so. The loss of Odalis Perez has hurt, although he wasn't pitching all that well at the time he went on the DL. The low-upside rotation was a good complement for an offense scoring five runs a game and a deep bullpen; when the offense and bullpen failed, the rotation began to look much worse. It's essentially a league-average group, maybe a bit better if Perez comes back healthy and effective.

While I give lots of credit to Paul DePodesta for assembling a bench using cheap, even free, talent, one of the reasons you do that is so that you can easily get rid of players who you're wrong about. After a season and a half, it's pretty clear that Jason Grabowski isn't going to hit the way he did in the A's system. Robles might have been a good player in the Mexican League, but he's barely able to get the ball out of the infield in the majors. Erickson should never have been employed, and is just a waste of roster space right now. Jayson Werth had a nice little run last year, but he needs a platoon partner. A month from now, we may be saying similar things about Antonio Perez and Mike Edwards, both of whom have gaudy stat lines driven by high batting averages, and who have temporarily solved the third-base problems.

There's more, but I've streched the limit of how much I should excerpt already. I think this is a plenty-good taste of a plenty-good synopsis of the Dodger dilemmas, without the usual noise. "Why they traded the heart of the clubhouse, Paul Lo Duca, last season is beyond me, but Jason Phillips isn't cutting it," wrote Maggie Haskins of SI.com wrote just a day ago.

Lo Duca's 2005 OPS, EQA and salary: .733, .270, $4.61 million
Phillips' 2005 OPS, EQA and salary: .693, .248, $339,000

Add in Brad Penny for Guillermo Mota, while subtracting Kazuhisa Ishii, and maybe it will become even more clear.

Comments like Haskins' make me all the more grateful for comments like Sheehan's.

Tonight's Game

There's no doubt there had to be a visceral difference between witnessing the two Dodger late-inning collapses this weekend, as opposed to reading about them later. I consider myself fortunate to be among the latter group, each day heading for dinner with the lead before checking on my cell phone to find out the stunning final sore.

The Dodgers, of course, were among the group who felt the pain first hand.

"I'm so flabbergasted at the game of baseball," Dodger catcher Jason Phillips told the Riverside Press-Enterprise. "Maybe I should have played cricket. I don't want my son to ever pick up a bat, that's how bad it is."

The season, at this moment, is a car wreck, one that may prevent the Dodgers from ever getting where they wanted to go in 2005.

But what are you going to do if you're a fan - stop rooting? What are you going to do if you're a player - stop trying?

"You have to keep your faith," said Jeff Kent in the Orange County Register. "You have to keep grinding. You have to know every day that the next day it can get better, and if you don't believe that, pack your ... bags and go home."

I can already hear people advocate the third way - start shedding ballast and plan for 2006. This may ultimately be the path, but once again it's worth remembering that a) there's plenty of time left before this decision needs to be made, and b) this is not the first time the Dodgers have been in trouble in June.

You don't endure 16-year streaks of postseason winlessness without some June gloom. The chances of the Dodgers recovering enough to become a great team do appear small - but existent. But small. But existent.

Dodger Playoff Teams in the Division Era
(Since 1969)
Year/Last Date Below .500
1974 None
1977 None
1978 None
1981 None
1983 None
1985 June 9 (27-28)
1988 April 4 (0-1)
1994 August 3 (53-54, in first place when strike came)
1995 July 22 (39-40)
1996 May 15 (20-21)
2004 April 5 (0-1)

I completely have the stomach and the long-term vision to sacrifice 2005 for a 2006 when the Dodgers can be not only a legitimate division contender, but a legitimate World Series contender. But today is not the day for the Dodgers, or their fans, to give up on their season. There is too much time and too much mediocrity everywhere.

Tonight brings another game, and perhaps the most interesting pitching matchup of the season. The Dodgers face the Padres, with the challenge of doing to San Diego ace Jake Peavy what as the Padres themselves did to Minnesota ace Johan Santana on Sunday - hang tough and win.

The Padres did so behind No. 5 or 6 starter Darrell May, while the Dodgers will send someone considerably better in Brad Penny. And in a sense, this is the very game that Penny was acquired for - to be an ace and beat the other team's ace. I'm under little illusion that Penny is an ace on the Peavy level, but he has enough good history to have his shot at being better this evening.

For all that has gone wrong, the Dodgers have a chance to reassert themselves. It doesn't matter if the National League West is baseball's worst division. Its winner gets a playoff ticket, and the Dodgers remain a contender. There isn't a pitching matchup in the series, frankly, that the Dodgers can't win.

Tonight: Penny (4.02) vs. Peavy (2.79)

Tuesday: Derek Lowe (3.69) vs. Woody Williams (4.47)

Wednesday: D.J. Houlton (5.77) vs. Tim Stauffer (4.10)

Thursday: Elmer Dessens (2.40) vs. Brian Lawrence (4.57)

Whatever happened to all this season's losers of the year?
Ev'ry time I got to thinking, where'd they disappear?

If it's your argument that the Dodgers would be better off losing and knowing they were done for, I probably can't persuade you otherwise. But me, I think surprises can cut both ways. I'm going to let the Dodgers try to turn this around, give them the days we all have to spare to see if "they just seem a little weird." Surrender will come of its own accord if it's going to come.

* * *

The organizational problems extend to Las Vegas, which recently lost 12 consecutive games. From Nick Christensen in the Las Vegas Sun:

With Jason Repko, Mike Edwards and Mike Rose - all players expected to spend a good deal of time in Las Vegas this season - all subbing for injured Dodgers in the big leagues, the 51s are making due with players who don't usually excel in bringing home runners.

Norihiro Nakamura has been slumping. Chin-Feng Chen and Willy Aybar have been injured, and Dioner Navarro, who has been on a recent surge, will go on the disabled list today with a knee injury. Aybar will come off a six-day stint on the DL today but hasn't had a hit since June 7. Chen is still recovering from being hit in the wrist by a pitch in May. ...

With Navarro on the disabled list and Mike Nixon, called up from Single-A on May 28, the only catcher on the 51s' roster, a move is likely on Tuesday to bring someone else in. Two possibilities from Double-A Jacksonville would include former 51s catcher Eric Langill, who is 13-for-37 (.351) with the Suns this year, and Russell Martin, one of the Dodgers' top catching prospects who is hitting 65-for-209 (.311) at Double-A.

Odalis Perez makes his second rehabilitation start for Las Vegas tonight. But the team to watch of late has really been Jacksonville, where seemingly every significant Dodger prospect has been converging. Latest great hope Andy La Roche has two homers and three errors in his first four games.

Tonight's Game

Joe and Rich Lederer

Scott and Marvin Kraft

My family has already made me feel tremendously appreciated today. They let me sleep in and brought me the paper to read in bed, and gave me wonderful cards, a mug with my kids' picture on it, and the first season of Scrubs on DVD, and hugs a-plenty. (Did I mention they let me sleep in???)

My best to all of those who will celebrate Father's Day with their families today, and my best to all of those who, for reasons consolable or not, will not.

Tonight's Game

Remember when El Slumpola was all Elmer Dessens' fault. Now he comes back, the wolf in sheepish clothing, trying to make it all right.

Another story from the past with increasing relevance to the 2005 National League West: "The Stooge Division."

The talk is that it might take only 85 victories to win the National League Western Division in 2004 (and that it might take even less to win the American League Central). Certainly, there are many of fans out there who think this is their best hope.

Ultimately, this might just be talk. Given the unbalanced schedule in which teams play more games inside their division than outside, chances are still good that a 90-win team will emerge, even if that team isn't a truly great team.

Since baseball went to a three-division format, however, several teams have won divisions with fewer than 90 victories. Houston took the NL Central in 1997 with as few as 84 wins.

Furthermore, a sub-.500 champion is possible. In fact, it was only 10 years ago that we had one. ...

Tonight's Game

* * *

Tidbits from the Dodger press notes:

The Dodgers are 18-11 when they score first, 15-21 when they don't.

They have been outscored in the first two innings this season, 83-59. That includes one particular game in Cincinnati.

The Dodgers won five games of their first 14 games in their last at-bat. In the next 51 games, they won two in their last at-bat.

* * *

Colorado has returned Rule 5 pick Matt Merricks to the Dodger system, also according to the team's press notes. Merricks has been injured most of the season.

Top Dodger draft pick Luke Hochevar is pitching for Tennessee right now in the opening game of the College World Series.

Hochevar's last start

Tonight's Game

* * *

Olmedo Saenz has matched his at-bats total from 2004. In his Dodger career, he has 15 home runs in 222 at-bats.

He had eight home runs and one double last season; this year he has seven home runs and 10 doubles.

* * *

In his last start, Royals pitcher Zack Greinke allowed 217 runs before being removed from the game. Look for him to bounce back tonight.

Andy LaRoche is headed for Jacksonville, to play alongside Joel Guzman, who is headed back to shortstop after a hole-plugging sojourn at third base, according to Baseball America:

Jacksonville has more help on the way, too, as third baseman Andy LaRoche's assault on the Florida State League record book has ended after the Dodgers promoted him. He batted .333-21-51 in 249 at-bats for high Class A Vero Beach. The promotion should lead to Guzman sliding back over to shortstop, after he had filled in at third base for the injured Brian Sprout.

It isn't just the Dodgers, and it isn't just the National League West. Mediocrity, or worse, has gripped practically the entire National League.

Projected Wins/Team
102 St. Louis
96 Washington
90 San Diego
88 Philadelphia
86 Chicago
85 Florida
85 Arizona
84 Los Angeles
82 Atlanta
80 New York
77 Pittsburgh
72 Milwaukee
67 San Francisco
66 Houston
65 Cincinnati
54 Colorado

Who do you like in this bunch? Perhaps the Cubs have the wild card edge right now - they're doing okay and getting healthier. On the other hand, they have to play St. Louis 14 more times this season.

Among the challengers to the Cardinals, if April was the Dodgers' month and May was the Padres', June has become the Washington Nationals. Like their two predecessors, however, it wouldn't shock me if the Nationals fell on hard times a month from now.

Philadelphia may well prove my theory that Larry Bowa was the problem all along and pass Washington. I still sort of like the Mets as a big-city underdog, and for all of their problems, I still don't count out the Marlins (though I've been ready to count out Atlanta, and Arizona, for a while).

The Dodgers haven't really played great baseball for two months now, yet there they are in the thick of it. I'm like the rest of you: I want the team that wins to be a good team. But so far, four good teams haven't been revealed.

In some ways, it feels like the real season hasn't even started, and that it may not start until after the trading deadline.

Two more Variety articles by me arrive this morning: a companion piece of sorts (to last week's Ellen Pompeo story) on Grey's Anatomy ...

Is it possible that one of the breakout hits from last season reminds us that high school never really ends?

ABC drama "Grey's Anatomy" takes place in a world of surgical interns requiring as much grown-up responsibility as any other. Yet its principal insight might be that you don't forsake juvenile insecurity, pettiness, dreams or desires just because you can put a "Dr." ahead of your name. ...

and a longer piece, on the success that new one-hour shows from last season found in breaking away from tired formulas ...

Like its feline siblings, the copycat TV series seems to have nine lives. But the 2004-05 television season might have shown the copycat a sneak preview of its mortality.

No fewer than six one-hour programs debuted to some combination of critical and popular triumph last season, and if there was one unifying reason among the group, it was that they each offered something altogether new.

Originality alone doesn't guarantee success, but among the dramas and dramedies, it is a refreshingly good bet. ...

* * *

Meanwhile, we did indeed celebrate the opening of Tutankhamun and the Golden Age of the Pharaohs at LACMA on Wednesday. I walked through the exhibition during the press preview and it really was quite something.

I say this with no standing as a King Tut buff - that's why you don't see me blogging Tut Thoughts anywhere. But the exhibition is really striking, aesthetically, historically and culturally. I hope you can come see it. It's well worth the extra price of admission - which is going to support preservation of these treasures in Egypt, isn't much relative to other events in Los Angeles, and is discounted on weekdays and for children, seniors and LACMA members. (There is also a complementary interactive children's exhibition, Pharaoh's World, which is free.)

You know what this is?

000 100 000 - 1
100 020 00x - 3

Or this?

101 000 000 - 2
200 010 00x - 3

This is not liking a girl on first glance, discovering as you go that she has substance and some nice qualities - and then realizing, after it's too late, that you're too shallow for her anyway.

Tonight's Game

* * *

This isn't exactly like watching sluggers chase Hank Aaron's home run record, but it still fascinates me a bit.

In 1968, Jim Hines became the first non-superhero to run 100 meters in fewer than 10 seconds. In 37 years, the record has dropped an additional 22 hundreths.

For 14 years, 9.99 reigned. In the 15th year, 1983, Calvin Smith dropped it 0.06 to 9.93.

At 20 years, it had dropped by 0.07, thanks to Ca